Results for “range prediction” — Page 46

NASA NTRS1993

Linear and nonlinear PSE for compressible boundary layers

Compressible stability of growing boundary layers is studied by numerically solving the partial differential equations under a parabolizing approximation. The resulting parabolized stability equations (PSE) account for nonparallel as well as nonlinear effects. Evolution of disturbances in compressible flat-plate boundary layers are studied for freestream Mach numbers ranging from 0 to 4.5. Results indicate that the effect of boundary-layer growth is important for linear disturbances. Nonlinear calculations are performed for various Mach numbers. Two-dimensional nonlinear results using the PSE approach agree well with those from direct numerical simulations using the full Navier-Stokes equations while the required computational time is less by an order of magnitude. Spatial simulation using PSE were carried out for both the fundamental and subharmonic type breakdown for a Mach 1.6 boundary layer. The promising results obtained show that the PSE method is a powerful tool for studying boundary-layer instabilities and for predicting transition over a wide range of Mach numbers.

Chang, Chau-Lyan↗

DOE OSTI2021

Toward a First-Principles Framework for Predicting Collective Properties of Electrolytes

Conspectus Given the universal importance of electrolyte solutions, it is natural to expect that we have a nearly complete understanding of the fundamental properties of these solutions (e.g., the chemical potential) and that we can therefore explain, predict, and control the phenomena occurring in them. In fact, reality falls short of these expectations. But, recent advances in the simulation and modeling of electrolyte solutions indicate that it should soon be possible to make progress toward these goals. In this Account, we will discuss the use of first-principles interaction potentials based in quantum mechanics (QM) to enhance our understanding of electrolyte solutions. Specifically, we will focus on the use of quantum density functional theory (DFT) combined with molecular dynamics simulation (DFT-MD) as the foundation for our approach. The overarching concept is to understand and accurately reproduce the balance between local or short-ranged (SR) structural details and long-range (LR) correlations, allowing the prediction of the thermodynamics of both single ions in solution as well as the collective interactions characterized by activity/osmotic coefficients. In doing so, relevant collective motions and driving forces characterized by chemical potentials can be determined. Here, in this Account, we will make the case that understanding electrolyte solutions requires a faithful QM representation of the SR nature of the ion–ion, ion–water, and water–water interactions. However, the number of molecules that is required for collective behavior makes the direct application of high-level QM methods that contain the best SR physics untenable, making methods that balance accuracy and efficiency a practical goal. Alternatives such as continuum solvent models (CSMs) and empirically based classical molecular dynamics have been extensively employed to resolve this problem but without yet overcoming the fundamental issue of SR accuracy. We will demonstrate that accurately describing the SR interaction is imperative for predicting both intrinsic properties, namely, at infinite dilution, and collective properties of electrolyte solutions. DFT has played an important role in our understanding of condensed phase systems, e.g., bulk liquid water, the air–water interface, ions in bulk, and at the air–water interface. This approach holds huge promise to provide benchmark calculations of electrolyte solution properties that will allow for the development and improvement of more efficient methods, as well as an enhanced understanding of fundamental phenomena. However, the standard protocol using the generalized gradient approximation with van der Waals (vdW) correction requires improvement in order to achieve a high level of quantitative accuracy. Simply simulating with higher level DFT functionals may not be the best route considering the significant computational cost. Alternative methods of incorporating information from higher levels of QM should be explored; e.g., using force matching techniques on small clusters, where high level benchmark calculations are possible, to develop ideal correction terms to the DFT functional is a promising possibility. We argue that DFT with statistical mechanics is becoming an increasingly useful framework enabling the prediction of collective electrolyte properties.

Duignan, Timothy T.↗

DOE OSTI2023

A high-resolution large-eddy simulation framework for wildland fire predictions using TensorFlow

Background: Wildfires are becoming more severe, so we need improved tools to predict them over a wide range of conditions and scales. One approach towards this goal entails the use of coupled fire/atmosphere modelling tools. Although significant progress has been made in advancing their physical fidelity, existing tools have not taken full advantage of emerging programming paradigms and computing architectures to enable high-resolution wildfire simulations. Aims: The aim of this study was to present a new framework that enables landscape-scale wildfire simulations with physical representation of combustion at an affordable cost. Methods: We developed a coupled fire/atmosphere simulation framework using TensorFlow, which enables efficient and scalable computations on Tensor Processing Units. Key Results: Simulation results for a prescribed fire were compared with experimental data. Predicted fire behavior and statistical analysis for fire spread rate, scar area, and intermittency showed overall reasonable agreement. Scalability analysis was performed, showing close to linear scaling. Conclusions: While mesh refinement was shown to have less impact on global quantities, such as fire scar area and spread rate, it benefits predictions of intermittent fire behavior, buoyancy-driven dynamics, and small-scale turbulent motion. Implications: This new simulation framework is efficient in capturing both global quantities and unsteady dynamics of wildfires at high spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Resolving the structure of phage–bacteria interactions in the context of natural diversity

Microbial communities are shaped by viral predators. Yet, resolving which viruses (phages) and bacteria are interacting is a major challenge in the context of natural levels of microbial diversity. Thus, fundamental features of how phage-bacteria interactions are structured and evolve in the wild remain poorly resolved. Here we use large-scale isolation of environmental marine Vibrio bacteria and their phages to obtain estimates of strain-level phage predator loads, and use all-by-all host range assays to discover how phage and host genomic diversity shape interactions. We show that lytic interactions in environmental interaction networks (as observed in agar overlay) are sparse—with phage predator loads being low for most bacterial strains, and phages being host-strain-specific. Paradoxically, we also find that although overlap in killing is generally rare between tailed phages, recombination is common. Together, these results suggest that recombination during cryptic co-infections is an important mode of phage evolution in microbial communities. In the development of phages for bioengineering and therapeutics it is important to consider that nucleic acids of introduced phages may spread into local phage populations through recombination, and that the likelihood of transfer is not predictable based on lytic host range.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing nanoscale charged colloid crystallization near a metastable liquid binodal

Achieving predictive control over crystallization using non-classical nucleation while avoiding kinetic traps would be a step towards designing materials with new functionalities. We address these challenges by inducing the bottom-up assembly of nanocrystals into ordered arrays, or superlattices. Using electrostatics—rather than density—to tune the interactions between particles, we watch self-assembly proceed through a metastable liquid phase. Here, we systematically investigate the phase behaviour as a function of quench conditions in situ and in real time using small-angle X-ray scattering. By fitting to colloid, liquid and superlattice models, we extract the time evolution of each phase and the system phase diagram, which we find to be consistent with short-range attractive interactions. Using the predictive power of the phase diagram, we establish control of the self-assembly rate over three orders of magnitude, and we identify one- and two-step self-assembly regimes, with only the latter implicating the metastable liquid as an intermediate. The presence of the metastable liquid increases the superlattice formation rate relative to the equivalent one-step pathway, and the superlattice order increases with the rate, revealing a generalizable kinetic strategy for promoting and enhancing ordered assembly.

Tanner, Christian P. N. [University of California,↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of the turbulent boundary layer pressure wavenumber-frequency spectrum using a fixed probe pair

The turbulent boundary layer (TBL) pressure fluctuations represent a dominant source of aircraft interior noise during cruise. The wavenumber-frequency characteristics of the TBL pressure field become important when determining its coupling with the aircraft structure and the resulting sound radiation into the interior of the aircraft. A technique is presented to estimate the TBL pressure wavenumber-frequency spectrum using a fixed probe pair consisting of two microphones. Flight test data from the McDonnel Douglas Ultra High Bypass Demonstrator aircraft were used to estimate the TBL pressure wavenumber-frequency spectra. These data were compared with selected wall pressure prediction models based on the existing wind tunnel data. The estimated in-flight spectral levels for the Demonstrator aircraft were in good agreement with the TBL wall pressure prediction models in the medium wavenumber range. The estimated TBL wavenumber spectral levels were found to be on the higher side in the low wavenumber region when compared with the predicted levels.

Mathur, Gopal P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Role of Electron Correlation beyond the Active Space in Achieving Quantitative Predictions of Spin-Phonon Relaxation

Single-molecule magnets (SMMs) are promising candidates for molecular-scale data storage and processing due to their strong magnetic anisotropy and long spin relaxation times. However, as temperature rises, interactions between electronic states and lattice vibrations accelerate spin relaxation, significantly limiting their practical applications. Recently, ab initio simulations have made it possible to advance our understanding of phonon-induced magnetic relaxation, but significant deviations from experiments have often been observed. The description of molecules’ electronic structure has been mostly based on complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) calculations, and the impact of electron correlation beyond the active space remains largely unexplored. In this study, we provide the first systematic investigation of spin-phonon relaxation in SMMs with post-CASSCF multiconfigurational methods, specifically CAS followed by second-order perturbation theory and multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory. Taking Co(II)- and Dy(III)-based SMMs as case studies, we analyze how electron correlation influences spin-phonon relaxation rates across a range of temperatures, comparing theoretical predictions with experimental observations. Our findings demonstrate that post-CASSCF treatments make it possible to achieve quantitative predictions for Co(II)-based SMMs. For Dy(III)-based systems, however, accurate predictions require consideration of additional effects, underscoring the urgent necessity of further advancing the study of the effects of electronic correlation in these complex systems.

Energy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Multi-mode quasi-static excitation for systems with nonlinear joints

Finite element models can be used to model and predict the hysteresis and energy dissipation exhibited by nonlinear joints in structures. As a result of the nonlinearity, the frequency and damping of a mode is dependent on excitation amplitude, and when the modes remain uncoupled, quasi-static modal analysis has been shown to efficiently predict this behavior. However, in some cases the modes have been observed to couple such that the frequency and damping of one mode is dependent on the amplitude of other modes. To model the interactions between modes, one must integrate the dynamic equations in time, which is several orders of magnitude more expensive than quasi-static analysis. This work explores an alternative where quasi-static forces are applied in the shapes of two or more modes of vibration simultaneously, and the resulting load–displacement curves are used to deduce the effect of other modes on the effective frequency and damping of the mode in question. This methodology is demonstrated on a simple 2D cantilever beam structure with a single bolted joint which exhibits micro-slip nonlinearity over a range of vibration amplitudes. The predicted frequency and damping are compared with those extracted from a few expensive dynamic simulations of the structure, showing that the quasi-static approach produces reasonable albeit highly conservative bounds on the observed dynamics. This framework is also demonstrated on a 3D structure where dynamic simulations are infeasible.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Microstructural, Oxidation, and Mechanical Behavior of NbTi-Based Refractory Alloys with 5 to 10 Pct Co, Cr, and Ni Additions

NbTi-based refractory alloys with additions of Co, Cr, and Ni represent an interesting medium-entropy alloy system with potential for protective oxide film formation, high strength, and ductility. This study investigates the microstructural evolution, oxidation behavior, and mechanical properties of NbTi-based alloys containing 5 to 10 at. pct Co, Cr, and Ni. CALPHAD predictions suggest that this composition range can be heat treated to obtain a predominantly body-centered cubic matrix phase. Mechanical properties, including microhardness, yield strength, maximum strength, and specific strength are evaluated through isothermal compression tests conducted between room temperature and 800 °C. The oxidation kinetics of these alloys are assessed through discontinuous oxidation tests. Parabolic oxidation kinetics were observed for NbTi–10Ni and NbTi–5Co, while linear oxidation kinetics were found for NbTi–10Cr and NbTi–10(CoCrNi). Microstructures and oxide layers are characterized using X-ray diffraction, electron backscatter diffraction, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy. All alloys exhibit significant mechanical softening between room temperature and 800 °C, with elastic-perfectly plastic flow observed at 800 °C. The addition of 10 pct Cr to NbTi resulted in two BCC phases up to 1050 °C, conflicting with CALPHAD predictions of a single-phase solid solution at this temperature, and resulting in higher flow stress at 800 °C. NbTi–10(CoCrNi) exhibited the lowest flow stress at 800 °C despite having more ‘cocktail effect’ potential and insufficient molar fractions of Co, Cr, or Ni to form a desirable protective oxide film.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1955

Development of a high-velocity free-flight launcher : the Ames light-gas gun

Recent interest in long-range missiles has stimulated a search for new experimental techniques which can reproduce in the laboratory the high temperatures and Mach numbers associated with the missiles' flight. One promising possibility lies in free-flight testing of laboratory models which are flown at the full velocity of the missile. In this type of test, temperatures are approximated and aerodynamic heating of the model is representative of that experienced by the missile in high-velocity flight. A prime requirement of the free-flight test technique is a device which had the capacity for launching models at the velocities desired. In response to thie need, a gun firing light models at velocities up to 15,000 feet per second has been developed at the Ames Aeronautical Laboratory. The design of this gun, the analysis of its performance, and the results of the initial firing trials are described in this paper. The firing trials showed that the measured velocities and pressures agreed well with the predicted values. Also, the erosion of the launch tube was very small for the eleven rounds fired. The performance of the gun suggests that it will prove to be a satisfactory launcher for high-velocity free-flight tests. However, it should be mentioned that only the gross performance has been evaluated so far, and, consequently, the operation of the gun must be investigated in further detail before its performance can be reliably predicted over its full operating range.

Charters, A C↗

NASA NTRS2026

Introduction to the Special Issue on Advanced Air Mobility Noise: Predictions, Measurements and Perception

This Special Issue focuses on noise associated with Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), an emerging class of predominantly electric distributed-propulsion aircraft designed for urban and regional transportation. As these vehicles move toward certification and deployment, noise has become a central challenge for regulatory approval and public acceptance, particularly due to operations in densely populated areas and at low altitudes. The 24 contributions in this issue address three key aspects of AAM noise: prediction, measurement, and human perception. Prediction studies span a wide range of modeling fidelities, from high-resolution simulations to improved semi-analytical approaches, and examine complex aeroacoustic mechanisms including rotor interactions, turbulence ingestion, and broadband noise generation. Measurement studies, largely at model scale, provide new insights into tonal and broadband noise characteristics across configurations and operating conditions, while supporting model validation. Perception-focused contributions investigate annoyance, sound quality metrics, and auralization, emphasizing the role of context and operational factors in shaping human response. Together, these works highlight the interdisciplinary nature of AAM noise research and the need for integrated approaches to enable quieter vehicle design.

Perception↗

NASA NTRS1982

Numerical prediction of the Mid-Atlantic states cyclone of 18-19 February 1979

A series of forecast experiments was conducted to assess the accuracy of the GLAS model, and to determine the importance of large scale dynamical processes and diabatic heating to the cyclogenesis. The GLAS model correctly predicted intense coastal cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation. Repeated without surface heat and moisture fluxes, the model failed to predict any cyclone development. An extended range forecast, a forecast from the NMC analysis interpolated to the GLAS grid, and a forecast from the GLAS analysis with the surface moisture flux excluded predicted weak coastal low development. Diabatic heating resulting from oceanic fluxes significantly contributed to the generation of low level cyclonic vorticity and the intensification and slow rate of movement of an upper level ridge over the western Atlantic. As an upper level short wave trough approached this ridge, diabatic heating associated with the release of latent heat intensified, and the gradient of vorticity, vorticity advection and upper level divergence in advance of the trough were greatly increased, providing strong large scale forcing for the surface cyclogenesis.

Atlas, R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

A preliminary correlation of the orbiter stability and control aerodynamics from the first two Space Shuttle flights /STS-1 & 2/ with preflight predictions

A correlation of the stability and control derivatives from flight (STS-1 & 2) with preflight predictions is presented across the Mach range from 0.9 to 25. Flight data obtained from specially designed flight test maneuvers as well as from conventional bank maneuvers generally indicate good agreement with predicted data. However, the vehicle appears to be lateral-directionally more stable than predicted in the transonic regime. Aerodynamic 'reasonableness tests' are employed to test for validity of flight data. The importance of testing multiple models in multiple wind tunnels at the same test conditions is demonstrated.

Underwood, J. M.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Brown watersnakes (Nerodia taxispilota) as bioindicators of mercury contamination in a riverine system

Herein, mercury (Hg) is a contaminant that enters the environment through natural or anthropogenic means. Ecological risk assessments have examined Hg bioaccumulation and effects in many taxa, but little is known about Hg dynamics in reptiles, or their potential use as bioindicator species for monitoring Hg in aquatic systems. Numerous snake species, like North American watersnakes (Nerodia spp.), are piscivorous and are exposed to Hg through their diet. The purpose of this study was to identify factors associated with Hg accumulation in a common watersnake species and compare Hg concentrations of the snakes to those in fish occupying the same habitats. To this end, we sampled brown watersnakes (Nerodia taxispilota) from the Savannah River, a major river system in the southeastern U.S., and compared N. taxispilota Hg accumulation trends to those of bass (Micropterus salmoides), catfish (Ictalurus and Ameiurus spp.), and panfish (Lepomis and Pomoxis spp.) collected from the same reach. Total Hg (THg) in N. taxispilota tail tips ranged from 0.020 to 0.431 mg/kg (wet weight; mean: 0.104 ± 0.008). Snake tail THg was significantly correlated with blood THg, which ranged from 0.003 to 1.140 mg/kg (0.154 ± 0.019). Snake size and site of capture were significantly associated with tail THg. Snake tail THg increased at sites along and downstream of the area of historic Hg pollution, consistent with fish THg. Snake muscle THg was predicted based on tail THg and ranged from 0.095 to 1.160 (0.352 ± 0.022). To gauge Hg biomagnification in N. taxispilota, we compared predicted snake muscle THg concentrations to THg in fish of consumable size. Average biomagnification factors for THg in N. taxispilota were 3.1 (panfish) and 5.4 (catfish), demonstrating N. taxispilota likely biomagnify Hg through their diet. These results reveal N. taxispilota to be an effective bioindicator species for monitoring Hg in aquatic environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Structure and Parameter Uncertainty in Centennial Projections of Forest Community Structure and Carbon Cycling

Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi‐decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand‐replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub‐model–parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under‐predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant–soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED‐2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models.

canopy radiative transfer↗

DOE OSTI2025

Combination of searches for singly produced vectorlike top quarks in 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ =13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A combination of searches for the single production of vectorlike top quarks (𝑇) is presented. These analyses are based on proton-proton collisions at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV recorded in 2015–2018 with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb −1 . The 𝑇 decay modes considered in this combination are into a top quark and either a Standard Model Higgs boson or a 𝑍 boson (𝑇 → 𝐻⁡𝑡 and 𝑇 → 𝑍⁢𝑡). The individual searches used in the combination are differentiated by the number of leptons (𝑒, 𝜇) in the final state. The observed data are found to be in good agreement with the Standard Model background prediction. Interpretations are provided for a range of masses and couplings of the vectorlike top quark for benchmark models and generalized representations in terms of 95% confidence level limits. For a benchmark signal prediction of a vectorlike top quark SU(2) singlet with electroweak coupling, 𝜅, of 0.5, masses below 2.1 TeV are excluded, resulting in the most restrictive limits to date.

Composite models↗