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At least 829 records · Page 46

Accounting for Dose Uncertainty in Dose-Response Curve Estimation Using Hierarchical Bayes Models

As part of their development of the technology for low-boom supersonic flight, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is planning to conduct a set of supersonic aircraft annoyance surveys in select communities in the United States, to measure public perception of the reduced sonic boom. The relationship between a noise exposure level of a supersonic flight event and the probability of an individual being highly annoyed by the event is quantified by a dose-response curve, which is usually based on logistic regression modeling. Unavoidable amounts of estimation error are expected in the upcoming noise measurements, which can bias the results of the logistic regression if ignored. Hence, the development of an estimation approach that accounts for such error when estimating the dose-response curve is imperative. In this paper, an evaluation study is conducted to assess the impact of measurement error on dose-response curve estimation. For this, hierarchical Bayes models using different specifications are fit to data collected by NASA in 2018, as part of a risk-reduction study of supersonic flights affecting Galveston, Texas. It is observed that the estimated dose-response curve appears sensitive to uncertainty in dose measurements, being subject to attenuation bias.

community response↗

Dose-Response Data Collection Preparation for the NASA Quesst Mission With the X-59

Supersonic flight has the potential to cut travel times in half; however, community annoyance to sonic booms led to the ban on overland commercial supersonic flight by the Federal Aviation Administration in 1973. As part of its Quesst mission, NASA is developing the X-59 aircraft to demonstrate quiet supersonic flight and collect dose-response data to inform regulators in their efforts to establish noise standards to replace the current supersonic speed limit. This talk presents an overview of the NASA Quesst mission and poses some challenges in collecting and analyzing X-59 dose-response data. For the upcoming community flight campaign, the noise dose is the loudness of a supersonic overflight of the X-59 and the perceptual response from participants is captured via surveys after the flyover events. Establishing a relationship between noise dose and perceptual response will be a key product of these efforts.

X-59↗

Learnings From Rapid Response Efforts to Remotely Detect Landslides Triggered By the August 2021 Nippes Earthquake and Tropical Storm Grace in Haiti

On August 14, 2021, a Mw 7.2 earthquake struck the Tiburon Peninsula of western Haiti triggering thousands of landslides. Three days after the earthquake on August 17, 2021, Tropical Storm Grace crossed shallow waters offshore of southern Haiti triggering more landslides worsening the situation. In the aftermath of these events, several organizations with disaster response capabilities or programs activated to provide information on the location of landslides to first responders on the ground. Utilizing remote sensing to support rapid response, one organization manually mapped initiation point of landslides and three automatically detected landslides. The 2021 Haiti event also provided a unique opportunity to test different automated landslide detection methods that utilized both SAR and optical data in a rapid response scenario where rapid situational awareness was critical. As the methods used are highly replicable, the main goal of this study is to summarize the landslide rapid response products released by the organizations, detection methods, quantify accuracy and provide guidelines on how some of the shortcomings encountered in this effort might be addressed in the future. To support this validation, a manually mapped polygon-based landslide inventory covering the entire affected area was created and is also released through this effort.

2021 Nippes earthquake↗

Dose Error Correction Using Simulation Extrapolation for Community Noise Dose-Response Modeling

The objective of this work is to provide a framework to account and correct for dose error in dose-response modeling due to measurement uncertainty. Error in noise measurements, especially in the case of limited monitoring locations in a community, can lead to an attenuation or misestimation of parameters in dose-response models. This error can result in overpredicted annoyance at lower doses and underpredicted annoyance at higher doses. Simulated data in the present work are based on previous NASA community studies and incorporate a notional design for future studies with the X-59 aircraft. Several populations of different annoyance response sensitivities are included. Simulation extrapolation (SIMEX, Cook and Stefanski 1994) is used to correct for the dose error in a simple, fully pooled logistic regression. Results indicate the negative impact of attenuation is greatly diminished for all amounts of dose error considered, regardless of a population’s annoyance sensitivity. Therefore, SIMEX can help produce a more accurate dose-response relationship.

SIMEX↗

Modeling Measurement Error in Dose-Response Models of Community Annoyance to Low-Noise Supersonic Flight

The primary research goal of the forthcoming NASA Quesst mission community test campaign is to collect representative community response data in support of the development of supersonic overflight noise certification standards. Beginning in 2026, NASA will fly the novel X-59 demonstrator aircraft over select communities in United States in order to demonstrate the possibility of low-noise supersonic flight over land and to collect objective measurements and subjective data on the perceptual experience of this new noise source. It is believed that a regression of a binary perceptual response (‘highly annoyed’ or ‘not’) on estimated noise levels (doses, measured in decibels) will provide a useful dose-response relationship for regulators. However, as these estimated doses will be subject to measurement error, naïve estimators of regression coefficients are inconsistent and slopes may be subject to attenuation bias. In this presentation, I contrast functional modeling of measurement error via simulation extrapolation (SIMEX) with structural Bayesian measurement error models. These methods are applied to available data collected during two NASA risk reduction studies in California in 2011 and Texas in 2018. I’ll conclude noting that in the presence of nonnegligible measurement errors, probabilities of annoyance may be overpredicted for low noise levels and underpredicted for high noise levels, therefore, methods of correcting for measurement error will be necessary to improve the utility of the dose-response relationship for policy-making purposes.

simulation↗

Solving Unit Commitment Problems with Demand Responsive Loads: Preprint

This paper focuses on using variations of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm for solving unit commitment problems with high volumes of demand responsive loads on the power grid. We present a formulation of the unit commitment problem with demand responsive loads. We then show through reformulation and relaxations of the problem that variations of the Frank-Wolfe algorithm can be used to determine the time series decisions for the demand responsive loads. We show through computational experiments on the RTS-GMLC test system that the time series of demand responsive load decisions obtained through our approach are near optimal and provide details regarding how large scale parallel implementations of our approach can be highly computationally efficient.

demand response↗

Probing Signal-Based Inertia and Frequency Response Estimation for Power Systems with High Penetration of Inverter-Based Resources: Preprint

Power system inertia is the inherent capability of a power system to resist changes in its frequency during disturbances. Real-time inertia estimation technology has become more important due to the low-inertia issues caused by the increasing integration levels of inverter-based resources (IBRs) from renewable energy; however, existing inertia estimation methods hardly consider multiple frequency response controls that act within the same time frame as conventional inertial response, thus making measured inertia values vary under different testing conditions. To resolve this issue, this paper proposes a novel real-time estimation method to simultaneously estimate a power system's inertia constant and frequency response droop constant using a well-designed probing signal. First, we formulate the inertia and frequency response model of a power system with IBRs. Second, through the integration and manipulation of the developed model, we propose a multivariate linear regression- based estimation method that is resilient to measurement noise. Third, we design a probing signal that can be injected by IBRs to incite the required transients for estimation. Finally, we validate the proposed estimation method through comprehensive power- hardware-in-the-loop experiments using inverter hardware and a realistic island power system model. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can accurately estimate the inertia and droop value of the power system with grid-following IBRs and grid-forming IBRs with virtual synchronous machine control.

frequency response↗

Distribution Feeder-Scale Fast Frequency Response via Optimal Coordination of Net-load Resources Part I: Solution Design

This work is the first of a two-part series that develops and experimentally demonstrates a first-of-its-kind hierarchical control solution for optimally dispatching thousands of deferrable loads and distributed energy resources (DERs) across a distribution feeder to provide fast frequency response (FFR) within 500 ms to the bulk power system. This approach rapidly coordinates resources online after a frequency event occurs, allowing fast-changing, behind-the-meter (BTM) resources to be incorporated and aggregate FFR power set points to be achieved more quickly and accurately than existing approaches. We also present a solution for determining the optimal amount of headroom to operate solar inverters with to minimize opportunity cost while ensuring the FFR response viability of a building with the inverter and deferrable loads. In Part I, we develop practical algorithms for fast, cost-based optimal dispatch at multiple aggregation scales (single building, multiple buildings, and full distribution feeder), establish their optimality, and demonstrate via simulation that they are faster than state-of-the-art, coordinated frequency response approaches. In Part II, the entire platform is implemented and experimentally verified using a unique power hardware-in-the-loop demonstration, including more than 100 powered loads and DERs connected to a real-world distribution network model and over 10,000 net-load resources dispatched.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Stimuli‐Responsive Emission from Hybrid Metal Halides

Abstract Stimuli‐responsive photoluminescent (PL) materials have attracted considerable attention in recent years owing to their potential applications in anti‐counterfeiting, information encryption, and sensing. Further investigations of the transformation mechanism and potential applications of stimulus‐responsive PL materials are considerably important. In the current study, an organic–inorganic metal halide, C 9 H 15 N 3 SbCl 5 ([C 9 H 13 N 3 ] 2+ is a 1‐(2‐pyridyl) piperazine cation) is obtained, which exhibits a 0D structure withP‐1 space group. At room temperature, when excited by UV light, the C 9 H 15 N 3 SbCl 5 single crystals exhibit unimodal blue light emission at 405 nm, and grinding or hydrostatic pressure induces double‐peak emissions at 405 and 650 nm. Interestingly, double‐emission samples can be restored to single‐emission samples by short annealing or storage in air for 2 weeks, and this process is reversible. Luminescence response to mechanical stimuli can also be achieved in the presence of hydrochloric acid and water. Spectral analysis and the analysis of the microstructural changes revealed that the structural modifications of the inorganic group play a pivotal role in the response to the stimulus. Finally, a composite film device based on C 9 H 15 N 3 SbCl 5 is prepared to demonstrate the potential of these smart materials in anti‐counterfeiting and sensing applications.

Chemistry↗

Comparative Analysis of the Near‐ and Far‐Field Optical Response of Thin Plasmonic Nanostructures

Abstract Nanostructures made of metallic materials support collective oscillations of their conduction electrons, commonly known as surface plasmons. These modes, whose characteristics are determined by the material and morphology of the nanostructure, couple strongly to light and confine it into subwavelength volumes. Of particular interest are metallic nanostructures for which the size along one dimension approaches the nanometer or even the subnanometer scale, since such morphologies can lead to stronger light–matter interactions and higher degrees of confinement than regular three‐dimensional nanostructures. Here, the plasmonic response of metallic nanodisks of varying thicknesses and aspect ratios is investigated under far‐ and near‐field excitation conditions. It is found that, for far‐field excitation, the strength of the plasmonic response of the nanodisk increases with its thickness, as expected from the increase in the number of conduction electrons in the system. However, for near‐field excitation, the plasmonic response becomes stronger as the thickness of the nanodisk is reduced. This behavior is attributed to the higher efficiency with which a near‐field source couples to the plasmons supported by thinner nanodisks. The results of this work advance the understanding of the plasmonic response of thin metallic nanostructures, thus increasing their potential for the development of novel applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Grid‐responsive smart manufacturing: A perspective for an interconnected energy future in the industrial sector

Abstract With the growing amount of renewable energy sources, the grid has become responsible for accounting for intermittency and the flexibility needed to utilize dynamic sources. Expensive peaking plants and energy storage systems have been proposed as ways to mitigate those problems. There is a large group of energy consumers that can respond to grid conditions. Historically, these consumers have been residential and commercial users, but with modern innovations and practices, industrial consumers have the potential to become a major player in this space. Grid‐responsive smart manufacturing can be used to utilize modern tools in manufacturing innovation as enablers for grid response. These modern tools already exist but are not widely used for industrial grid‐side energy management. This article defines grid‐responsive smart manufacturing, identifies five major barriers to its widespread implementation, and portrays the path to getting industrial users to be key players in grid stability and flexibility.

Billings, Blake W.↗

A multidimensional stability framework enhances interpretation and comparison of carbon cycling response to disturbance

Abstract The concept of stability is central to the study and sustainability of vital ecosystem goods and services as disturbances increase globally. While ecosystem ecologists, including carbon (C) cycling scientists, have long‐considered multiple dimensions of disturbance response, our discipline lacks an agreed‐upon analytical framework for characterizing multidimensional stability. Here, we advocate for the broader adoption of a standardized and normalized multidimensional stability framework for analyzing disturbance response. This framework includes four dimensions of stability: the degree of initial change in C fluxes (i.e., resistance ); rate (i.e., resilience ) and variability (i.e., temporal stability ) of return to pre‐disturbance C fluxes; and the extent of return to pre‐disturbance C fluxes (i.e., recovery ). Using this framework, we highlight findings not readily seen from analysis of absolute fluxes, including trade‐offs between initial and long‐term C flux responses to disturbance; different overall stability profiles among fluxes; and, using a pilot dataset, similar relative stability of net primary production following fire and insect disturbances. We conclude that ecosystem ecologists’ embrace of a unifying multidimensional stability framework as a complement to approaches focused on absolute C fluxes could advance global change research by aiding in the novel interpretation, comprehensive synthesis, and improved forecasting of ecosystems’ response to an increasing array of disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterizing the seismic response of a molten salt nuclear reactor

Abstract One Generation IV nuclear reactor, which uses a fluoride salt as a coolant, graphite reflector blocks as a moderator, and circulating buoyant TRISO pebbles as fuel is at an advanced stage of development. To characterize the seismic behavior of components of this reactor, validate numerical models for analysis, and develop recommendations for design, a set of earthquake‐simulator experiments on a scaled model of the reactor vessel and its internals was executed on a six‐degree‐of‐freedom earthquake simulator. The model was seismically isolated at its base using two types of spherical sliding bearings. The scaled model involved representations of the prototype reactor vessel, core barrel, reflector blocks, coolant, and spherical fuel pebbles. The material and geometric properties of different test components were selected based on a dynamic similitude scaling analysis and an approximate length scale of 0.4. Four sets of three‐component earthquake motions were used as inputs for testing. Instrumentation on the test specimen recorded the dynamic responses of the outer vessel, core barrel, and reflector‐block assembly, the hydrodynamic responses (sloshing and hydrodynamic pressure) of the liquid coolant, pebble consolidation under earthquake shaking, and the behavior of the isolation systems. This paper describes the design of the experiments and presents key results from the tests. The dynamic responses of the outer vessel, core barrel, and the reflector blocks revealed that the components responded as a unit for the intense shaking used in the experiments. The sloshing response of the fluid in a thin annulus near the perimeter of the vessel was heavily damped. The change in the packing fraction of the pebble bed under repeated, intense 3D earthquake shaking was less than 3%. Seismically isolating the vessel substantially reduced demands on its internal components.

Engineering↗

Exploring young adult texts within the Historically Responsive Literacy Framework with preservice teachers

Abstract While culturally responsive texts have become more common in teacher education, too often, preservice teachers (PTs) are not asked to examine how to use these books pedagogically. To address this issue, in a young adult (YA) literature course, the Framework for Culturally and Historically Responsive Literacy (HRL) (Muhammad, 2000) Cultivating genius: An equity framework for culturally and historically responsive literac y, 2020; Scholastic) was used in conjunction with representative and inclusive YA trade books. Data analysis was conducted on PT's course work, including HRL unit plans, to determine whether PTs were able to implement Muhammad's (2020) framework using YA texts. The findings of this study show that PTs' understanding of the HRL tenets was at varying levels. While there were unit plans with learning goals that matched Muhammad's purpose and definition for each tenet and YA connections for every tenet, PTs showed a better understanding of the tenets of identity and intellect than skills and Criticality. Implications of these findings including exposing PTs to learning frameworks “written by people of color and designed for children of color” (Muhammad, 2020, p. 11) to create instruction that meets their future students' needs and does not just skim the surface of culturally responsive pedagogies.

Pule, Heather↗

Anthromes and forest carbon responses to global change

Human effects on ecosystems date back thousands of years, and anthropogenic biomes—anthromes—broadly incorporate the effects of human population density and land use on ecosystems. Forests are integral to the global carbon cycle, containing large biomass carbon stocks, yet their responses to land use and climate change are uncertain but critical to informing climate change mitigation strategies, ecosystem management, and Earth system modeling. Using an anthromes perspective and the site locations from the Global Forest Carbon (ForC) Database, we compare intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest lands in tropical and extratropical regions. We summarize recent past (1900-present) patterns of land use intensification, and we use a feedback analysis of Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to estimate the sensitivity of forest carbon stocks to CO 2 and temperature change for different anthromes among regions. Modeled global forest carbon stock responses are positive for CO 2 increase but neutral to negative for temperature increase. Across anthromes (intensively used, cultured, and wildland forest areas), modeled forest carbon stock responses of temperate and boreal forests are less variable than those of tropical forests. Tropical wildland forest areas appear especially sensitive to CO 2 and temperature change, with the negative temperature response highlighting the potential vulnerability of the globally significant carbon stock in tropical forests. The net effect of anthropogenic activities—including land-use intensification and environmental change and their interactions with natural forest dynamics—will shape future forest carbon stock changes. These interactive effects will likely be strongest in tropical wildlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation to a warming climate in global climate models

We compare the response of the Quasi–Biennial Oscillation (QBO) to a warming climate in eleven atmosphere general circulation models that performed time–slice simulations for present–day, doubled, and quadrupled CO 2 climates. No consistency was found among the models for the QBO period response, with the period decreasing by 8 months in some models and lengthening by up to 13 months in others in the doubled CO 2 simulations. In the quadrupled CO 2 simulations, a reduction in QBO period of 14 months was found in some models, whereas in several others the tropical oscillation no longer resembled the present–day QBO, although it could still be identified in the deseasonalized zonal mean zonal wind timeseries. In contrast, all the models projected a decrease in the QBO amplitude in a warmer climate with the largest relative decrease near 60 hPa. In simulations with doubled and quadrupled CO 2 , the multi–model mean QBO amplitudes decreased by 36 and 51%, respectively. Across the models the differences in the QBO period response were most strongly related to how the gravity wave momentum flux entering the stratosphere and tropical vertical residual velocity responded to the increases in CO 2 amounts. Likewise it was found that the robust decrease in QBO amplitudes was correlated across the models to changes in vertical residual velocity, parametrized gravity wave momentum fluxes, and to some degree the resolved upward wave flux. Here, we argue that uncertainty in the representation of the parameterized gravity waves is the most likely cause of the spread among the eleven models in the QBO's response to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Asymmetric response of cross-equatorial ocean heat transport to latitudinal thermal forcing in CESM

The partitioning of cross-equatorial heat transport between the atmosphere and the ocean is investigated through a series of fully coupled experiments, where external radiative forcing is applied over different latitudinal bands. The modeling results reveal a first-order collaborative relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere. In response to low-latitude perturbations, the cross-equatorial heat transport is realized mainly through the atmosphere, as the total ocean heat transport (OHT) is largely offsets by its horizontal gyre component. However, as perturbations shift to higher latitudes in both hemispheres, the OHT responses become more important. Here, we also find a significant interhemispheric asymmetry in the cross-equatorial heat transport, with the OHT contribution being more important in the Southern Hemisphere. This asymmetry is mainly attributed to different responses in the changes of the ocean circulation. When the radiative forcing is placed over the Southern Ocean, a buoyancy-driven clockwise cell is generated that extends from the Southern Ocean into the tropics in both the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic basins, effectively transporting energy to the northern hemisphere. Conversely, when the radiative forcing is placed over the northern high latitudes, the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is responsible for the anomalous southward heat transport.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest Structural Complexity and Biomass Predict First-Year Carbon Cycling Responses to Disturbance

The pre-disturbance vegetation characteristics that predict carbon (C) cycling responses to disturbance are not well known. To address this gap, we initiated the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment, a manipulative study in which more than 3600 trees were stem girdled to achieve replicated factorial combinations of four levels (control, 45, 65, and 85% gross defoliation) of disturbance severity and two disturbance types (targeting upper or lower canopy strata). Applying a standardized stability framework in which initial C cycling resistance to disturbance was calculated as the first-year natural log response ratio of disturbance and control treatments, we investigated to what extent pre-disturbance levels of species diversity, aboveground woody biomass, leaf area index, and canopy rugosity—a measure of structural complexity—predict the initial responses of subcanopy light-saturated leaf CO 2 assimilation (A sat ), aboveground wood NPP (ANPP w ), and soil respiration (R s ) to phloem-disrupting disturbance. In the year following stem girdling, we found that above-ground C cycling processes, A sat and ANPP w , were highly resistant to increases in disturbance severity, while Rs resistance declined as severity increased. Disturbance type had no effect on first-year resistance. Pre-disturbance aboveground woody biomass, and canopy rugosity were positive predictors of ANPP w resistance and, conversely, negatively related to R s resistance. Subcanopy A sat resistance was not related to pre-disturbance vegetation characteristics. Stability of C uptake processes along with R s declines suggest the net C sink was sustained in the initial months following disturbance. Therefore, we conclude that biomass and complexity are significant, but not universal, predictors of initial C cycling resistance to disturbance. Moreover, our findings highlight the utility of standardized stability measures when comparing functional responses to disturbance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗