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DOE OSTI2014

A one-time truncate and encode multiresolution stochastic framework

In this work a novel adaptive strategy for stochastic problems, inspired from the classical Harten's framework, is presented. The proposed algorithm allows building, in a very general manner, stochastic numerical schemes starting from a whatever type of deterministic schemes and handling a large class of problems, from unsteady to discontinuous solutions. Its formulations permits to recover the same results concerning the interpolation theory of the classical multiresolution approach, but with an extension to uncertainty quantification problems. The present strategy permits to build numerical scheme with a higher accuracy with respect to other classical uncertainty quantification techniques, but with a strong reduction of the numerical cost and memory requirements. Moreover, the flexibility of the proposed approach allows to employ any kind of probability density function, even discontinuous and time varying, without introducing further complications in the algorithm. The advantages of the present strategy are demonstrated by performing several numerical problems where different forms of uncertainty distributions are taken into account, such as discontinuous and unsteady custom-defined probability density functions. In addition to algebraic and ordinary differential equations, numerical results for the challenging 1D Kraichnan–Orszag are reported in terms of accuracy and convergence. Finally, a two degree-of-freedom aeroelastic model for a subsonic case is presented. Though quite simple, the model allows recovering some physical key aspect, on the fluid/structure interaction, thanks to the quasi-steady aerodynamic approximation employed. The injection of an uncertainty is chosen in order to obtain a complete parameterization of the mass matrix. All the numerical results are compared with respect to classical Monte Carlo solution and with a non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Improved statistical models for limited datasets in uncertainty quantification using stochastic collocation

This paper presents a data-driven framework for performing uncertainty quantification (UQ) by choosing a stochastic model that accurately describes the sources of uncertainty in a system. This model is propagated through an appropriate response surface function that approximates the behavior of this system using stochastic collocation. Given a sample of data describing the uncertainty in the inputs, our goal is to estimate a probability density function (PDF) using the kernel moment matching (KMM) method so that this PDF can be used to accurately reproduce statistics like mean and variance of the response surface function. Instead of constraining the PDF to be optimal for a particular response function, we show that we can use the properties of stochastic collocation to make the estimated PDF optimal for a wide variety of response functions. We contrast this method with other traditional procedures that rely on the Maximum Likelihood approach, like kernel density estimation (KDE) and its adaptive modification (AKDE). We argue that this modified KMM method tries to preserve what is known from the given data and is the better approach when the available data is limited in quantity. We test the performance of these methods for both univariate and multivariate density estimation by sampling random datasets from known PDFs and then measuring the accuracy of the estimated PDFs, using the known PDF as a reference. Comparing the output mean and variance estimated with the empirical moments using the raw data sample as well as the actual moments using the known PDF, we show that the KMM method performs better than KDE and AKDE in predicting these moments with greater accuracy. This improvement in accuracy is also demonstrated for the case of UQ in electrostatic and electrothermomechanical microactuators. We show how our framework results in the accurate computation of statistics in micromechanical systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

A domain decomposition method of stochastic PDEs: An iterative solution techniques using a two-level scalable preconditioner

Recent advances in high performance computing systems and sensing technologies motivate computational simulations with extremely high resolution models with capabilities to quantify uncertainties for credible numerical predictions. A two-level domain decomposition method is reported in this investigation to devise a linear solver for the large-scale system in the Galerkin spectral stochastic finite element method (SSFEM). In particular, a two-level scalable preconditioner is introduced in order to iteratively solve the large-scale linear system in the intrusive SSFEM using an iterative substructuring based domain decomposition solver. The implementation of the algorithm involves solving a local problem on each subdomain that constructs the local part of the preconditioner and a coarse problem that propagates information globally among the subdomains. The numerical and parallel scalabilities of the two-level preconditioner are contrasted with the previously developed one-level preconditioner for two-dimensional flow through porous media and elasticity problems with spatially varying non-Gaussian material properties. A distributed implementation of the parallel algorithm is carried out using MPI and PETSc parallel libraries. The scalabilities of the algorithm are investigated in a Linux cluster.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Implicit and explicit schemes for mass consistency preservation in hybrid particle/finite-volume algorithms for turbulent reactive flows

This work addresses the issue of particle mass consistency in Large Eddy Simulation/Probability Density Function (LES/PDF) methods for turbulent reactive flows. Numerical schemes for the implicit and explicit enforcement of particle mass consistency (PMC) are introduced, and their performance is examined in a representative LES/PDF application, namely the Sandia–Sydney Bluff-Body flame HM1. A new combination of interpolation schemes for velocity and scalar fields is found to better satisfy PMC than multilinear and fourth-order Lagrangian interpolation. A second-order accurate time-stepping scheme for stochastic differential equations (SDE) is found to improve PMC relative to Euler time stepping, which is the first time that a second-order scheme is found to be beneficial, when compared to a first-order scheme, in an LES/PDF application. An explicit corrective velocity scheme for PMC enforcement is introduced, and its parameters optimized to enforce a specified PMC criterion with minimal corrective velocity magnitudes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic superparameterization in quasigeostrophic turbulence

In this article we expand and develop the authors' recent proposed methodology for efficient stochastic superparameterization algorithms for geophysical turbulence. Geophysical turbulence is characterized by significant intermittent cascades of energy from the unresolved to the resolved scales resulting in complex patterns of waves, jets, and vortices. Conventional superparameterization simulates large scale dynamics on a coarse grid in a physical domain, and couples these dynamics to high-resolution simulations on periodic domains embedded in the coarse grid. Stochastic superparameterization replaces the nonlinear, deterministic eddy equations on periodic embedded domains by quasilinear stochastic approximations on formally infinite embedded domains. The result is a seamless algorithm which never uses a small scale grid and is far cheaper than conventional SP, but with significant success in difficult test problems. Various design choices in the algorithm are investigated in detail here, including decoupling the timescale of evolution on the embedded domains from the length of the time step used on the coarse grid, and sensitivity to certain assumed properties of the eddies (e.g. the shape of the assumed eddy energy spectrum). We present four closures based on stochastic superparameterization which elucidate the properties of the underlying framework: a ‘null hypothesis’ stochastic closure that uncouples the eddies from the mean, a stochastic closure with nonlinearly coupled eddies and mean, a nonlinear deterministic closure, and a stochastic closure based on energy conservation. The different algorithms are compared and contrasted on a stringent test suite for quasigeostrophic turbulence involving two-layer dynamics on a β-plane forced by an imposed background shear. The success of the algorithms developed here suggests that they may be fruitfully applied to more realistic situations. They are expected to be particularly useful in providing accurate and efficient stochastic parameterizations for use in ensemble-based state estimation and prediction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Stochastic solution of population balance equations for reactor networks

This work presents a sequential modular approach to solve a generic network of reactors with a population balance model using a stochastic numerical method. Full-coupling to the gas-phase is achieved through operator-splitting. The convergence of the stochastic particle algorithm in test networks is evaluated as a function of network size, recycle fraction and numerical parameters. These test cases are used to identify methods through which systematic and statistical error may be reduced, including by use of stochastic weighted algorithms. The optimal algorithm was subsequently used to solve a one-dimensional example of silicon nanoparticle synthesis using a multivariate particle model. This example demonstrated the power of stochastic methods in resolving particle structure by investigating the transient and spatial evolution of primary polydispersity, degree of sintering and TEM-style images. Highlights: •An algorithm is presented to solve reactor networks with a population balance model. •A stochastic method is used to solve the population balance equations. •The convergence and efficiency of the reported algorithms are evaluated. •The algorithm is applied to simulate silicon nanoparticle synthesis in a 1D reactor. •Particle structure is reported as a function of reactor length and time.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Subgrid-scale model for radiative transfer in turbulent participating media

The simulation of turbulent flows of radiating gases, taking into account all turbulence length scales with an accurate radiation transport solver, is computationally prohibitive for high Reynolds or Rayleigh numbers. This is particularly the case when the small structures are not optically thin. We develop in this paper a radiative transfer subgrid model suitable for the coupling with direct numerical simulations of turbulent radiating fluid flows. Owing to the linearity of the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE), the emission source term is spatially filtered to define large-scale and subgrid-scale radiation intensities. The large-scale or filtered intensity is computed with a standard ray tracing method on a coarse grid, and the subgrid intensity is obtained analytically (in Fourier space) from the Fourier transform of the subgrid emission source term. A huge saving of computational time is obtained in comparison with direct ray tracing applied on the fine mesh. Model accuracy is checked for three 3D fluctuating temperature fields. The first field is stochastically generated and allows us to discuss the effects of the filtering level and of the optical thicknesses of the whole medium, of the integral length scale, and of the cutoff wave length. The second and third cases correspond respectively to turbulent natural convection of humid air in a cubical box, and to the flow of hot combustion products inside a channel. In all cases, the achieved accuracy on radiative powers and wall fluxes is about a few percents.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

A stochastic Galerkin method for the Euler equations with Roe variable transformation

The Euler equations subject to uncertainty in the initial and boundary conditions are investigated via the stochastic Galerkin approach. We present a new fully intrusive method based on a variable transformation of the continuous equations. Roe variables are employed to get quadratic dependence in the flux function and a well-defined Roe average matrix that can be determined without matrix inversion. In previous formulations based on generalized polynomial chaos expansion of the physical variables, the need to introduce stochastic expansions of inverse quantities, or square roots of stochastic quantities of interest, adds to the number of possible different ways to approximate the original stochastic problem. We present a method where the square roots occur in the choice of variables, resulting in an unambiguous problem formulation. The Roe formulation saves computational cost compared to the formulation based on expansion of conservative variables. Moreover, the Roe formulation is more robust and can handle cases of supersonic flow, for which the conservative variable formulation fails to produce a bounded solution. For certain stochastic basis functions, the proposed method can be made more effective and well-conditioned. This leads to increased robustness for both choices of variables. We use a multi-wavelet basis that can be chosen to include a large number of resolution levels to handle more extreme cases (e.g. strong discontinuities) in a robust way. For smooth cases, the order of the polynomial representation can be increased for increased accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

An ensemble Kalman filter for statistical estimation of physics constrained nonlinear regression models

A central issue in contemporary science is the development of nonlinear data driven statistical–dynamical models for time series of noisy partial observations from nature or a complex model. It has been established recently that ad-hoc quadratic multi-level regression models can have finite-time blow-up of statistical solutions and/or pathological behavior of their invariant measure. Recently, a new class of physics constrained nonlinear regression models were developed to ameliorate this pathological behavior. Here a new finite ensemble Kalman filtering algorithm is developed for estimating the state, the linear and nonlinear model coefficients, the model and the observation noise covariances from available partial noisy observations of the state. Several stringent tests and applications of the method are developed here. In the most complex application, the perfect model has 57 degrees of freedom involving a zonal (east–west) jet, two topographic Rossby waves, and 54 nonlinearly interacting Rossby waves; the perfect model has significant non-Gaussian statistics in the zonal jet with blocked and unblocked regimes and a non-Gaussian skewed distribution due to interaction with the other 56 modes. We only observe the zonal jet contaminated by noise and apply the ensemble filter algorithm for estimation. Numerically, we find that a three dimensional nonlinear stochastic model with one level of memory mimics the statistical effect of the other 56 modes on the zonal jet in an accurate fashion, including the skew non-Gaussian distribution and autocorrelation decay. On the other hand, a similar stochastic model with zero memory levels fails to capture the crucial non-Gaussian behavior of the zonal jet from the perfect 57-mode model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Adaptive approximation of higher order posterior statistics

Filtering is an approach for incorporating observed data into time-evolving systems. Instead of a family of Dirac delta masses that is widely used in Monte Carlo methods, we here use the Wiener chaos expansion for the parametrization of the conditioned probability distribution to solve the nonlinear filtering problem. The Wiener chaos expansion is not the best method for uncertainty propagation without observations. Nevertheless, the projection of the system variables in a fixed polynomial basis spanning the probability space might be a competitive representation in the presence of relatively frequent observations because the Wiener chaos approach not only leads to an accurate and efficient prediction for short time uncertainty quantification, but it also allows to apply several data assimilation methods that can be used to yield a better approximate filtering solution. The aim of the present paper is to investigate this hypothesis. We answer in the affirmative for the (stochastic) Lorenz-63 system based on numerical simulations in which the uncertainty quantification method and the data assimilation method are adaptively selected by whether the dynamics is driven by Brownian motion and the near-Gaussianity of the measure to be updated, respectively.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

An adaptive ANOVA-based PCKF for high-dimensional nonlinear inverse modeling

The probabilistic collocation-based Kalman filter (PCKF) is a recently developed approach for solving inverse problems. It resembles the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) in every aspect—except that it represents and propagates model uncertainty by polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) instead of an ensemble of model realizations. Previous studies have shown PCKF is a more efficient alternative to EnKF for many data assimilation problems. However, the accuracy and efficiency of PCKF depends on an appropriate truncation of the PCE series. Having more polynomial chaos basis functions in the expansion helps to capture uncertainty more accurately but increases computational cost. Selection of basis functions is particularly important for high-dimensional stochastic problems because the number of polynomial chaos basis functions required to represent model uncertainty grows dramatically as the number of input parameters (random dimensions) increases. In classic PCKF algorithms, the PCE basis functions are pre-set based on users' experience. Also, for sequential data assimilation problems, the basis functions kept in PCE expression remain unchanged in different Kalman filter loops, which could limit the accuracy and computational efficiency of classic PCKF algorithms. To address this issue, we present a new algorithm that adaptively selects PCE basis functions for different problems and automatically adjusts the number of basis functions in different Kalman filter loops. The algorithm is based on adaptive functional ANOVA (analysis of variance) decomposition, which approximates a high-dimensional function with the summation of a set of low-dimensional functions. Thus, instead of expanding the original model into PCE, we implement the PCE expansion on these low-dimensional functions, which is much less costly. We also propose a new adaptive criterion for ANOVA that is more suited for solving inverse problems. The new algorithm was tested with different examples and demonstrated great effectiveness in comparison with non-adaptive PCKF and EnKF algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Computation of probabilistic hazard maps and source parameter estimation for volcanic ash transport and dispersion

Volcanic ash advisory centers are charged with forecasting the movement of volcanic ash plumes, for aviation, health and safety preparation. Deterministic mathematical equations model the advection and dispersion of these plumes. However initial plume conditions – height, profile of particle location, volcanic vent parameters – are known only approximately at best, and other features of the governing system such as the windfield are stochastic. These uncertainties make forecasting plume motion difficult. As a result of these uncertainties, ash advisories based on a deterministic approach tend to be conservative, and many times over/under estimate the extent of a plume. This paper presents an end-to-end framework for generating a probabilistic approach to ash plume forecasting. This framework uses an ensemble of solutions, guided by Conjugate Unscented Transform (CUT) method for evaluating expectation integrals. This ensemble is used to construct a polynomial chaos expansion that can be sampled cheaply, to provide a probabilistic model forecast. The CUT method is then combined with a minimum variance condition, to provide a full posterior pdf of the uncertain source parameters, based on observed satellite imagery. The April 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland is employed as a test example. The puff advection/dispersion model is used to hindcast the motion of the ash plume through time, concentrating on the period 14–16 April 2010. Variability in the height and particle loading of that eruption is introduced through a volcano column model called bent. Output uncertainty due to the assumed uncertain input parameter probability distributions, and a probabilistic spatial-temporal estimate of ash presence are computed.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Basis adaptation in homogeneous chaos spaces

We present a new method for the characterization of subspaces associated with low-dimensional quantities of interest (QoI). The probability density function of these QoI is found to be concentrated around one-dimensional subspaces for which we develop projection operators. Our approach builds on the properties of Gaussian Hilbert spaces and associated tensor product spaces.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

An efficient particle Fokker–Planck algorithm for rarefied gas flows

This paper is devoted to the algorithmic improvement and careful analysis of the Fokker–Planck kinetic model derived by Jenny et al. [1] and Gorji et al. [2]. The motivation behind the Fokker–Planck based particle methods is to gain efficiency in low Knudsen rarefied gas flow simulations, where conventional direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) becomes expensive. This can be achieved due to the fact that the resulting model equations are continuous stochastic differential equations in velocity space. Accordingly, the computational particles evolve along independent stochastic paths and thus no collision needs to be calculated. Therefore the computational cost of the solution algorithm becomes independent of the Knudsen number. In the present study, different computational improvements were persuaded in order to augment the method, including an accurate time integration scheme, local time stepping and noise reduction. For assessment of the performance, gas flow around a cylinder and lid driven cavity flow were studied. Convergence rates, accuracy and computational costs were compared with respect to DSMC for a range of Knudsen numbers (from hydrodynamic regime up to above one). In all the considered cases, the model together with the proposed scheme give rise to very efficient yet accurate solution algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Noise propagation in hybrid models of nonlinear systems: The Ginzburg–Landau equation

Every physical phenomenon can be described by multiple models with varying degrees of fidelity. The computational cost of higher fidelity models (e.g., molecular dynamics simulations) is invariably higher than that of their lower fidelity counterparts (e.g., a continuum model based on differential equations). While the former might not be suitable for large-scale simulations, the latter are not universally valid. Hybrid algorithms provide a compromise between the computational efficiency of a coarse-scale model and the representational accuracy of a fine-scale description. This is achieved by conducting a fine-scale computation in subdomains where it is absolutely required (e.g., due to a local breakdown of a continuum model) and coupling it with a coarse-scale computation in the rest of a computational domain. We analyze the effects of random fluctuations generated by the fine-scale component of a nonlinear hybrid on the hybrid's overall accuracy and stability. Two variants of the time-dependent Ginzburg–Landau equation (GLE) and their discrete representations provided by a nearest-neighbor Ising model serve as a computational testbed. Our analysis shows that coupling these descriptions in a one-dimensional simulation leads to erroneous results. Adding a random source term to the GLE provides accurate prediction of the mean behavior of the quantity of interest (magnetization). It also allows the two GLE variants to correctly capture the strength of the microscale fluctuations. Our work demonstrates the importance of fine-scale noise in hybrid simulations, and suggests the need for replacing an otherwise deterministic coarse-scale component of the hybrid with its stochastic counterpart.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

Connecting the dots: Semi-analytical and random walk numerical solutions of the diffusion–reaction equation with stochastic initial conditions

We study a system with bimolecular irreversible kinetic reaction A+B→∅ where the underlying transport of reactants is governed by diffusion, and the local reaction term is given by the law of mass action. We consider the case where the initial concentrations are given in terms of an average and a white noise perturbation. Our goal is to solve the diffusion–reaction equation which governs the system, and we tackle it with both analytical and numerical approaches. To obtain an analytical solution, we develop the equations of moments and solve them approximately. To obtain a numerical solution, we develop a grid-less Monte Carlo particle tracking approach, where diffusion is modeled by a random walk of the particles, and reaction is modeled by annihilation of particles. The probability of annihilation is derived analytically from the particles' co-location probability. We rigorously derive the relationship between the initial number of particles in the system and the amplitude of white noise represented by that number. This enables us to compare the particle simulations and the approximate analytical solution and offer an explanation of the late time discrepancies. - Graphical abstract:.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2014

A stochastic thermostat algorithm for coarse-grained thermomechanical modeling of large-scale soft matters: Theory and application to microfilaments

As all-atom molecular dynamics method is limited by its enormous computational cost, various coarse-grained strategies have been developed to extend the length scale of soft matters in the modeling of mechanical behaviors. However, the classical thermostat algorithm in highly coarse-grained molecular dynamics method would underestimate the thermodynamic behaviors of soft matters (e.g. microfilaments in cells), which can weaken the ability of materials to overcome local energy traps in granular modeling. Based on all-atom molecular dynamics modeling of microfilament fragments (G-actin clusters), a new stochastic thermostat algorithm is developed to retain the representation of thermodynamic properties of microfilaments at extra coarse-grained level. The accuracy of this stochastic thermostat algorithm is validated by all-atom MD simulation. This new stochastic thermostat algorithm provides an efficient way to investigate the thermomechanical properties of large-scale soft matters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗