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At least 847 records · Page 47

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

On Defense Strategies for Recursive System of Systems Using Aggregated Correlations

We consider a class of Recursive System of Systems (RSoS), wherein systems are recursively defined and the basic systems at finest level are composed of discrete cyber and physical components. This formulation captures the models of systems that are adaptively refined to account for their varied structure, such as sites of a heterogenous distributed computing infrastructure. The components can be disrupted by cyber of physical means, and can also be suitably reinforced to survive the attacks. We characterize the disruptions at each level of recursion using aggregate failure correlation functions that specify the conditional failure probability of RSoS given the failure of an individual system at that level. At finest levels, the survival probabilities of basic systems satisfy simple product-form, first order differential conditions using the multiplier functions, which generalize conditions based on contest success functions and statistical independence of component survival probabilities. We formulate the problem of ensuring the performance of RSoS as a game between an attacker and a provider, each with a utility function composed of a survival probability term and a cost term, both expressed in terms of the number of basic system components attacked and reinforced. We derive sensitivity functions at Nash Equilibrium that highlight the dependence of survival probabilities of systems on cost terms, correlation functions, and their partial derivatives. We apply these results to a simplified model of distributed high-performance computing infrastructures.

Rao, Nageswara↗

Monthly Quality-filtered Aggregation of NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), Version 5

This dataset contains gridded monthly Leaf Area Index (LAI) derived from the daily NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR), Version 5. This data record spans from 1981 to 2018 using data from eight NOAA polar orbiting satellites: NOAA-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18 and -19. The data are projected on a 0.05 degree x 0.05 degree global grid, as in the original CDR. The original CDR is one of the Land Surface CDR Version 5 products produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the University of Maryland (UMD), which is accompanied by algorithm documentation, data flow diagram and source code for the NOAA CDR Program. This dataset is in the netCDF-4 file format following ACDD and CF Conventions. This dataset has applied quality assurance information to only include "OK" data from the original CDR in the monthly aggregation.

Vermote, Eric [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (G↗

Monthly Quality-filtered Aggregation of NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR (Version 5) and VIIRS (Version 1) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR)

This dataset contains gridded monthly Leaf Area Index (LAI) derived from the daily NOAA Climate Data Record (CDR) of AVHRR (Version 5) and VIIRS (Version 1) Leaf Area Index (LAI) and Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR). This data record spans from 1981 to 2024 using data from NOAA polar orbiting satellites: NOAA-7, -9, -11, -14, -16, -17, -18, -19 and S-NPP. The data are projected on a 0.05 degree x 0.05 degree global grid, as in the original CDR. The original CDR is one of the Land Surface CDR products produced by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and the University of Maryland (UMD), which is accompanied by algorithm documentation, data flow diagram and source code for the NOAA CDR Program. This dataset is in the netCDF-4 file format following ACDD and CF Conventions. This dataset has applied quality assurance information to only include "OK" data from the original CDR in the monthly aggregation.

Vermote, Eric [NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (G↗

Leveraging Optimal Sparse Sensor Placement to Aggregate a Network of Digital Twins for Nuclear Subsystems

Nuclear power plants (NPPs) require continuous monitoring of various systems, structures, and components to ensure safe and efficient operations. The critical safety testing of new fuel compositions and the analysis of the effects of power transients on core temperatures can be achieved through modeling and simulations. They capture the dynamics of the physical phenomenon associated with failure modes and facilitate the creation of digital twins (DTs). Accurate reconstruction of fields of interest (e.g., temperature, pressure, velocity) from sensor measurements is crucial to establish a two-way communication between physical experiments and models. Sensor placement is highly constrained in most nuclear subsystems due to challenging operating conditions and inherent spatial limitations. This study develops optimized data-driven sensor placements for full-field reconstruction within reactor and steam generator subsystems of NPPs. Optimized constrained sensors reconstruct field of interest within a tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel irradiation experiment, a lumped parameter model of a nuclear fuel test rod and a steam generator. The optimization procedure leverages reduced-order models of flow physics to provide a highly accurate full-field reconstruction of responses of interest, noise-induced uncertainty quantification and physically feasible sensor locations. Accurate sensor-based reconstructions establish a foundation for the digital twinning of subsystems, culminating in a comprehensive DT aggregate of an NPP.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Use of a 360-Degree Underwater Camera to Characterize Artificial Reef and Fish Aggregating Effects around Marine Energy Devices

Marine energy devices must be attached to the seafloor by their foundations, pilings, or anchors, and will have other parts in the water column like the devices themselves, mooring lines, and power export cables running along the seafloor. The installation and presence of these artificial structures will create physical changes that can disrupt or create new habitats, and potentially alter the behavior of mobile organisms such as fish around a device by attracting them to these new artificial reefs and fish aggregating devices. In this study, we tested a new approach for monitoring fish activity around a marine energy device anchor: a 360-degree underwater camera to keep the target (a wave energy converter’s anchor) in the field of view of the camera. The camera was deployed in three configurations (hand-held, tripod, video lander) at sites with different hydrodynamics and underwater visibilities. The video lander was the best configuration: very stable, versatile, and easy to handle. The 360-degree field of view enabled observing and counting fishes, which were more abundant at dusk than dawn or noon, around the anchor. Despite remaining challenges, 360-degree cameras are useful tools for monitoring animal interactions with marine energy devices.

360-degree camera↗

A consistent dataset for the net income distribution for 190 countries and aggregated to 32 geographical regions from 1958 to 2015

Abstract. Data on income distributions within and across countries are becoming increasingly important for informing analysis of income inequality and understanding the distributional consequences of climate change. While datasets on income distribution collected from household surveys are available for multiple countries, these datasets often do not represent the same concept of inequality (or income concept) and therefore make comparisons across countries, over time and across datasets difficult. Here, we present a consistent dataset of income distributions across 190 countries from 1958 to 2015 measured in terms of net income. We complement the observed values in this dataset with values imputed from a summary measure of the income distribution, specifically the Gini coefficient. For the imputation, we use a recently developed nonparametric principal-component-based approach that shows an excellent fit to data on income distributions compared to other approaches. We also present another version of this dataset aggregated from the country level to 32 geographical regions. Our dataset is developed for the purpose of calibrating models such as integrated human–Earth system models with detailed data on income distributions. This dataset will enable more robust analysis of income distribution at multiple scales. The latest version of our data are available on Zenodo: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7093997 (Narayan et al., 2022b).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Contact thermal conductivity in lunar aggregates.

The contribution of the contact conductivity to the thermal conductivity in aggregates is found to depend on pressure with an exponent greater than 1/3 and, for a specific model with an exponent of 3/5, when the particle packing is irregular. A lunar thermal conductivity profile near the surface, including a term involving depth to the 3/5 power, is considered.

Pilbeam, C. C.↗

Elastic properties of plagioclase aggregates and seismic velocities in the moon

The compressional velocities of Apollo 16 gabbroic anorthosites in which the cracks have been closed match the seismic velocity of 7 km/sec in the 25 to 65 km depth region of the moon beneath the Imbrium Basin. The intrinsic velocities of plagioclase aggregates indicate that a velocity of 7 km/sec in a highly calcic gabbroic anorthosite is consistent only with a very small pyroxene component. Because mare basalts and gabbroic-anorthosites both have intrinsic velocities of 7 km/sec, the laboratory velocity data do not require a compositional change from basalt to anorthosite at the 25 km discontinuity. The laboratory velocity data only imply that the 25 km seismic discontinuity is one of microcrack density. The physical rather than the chemical or mineralogical state is constrained.

Wang, H.↗

Origin and characteristics of excess Fe metal in lunar glass welded aggregates

We show that the characteristic features of lunar glass welded aggregates including their irregular shapes, vesicularity, and content of submicron Fe metal in the welding glass can be explained by a model in which they are predominantly formed by micrometeorite impacts into the solar wind saturated topmost surface of the regolith. The Fe metal is reduced from silicates by the solar wind gases. Other possible mechanisms of Fe metal formation are discussed and shown to play at most minor roles. It is shown that surface tension forces control vesicularity and that the low gravity and high vacuum conditions prevailing on the moon are unimportant. Consequences of this surface tension control to possible lunar eruptive volcanism and to the Ar-40/Ar-39 dating of impact events are discussed.

Housley, R. M.↗

Decomposition-aggregation stability analysis of the spinning Skylab

Stability of an 11-th order linear model of the spinning Skylab is determined by the decomposition-aggregation method based upon the comparison principle and vector Liapunov functions. To reduce the inherent conservativeness of the method an optimization problem is formulated and resolved producing the optimum comparison system. The system provides the best estimate of the stability region of the important structural parameter - asymmetry in the boom settings.

Cuk, S. M.↗

Compartmentalization of amino acids in surfactant aggregates - Partitioning between water and aqueous micellar sodium dodecanoate and between hexane and dodecylammonium propionate trapped water in hexane

The partitioning of amino acids (glycine, alanine, leucine, phenylalanine, histidine, aspartic acid, glutamic acid, lysine, isoleucine, threonine, serine, valine, proline, arginine) in aqueous and nonaqueous micellar systems was studied experimentally. Partitioning from neat hexane into dodecylammonium propionate trapped water in hexane was found to be dependent on both electrostatic and hydrophobic interactions, which implies that the interior of dodecylammonium propionate aggregates is negatively charged and is capable of hydrogen bonding in addition to providing a hydrophobic environment. Unitary free energies of transfer of amino acid side chains from hexane to water were determined and solubilities of amino acids in neat hexane substantiated the amino acid hydrophobicity scale. The relevance of the experiments to prebiotic chemistry was examined.

Fendler, J. H.↗

Swarms: Optimum aggregations of spacecraft

Swarms are aggregations of spacecraft or elements of a space system which are cooperative in function, but physically isolated or only loosely connected. For some missions the swarm configuration may be optimum compared to a group of completely independent spacecraft or a complex rigidly integrated spacecraft or space platform. General features of swarms are induced by considering an ensemble of 26 swarms, examples ranging from Earth centered swarms for commercial application to swarms for exploring minor planets. A concept for a low altitude swarm as a substitute for a space platform is proposed and a preliminary design studied. The salient design feature is the web of tethers holding the 30 km swarm in a rigid two dimensional array in the orbital plane. A mathematical discussion and tutorial in tether technology and in some aspects of the distribution of services (mass, energy, and information to swarm elements) are included.

Mayer, H. L.↗

Software for the grouped optimal aggregation technique

The grouped optimal aggregation technique produces minimum variance, unbiased estimates of acreage and production for countries, zones (states), or any designated collection of acreage strata. It uses yield predictions, historical acreage information, and direct acreage estimate from satellite data. The acreage strata are grouped in such a way that the ratio model over historical acreage provides a smaller variance than if the model were applied to each individual stratum. An optimal weighting matrix based on historical acreages, provides the link between incomplete direct acreage estimates and the total, current acreage estimate.

Brown, P. M.↗