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At least 829 records · Page 46

Application of Compressive Sensing to Gravitational Microlensing Data and Implications for Miniaturized Space Observatories

Compressive Sensing is a technique for simultaneous acquisition and compression of data that is sparse or can be made sparse in some domain. It is currently under intense development and has been profitably employed for industrial and medical applications. We here describe the use of this technique for the processing of astronomical data. We outline the procedure as applied to exoplanet gravitational microlensing and analyze measurement results and uncertainty values. We describe implications for on-spacecraft data processing for space observatories. Our findings suggest that application of these techniques may yield significant, enabling benefits especially for power and volume-limited space applications such as miniaturized or micro-constellation satellites.

Gravitational Microlensing↗

Application of Compressive Sensing to Gravitational Microlensing Data and Implications for Miniaturized Space Observatories

Compressive Sensing is a technique for simultaneous acquisition and compression of data that is sparse or can be made sparse in some domain. It is currently under intense development and has been profitably employed for industrial and medical applications. We here describe the use of this technique for the processing of astronomical data. We outline the procedure as applied to exoplanet gravitational microlensing and analyze measurement results and uncertainty values. We describe implications for on-spacecraft data processing for space observatories. Our findings suggest that application of these techniques may yield significant, enabling benefits especially for power and volume-limited space applications such as miniaturized or micro-constellation satellites.

Compressive Sensing↗

50-Year Window to Establish a Space Faring Civilization

Humankind may only have a short window of 50 years to become a space-faring civilization, after which time the opportunity to do so may become too difficult or impractical to pursue. Current policies for space exploration and infrastructure development implicitly assume a gradualistic approach to technology, budgets, and mission execution -- the common thought has been that there will be plenty of time in humankind's future to become a space-based species, and whatever we are unable to accomplish will be borne by the generations that follow. However, considering natural events, available energy, and human tendencies, the timing to make the most effective effort to achieve multi-planet status might be now, before momentum is lost and we become distracted by Peak Oil and changing energy economies -- restarting a space program after such turmoil may be more difficult than would be practical without cheap, storable, high-energy density petroleum. "Space-faring civilization" is defined as an economically profitable space-based economy that demands the presence of humans off-world in order to sustain a high level of prosperity. An initial foothold for a space-based economy that would fit within the 50-year window might include Earth dependence on rare-earth elements or other hard-to-obtain minerals mined from moons or asteroids, or a permanent settlement on another planet. Using published sources, notional mass and energy requirements for a minimal self-sustaining Mars settlement is calculated, and the number of launch vehicles discussed. Setting the launch schedule to match that of current NASA projections, it could take more than 26 years of semi-annual launches to build up such a self-sustaining human settlement -- a cost and commitment that has not been acknowledged nor planned for. Considering the time required to establish a multi-planet species, this paper frames the required window of decision that, if not taken, could condemn the species to Earth subject to whatever natural or human-made calamities that endanger single-planet civilizations.

human exploration↗

Business Case Analysis of the Towed Gilder Air Launched System (TGALS)

The Aerospace Corporation developed an integrated Business Case Analysis (BCA) model on behalf of the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC). This model evaluated the potential profitability of the Towed Glider Air Launched System (TGALS) concept, under development at AFRC, identifying potential technical, programmatic, and business decisions that could improve its business viability. The model addressed system performance metrics; development, production and operation cost estimates; market size and product service positioning; pricing alternatives; and market share.

TGALS↗

CubeSat Launch Initiative Overview and CubeSat 101

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) recognizes the tremendous potential that CubeSats (very small satellites) have to inexpensively demonstrate advanced technologies, collect scientific data, and enhance student engagement in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM). The CubeSat Launch Initiative (CSLI) was created to provide launch opportunities for CubeSats developed by academic institutions, non-profit entities, and NASA centers. This presentation will provide an overview of the CSLI, its benefits, and its results. This presentation will also provide high level CubeSat 101 information for prospective CubeSat developers, describing the development process from concept through mission operations while highlighting key points that developers need to be mindful of.

Launching↗

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model: A Unified Tool from Local to Global Scales

We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (approximately 25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest resolution compared to current, publically-available global composition forecasts. Evaluation and validation of modeled trace gases and aerosols compared to surface and satellite observations will be presented for constituents relative to health air quality standards. Comparisons of modeled trace gases and aerosols against satellite observations show that the model produces realistic concentrations of atmospheric constituents in the free troposphere. Model comparisons against surface observations highlight the model's capability to capture the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. The GEOS-5 composition forecasting system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community, and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. Potential applications include air quality warnings, flight campaign planning and exposure studies using the archived analysis fields.

Knowland, E. Emma↗

Air Quality Forecasts Using the NASA GEOS Model

We provide an introduction to a new high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition forecast produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation office. The NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model has been expanded to provide global near-real-time forecasts of atmospheric composition at a horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees (~25 km). Previously, this combination of detailed chemistry and resolution was only provided by regional models. This system combines the operational GEOS-5 weather forecasting model with the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 11) to provide detailed chemical analysis of a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). The resolution of the forecasts is the highest resolution compared to current, publically-available global composition forecasts. Evaluation and validation of modeled trace gases and aerosols compared to surface and satellite observations will be presented for constituents relative to health air quality standards. Comparisons of modeled trace gases and aerosols against satellite observations show that the model produces realistic concentrations of atmospheric constituents in the free troposphere. Model comparisons against surface observations highlight the model's capability to capture the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. The GEOS-5 composition forecasting system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community, and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. Potential applications include air quality warnings, flight campaign planning and exposure studies using the archived analysis fields.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

The GeoCarb Mission: One Tool in the Evolving Understanding of Methane and Carbon Monoxide Budgets

NASA plans to operate an instrument in geostationary orbit over the Americas beginning in 2022. This mission allows a coordinated study of climate-determining carbon species. Prime focus is on CO2 fluxes, but the reactive species CO and CH4 are particularly relevant to IGAC. Measurements of solar-induced fluorescence will describe plant photosynthesis contemporaneous with emissions. To outline the technology: Grating mapping spectrometery, using a single slit and four focal planes set at 0.76, 1.60, 2.07, and 2.32 microns and ~17000 resolving power. Retrieval profiting from the rich heritage of OCO-2, GOSAT, TropOMI, and GOME/SCIAMACHY. Column concentrations of CO2, CH4, and CO, with finest resolution at 3 km x 6 km. A selection of scans allowing appreciable refinement in fluxes of CO2 and CH4. Rapid re-pointing allowing at least one synoptic observation of all North and South America daily, and 3 observations through the day for selected areas.This presentation is an appeal to IGAC community to use GeoCarb to help improve the attribution of fluxes by sector and by geography. Cost constraints allow GeoCarb only limited listed goals. For example, GeoCarb aspires to constrain CH4 emissions for the whole US, closing the ~60% gap between US EPA estimation and 3-d models. Detailed CO measurements should also aid photochemical and aerosol studies. NASA's TEMPO (UV-Vis geostationary) instrument will overlap GeoCarb. Consequently, HCHO, NO2, aerosol, and CO may be intercompared, allowing elucidation of chemical sources and also transformation timescales. We expect that Sentinel-5P's TropOMI will lead the way here; geostationary imaging will allow diurnal views and reduced cloud obscuration of interesting areas. Analysis of current data suggests interesting questions: (a) puzzling XCH4 diel variations in the Amazonian rainforest; (b) time-varying CO/NO2 relationships in urban plumes. We also urge the suite of airborne and small-sat measurements needed to complete the story at fine scales.

Chatfield, Robert B.↗

Space Resources and Mining: Current Objectives, Plans, and Missions

Why are Space Resources and Their Use Important? There are many reasons why people and nations want to explore space, and there are many different ways in which space can be explored. A critical interface linking both the ‘why’ and the ‘how’ of space exploration is the identification, extraction, and use of resources in space. In both NASA’s Journey to Mars: Pioneering Next Steps in Space Exploration released in October of 2015 and the Global Exploration Roadmap released in August 2013, the ability to find, quantify, extract, process, and use space resources was identified as a critical objective by NASA and over 14 other space agencies for achieving affordable and sustainable human exploration beyond Earth’s orbit, encouraging and creating new commercial entities and markets based on space activities, and increasing the terrestrial economy and quality-of-life benefits for all humankind. Robotic and especially human space exploration up to this point in time can be considered to be ‘Earth reliant’ in that everything needed to support and enable the mission is launched from Earth. The past Apollo missions to the Moon and the International Space Station currently in orbit above the Earth all rely on hardware, habitats, power, transportation, and life support consumables sent from Earth to keep the crew alive and working. As the distance from Earth increases, the cost of transportation and the risks due to failures and logistics disruptions also increases. By using resources found at the site of exploration to make mission critical consumables (such as propellants, fuel cell reactants and life support commodities), spare parts, and infrastructure needed to support surface activities (such as landing pads, roads, habitats/shelters, and power/thermal systems) commonly referred to as In Situ Resource Utilization, a significant amount of launch mass and cost can be saved and risk reduced. The ability to do these things also changes how exploration is performed from Earth Reliant to NASA’s goal of ‘Earth Independent’ exploration. After the US Apollo program was over, people began to recognize that it had been an inspiration for a generation of young students to go into Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) fields, and that the US industry and economy had significantly grown and lived off these students and the technological advances made to achieve these missions for decades. Space exploration should no longer be focused solely on scientific advancement or national pride, but for economic growth and population standard of living advancement. Considering the economic value of human exploration and how it could expand the economy of the US was brought to full light in a speech by John Marburger, the director of US Office of Science and Technology Policy under George W Bush at the Goddard Symposium in 2006. In his speech he highlighted that the ultimate goal was not to just Explore space but to Use space for the benefit of mankind. He further stated that the use of off-planet resources, in this case from the Moon, should be a critical architectural consideration for human space exploration to make it more affordable and sustainable. This could be achieved in two ways. The first is to start by encouraging and commercializing the extraction and production of transportation and life support related products from space resources, which could than lead to other resource uses once an affordable transportation architecture is established. The second is to encourage the spin-in of terrestrial technologies into space applications and spin-off of space technologies into terrestrial applications to increase the efficiency and profitability of terrestrial industries.

Sanders, Gerald B.↗

2018 NISAR Applications Workshop: Agriculture and Soil Moisture: Workshop Report

Monitoring and measurement from earth observing satellites have been a means for understanding the natural resources of our planet for over 40 years. However, in the last 10 years, with the development of innovative signal processing techniques, the ability to measure changes in moisture content and structure to the survey quality required by land managers opened a new frontier for the monitoring and assessment of agricultural lands from space. NASA’s upcoming NISAR mission will be unique in providing comprehensive and frequent imaging of nearly all lands globally twice every twelve days with open access to the data. This is potentially a game-changer for planning and management of agriculture globally, particularly in areas with dense cloud cover or at high latitudes. The NISAR Agriculture and Soil Moisture Applications Workshop was held on June 26-28, 2018 at the USDA National Agricultural Library in Beltsville, Maryland with representative members from the broader agricultural community including non-profits, private, and government agencies to determine how to best leverage the NISAR mission for monitoring agricultural lands globally.

Stavros, Natasha↗

Balancing Public & Private Partnerships for Future Human Spaceflight

Privatization is key to America's current and future interests in Space and is consistent with the 2010 Title 51 "National Aeronautics and Space Act" which states "COMMERCIAL USE OF SPACE. - Congress declares that the general welfare of the United States requires that the Administration seek and encourage, to the maximum extent possible, the fullest commercial use of space." With this thought in mind, this paper discusses several key considerations when entering into a Human Spaceflight Public/Private partnership, with particular attention to the engineering team engagement. NASA's historically develops technology and capability in areas that are not commercially profitable but can enable future commercial opportunities. By leveraging the experiences and lessons learned from the past, we can improve our opportunities for success in the future. We have made great strides in these areas, but there is significant room for improvement. This paper intends to highlight many of the thoughts and considerations, which are necessary when developing a public/private partnership for "Human Spaceflight". Although this paper is being developed with an emphasis on "Human Spaceflight", many of the thoughts may have applicability to un-crewed missions. This paper does not attempt to define specific lines between government and private entities, since those lines vary based on many factors such as allocation of roles, responsibilities and accountabilities between participants and risk tolerance for both safety of flight and mission success.

Kennedy, John J.↗

Lunar Development Lab (LDL) Concept Leading to the First Human Lunar Outpost

The Lunar Development Lab (LDL) is a new concept to bring together academia, industry, non-profit organizations and NASA in an accelerator environment to generate new design solutions, technologies and architectures that will lead to the first human lunar outpost. By leveraging key partnerships in lunar science, mining, construction, chemical engineering and other key fields as well as making available rapid design, economic analysis, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) tools, significant progress can be made in a short amount of time. Therefore, the goal of LDL is to accelerate development and focus on economic solutions that can lead to sustainable and economical human lunar outpost.

Zuniga, Allison↗

NASA Centennial Challenge: 3D Printed Habitat, Phase 3 Final Results

NASA's Centennial Challenges program uses prize competitions with the goal of accelerating innovation in the aerospace industry. Competitions in the Centennial Challenges portfolio have previously focused on advancements in space robotics, regolith excavation, bio-printing, astronaut suit design, small satellites, and solar-powered vehicles. NASA's Three Dimensional (3D) Printed Habitat Centennial Challenge represents a partnership between NASA and the non-profit partner: Bradley University, with co-sponsors Caterpillar, Bechtel, Brick and Mortar Ventures, the American Concrete Institute, and the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) to spur development in automated additive construction technologies. The challenge asks teams to design and construct a scaled and simulated Martian habitat using indigenous materials and large scale 3D automated printing systems. Phase 1 of the competition, held in 2015, was an architectural design competition for habitat concepts that could be 3D printed. Phase 2, completed in 2017, asked teams to develop feedstocks from indigenous materials and hydrocarbon polymer recyclables, and demonstrate automated printing systems to manufacture these feedstocks into test specimens to assess mechanical strength. This paper will discuss the Phase 3 competition, focusing on technology outcomes that can potentially be infused into both terrestrial and planetary construction applications. The Phase 3 competition was divided into two sub-competitions: 1) virtual construction, where teams created a high fidelity building information model (BIM) of their 3D-printed habitat design and 2) the construction competition, which required teams to 3D print a structural foundation and subject materials samples to freeze/thaw testing and impact testing (level 1), produce a habitat element and complete a hydrostatic test (level 2), and additively manufacture a 1:3 scale habitat onsite in a head to head competition at Caterpillar, inc.'s Edwards Demonstration & Learning Center near Peoria, Illinois over the course of three days (level 3). While the Phase 2 competition focused primarily on the development of novel feedstocks and robotic printing systems, Phase 3 emphasized the scale-up of these systems and autonomous operation (demonstrating the capability to operate systems on precursor missions prior to the arrival of crew, or terrestrially in field operation settings where human tending of a manufacturing system may be limited). The Phase 3 virtual construction levels yielded a number of novel habitat designs, including both modular habitats and vertically-oriented habitat concepts. The Phase 3 construction competition also challenged teams to autonomously place penetrations and interfacing elements in additively manufactured structures. The paper will emphasize potential applications for the new materials and technologies developed under the umbrella of the competition within NASA's portfolio and in Earth-based applications such as disaster response and infrastructure improvement.

Construction↗

Nasa Centennial Challenge: Three Dimensional (3d) Printed Habitat, Phase 3

NASA's Centennial Challenges program uses prize competitions with the goal of accelerating innovation in the aerospace industry. Competitions in the Centennial Challenges portfolio have previously focused on advancements in space robotics, regolith excavation, bio-printing, astronaut suit design, small satellites, and solar-powered vehicles. NASA's Three Dimensional (3D) Printed Habitat Centennial Challenge represents a partnership between NASA and the non-profit partner: Bradley University, with co-sponsors Caterpillar, Bechtel, Brick and Mortar Ventures, the American Concrete Institute, and the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC) to spur development in automated additive construction technologies. The challenge asks teams to design and construct a scaled and simulated Martian habitat using indigenous materials and large scale 3D automated printing systems. Phase 1 of the competition, held in 2015, was an architectural design competition for habitat concepts that could be 3D printed. Phase 2, completed in 2017, asked teams to develop feedstocks from indigenous materials and hydrocarbon polymer recyclables, and demonstrate automated printing systems to manufacture these feedstocks into test specimens to assess mechanical strength. This paper will discuss the Phase 3 competition, focusing on technology outcomes that can potentially be infused into both terrestrial and planetary construction applications. The Phase 3 competition was divided into two sub-competitions: 1) virtual construction, where teams created a high fidelity building information model (BIM) of their 3D-printed habitat design and 2) the construction competition, which required teams to 3D print a structural foundation and subject materials samples to freeze/thaw testing and impact testing (level 1), produce a habitat element and complete a hydrostatic test (level 2), and additively manufacture a 1:3 scale habitat onsite in a head to head competition at Caterpillar, inc.'s Edwards Demonstration & Learning Center near Peoria, Illinois over the course of three days (level 3). While the Phase 2 competition focused primarily on the development of novel feedstocks and robotic printing systems, Phase 3 emphasized the scale-up of these systems and autonomous operation (demonstrating the capability to operate systems on precursor missions prior to the arrival of crew, or terrestrially in field operation settings where human tending of a manufacturing system may be limited). The Phase 3 virtual construction levels yielded a number of novel habitat designs, including both modular habitats and vertically-oriented habitat concepts. The Phase 3 construction competition also challenged teams to autonomously place penetrations and interfacing elements in additively manufactured structures. The paper will emphasize potential applications for the new materials and technologies developed under the umbrella of the competition within NASA's portfolio and in Earth-based applications such as disaster response and infrastructure improvement.

Centennial challenge↗

High Resolution Global Coupled Chemistry-Meteorology Simulations Using the NASA GEOS Composition Forecast System, GEOS-CF

We will give an overview of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Composition Forecast system (GEOS-CF), a high-resolution (0.25 degree) global composition model developed by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). This system combines the GEOS weather and aerosol model with the GEOS-Chem chemistry module (version 12) to provide a holistic view of atmospheric composition that captures a wide range of air pollutants such as ozone, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, and fine particulate matter. The spatial resolution of 0.25 degrees (approx. 25 km) is fine enough to resolve local features such as nighttime ozone titration previously resolved only by urban or regional models. Furthermore, since there are no boundary conditions for a global model, the GEOS-CF captures large-scale processes such as long-range transport of air pollutants from forest fires. Comparisons against surface observations highlight the model’s overall capability to reproduce the diurnal variability of air pollutants under a variety of meteorological conditions. In addition, we show how machine learning techniques can be used to correct for sub-grid variability, which further improves model estimates at a given surface observation site. The GEOS-CF system offers a new tool for scientists and the public health community alike and is being developed jointly with several government and non-profit partners. As an example, we will show the use of GEOS-CF during the Satellite Coastal and Oceanic Atmospheric Pollution Experiment (SCOAPE). The campaign, conducted in collaboration between NASA and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM), aims to investigate the response of onshore air quality to Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) oil and gas exploration, development and production. Detailed gas-phase chemistry, as provided by GEOS-CF, is critical to understand the formation of air pollution related to hydrocarbon emissions from offshore oil and gas activities. The accuracy of GEOS-CF can be further improved by incorporating detailed offshore emissions compiled by BOEM.

Knowland, K. Emma↗

Operating a Crewed Spacecraft in the Age of Commercial Space Using Private/Government Partnership

Fifty years after humans completed a large-scale United States government-funded and government-engineered effort of landing humans on the moon, human spaceflight has entered a new paradigm. Private companies are now investing their own money and taking on an ever-increasing role in human spaceflight, in partnership with the U.S. government. This paper will describe the development of one of these partnerships through the lens of its mission operations team. As part of the Commercial Crew Program (CCP), NASA selected Boeing’s CST-100 Starliner as one of the next generation of crewed vehicles. Boeing opted to partner with the US Government for their Starliner operations by contracting with NASA’s Mission Control teams in the Flight Operations Directorate (FOD) at the Johnson Space Center to create its own Mission Operations (MO) flight controllers. Partnering with FOD provided benefits to both Boeing and NASA while also creating new challenges. MO brought over 60 years of crewed spaceflight experience and infrastructure to Boeing’s new program. Within certain legal constraints, MO was able to work closely and efficiently with their FOD counterparts who were performing both integration duties and, under the auspices of the CCP, insight of the contractors, in this case Boeing. Involvement of NASA as the Boeing operations agent did lead to what management deemed a ‘healthy tension’ within FOD, challenging old processes and often creating better, more robust teamwork. Successful development of the framework and boundaries of both the legal aspects and the oversight tensions has been one of the keys to developing a successful corporate/government partnership. Due to the highly automated nature of the Starliner, the MO organization was designed to be much smaller than previous NASA’s flight control teams for past programs. NASA has learned through the decades that spacecraft design and operations need to be as flexible and forgiving as possible. NASA’s Commercial Crew Program was established to sponsor corporate development of economical vehicles that could get humans to and from low Earth orbit. These companies, of course, need to meet contractual obligations in providing a safe means of transporting astronauts to the International Space Station (ISS), but also need to do so in a manner that leads to the venture resulting in a profit at the same time. Through MO’s involvement in the development of this spaceflight paradigm shift, there are ample lessons to be conveyed to future teams and programs working to develop similar missions.

Robert C Dempsey↗

Financial feasibility of water conservation in agriculture

Global water use for food production needs to be reduced to remain within planetary boundaries, yet the financial feasibility of crucial measures to reduce water use is poorly quantified. Here, we introduce a novel method to compare the costs of water conservation measures with the added value that reallocation of water savings might generate if used for expansion of irrigation. Based on detailed water accounting through the use of a high-resolution hydrology-crop model, we modify the traditional cost curve approach with an improved estimation of demand, increasing marginal cost per water conservation measure combination and add a correction to control for impacts on downstream water availability. We apply the method to three major river basins in the Indo-Gangetic plain (Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra), a major global food producing region but increasingly water stressed. Our analysis shows that at basin level only about 10% (Brahmaputra) to just over 20% (Indus and Ganges) of potential water savings would be realised; the equilibrium price for water is too low to make the majority of water conservation measures cost effective. The associated expansion of irrigated area is moderate, about 7% in the Indus basin, 5% in the Ganges and negligible in the Brahmaputra, but farmers' gross profit increases more substantially, by 11%. Increasing the volumetric cost of irrigation water influences supply and demand in a similar way and has little influence on water reallocation. Controlling for the impact on return flows is important and more than halves the amount of water available for reallocation.

Geography / Land Utilization↗

California & Oregon Ecological Forecasting: Detecting and Forecasting Fog Occurrence, Frequency, and Change to Support Coast Redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) Habitat Assessments

Fog and low clouds play an important role in providing moisture to coastal ecosystems. Coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens) forests are currently distributed along a narrow strip of coastline in California and Oregon and rely on the presence of marine fog for moisture availability during the dry season (June-October). Recent time series analyses presented an uncertain future of fog frequency; however, a decline in fog presence may have adverse effects on the coast redwood habitat. To support Save the Redwoods League, a non-profit organization dedicated to coast redwood forest management, the team analyzed hourly fog data from the Geospatial Operational Environmental Satellite 17 (GOES-17) Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) and daily cloud cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Terra satellite. To explore present day fog longevity, GOES-17 was utilized to map the number of fog hours per day for the 2019 and 2020 dry seasons. The MODIS cloud flag was used to map the presence or absence of daily fog, which was summarized to create a monthly fog frequency dataset and identify trends in fog presence between 2000-2020. Both datasets were used as inputs into the random forest machine learning algorithm to identify climatic drivers of fog presence and longevity over the landscape. The present-day models suggested that daily temperature difference is a driving force behind fog presence and longevity. Trends in fog presence from 2000-2020 indicated great interannual variability. Finally, fog presence was modeled under a 2080 climate projection to shed light on the future of fog presence under a projected warmer climate. Model results projected an overall decline in fog presence during the dry season in the 2080s. Decreased fog presence as a result of increased temperature difference under a warmer climate remains to be a topic of investigation as to the impact on future redwood habitat suitability.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗