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DOE OSTI2020

Inferring the Dynamics of the State Evolution During Quantum Annealing

To solve an optimization problem using a commercial quantum annealer, one has to represent the problem of interest as an Ising or a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem and submit its coefficients to the annealer, which then returns a user-specified number of low-energy solutions. It would be useful to know what happens in the quantum processor during the anneal process so that one could design better algorithms or suggest improvements to the hardware. However, existing quantum annealers are not able to directly extract such information from the processor. Hence, in this work we propose to use advanced features of D-Wave 2000Q to indirectly infer information about the dynamics of the state evolution during the anneal process. Specifically, D-Wave 2000Q allows the user to customize the anneal schedule, that is, the schedule with which the anneal fraction is changed from the start to the end of the anneal. Furthermore, using this feature, we design a set of modified anneal schedules whose outputs can be used to generate information about the states of the system at user-defined time points during a standard anneal. With this process, called "slicing", we obtain approximate distributions of lowest-energy anneal solutions as the anneal time evolves. We use our technique to obtain a variety of insights into the annealer, such as the state evolution during annealing, when individual bits in an evolving solution flip during the anneal process and when they stabilize, and we introduce a technique to estimate the freeze-out point of both the system as well as of individual qubits.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Graph-Augmented Normalizing Flows for Anomaly Detection of Multiple Time Series

Anomaly detection is a widely studied task for a broad variety of data types; among them, multiple time series appear frequently in applications, including for example, power grids and traffic networks. Detecting anomalies for multiple time series, however, is a challenging subject, owing to the intricate interdependencies among the constituent series. We hypothesize that anomalies occur in low density regions of a distribution and explore the use of normalizing flows for unsupervised anomaly detection, because of their superior quality in density estimation. Moreover, we propose a novel flow model by imposing a Bayesian network among constituent series. A Bayesian network is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) that models causal relationships; it factorizes the joint probability of the series into the product of easy-to-evaluate conditional probabilities. We call such a graph-augmented normalizing flow approach GANF and propose joint estimation of the DAG with flow parameters. We conduct extensive experiments on real-world datasets and demonstrate the effectiveness of GANF for density estimation, anomaly detection, and identification of time series distribution drift.

Dai, Enyan↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Fast Dynamic Internal Predictive Power Scheduling Approach for Power Management in Microgrids: Preprint

This paper presents a Dynamic Internal Predictive Power Scheduling (DIPPS) approach for optimizing power management in microgrids, particularly focusing on external power exchanges among diverse prosumers. DIPPS utilizes a dynamic objective function with a time-varying binary parameter to control the timing of power transfers to the external grid, facilitated by efficient usage of energy storage for surplus renewable power. The microgrid power scheduling problem is modeled as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP-PS) and subsequently transformed into a mixed-integer linear programming (MILPPS) optimization through McCormick's relaxation to reduce computational complexity. A predictive window window with 6 data points is solved at an average of 0.92s, a 97.6% improvement over the 38.27s required for the MINLP-PS formulation, implying the numerical feasibility of the DIPPS approach for real-time implementation. Finally, the approach is validated against a static objective using real-world load data across three case studies with different time-varying parameters, demonstrating the ability of DIPPS to optimize power exchanges and efficiently utilize distributed resources while shifting the external power transfers to specified time durations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Solving differential‐algebraic equations in power system dynamic analysis with quantum computing

Abstract Power system dynamics are generally modeled by high dimensional non‐linear differential‐algebraic equations (DAEs) given a large number of components forming the network. These DAEs' complexity can grow exponentially due to the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources, whereas their computation time becomes sensitive due to the increasing interconnection of the power grid with other energy systems. This paper demonstrates the use of quantum computing algorithms to solve DAEs for power system dynamic analysis. We leverage a symbolic programming framework to equivalently convert the power system's DAEs into ordinary differential equations (ODEs) using index reduction methods and then encode their data into qubits using amplitude encoding. The system non‐linearity is captured by Hamiltonian simulation with truncated Taylor expansion so that state variables can be updated by a quantum linear equation solver. Our results show that quantum computing can solve the power system's DAEs accurately with a computational complexity polynomial in the logarithm of the system dimension. We also illustrate the use of recent advanced tools in scientific machine learning for implementing complex computing concepts, that is, Taylor expansion, DAEs/ODEs transformation, and quantum computing solver with abstract representation for power engineering applications.

computational complexity↗

DOE OSTI2021

An efficient method to estimate the probability density of seismic Green's functions

We present a computationally efficient method to approximate the probability distribution of seismic Green's functions given the uncertainty of an Earth model. The method is based on the Karhunen-Loève (KL) theorem and an approximation of the Green's function (or seismogram) covariance. Using Monte Carlo (MC) simulations as a control case, we demonstrate that our KL-based method can accurately reproduce a probability distribution of seismograms that results from an uncertain Earth model for a MC-derived seismogram covariance. We then describe a method to estimate the covariance of the seismograms resulting from those Earth models that is not based on MC simulations. We use the estimated Green's function covariance in conjunction with our KL-based method to produce a Green's function probability distribution, and compare that distribution to a Green's function probability distribution produced using a MC finite difference method. We find that the Green's function probability distribution approximated using our KL-based method generally mimics that produced using the MC simulations, especially for direct-arriving body waves. However the accuracy of the KL-based method generally decreases for later times in the simulated Green's function distribution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning for modern power distribution systems: Progress and perspectives

The application of machine learning (ML) to power and energy systems (PES) is being researched at an astounding rate, resulting in a significant number of recent additions to the literature. As the infrastructure of electric power systems evolves, so does interest in deploying ML techniques to PES. However, despite growing interest, the limited number of reported real-world applications suggests that the gap between research and practice is yet to be fully bridged. To help highlight areas where this gap could be narrowed, this article discusses the challenges and opportunities in developing and adapting ML techniques for modern electric power systems, with a particular focus on power distribution systems. These systems play a crucial role in transforming the electric power sector and accommodating emerging distributed technologies to mitigate the impacts of climate change and accelerate the transition to a sustainable energy future. The objective of this article is not to provide an exhaustive overview of the state-of-the-art in the literature, but rather to make the topic accessible to readers with an engineering or computer science background and an interest in the field of ML for PES, thereby encouraging cross-disciplinary research in this rapidly developing field. To this end, the article discusses the ways in which ML can contribute to addressing the evolving operational challenges facing power distribution systems and identifies relevant application areas that exemplify the potential for ML to make near-term contributions. At the same time, key considerations for the practical implementation of ML in power distribution systems are discussed, along with suggestions for several potential future directions.

Marković, Marija (ORCID:0000000247839837)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Machine-Learning Enabled Evaluation of Probability of Piping Degradation In Secondary Systems of Nuclear Power Plants

The transition to condition-based, risk-informed automated maintenance will contribute to a significant reduction of operations and maintenance costs that account for the majority of nuclear power generation costs. Furthermore, of the operations and maintenance costs in U.S. plants, approximately 80% are labor costs. To address the issue of rising operating costs and economic viability, technologies used to perform online monitoring of piping and other secondary system structural components in commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs) are under evaluation. These online monitoring systems have the potential to identify when a more detailed inspection is needed using real time measurements, rather than at a pre-determined inspection interval thus reducing the maintenance cost. This paper describes distributed high-temperature stable fiber sensors fabricated in optical fibers through a roll-to-roll laser direct writing process using femtosecond lasers. Using phase-sensitive optical time domain reflectometry, distributed acoustic and vibration sensors can be developed and deployed to critical components and systems in NPPs to perform active measurements with spatial resolution down to 0.5-meter throughout the piping systems. Complex acoustic and vibration signatures harnessed by distributed sensors are registered and analyzed by artificial intelligence algorithms for degradation detection and flaw identification. Piping elbows with machined-in flaws were instrumented with fiber sensors. High-spatial-resolution data were used to develop and validate machine learning algorithms, including both linear and nonlinear regression, and classification. Additionally, classification and sensor analysis were also performed for data analysis. The paper concludes with recommendations and future work on applications of machine learning enabled high-resolution fiber sensors for piping degradation monitoring in current or future NPPs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids: Preprint

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. Different types of DERs such as Photovoltaics (PV), energy storage, electric vehicles (EVs), etc. have varying effects on the grid based on how and where they are deployed. Again, the DER deployment and its impact are network-dependent, while the traditional electric grids were not designed to host DERs. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper investigates the impacts of integrating a mix of DERs in the utility distribution network in Colorado, U.S. Firstly, BTM DERs at the residential scale including distributed PV; battery energy storage systems (BESS); heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load; electric water heater (EWH) load; and EVs are modeled. The impacts of integrating these resources on the distribution network are evaluated by conducting time-series simulations for different scenarios considering different days to capture the worst-case conditions. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to generate the realistic EV charging profile. The voltage issues, substation transformer loadings, and critical nodes in the network are identified with the incorporation of uncoordinated EV charging loads and other DER in the network. This analysis helps visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges, and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient distribution grid operations. Additionally, further analysis is performed to estimate the daily residential electricity cost with the inclusion of DERs under time-of-use tariffs. The result shows the daily residential electricity cost reduced by 20:7% on average with DERs compared to the case without DERs.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of hardened cement degradation and estimation of uncertainty in predicted failure times with peridynamics

Modeling the degradation of cement-based infrastructure due to aqueous environmental conditions continues to be a challenge. In order to develop a capability to predict concrete infrastructure failure due to chemical degradation, here we created a chemomechanical model of the effects of long-term water exposure on cement paste. The model couples the mechanical static equilibrium balance with reactive–diffusive transport and incorporates fracture and failure via peridynamics (a meshless simulation method). The model includes fundamental aspects of degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste, including the observed softening, reduced toughness, and shrinkage of the cement paste, and increased reactivity and transport with water induced degradation. This version of the model focuses on the first stage of cement paste decalcification, the dissolution of portlandite. Given unknowns in the cement paste degradation process and the cost of uncertainty quantification (UQ), we adopt a minimally complex model in two dimensions (2D) in order to perform sensitivity analysis and UQ. We calibrate the model to existing experimental data using simulations of common tests such as flexure, compression and diffusion. Then we calculate the global sensitivity and uncertainty of predicted failure times based on variation of eleven unique and fundamental material properties. We observed particularly strong sensitivities to the diffusion coefficient, the reaction rate, and the shrinkage with degradation. Also, the predicted time of first fracture is highly correlated with the time to total failure in compression, which implies fracture can indicate impending degradation induced failure; however, the distributions of the two events overlap so the lead time may be minimal. Extension of the model to include the multiple reactions that describe complete degradation, viscous relaxation, post-peak load mechanisms, and to three dimensions to explore the interactions of complex fracture patterns evoked by more realistic geometry is straightforward and ongoing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrated edge-to-exascale workflow for real-time steering in neutron scattering experiments

We introduce a computational framework that integrates artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and high-performance computing to enable real-time steering of neutron scattering experiments using an edge-to-exascale workflow. Focusing on time-of-flight neutron event data at the Spallation Neutron Source, our approach combines temporal processing of four-dimensional neutron event data with predictive modeling for multidimensional crystallography. At the core of this workflow is the Temporal Fusion Transformer model, which provides voxel-level precision in predicting 3D neutron scattering patterns. The system incorporates edge computing for rapid data preprocessing and exascale computing via the Frontier supercomputer for large-scale AI model training, enabling adaptive, data-driven decisions during experiments. This framework optimizes neutron beam time, improves experimental accuracy, and lays the foundation for automation in neutron scattering. Although real-time experiment steering is still in the proof-of-concept stage, the demonstrated potential of this system offers a substantial reduction in data processing time from hours to minutes via distributed training, and significant improvements in model accuracy, setting the stage for widespread adoption across neutron scattering facilities and more efficient exploration of complex material systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time-series elemental imaging reveals CAX-dependent redistribution patterns for anoxia recovery

Flooding-induced oxygen deprivation (anoxia) is a challenge to plant survival, necessitating adaptive mechanisms for recovery. This study investigated elemental redistribution during anoxia recovery using time-series elemental imaging to show changes in nutrient distribution. Focusing on the role of Cation/H + Exchangers (CAXs) in Arabidopsis thaliana, we show how mutants deficient in specific CAX transporters (cax1 and the cax1-4 quadruple mutant) respond to anoxia and metal stress. Mutants showed reduced lipid peroxidation and increased expression of flood-tolerance proteins during recovery. X-ray fluorescence microscopy and laser ablation–inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry were used to show elemental redistribution over time. In wild-type plants (Col-0), post-anoxia elemental distribution resembled the elemental distribution of CAX mutants under normoxic conditions, suggesting that CAX-mediated elemental distribution before anoxia enables faster recovery post-anoxia, rather than affecting remobilization post-anoxia. Although CAX mutants had altered tolerance to excess manganese and copper, leaf metal distribution during metal stress was not altered. Here, these findings introduce the potential utility of time-series elemental imaging to show stress-response phenotypes and the importance of elemental distribution to recovery after anoxia. The novelty of this work lies in resolving spatial distribution patterns in a non-static system to gain insight into mechanisms of stress resilience in plants.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Employing Interacting Qubits for Distributed Microgrid Control

To empower flexible and scalable operations, distributed control of multi-inverter microgrids, based on classical communication networks among distributed energy resources, has attracted considerable attention as it can guarantee synchronization and provide suitable remedies to the problem of improper power sharing. Notwithstanding this, resilience of the current schemes on classical communication makes microgrids vulnerable to cyber attacks. Inspired by recent revolutionary breakthroughs in quantum communication, in this paper, we devise a novel synchronization mechanism. We extend the synchronization framework utilized in distributed control algorithms to networks of quantum systems by generating pinning terms and coupling mechanism for the new synchronization rule via exploiting proper quantum jump operators and observables, and show that the quantum system will converge to a time-variant target state. Our devised quantum distributed controller (QDC) gives rise to a novel quantum communication scheme for distributed control of microgrids and enables microgrids to exploit the state-of-the-art quantum communication frameworks as communication infrastructure. Finally, test results on two representative AC and DC networked microgrids validate the efficacy and universality of the quantum distributed control.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Proof-of-concept of a reinforcement learning framework for wind farm energy capture maximization in time-varying wind

Here, we present a proof-of-concept distributed reinforcement learning framework for wind farm energy capture maximization. The algorithm we propose uses Q-Learning in a wake-delayed wind farm environment and considers time-varying, though not yet fully turbulent, wind inflow conditions. These algorithm modifications are used to create the Gradient Approximation with Reinforcement Learning and Incremental Comparison (GARLIC) framework for optimizing wind farm energy capture in time-varying conditions, which is then compared to the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) static lookup table wind farm controller baseline.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Inference of Induced Fracture Geometries Using Fiber-Optic Distributed Strain Sensing in Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2

Fiber-optic Distributed Strain Sensor observations in a vertical well allow rapid inference of the time evolution of nearby hydraulic fracture heights and their vertical aperture distributions during stimulation and depressurization. We describe a computationally efficient deconvolutional model based on an elastostatic kernel for fracture opening within an isotropic, homogeneous, linear elastic medium. Furthermore, an application of this model to observations from the Hydraulic Fracture Test Site 2 reveals that ultimate fracture heights are typically greater than those indicated by microseismic monitoring, and some hydraulic fractures continue their upward growth for several hours after high-pressure injections ceased.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Online Joint Optimization–Estimation Architecture for Distribution Networks

Here in this article, we propose an optimal joint optimization-estimation architecture for distribution networks, which jointly solves the optimal power flow (OPF) problem and static state estimation (SE) problem through an online gradient-based feedback algorithm. The main objective is to enable a fast and timely interaction between the OPF decisions and state estimators with limited sensor measurements. First, convergence and optimality of the proposed algorithm are analytically established. Then, the proposed gradient-based algorithm is modified by introducing statistical information of the inherent estimation and linearization errors for an improved and robust performance of the online OPF decisions. Overall, the proposed method eliminates the traditional separation of operation and monitoring, where optimization and estimation usually operate at distinct layers and different time scales. Hence, it enables a computationally affordable, efficient, and robust online operational framework for distribution networks under time-varying settings.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessment and Commissioning of Electrical Substation Grid Testbed with a Real-Time Simulator and Protective Relays/Power Meters in the Loop

Electrical utility substations are wired with intelligent electronic devices (IEDs), such as protective relays, power meters, and communication switches. Substation engineers commission these IEDs to assess the appropriate measurements for monitoring, control, power system protection, and communication applications. Like real electrical utility substations, complex electrical substation grid testbeds (ESGTs) need to be assessed for measuring current and voltage signals in monitoring, power system protection, control (synchro check), and communication applications that are limited by small measurement percentage errors. In the process of setting an ESGT with real-time simulators and IEDs in the loop, protective relays, power meters, and communication devices must be commissioned before running experiments. In this study, an ESGT with IEDs and distributed ledger technology was developed. The ESGT with a real-time simulator and IEDs in the loop was satisfactorily assessed and commissioned. The commissioning and problem-solving tasks of the testbed are described to define a method with flowcharts to assess possible trouble-shooting in ESGTs. This method was based on comparing the simulations versus IED measurements for the phase current and voltage magnitudes, three-phase phasor diagrams, breaker states, protective relay times with selectivity coordination at electrical faults, communication data points, and time-stamp sources.

Piesciorovsky, Emilio↗

DOE OSTI2024

The trailing edge is everywhere: tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

Given the importance of climate in shaping species’ geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data—such that individuals at the cool edge of a species’ distribution should benefit from warming (the “leading edge”), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the “trailing edge”). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species’ distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming—the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species’ distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species’ distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗