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At least 829 records · Page 46

Using probabilistic solar power forecasts to inform flexible ramp product procurement for the California ISO

How can independent system operators (ISOs) take advantage of probabilistic solar forecasts to lower generation costs and improve reliability of power systems? We discuss one three-step approach for doing so, focusing on how such forecasts might help the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) prepare unexpected net load ramps, where net load equals gross demand minus wind and solar production. First, we enhance an existing solar forecasting system to provide well-calibrated hours-ahead probabilistic forecasts. We then relate the degree of uncertainty reflected in the forecasted prediction intervals (independent variables) to error distributions for net load ramp forecasts for the CAISO real-time market (dependent variable) using machine learning and quantile regression. Projected ramp forecast errors conditioned on solar uncertainty are translated into flexible ramp requirements that therefore reflect real-time meteorological and solar conditions, improving on typical ISO procedures. Detailed descriptions are provided on the quantile regression and kth-nearest neighbor categorization methods for accomplishing that translation. Finally, a multiple time-scale look-ahead market simulation model is applied to a 118-bus IEEE Reliability Test System, modified to represent the CAISO generation mix and demand distributions. The model runs quantify how solar-conditioned ramp requirements can, first, decrease operating costs by reducing requirements compared to often conservative unconditional methods and, second, decrease generation scarcity events and consequently improve reliability by increasing flexibility requirements at times when unconditional forecast-based requirements understate actual ramp uncertainty. Solar-conditioned ramp requirements are found to reduce generation operating costs by about 2% for the test system (which would be equivalent to over $\$100$ million per year for a CAISO-size system).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The MOOSE electromagnetics module

The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) electromagnetics module has been developed to increase MOOSE physics module capabilities, enabling standalone and coupled computational electromagnetics within the MOOSE multiphysics ecosystem. The module is actively being utilized in the areas of plasma physics and advanced manufacturing, and it currently provides initial demonstrated capability in multi-dimensional, complex-valued electromagnetic wave propagation, electrostatic contact, reflection and transmission, and electromagnetic eigenvalue problems. Two-dimensional wave propagation and one-dimensional wave reflection and transmission are showcased as examples in this work. The modularity, parallelism, and plug-in infrastructure for custom future development is inherited from MOOSE itself, and the module can be used with both MOOSE-based and external codes, giving great flexibility.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Partitioning sources of CO 2 emission after soil wetting using high-resolution observations and minimal models

Wetting dry soil triggers a pulse of microbial respiration. Respiration pulses after wetting can be complex, evolving through several stages before subsiding—possibly reflecting contributions from multiple carbon (C) sources. In this work we hypothesized that respiration after wetting combines C from cellular sources (notably trehalose, a cellular osmo-protectant) and soluble extracellular C made available by the physical effects of wetting, with cellular sources contributing early during the pulse and extracellular C dominating later. We tested this hypothesis by making measurements of soil respiration, microbial biomass, trehalose, and water extractable organic C after wetting dry soil in the laboratory. We then devised several alternative minimal models to evaluate the potential contributions of trehalose and extracellular C to the respiration pulse. We found that the chloroform-labile fraction of the microbial biomass was comprised of 50% trehalose in dry soil. Both trehalose and water extractable organic C pools declined rapidly after wetting; trehalose disappeared within 3 h of water addition. Chloroform-labile glucose increased 3 h after water addition and then declined, suggesting rapid hydrolysis of trehalose and consumption of the resulting glucose. Respiration dynamics after wetting could be best explained by models that included two C sources, combining rapid metabolism of trehalose with slower consumption of extracellular soluble C. These results suggest that pulses of respiration after wetting reflect both osmolyte consumption within the microbial biomass and enhanced extracellular C availability; hence, models of microbial drought response must account for both processes to fully resolve soil C dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Divergent responses of soil microorganisms to throughfall exclusion across tropical forest soils driven by soil fertility and climate history

Model projections predict tropical forests will experience longer periods of drought and more intense precipitation cycles under a changing climate. Such transitions have implications for structure-function relationships within microbial communities. We examine how throughfall exclusion might reshape prokaryotic and fungal communities across four lowland forests in Panama with a wide variation in mean annual precipitation and soil fertility. Four sites were established across a 1000 mm span in Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP: 2335–3421 mm). We expected microbial communities at sites with lower MAP to be less sensitive to throughfall exclusion than sites with higher MAP and fungal communities to be more resistant to disturbance than prokaryotes. At each location, partial throughfall exclusion structures were established over 10 × 10 m plots to reduce direct precipitation input. After short-term (~3–9 months) throughfall exclusion, prokaryotic communities showed no change in composition. However, prolonged (12–18 months) throughfall exclusion resulted in divergent prokaryotic community responses, reflecting MAP and soil fertility. We observed the emergence of a “drought microbiome” within infertile sites, whereby the community structure of the experimental throughfall exclusion plots at the lower MAP sites diverged from their respective control sites and converged towards overlapping assemblages. Furthermore, under throughfall exclusion, taxa increasing in relative abundance at the wettest site reflected that endemic to control plots at the lowest MAP site, suggesting a shift toward communities with lifehistory traits selected for under a lower MAP. By contrast, fungal community composition across sites was resilient to throughfall exclusion; however, biomass diverged in response to throughfall exclusion, increasing at two sites while decreasing in the other two. Broadly, our results suggest that microbial communities’ sensitivity to frequent drying and rewetting periods in tropical forest soils will depend on climate history and soil fertility, with infertile sites likely to respond readily to changes in precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Annual simulation of photovoltaic retrofits within existing parabolic trough concentrating solar powerplants

Solar power for electricity production comes from either photovoltaics or concentrating solar power plants. The former has seen rapid growth and expansion due to the rapid fall in global prices, while the latter has seen moderate growth due to ability to cheaply store thermal energy for later use. Hybridization, or combining photovoltaics with concentrating solar power represents a potential way for lowering cost while enabling long term storage. Over 5 GW of capacity exist worldwide using parabolic trough style technology for concentrating solar power which presents a unique option for optimization in the form of a photovoltaic retrofit. While it is possible to analyze the performance with detailed physics models, it is necessary to create a model that can handle simulating the plant level performance to fully understand the potential performance. Here, the first utility scale plant level model of a hybrid photovoltaic-concentrating solar power plant is developed. The model is applied to existing concentrating solar power plants around the world utilizing RP-3 mirrors without thermal energy storage to understand the impact on electricity production. Model results indicate that the photovoltaic retrofit can increase yearly electricity production by up to 30% for plants with solar multiples exceeding 1.5, and that increasing the fraction of solar energy reflected further increases the yield. The increased electrical production declines as the plant solar multiple is decreased. The minimum LCOE observed was $0.07/kWh for plants with larger solar multiple and fraction of solar energy reflected to the PV is 50% of the total aperture.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Improved performance of a near-field thermophotovoltaic device by a back gapped reflector

Various spectral control techniques can be applied to improve the performance of a thermophotovoltaic (TPV) device. For example, a back surface reflector (BSR) is a common structure to improve the performance of TPV devices. A conventional metal BSR structure enhances the photogeneration rate by increasing the absorption probability of photons via back surface reflections, affording a second chance for absorption. However, the effects of surface passivation and external luminescence introduced by BSR structures have been previously ignored, which potentially decreases the performance of TPV devices. Recently, a back gapped reflector (BGR) structure was proposed to greatly improve the performance of far-field TPV devices by reducing imperfect reflections at the semiconductor-metal interface. In the present work, the performance improvement on a thin-film, near-field InAs TPV device with a BGR is investigated, comparing its performance to that with a conventional metal BSR. Surface passivation conditions are also investigated to further improve the performance of TPV devices with back reflectors. Further, the output power and efficiency are calculated using an iterative model combining fluctuational electrodynamics and the full drift diffusion model. For the well-passivated condition, when the BSR is replaced by the BGR, the calculated conversion efficiency of the near-field TPV was improved from 16.4% to 21% and the output power was increased by 10%. Finally, the absorption of the back reflectors and external luminescence loss are analyzed to explain the performance improvement.

external luminescence↗

Size quantization of an exciton: A toy model of the “dead layer”

In this paper, size-quantization levels of an exciton in large nanocrystals is studied theoretically. For the nanocrystal size, L , much bigger than the Bohr radius, a B , the level positions do not depend on a B . The correction to the levels in a small parameter a B / L depends on the reflection phase of the exciton from the boundary. Calculation of this phase constitutes a three-body problem: electron, hole, and the boundary. This calculation can be performed analytically in the limit when the hole is much heavier than the electron. Physically, a slow motion of the hole towards the boundary takes place in the effective potential created by the fast motion of the electron orbiting the hole and touching the boundary. As a result, the hole is reflected before reaching the boundary. The distance of the closest approach of the hole to the boundary (the dead layer) exceeds a B parametrically .

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Identifying geological structures through microseismic cluster and burst analyses complementing active seismic interpretation

At the Decatur carbon capture and storage site (IL, USA) CO 2 has been injected from 2011–2014 and from 2017 to present near the base of the Lower Mt. Simon Sandstone saline reservoir, resulting in microseismicity. Microseismicity is mainly located in the basement and distributed in distinct spatial clusters. The lack of significant impedance contrasts within the basement makes the interpretation of active-source seismic reflection data challenging, however, recent reprocessing allowed to resolve faults above and at the top of the basement. These faults generally do not coincide with the location of microseismic events and their continuation to the general depth of the seismic events cannot be assumed. This paper shows how the interpretation of the microseismicity can complement structural interpretations of active-source seismic reflection data. In particular, we analyze clusters and bursts (abrupt increases) of microseismicity, identify unresolved, smaller-scale weaknesses and extract statistical parameters. These parameters allow comparisons with the interpreted faults, and with fracture sets intercepted by boreholes. During injection at the Decatur site, the injection pressure was kept far below fracture pressure, nevertheless, seismic events were induced and spread far beyond the expected extent of the CO 2 plume. We argue that local stress transfers related to the CO 2 injection reactivated pre-existing fractures within the critically stressed basement. Finally, we conducted a slip tendency analysis for faults interpreted from active seismic, selected cluster, bursts and nodal planes from focal mechanisms to determine if the interpreted structures are optimally oriented with respect to the stress regime. Our results suggest that the orientation of fractures close to the injection well, generally shows slight deviations from the optimal orientation for slip. This might indicate either slight local deviations of the maximum horizontal stress azimuth from the average direction used in the analysis, or the lack of optimally oriented fractures at this location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Optical, structural and aging properties of Al/Sc-based multilayers for the extreme ultraviolet

This manuscript presents the structural characterization of Al/Sc-based periodic multilayer coatings for the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral range. Based on transmission electron microscopy and electron diffraction as well as grazing-incidence and large-angle x-ray diffraction, a model for the layer structure and the interfacial effects of Al/Sc coatings is built. The onset of crystallization in nanoscale Al and Sc layers as a function of thickness is also revealed in these characterizations. The Al/Sc layer model is validated and further refined by fitting in-band and out-of-band EUV reflectance measurements across 5 orders of magnitude in an extended wavelength range from 17 to 80 nm. Here, the same type of EUV reflectance measurements is used to test the Al/Sc aging properties and to demonstrate the spectral response of optimized two- and tri-material multilayers including Al/Sc, Al/Sc/SiC and Mo/Al/Sc.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantitative agreement between dynamical rocking curves in ultrafast electron diffraction for x-ray lasers

Electron diffraction through a thin patterned silicon membrane can be used to create complex spatial modulations in electron distributions. By precisely varying parameters such as crystallographic orientation and wafer thickness, the intensity of reflections in the diffraction plane can be controlled and by placing an aperture to block all but one spot, we can form an image with different parts of the patterned membrane, as is done for bright-field imaging in microscopy. The patterned electron beams can then be used to control phase and amplitude of subsequent x-ray emission, enabling novel coherent x-ray methods. Furthermore, the electrons themselves can also be used for femtosecond time resolved diffraction and microscopy. As a first step toward patterned beams, we demonstrate experimentally and through simulation the ability to accurately predict and control diffraction spot intensities. We simulate MeV transmission electron diffraction patterns using the multislice method for various crystallographic orientations of a single crystal Si(001) membrane near beam normal. The resulting intensity maps of the Bragg reflections are compared to experimental results obtained at the Accelerator Structure Test Area Ultrafast Electron Diffraction (ASTA UED) facility at SLAC. Furthermore, the fraction of inelastic and elastic scattering of the initial charge is estimated along with the absorption of the membrane to determine the contrast that would be seen in a patterned version of the Si(001) membrane.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Electron pulse train accelerated by a linearly polarized Laguerre–Gaussian laser beam

A linearly polarized Laguerre–Gaussian (LP-LG) laser beam with a twist index $l$ = –1 has field structure that fundamentally differs from the field structure of a conventional linearly polarized Gaussian beam. Close to the axis of the LP-LG beam, the longitudinal electric and magnetic fields dominate over the transverse components. This structure offers an attractive opportunity to accelerate electrons in vacuum. It is shown, using three-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations, that this scenario can be realized by reflecting an LP-LG laser off a plasma with a sharp density gradient. The simulations indicate that a 600 TW LP-LG laser beam effectively injects electrons into the beam during the reflection. The electrons that are injected close to the laser axis experience a prolonged longitudinal acceleration by the longitudinal laser electric field. The electrons form distinct monoenergetic bunches with a small divergence angle. The energy in the most energetic bunch is 0.29 GeV. The bunch charge is 6 pC and its duration is approximately 270 as. The divergence angle is just 0.57° (10 mrad). By using a linearly polarized rather than a circularly polarized Laguerre–Gaussian beam, our scheme makes it easier to demonstrate the electron acceleration experimentally at a high-power laser facility.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Activity-induced migration of viscous droplets on a solid substrate

Active matter exploits motion to induce changes in shape and conformation via external input. Here, in this paper, we establish theoretically that viscous liquid droplets containing magnetic nanoparticles with frozen-in magnetic moments, sitting on a solid substrate and surrounded by an ambient gas phase, can deform and migrate under the influence of a magnetic torque. The effect arises because the collective rotation of the magnetic nanoparticles at the liquid–gas interface tilts the droplet away from a symmetric configuration, breaks the reflection symmetry with respect to the centre axis, and leads to a left–right asymmetry of the contact angles. A sufficiently strong magnetic torque leads the contact angles to overcome hysteresis effects leading the droplet to migrate. We develop a general framework to explain how symmetry-breaking affects droplet migration. Thus previous results of droplet spreading and migration can be recovered as special cases. Such droplets can be employed as agents in active surfaces and can move against gravity, chemical and thermal gradients, providing a mechanism that could be utilized by both industry and medicine.

Aggarwal, A.↗

Radio-echo sounding of Crary Ice Rise reveals abundant marine ice in former ice shelf rifts and basal crevasses

Crary Ice Rise formed after the Ross Ice Shelf re-grounded ~1 kyr BP. We present new ice-penetrating radar data from two systems operating at center frequencies of 7 and 750 MHz that confirm the ice rise is composed of a former ice shelf buried by subsequent accumulation. Stacks of englacial diffraction hyperbolas are present almost everywhere across the central ice rise and extend up to ~350 m above the bed. In many cases, bed reflections beneath the diffraction hyperbolas are obscured for distances up to 1 km. Waveform modeling indicates that the diffraction hyperbolas are likely caused by marine ice deposits in former basal crevasses and rifts. The in-filling of rifts and basal crevasses may have strengthened the connection between the ice rise and the surrounding ice shelf, which could have influenced local and regional ice dynamics. Three internal reflection horizons mark the upper limit of disturbed ice and diffraction hyperbolas in different sections of the ice rise, indicating at least three stages of flow stabilization across the ice rise. A surface lineation visible in MODIS imagery corresponds spatially to deepening and strong deformation of these layers, consistent with the characteristics of former grounding lines observed elsewhere in Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scattering of radiofrequency waves by randomly modulated density interfaces in the edge of fusion plasmas

In the scrape-off layer and the edge region of a tokamak, the plasma is strongly turbulent and scatters the radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic waves that propagate through this region. It is important to know the spectral properties of these scattered RF waves, whether used for diagnostics or for heating and current drive. The spectral changes influence the interpretation of the obtained diagnostic data, and the current and heating profiles. A full-wave, three-dimensional (3-D) electromagnetic code ScaRF has been developed for studying the RF wave propagation through turbulent plasma. ScaRF is a finite-difference frequency-domain (FDFD) method used for solving Maxwell's equations. The magnetized plasma is defined through the cold plasma by the anisotropic permittivity tensor. As a result, ScaRF can be used to study the scattering of any cold plasma RF wave. It can also be used for the study of the scattering of electron cyclotron waves in ITER-type and medium-sized tokamaks such as TCV, ASDEX-U and DIII-D. For the case of medium-sized tokamaks, there is experimental evidence that drift waves and rippling modes are present in the edge region. Hence, we have studied the scattering of RF waves by periodic density interfaces (plasma gratings) in the form of a superposition of spatial modes with varying periodicity and random amplitudes. The power reflection coefficient (a random variable) is calculated for different realizations of the density interface. In this work, the uncertainty of the power reflection coefficient is rigorously quantified by use of the Polynomial Chaos Expansion method in conjunction with the Smolyak sparse-grid integration, which is known as the PCE-SG method. The PCE-SG method is proven to be accurate and more efficient compared with alternative methods such as the Monte Carlo (MC) approach.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Investigation of Off-Stoichiometry in Ternary Nitrides by EDS and HRTEM

We demonstrate an inverted metamorphic multijunction (IMM) photovoltaic cell comprising lattice-mismatched 1.2 eV AlGaInAs and 1.0 eV GaInAs junctions optimized for high-temperature thermophotovoltaic (TPV) applications. This device differs from traditional IMM solar cells because the mismatched junctions are grown at a single lattice constant. This architecture enables removal of the compositionally graded buffer which otherwise filters light from the junctions below and absorbs sub-bandgap light via free-carrier absorption. Sub-bandgap absorption dramatically reduces the efficiency of TPV systems using high reflectivity cells to enable bandedge spectrum filtering. Three components required development to enable this device: 1) a lattice-mismatched 1.2 eV AlGaInAs junction, 2) a metamorphic contact layer grown after the graded buffer, and 3) a transparent tunnel junction that sits in front of the 1.0 eV GaInAs junction. Growth conditions that minimize oxygen defect incorporation maximize AlGaInAs cell quality, enabling a 0.41 V bandgap open circuit voltage offset at 22 mA/cm2 under AM1.5D. A mismatched GaInAs:Se layer is developed as a low resistance contact. Lastly we develop a GaAsSb:C/GaInP:Se tunnel junction suitable for high-power densities with more transparency than the GaAsSb:C/GaInP:Se structure used in past IMM cells. We characterize the tandem device under a high-intensity spectrum that approximates the emission from a 2150 °C blackbody radiator and deduce a projected ideal TPV efficiency of 39.9% at ~30% of the blackbody irradiance, and 36% ideal TPV efficiency under the full 118 W/cm2 irradiance. Improvements to the back-surface reflectivity and series resistance are expected to increase the ideal TPV efficiency well above 40%.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Monitoring SEIRAS on a Graphitic Electrode for Surface-Sensitive Electrochemistry: Real-Time Electrografting

The ubiquity of graphitic materials in electrochemistry makes it highly desirable to probe their interfacial behavior under electrochemical control. Probing the dynamics of molecules at the electrode/electrolyte interface is possible through spectroelectrochemical approaches involving surface-enhanced infrared absorption spectroscopy (SEIRAS). Usually, this technique can only be done on plasmonic metals such as gold or carbon nanoribbons, but a more convenient substrate for carbon electrochemical studies is needed. Here, we expanded the scope of SEIRAS by introducing a robust hybrid graphene-on-gold substrate, where we monitored electrografting processes occurring at the graphene/electrolyte interface. These electrodes consist of graphene deposited onto a roughened gold-sputtered internal reflection element (IRE) for attenuated total reflectance (ATR) SEIRAS. The capabilities of the graphene-gold IRE were demonstrated by successfully monitoring the electrografting of 4-amino-2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-1-piperidine N -oxyl (4-amino-TEMPO) and 4-nitrobenzene diazonium (4-NBD) in real time. These grafts were characterized using cyclic voltammetry and ATR-SEIRAS, clearly showing the 1520 and 1350 cm –1 NO 2 stretches for 4-NBD and the 1240 cm –1 C–C, C–C–H, and N–Ȯ stretch for 4-amino-TEMPO. Successful grafts on graphene did not show the SEIRAS effect, while grafting on gold was not stable for TEMPO and had poorer resolution than on graphene-gold for 4-NBD, highlighting the uniqueness of our approach. The graphene-gold IRE is proficient at resolving the spectral responses of redox transformations, unambiguously demonstrating the real-time detection of surface processes on a graphitic electrode. This work provides ample future directions for real-time spectroelectrochemical investigations of carbon electrodes used for sensing, energy storage, electrocatalysis, and environmental applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗