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At least 829 records · Page 46

Hybrid power plants: An effective way of decreasing loss-of-load expectation

Diversifying variable renewable resources by combining wind, solar photovoltaic, and battery assets in a hybrid power plant can increase renewable energy usage efficiency and improve system flexibility, particularly in distributed energy systems. However, the resilience impact of these systems, particularly outage mitigation, can be difficult to quantify due to uncertainty in resource, energy demand, and outage occurrence. Here, this study outlines a framework to quantify the incremental benefit of hybrid power plant assets for reducing loss-of-load expectation during random outage events. Hybrid power plant performance during outages (considering varying duration and severity) is simulated using a Monte Carlo methodology to reflect uncertainty associated with renewable resource, load demand, and outage timing. Results demonstrate the additional incremental value from increasingly hybrid designs, in which relative capacities of wind, solar photovoltaic, and storage assets contribute to lower loss-of-load expectation than the constituent technologies would alone. The value of added wind or solar capacity increases as the plant composition approaches an equal split. The value of added battery capacity depends on the outage duration and severity, but the first 50 MWh of added storage capacity is the most valuable for reducing the loss-of-load expectation for all plant designs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Resilience-Oriented DG Siting and Sizing Considering Stochastic Scenario Reduction

In this paper, a fuel-based distributed generator (DG) allocation strategy is proposed to enhance the distribution system resilience against extreme weather. The long-term planning problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer programming (SMIP). The first stage is to make decisions of DG siting and sizing under the given budget constraint. In the second stage, a post-extreme-event-restoration (PEER) is employed to minimize the operating cost in an uncertain fault scenario. In particular, this study proposes a method to select the most representative scenarios for the SMIP. First, a Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) is introduced to generate sufficient scenarios considering random fault locations and load profiles. Then, the number of scenarios is reduced by the K-means clustering algorithm. The advantage of scenario reduction is to make a trade-off between accuracy and computational efficiency. Finally, the SMIP is solved by the progressive hedging algorithm. Here, the case studies of the IEEE 33-bus and 123-bus test systems demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in reducing the expected energy not served (EENS), which is a critical criterion of resilience.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experimental Characterization and Modeling of High Hole Mobility GeSn Quantum Wells: The Role of Alloy Disorder Scattering

Understanding mechanisms influencing electrical transport in material systems not only provides a scientific explanation for observed behavior but also offers insight into ways to enhance transport in devices. This study reports experimental hole mobility of 8 x 10 4 cm 2 V -1 s -1 in a Ge 0.92 Sn 0.08 , the highest recorded mobility for the GeSn system. A study of the material's quality is presented using structural and electrical characterization techniques, with transport data being supported by simulations using an extensive modeling framework. Quantum Hall measurements further indicate the material's high quality and potential spintronic applications, with extracted values of 0.0689$m$ 0 and 13.6 for the effective mass and effective g‐factor, respectively. It is observed that transport is limited by alloy disorder scattering at cryogenic temperatures. A comparative study between the presented structure and similar quantum well heterostructures revealed that the difference in hole mobilities is captured by a disparity in the reduced nominal alloy disorder scattering potential (Δ U alloy = 0.8 eV), that is lower than the value of a fully random alloy (Δ U alloy = 1.4–1.7 eV) potential. The difference in Δ U alloy suggests that heterostructures with similar geometries and alloy compositions can have different alloy disorder scattering, implying that an underlying mechanism, such as short‐range order, may be responsible and warrants further investigation.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Smart detection of indoor occupant thermal state via infrared thermography, computer vision, and machine learning

The ability to measure occupants’ thermal state in real time will enable major advances in the control of air conditioning systems. This study proposes predicting occupant thermal state by a combination of infrared thermography, computer vision, and machine learning. The approach (1) uses cheek, nose, and hand temperatures because they are least subject to blockage by hair, glasses, and clothing; (2) measures the distribution of skin temperatures within geometrically defined sub-areas of the face and hand; and (3) uses temperature differences within and between these areas to eliminate the effects of calibration drift that are unavoidable in thermal infrared (TIR) cameras. Two series of tests were conducted, respectively in an outdoor carport and an indoor environmental chamber, collecting a total of 48,422 sets of cheek, nose, and hand skin temperatures using a TIR camera and computer-vision technology, coupled with 715 subjective responses of thermal sensations. To predict occupant thermal state, Random Forest classification models were built using either absolute skin temperatures (the maximum and median temperatures of cheek and hand segments, and the temperature of the central spot on the nose), or intra- and inter-segment temperature differences of cheeks, hands, and nose. These measurements were found to accurately predict occupant thermal state. Using the maximum and median temperatures for cheek and nose, or for cheek and hand, predicts thermal state with an accuracy of 92–96%. In conclusion, using only the intra- and inter-segment temperature differences from cheek and nose is 83% accurate; adding the hand temperature differences increases the accuracy to 96%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Revisit the VEC criterion in high entropy alloys (HEAs) with high-throughput ab initio calculations: A case study with Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni system

Valence electron concentration (VEC) was treated as a useful parameter to predict the stability of solid solution phases. However, the available experimental data to support this criterion is far from enough. In the current study, the high-throughput ab initio modeling is applied to investigate the relative stability of FCC and BCC single crystals of the Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni high entropy alloys (HEAs) by using the special quasi-random structure (SQS) approach. Furthermore, the predictions start with pure elements of the Al-Co-Cr-Fe-Ni system and are continued with binaries, ternaries, and quaternary compositions, which come up with 180 compositions (360 structures). After that, the reliability of the VEC criterion is testified. The results show that the VEC criterion not only works for the stable structure but also works effectively for metastable structure when both FCC and BCC are not thermodynamic stable. However, it is found that the old VEC criterion proposed by Guo et al. fails to work effectively for compositions containing high concentrations of light-weight metals such as Al at VEC<5. To solve this problem, the present work proposes a new VEC rule to define the stability of FCC and BCC structures at the ground state. With the implementation of the new VEC rule, the effectiveness of the VEC rule (EVEC) of both FCC and BCC structures is enhanced, especially for pure elements and binary compositions, indicating that this rule does not only work effectively for multicomponent systems but also works for low-order systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Subhaloes are anisotropically distributed and aligned with the smooth matter distribution of their host haloes

ABSTRACT We investigate the distributions of subhaloes about their hosts in two suites of zoom-in N-body simulations of halo growth – one suite focused on Milky Way-Mass haloes ($\sim 10^{12} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$) and another focused on cluster-mass haloes ($\sim 10^{15} \, \mathrm{M}_{\odot }$) in the Symphony simulation suite. We find, in agreement with previous work on this subject, that subhaloes are distributed anisotropically about their host haloes. In particular, the positions of subhaloes lie preferentially near the major axes of their host haloes, possibly implying that satellite galaxies will exhibit a similar alignment. Furthermore, we show that in two-dimensional projection subhaloes are more likely to be observed near the halo centre (where the central galaxy presumably resides) when the host halo is projected nearly along its major axis. This projection effect is significant. Within projected radii of a few per cent of the virial radius of the host halo, the fraction of mass in subhaloes is $\sim 175~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ larger for Milky Way-mass haloes and as much as $\sim 195~{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$ larger for cluster haloes when projected along the major axis as compared to the average from a random projection. This result has consequences for many applications including the interpretation of gravitational lenses. Finally, we find that the orbital angular momentum vector of subhaloes is aligned with the angular momentum vector of their host halo, indicating that a significant component of a halo’s angular momentum may be carried in its subhaloes. This has consequences for galaxy formation models which use host halo angular momentum as a proxy for galaxy momentum.

Mezini, Lorena (ORCID:0000000300053973)↗

Entanglement-fidelity limits of photonically networked atomic qubits from recoil and timing

The remote entanglement of two atomic quantum memories through photonic interactions is accompanied by atomic momentum recoil. When the interactions occur at different times, such as from the random emission over the lifetime of the atomic excited state, the difference in recoil timing can expose “which-path” information and ultimately lead to decoherence. Time-bin encoded photonic qubits can be particularly sensitive to asynchronous recoil timing. In this paper we study the limits of entanglement fidelity in atomic systems due to recoil and other timing imbalances and show how these effects can be suppressed or even eliminated through proper experimental design.

Quantum communication↗

Evaluating proxies for the drivers of natural gas productivity using machine-learning models

We report the extensive development of unconventional reservoirs using horizontal drilling and multistage hydraulic fracturing has generated large volumes of reservoir characterization and production data. The analysis of this abundant data using statistical methods and advanced machine-learning (ML) techniques can provide data-driven insights into well performance. Most predictive modeling studies have focused on the impact that different well completion and stimulation strategies have on well production but have not fully exploited the available in situ rock property data to determine its role in reservoir productivity. We have used machine-learning techniques to rank rock mechanical properties, microseismic attributes, and stimulation parameters in the order of their significance for predicting natural gas production from an unconventional reservoir. The data for this study came from a hydraulically fractured well in the Marcellus Shale in Monongalia County, West Virginia. The data classes included measurements aggregated by well completion stage that included (1) gas production, (2) well-log-derived measurements including bulk density, elastic moduli, shear impedance, compressional impedance, brittleness, and gamma measurements, (3) microseismic attributes, (4) long-period long-duration (LPLD) event counts, (5) fracture counts, and (6) stimulation parameters that included the fluid injection volume and average pumping pressure. To identify observable proxies for the drivers of gas production, we evaluated five commonly used ML approaches including multivariate adaptive regression spline, Gaussian mixture model, random forest, gradient boosting, and neural network. We selected five variables including LPLD event count, seismogenic b-value, hydraulic diffusivity, cumulative moment, and fluid volume as the features most likely to impact gas productivity at the stage level in the study area. The data-driven selection of these parameters for their importance in determining gas production can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs. Plain language summary: We use machine-learning methods and data-driven selection of reservoir parameters to rank and better understand their importance in determining gas production, which can help reservoir engineers design more effective hydraulic-fracture treatments in the Marcellus Shale and other similar unconventional reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Target Selection and Validation of DESI Quasars

The Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) survey will measure large-scale structures using quasars as direct tracers of dark matter in the redshift range 0.9 < z < 2.1 and using Lyα forests in quasar spectra at z > 2.1. We present several methods to select candidate quasars for DESI, using input photometric imaging in three optical bands (g, r, z) from the DESI Legacy Imaging Surveys and two infrared bands (W1, W2) from the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer. These methods were extensively tested during the Survey Validation of DESI. In this paper, we report on the results obtained with the different methods and present the selection we optimized for the DESI main survey. The final quasar target selection is based on a random forest algorithm and selects quasars in the magnitude range of 16.5 < r < 23. Visual selection of ultra-deep observations indicates that the main selection consists of 71% quasars, 16% galaxies, 6% stars, and 7% inconclusive spectra. Using the spectra based on this selection, we build an automated quasar catalog that achieves a fraction of true QSOs higher than 99% for a nominal effective exposure time of ~1000 s. With a 310 deg -2 target density, the main selection allows DESI to select more than 200 deg -2 quasars (including 60 deg -2 quasars with z > 2.1), exceeding the project requirements by 20%. The redshift distribution of the selected quasars is in excellent agreement with quasar luminosity function predictions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Plasmons in Z 2 topological insulators

Here, we study plasmonic excitations in the Kane-Mele model, a two-dimensional Z 2 topological insulator on the honeycomb lattice, using the random phase approximation (RPA). In the topologically nontrivial phase, the model has conducting edge states that traverse the bulk energy gap and display spin-momentum locking. Such a state of matter is called the quantum spin hall (QSH) phase, which is robust against time-reversal (TR) invariant perturbations. We find that in the QSH phase, gapless spin-polarized plasmons can be excited on the edges of the system. The propagation of these plasmons is chiral for each individual spin component and shows spin-momentum locking for both spin components on the same edge. Moreover, we study the effect of external magnetic fields on the gapless edge plasmons. Specifically, out-of-plane magnetic fields delocalize edge plasmons propagating in one direction without affecting the other one, while an in-plane magnetic field can be applied to selectively excite a specific spin-plasmon branch with proper doping or gating to the system. Our findings may have potential applications in novel plasmonic and spintronic devices. We also investigate plasmons in the Kane-Mele model on a finite-sized diamond-shaped nanoflake and observe low-energy plasmons circulating the boundary of the material.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Peak Rain Rate Sensitivity to Observed Cloud Condensation Nuclei and Turbulence in Continental Warm Shallow Clouds During CACTI

Abstract Warm clouds strongly affect Earth's energy budget but remain imperfectly represented in climate models, partly due to the complexity and covariability of relevant processes influencing warm rain. This work presents a detailed analysis of different factors affecting rain rate peak intensity (RR) in continental warm clouds. Clouds were identified with vertically pointing radar and lidar observations and categorized via a temperature‐based cloud type classification algorithm from which warm clouds were isolated. Observations and retrievals of liquid water path (LWP), cloud condensation nuclei concentration (N CCN ), cloud depth, and cloud duration of more than 3,000 separate warm clouds sampled during the Cloud, Aerosol, and Complex Terrain Interactions (CACTI) field campaign are analyzed in this work. Multiple linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models are applied to assess the relative impact of these variables on RR. Overall, RR tends to increase as cloud depth, LWP, and cloud duration increase, or N CCN decreases. Cloud depth affects RR the most while N CCN impacts it the least. When considering over 170 warm clouds observed at least 1 hr in which in‐cloud turbulence is retrieved, the effect of N CCN on RR remains most likely suppressive, but it is not significant at a 75% level for MLR and is highly uncertain for RF. The impact of in‐cloud turbulence depends on the moment and location it is sampled. Cloud base turbulence around the time of RR suppresses RR, while cloud top turbulence effects are inconclusive. Possible difficulties in isolating robust CCN and turbulence effects on RR are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Severe, short-term sleep restriction reduces gut microbiota community richness but does not alter intestinal permeability in healthy young men

Sleep restriction alters gut microbiota composition and intestinal barrier function in rodents, but whether similar effects occur in humans is unclear. This study aimed to determine the effects of severe, short-term sleep restriction on gut microbiota composition and intestinal permeability in healthy adults. Fecal microbiota composition, measured by 16S rRNA sequencing, and intestinal permeability were measured in 19 healthy men (mean ± SD; BMI 24.4 ± 2.3 kg/m 2 , 20 ± 2 years) undergoing three consecutive nights of adequate sleep (AS; 7–9 h sleep/night) and restricted sleep (SR; 2 h sleep/night) in random order with controlled diet and physical activity. α-diversity measured by amplicon sequencing variant (ASV) richness was 21% lower during SR compared to AS (P = 0.03), but α-diversity measured by Shannon and Simpson indexes did not differ between conditions. Relative abundance of a single ASV within the family Ruminococcaceae was the only differentially abundant taxon (q = 0.20). No between-condition differences in intestinal permeability or β-diversity were observed. Findings indicated that severe, short-term sleep restriction reduced richness of the gut microbiota but otherwise minimally impacted community composition and did not affect intestinal permeability in healthy young men.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Addressing bias in bagging and boosting regression models

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes widespread, there is increasing attention on investigating bias in machine learning (ML) models. Previous research concentrated on classification problems, with little emphasis on regression models. This paper presents an easy-to-apply and effective methodology for mitigating bias in bagging and boosting regression models, that is also applicable to any model trained through minimizing a differentiable loss function. Our methodology measures bias rigorously and extends the ML model's loss function with a regularization term to penalize high correlations between model errors and protected attributes. We applied our approach to three popular tree-based ensemble models: a random forest model (RF), a gradient-boosted model (GBT), and an extreme gradient boosting model (XGBoost). We implemented our methodology on a case study for predicting road-level traffic volume, where RF, GBT, and XGBoost models were shown to have high accuracy. Despite high accuracy, the ML models were shown to perform poorly on roads in minority-populated areas. Our bias mitigation approach reduced minority-related bias by over 50%.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A unified understanding of minimum lattice thermal conductivity

Here, we propose a first-principles model of minimum lattice thermal conductivity ($κ^{min}_L$) based on a unified theoretical treatment of thermal transport in crystals and glasses. We apply this model to thousands of inorganic compounds and find a universal behavior of $κ^{min}_L$ in crystals in the high-temperature limit: The isotropically averaged $κ^{min}_L$ is independent of structural complexity and bounded within a range from ~0.1 to ~2.6 W/(m K), in striking contrast to the conventional phonon gas model which predicts no lower bound. We unveil the underlying physics by showing that for a given parent compound, $κ^{min}_L$ is bounded from below by a value that is approximately insensitive to disorder, but the relative importance of different heat transport channels (phonon gas versus diffuson) depends strongly on the degree of disorder. Moreover, we propose that the diffuson-dominated $κ^{min}_L$ in complex and disordered compounds might be effectively approximated by the phonon gas model for an ordered compound by averaging out disorder and applying phonon unfolding. With these insights, we further bridge the knowledge gap between our model and the well-known Cahill–Watson–Pohl (CWP) model, rationalizing the successes and limitations of the CWP model in the absence of heat transfer mediated by diffusons. Finally, we construct graph network and random forest machine learning models to extend our predictions to all compounds within the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database (ICSD), which were validated against thermoelectric materials possessing experimentally measured ultralow κ L . Our work offers a unified understanding of $κ^{min}_L$, which can guide the rational engineering of materials to achieve .

42 ENGINEERING↗

Placebo-resistant gut bacteria: Akkermansia muciniphila spp. and Familial Mediterranean fever disease

Introduction: Despite numerous investigations into the impact of drugs/probiotics on the gut microbiota composition in Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF) patients, the question as to whether there exists a significant bacterial diversity(ies) independent of the placebo effect that can be reliably considered in clinical and nutritional trials remains unresolved. Methods: This study represents the in augural analysis of the placebo’s influence on the gut microbiota of both healthy individuals and FMF afflicted men, utilizing previously collected data from PhyloChip™ DNA microarray experiments. A total of 15 healthy and 15 FMF male volunteers, aged 18 to 50, participated in this partially randomized placebo trial, which is accessible through the GEO Series accession number GSE111835. Results and Discussion: Key findings from current investigations include i. the anticipated divergence in gut bacteria resistance to placebo between healthy and FMF individuals, ii. the minor impact of placebo on gut bacterial diversities in healthy individuals, with Enterobacteriaceae diversities identified as placebo-resistant among “healthy” gut bacteria, and iii. the comprehensive influence of placebo on all bacterial phyla in the gut microbiome of FMF patients, extending to nearly all bacterial genera, except for the resilience of gut Akkermansia muciniphila spp. to placebo in FMF patients. This study underscores the susceptibility of Faecalibacterium, Blautia, and Clostridium genera to placebo. Consequently, this investigation holds significance for the proper design of placebo-controlled trials and establishes a foundation for further exploration of the gut-brain axis. Furthermore, it contributes valuable insights to discussions regarding proposals for probiotic therapies, particularly focusing on Faecalibacterium spp., Blautia spp., and Clostridium spp.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Impact of the Earthquake Rupture on Ground-Motion Variability of the 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 Amatrice, Italy, Earthquake

Here, the devastating 24 August 2016 M w 6.2 earthquake that struck Amatrice, Italy, marked the beginning of a prolonged seismic sequence dominated by three subsequent M w ≥6.0 events in the central Apennines region. The earthquake destroyed Amatrice’s historic center, claiming the lives of 299 individuals and causing widespread damage in the neighboring villages. The severity of the ground shaking, with a recorded maximum acceleration of 850 cm/s 2 on the east–west component at the Amatrice station, was far greater than the predicted acceleration based on the Italian ground-motion model (GMM). As pointed out by several investigations, the observed ground-motion amplitude and its spatial variability during the earthquake can be linked to specific rupture characteristics, including slip distribution and rupture directivity effects revealed by the observed data (Tinti et al., 2016; Pischiutta et al., 2021). In this study, we conducted physics-based 3D numerical simulations of ground motion for the Amatrice earthquake for frequencies up to 3 Hz. We employed a series of kinematic rupture models and a well-constrained local 3D velocity model incorporating surface topography. The kinematic rupture realizations were generated using multiscale hybrid and fully stochastic models, following the technique proposed by Graves and Pitarka (2016). We focused on assessing the sensitivity of near-fault ground-motion amplitudes to earthquake rupture characteristics, in particular, the spatial slip pattern. To evaluate the quality of our simulations, we employed goodness-of-fit measurements performed in comparisons of simulated and recorded ground motions. The simulated ground motions compare well with the recorded data and predictions from GMMs for Italy, ITA18 (Lanzano et al., 2019). However, we found that the simulated interevent ground-motion variability (randomness in the source process) of peak ground velocity, σ (PGV) is higher than the constant σ (PGV) predicted by conventional GMMs. Our simulations using several rupture scenarios demonstrate that the near-fault ground-motion amplification pattern is directly related to the slip distribution pattern.

3D Ground Motions Simulations↗

Estimating rates and patterns of diversification with incomplete sampling: a case study in the rosids

Premise Recent advances in generating large‐scale phylogenies enable broad‐scale estimation of species diversification. These now common approaches typically are characterized by (1) incomplete species coverage without explicit sampling methodologies and/or (2) sparse backbone representation, and usually rely on presumed phylogenetic placements to account for species without molecular data. We used empirical examples to examine the effects of incomplete sampling on diversification estimation and provide constructive suggestions to ecologists and evolutionary biologists based on those results. Methods We used a supermatrix for rosids and one well‐sampled subclade (Cucurbitaceae) as empirical case studies. We compared results using these large phylogenies with those based on a previously inferred, smaller supermatrix and on a synthetic tree resource with complete taxonomic coverage. Finally, we simulated random and representative taxon sampling and explored the impact of sampling on three commonly used methods, both parametric (RPANDA and BAMM) and semiparametric (DR). Results We found that the impact of sampling on diversification estimates was idiosyncratic and often strong. Compared to full empirical sampling, representative and random sampling schemes either depressed or inflated speciation rates, depending on methods and sampling schemes. No method was entirely robust to poor sampling, but BAMM was least sensitive to moderate levels of missing taxa. Conclusions We suggest caution against uncritical modeling of missing taxa using taxonomic data for poorly sampled trees and in the use of summary backbone trees and other data sets with high representative bias, and we stress the importance of explicit sampling methodologies in macroevolutionary studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning in materials research: Developments over the last decade and challenges for the future

The number of studies that apply machine learning (ML) to materials science has been growing at a rate of approximately 1.67 times per year over the past decade. In this review, I examine this growth in various contexts. First, I present an analysis of the most commonly used tools (software, databases, materials science methods, and ML methods) used within papers that apply ML to materials science. The analysis demonstrates that despite the growth of deep learning techniques, the use of classical machine learning is still dominant as a whole. It also demonstrates how new research can effectively build upon past research, particular in the domain of ML models trained on density functional theory calculation data. Next, I present the progression of best scores as a function of time on the matbench materials science benchmark for formation enthalpy prediction. In particular, a dramatic improvement of 7 times reduction in error is obtained when progressing from feature-based methods that use conventional ML (random forest, support vector regression, etc.) to the use of graph neural network techniques. Finally, I provide views on future challenges and opportunities, focusing on data size and complexity, extrapolation, interpretation, access, and relevance.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗