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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

California's harvested wood products: A time-dependent assessment of life cycle greenhouse gas emissions

Following life-cycle assessment (LCA) methodology, this study presents a state-level estimation of embodied carbon of wood products harvested in 2019 from California and subsequently processed, manufactured, transported, used, and disposed at the end-of-life (EoL). In a conventional static approach to LCA, all GHG emissions were aggregated and considered to occur at year 0 of the given time horizon (500 years in this study) and used a static characterization factor (CF). In dynamic LCA, GHG emissions occurring in different years were considered, and their global warming impact (GWI) was determined using a time-dependent CF over the selected time horizon of 500 years. Four scenarios were developed to examine the impact of EoL choices on GWI. It was found that dynamic GWI for all scenarios ranged from 0.27 to 0.93 million tonne CO₂e, which were 45–73 % lower than those estimated with static LCA approach, indicating that the static LCA approach could lead to an underestimation of the benefits of substituting wood for non-wood products, compared to those based on dynamic LCA approach. This analysis also demonstrated that the choice of EoL treatment option is a key factor affecting the estimated GWI as it directly determines the annual emission of GHGs released into atmosphere and subsequently their warming effect depending on the time harvested wood products (HWPs) spend in the horizon of assessment. Altogether, the dynamic LCA performed in this study enabled more robust interpretations of embodied carbon by including temporal boundaries associated with the HWPs life cycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Refueling infrastructure planning in intercity networks considering route choice and travel time delay for mixed fleet of electric and conventional vehicles

The range anxiety has been a major factor that affects the market acceptance of electric vehicles. Even with the recent development of battery technologies, a lack of charging stations and range anxiety are still significant concerns, specifically for intercity trips. This calls for more investments in building charging stations and advancing battery technologies to increase the market share of electric vehicles and improve sustainability. This study suggests a configuration for plug-in electric vehicle charging infrastructure to support long-distance intercity trips of electric vehicles at the network level. A model is proposed to minimize the total system cost including infrastructure investment (building charging stations/spots) and travel time delays (charging time, waiting time in the queue, and detour time to access charging stations). This study fills existing gaps in the literature by capturing realistic patterns of travel demand and considering flow-dependent charging delays at charging stations. Furthermore, the proposed model, which is formulated as a mixed-integer program with nonlinear constraints, solves the optimization problem at the network level. At the network level, impacts of charging station locations on the traffic assignment problem with a mixed fleet of electric and conventional vehicles need to be considered. To this end, a traffic assignment module is integrated with a simulated annealing algorithm. The numerical experiments show a satisfactory application of the model for a full-scale case study (intercity network in Michigan). The solution quality and efficiency of the proposed solution algorithm are evaluated against those of an enumeration approach for a small case study. The results suggest that even for the current market share and charging stations’ setting, a significant investment is needed to support intercity trips without range anxiety issues and with acceptable delays. Additionally, through sensitivity analyses, the required infrastructure and battery investments to support intercity trips with acceptable delays are established for hypothetical increased market shares and battery size in the future.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

The influence of the shock-to-reshock time on the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability in reshock

Experiments on the Richtmyer–Meshkov instability (RMI) in a dual driver vertical shock tube (DDVST) are described. An initially planar, stably stratified membraneless interface is formed by flowing air from above and sulfur hexafluoride from below the interface location using the method of Jones & Jacobs ( Phys. Fluids , vol. 9, issue 1997, 1997, pp. 3078–3085). A random three-dimensional, multi-modal initial perturbation is imposed by vertically oscillating the gas column to produce Faraday waves. The DDVST design generates two shock waves, one originating above and one below the interface, with these shocks having independently controllable strengths and interface arrival times. The shock waves have nominal strengths of $M_L=1.17$ and $M_H=1.18$ for the shock wave originating in the light and heavy gas, respectively, with these strengths chosen to result in arrested bulk interface motion following reshock. The influence of the length of the shock-to-reshock time, as well as the order of shock arrival, on the post-reshock RMI is examined. The mixing layer width grows according to $h\propto t^\theta$ , where $\theta _H=0.36\pm 0.018$ (95 %) and $\theta _L=0.38\pm 0.02$ (95 %) for heavy and light shock first experiments, respectively, indicating no strong dependence on the order of shock wave arrival. Volume integrated specific turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) in the mixing layer versus time is found to decay according to $E_{tot}/\bar {\rho }\propto t^p$ with $p_H=-0.823\pm 0.06$ (95 %) and $p_L=-1.061\pm 0.032$ (95 %) for heavy and light shock first experiments, respectively. Notably, the 95 % confidence intervals do not overlap. Analysis on the influence of the shock-to-reshock time on turbulent length scales, transition criteria, spectra and mixing layer anisotropy are also presented.

Ferguson, Kevin (ORCID:0000000166537482)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Significance of application timing, formulation, and cytochrome P450 genotypic class on sweet corn response to dicamba

Sweet corn (Zea mays L.) tolerance to dicamba and several other herbicides is due to cytochrome P450 (CYP)-mediated metabolism and is conferred by a single gene (Nsf1). Tolerance varies by CYP genotypic class, with hybrids homozygous for functional CYP (Nsf1Nsf1) being the most tolerant and hybrids homozygous for mutant CYP alleles (nsf1nsf1) being the least tolerant. The herbicide safener cyprosulfamide (CSA) increases tolerance to dicamba by stimulating the expression of several CYPs. However, the extent to which CSA improves the tolerance of different sweet corn CYP genotypic classes to dicamba is poorly understood. Additionally, the effect of growth stage on sweet corn sensitivity to dicamba is inadequately described. The objective of this work was to quantify the significance of application timing, formulation, and CYP genotypic class on sweet corn response to dicamba. Hybrids representing each of the three CYP genotypes (Nsf1Nsf1, Nsf1nsf1, nsf1nsf1), were treated with dicamba or dicamba + CSA at one of three growth stages: V3, V6, or V9. Across all timings, the nsf1nsf1 hybrid was the least tolerant to dicamba, displaying 16% higher crop injury levels 2 wk after treatment and 2,130 kg ha -1 lower ear mass yields compared with the Nsf1Nsf1 hybrid. The V9 growth stage was the most susceptible time for dicamba injury regardless of genotypic class, with 1.89 and 1,750 kg ha -1 lower ear mass yields compared with the V3 and V6 application timings, respectively. The addition of CSA to dicamba V9 applications reduced the injury from dicamba for all three genotypic classes; however, it did not eliminate the injury. The use of Nsf1Nsf1 or Nsf1nsf1 sweet corn hybrids along with herbicide safeners will reduce the frequency and severity of injury from dicamba and other CYP-metabolized herbicides.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy Transfer Mechanisms in Large Low-Bandgap Polymers from Time-Resolved Experiments and Nonadiabatic Molecular Dynamics Calculations

Conjugated polymers offer unprecedented chemical tunability for modulating energy transfer in a multitude of infrared light applications. In this work, we use a combination of time-resolved spectroscopic experiments and nonadiabatic molecular dynamics calculations to probe the photochemistry and nonradiative transitions in a recently synthesized narrow bandgap donor–acceptor conjugated polymer based on alternating cyclopentadithiophene and electronegative benzothiadiazole heterocycles. Using large-scale semi-empirical nonadiabatic molecular dynamics, which can treat a large 260-atom hexamer, we calculate an S 5 → S 1 lifetime of 34.75 fs, which is consistent with our time-resolved spectroscopic data. Our simulations suggest that vibronic motions of the central carbons in the cyclopentadithiophene functional groups are predominantly involved in the nonradiative transitions, and the excitation becomes more localized on a monomer fragment over time. The combined use of time-resolved experiments and nonadiabatic molecular dynamics calculations in this work provides mechanistic insight into chemical functionalities that can be tuned to enhance energy transfer in other prospective low-bandgap polymer materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Stimulated Raman Scattering Microscopy: Real-Time In-Situ Physical and Chemical Characterization of Reverse Osmosis Desalination Membrane Scaling

We introduce a stimulated Raman scattering (SRS) methodology designed for rapid, real-time, and in situ monitoring of RO membrane scaling adapted for bench-scale desalination flow cells. The methodology can provide new insights into membrane scaling dynamics by offering time-resolved reflection imaging of inorganic crystal growth, coupled with chemical identification from Raman spectral data. These capabilities allow for direct local measurement of the membrane surface area covered by different scalants as well as an approximation of the scalant volume using three-dimensional, integrated Raman intensity. The 2D and 3D SRS results obtained from CaSO 4 scaling experiments are compared to and are in reasonable agreement with those provided by confocal microscopy. The real-time physical and chemical characterization capabilities presented here could be extended to study combinations of inorganic, organic, and biological fouling. Overall, the SRS methodology represents an advancement in real-time sensing of membrane fouling that offers the potential for improved operation, lower cost, and more resilient RO membrane systems for sustainable water management.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Time-Resolved X-ray Emission Spectroscopy and Resonant Inelastic X-ray Scattering Spectroscopy of Laser Irradiated Carbon

The existence of liquid carbon as an intermediate phase preceding the formation of novel carbon materials has been a point of contention for several decades. Experimental observation of such a liquid state requires nonthermal melting of solid carbon materials at various laser fluences and pulse properties. Reflectivity experiments performed in the mid-1980s reached opposing conclusions regarding the metallic or insulating properties of the purported liquid state. Time-resolved X-ray absorption studies showed shortening of C–C bonds and increasing diffraction densities, thought to evidence a liquid or glassy carbon state, respectively. Nevertheless, none of these experiments provided information on the electronic structure of the proposed liquid state. Herein, we report the results of time-resolved resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (RIXS) and time-resolved X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES) studies on amorphous carbon (a-C) and ultrananocrystalline diamond (UNCD) as a function of delay time between the irradiating pulse and X-ray probe. For both a-C and UNCD, we attribute decreases in RIXS or XES signals to transition blocking, relaxation, and finally, ablation. Increased signal at 20 ps following the irradiation of the UNCD is attributed to the probable formation of nanoscale structures in the ablation plume. Further, differences in the amount of signal observed between a-C and UNCD are explained by the difference in sample thickness and, specifically, incomplete melting of the UNCD film. Comparisons to spectral simulations based on MD trajectories at extreme conditions indicate that the carbon state in our experiments is crystalline. Normal mode analysis confirmed that symmetrical bending or stretching of the C–C bonds in the diamond lattice results in XES spectra with small intensity differences. Overall, we observed no evidence of melting to a liquid state, as determined by the lack of changes in the spectral properties for up to 100 ps delays following the melting pulses.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Time-Resolved Observation of Hole Tunneling in van der Waals Multilayer Heterostructures

We reported a time-resolved study of quantum-mechanical tunneling of holes between two MoSe 2 monolayers that are separated by a monolayer WS 2 energy barrier. Four-layer heterostructures of MoSe 2 /WS 2 /MoSe 2 /graphene, as well as control samples, were fabricated by mechanical exfoliation and dry transfer techniques. To time-resolve the hole tunneling process, an ultrashort laser pulse was used to excite electrons and holes in both MoSe 2 layers. Here, by utilization of the graphene layer to eliminate carriers in the third MoSe 2 layer, the first MoSe 2 layer is selectively populated with the holes, which then tunnel to the third MoSe 2 layer. By monitoring decay of the hole population with an ultrashort probe pulse, we measure a hole tunneling time of about 20 ps, which is found to slightly increase with the injected carrier density. Besides the fundamental interests of real-time observation of the quantum-mechanical tunneling effect across a nanometer barrier, these results provide quantitative understanding on tunneling mechanisms of charge transfer in van der Waals heterostructures, which is useful for designing sophisticated van der Waals multilayer heterostructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Controlling the Aspect Ratios of Au Nanocrystals with Ag+ Addition Time in Seed-Mediated Synthesis: Implications for Surface-Enhanced Raman Scattering

Among various factors playing pivotal roles in the typical seed-mediated growth of Au nanocrystals (NCs), the role of Ag (AgNO3) has remained debatable over time and seminal research efforts have helped us in reaching a consensus, albeit from the standpoint of [Ag+] concentration. This study aims to provide an understanding of the role of Ag+ from the perspective of time. Here, we show that different Au NCs with tunable aspect ratios (ARs) can be generated in one system in high yield simply by varying the time of addition of Ag+ in the growth solution. The generality of the method has been demonstrated in tuning the ARs of anisotropic Au NCs like concave cuboid (CCB, AR = 2) and elongated tetrahexahedra (AR = 2.5), where the delayed addition of Ag+ leads to the formation of their isotropic counterpart concave cube (CC, AR = 1) and tetrahexahedra (AR = 1), respectively. This work, apart from establishing timed addition of Ag+ as a crucial parameter in controlling the AR, may also help in the realization of a universal growth mechanism of Au NCs. The Au NCs with varying ARs (CCB, AR = 2 and CC, AR = 1) have been further explored as potential substrates for surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) due to the presence of their high-index facets and sharp tips.

KEYWORDS:Au nanoparticles seed-mediated growth hig↗
DOE OSTI2023

Real-Time Diagnostics of 2D Crystal Transformations by Pulsed Laser Deposition: Controlled Synthesis of Janus WSSe Monolayers and Alloys

Energetic processing methods such as hyperthermal implantation hold special promise to achieve the precision synthesis of metastable two-dimensional (2D) materials such as Janus monolayers; however, they require precise control. Here, we report a feedback approach to reveal and control the transformation pathways in materials synthesis by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) and apply it to investigate the transformation kinetics of monolayer WS 2 crystals into Janus WSSe and WSe 2 by implantation of Se clusters with different maximum kinetic energies (<42 eV/Se-atom) generated by laser ablation of a Se target. Real-time Raman spectroscopy and photoluminescence are used to assess the structure, composition, and optoelectronic quality of the monolayer crystal as it is implanted with well-controlled fluxes of selenium for different kinetic energies that are regulated with in situ ICCD imaging, ion probe, and spectroscopy diagnostics. First-principles calculations, XPS, and atomic-resolution HAADF STEM imaging are used to understand the intermediate alloy compositions and their vibrational modes to identify transformation pathways. The real-time kinetics measurements reveal highly selective top-layer conversion as WS 2 transforms through WS 2(1–x) Se 2x alloys to WSe 2 and provide the means to adjust processing conditions to achieve fractional and complete Janus WSSe monolayers as metastable transition states. The general approach demonstrates a real-time feedback method to achieve Janus layers or other metastable alloys of the desired composition, and a general means to adjust the structure and quality of materials grown by PLD, addressing priority research directions for precision synthesis with real-time adaptive control.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-Evolving Chirality Loss in Molecular Photodissociation Monitored by X-ray Circular Dichroism Spectroscopy

In this work, the ultrafast photoinduced chirality loss of 2-iodobutane is studied theoretically by time- and frequency-resolved X-ray circular dichroism (TRXCD) spectroscopy. Following an optical excitation, the iodine atom dissociates from the chiral center, which we capture by quantum non-adiabatic molecular dynamics simulations. At variable time delays after the pump, the resonant X-ray pulse selectively probes the iodine and carbon atom involved in the chiral dissociation through a selected core-to-valence transition. The TRXCD signal at the iodine L 1 edge accurately captures the timing of C–I photodissociation and thereby chirality loss, c.a 70 fs. The strong electric dipole–electric quadrupole (ED–EQ) response makes this signal particularly sensitive to vibronic coherence at the high X-ray regime. At the carbon K-edges, the signals monitor the molecular chirality of the 2-butyl radical photoproduct and the spin state of the iodine atom. The ED–EQ response is masked under the strong electric dipole-magnetic dipole response, making this signal intuitive for the electronic population. The evolution of the core electronic states and its chiral sensitivity is discussed. Overall, the element-specific TRXCD signal provides a detailed picture of molecular dynamics and offers a unique sensitive window into the time-dependent chirality of molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating and Forecasting Time-Varying Groundwater Recharge in Fractured Rock: A State-Space Formulation with Preferential and Diffuse Flow to the Water Table

Rapid infiltration following precipitation may result in groundwater contamination from surface contaminants or pathogens. In fractured rock, contaminants can migrate rapidly to points of groundwater withdrawals. In contrast to the temporal availability of groundwater quality chemical indicators, meteorological and groundwater level observations are available in real-time to estimate time-varying recharge, which can act as a surrogate to identify periods of rapid infiltration that may indicate contamination susceptibility. Estimating recharge using methods, such as base-flow recession, unsaturated infiltration models, or Water-Table Fluctuations (WTF), cannot capitalize on currently available technologies and telecommunication infrastructure to conduct real-time recharge estimation at scales relevant to characterizing rapid infiltration. We present a linear, physics-based State-Space (SS) model of one-dimensional infiltration to estimate recharge, which includes preferential and diffuse-flow to the water table. The model can take advantage of real-time data for water-table altitude, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. Model parameters are calibrated over an observation period, and the Kalman Filter (KF) is subsequently applied to continuously update the observed (water-table altitude) and unobserved (groundwater recharge) system states and predict future states as new data become available. The SS/KF algorithm is demonstrated at the Masser Groundwater Recharge Site in Pennsylvania, USA and comparisons are made with recharge estimates from WTF methods. Model results indicate that the frequency of observations (daily versus sub-daily) dictates the allocation between preferential and diffuse flow. Additionally, because infiltration processes encompass many nonlinearities, model parameters estimated from observation periods need to be updated at least seasonally to account for changing recharge conditions.

groundwater, Recharge, infiltration, recursive est↗
DOE OSTI2021

Breaking Down the Computational Barriers to Real-Time Urban Flood Forecasting

Flooding impacts are on the rise globally, and concentrated in urban areas. Currently, there are no operational systems to forecast flooding at spatial resolutions that can facilitate emergency preparedness and response actions mitigating flood impacts. We present a framework for real-time flood modeling and uncertainty quantification that combines the physics of fluid motion with advances in probabilistic methods. The framework overcomes the prohibitive computational demands of high-fidelity modeling in real-time by using a probabilistic learning method relying on surrogate models that are trained prior to a flood event. This shifts the overwhelming burden of computation to the trivial problem of data storage, and enables forecasting of both flood hazard and its uncertainty at scales that are vital for time-critical decision-making before and during extreme events. The framework has the potential to improve flood prediction and analysis and can be extended to other hazard assessments requiring intense high-fidelity computations in real-time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Differentiable Hydrology Approach for Modeling With Time-Varying Parameters

In the analysis of observational data with mathematical models, it is often desirable to let one or more model parameters vary with time to account for changing environmental conditions or to offer more flexibility. A standard approach for dynamic models is to allow for the number of parameters to grow as a function of time, leading to a high-dimensional inference problem for long data records. We propose using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, a gradient-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, to perform Bayesian inference for time-varying parameters (TVP) in hydrology models. As derivatives of model error functions with regard to parameters are not available in closed form, we implemented the GR4J rainfall-runoff models in Theano/PyMC3, and Jax/NumPyro, allowing for the application of automatic differentiation techniques. A simulation experiment assessing the viability of these methods for recovering underlying temporal variation in parameters indicates that a discrete Gaussian random walk-based prior appears to be best suited across a range of scenarios while the continuous-time Gaussian process compares relatively poorly. In an analysis of 20 years of daily real-world streamflow records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) hydrology data set with increasing data sparsity and at multiple temporal resolutions, we find that TVP inference with gradient-based MCMC is a flexible and reliable approach for analyzing hydrology models with dynamic parameter sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating Arctic Ocean Acoustic Travel Times Using an Earth System Model

Abstract The hydroacoustic environment of a rapidly warming Arctic Ocean will be impacted by interconnected changes in the physical environment and increased human activity. Previous acoustic calculations will need to be updated to reflect current and future conditions. Earth System Models are important tools for making projections of changes in a wide range of physical processes under future climates. We present a comparison of Arctic acoustic travel times based on output from the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model with measured travel times from the 2016–2017 Canada Basin Acoustic Propagation Experiment and with travel times predicted by empirical temperature and salinity observations. This comparison allows us to test the impact of changes in Arctic sound speed profiles on acoustic travel times and connects Arctic hydroacoustics with the changing Arctic environment as described by a climate model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Rate of Canopy Development Modulates the Link Between the Timing of Spring Leaf Emergence and Summer Moisture

Shifts in phenological timing have important implications for ecosystem processes, with spring leaf emergence as a dominant control of carbon, water, and energy cycling. Phenological events are predominantly determined by weather and climate, therefore dynamic in time and sensitive to climate feedbacks. Improving our understanding of how ecosystems respond to changes in phenological timing will enhance our ability to assess summer soil water availability, since the timing of spring leaf emergence may lead to soil moisture deficits later in the growing season. We leveraged data from five AmeriFlux towers in central and eastern United States to investigate the extent spring leaf emergence (i.e., start of spring, SoS ) influences rates at which forest canopies develop and how this impacts summer soil moisture ( θ JJA ) variability. Our results indicate that ecosystem processes, specifically gross primary production ( GPP ) and evapotranspiration ( ET ), exhibit compensatory responses to varying leaf emergence; with delayed spring-onset, the canopy developed more quickly, resulting in rapid GPP and ET increases, consistent across sites. Nonetheless, early SoS is a relatively good indicator for potential summer soil water deficits, particularly when it occurs together with meteorological conditions (i.e., lower-than-average precipitation, hot summer temperatures) that contribute to soil water deficits. When these meteorological conditions coincide with early SoS , θ JJA deficits are exacerbated. To the extent that these extreme conditions occur more frequently under future climate scenarios, the dynamics of spring phenology and hydroclimate may play an increasingly important role in portending the likelihood of summer water deficits, which are projected to become more severe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

QRF4P-NRT: Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates Using Quantile Regression Forests

Accurate and reliable near-real-time satellite precipitation estimation is of great importance for operational large-scale flood forecasting and drought monitoring. The state-of-the-art precipitation post-processing model is based on a deterministic approach to construct relationships between satellites estimates and ground observations. We propose a probabilistic postprocessor, the Probabilistic Post-Processing of Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimates using Quantile Regression Forests (QRF4P-NRT), based on quantile modeling, yielding both deterministic and probabilistic predictions. The experimental design incorporates different solutions of near-real-time predictors to further improve the model performance. Using the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals Early Run for Global Precipitation Measurement Mission (IMERG-E) product as an example, we illustrate that the proposed method significantly improves the overall quality of the raw IMERG-E and is also superior to the bias-corrected product (IMERG Final Run, IMERG-F) at daily scale in a complex mountain basin. Evaluations of the corrected IMERG-E, raw IMERG-E, and IMERG-F using ground observation show that the corrected IMERG-E improves correlation coefficients (0.7), mean error (-0.14 mm/day) and root mean square error (3.3 mm/day) relative to the raw IMERG-E (0.31, -0.72 and 5.5 mm/day) and IMERG-F (0.34, -0.09 and 6.0 mm/day). The error decomposition further confirms that the QRF4P-NRT improves on the various deficiencies of the raw IMERG-E product. The ensemble assessment also demonstrates that the quantile outputs provide reliable prediction spread and sharp prediction intervals. The promising results indicate the great potential of the proposed method for probabilistic post-processing for near-real-time satellite precipitation estimates, and for further applications such as hydrological ensemble forecasting.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗