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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Statistical Framework for Planning a Shelf Life Program with Binary Performance Data

This document outlines a statistical framework for establishing a shelf-life program for components whose performance is measured by a binary response, usually ‘pass’ or ‘fail.’ The approach applies to both single measurement devices and repeated measurement devices. The high-level objective of these plans is to quickly detect any sizeable increase in fraction defective as the product ages. The statistical approach is to choose a sample size and monitoring technique that alarms when the fraction defective increases to an unacceptably high level, but does not alarm when the process is at nominal. The nominal (acceptable) fraction defective is used, and an increased fraction defective (unacceptable) is assumed as part of the control chart design. The control chart recommended for this problem is the Bernoulli Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control chart.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

An asymptotic approach for the statistical thermodynamics of certain model systems

In classical statistical thermodynamics, calculating the configuration integral is both vital and elusive. Analytic relations for configuration integrals are desirable for modeling purposes, but it is typically impossible to obtain them. Certain systems become analytically tractable after replacing steep potential energies with harmonic potentials or athermal rigid constraints, but these approximations are often inadequate, especially when modeling the stretching of molecules. It is therefore necessary to develop a systematic approach to improve upon the approximations provided by these reference systems. Here, a general asymptotic approach is introduced, where the configuration integral for the full system is obtained in terms of that of the reference system and several corrections. This asymptotic approach is first demonstrated using the simple example of a classical three-dimensional oscillator. Next, the approach is applied to modeling the stretching of single polymer chains and to modeling thermally assisted crack growth, where results are verified with respect to numerical calculations. Overall, this asymptotic approach is a valid and effective tool for statistical thermodynamics in general.

Buche, Michael Robert↗
DOE OSTI2020

New high statistics results from the MINERvA experiment Medium Energy run

The MINERvA experiment has completed its physics run using the 6 GeV, on-axis NuMI ME beam at Fermilab. The experiment received a total of 12 x 10^20 protons on target in both neutrino and antineutrino mode running. This allows MINERvA a new level of statistics in neutrino interaction measurements with the ability to measure multi-dimensional differential cross sections. In addition, in order to make the most of this jump in statistics, a new level of precision in fluxprediction has been achieved. We present results from MINERvA's Medium Energy (ME) physics program, including the new kinematic regimes that are now accessible.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The DESI-Lensing Mock Challenge: large-scale cosmological analysis of 3x2-pt statistics

The current generation of large galaxy surveys will test the cosmological model by combining multiple types of observational probes. Realising the statistical promise of these new datasets requires rigorous attention to all aspects of analysis including cosmological measurements, modelling, covariance and parameter likelihood. In this paper we present the results of an end-to-end simulation study designed to test the analysis pipeline for the combination of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Year 1 galaxy redshift dataset and separate weak gravitational lensing information from the Kilo-Degree Survey, Dark Energy Survey and Hyper-Suprime-Cam Survey. Our analysis employs the 3x2-pt correlation functions including cosmic shear and galaxy-galaxy lensing, together with the projected correlation function of the spectroscopic DESI lenses. We build realistic simulations of these datasets including galaxy halo occupation distributions, photometric redshift errors, weights, multiplicative shear calibration biases and magnification. We calculate the analytical covariance of these correlation functions including the Gaussian, noise and super-sample contributions, and show that our covariance determination agrees with estimates based on the ensemble of simulations. We use a Bayesian inference platform to demonstrate that we can recover the fiducial cosmological parameters of the simulation within the statistical error margin of the experiment, investigating the sensitivity to scale cuts. This study is the first in a sequence of papers in which we present and validate the large-scale 3x2-pt cosmological analysis of DESI-Y1.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A novel statistical methodology for quantifying the spatial arrangements of axons in peripheral nerves

A thorough understanding of the neuroanatomy of peripheral nerves is required for a better insight into their function and the development of neuromodulation tools and strategies. In biophysical modeling, it is commonly assumed that the complex spatial arrangement of myelinated and unmyelinated axons in peripheral nerves is random, however, in reality the axonal organization is inhomogeneous and anisotropic. Present quantitative neuroanatomy methods analyze peripheral nerves in terms of the number of axons and the morphometric characteristics of the axons, such as area and diameter. In this study, we employed spatial statistics and point process models to describe the spatial arrangement of axons and Sinkhorn distances to compute the similarities between these arrangements (in terms of first- and second-order statistics) in various vagus and pelvic nerve cross-sections. We utilized high-resolution transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images that have been segmented using a custom-built high-throughput deep learning system based on a highly modified U-Net architecture. Our findings show a novel and innovative approach to quantifying similarities between spatial point patterns using metrics derived from the solution to the optimal transport problem. We also present a generalizable pipeline for quantitative analysis of peripheral nerve architecture. Our data demonstrate differences between male- and female-originating samples and similarities between the pelvic and abdominal vagus nerves.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Damage and Failure in a Statistical Crack Model

In this paper I will take a close look at a statistical crack model (SCM) as is used in engineering computer codes to simulate fracture at high strain rates. My general goal is to understand the macroscopic behavior effected by the microphysical processes incorporated into an SCM. More specifically, I will assess the importance of including local interactions between cracks into the growth laws of an SCM. My strategy will be to construct a numerical laboratory that represents a single computational cell containing a realization of a statistical distribution of cracks. The cracks will evolve by the microphysical models of the SCM, leading to quantifiable damage and failure of the computational cell. I will use the numerical data generated by randomly generated ensembles of the fracture process to establish scaling laws that will modify and simplify the implementation of the SCM into large scale engineering codes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Statistical Steady-State Stability Analysis for Transmission System Planning for Offshore Wind Power Plant Integration

This paper presents a statistical steady-state stability analysis for transmission system planning studies in order to identify operational issues inherent in the integration of offshore wind power plants. It includes normal and contingency operation. This study considers the integration of a 1000-MW offshore wind power plant into the FirstEnergy/PJM service territory in the U.S. Great Lakes region as a case study and uses a realistic computer model of the U.S. Eastern Interconnection, a 63,000-bus test system. The results show the utility of this statistical analysis tool and its effectiveness in identification of the operational impacts as a result of the integration of offshore wind power plant.

Sajadi, Amirhossein↗
DOE OSTI2024

Square Root Statistics of Density Matrices and Their Applications

To estimate the degree of quantum entanglement of random pure states, it is crucial to understand the statistical behavior of entanglement indicators such as the von Neumann entropy, quantum purity, and entanglement capacity. These entanglement metrics are functions of the spectrum of density matrices, and their statistical behavior over different generic state ensembles have been intensively studied in the literature. As an alternative metric, in this work, we study the sum of the square root spectrum of density matrices, which is relevant to negativity and fidelity in quantum information processing. In particular, we derive the finite-size mean and variance formulas of the sum of the square root spectrum over the Bures–Hall ensemble, extending known results obtained recently over the Hilbert–Schmidt ensemble.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical Characterization of Temperature and Pressure Vertical Profiles for the Analysis of Laser Heterodyne Radiometry Data

The statistical analysis of historic pressure and temperature profiles from radiosonde launches for use in the fitting of molecular oxygen line shapes is presented. As the O 2 mixing ratio is nearly constant throughout the lower atmosphere, only variations in pressure and temperature profiles will affect the fit of observed O 2 features in Laser Heterodyne Radiometry (LHR) spectra. Radiosonde temperature and pressure data are extracted from the Integrated Global Radiosonde Archive (IGRA) for a given station, date, and launch time. Data may be extracted for a single launch, for the same date over several years, and/or within a window centered on a target date. The temperature and pressure profiles are further characterized by the statistical variation in coefficients of polynomial fits in altitude. The properties of the probability distributions for each coefficient are used to constrain fits of O 2 line shapes through Nelder–Mead optimization. The refined temperature and pressure profiles are then used in the retrieval of vertically resolved mixing ratios for greenhouse gases (GHGs) measured in the same instrument. In continuous collections, each vertical profile determination may be treated as a Bayesian prior to inform subsequent measurements and provide an estimate of uncertainties.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Statistical Analysis for the Neutrinoless Double-Beta Decay Matrix Element of 136Xe

Neutrinoless double beta decay nuclear matrix element (M0ν) for 136Xe was recently analyzed using a statistical approach (Phys. Rev. C 107, 045501 (2023)). In the analysis, three initial shell model effective Hamiltonians were randomly altered, and their results for 23 measured observables were used to infer credibility for the M0ν nuclear matrix element (NME) based on a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. In that analysis, a reasonable Gamow-Teller quenching factor of 0.7 was assumed for each starting effective Hamiltonian. Given that the result of the statistical analysis was sensible to this choice, we are here improving that analysis by assuming that the Gamow-Teller quenching factor is also randomly chosen within reasonabe limits for all three starting Hamiltonians. The outcomes are slightly higher expectation values and uncertainties for the M0ν NME.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2016

DETERMINING TYPE Ia SUPERNOVA HOST GALAXY EXTINCTION PROBABILITIES AND A STATISTICAL APPROACH TO ESTIMATING THE ABSORPTION-TO-REDDENING RATIO R{sub V}

We investigate limits on the extinction values of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) to statistically determine the most probable color excess, E(B – V), with galactocentric distance, and use these statistics to determine the absorption-to-reddening ratio, R{sub V}, for dust in the host galaxies. We determined pixel-based dust mass surface density maps for 59 galaxies from the Key Insight on Nearby Galaxies: a Far-infrared Survey with Herschel (KINGFISH). We use SN Ia spectral templates to develop a Monte Carlo simulation of color excess E(B – V) with R{sub V} = 3.1 and investigate the color excess probabilities E(B – V) with projected radial galaxy center distance. Additionally, we tested our model using observed spectra of SN 1989B, SN 2002bo, and SN 2006X, which occurred in three KINGFISH galaxies. Finally, we determined the most probable reddening for Sa–Sap, Sab–Sbp, Sbc–Scp, Scd–Sdm, S0, and irregular galaxy classes as a function of R/R{sub 25}. We find that the largest expected reddening probabilities are in Sab–Sb and Sbc–Sc galaxies, while S0 and irregular galaxies are very dust poor. We present a new approach for determining the absorption-to-reddening ratio R{sub V} using color excess probability functions and find values of R{sub V} = 2.71 ± 1.58 for 21 SNe Ia observed in Sab–Sbp galaxies, and R{sub V} = 1.70 ± 0.38, for 34 SNe Ia observed in Sbc–Scp galaxies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

STATISTICAL DECOUPLING OF A LAGRANGIAN FLUID PARCEL IN NEWTONIAN COSMOLOGY

The Lagrangian dynamics of a single fluid element within a self-gravitational matter field is intrinsically non-local due to the presence of the tidal force. This complicates the theoretical investigation of the nonlinear evolution of various cosmic objects, e.g., dark matter halos, in the context of Lagrangian fluid dynamics, since fluid parcels with given initial density and shape may evolve differently depending on their environments. In this paper, we provide a statistical solution that could decouple this environmental dependence. After deriving the evolution equation for the probability distribution of the matter field, our method produces a set of closed ordinary differential equations whose solution is uniquely determined by the initial condition of the fluid element. Mathematically, it corresponds to the projected characteristic curve of the transport equation of the density-weighted probability density function (ρPDF). Consequently it is guaranteed that the one-point ρPDF would be preserved by evolving these local, yet nonlinear, curves with the same set of initial data as the real system. Physically, these trajectories describe the mean evolution averaged over all environments by substituting the tidal tensor with its conditional average. For Gaussian distributed dynamical variables, this mean tidal tensor is simply proportional to the velocity shear tensor, and the dynamical system would recover the prediction of the Zel’dovich approximation (ZA) with the further assumption of the linearized continuity equation. For a weakly non-Gaussian field, the averaged tidal tensor could be expanded perturbatively as a function of all relevant dynamical variables whose coefficients are determined by the statistics of the field.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

A COMPREHENSIVE STATISTICAL DESCRIPTION OF RADIO-THROUGH- γ -RAY SPECTRAL ENERGY DISTRIBUTIONS OF ALL KNOWN BLAZARS

We combined multi-wavelength data for blazars from the Roma-BZCAT catalog and analyzed hundreds of X-ray spectra. We present the fluxes and spectral energy distributions (SEDs), in 12 frequency bands from radio to γ -rays, for a final sample of 2214 blazars. Using a model-independent statistical approach, we looked for systematic trends in the SEDs; the most significant trends involved the radio luminosities and X-ray spectral indices of the blazars. We used a principal component analysis (PCA) to determine the basis vectors of the blazar SEDs and, in order to maximize the size of the sample, imputed missing fluxes using the K -nearest neighbors method. Using more than an order of magnitude more data than was available when Fossati et al. first reported trends of SED shape with blazar luminosity, we confirmed the anti-correlation between radio luminosity and synchrotron peak frequency, although with greater scatter than was seen in the smaller sample. The same trend can be seen between bolometric luminosity and synchrotron peak frequency. Finally, we used all of the available blazar data to determine an empirical SED description that depends only on the radio luminosity at 1.4 GHz and the redshift. We verified that this statistically significant relation was not a result of the luminosity–luminosity correlations that are natural in flux-limited samples (i.e., where the correlation is actually caused by the redshift rather than the luminosity).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bioverse: A Simulation Framework to Assess the Statistical Power of Future Biosignature Surveys

Next-generation space observatories will conduct the first systematic surveys of terrestrial exoplanet atmospheres and search for evidence of life beyond Earth. While in-depth observations of the nearest habitable worlds may yield enticing results, there are fundamental questions about planetary habitability and evolution that can only be answered through population-level studies of dozens to hundreds of terrestrial planets. To determine the requirements for next-generation observatories to address these questions, we have developed Bioverse. Bioverse combines existing knowledge of exoplanet statistics with a survey simulation and hypothesis testing framework to determine whether proposed space-based direct imaging and transit-spectroscopy surveys will be capable of detecting various hypothetical statistical relationships between the properties of terrestrial exoplanets. Following a description of the code, we apply Bioverse to determine whether an ambitious direct imaging or transit survey would be able to determine the extent of the circumstellar habitable zone and study the evolution of Earth-like planets. Given recent evidence that Earth-sized habitable zone planets are likely much rarer than previously believed, we find that space missions with large search volumes will be necessary to study the population of terrestrial and habitable worlds. Moving forward, Bioverse provides a methodology for performing trade studies of future observatory concepts to maximize their ability to address population-level questions, including and beyond the specific examples explored here.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Evaluating Optical Classification for Fermi Blazar Candidates with a Statistical Method Using Broadband Spectral Indices

We aim to test whether a blazar candidate of uncertain type (BCU) in the third Fermi catalog of active galactic nuclei (3LAC) can be potentially classified as a BL Lac object or a flat-spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ) by performing a statistical analysis of its broadband spectral properties. We find that 34% of the radio-selected BCUs (583 BCUs) are BL Lac-like and 20% are FSRQ-like, at a 90% level of confidence. Similarly, 77.3% of the X-ray-selected BCUs (176 BCUs) are evaluated as BL Lac-like and 6.8% may be FSRQ-like sources. And 88.7% of the BL Lac-like BCUs that have synchrotron peak frequencies available are high synchrotron peaked BL Lacs in the X-ray-selected BCUs. The percentages are accordingly 62% and 7.3% in the sample of 124 optically selected BCUs. The high ratio of the number of BL Lac-like sources to the number of FSRQ-like BCUs in the X-ray-selected and optically selected BCU samples is due to selection effects. Examining the consistency between our evaluation and spectroscopic identification case by case with a sample of 78 radio-selected BCUs, it is found that the statistical analysis and its resulting classifications agree with the results of the optical follow-up spectroscopic observations. Our observation campaign for high-|ρ{sub s}| BCUs selected with our method, i.e., |ρ{sub s}|>0.8, is ongoing.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Statistical Detection of the He ii Transverse Proximity Effect: Evidence for Sustained Quasar Activity for >25 Million Years

The He ii transverse proximity effect—enhanced He ii Lyα transmission in a background sightline caused by the ionizing radiation of a foreground quasar—offers a unique opportunity to probe the morphology of quasar-driven He ii reionization. We conduct a comprehensive spectroscopic survey to find z∼3 quasars in the foreground of 22 background quasar sightlines with Hubble Space Telescope/COS He ii Lyα transmission spectra. With our two-tiered survey strategy, consisting of a deep pencil-beam survey and a shallow wide-field survey, we discover 131 new quasars, which we complement with known SDSS/BOSS quasars in our fields. Using a restricted sample of 66 foreground quasars with inferred He ii photoionization rates greater than the expected UV background at these redshifts (Γ{sub QSO}{sup He II}>5×10{sup −16} s{sup −1}) we perform the first statistical analysis of the He ii transverse proximity effect. Our results show qualitative evidence for a large object-to-object variance: among the four foreground quasars with the highest Γ{sub QSO}{sup He II} only one (previously known) quasar is associated with a significant He ii transmission spike. We perform a stacking analysis to average down these fluctuations, and detect an excess in the average He ii transmission near the foreground quasars at 3σ significance. This statistical evidence for the transverse proximity effect is corroborated by a clear dependence of the signal strength on Γ{sub QSO}{sup He II}. Our detection places a purely geometrical lower limit on the quasar lifetime of t{sub Q}>25 Myr. Improved modeling would additionally constrain quasar obscuration and the mean free path of He ii-ionizing photons.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

CHIME/FRB Catalog 1 Results: Statistical Cross-correlations with Large-scale Structure

The CHIME/FRB Project has recently released its first catalog of fast radio bursts (FRBs), containing 492 unique sources. Here, we present results from angular cross-correlations of CHIME/FRB sources with galaxy catalogs. We find a statistically significant (p-value ~ 10 –4 , accounting for look-elsewhere factors) cross-correlation between CHIME FRBs and galaxies in the redshift range 0.3 ≲ z ≲ 0.5, in three photometric galaxy surveys: WISE × SCOS, DESI-BGS, and DESI-LRG. The level of cross-correlation is consistent with an order-one fraction of the CHIME FRBs being in the same dark matter halos as survey galaxies in this redshift range. We find statistical evidence for a population of FRBs with large host dispersion measure (~400 pc cm –3 ) and show that this can plausibly arise from gas in large halos (M ~ 10 14 M ⊙ ), for FRBs near the halo center (r ≲ 100 kpc). These results will improve in future CHIME/FRB catalogs, with more FRBs and better angular resolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Association between the Candidate Repeating FRB 20200320A and a Galaxy Group

Abstract We present results from angular cross correlations between select samples of CHIME/FRB repeaters and galaxies in three photometric galaxy surveys, which have shown correlations with the first CHIME/FRB catalog containing repeating and nonrepeating sources: Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) × SCOS, DESI-BGS, and DESI-LRG. We find a statistically significant correlation (p-value <0.001, after accounting for look-elsewhere factors) between a sample of repeaters with an extragalactic dispersion measure (DM) > 395 pc cm −3 and WISE × SCOS galaxies with redshiftz> 0.275. We demonstrate that the correlation arises surprisingly because of a statistical association between FRB 20200320A (extragalactic DM ≈ 550 pc cm −3 ) and a galaxy group in the same dark matter halo at redshiftz≈ 0.32. We estimate that the host halo, along with an intervening halo at redshiftz≈ 0.12, accounts for at least ∼30% of the extragalactic DM. Our results strongly motivate incorporating galaxy group and cluster catalogs into direct host association pipelines for FRBs with ≲ 1 ′ localization precision, effectively utilizing the two-point information to constrain FRB properties such as their redshift and DM distributions. In addition, we find marginal evidence for a negative correlation at 99.4% confidence limit between a sample of repeating FRBs with baseband data (median extragalactic DM = 354 pc cm −3 ) and DESI-LRG galaxies with redshift 0.3 ≤z< 0.45, suggesting that the repeaters might be more prone than apparent nonrepeaters to propagation effects in FRB–galaxy correlations due to intervening free electrons over angular scales ∼0.°5.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗