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Objectives and Progress on Ground Vibration Testing for the Ares Launch Vehicles

NASA has conducted dynamic tests on each of its major launch vehicles during the past 45 years. Each test has provided invaluable data to correlate and correct analytical models used to predict structural responses to differing dynamics for these vehicles. With both Saturn V and Space Shuttle, hardware changes were also required to the flight vehicles to ensure crew and vehicle safety. The Ares I IVGVT will undoubtedly provide similar valuable test data to support successful flights of the Constellation Program. The IVGVT will provide test determined natural frequencies, mode shapes and damping for the Ares I. This data will be used to support controls analysis by providing this test data to reduce uncertainty in the models. The value of this testing has been proven by past launch vehicle successes and failures. Performing dynamic testing on the Ares vehicles will provide confidence that the launch vehicles will be safe and successful in their missions. In addition, IVGVT will provide the following benefits for the Ares rockets: a) IVGVT data along with Ares development flights like Ares I-X, Ares I-Y, Ares I-X Prime, and Orion-1 or others will reduce the risk to the Orion-2 crew. IVGVT will permit anchoring the various analytical and operational models used in so many different aspects of Ares operations. b) IVGVT data will permit better understanding of the structural and GN&C margins of the spacecraft and may permit mass savings or expanded day-of-launch opportunities or fewer constraints to launch. c) Undoubtedly IVGVT will uncover some of the "unknown unknowns" so often seen in developing, launching, and flying new spacecraft vehicles and data from IVGVT may help prevent a loss of vehicle or crew. d) IVGVT also will be the first time Ares I flight-like hardware is transported, handled, rotated, mated, stacked, and integrated. e) Furthermore, handling and stacking the IVGVT launch vehicle stacks will be an opportunity to understand certain aspects of vehicle operability much better (for example, handling procedures, touch-labor time to accomplish tasks, access at interfaces, access to stage mating bolts, access to avionics boxes, access to the Interstage, GSE functionality, and many other important aspects of Ares I operability). All of these results will provide for better vehicle safety and better stewardship of national resources as NASA begins its next phase of human space exploration.

Tuma, Margaret L.↗

Bayesian Analysis of the Cosmic Microwave Background

There is a wealth of cosmological information encoded in the spatial power spectrum of temperature anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background! Experiments designed to map the microwave sky are returning a flood of data (time streams of instrument response as a beam is swept over the sky) at several different frequencies (from 30 to 900 GHz), all with different resolutions and noise properties. The resulting analysis challenge is to estimate, and quantify our uncertainty in, the spatial power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background given the complexities of "missing data", foreground emission, and complicated instrumental noise. Bayesian formulation of this problem allows consistent treatment of many complexities including complicated instrumental noise and foregrounds, and can be numerically implemented with Gibbs sampling. Gibbs sampling has now been validated as an efficient, statistically exact, and practically useful method for low-resolution (as demonstrated on WMAP 1 and 3 year temperature and polarization data). Continuing development for Planck - the goal is to exploit the unique capabilities of Gibbs sampling to directly propagate uncertainties in both foreground and instrument models to total uncertainty in cosmological parameters.

methods - statistical↗

The Outer Limits of Galaxy Clusters: Observations to the Virial Radius with Suzaku, XMM,and Chandra

The outskirts of galaxy clusters, near the virial radius, remain relatively unexplored territory and yet are vital to our understanding of cluster growth, structure, and mass. In this presentation, we show the first results from a program to constrain the sate of the outer intra-cluster medium (ICM) in a large sample of galaxy clusters, exploiting the strengths of three complementary X-ray observatories: Suzaku (low, stable background), XMM-Newton (high sensitivity),and Chandra (good spatial resolution). By carefully combining observations from the cluster core to beyond r200, we are able to identify and reduce systematic uncertainties that would impede our spatial and spectral analysis using a single telescope. Our sample comprises nine clusters at z is approximately 0.1-0.2 fully covered in azimuth to beyond r200, and our analysis indicates that the ICM is not in hydrostatic equilibrium in the cluster outskirts, where we see clear azimuthal variations in temperature and surface brightness. In one of the clusters, we are able to measure the diffuse X-ray emission well beyond r200, and we find that the entropy profile and the gas fraction are consistent with expectations from theory and numerical simulations. These results stand in contrast to recent studies which point to gas clumping in the outskirts; the extent to which differences of cluster environment or instrumental effects factor in this difference remains unclear. From a broader perspective, this project will produce a sizeable fiducial data set for detailed comparison with high-resolution numerical simulations.

Miller, Eric D.↗

A Computationally-Efficient Inverse Approach to Probabilistic Strain-Based Damage Diagnosis

This work presents a computationally-efficient inverse approach to probabilistic damage diagnosis. Given strain data at a limited number of measurement locations, Bayesian inference and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling are used to estimate probability distributions of the unknown location, size, and orientation of damage. Substantial computational speedup is obtained by replacing a three-dimensional finite element (FE) model with an efficient surrogate model. The approach is experimentally validated on cracked test specimens where full field strains are determined using digital image correlation (DIC). Access to full field DIC data allows for testing of different hypothetical sensor arrangements, facilitating the study of strain-based diagnosis effectiveness as the distance between damage and measurement locations increases. The ability of the framework to effectively perform both probabilistic damage localization and characterization in cracked plates is demonstrated and the impact of measurement location on uncertainty in the predictions is shown. Furthermore, the analysis time to produce these predictions is orders of magnitude less than a baseline Bayesian approach with the FE method by utilizing surrogate modeling and effective numerical sampling approaches.

Warner, James E.↗

Validation of High Speed Earth Atmospheric Entry Radiative Heating from 9.5 to 15.5 km/s

This paper presents an overview of the analysis and measurements of equilibrium radiation obtained in the NASA Ames Research Center's Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility as a part of recent testing aimed at reaching shock velocities up to 15.5 km/s. The goal of these experiments was to measure the level of radiation encountered during high speed Earth entry conditions, such as would be relevant for an asteroid, inter-planetary or lunar return mission. These experiments provide the first spectrally and spatially resolved data for high speed Earth entry and cover conditions ranging from 9.5 to 15.5 km/s at 13.3 and 26.6 Pa (0.1 and 0.2 Torr). The present analysis endeavors to provide a validation of shock tube radiation measurements and simulations at high speed conditions. A comprehensive comparison between the spectrally resolved absolute equilibrium radiance measured in EAST and the predictive tools, NEQAIR and HARA, is presented. In order to provide a more accurate representation of the agreement between the experimental and simulation results, the integrated value of radiance has been compared across four spectral regions (VUV, UV/Vis, Vis/NIR and IR) as a function of velocity. Results have generally shown excellent agreement between the two codes and EAST data for the Vis through IR spectral regions, however, discrepancies have been identified in the VUV and parts of the UV spectral regions. As a result of the analysis presented in this paper, an updated parametric uncertainty for high speed radiation in air has been evaluated to be [9.0%, -6.3%]. Furthermore, due to the nature of the radiating environment at these high shock speeds, initial calculations aimed at modeling phenomena that become more significant with increasing shock speed have been performed. These phenomena include analyzing the radiating species emitting ahead of the shock and the increased significance of radiative cooling mechanisms.

Equilibrium↗

Retrieval of Water Vapor Column Abundance and Aerosol Properties from ChemCam Passive Sky Spectroscopy

We derive water vapor column abundances and aerosol properties from Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) ChemCam passive mode observations of scattered sky light. This paper covers the methodology and initial results for water vapor and also provides preliminary results for aerosols. The data set presented here includes the results of 113 observations spanning from Mars Year 31 L(s) = 291 deg (March 30, 2013) to Mars Year 33 L(s) = 127 deg (March 24, 2016). Each ChemCam passive sky observation acquires spectra at two different elevation angles. We fit these spectra with a discrete-ordinates multiple scattering radiative transfer model, using the correlated-k approximation for gas absorption bands. The retrieval proceeds by first fitting the continuum of the ratio of the two elevation angles to solve for aerosol properties, and then fitting the continuum-removed ratio to solve for gas abundances. The final step of the retrieval makes use of the observed CO 2 absorptions and the known CO 2 abundance to correct the retrieved water vapor abundance for the effects of the vertical distribution of scattering aerosols and to derive an aerosol scale height parameter. Our water vapor results give water vapor column abundance with a precision of +/-0.6 precipitable microns and systematic errors no larger than +/-0.3 precipitable microns, assuming uniform vertical mixing. The ChemCam-retrieved water abundances show, with only a few exceptions, the same seasonal behavior and the same timing of seasonal minima and maxima as the TES, CRISM, and REMS-H data sets that we compare them to. However ChemCam-retrieved water abundances are generally lower than zonal and regional scale from-orbit water vapor data, while at the same time being significantly larger than pre-dawn REMS-H abundances. Pending further analysis of REMS-H volume mixing ratio uncertainties, the differences between ChemCam and REMS-H pre-dawn mixing ratios appear to be much too large to be explained by large scale circulations and thus they tend to support the hypothesis of substantial diurnal interactions of water vapor with the surface. Our preliminary aerosol results, meanwhile, show the expected seasonal pattern in dust particle size but also indicate a surprising interannual increase in water-ice cloud opacities.

Mcconnochie, Timothy H.↗

Modeling the Risk of U.S. Offshore Oil & Gas Exploration-Well Drilling, Commercial Nuclear Plants, and Human Spaceflight

Nuclear power, offshore oil & gas exploration, and human spaceflight all have high consequence potential if something goes wrong. Each has had at least one major incident that pointed to a need for improved risk assessment. Careful risk analysis is very important for technologies having complexity, uncertainty, and high consequence potential. All rely on multiple barriers/controls/redundancy to minimize risk. NRC (Nuclear Regulatory Commission) has moved towards risk informed regulation with Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) as a major input.

PRA↗

LOFTID Heat Flux Gauge Calibration: What is Truth?

The Low-Earth Orbit Flight Test of an Inflatable Decelerator (LOFTID) is a demonstration of Hypersonic Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerator (HIAD) technology, which may enable the delivery of heavy payloads to Mars, Venus, and Titan, as well as return to Earth. Unlike rigid aeroshells that are constrained by the size of the rocket’s shroud, inflatable aeroshells can be deployed to a much larger scale, thus allowing a spacecraft to begin its deceleration earlier and experience less heating. On LOFTID, there will be 4 total heat flux gauges (HFG) with a range of 70 W/cm2 and 1 radiometer with a range of 3 W/cm2, arranged as shown in Fig. 1. Both the radiometer and total HFGs are Schmidt-Boelter gauges purchased from an external vendor. Radiative calibrations were performed in-house at NASA Ames’ Sensors and TPS Advanced Research Laboratories (STAR Labs) before and after environmental testing to investigate how the testing affected the sensors' response. Additional rounds of radiative calibration at STAR Labs were also performed in order to investigate the large uncertainties associated with these tests. For example, a survey of multiple calibration facilities concluded that the uncertainty within a given facility was +/-3% [1]. An additional NIST study that calibrated heat flux gauges at 7 different facilities also found the variation in calibration coefficients to be up to ~3% within a given facility, but up to 15% between facilities, suggesting systematic differences between test setups [2]. Finally, the response of heat flux gauges to radiative versus convective heat flux has shown to differ by up to 20% [3],[4]. Because the heat flux gauges on LOFTID will predominantly experience convective heat flux during flight, a convective calibration study was performed at Boeing's Large-Core Arc Tunnel (LCAT) facility. Radiative Calibration Procedure The calibrations performed at STAR Labs utilize a quartz lamp bank (QLB) that provides a maximum heat flux of 50 W/cm2, which bounds the expected LOFTID flight environment. The calibration involves exposing a water-cooled Gardon gauge (reference) and then the unit-under-test (UUT) to 5 different heat fluxes multiple times for 10 seconds each, and then calculating a linear fit. The test setup is shown in Fig. 2. The total HFGs were calibrated at STAR Labs 3 times, denoted as STAR 1 (before environmental testing), STAR 2 (after protoflight vibration and thermal-vacuum testing), and STAR 3 (no change from previous test). All 8 flight-lot total HFGs showed a decrease in full-scale output from STAR 1 to STAR 2 by between 0.5% and 10. The first portion of this investigation was to determine whether the change could be due to differences in temperature between the two calibration runs. A typical linear fit to the calibration data was performed using Eq. 1 where q’ is the heat flux in W/cm2, c is the calibration coefficient, and mV is the sensor output. To account for temperature, the data were fit to a nonlinear function that included both the sensor output (mV) and the temperature from the thermocouple embedded inside the HFG near the surface (T): q'=mV/(c1* T + c0}. The residuals between the fits and the actual data points were calculated for every point, and proven to be much smaller for the temperature-compensated fits than for the linear fits for all sensors. An example is shown in Fig. 3. When the temperature-compensated fits from STAR 1 were applied to the STAR 2 data, the residuals did not improve, suggesting that the change in sensitivity between these two calibration runs was not due to temperature. A third round of calibration (STAR 3) was conducted to further address the temperature dependence of the total HFGs, and the resulting sensitivities matched closely to STAR 2 (within 2%). Temperature-compensated calibration curves were once again fit to the data. In this case, when the temperature-compensated fits from STAR 3 were applied to STAR 2 data, the residuals between the fits and STAR 2 data were much lower than the residuals due to the linear fits. This suggests that the changes seen between STAR 1 and STAR 2 were likely due to actual changes in the sensors caused by the environmental testing between the two calibrations. A modification of the original calibration process, in which the UUT was exposed to each heat flux for just 3 seconds (instead of 10) to reduce the temperature increase during the test, was additionally performed on several of the HFGs. In general, the sensitivities were 1-1.5% lower than from the 10-second tests, but the temperatures were also significantly lower. When the temperature-compensated fits from the 10-second tests were applied to the 3-second test data, the residuals were greatly improved than when just using the linear fits, further suggesting that the temperature-compensated fits may lead to better accuracy than the linear fits in flight. Convective Calibration The second portion of this study was to create a mapping between the radiative and convective calibration coefficients. The majority of the heating during flight will be convective, so it is important to understand how the HFG response differs under these conditions. However, there are no standardized methods for convective calibration [5]. Because the TPS aerothermal response models were validated at LCAT, the same facility was chosen for convective calibration of two of the total HFGs (Fig. 4). Preliminary results showed that the full-scale output was 3% and 8% higher in convective heat flux as compared to radiative heat flux. However, tunnel variation may have contributed to noise and uncertainty in the measurements, and more testing and analysis remains to be done. Scope of Presentation The presentation will include an overview of the changes seen in HFG calibration before and after environmental testing, differences between radiative and convective calibrations, the modeling work done to aid in understanding the sensor response to varying environments, and recommended future work.

H S Alpert↗

Robust Trajectory Design for Rendezvous in a Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit

Future NASA Artemis missions will require complex docking plans between the Orion capsule and Lunar Gateway that meet predetermined safety constraints while minimizing fuel usage and state uncertainty at rendezvous. In this paper, linear covariance analysis is applied to a first order relative form of Near-Rectilinear Halo Orbit dynamics to determine the nominal trajectories and state dispersions associated with various maneuver profiles in the Sun-referenced Local Vertical Local Horizontal reference frame of the lunar Gateway. These maneuver profiles are optimized using a particle swarm optimizer and direct search algorithm to find trajectories that satisfy approach corridor, free drift, velocity magnitude, under-burn, and maneuver transfer time safety constraints to 3-sigma certainty.

Linear Covariance Analysis↗

Integrated Modeling for Payload Test of the Roman Space Telescope

The Nancy Grace Roman Telescope (RST) is a NASA observatory designed to unravel the secrets of dark energy and dark matter, search for and image exoplanets, and explore many topics in infrared optics. Scheduled to launch in no earlier than October 2026, this 2.4 meter aperture telescope has a field of view 100 times greater than the Hubble Space Telescope. The mission is currently in its construction phase, where integrated modeling between thermal, structural, and optical models of the observatory is necessary to demonstrate science quality images over the range of operational parameters. This presentation discusses the most recent integrated modeling analysis cycle for Roman, including model correlation with our instrument level testing. We include a discussion on improved processes of the handling of the various flows of data between the modeling disciplines and discipline specific monte-carlo analysis predictions. We will finish with the predicted uncertainties and expected performance for our upcoming observatory alignment verification test using machine learning algorithms.

telescope↗

Analysis of AVHRR, CZCS and historical in situ data off the Oregon Coast

The original scientific objectives of this grant were to: (1) characterize the seasonal cycles and interannual variability for phytoplankton concentrations and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current using satellite data; and (2) to explore the spatial and temporal relationship between these variables and surface wind forcing. An additional methodological objective was to develop statistical methods for forming mean fields, which minimize the effects of random data gaps and errors in the irregularly sampled CZCS (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite data. A final task was to evaluate the level of uncertainty in the wind fields used for the statistical analysis. Funding in the first year included part of the cost of an image processing system to enable this and other projects to process and analyze satellite data. This report consists of summaries of the major projects carried out with all or partial support from this grant. The appendices include a list of papers and professional presentations supported by the grant, as well as reprints of the major papers and reports.

Strub, P. Ted↗

Robust control with structured perturbations

This semi-annual report describes continued progress on the research. Among several approaches in this area of research, our approach to the parametric uncertainties are being matured everyday. This approach deals with real parameter uncertainties which other techniques such as H (sup infinity) optimal control, micron analysis and synthesis, and l(sub 1) optimal control cannot deal. The primary assumption of this approach is that the mathematical models are well obtained so that the most of system uncertainties can be translated into parameter uncertainties of their linear system representations. These uncertainties may be due to modeling, nonlinearity of the physical system, some time-varying parameters, etc. In this report period of research, we are concentrating on implementing a computer aided analysis and design tool based on new results on parametric robust stability. This implementation will help us to reveal further details in this approach.

Keel, Leehyun↗

Measurements for liquid rocket engine performance code verification

The goal of the rocket engine performance code verification tests is to obtain the I sub sp with an accuracy of 0.25% or less. This needs to be done during the sequence of four related tests (two reactive and two hot gas simulation) to best utilize the loss separation technique recommended in this study. In addition to I sub sp, the measurements of the input and output parameters for the codes are needed. This study has shown two things in regard to obtaining the I sub sp uncertainty within the 0.25% target. First, this target is generally not being realized at the present time, and second, the instrumentation and testing technology does exist to obtain this 0.25% uncertainty goal. However, to achieve this goal will require carefully planned, designed, and conducted testing. In addition, the test-stand (or system) dynamics must be evaluated in the pre-test and post-test phases of the design of the experiment and data analysis, respectively always keeping in mind that a .25% overall uncertainty in I sub sp is targeted. A table gives the maximum allowable uncertainty required for obtaining I sub sp with 0.25% uncertainty, the currently-quoted instrument specification, and present test uncertainty for the parameters. In general, it appears that measurement of the mass flow parameter within the required uncertainty may be the most difficult.

Praharaj, Sarat C.↗

Detailed Evaluation of MODIS Fire Radiative Power Measurements

Satellite remote sensing is providing us tremendous opportunities to measure the fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP) from open biomass burning, which affects many vegetated regions of the world on a seasonal basis. Knowledge of the biomass burning characteristics and emission source strengths of different (particulate and gaseous) smoke constituents is one of the principal ingredients upon which the assessment, modeling, and forecasting of their distribution and impacts depend. This knowledge can be gained through accurate measurement of FRP, which has been shown to have a direct relationship with the rates of biomass consumption and emissions of major smoke constituents. Over the last decade or so, FRP has been routinely measured from space by both the MODIS sensors aboard the polar orbiting Terra and Aqua satellites, and the SEVIRI sensor aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite. During the last few years, FRP has been gaining recognition as an important parameter for facilitating the development of various scientific studies relating to the quantitative characterization of biomass burning and their emissions. Therefore, we are conducting a detailed analysis of the FRP products from MODIS to characterize the uncertainties associated with them, such as those due to the MODIS bow-tie effects and other factors, in order to establish their error budget for use in scientific research and applications. In this presentation, we will show preliminary results of the MODIS FRP data analysis, including comparisons with airborne measurements.

Ichoku, Charles↗

Development of response models for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) sensors. Part 3: ERBE scanner measurement accuracy analysis due to reduced housekeeping data

The accuracy of scanner measurements was evaluated when the sampling frequency of sensor housekeeping (HK) data was reduced from once every scan to once every eight scans. The resulting increase in uncertainty was greatest for sources with rapid or extreme temperature changes. This analysis focused on the mirror attenuator mosaic (MAM) baffle and plate and scanner radiometer baffle due to their relatively high temperature changes during solar calibrations. Since only solar simulator data were available, the solar temperatures were approximated on these components and the radiative and thermal gradients in the MAM baffle due to reflected sunlight. Of the two cases considered for the MAM plate and baffle temperatures, one uses temperatures obtained from the ground calibration. The other attempt uses temperatures computed from the MAM baffle model. This analysis shows that the heat input variations due largely to the solar radiance and irradiance during a scan cycle are small. It also demonstrates that reasonable intervals longer than the current HK data acquisition interval should not significantly affect the estimation of a radiation field in the sensor field-of-view.

Choi, Sang H.↗

Mission-Maps For Outbound Cislunar Transfer Trajectories

This study quantifies the robustness and sensitivity of an outbound cislunar trajectory for a lunar lander in the form of mission-maps, or topological maps that allows either a computer program or mission designer to intuitively optimize the placement of critical outbound correction burns from the derived sensitivity data. The non-linear multi-body dynamics are applied to generate an outbound cislunar reference profile used by a linear covariance analysis (LinCov) tool to compute the expected Δv and trajectory dispersions due to the initial state uncertainty, sensor errors, maneuver execution errors, and disturbance accelerations along the outbound cislunar profile. The rapid performance analysis capabilities of LinCov are complimented with parallel processing techniques to evaluate hundreds and thousands of different translational burn locations, placements, and targeting constraints to identify the combination that minimizes the total Δv usage (nominal plus 3σ Δv) and trajectory dispersions at lunar orbit insertion. This study utilizes a generalized reference targeting algorithm to quickly assess the integrated closed-loop GN&C system performance due to different targeting configurations and constraints. The resulting mission maps provide an intuitive insight to ascertain each trajectory correction maneuver’s (TCM) sensitivity to different burn times along an outbound cislunar trajectory and quickly identify desirable engineering tradeoffs when performing analysis on the number and placement of these burns that nominally zero. Multiple mission maps are generated for a variety of different performance parameters that allow engineers to visually identify optimal solutions for trajectory correction maneuver placements, the number of correction burns, and the targeting constraints for each burn.

GN&C↗

Are models of catalytic removal of O3 by HO(x) accurate? Constraints from in situ measurements of the OH to HO2 ratio

Measurements of the ratio OH/HO2, NO, O3, ClO, and BrO were obtained at altitudes from 15-20 km and latitudes from 15-60 deg N. A method is presented for interpreting the rates of chemical transformations that (1) are responsible for over half the ozone removal rate in the lower stratosphere via reactions of HO2; and (2) control the abundance of HO2 through coupling to nitrogen and halogen radicals. The results show our understanding of the chemical reactions controlling the partitioning of OH and HO2 is complete and accurate and that the potential effects of 'missing chemistry' are strickly constrained in the region of the atmosphere encompassed by the observations. The analysis demonstrates that the sensitivity of the ratio OH/HO2 to changes in NO is described to within 12% by current models. This reduces by more than a factor of 2 the effect of uncertainty in the coupling of hydrogen and nitrogen radicals on the analysis of the potential effects of perturbations to odd notrogen in the lower statosphere.

Cohen, R. C.↗