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At least 829 records · Page 46

Propagation predictions for the HF-range by the Research Institute of the Deutsche Bundespost

Long term and short term HF propagation prediction service is described. The long term prediction method is computer based. The short term prediction method is still a manual method which relies mainly on a number of continuous field strength recordings and on the forecaster's ability to interpret the recordings and to combine this information with all available solar-geophysical data. Examples of the predictions are given and are compared with actually observed HF propagation conditions.

Damboldt, T.↗

Atmospheric corrosion model and monitor for low cost solar arrays

An atmospheric corrosion model and corrosion monitoring system has been developed for low cost solar arrays (LSA). The corrosion model predicts that corrosion rate is the product of the surface condensation probability of water vapor and the diffusion controlled corrosion current. This corrosion model is verified by simultaneous monitoring of weather conditions and corrosion rates at the solar array test site at Mead, Nebraska.

Kaelble, D. H.↗

Direct solar-pumped iodine laser amplifier

The improvement on the collection system of the Tarmarack Solar Simulator beam was attemped. The basic study of evaluating the solid state laser materials for the solar pumping and also the work to construct a kinetic model algorithm for the flashlamp pumped iodine lasers were carried out. It was observed that the collector cone worked better than the lens assembly in order to collect the solar simulator beam and to focus it down to a strong power density. The study on the various laser materials and their lasing characteristics shows that the neodymium and chromium co-doped gadolinium scandium gallium garnet (Nr:Cr:GSGG) may be a strong candidate for the high power solar pumped solid state laser crystal. On the other hand the improved kinetic modeling for the flashlamp pumped iodine laser provides a good agreement between the theoretical model and the experimental data on the laser power output, and predicts the output parameters of a solar pumped iodine laser.

Han, Kwang S.↗

Resonance Scattering of Fe XVII X-ray and EUV Lines

Over the years a number of calculations have been carried out to derive intensities of various X-ray and EUV lines in Fe XVII to compare with observed spectra. The predicted intensities have not agreed with solar observations, particularly for the line at 1.5.02 Angstroms; resonance scattering has been suggested as the source for much of the disagreement. The atomic data calculated earlier used seven configurations having n=3 orbitals and the scattering calculations were carried out only for incident energies above the threshold of the highest fine-structure level. These calculations have now been extended to thirteen configurations having n=4 orbitals and the scattering calculations are carried out below as well as above the threshold of the highest fine structure level. These improved calculations of Fe XVII change the intensity ratios compared to those obtained earlier, bringing the optically thin F(15.02)/F(16.78) ratio and several other ratios closer to the observed values. However, some disagreement with the solar observations still persists, even thought the agreement of the presently calculated optically thin F(15.02)/F(15.26) ratio with the experimental results of Brown et al. (1998) and Laming et al. (2000) has improved. Some of the remaining discrepancy is still thought to be the effect of opacity, which is consistent with expected physical conditions for solar sources. EUV intensity ratios are also calculated and compared with observations. Level populations and intensity ratios are calculated, as a function of column density of Fe XVII, in the slab and cylindrical geometries. As found previously, the predicted intensities for the resonance lines at 15.02 and 15.26 Angstroms exhibit initial increases in flux relative to the forbidden line at 17.10 Angstroms and the resonance line at 16.78 Angstroms as optical thickness increases. The same behavior is predicted for the lines at 12.262 and 12.122 Angstroms. Predicted intensities for some of the allowed EUV lines are also affected by opacity.

Bhatia, A. K.↗

Assessing the Relative Risk of Aerocapture Using Probabalistic Risk Assessment

A recent study performed for the Aerocapture Technology Area in the In-Space Propulsion Technology Projects Office at the Marshall Space Flight Center investigated the relative risk of various capture techniques for Mars missions. Aerocapture has been proposed as a possible capture technique for future Mars missions but has been perceived by many in the community as a higher risk option as compared to aerobraking and propulsive capture. By performing a probabilistic risk assessment on aerocapture, aerobraking and propulsive capture, a comparison was made to uncover the projected relative risks of these three maneuvers. For mission planners, this knowledge will allow them to decide if the mass savings provided by aerocapture warrant any incremental risk exposure. The study focuses on a Mars Sample Return mission currently under investigation at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each case (propulsive, aerobraking and aerocapture), the Earth return vehicle is inserted into Martian orbit by one of the three techniques being investigated. A baseline spacecraft was established through initial sizing exercises performed by JPL's Team X. While Team X design results provided the baseline and common thread between the spacecraft, in each case the Team X results were supplemented by historical data as needed. Propulsion, thermal protection, guidance, navigation and control, software, solar arrays, navigation and targeting and atmospheric prediction were investigated. A qualitative assessment of human reliability was also included. Results show that different risk drivers contribute significantly to each capture technique. For aerocapture, the significant drivers include propulsion system failures and atmospheric prediction errors. Software and guidance hardware contribute the most to aerobraking risk. Propulsive capture risk is mainly driven by anomalous solar array degradation and propulsion system failures. While each subsystem contributes differently to the risk of each technique, results show that there exists little relative difference in the reliability of these capture techniques although uncertainty for the aerocapture estimates remains high given the lack of in-space demonstration.

Percy, Thomas K.↗

Short term prediction of E greater than or equal to 10 MeV proton fluxes from solar flares

Both the anisotropic and isotropic diffusion theories can be used to extrapolate proton fluxes for E greater than or equal to 10 meV for over 50% of the particle events. The isotropic diffusion theory uses a diffusion coefficient: D = Mr sup beta. It was found that M and beta tended to be functions of flare position on the solar disk. A measurement of the interplanetary flux in near earth space gives a good indication of the polar cap fluxes. It was found that the 30 MHz absorption over the poles during a PCA is proportional to the square root of the integral proton flux E greater than or equal to 11 meV in interplanetary space, J = KA squared, with K = 8 plus or minus 2 and J in protons/sq cm-sec-ster.

Kuck, G. A.↗

Computer-aided modeling and prediction of performance of the modified Lundell class of alternators in space station solar dynamic power systems

The main purpose of this project is the development of computer-aided models for purposes of studying the effects of various design changes on the parameters and performance characteristics of the modified Lundell class of alternators (MLA) as components of a solar dynamic power system supplying electric energy needs in the forthcoming space station. Key to this modeling effort is the computation of magnetic field distribution in MLAs. Since the nature of the magnetic field is three-dimensional, the first step in the investigation was to apply the finite element method to discretize volume, using the tetrahedron as the basic 3-D element. Details of the stator 3-D finite element grid are given. A preliminary look at the early stage of a 3-D rotor grid is presented.

Demerdash, Nabeel A. O.↗

Al-26 from red giants

Simplified models of thermally pulsing red giants are investigated, with particular emphasis on predicting the extent to which nuclear processing at the base of the convective envelope in conjunction with processing in the thermally unstable He shell can synthesize Al-26 (tau/1/2/ = 7.2 x 10 to the 5th yr). Values of Al-26/Al-27 of about 0.5-1, with Al-27/Al-27(solar) of about 1-2, are predicted in some cases. It is pointed out that such results can lead to isotope shifts in the absorption lines of AlH and AlO, which should be observationally identifiable in some late-type supergiants. The possible connection with the anomalous Mg-26 content (assigned to the decay of Al-26) detected in some meteorites and the connection with formation of the solar system are also touched on.

Norgaard, H.↗

The relationship of the large-scale solar field to the interplanetary magnetic field - What will Ulysses find?

Using photospheric magnetic field observations obtained at the Stanford Wilcox Solar Observatory, results from a potential field model for the present solar cycle are given, and qualitative predictions of the IMF that Ulysses may encounter are presented. Results indicate that the IMF consists of large regions of opposite polarity separated by a neutral sheet (NS) (extended to at least 50 deg) and a four-sector structure near solar minimum (produced by small quadripolar NS warps). The latitudinal extent of the NS increases following minimum and the structure near maximum includes multiple NSs, while a simplified IMF is found during the declining phase.

Hoeksema, J. T.↗

Prediction of geomagnetic activity

A simple analytic model for the directly driven, adiabatic solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling is derived on the basis of frontside reconnection and force balance in the tail. Magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling occurs through Alfven waves which are driven by changes of electric fields in the magnetosphere. The model provides an algorithm which calculates the directly driven part of the auroral electrojets from an observed solar wind variation. For two days in May 1979 the cross correlation between the prediction and observation of AE is greater than 0.9. This suggests that most of the geomagnetic activity during these two days was directly driven by the solar wind.

Goertz, C. K.↗

The neutral atomic phases of the interstellar medium

We calculate the thermal equilibrium gas temperature of the diffuse interstellar medium. Our method incorporates a new photoelectric heating rate from small grains and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) that accounts for a size distribution of particles extending from 100 to 3 A radius. We also include a detailed treatment of the ionization rates and heating due to the soft X-ray background and due to cosmic rays. Phase diagrams (thermal pressure P versus hydrogen density n) are presented for gas that is illuminated by local interstellar far-ultraviolet (FUV) and X-ray radiation fields. A stable two-phase medium is produced with thermal pressure in the range P/k approximately = to 10(exp 3-4) K/cc. We demonstrate that photoelectric heating from PAHs dominates in the warm neutral phase (WNM) and cold neutral phase (CNM). If the C II (158 micrometers cooling per hydrogen nucleus in the solar neighborhood represents an average value for the Galaxy, we predict L(sub CII) approximately = to 7 x 10(exp 7) solar luminosities from the CNM in the Galaxy, comparable to that observed by the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE). We discuss the dependence of the results on absorbing column density, gas phase abundances, dust abundances and metallicity, FUV field, and the X-ray radiation field. These results will be useful in modeling the multiphase structure of high-velocity clouds in the halo, the interstellar matter (ISM) at other galactocentric radii, and the ISM in external galaxies and galactic nuclei.

Wolfire, M. G.↗

POLAR Magnetosheath Observations on May 4,1998

The unusually high solar wind pressure and strongly southward IMF on May 4, 1998, pushed the magnetopause well into the geosynchronous orbit which exposed the POLAR satellite to the magnetosheath and solar wind. We use a gasdynamic convected field model to predict the magnetosheath quantities and then compare them with the in situ observations. The model prediction helps to reduce the uncertainty in the timing of the solar wind arrival time and provides a reference value for each physical parameter. It also helps to resolve the location of the satellite during strong magnetic fluctuations near the magnetopause. The plasma measurements from the TIDE instrument, in conjunction with the magnetometer measurements, indicate that there is a magnetospheric boundary layer during the event. There are also transient signatures near the magnetopause which may be caused by magnetospheric flux transfer events.

Kozyra, J. U.↗

Investigation of Solar Wind Correlations and Solar Wind Modifications Near Earth by Multi-Spacecraft Observations: IMP 8, WIND and INTERBALL-1

The foundation of this Project is use of the opportunity available during the ISTP (International Solar-Terrestrial Physics) era to compare solar wind measurements obtained simultaneously by three spacecraft - IMP 8, WIND and INTERBALL-1 at wide-separated points. Using these data allows us to study three important topics: (1) the size and dynamics of near-Earth mid-scale (with dimension about 1-10 million km) and small-scale (with dimension about 10-100 thousand km) solar wind structures; (2) the reliability of the common assumption that solar wind conditions at the upstream Lagrangian (L1) point accurately predict the conditions affecting Earth's magnetosphere; (3) modification of the solar wind plasma and magnetic field in the regions near the Earth magnetosphere, the foreshock and the magnetosheath. Our Project was dedicated to these problems. Our research has made substantial contributions to the field and has lead others to undertake similar work.

Paularena, Karolen I.↗

Computational Approaches for Clean Energy Materials

Currently, 80% of the global final energy consumption occurs in form of fuels and only 20% as electricity. On the other hand, renewable energy additions come almost exclusively in the form of electricity (dominantly photovoltaics and wind). Thus, a successful energy transition will require enormous growth in renewables, sufficient to convert excess electricity into fuels, as well as the development of non-electricity based solar fuel technologies. As much as photovoltaic capacities have grown over the past 20 years, it is far from clear that current technologies and materials are up to the task to grow from here by yet another factor 100 until 2050. Therefore, sustained research efforts on emerging inorganic semiconductors for solar electricity and fuels are essential for facing the double challenge of climate change and energy security. Computational materials science can make important contributions, guiding and supporting research activities through both materials search and discovery and through detailed studies that help to develop a mechanistic understanding of materials performance and bottlenecks. This presentation will highlight three recent computational projects with relevance for photovoltaics and solar fuels (1) Defect graph neural networks (dGNN) for materials discovery in solar thermochemical hydrogen (STCH) [1]. The dGNN approach facilitates broad and fast materials screening for defect properties. (2) Modeling highly off-stoichiometric systems by evaluating the free energy of defect interaction [2]. This approach allows quantitative prediction of H2 production in complex STCH oxides. (3) First-principles atomic structure prediction for interfaces [3]. This work showed how an atomically thin CdCl2 interlayer phase enables in principle ideal electron transport across the incommensurate SnO2/CdTe interface. [1] M.D. Witman, A. Goyal, T. Ogitsu, A.H. McDaniel, S. Lany, Nat. Comput. Sci. (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43588-023-00495-2. [2] A. Goyal, M.D. Sanders, R.P. O'Hayre, S. Lany, PRX Energy 3, 013008 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1103/PRXEnergy.3.013008. [3] A. Sharan, M. Nardone, D. Krasikov, N. Singh, S. Lany, Appl. Phys. Rev. 9, 041411 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0104008.

density functional theory↗

Solar flares and avalanches in driven dissipative systems

The contention of Lu and Hamilton (1991) that the energy release process in solar flares can be understood as avalanches of many small reconnection events is further developed. The dynamics of the complex magnetized plasma of solar active regions is modeled with a simple driven dissipative system, consisting of a vector field with local instabilities that cause rapid diffusion of the field. It is argued that the avalanches in this model are analogous to solar flares. The distributions of avalanches in this model are compared with the solar flare frequency distributions obtained from ISEE 3/ICE satellite observations. Quantitative agreement is found with the energy, peak luminosity, and duration distributions over four orders of magnitude in flare energy, from the largest flares down to the completeness limit of the observations. It is predicted that the power-law solar flare frequency distributions will be found to continue downward with the same logarithmic slopes to an energy of about 3 x 10 exp 25 ergs and duration of about 0.3 s, with deviations from power-law behavior below these values.

Lu, Edward T.↗

Mars surface radiation exposure for solar maximum conditions and 1989 solar proton events

The Langley heavy-ion/nucleon transport code, HZETRN, and the high-energy nucleon transport code, BRYNTRN, are used to predict the propagation of galactic cosmic rays (GCR's) and solar flare protons through the carbon dioxide atmosphere of Mars. Particle fluences and the resulting doses are estimated on the surface of Mars for GCR's during solar maximum conditions and the Aug., Sep., and Oct. 1989 solar proton events. These results extend previously calculated surface estimates for GCR's at solar minimum conditions and the Feb. 1956, Nov. 1960, and Aug. 1972 solar proton events. Surface doses are estimated with both a low-density and a high-density carbon dioxide model of the atmosphere for altitudes of 0, 4, 8, and 12 km above the surface. A solar modulation function is incorporated to estimate the GCR dose variation between solar minimum and maximum conditions over the 11-year solar cycle. By using current Mars mission scenarios, doses to the skin, eye, and blood-forming organs are predicted for short- and long-duration stay times on the Martian surface throughout the solar cycle.

Simonsen, Lisa C.↗

On the angle between the average interplanetary magnetic field and the propagation direction of plane large amplitude Alfven waves

The paper shows that the experimentally observed close alignment of magnetic field minimum variance direction with the average magnetic field for Alfven waves in the solar wind is consistent with theoretically predicted properties of plane large amplitude Alfven waves in the MHD approximation. The theoretical properties of these Alfven waves constrain the time averaged magnetic field to cluster around the direction of minimum variance, which is aligned with the wave normal. Thus, spacecraft magnetometer observations in the solar wind of minimum variance directions strongly peaked about the average magnetic field direction are consistent with plane large amplitude Alfven waves which have wave normals aligned with the directions of minimum variance. This does not imply that geometrical hydromagnetic calculations for Alfven wave propagation direction in the solar wind are incorrect, but there is a discrepancy between geometrical hydromagnetics theory and observations that IMF minimum variance directions tend to be aligned with the ideal Parker spiral instead of the radial direction.

Lichtenstein, B. R.↗

Computational techniques for solar wind flows past terrestrial planets: Theory and computer programs

The interaction of the solar wind with terrestrial planets can be predicted using a computer program based on a single fluid, steady, dissipationless, magnetohydrodynamic model to calculate the axisymmetric, supersonic, super-Alfvenic solar wind flow past both magnetic and nonmagnetic planets. The actual calculations are implemented by an assemblage of computer codes organized into one program. These include finite difference codes which determine the gas-dynamic solution, together with a variety of special purpose output codes for determining and automatically plotting both flow field and magnetic field results. Comparisons are made with previous results, and results are presented for a number of solar wind flows. The computational programs developed are documented and are presented in a general user's manual which is included.

Stahara, S. S.↗