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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Smoking, Alcohol, and Biliary Tract Cancer Risk: A Pooling Project of 26 Prospective Studies

Abstract Background Tobacco and alcohol are well-established risk factors for numerous cancers, yet their relationship to biliary tract cancers remains unclear. Methods We pooled data from 26 prospective studies to evaluate associations of cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption with biliary tract cancer risk. Study-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations with smoking and alcohol consumption were calculated. Random-effects meta-analysis produced summary estimates. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Over a period of 38 369 156 person-years of follow-up, 1391 gallbladder, 758 intrahepatic bile duct, 1208 extrahepatic bile duct, and 623 ampulla of Vater cancer cases were identified. Ever, former, and current smoking were associated with increased extrahepatic bile duct and ampulla of Vater cancers risk (eg, current vs never smokers HR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.34 to 2.13 and 2.22, 95% CI = 1.69 to 2.92, respectively), with dose-response effects for smoking pack-years, duration, and intensity (all Ptrend < .01). Current smoking and smoking intensity were also associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer (eg, >40 cigarettes per day vs never smokers HR = 2.15, 95 % CI = 1.15 to 4.00; Ptrend = .001). No convincing association was observed between smoking and gallbladder cancer. Alcohol consumption was only associated with intrahepatic bile duct cancer, with increased risk for individuals consuming five or more vs zero drinks per day (HR = 2.35, 95%CI = 1.46 to 3.78; Ptrend = .04). There was evidence of statistical heterogeneity among several cancer sites, particularly between gallbladder cancer and the other biliary tract cancers. Conclusions Smoking appears to increase the risk of developing all biliary tract cancers except gallbladder cancer. Alcohol may increase the risk of intrahepatic bile duct cancer. Findings highlight etiologic heterogeneity across the biliary tract.

McGee, Emma E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of implant loss risk factors after simultaneous guided bone regeneration: A retrospective study of 5404 dental implants

Abstract Purpose The purpose was to analyze the risk factors for implant loss after simultaneous guided bone regeneration (GBR). Materials and Methods Patients who underwent implant placement with simultaneous GBR between January 2011 and December 2018 were screened for this study. The cumulative survival rate (CSR) was calculated using the life table method. Log‐rank test and Kaplan–Meier survival estimates were used to identify potential risk factors for implant loss. The association between the investigated variables and implant loss was determined using hazard ratios (HRs) obtained from a multivariate Cox regression analysis. Results A total of 3973 patients with 5404 implants were included in this study. The CSRs of the implants at 1, 5, and 10 years were 99.6%, 98.9%, and 98.7%, respectively. Male patient (HR = 2.94, 95% CI: 1.41–6.14), periodontitis (HR = 4.26, 95% CI: 2.05–9.86), tissue‐level implants (HR = 3.02, 95% CI: 1.30–6.98), narrow implants (HR = 2.71, 95% CI: 1.12–6.57), and implant length ≤10 mm (HR = 2.91, 95% CI: 1.41–6.02) significantly increased the risk of implant loss ( p < 0.05). The risk of implant loss was significantly higher in the maxillary posterior region (HR = 2.26, 95% CI: 1.04–4.90) than in the maxillary anterior region ( p < 0.05). Compared to Straumann, Nobel (HR = 4.07, 95% CI: 1.75–9.44) and other implant systems (HR = 14.23, 95% CI: 4.32–46.85) showed a significantly higher risk of implant loss ( p < 0.05). Conclusion Male patient, periodontitis, maxillary posterior region, Nobel implant system, other implant systems, tissue‐level implants, narrow implants, and implant length ≤10 mm were considered risk factors for implant loss after simultaneous GBR.

Shen, Xiaoting↗
DOE OSTI2020

CHRNA5 rs16969968 polymorphism is associated with lung cancer risk: A meta‐analysis

Abstract Objective To evaluate the genetic association between rs16969968 and lung cancer risk by meta‐analysis. Data source We searched eligible studies from MEDLINE, Web of Science and EMBASE up to Dec, 2017. Study selection Association studies concerning rs16969968 and lung cancer risk were included. We assessed the association strength between this polymorphism and risk of lung cancer by calculating odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI). Results A total of 26 data sets comprising 30 772 lung cancers and 90 954 controls were included. rs16969968 was found to be associated with lung cancer risk in population of European ancestry in all models (A vs. G: OR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.27‐1.33, P < 0.001; AA + GA vs. GG: OR = 1.38, 95%CI 1.33‐1.43, P < 0.001; AA vs. GG + GA: OR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.38‐1.53, P < 0.001), consistent with previous genome‐wide association study (GWAS). However, no association was observed in Asians (A vs. G: OR = 1.19. 95%CI 0.95‐1.49, P = 0.131). The minor allele A may increase the risk of lung cancer in both smokers (OR = 1.33, 95%CI 1.29‐1.39, P < 0.001) and nonsmokers (OR = 1.25, 95%CI 1.12‐1.39, P < 0.001). There was no obvious publication bias in all analyses. Conclusions Our analysis provided more evidence that rs16969968 is a susceptibility locus of lung cancer in the Caucasians and that it may be not associated with the risk in the Asians.

Zhou, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Potential Impacts of Free Chlorine during Washing of Fresh-Cut Leafy Greens on Escherichia coli O157:H7 Cross-Contamination and Risk of Illness

Addition of chlorine-based antimicrobial substances to fresh-cut leafy green wash water is done to minimize microbial cross-contamination during processing. We developed the FDA Leafy Green Risk Assessment Model (FDA-LGRAM) to quantify the impact of free chlorine concentration in wash water during fresh-cut lettuce processing on the extent of water-mediated cross-contamination between shredded lettuce and the associated risk of illness due to exposure to Escherichia coli O157:H7. At different contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads, the model compared the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness per serving between: (1) a scenario where fresh-cut lettuce was packaged without washing; and (2) scenarios involving washing fresh-cut lettuce with different levels of free chlorine (0 ppm, 5 ppm, 10 ppm, 15 ppm, and 20 ppm) prior to packaging. Our results indicate that the free chlorine level in wash water has a substantial impact on the predicted prevalence of contaminated fresh-cut lettuce packages and the risk of illness associated with E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce. Results showed that the required level of free chlorine that can minimize water-mediated cross-contamination and reduce the corresponding risk of illness depended on contamination prevalence and levels of E. coli O157:H7 on incoming lettuce heads. Our model also indicated that the pathogen inactivation rate in wash water via free chlorine was a key model parameter that had a significant impact on the extent of cross-contamination during washing and the predicted associated risk of illness.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-D-9A-07: Imaging Dose and Cancer Risk in Image-Guided Radiotherapy of Cancers

Purpose: To systematically evaluate the imaging doses and cancer risks associated with various imaging procedures involving ionizing radiation during image-guided radiotherapy of an increasingly large number of cancer patients. Methods: 141 patients (52 brain cases, 47 thoracic cases, 42 abdominal cases, aged 3 to 91 years old) treated between October 2009 and March 2010 were included in this IRB-approved retrospective study. During the whole radiotherapy course, each patient underwent at least one type of imaging procedures, i.e., kV portal, MV portal and kVCBCT, besides CT simulations. Based on Monte Carlo modeling and particle transport in human anatomy of various dimensions, the correlations between the radiation doses to the various organs-at-risk (OARs) at the head, the thoracic and the abdominal regions and one's weight, circumference, scan mAs and kVp have been obtained and used to estimate the radiation dose from a specific imaging procedure. The radiation-induced excess relative risk (ERR) was then estimated with BEIR VII formulism based on one's gender, age and radiation dose. 1+ ERR was reported in this study as relative cancer risk. Results: For the whole cohort of 141 patients, the mean imaging doses from various imaging procedures were 8.3 cGy to the brain, 10.5 cGy to the lungs and 19.2 cGy to the red bone marrow, respectively. Accordingly, the cancer risks were 1.140, 1.369 and 2.671, respectively. In comparison, MV portal deposited largest doses to the lungs while kVCBCT delivered the highest doses to the red bone marrow. Conclusion: The compiled imaging doses to a patient during his/her treatment course were patient-specific and site-dependent, varying from 1.2 to 263.5 cGy on average, which were clinically significant and should be included in the treatment planning and overall decision-making. Our results indicated the necessity of personalized imaging to maximize its clinical benefits while reducing the associated cancer risks. Sichuan University Scholarship.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-208: Incidence Cancer Risk From the Radiation Treatment for Acoustic Neuroma Patient

Purpose: The present study aimed to compare the incidence risk of a secondary cancer from therapeutic doses in patients receiving intensitymodulated radiotherapy (IMRT), volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT), and stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods: Four acoustic neuroma patients were treated with IMRT, VMAT, or SRS. Their incidnece excess relative risk (ERR), excess absolute risk (EAR), and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) were estimated using the corresponding therapeutic doses measured at various organs by radio-photoluminescence glass dosimeters (RPLGD) placed inside a humanoid phantom. Results: When a prescription dose was delivered in the planning target volume of the 4 patients, the average organ equivalent doses (OED) at the thyroid, lung, normal liver, colon, bladder, prostate (or ovary), and rectum were measured. The OED decreased as the distance from the primary beam increased. The thyroid received the highest OED compared to other organs. A LAR were estimated that more than 0.03% of AN patients would get radiation-induced cancer. Conclusion: The tyroid was highest radiation-induced cancer risk after radiation treatment for AN. We found that LAR can be increased by the transmitted dose from the primary beam. No modality-specific difference in radiation-induced cancer risk was observed in our study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-I-54: Effective Dose and Radiation Cancer Risks for Scoliosis Patients Undergoing Full Spine Radiography

Purpose: Scoliotic patients underwent a lot of radiologic examinations during the control and treatment periods. This study used the PCXMC program to calculate the effective dose of the patients and assess the radiation cancer risks. Methods: Seventy five scoliotic patients were examined using CR or DR systems during the control and treatment periods in Chang Gung Memorial Hospital. The technical factors were recorded for each patient during his/her control and treatment period. The entrance surface dose was measured using thermoluminence dosimeters and derived from technical factors and irradiated geometry. The effective dose of patients and relative radiation cancer risks were calculated by the PCXMC program. All required information regarding patient age and sex, the x-ray spectra, and the tube voltage and current were registered. The radiation risk were estimated using the model developed by the BEIR VII committee (2006). Results: The effective doses of full spine radiography with anteroposterior and lateral projections were 0.626 mSv for patients using DR systems, and 0.483mSv for patients using CR systems, respectively. The dose using DR system was 29.6% higher than those using CR system. The maximum organ dose was observed in the breast for both projections in all the systems. The risk of exposure—induced cancer death (REID) of patients for DR and CR systems were 0.009% and 0.007%, respectively. Conclusion: The risk estimates were regarded with healthy skepticism, placed more emphasis on the magnitude of the risk. The effective doses estimated in this study could be served as a reference for radiologists and technologists and demonstrate the necessity to optimize patient protection for full spine radiography though the effective doses are not at the level to induce deterministic effects and not significant in the stochastic effect. This study was supported by the grants from the Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CMRPD1D0421)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Prediction Model of Risk Factors for COVID-19 Developing into Severe Illness Based on 1046 Patients with COVID-19

This study analyzed the risk factors for patients with COVID-19 developing severe illnesses and explored the value of applying the logistic model combined with ROC curve analysis to predict the risk of severe illnesses at COVID-19 patients’ admissions. The clinical data of 1046 COVID-19 patients admitted to a designated hospital in a certain city from July to September 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, the clinical characteristics of the patients were collected, and a multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for severe illnesses in COVID-19 patients during hospitalization. Based on the analysis results, a prediction model for severe conditions and the ROC curve were constructed, and the predictive value of the model was assessed. Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.257, 95% CI 10.466–18.584), complications with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 7.337, 95% CI 0.227–87.021), cough (OR = 5517, 95% CI 0.258–65.024), and venous thrombosis (OR = 7322, 95% CI 0.278–95.020) were risk factors for COVID-19 patients developing severe conditions during hospitalization. When complications were not taken into consideration, COVID-19 patients’ ages, number of diseases, and underlying diseases were risk factors influencing the development of severe illnesses. The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC that predicted the severity of COVID-19 patients at admission was 0.943, the optimal threshold was −3.24, and the specificity was 0.824, while the sensitivity was 0.827. The changes in the condition of severe COVID-19 patients are related to many factors such as age, clinical symptoms, and underlying diseases. This study has a certain value in predicting COVID-19 patients that develop from mild to severe conditions, and this prediction model is a useful tool in the quick prediction of the changes in patients’ conditions and providing early intervention for those with risk factors.

Lian, Zhichuang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Risk Factors and Trends for HPV-Associated Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms among Adolescent and Young Adult Cancer Survivors

Subsequent malignant neoplasms (SMN; new cancers that arise after an original diagnosis) contribute to premature mortality among adolescent and young adult (AYA) cancer survivors. Because of the high population prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, we identify demographic and clinical risk factors for HPV-associated SMNs (HPV-SMN) among AYA cancer survivors in the SEER-9 registries diagnosed from 1976 to 2015. Outcomes included any HPV-SMN, oropharyngeal-SMN, and cervical-SMN. Follow-up started 2 months after their original diagnosis. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) compared risk between AYA survivors and general population. Age-period-cohort (APC) models examined trends over time. Fine and Gray's models identified therapy effects controlling for cancer and demographic confounders. Of 374,408 survivors, 1,369 had an HPV-SMN, occurring on average 5 years after first cancer. Compared with the general population, AYA survivors had 70% increased risk for any HPV-SMN [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.61–1.79] and 117% for oropharyngeal-SMN (95% CI, 2.00–2.35); cervical-SMN risk was generally lower in survivors (SIR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76–0.95), but Hispanic AYA survivors had a 8.4 significant increase in cervical-SMN (SIR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.01–2.06). AYAs first diagnosed with Kaposi sarcoma, leukemia, Hodgkin, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma had increased HPV-SMN risks compared with the general population. Oropharyngeal-SMN incidence declined over time in APC models. Chemotherapy and radiation were associated with any HPV-SMN among survivors with first HPV-related cancers, but not associated among survivors whose first cancers were not HPV-related. HPV-SMN in AYA survivors are driven by oropharyngeal cancers despite temporal declines in oropharyngeal-SMN. Hispanic survivors are at risk for cervical-SMN relative to the general population. Encouraging HPV vaccination and cervical and oral cancer screenings may reduce HPV-SMN burden among AYA survivors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Building and using dynamic risk-informed diagnosis procedures for complex system accidents

Accidents pose unique challenges for operating crews in complex systems such as nuclear power plants, presenting limitations in plant status information and lack of detailed monitoring, diagnosis, and response planning support. Advances in severe accident simulation and dynamic probabilistic risk assessment provide an opportunity to garner detailed insight into accident scenarios. In this article, we demonstrate how to build and use a framework which leverages dynamic probabilistic risk assessment, simulation, and dynamic Bayesian networks to provide real-time monitoring and diagnostic support for severe accidents in a nuclear power plant. We use general purpose modeling technology, the dynamic Bayesian network, and adapt it for risk management of complex engineering systems. This article presents a prototype model for monitoring and diagnosing system states associated with loss of flow and transient overpower accidents in a generic sodium fast reactor. We discuss using this framework to create a risk-informed accident management framework called Safely Managing Accidental Reactor Transients procedures. This represents a new application of risk assessment, expanding probabilistic risk assessment techniques beyond static decision support into dynamic, real-time models which support accident diagnosis and management.

Groth, Katrina M.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Low dose radiation risks for women surviving the a-bombs in Japan: generalized additive model

Background: Analyses of cancer mortality and incidence in Japanese A-bomb survivors have been used to estimate radiation risks, which are generally higher for women. Relative Risk (RR) is usually modelled as a linear function of dose. Extrapolation from data including high doses predicts small risks at low doses. Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) are flexible methods for modelling non-linear behaviour. Methods: GAMs are applied to cancer incidence in female low dose subcohorts, using anonymous public data for the 1958 – 1998 Life Span Study, to test for linearity, explore interactions, adjust for the skewed dose distribution, examine significance below 100 mGy, and estimate risks at 10 mGy. Results: For all solid cancer incidence, RR estimated from 0 – 100 mGy and 0 – 20 mGy subcohorts is significantly raised. The response tapers above 150 mGy. At low doses, RR increases with age-at-exposure and decreases with time-since-exposure, the preferred covariate. Using the empirical cumulative distribution of dose improves model fit, and capacity to detect non-linear responses. RR is elevated over wide ranges of covariate values. Results are stable under simulation, or when removing exceptional data cells, or adjusting neutron RBE. Estimates of Excess RR at 10 mGy using the cumulative dose distribution are 10 – 45 times higher than extrapolations from a linear model fitted to the full cohort. Below 100 mGy, quasipoisson models find significant effects for all solid, squamous, uterus, corpus, and thyroid cancers, and for respiratory cancers when age-at-exposure > 35 yrs. Results for the thyroid are compatible with studies of children treated for tinea capitis, and Chernobyl survivors. Results for the uterus are compatible with studies of UK nuclear workers and the Techa River cohort. Conclusion: Non-linear models find large, significant cancer risks for Japanese women exposed to low dose radiation from the atomic bombings. The risks should be reflected in protection standards.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterizing juvenile salmon predation risk during early marine residence

Predation mortality can influence the distribution and abundance of fish populations. While predation is often assessed using direct observations of prey consumption, potential predation can be predicted from co-occurring predator and prey densities under varying environmental conditions. Juvenile Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. (i.e., smolts) from the Columbia River Basin experience elevated mortality during the transition from estuarine to ocean habitat, but a thorough understanding of the role of predation remains incomplete. We used a Holling type II functional response to estimate smolt predation risk based on observations of piscivorous seabirds (sooty shearwater [ Ardenna griseus ] and common murre [ Uria aalge ]) and local densities of alternative prey fish including northern anchovy ( Engraulis mordax ) in Oregon and Washington coastal waters during May and June 2010–2012. We evaluated predation risk relative to the availability of alternative prey and physical factors including turbidity and Columbia River plume area, and compared risk to returns of adult salmon. Seabirds and smolts consistently co-occurred at sampling stations throughout most of the study area (mean = 0.79 ± 0.41, SD), indicating that juvenile salmon are regularly exposed to avian predators during early marine residence. Predation risk for juvenile coho ( Oncorhynchus kisutch ), yearling Chinook salmon ( O . tshawytscha ), and subyearling Chinook salmon was on average 70% lower when alternative prey were present. Predation risk was greater in turbid waters, and decreased as water clarity increased. Juvenile coho and yearling Chinook salmon predation risk was lower when river plume surface areas were greater than 15,000 km 2 , while the opposite was estimated for subyearling Chinook salmon. These results suggest that plume area, turbidity, and forage fish abundance near the mouth of the Columbia River, all of which are influenced by river discharge, are useful indicators of potential juvenile salmon mortality that could inform salmonid management.

Phillips, Elizabeth M. (ORCID:0000000327752563)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Radiation-Related Risk of Cancers of the Upper Digestive Tract among Japanese Atomic Bomb Survivors

As a follow-up to the comprehensive work on solid cancer incidence in the Life Span Study (LSS) cohort of atomic bomb survivors between 1958 and 1998, we report here on updated radiation risk estimates for upper digestive tract cancers. In this study, we added 11 years of follow-up (1958–2009), used improved radiation dose estimates, considered effects of smoking and alcohol consumption and performed dose-response analyses by anatomical sub-site. In examining 52 years'worth of data, we ascertained the occurrence of 394 oral cavity/pharyngeal cancers, 486 esophageal cancers and 5,661 stomach cancers among 105,444 subjects. The radiation risk for oral cavity/pharyngeal cancer, other than salivary gland, was elevated but not significantly so. In contrast, salivary gland cancer exhibited a strong linear dose response with excess relative risk (ERR) of 2.54 per Gy [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.69 to 6.1]. Radiation risk decreased considerably with increasing age at time of exposure (–66% per decade, 95% CI: –88% to –32%). The dose response for esophageal cancer was statistically significant under a simple linear, linear-quadratic and quadratic model. Both linear-quadratic and quadratic models described the data better than a simple linear model and, of the two, the quadratic model showed a marginally better fit based on the Akaike Information Criteria. Sex difference in linear ERRs was not statistically significant; however, when the dose-response shape was allowed to vary by sex, statistically significant curvature was found among males, with no evidence of quadratic departure from linearity among females. The risk for stomach cancer increased significantly with dose and there was little evidence for quadratic departure from linearity among either males or females. The sex-averaged ERR at age 70 was 0.33 per Gy (95% CI: 0.20 to 0.47). The ERR decreased significantly (–1.93 power of attained age, 95% CI: –2.94 to –0.82) with increasing attained age, but not with age at exposure, and was higher in females than males (P = 0.02). Our results are largely consistent with the results of prior LSS analyses. Salivary gland, esophageal and stomach cancers continue to show significant increases in risk with radiation dose. Adjustment for lifestyle factors had almost no impact on the radiation effect estimates. Further follow-up of the LSS cohort is important to clarify the nature of radiation effects for upper digestive tract cancers, especially for oral cavity/pharyngeal and esophageal cancers, for which detailed investigation for dose-response shape could not be conducted due to the small number of cases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Analysis of Alternatives for Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools

The purpose of this document is to provide a basic overview and understanding of risk assessment methodologies and tools from the literature and to assess the suitability of these methodologies and tools for cyber risk assessment. Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) performed this review in support of risk modeling activities performed for the Stakeholder Engagement and Cyber Infrastructure Resilience (SECIR) division of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Office of Cybersecurity and Communications (CS&C). The set of methodologies and tools covered in this document is not intended to be exhaustive; instead, it focuses on those that are commonly used in the risk assessment community. The classification of methodologies and tools was performed by a group of analysts with experience in risk analysis and cybersecurity, and the resulting analysis of alternatives has been tailored to address the needs of a cyber risk assessment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Relationship between US Societal Fatality Risk per Vehicle Miles of Travel and Mass, for Individual Vehicle Models over Time (Model Year)

This report presents a new approach to analyze the relationship between vehicle mass and risk: tracking fatality risk by vehicle model year and mass, for individual vehicle models. This approach is appealing as it greatly minimizes the influence of driver characteristics and behavior, and crash circumstances, on fatality risk. However, only the most popular vehicle models, with the largest number of fatalities, can be analyzed in this manner. While the analysis of all vehicle models of a given type suggests that there is a relationship between increased mass and fatality risk, analysis of the ten most popular four-door car models separately suggests that this relationship is weak: in many cases when the mass of a specific vehicle model is increased societal fatality risk is unchanged or even increases. These results suggest that increasing the mass of an individual vehicle model does not necessarily lead to decreased societal fatality risk.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Desktop Instructions for LLNL W80-4 WDCR Schedule and Cost Risk Analysis

As part of Weapon Design Cost Report (WDCR), LLNL will be performing site Schedule Risk and Cost Risk Analysis. This analysis uses statistical techniques to predict a level of confidence in meeting the program’s completion date. This document includes the process and steps to conduct the Schedule Risk and Cost Risk Analysis to determine the likelihood that the program completion date are met, how much management reserve is needed to provide the acceptable certainty of completion by a specific date, risks most likely to delay the project, and the paths or activities that are most likely to delay the program. The analysis focuses on uncertainty and key risks and how they affect the schedule’s activity durations and established a management reserve.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗