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At least 829 records · Page 46

A Comparison of Perturbed Initial Conditions and Multiphysics Ensembles in a Severe Weather Episode in Spain

Ensembles of numerical model forecasts are of interest to operational early warning forecasters as the spread of the ensemble provides an indication of the uncertainty of the alerts, and the mean value is deemed to outperform the forecasts of the individual models. This paper explores two ensembles on a severe weather episode in Spain, aiming to ascertain the relative usefulness of each one. One ensemble uses sensible choices of physical parameterizations (precipitation microphysics, land surface physics, and cumulus physics) while the other follows a perturbed initial conditions approach. The results show that, depending on the parameterizations, large differences can be expected in terms of storm location, spatial structure of the precipitation field, and rain intensity. It is also found that the spread of the perturbed initial conditions ensemble is smaller than the dispersion due to physical parameterizations. This confirms that in severe weather situations operational forecasts should address moist physics deficiencies to realize the full benefits of the ensemble approach, in addition to optimizing initial conditions. The results also provide insights into differences in simulations arising from ensembles of weather models using several combinations of different physical parameterizations.

severe weather↗

The Geometric Spreading of Coronal Plumes and Coronal Holes

The geometric spreading in plumes and in the interplume region in coronal holes is calculated, using analytic and numerical theoretical models, between 1.0 and 5.0 solar radius. We apply two scale approximation that permits the rapid local spreading at the base of plumes to be evaluated separately from the global spreading imposed by coronal hole geometry. We show that fl can be computed from a potential field model and fg can be computed from global magnetohydrodynamic simulations of coronal structure. The approximations are valid when the plasma beta is small with respect to unity and for a plume separation small with respect to a solar radius.

Suess, S. T.↗

The Spatial Intensity Distribution of the UV Light in HH Objects. Revisited

Simple kinematical bow shock models have successfylly explained many of the observed features in Herbig-Haro objects. It is shown that similar models can be applied to the spatial intensity distribution of the UV lines observed by IUE. Archival IUE spectra have been used for the HH 1, HH 2(H+A'), HH 2(G+B), HH 24A, HH 32A, HH 43(A+B+C), and HH 47A objects where the brightest UV lines (C IV (lambda)1549,Si III(lambda)1891, C III] (lambda)1909, C II] (lambda)2326, MgII (lambda)2799) were studied, as well as the UV continuum (modeled by the hydrogen two-photon contiuum). The quality of the IUE data is rather limited due to the broad point spread function and the low signal-to-noise, and therefore the models were degraded to make them comparable to the observations. The physical parameters used in the models were obtained from previous optical studies and varied accordingly to match the observations, but within the known uncertainties. The objects were modeled by a single bow shock model (i.e., HH 1, HH 24A, HH 32A, and HH 47A) or the superposition of two (i.e., HH 2(H+A') and HH 2(G+B) or more (i.e., HH 43(A+B+C)) of them. The idea was to take into account the complexity of the morphology of these objects, and the contribution to the UV light from diffrent condensations within the IUE aperature.

Moro-Martin, A.↗

Time-dependent variational principle for mixed matrix product states in the thermodynamic limit

Here, we describe a time evolution algorithm for quantum spin chains whose Hamiltonians are composed of an infinite uniform left and right bulk part, and an arbitrary finite region in between. The left and right bulk parts are allowed to be different from each other. The algorithm is based on the time-dependent variational principle (TDVP) of matrix product states. It is inversion-free and very simple to adapt from an existing TDVP code for finite systems. The importance of working in the projective Hilbert space is highlighted. We study the quantum Ising model as a benchmark and an illustrative example. The spread of information after a local quench is studied in both the ballistic and the diffusive case. We also offer a derivation of TDVP directly from symplectic geometry.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Scoping review of Culex mosquito life history trait heterogeneity in response to temperature

Abstract Background Mosquitoes in the genus Culex are primary vectors in the US for West Nile virus (WNV) and other arboviruses. Climatic drivers such as temperature have differential effects on species-specific changes in mosquito range, distribution, and abundance, posing challenges for population modeling, disease forecasting, and subsequent public health decisions. Understanding these differences in underlying biological dynamics is crucial in the face of climate change. Methods We collected empirical data on thermal response for immature development rate, egg viability, oviposition, survival to adulthood, and adult lifespan for Culex pipiens, Cx. quinquefasciatus, Cx. tarsalis , and Cx. restuans from existing literature according to the PRISMA scoping review guidelines. Results We observed linear relationships with temperature for development rate and lifespan, and nonlinear relationships for survival and egg viability, with underlying variation between species. Optimal ranges and critical minima and maxima also appeared varied. To illustrate how model output can change with experimental input data from individual Culex species, we applied a modified equation for temperature-dependent mosquito type reproduction number for endemic spread of WNV among mosquitoes and observed different effects. Conclusions Current models often input theoretical parameters estimated from a single vector species; we show the need to implement the real-world heterogeneity in thermal response between species and present a useful data resource for researchers working toward that goal. Graphical Abstract

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Inferring transmission heterogeneity using virus genealogies: estimation and targeted prevention

Spread of HIV typically involves uneven transmission patterns where some individuals spread to a large number of individuals while others to only a few or none. Such transmission heterogeneity can impact how fast and how much an epidemic spreads. Further, more efficient interventions may be achieved by taking such transmission heterogeneity into account. To address these issues, we developed two phylogenetic methods based on virus sequence data: 1) to generally detect if significant transmission heterogeneity is present, and 2) to pinpoint where in a phylogeny high-level spread is occurring. We derive inference procedures to estimate model parameters, including the amount of transmission heterogeneity, in a sampled epidemic. We show that it is possible to detect transmission heterogeneity under a wide range of simulated situations, including incomplete sampling, varying levels of heterogeneity, and including within-host genetic diversity. When evaluating real HIV-1 data from different epidemic scenarios, we found a lower level of transmission heterogeneity in slowly spreading situations and a higher level of heterogeneity in data that included a rapid outbreak, while R0 and Sackin’s index (overall tree shape statistic) were similar in the two scenarios, suggesting that our new method is able to detect transmission heterogeneity in real data. We then show by simulations that targeted prevention, where we pinpoint high-level spread using a coalescence measurement, is efficient when sequence data are collected in an ongoing surveillance system. Such phylogeny-guided prevention is efficient under both single-step contact tracing as well as iterative contact tracing as compared to random intervention.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants (Final Technical Report)

This final report describes the methods and results of applying Spread Spectrum Time Domain Reflectivity (SSTDR) for String Monitoring in PV Power Plants for DE-EE0008169. The project created a new system for both detecting and locating electrical faults in photovoltaic systems. In this work, we address photovoltaic electric faults that are both common and costly. Based on interviews with photovoltaic power plant owners, operators, and maintainers, three types of faults are common and of significant interest: disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults. Disconnects can originate from many sources. They are often due to everyday events, such as lawnmowing (accidentally running over a cable), animals eating through the cables, or degradation that occurs over time due to corrosion or general degradation. Ground faults occur when the cables (for example, due to frayed insolation) connect to the ground, relaying current into the ground. These faults are particularly problematic since the ground faults are often intermittent. That is, ground faults commonly appear during rain storms due to a change in soil conductivity and then disappear when the rain ends. This makes the ground fault difficult to find because while current systems can detect the overall change in voltage and current associated with a ground fault, technicians are necessary to locate the fault. As a result, ground faults may disappear before the technician arrives at the power plant. Hence, locating and fixing ground faults often require multiple trips. We also study arc faults, which can result when nearby conductors create an arc of electrical current through the air. While less common, arc faults can be extremely dangerous. The energetic electrical arc can cause fires and destroy equipment, costing significant damage. Overall all three types of faults cost owners and operators money, either from the destruction of equipment or from technician time. Furthermore, while devices exist for detecting ground faults (ground fault circuit interrupters) and arc faults (arc fault circuit interrupter), these systems only search patterns of electrical current that correspond to each fault. This information cannot be used to locate the fault. In addition, these protection systems experience nuisance trips due to nearby electromagnetic interference, such as from a lawn mower or other motors that produce significant amounts of electromagnetic radiation. Hence, the overall goal of this project is to create an SSTDR tool that provides photovoltaic power plants with more reliable fault detection in addition to the localization of faults. SSTDR works by transmitting electrical signals into the photovoltaic string. Those signals reflect from impedance discontinuities (i.e., disconnects, ground faults, and arc faults). These faults are then detected by measuring the presence of a reflection at the SSTDR and can be located by identifying the location of that reflection in time. In addition, unlike current protection systems, these systems do not experience nuisance trips since their low amplitude, high frequency, and coded signal can by analyzed without interference from the regular operational voltage on the photovoltaic string.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A new model to study cell-to-cell transfer of αSynuclein in vivo

Highlights: • Parkinson's disease involved the loss of dopaminergic neurons associated with the accumulation of misfolded alpha-synuclein. • The neurodegeneration in Parkinson's disease spread through the brain by the transfer of alpha-synuclein from cell to cell. • The mechanisms involved alpha-synuclein secretion, uptake and spreading are not well understood. • In this study we developed a new model to monitor cell-to-cell transfer of alpha-Synuclein in vivo. Parkinson's disease (PD) compromises motor control due to the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta. At the histopathological level, PD is characterized by the accumulation of Lewy bodies, large protein inclusions containing aggregated αSynuclein (αSyn). The progression of PD involves the spreading of αSyn misfolding through the brain mediated by a prion-like mechanism, where the protein is transferred between cells. Here we report that αSyn internalization is a dynamic process, where the protein transits through different sub-cellular compartments. Importantly, cells incorporating αSyn develop larger protein-like inclusions when compared to αSyn producing cells. We developed a new tool to monitor cell-to-cell transfer of αSyn in vivo using an adeno-associated viral (AAV) vector expressing αSyn fused to a red fluorescent protein in addition to soluble EGFP to label donor cells. Intra-nigral delivery of this reporter AAV construct allowed the visualization of αSyn incorporation into surrounding neurons. This work provides a new tool to study αSyn cell-to-cell transfer in vivo and may open new opportunities to study PD pathogenesis.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Socioeconomically-inspired modeling to justify use of fine-grain mobility data

When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

A case study of the Weather Research and Forecasting model applied to the Joint Urban 2003 tracer field experiment. Part 2: Gas tracer dispersion

Here, the Quick Urban & Industrial Complex (QUIC) atmospheric transport, and dispersion modelling, system was evaluated against the Joint Urban 2003 tracer-gas measurements. This was done using the wind and turbulence fields computed by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. We compare the simulated and observed plume transport when using WRF-model-simulated wind fields, and local on-site wind measurements. Degradation of the WRF-model-based plume simulations was cased by errors in the simulated wind direction, and limitations in reproducing the small-scale wind-field variability. We explore two methods for importing turbulence from the WRF model simulations into the QUIC system. The first method uses parametrized turbulence profiles computed from WRF-model-computed boundary-layer similarity parameters; and the second method directly imports turbulent kinetic energy from the WRF model. Using the WRF model’s Mellor-Yamada-Janjic boundary-layer scheme, the parametrized turbulence profiles and the direct import of turbulent kinetic energy were found to overpredict and underpredict the observed turbulence quantities, respectively. Near-source building effects were found to propagate several km downwind. These building effects and the temporal/spatial variations in the observed wind field were often found to have a stronger influence over the lateral and vertical plume spread than the intensity of turbulence. Correcting the WRF model wind directions using a single observational location improved the performance of the WRF-model-based simulations, but using the spatially-varying flow fields generated from multiple observation profiles generally provided the best performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sensitivity of terrestrial precipitation trends to the structural evolution of sea surface temperatures

Abstract Pronounced intermodel differences in the projected response of land surface precipitation (LSP) to future anthropogenic forcing remain in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model integrations. A large fraction of the intermodel spread in projected LSP trends is demonstrated here to be associated with systematic differences in simulated sea surface temperature (SST) trends, especially the representation of changes in (i) the interhemispheric SST gradient and (ii) the tropical Pacific SSTs. By contrast, intermodel differences in global mean SST, representative of differing global climate sensitivities, exert limited systematic influence on LSP patterns. These results highlight the importance to regional terrestrial precipitation changes of properly simulating the spatial distribution of large‐scale, remote changes as reflected in the SST response to increasing greenhouse gases. Moreover, they provide guidance regarding which region‐specific precipitation projections may be potentially better constrained for use in climate change impact assessments.

Anderson, Bruce T.↗

Radiative natural supersymmetry emergent from the string landscape

In string theory with flux compactifications, anthropic selection for structure formation from a discretuum of vacuum energy values provides at present our only understanding of the tiny yet positive value of the cosmological constant. We apply similar reasoning to a toy model of the multiverse restricted to vacua with the MSSM as the low energy effective theory. Here, one expects a statistical selection favoring large soft SUSY breaking terms leading to a derived value of the weak scale in each pocket universe (with appropriate electroweak symmetry breaking) which differs from the weak scale as measured in our universe. In contrast, the SUSY preserving μ parameter is selected uniformly on a log scale as is consistent with the distribution of SM fermion masses: this favors smaller values of μ. An anthropic selection of the weak scale to within a factor of a few of our measured value — in order to produce complex nuclei as we know them (atomic principle) — provides statistical predictions for Higgs and sparticle masses in accord with LHC measurements. The statistical selection then more often leads to (radiatively-driven) natural SUSY models over the Standard Model or finely-tuned SUSY models such as mSUGRA/CMSSM, split, mini-split, spread, high scale or PeV SUSY. The predicted Higgs and superparticle spectra might be testable at HL-LHC or ILC via higgsino pair production but is certainly testable at higher energy hadron colliders with $ \sqrt{s}$ ~ 30–100 TeV.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

EBSD imaging of orientation relationships and variant groupings in different martensitic alloys and Widmanstätten iron meteorites

An automatic method to colorize and quantify the classical Pitsch, Kurdjumov–Sachs, Greninger–Troiano and Nishiyama–Wasserman orientation relationships in the electron backscatter diffraction maps of martensitic/bainitic steels is detailed. Automatic analysis of variant grouping is also presented. The method was applied to low and high carbon steels, and to iron–nickel Widmanstätten meteorites. Many results of recent literature are confirmed. In low carbon steels the individual laths exhibit continuous orientation gradients between the classical orientation relationships, and the laths tend to be grouped by close-packed plane (morphological) packets. A crystallographic scenario describing the formation of the packets is proposed on the base of the one-step model. When the carbon content increases, the orientation spreading is reduced; and martensite tends to form plate groups and burst configurations. In iron–nickel meteorites, the centimeter long Widmanstätten laths do not exhibit continuous orientation gradients but are constituted of subgrains with uniform orientation relationship; the kamacite grains in the plessite regions are grouped into Bain zones, probably due to a recrystallization during the slow cooling of the meteorites. - Highlights: • Analysis of different low and high carbon steels and Widmanstätten meteorites • Automatic color mapping of the classical orientation relationships in EBSD maps • Quantification of variant pairing and grouping tendencies • Crystallographic scenario for the formation of morphological packets.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sensitivity of Grass Fires Burning in Marginal Conditions to Atmospheric Turbulence

Abstract Atmospheric forcing and interactions between the fire and atmosphere are primary drivers of wildland fire behavior. The atmosphere is known to be a chaotic system that, although deterministic, is very sensitive to small perturbations to initial conditions. We assume that as a result of the tight coupling between fire and atmosphere; wildland fire behavior, in turn, should also be sensitive to perturbations in atmospheric initial conditions. Observations suggest that low intensity prescribed fire, in particular, is susceptible to small perturbations in the wind field, which can significantly alter fire spread. Here, we employ a computational fluid dynamics model of coupled fire‐atmosphere interactions to answer the question: How sensitive is fire behavior to small variations in atmospheric turbulence? We perform ensemble simulations of fires in homogenous grass fuels. The only difference between ensemble members is the state of the turbulent atmosphere provided to the model throughout the simulation. The atmospheric state is a function of the initial conditions applied at the start of the simulation and boundary conditions applied throughout the simulation. We find a wide range of outcomes, with area burned ranging from 2,212 to 11,236 m 2 (>400% change), driven primarily by sensitivity to initial conditions, with nonnegligible contributions from boundary condition variability during the initial 30 s of simulation. Our results highlight the need for ensemble simulations, especially when considering fire behavior in marginal burning conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Toward fully automated UED operation using two-stage machine learning model

To demonstrate the feasibility of automating UED operation and diagnosing the machine performance in real time, a two-stage machine learning (ML) model based on self-consistent start-to-end simulations has been implemented. This model will not only provide the machine parameters with adequate precision, toward the full automation of the UED instrument, but also make real-time electron beam information available as single-shot nondestructive diagnostics. Furthermore, based on a deep understanding of the root connection between the electron beam properties and the features of Bragg-diffraction patterns, we have applied the hidden symmetry as model constraints, successfully improving the accuracy of energy spread prediction by a factor of five and making the beam divergence prediction two times faster. The capability enabled by the global optimization via ML provides us with better opportunities for discoveries using near-parallel, bright, and ultrafast electron beams for single-shot imaging. It also enables directly visualizing the dynamics of defects and nanostructured materials, which is impossible using present electron-beam technologies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Phenalenyl growth reactions and implications for prenucleation chemistry of aromatics in flames

The energetics and kinetics of phenalene and phenalenyl growth reactions were studied theoretically. Rate constants of phenalene and phenalenyl H-abstraction and C 2 H 2 addition to the formed radicals were evaluated through quantum-chemical and rate-theory calculations. The obtained values, assigned to all π radicals, were tested in deterministic and kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of aromatics growth under conditions of laminar premixed flames. Kekulé and non-Kekulé structures of the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) evolving in the stochastic simulations were identified by on-the-fly constrained optimization. The numerical results demonstrated an increased PAH growth and qualitatively reproduced experimental observations of Homann and co-workers of non-decaying PAH concentrations with nearly equal abundances of even and odd carbon-atom PAHs. The analysis revealed that the PAH growth proceeds via alternating and sterically diverse acetylene and methyl HACA additions. Furthermore, the rapid and diverse spreading in the PAH population supports a nucleation model as PAH dimerization, assisted by the non-equilibrium phenomena, forming planar aromatics first and then transitioning to the PAH–PAH stacking with size.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Extension of the quantum-kinetic model to lunar and Mars return physics

The ability to compute rarefied, ionized hypersonic flows is becoming more important as missions such as Earth reentry, landing high-mass payloads on Mars, and the exploration of the outer planets and their satellites are being considered. A recently introduced molecular-level chemistry model, the quantum-kinetic, or Q-K, model that predicts reaction rates for gases in thermal equilibrium and non-equilibrium using only kinetic theory and fundamental molecular properties, is extended in the current work to include electronic energy level transitions and reactions involving charged particles. Like the Q-K procedures for neutral species chemical reactions, these new models are phenomenological procedures that aim to reproduce the reaction/transition rates but do not necessarily capture the exact physics. These engineering models are necessarily efficient due to the requirement to compute billions of simulated collisions in direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) simulations. The new models are shown to generally agree within the spread of reported transition and reaction rates from the literature for near equilibrium conditions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Charge breeders: Development of diagnostic tools to probe the underlying physics

Charge breeders were developed more than 20 years ago in the context of radioactive ion beam (RIB) production. The main goal is to boost the charge state of a singly charged RIB to a higher value matching the A/Q of a post-accelerator. In that way, the RIB produced at some tens of keV can efficiently be accelerated to energies in a range of few MeV/u up to several tens of MeV/u, which is of interest for nuclear structure and nuclear astrophysics experiments. Two families of charge breeders have been developed: one based on Electron Cyclotron Resonance Ion Sources (ECRISs) suitable for Continuous Wave (CW) operation and another built around Electron Beam Ion Sources (EBISs) used for pulsed post-accelerators. For many years, experimental studies have been carried out to enhance the charge breeding process and improve the extracted beam quality, i.e., purity, intensity, emittance, and time structure. The evolution of the charge breeders is also closely related to the emergence of new facilities delivering even more exotic beams. Diagnostic tools, such as Faraday cups, beam profile monitors, and emittance scanners, are mandatory to tune the machines and evaluate their performances. However, to go beyond that, a better understanding of plasma physics (in ECRIS) and electron-ion interactions (in EBIS), as well as the 1+ beam characteristics, for instance, energy spread transverse emittance, is needed. Therefore, simulation codes modeling the physics phenomena in both type of charge breeders were developed to support the understanding of experimental outputs and to gain insights into non-observable parameters. Nevertheless, more sophisticated diagnostic tools are required to improve the charge breeding performance and to extend the potential applications toward new RIB facilities. This Review will present the two kinds of charge breeders and their technical evolutions. It will review the diagnostic tools and simulation codes employed for operation and evaluation of the internal physics processes.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗