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At least 847 records · Page 47
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Electrical Substation Configuration Effect on Substation Reliability

The nation’s electrical grid must be reliable because of its critical role in the economy, defense, and security of the nation. Many common tasks and industrial operations rely on proper electrical power distribution. In the design of new bus systems or evaluation of existing bus systems, the type of bus configuration affects the risk, reliability, maintenance, and cost of the system. This work utilizes Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) to perform a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) based sensitivity study on the reliability of substations with differing bus configurations. This study examines single bus, main and transfer, breaker and a half, double bus/double breaker, and ring bus configurations applied to busses of varying number of lines. The case variances, methods, and rankings presented can provide a guide for bus configuration for future electrical grid design and analysis.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Polynomial Chaos Surrogate Construction for Random Fields with Parametric Uncertainty

Engineering and applied science rely on computational experiments to rigorously study physical systems. The mathematical models used to probe these systems are highly complex, and sampling-intensive studies often require prohibitively many simulations for acceptable accuracy. Surrogate models provide a means of circumventing the high computational expense of sampling such complex models. In particular, polynomial chaos expansions (PCEs) have been successfully used for uncertainty quantification studies of deterministic models where the dominant source of uncertainty is parametric. We discuss an extension to conventional PCE surrogate modeling to enable surrogate construction for stochastic computational models that have intrinsic noise in addition to parametric uncertainty. We develop a PCE surrogate on a joint space of intrinsic and parametric uncertainty, enabled by Rosenblatt transformations, which are evaluated via kernel density estimation of the associated conditional cumulative distributions. Furthermore, we extend the construction to random field data via the Karhunen–Loève expansion. We then take advantage of closed-form solutions for computing PCE Sobol indices to perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model which quantifies the intrinsic noise contribution to the overall model output variance. Additionally, the resulting joint PCE is generative in the sense that it allows generating random realizations at any input parameter setting that are statistically approximately equivalent to realizations from the underlying stochastic model. The method is demonstrated on a chemical catalysis example model and a synthetic example controlled by a parameter that enables a switch from unimodal to bimodal response distributions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Towards retrieving critical relative humidity from ground-based remote sensing observations

Nearly all parameterisations of large-scale cloud require the specification of the critical relative humidity (RHcrit). This is the gridbox-mean relative humidity at which the subgrid fluctuations in temperature and water vapour become so large that part of a subsaturated gridbox becomes saturated and cloud starts to form. Until recently, the lack of high-resolution observations of temperature and moisture variability has hindered a reasonable estimate of the RHcrit from observations. However, with the advent of ground-based measurements from Raman lidar, it becomes possible to obtain long records of temperature and moisture (co-)variances with sub-minute sample rates. Lidar observations are inherently noisy and any analysis of higher-order moments will be very dependent on the ability to quantify and remove this noise. We present an exporatory study aimed at understanding whether current noise levels of lidar-retrieved temperature and water vapour are sufficient to obtain a reasonable estimate of the RHcrit. We show that vertical profiles of RHcrit can be derived for a gridbox length of up to about 30 km (120) with an uncertainty of about 4 % (2 %). RHcrit tends to be smallest near the scale height and seems to be fairly insensitive to the horizontal grid spacing at the scales investigated here (30 - 120 km). However, larger sensitivity was found to the vertical grid spacing. As the grid spacing decreases from 400 to 100 m, RHcrit is observed to increase by about 6 %, which is more than the uncertainty in the RHcrit retrievals.

Van Weverberg, Kwinten↗
DOE OSTI2024

Harnessing graph convolutional neural networks for identification of glassy states in metallic glasses

Graph Convolutional Neural Networks (GCNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for analyzing materials. In this study, we employ GCNNs to examine structural characteristics of CuZr metallic glasses (MGs) and identify their states. We use molecular dynamics to simulate the quenching process of CuZr, using cooling rates ranging from 10 9 to 10 15 K/s, to produce six unique glassy states. For each state, we create a dataset comprising 1,800 distinct samples. We evaluate the effectiveness of various GCNNs, including Graph Attention Neural Network (GANN), Graph Sample and AggreGatE (GraphSAGE), Graph Isomorphism Network (GIN), and Relational Graph Convolutional Neural Network (RGCN). GANN and GraphSAGE demonstrate comparable performance, achieving an overall accuracy of 81% in classifying the MG states. Furthermore, these results underscore the potential of GCNNs to detect subtle structural variances in disordered materials and point to broader application of deep learning in the analysis of MGs and other amorphous substances.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo Dropout Uncertainty Quantification of Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder Anomaly Detection in a Liquid Sodium Cold Trap

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors, such as sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt–cooled reactors (MSCRs), require coolant purification systems to prevent fluid contamination and local freezing that can lead to plugging. Liquid sodium purification can be achieved with a cold trap, where the sodium temperature is reduced to a near-freezing point to precipitate out impurities. Automation of monitoring of the cold trap performance with machine learning algorithms can aid in early detection of incipient anomalies. An efficient approach to loss-of-coolant–type anomaly detection in a cold trap monitored with more than two dozen thermal-hydraulic sensors consists of a long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder. This work develops the uncertainty quantification of the LSTM autoencoder performance for cold trap anomaly detection using the Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method. The MC dropout methodology creates a distribution of sister distributions that all slightly differ from each other because of random neurons being turned off for testing. The variances of the sister network distributions are used to make an uncertainty interval. Our analysis shows that the uncertainty in the autoencoder performance is largest near the peak of the anomaly signal. Using the MC dropout method, we investigate the uncertainty in the anomaly detection with missing sensor inputs. This capability allows the reactor operator to evaluate resilience of the anomaly detection system and to make informed decisions about continuity of operation in the event of sensor failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Turbulence and Cloudiness in Cumulus-Topped Marine Boundary Layers

Turbulence and cloudiness in cumulus-topped marine boundary layers are studied using data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site. The analysis includes eight periods of nonprecipitating shallow cumulus clouds, spanning 141 h and encompassing 603 individual clouds. On average, the cumulus had bases at 558 m, were 99 m thick, had a chord length of 500 m, and exhibited an hourly base-layer cloudiness of 12%. Changes in cloud fraction were primarily driven by variations in cloud number not chord length. High-resolution Doppler lidar and cloud radar observations were used to estimate updraft and downdraft mass fluxes in the cumulus base layer under both clear and cloudy regions. Cloudy updrafts contributed only ∼23% of the total updraft mass flux at cloud base, indicating that most upward mass flux originated from clear-air eddies. Updraft strength, rather than updraft fraction, was found to predominantly control both clear and cloudy updraft mass fluxes. Cloud-base cloudiness strongly correlated with cloudy updraft mass flux but showed negligible correlation with clear-air updraft mass flux. Clear-air downdraft mass flux exhibited a strong relationship with the ratio of surface buoyancy to inversion strength. Mesoscale analysis revealed that moist patches had greater cloudiness, updraft mass flux, and vertical velocity variance compared to dry patches. Additionally, mesoscale base-layer cloud fraction was highly and significantly correlated with cloudy updraft mass flux in both dry and moist environments. Results presented herein have implications for cumulus parameterization development along with climatological and model evaluation studies conducted at the ENA site.

cumulus clouds↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of a Class of Simple and Effective Uncertainty Methods for Sparse Samples of Random Variables and Functions

When very few samples of a random quantity are available from a source distribution of unknown shape, it is usually not possible to accurately infer the exact distribution from which the data samples come. Under-estimation of important quantities such as response variance and failure probabilities can result. For many engineering purposes, including design and risk analysis, we attempt to avoid under-estimation with a strategy to conservatively estimate (bound) these types of quantities -- without being overly conservative -- when only a few samples of a random quantity are available from model predictions or replicate experiments. This report examines a class of related sparse-data uncertainty representation and inference approaches that are relatively simple, inexpensive, and effective. Tradeoffs between the methods' conservatism, reliability, and risk versus number of data samples (cost) are quantified with multi-attribute metrics use d to assess method performance for conservative estimation of two representative quantities: central 95% of response; and 10 -4 probability of exceeding a response threshold in a tail of the distribution. Each method's performance is characterized with 10,000 random trials on a large number of diverse and challenging distributions. The best method and number of samples to use in a given circumstance depends on the uncertainty quantity to be estimated, the PDF character, and the desired reliability of bounding the true value. On the basis of this large data base and study, a strategy is proposed for selecting the method and number of samples for attaining reasonable credibility levels in bounding these types of quantities when sparse samples of random variables or functions are available from experiments or simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

Synchronization using pulsed edge tracking in optical PPM communication system

A pulse position modulated (PPM) optical communication system using narrow pulses of light for data transmission requires accurate time synchronization between transmitter and receiver. The presence of signal energy in the form of optical pulses suggests the use of a pulse edge tracking method of maintaining the necessary timing. The edge tracking operation in a binary PPM system is examined, taking into account the quantum nature of the optical transmissions. Consideration is given first to pure synchronization using a periodic pulsed intensity, then extended to the case where position modulation is present and auxiliary bit decisioning is needed to aid the tracking operation. Performance analysis is made in terms of timing error and its associated statistics. Timing error variances are shown as a function of system signal to noise ratio.

Gagliardi, R.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Jovian winds from Voyager 2. I - Zonal mean circulation

Independent measurements of Jovian cloud motions confirm previously published results on the general structure of Jupiter's zonal mean circulation. The new results are based on Voyager 2 images and measurement techniques which are different from those used in previous studies. The latitudes of the zonal jets agree with previous results, but there are some differences in the measured speed of the jets which exceed uncertainty estimates. These differences may be due to differences in sampling strategies. The structure of the zonal mean meridional velocity profile has still not been clearly resolved: mean meridional velocities generally differ from zero by no more than their estimated uncertainty. An analysis of successive measurements of the same cloud targets shows that most of the variance of individual velocity measurements is due to true variability of the winds.

Limaye, S. S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Application of spatial Poisson process models to air mass thunderstorm rainfall

Eight years of summer storm rainfall observations from 93 stations in and around the 154 sq km Walnut Gulch catchment of the Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, in Arizona are processed to yield the total station depths of 428 storms. Statistical analysis of these random fields yields the first two moments, the spatial correlation and variance functions, and the spatial distribution of total rainfall for each storm. The absolute and relative worth of three Poisson models are evaluated by comparing their prediction of the spatial distribution of storm rainfall with observations from the second half of the sample. The effect of interstorm parameter variation is examined.

Eagleson, P. S.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Dynamic Density: An Air Traffic Management Metric

The definition of a metric of air traffic controller workload based on air traffic characteristics is essential to the development of both air traffic management automation and air traffic procedures. Dynamic density is a proposed concept for a metric that includes both traffic density (a count of aircraft in a volume of airspace) and traffic complexity (a measure of the complexity of the air traffic in a volume of airspace). It was hypothesized that a metric that includes terms that capture air traffic complexity will be a better measure of air traffic controller workload than current measures based only on traffic density. A weighted linear dynamic density function was developed and validated operationally. The proposed dynamic density function includes a traffic density term and eight traffic complexity terms. A unit-weighted dynamic density function was able to account for an average of 22% of the variance in observed controller activity not accounted for by traffic density alone. A comparative analysis of unit weights, subjective weights, and regression weights for the terms in the dynamic density equation was conducted. The best predictor of controller activity was the dynamic density equation with regression-weighted complexity terms.

Laudeman, I. V.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Motion of the MMS Spacecraft Relative to the Magnetic Reconnection Structure Observed on 16 October 2015 at 1307 UT

We analyze a magnetopause crossing by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft at 1307 UT on 16 October 2016 that showed features of electron-scale reconnection. For this event, we find orthonormal LMN coordinates from the magnetic field, with N and L varying respectively along the maximum gradient and maximum variance directions. We find the motion along N from the Spatio-Temporal Difference analysis and motion along L from measured particle velocities. We locate the position of the magnetic X point, finding that MMS-4 passed within about 1A km from the X point and that MMS-3 and MMS-2 passed within about 1.7 km and 2.4 km, respectively, from the position of maximum out of plane current.

Denton, R. E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Aggregate Risk Tool for Human Space Flight

This project utilized Data fusion capabilities developed from the 2020-2022 Information Fusion (IFDA) IRAD to enhance functionality of a Human Spaceflight (HSF) Aggregate Risk Product developed by the JSC Flight Safety Office. The tool compiles and presents risk data from multiple Program and Commercial Provider vehicles to provide a holistic assessment of residual risk to Program Managers and Technical Authorities prior to HSF Launches. The aggregation or coupling of risks from multiple sources (Examples: PRA, variances, anomaly data bases, Program Risk Management data bases, technical review board minutes, Hazard Analysis, etc.) when analyzed, identify potential areas of elevated risk in components, systems or mission phases that would otherwise be undetected by nonintegrated program risk management tools and possesses.

Patrick Huckaby↗
DOE OSTI2025

Measurement of Parity-Violating Modes of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 Luminous Red Galaxies' 4-Point Correlation Function

Here we report the first measurement of the parity-violating (PV) 4-Point Correlation Function (4PCF) of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument's Year 1 Luminous Red Galaxy (DESI Y1 LRG) sample, motivated by the potential detection of the PV 4PCF in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (SDSS BOSS) galaxies. In our auto-correlation ("auto") analysis, we find a statistically significant excess of the PV signal compared to mocks without any PV, at 4-10$σ$ depending on details of the analysis. This could arise either from genuine PV or from an underestimation of the variance in the mocks; it is unlikely to arise, at the signal level, from a systematic. We then cross-correlate ("cross") the putative PV signal between different, independent patches of sky, and there find no detection of parity violation. The two measurements are in significant tension: while the cross has somewhat larger error bars than the auto, this is not sufficient to explain the discrepancy. We thus present the current work as an intriguing addition to the PV work on BOSS and as motivation for exploring further the relationship between the auto and cross PV 4PCF analyses.

Slepian, Zachary [Florida U.]↗
DOE OSTI2015

EFFECT OF COHERENT STRUCTURES ON ENERGETIC PARTICLE INTENSITY IN THE SOLAR WIND AT 1 AU

We present results from an analysis of Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) observations of energetic particles in the 0.047–4.78 MeV range associated with shocks and discontinuities in the solar wind. Previous work found a strong correlation between coherent structures and energetic particles measured by ACE/EPAM. Coherent structures are identified using the Partial Variance of Increments (PVI) method, which is essentially a normalized vector increment. The correlation was based on a superposed epoch analysis using over 12 years of data. Here, we examine many individual high-PVI events to better understand this association emphasizing intervals selected from data with shock neighborhoods removed. We find that in many cases the local maximum in PVI is in a region of rising or falling energetic particle intensity, which suggests that magnetic discontinuities may act as barriers inhibiting the motion of energetic particles across them.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Accurate determination of genotypic variance of cell wall characteristics of a Populus trichocarpa pedigree using high-throughput pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry

Abstract Background Pyrolysis-molecular beam mass spectrometry (py-MBMS) analysis of a pedigree of Populus trichocarpa was performed to study the phenotypic plasticity and heritability of lignin content and lignin monomer composition. Instrumental and microspatial environmental variability were observed in the spectral features and corrected to reveal underlying genetic variance of biomass composition. Results Lignin-derived ions (including m/z 124, 154, 168, 194, 210 and others) were highly impacted by microspatial environmental variation which demonstrates phenotypic plasticity of lignin composition in Populus trichocarpa biomass. Broad-sense heritability of lignin composition after correcting for microspatial and instrumental variation was determined to be H 2 = 0.56 based on py-MBMS ions known to derive from lignin. Heritability of lignin monomeric syringyl/guaiacyl ratio ( S / G ) was H 2 = 0.81. Broad-sense heritability was also high (up to H 2 = 0.79) for ions derived from other components of the biomass including phenolics (e.g., salicylates) and C5 sugars (e.g., xylose). Lignin and phenolic ion abundances were primarily driven by maternal effects, and paternal effects were either similar or stronger for the most heritable carbohydrate-derived ions. Conclusions We have shown that many biopolymer-derived ions from py-MBMS show substantial phenotypic plasticity in response to microenvironmental variation in plantations. Nevertheless, broad-sense heritability for biomass composition can be quite high after correcting for spatial environmental variation. This work outlines the importance in accounting for instrumental and microspatial environmental variation in biomass composition data for applications in heritability measurements and genomic selection for breeding poplar for renewable fuels and materials.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRS1979

Seasonal and interannual variations in total ozone revealed by the Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet experiment

The first 2 years of backscattered ultraviolet (BUV) ozone data from the Nimbus 4 spacecraft have been processed to a more refined level. The seasonal variations of total ozone for the period April 1970 to April 1972 are described using daily means for 10 deg latitude zones and a time-latitude cross section. In addition, the BUV data are compared with analyzed Dobson data and with infrared interferometer spectrometer data also obtained from the Nimbus 4 spacecraft. A harmonic analysis was performed on the daily zonal means. Amplitudes, days of peak ozone values, and percentage of variance have been computed for the annual and semiannual waves and for higher harmonics of an annual period for the 2 years. Asymmetries are found in the annual waves in the two hemispheres, with a subtle interannual difference which may be due to changes in the general circulation. A significant semiannual component is detected in the tropics for the first year. This component appears to result from influences of the annual waves in the two hemispheres. A search for shorter periods using the harmonic analysis revealed no periodicity whose amplitude was higher than the noise level.

Hilsenrath, E.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Technical Note: Statistical dependences between channels in radiochromic film readings. Implications in multichannel dosimetry

Purpose: This note studies the statistical relationships between color channels in radiochromic film readings with flatbed scanners. The same relationships are studied for noise. Finally, their implications for multichannel film dosimetry are discussed. Methods: Radiochromic films exposed to wedged fields of 6 MV energy were read in a flatbed scanner. The joint histograms of pairs of color channels were used to obtain the joint and conditional probability density functions between channels. Then, the conditional expectations and variances of one channel given another channel were obtained. Noise was extracted from film readings by means of a multiresolution analysis. Two different dose ranges were analyzed, the first one ranging from 112 to 473 cGy and the second one from 52 to 1290 cGy. Results: For the smallest dose range, the conditional expectations of one channel given another channel can be approximated by linear functions, while the conditional variances are fairly constant. The slopes of the linear relationships between channels can be used to simplify the expression that estimates the dose by means of the multichannel method. The slopes of the linear relationships between each channel and the red one can also be interpreted as weights in the final contribution to dose estimation. However, for the largest dose range, the conditional expectations of one channel given another channel are no longer linear functions. Finally, noises in different channels were found to correlate weakly. Conclusions: Signals present in different channels of radiochromic film readings show a strong statistical dependence. By contrast, noise correlates weakly between channels. For the smallest dose range analyzed, the linear behavior between the conditional expectation of one channel given another channel can be used to simplify calculations in multichannel film dosimetry.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗