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NASA NTRS2023

Vibration Anomaly Indicator in UAVs in presence of Wind

One of the critical factors affecting flight safety of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is the amount of vibration they are exposed during a flight. For UAVs under remote operation, vehicle stabilization and navigation is typically achieved by estimating its attitude and position using onboard miniature sensors such as accelerometers, gyroscopes, and GPS via an onboard autopilot. Since precise control of the UAV relies heavily on the attitude sensing, the vibration levels need to be as low as possible in order to minimize the signal noise. Incorrect sensor data can lead to uncertain state estimation causing the multirotor to drift from its desired position. Moreover, high vibrations can induce faults in the safety-critical components of the UAV such as its on-board sensors, motors and propellers. Hence, it is important to monitor the vibration levels during a UAV flight. This paper specifically looks into effect of wind on the vibrations recorded by the autopilot system in an octocopter. Using data from experimental flights under varying wind conditions, we aim to classify between a nominal and anomalous vibration level and define a safety metric known as the Vibrational Anomaly Indicator (VAI) for small UAV systems. Further, we will study effect of high vibrations on the inertial measurement unit (IMU) of an octocopter under laboratory set-up and compute the VAI from IMU measurements. Results would demonstrate the utility of VAI as an health indicator for unmanned flights either in presence of winds or from degraded on-board IMU sensor.

Vibration↗

NASA NTRS2010

Fifty Years of Fluidic Injection for Jet Noise Reduction

The paper reviews 50 years of research investigating jet noise reduction through fluidic injection. Both aqueous and gaseous injection concepts for supersonic and subsonic jet exhausts are discussed. Aqueous injection reduces jet noise by reducing main jet temperature through evaporation and main jet velocity through momentum transfer between water droplets and the main jet. In the launch vehicle environment where large quantities of fluid do not have to be carried with the vehicle, water injection is very effective at reducing excess overpressures. For in-flight use, aqueous injection is problematic as most studies show that either large quantities of water or high injection pressures are required to achieve noise reduction. The most effective noise reduction injection systems require water pressures above 2000 kPa (290 psi) and water-to-mainjet mass flow rates above 10% to achieve overall sound pressure level reductions of roughly 6 dB in the peak jet noise direction. Injection at lower pressure (roughly 1034 kPa or 150 psi) has resulted in a 1.6 EPNdb reduction in effective perceived noise level. Gaseous injection reduces noise through jet plume modifications resulting from the introduction of streamwise vorticity in the main jet. In subsonic single-stream jets, air injection usually produces the largest overall sound pressure level reductions (roughly 2 dB) in the peak jet noise direction. In dual-stream jets, properly designed injection systems can reduce overall sound pressure levels and effective perceived noise levels but care must be taken to choose injector designs that limit sound pressure level increases at high frequencies. A reduction of 1.0 EPNdB has been achieved with injection into the fan and core streams. However, air injection into dual-stream subsonic jets has received little attention and the potential for noise reduction is uncertain at this time. For dual-stream supersonic jets, additional research needs to be conducted to determine if reductions can be achieved with injection pressures available from current aircraft engines. 1.

Henderson, Brenda↗

NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification for JPL Retrievals

We define the notions of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ), and place them in the context of retrievals of Earth science data. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the process of characterizing the uncertainty of a measurement system relative to the true, physical quantity it measures. UQ is needed when measurements are used for scientific inference, assimilated into models with other data, and used for decision-making and risk analysis. Many measurements come with measures of standard error and bias, but these uncertainty measures are often inaccurate, due to the operational need to assume crisp values for parameters which are in fact uncertain, as well as the failure of technical assumptions needed by operational error-estimation approaches. UQ provides a way to study which assumptions fail to hold, and a tool to improve the measurement. We describe a particular, broadly-applicable UQ setup that has been successful for JPL retrievals including OCO-2, and provide recommendations for furthering the UQ state of the practice at JPL.

Turmon, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2024

JWST Reveals CO Ice, Concentrated CO 2 Deposits, and Evidence for Carbonates Potentially Sourced From Ariel’s Interior

The Uranian moon Ariel exhibits a diversity of geologically young landforms, with a surface composition rich in CO 2 ice. The origin of CO 2 and other species, however, remains uncertain. We report observations of Ariel’s leading and trailing hemispheres, collected with NIRSpec (2.87–5.10 μm) on the James Webb Space Telescope. These data shed new light on Arielʼs spectral properties, revealing a double-lobed CO 2 ice scattering peak centered near 4.20 and 4.25 μm, with the 4.25 μm lobe possibly representing the largest CO 2 Fresnel peak yet observed in the solar system. A prominent 4.38 μm 13 CO 2 ice feature is also present, as is a 4.90 μm band that results from 12 CO 2 ice. The spectra reveal a 4.67 μm 12 CO ice band and a broad 4.02 μm band that might result from carbonate minerals. The data confirm that features associated with CO 2 and CO are notably stronger on Ariel’s trailing hemisphere compared to its leading hemisphere. We compared the detected CO 2 features to synthetic spectra of CO 2 ice and mixtures of CO 2 with CO, H 2 O, and amorphous carbon, finding that CO 2 could be concentrated in deposits thicker than ∼10 mm on Ariel’s trailing hemisphere. Comparison to laboratory data indicates that CO is likely mixed with CO 2 . The evidence for thick CO 2 ice deposits and the possible presence of carbonates on both hemispheres suggests that some carbon oxides could be sourced from Ariel’s interior, with their surface distributions modified by charged particle bombardment, sublimation, and seasonal migration of CO and CO 2 from high to low latitudes.

Uranian satellites↗

DOE OSTI2020

Integrating environmental understanding into freshwater floatovoltaic deployment using an effects hierarchy and decision trees

Abstract In an era of looming land scarcity and environmental degradation, the development of low carbon energy systems without adverse impacts on land and land-based resources is a global challenge. ‘Floatovoltaic’ energy systems—comprising floating photovoltaic (PV) panels over water—are an appealing source of low carbon energy as they spare land for other uses and attain greater electricity outputs compared to land-based systems. However, to date little is understood of the impacts of floatovoltaics on the hosting water body. Anticipating changes to water body processes, properties and services owing to floatovoltaic deployment represents a critical knowledge gap that may result in poor societal choices and water body governance. Here, we developed a theoretically-derived hierarchical effects framework for the assessment of floatovoltaic impacts on freshwater water bodies, emphasising ecological interactions. We describe how the presence of floatovoltaic systems may dramatically alter the air-water interface, with subsequent implications for surface meteorology, air-water fluxes and physical, chemical and biological properties of the recipient water body. We apply knowledge from this framework to delineate three response typologies—‘ magnitude’ , those for which the direction and magnitude of effect can be predicted; ‘ direction’ , those for which only the direction of effect can be predicted; and ‘ uncertain’ , those for which the response cannot be predicted—characterised by the relative importance of levels in the effects hierarchy. Illustrative decision trees are developed for an example water body response within each typology, specifically, evaporative water loss, cyanobacterial biomass, and phosphorus release from bed sediments, and implications for ecosystem services, including climate regulation, are discussed. Finally, the potential to use the new understanding of likely ecosystem perturbations to direct floatovoltaic design innovations and identify future research priorities is outlined, showcasing how inter-sectoral collaboration and environmental science can inform and optimise this low carbon, land-sparing renewable energy for ecosystem gains.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2023

Halo formation from Yukawa forces in the very early Universe

If long-range attractive forces exist and are stronger than gravity then cosmic halo formation can begin in the radiation-dominated era. We study a simple realization of this effect in a system where dark matter fermions have Yukawa interactions mediated by scalar particles, analogous to the Higgs boson in the standard model. We develop a self-consistent description of the system including exact background dynamics of the scalar field, and precise modeling of the fermion density fluctuations. For the latter, we provide accurate approximations for the linear growth as well as quantitative modeling of the nonlinear evolution using N-body simulations. We find that halo formation occurs exponentially fast and on scales substantially larger than simple estimates predict. Here, the final fate of these halos remains uncertain, but could be annihilation, dark stars, primordial black holes, or even the existence of galaxy-sized halos at matter-radiation equality. More generally, our results demonstrate the importance of mapping scalar-mediated interactions onto structure formation outcomes and constraints for beyond the standard model theories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rainbows and Climate Change: A tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization

Earth System Models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the 'state' of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a representation of this unique optical phenomena as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and it's possible changes are related to cloud occurrence and rain formation which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostics parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree qualitatively with limited available global 'observations' of Rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the sub-tropics over the ocean where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occurs. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at mid-latitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud parameterizations, and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2018

Aerosol-Radiation-Cloud Interactions in the South-East Atlantic: Results from the ORACLES-2016 Deployment and a First Look at ORACLES-2017 and Beyond

Seasonal biomass burning (BB) in Southern Africa during the Southern hemisphere spring produces almost a third of the Earth's BB aerosol particles. These particles are lofted into the mid-troposphere and transported westward over the South-East (SE) Atlantic, where they interact with one of the three semi-permanent subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. These interactions include adjustments to aerosol-induced solar heating and microphysical effects. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain, because of the scarcity of observational constraints on both, the aerosol and cloud properties, and the governing physical processes. The first deployment of the NASA P-3 and ER-2 aircraft in the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols Above Clouds and Their IntEractionS) project in August/September of 2016 has started to fill this observational gap by providing an unprecedented look at the SE Atlantic cloud-aerosol system. We provide an overview of the first deployment, highlighting aerosol absorptive and cloud-nucleating properties, their vertical distribution relative to clouds, the locations and degree of aerosol mixing into clouds, cloud changes in response to such mixing, and cloud top stability relationships to the aerosol. We also expect to describe preliminary results of the second ORACLES deployment from Sao Tome and Principe in August 2017. We will make an initial assessment of the differences and similarities of the BB plume and cloud properties as observed from a deployment site near the plume's northern edge. We will conclude with an outlook for the third ORACLES deployment in October 2018.

Redemann, Jens↗

NASA NTRS1976

Synthesis techniques for insensitive aircraft control systems

Comparative evaluation of seven insensitive synthesis techniques applied to the control of the longitudinal axis and symmetric flexure modes of the C-5A aircraft is described. These techniques have the common goal of achieving insensitivity to parameter uncertainties and unmodeled dynamics. For this comparison, the 'complete' model was assumed to consist of rigid body dynamics, fifteen flexure modes, unsteady aerodynamics, gust dynamics, and first order actuators for two control inputs. Thirteen flexure modes and the unsteady aerodynamics were treated as neglected dynamics. Dynamic pressure, structural frequency and damping, and the stability derivative were treated as uncertain parameters. Design specifications consisted of a transient response criterion, statistical response criteria, eigenvalue criteria and stability margins. A nominal controller designed without regard to sensitivity served as a benchmark for performance comparisons of the insensitive controllers.

Harvey, C. A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flexibility Options: A Proposed Product for Managing Imbalance Risk

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market with unbundled products is challenging as both the demand for and the availability of flexibility depends on day-ahead energy schedules. Existing approaches for reserve procurement usually rely either on oversimplified demand curves that do not consider how system conditions that particular day affect the value of flexibility, or on bilateral trading of hedging instruments that are not co-optimized with day-ahead schedules. This article proposes a new product, ‘Flexibility Options', to address these two limitations. The demand for this product is endogenously determined in the day-ahead market and it is met cost-effectively by considering real-time supply curves for product providers, which are co-optimized with the energy supply. As we illustrate with numerical examples and mathematical analysis, the product addresses the hedging needs of participants with imbalances cost-effectively, provides a less intermittent revenue stream for participants with flexible outputs, promotes value-driven pricing of flexibility, and ensures that the system operator is revenue-neutral. This article provides a comprehensive design that can be further tested and applied in large-scale systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1991

Decision blocks: A tool for automating decision making in CLIPS

The human capability of making complex decision is one of the most fascinating facets of human intelligence, especially if vague, judgemental, default or uncertain knowledge is involved. Unfortunately, most existing rule based forward chaining languages are not very suitable to simulate this aspect of human intelligence, because of their lack of support for approximate reasoning techniques needed for this task, and due to the lack of specific constructs to facilitate the coding of frequently reoccurring decision block to provide better support for the design and implementation of rule based decision support systems. A language called BIRBAL, which is defined on the top of CLIPS, for the specification of decision blocks, is introduced. Empirical experiments involving the comparison of the length of CLIPS program with the corresponding BIRBAL program for three different applications are surveyed. The results of these experiments suggest that for decision making intensive applications, a CLIPS program tends to be about three times longer than the corresponding BIRBAL program.

Eick, Christoph F.↗

NASA NTRS2007

NASA'S Simulant Development Program Evolution and Overview

Since its origination under NASA's previous Human System Research and Technology program, the Lunar Simulant Development Program has undergone several changes. NASA recognized as early as the Apollo Program, and even more so as a result of the Apollo missions, that a viable dust and lunar simulant program is critical to the success of its space exploration goals. Unfortunately, this program has suffered the same problems that all programs share from time to time including uncertain budgets, shifting of priorities, and schedule fluctuations. To compound the problem, the process for developing simulants is being redefined and is not a trivial pursuit. Before now, NASA had not attempted to develop a suitable standard simulant since the 1990s when JSC-1 was produced. Although several other simulants have been developed by various groups both before and after the production of JSC-1, JSC-1 had become the de facto standard even though it has some limitations. The development and production of new simulants will address some of these limitations by starting with an assessment of NASA's needs and understanding the required processing in order to make these simulants.

McLemore, Carole↗

NASA NTRS2010

Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Stratospheric Ozone Over the 21st Century

Future stratospheric ozone concentrations will be determined both by changes in the concentration of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and by changes in stratospheric and tropospheric climate, including those caused by changes in anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs). Since future economic development pathways and resultant emissions of GHGs are uncertain, anthropogenic climate change could be a significant source of uncertainty for future projections of stratospheric ozone. In this pilot study, using an ensemble of opportunity of chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations, the contribution of scenario uncertainty from different plausible emissions pathways for 10 ODSs and GHGs to future ozone projections is quantified relative to the contribution from model uncertainty and internal variability of the chemistry-climate system. For both the global, annual mean ozone concentration and for ozone in specific geographical regions, differences between CCMs are the dominant source of uncertainty for the first two-thirds of the 21 st century, up-to and after the time when ozone concentrations 15 return to 1980 values. In the last third of the 21st century, dependent upon the set of greenhouse gas scenarios used, scenario uncertainty can be the dominant contributor. This result suggests that investment in chemistry-climate modelling is likely to continue to refine projections of stratospheric ozone and estimates of the return of stratospheric ozone concentrations to pre-1980 levels.

Charlton-Perez, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Experimentally Modeling the Emergence of Prebiotically Plausible Phospholipid Vesicles

The prebiotic emergence of protocells is an important part of any origins of life scenario. Although fatty-acid-based vesicles are well studied, how they transitioned to phospholipid vesicles is uncertain. Herein, we show that cyclic-phospholipids formed from fatty acids and glycerol could have played a role by generating a heterogeneous library of vesicles with diverse morphologies and tolerance to a range of metal ions, temperature, and pH. The cyclic phosphate moiety facilitates the natural emergence of vesicles composed of diacyl-phospholipids to become part of the chemical evolutionary process. Competing emergent properties of the various systems (facilitated by additives) could have led to an early preference of the sn-1,2-acyl-substitution on the glycerol backbone coincidental with extant biology. Thus, cyclic-phospholipids could have played a significant role not only in early prebiotic protocellular chemistry but also in facilitating the chemical evolution of protocells from the structurally simple to the functionally more complex.

Sunil Pulletikurti↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS) – III. Physical properties and elemental abundances of Lyman-limit systems at z < 1

ABSTRACT We present a systematic investigation of physical conditions and elemental abundances in four optically thick Lyman-limit systems (LLSs) at z = 0.36–0.6 discovered within the Cosmic Ultraviolet Baryon Survey (CUBS). Because intervening LLSs at z < 1 suppress far-UV (ultraviolet) light from background QSOs, an unbiased search of these absorbers requires a near-UV-selected QSO sample, as achieved by CUBS. CUBS LLSs exhibit multicomponent kinematic structure and a complex mix of multiphase gas, with associated metal transitions from multiple ionization states such as C ii, C iii, N iii, Mg ii, Si ii, Si iii, O ii, O iii, O vi, and Fe ii absorption that span several hundred km s−1 in line-of-sight velocity. Specifically, higher column density components (log N(H i)/cm−2≳ 16) in all four absorbers comprise dynamically cool gas with $\langle T \rangle =(2\pm 1) \times 10^4\,$K and modest non-thermal broadening of $\langle b_\mathrm{nt} \rangle =5\pm 3\,$km s−1. The high quality of the QSO absorption spectra allows us to infer the physical conditions of the gas, using a detailed ionization modelling that takes into account the resolved component structures of H i and metal transitions. The range of inferred gas densities indicates that these absorbers consist of spatially compact clouds with a median line-of-sight thickness of $160^{+140}_{-50}$ pc. While obtaining robust metallicity constraints for the low density, highly ionized phase remains challenging due to the uncertain $N\mathrm{(H\, {\small I})}$, we demonstrate that the cool-phase gas in LLSs has a median metallicity of $\mathrm{[\alpha /H]_{1/2}}=-0.7^{+0.1}_{-0.2}$, with a 16–84 percentile range of [α/H] = (−1.3, −0.1). Furthermore, the wide range of inferred elemental abundance ratios ([C/α], [N/α], and [Fe/α]) indicate a diversity of chemical enrichment histories. Combining the absorption data with deep galaxy survey data characterizing the galaxy environment of these absorbers, we discuss the physical connection between star-forming regions in galaxies and diffuse gas associated with optically thick absorption systems in the z < 1 circumgalactic medium.

Zahedy, Fakhri S. (ORCID:0000000178692551)↗

NASA NTRS1990

NCTM of liquids at high temperatures using polarization techniques

Temperature measurement and control is extremely important in any materials processing application. However, conventional techniques for non-contact temperature measurement (mainly optical pyrometry) are very uncertain because of unknown or varying surface emittance. Optical properties like other properties change during processing. A dynamic, in-situ measurement of optical properties including the emittance is required. Intersonics is developing new technologies using polarized laser light scattering to determine surface emittance of freely radiating bodies concurrent with conventional optical pyrometry. These are sufficient to determine the true surface temperature of the target. Intersonics is currently developing a system called DAPP, the Division of Amplitude Polarimetric Pyrometer, that uses polarization information to measure the true thermodynamic temperature of freely radiating objects. This instrument has potential use in materials processing applications in ground and space based equipment. Results of thermophysical and thermodynamic measurements using laser reflection as a temperature measuring tool are presented. The impact of these techniques on thermophysical property measurements at high temperature is discussed.

Krishnan, Shankar↗

NASA NTRS2002

Reliability and Productivity Modeling for the Optimization of Separated Spacecraft Interferometers

As technological systems grow in capability, they also grow in complexity. Due to this complexity, it is no longer possible for a designer to use engineering judgement to identify the components that have the largest impact on system life cycle metrics, such as reliability, productivity, cost, and cost effectiveness. One way of identifying these key components is to build quantitative models and analysis tools that can be used to aid the designer in making high level architecture decisions. Once these key components have been identified, two main approaches to improving a system using these components exist: add redundancy or improve the reliability of the component. In reality, the most effective approach to almost any system will be some combination of these two approaches, in varying orders of magnitude for each component. Therefore, this research tries to answer the question of how to divide funds, between adding redundancy and improving the reliability of components, to most cost effectively improve the life cycle metrics of a system. While this question is relevant to any complex system, this research focuses on one type of system in particular: Separate Spacecraft Interferometers (SSI). Quantitative models are developed to analyze the key life cycle metrics of different SSI system architectures. Next, tools are developed to compare a given set of architectures in terms of total performance, by coupling different life cycle metrics together into one performance metric. Optimization tools, such as simulated annealing and genetic algorithms, are then used to search the entire design space to find the "optimal" architecture design. Sensitivity analysis tools have been developed to determine how sensitive the results of these analyses are to uncertain user defined parameters. Finally, several possibilities for the future work that could be done in this area of research are presented.

Kenny, Sean↗

NASA NTRS2018

Toward Justifiable Trust in Autonomous Systems Incorporating Human Knowledge in Autonomous Systems through Machine Learning

Trust in Autonomous Systems is largely about humans trusting the decisions made by autonomous systems. This trust can be increased through learning from domain experts. In particular, autonomous systems can learn offline from past mission operations before conducting any operations of its own. Additionally, autonomous systems can learn online by obtaining human feedback during operations. We will discuss several classes of machine learning methods and our application of them to autonomous systems. The first class of methods is anomaly detection, which uses operations data to identify examples of anomalous operations. The second class of methods is inverse reinforcement learning, also known as apprenticeship learning, that takes past operations data as input and yields a controller that is able to duplicate the operations described by the data. The third class is active learning, which identifies examples on which the model is most uncertain and requests domain expert feedback.

Oza, Nikunj C.↗