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At least 829 records · Page 46

A Regional, Integrated Monitoring System for the Hydrology of the Pan-Arctic Land Mass

Work under this NASA contract developed a system for monitoring and historical analysis of the major components of the pan-Arctic terrestrial water cycle. It is known as Arctic-RIMS (Regional Integrated Hydrological Monitoring System for the Pan-Arctic Landmass). The system uses products from EOS-era satellites, numerical weather prediction models, station records and other data sets in conjunction with an atmosphere-land surface water budgeting scheme. The intent was to compile operational (at 1-2 month time lags) gridded fields of precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), P-ET, soil moisture, soil freeze/thaw state, active layer thickness, snow extent and its water equivalent, soil water storage, runoff and simulated discharge along with estimates of non-closure in the water budget. Using "baseline" water budgeting schemes in conjunction with atmospheric reanalyses and pre-EOS satellite data, water budget fields were conjunction with atmospheric reanalyses and pre-EOS satellite data, water budget fields were compiled to provide historical time series. The goals as outlined in the original proposal can be summarized as follows: 1) Use EOS data to compile hydrologic products for the pan-Arctic terrestrial regions including snowcover/snow water equivalent (SSM/A MODIS, AMSR) and near-surface freeze/thaw dynamics (Sea Winds on QuikSCAT and ADEOS I4 SSMI and AMSR). 2) Implement Arctic-RIMS to use EOS data streams, allied fields and hydrologic models to produce allied outputs that fully characterize pan-Arctic terrestrial and aerological water budgets. 3) Compile hydrologically-based historical products providing a long-term baseline of spatial and temporal variability in the water cycle.

Serreze, Mark↗

Transport of Highly Volatile Gases Related to Noble Gases and Tritium in the MSRE

This study aims to comprehend mass transfer in the closed-loop circulation of highly volatile gases, including noble gases and tritium. We explore the impact of steady-state xenon-135 and tritium on the MSRE and reveal their isotopic distributions using online noble gas stripping of fuel salts. The MSRE was engineered to extract fission product gases from fuel salts and efficiently eliminate inert gases with the help of helium bubbles within a circulating fuel pump. These reactors introduce significant theoretical challenges in estimating interfacial area and mass transfer coefficients, crucial for modeling mass transfer processes. An essential component of our analysis is the mass transfer coefficient. These coefficients are important for understanding how radionuclides move during various phase transitions within a nuclear reactor. Xenon-135 and tritium are found in both liquid and gas phases within the reactor system. In the liquid phase, they dissolve in molten salts, while in the gas phase, they manifest as bubbles. These elements have significant adverse effects on reactor operation due to their strong neutron absorption properties, influencing both safety and performance. The Mole code, which predicts the behavior of chemical species under steady-state conditions, facilitates multiphysics coupling with Griffin to update species distributions and address inherent MSR safety.

Lee, Kyoung↗

A molecular dynamics simulation study of thermal conductivity anisotropy in β-octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (β-HMX)

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were used to predict the thermal conductivity of β-octahydro-1,3,5,7-tetranitro-1,3,5,7-tetrazocine (β-HMX) along directions normal to the (011), (110), and (010) crystal planes. These directions were selected based on the measured morphological importance of the corresponding crystal surfaces. A reverse non-equilibrium MD approach was used wherein a constant heat flux is imposed along a prescribed direction and the resulting steady-state temperature gradient determined. The coefficient of thermal conductivity λ is the quotient of heat flux and temperature gradient (i.e. Fourier's law). Finite-size effects and sensitivity to imposed heat flux were investigated. The results reveal a modest dependence of the conductivity on crystal orientation, significant finite-size effects, and low sensitivity to imposed flux so long as the Fourier's law analysis is limited to the spatial interval in the simulation cell for which the temperature gradient is constant. Infinite-length thermal conductivities were estimated by linear regression of λ -1 (L) versus reciprocal cell length L -1 for each direction. The predicted values are systematically larger, but within a factor of two, than most published experimental determinations, the latter of which were obtained for pressed-powder or composite samples rather than oriented single crystals.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Automated theoretical chemical kinetics: Predicting the kinetics for the initial stages of pyrolysis

Large scale implementation of high level computational theoretical chemical kinetics offers the prospect for dramatically improving the fidelity of combustion chemical modeling. To facilitate such efforts, we have developed a suite of codes, collectively referred to as AutoMech, that allow for the automatic prediction of the kinetics for large sets of reactions via ab initio transition-state-theory based master-equation calculations. The primary input is simply the mechanism, a dictionary relating chemically identifiable species descriptors (e.g., SMILES or InChIs) to species labels in the mechanism, and a specification of the electronic structure and transition state theory models to be implemented. Here we illustrate the current utility of AutoMech through a study of the initial stages of pyrolysis for 3 sets of fuels: sequences of alkanes, alcohols, and aldehydes. For simplicity, the analysis focuses on abstractions from the fuel by H, CH 3 , and OH, and the decomposition of the resulting radicals. Altogether, there are a total of 166 input channels in these sets (more than 363 forward reactions when expanded to the full set of elementary reactions). The code successfully produces high quality rate estimates (with apparent uncertainties less than a factor of two in limited comparisons with experiment) for > 95% of these. For the radical decomposition reactions, the analysis includes predictions for the pressure dependence of the kinetics. This wide-ranging exploration illustrates (i) the effect of different levels of prediction on the expected accuracy, (ii) the branching between abstractions at different sites for different abstractors, (iii) the dependence of the rates on the chemical structure, and (iv) the variation in radical stabilities across chemical families. These results, as well as the demonstrated feasibility of the methodology, should find further utility in the development of accurate rate expressions for arbitrary fuels. (c) 2020 The Combustion Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Elliott, Sarah N.↗

NEXTorch: A Design and Bayesian Optimization Toolkit for Chemical Sciences and Engineering

Automation and optimization of chemical systems require well-informed decisions on what experiments to run to reduce time, materials, and/or computations. Data-driven active learning algorithms have emerged as valuable tools to solve such tasks. Bayesian optimization, a sequential global optimization approach, is a popular active-learning framework. Past studies have demonstrated its efficiency in solving chemistry and engineering problems. Here we introduce NEXTorch, a library in Python/PyTorch, to facilitate laboratory or computational design using Bayesian optimization. NEXTorch offers fast predictive modeling, flexible optimization loops, visualization capabilities, easy interfacing with legacy software, and multiple types of parameters and data type conversions. It provides GPU acceleration, parallelization, and state-of-the-art Bayesian optimization algorithms and supports both automated an d human-in-the-loop optimization. The comprehensive online documentation introduces Bayesian optimization theory and several examples from catalyst synthesis, reaction condition optimization, parameter estimation, and reactor geometry optimization. NEXTorch is open-source and available on GitHub

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Differentiable multiphase flow model for physics-informed machine learning in reservoir pressure management

Accurate subsurface reservoir pressure control is extremely challenging due to geological heterogeneity and multiphase fluid-flow dynamics. Predicting behavior in this setting relies on high-fidelity physics-based simulations that are computationally expensive. Yet, the uncertain, heterogeneous properties that control these flows make it necessary to perform many of these expensive simulations, which is often prohibitive. To address these challenges, we introduce a physics-informed machine learning workflow that couples a fully differentiable multiphase flow simulator, which is implemented in the DPFEHM framework with a convolutional neural network (CNN). The CNN learns to predict fluid extraction rates from heterogeneous permeability fields to enforce pressure limits at critical reservoir locations. By incorporating transient multiphase flow physics into the training process, our method enables more practical and accurate predictions for realistic injection-extraction scenarios compared to previous works. To speed up training, we pretrain the model on single-phase, steady-state simulations and then finetune it on full multiphase scenarios, which dramatically reduces the computational cost. We demonstrate that high-accuracy training can be achieved with fewer than three thousand full-physics multiphase flow simulations – compared to previous estimates requiring up to ten million. This drastic reduction in the number of simulations is achieved by leveraging transfer learning from much less expensive single phase simulations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Calculating the two-photon exchange contribution to K L → μ + μ − decay

We present a theoretical framework within which both the real and imaginary parts of the complex, two-photon exchange amplitude contributing to K L → μ + μ − decay can be calculated using lattice quantum chromodynamics. The real part of this two-photon amplitude is of approximately the same size as that coming from a second-order weak strangeness-changing neutral-current process. Thus a test of the standard model prediction for this second-order weak process depends on an accurate result of this two-photon amplitude. A limiting factor of our proposed method comes from low-energy three-particle π π γ states. The contribution from these states will be significantly distorted by the finite volume of our calculation—a distortion for which there is no available correction. However, a simple estimate of the contribution of these three-particle states suggests their contribution to be at most a few percent allowing their neglect in a lattice calculation with a 10% target accuracy. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

K in an Urban World: New Contexts for Hydraulic Conductivity

Abstract Hydraulic conductivity ( K ) is a key hydrologic parameter widely recognized to be difficult to estimate and constrain, with little consistent assessment in disturbed, urbanized soils. To estimate K , it is either measured, or simulated by pedotransfer functions, which relate K to easily measured soil properties. We measured K in urbanized soils by double‐ring infiltrometer ( K dring ), near‐saturated tension infiltrometry ( K minidisk ), and constant head borehole permeametry ( K borehole ), along with other soil properties across the major soil orders in 12 United States cities. We compared measured K with that predicted from the pedotransfer function, ROSETTA. We found that regardless of soil texture, K dring was consistently larger than K minidisk ; with the latter having slightly less sample variance. K borehole was dependent upon specific subsurface conditions, and contrary to common expectations, did not always decrease with depth. Based on either soil textural class, or percent textural separates (sand, silt clay), ROSETTA did not accurately predict measured K for surface nor subsurface soils. We go on to discuss how K varies in urban landscapes, the role of measurement methods and artifacts in the perception of this metric, and implications for hydrologic modeling. Overall, we aim to inspire consistency and coherence when addressing K ‐related challenges in sustainable urban water management.

Shuster, W. D.↗

Data from: "Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions"

This archive contains data files that were used to draw conclusions in “Moisture rivals temperature in limiting photosynthesis by trees establishing beyond their cold-edge range limit under ambient and warmed conditions”, by Moyes et al., 2015. All field research was completed in common garden plots set up as part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE) on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA.There are two main data file formats in this archive: comma-separated values (.csv), and Microsoft Excel (.xls and .xlsx). .xlsx files can be read using Microsoft Excel and Google Sheets, and .csv files can be read using any simple text editor program, such as TextEdit (Mac) and Notepad (Windows). This .pdf data user’s guide can be read using Adobe Acrobat Reader, or any other compatible software. Seedling photographs and their corresponding leaf area-processed images are available in .jpg/.JPG image format, and can be opened using Preview (Mac) and Photos (Windows). To provide additional spatial context, two types of geospatial files are also published in this data package: ESRI shapefiles (.shp) and .kml files. Shapefiles are compatible with any GIS software able to read the file type (such as QGIS or ESRI’s ArcGIS suite), and .kml files can be opened with Google Earth or Google Maps. Figures 3 and 4 in the publication contain data from Moyes et al. 2013. This publication is cited in the References section in this archive, and data files can be accessed via the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment project portal on ESS-DIVE. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Climate change is altering plant species distributions globally, and warming is expected to promote uphill shifts in mountain trees. However, at many cold-edge range limits, such as alpine treelines in the western United States, tree establishment may be colimited by low temperature and low moisture, making recruitment patterns with warming difficult to predict.- We measured response functions linking carbon (C) assimilation and temperature- and moisture-related microclimatic factors for limber pine (Pinus flexilis) seedlings growing in a heating × watering experiment within and above the alpine treeline. We then extrapolated these response functions using observed microclimate conditions to estimate the net effects of warming and associated soil drying on C assimilation across an entire growing season.- Moisture and temperature limitations were each estimated to reduce potential growing season C gain from a theoretical upper limit by 15–30% (c. 50% combined). Warming above current treeline conditions provided relatively little benefit to modeled net assimilation, whereas assimilation was sensitive to either wetter or drier conditions.- Summer precipitation may be at least as important as temperature in constraining C gain by establishing subalpine trees at and above current alpine treelines as seasonally dry subalpine and alpine ecosystems continue to warm.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Homogeneous and heterogeneous condensation of nitrogen in transonic flow

Onset of both homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation for nitrogen gas has been measured in the Langley 0.3m Transonic Cryogenic Tunnel. Homogeneous nucleation data have been taken using a DFVLR CAST-10 airfoil and are used to evaluate classical liquid droplet theory and several proposed corrections to it. A correction for differences in translational energy states between the droplet and the bulk liquid due to either Reiss (1977) or Kikuchi (1977) achieves good agreement between the predicted onset of nucleation and the data. Good agreement is also found using a Tolman constant of 0.25 x 10 to the -10th m. Onset of heterogeneous nucleation on pre-existing seed particles in the flow has also been studied, and preliminary estimates of seed size and number are 0.25 x 10 to the -6th m and 3.0 x 10 to the 12th per kilogram of the gas. It is shown that this preexisting seed population is insufficient to influence the observed onset of homogeneous nucleation.

Hall, R. M.↗

Observations of Magnetars

Magnetars (Soft Gamma Repeaters and Anomalous X-ray Pulsars) are a subclass of neutron stars characterized by their recurrent X-ray bursts. While in an active (bursting) state, they are emitting hundreds of predominantly soft (kT=30 keV), short (0.1 - 100ms long) events. Active states last anywhere between days and years. Their quiescent source X-ray light curves exhibit pulsations in the narrow range of 5-1 1 s; estimates of these rotational period rate changes (spin-down) indicate that their magnetic fields are extremely high, of the order of 10(exp 14)-10(exp 15) G. Such high B-field objects, dubbed "magnetars", had been predicted to exist in 1992, but the first concrete observational evidence were obtained in 1998 for two of these sources. I will discuss here the history of magnetars, and their spectral, timing and flux characteristics both in the persistent and their burst emission.

Kouveliotou, C.↗

Measuring Moisture Levels in Graphite Epoxy Composite Sandwich Structures

Graphite epoxy composite (GEC) materials are used in the construction of rocket fairings, nose cones, interstage adapters, and heat shields due to their high strength and light weight. However, they absorb moisture depending on the environmental conditions they are exposed to prior to launch. Too much moisture absorption can become a problem when temperature and pressure changes experienced during launch cause the water to vaporize. The rapid state change of the water can result in structural failure of the material. In addition, heat and moisture combine to weaken GEC structures. Diffusion models that predict the total accumulated moisture content based on the environmental conditions are one accepted method of determining if the material strength has been reduced to an unacceptable level. However, there currently doesn t exist any field measurement technique to estimate the actual moisture content of a composite structure. A multi-layer diffusion model was constructed with Mathematica to predict moisture absorption and desorption from the GEC sandwich structure. This model is used in conjunction with relative humidity/temperature sensors both on the inside and outside of the material to determine the moisture levels in the structure. Because the core materials have much higher diffusivity than the face sheets, a single relative humidity measurement will accurately reflect the moisture levels in the core. When combined with an external relative humidity measurement, the model can be used to determine the moisture levels in the face sheets. Since diffusion is temperaturedependent, the temperature measurements are used to determine the diffusivity of the face sheets for the model computations.

Nurge, Mark↗

Characterization of Urban Air Mobility Vehicle Operational Noise and Community Noise Impact

This presentation focuses on the process for predicting urban air mobility (UAM) vehicle noise at the source and how that can be used to estimate the impact on the community. Following conceptual design, in which the vehicle is appropriately sized for its intended mission, a comprehensive analysis must be performed for a range of operating conditions spanning the flight envelope to determine the corresponding configurations of the vehicle, that is, the trimmed states. Many UAM vehicles have redundant controls, so the trimmed state for any particular operating condition may not be unique, with some states producing more noise than others. For each trimmed state, the noise produced by each source, for example, steady and unsteady rotor noise, inclusive of propulsion airframe aeroacoustic effects, may be computed and so-called source noise (hemi)spheres generated. Land use planning tools, including those using simulation and integrated modeling approaches, use these (or derived) data to generate noise exposure maps on the ground. Alternatively, these data may serve as input to auralization, turning the numerical data into an audible sound that can subsequently be used as part of a perception-influenced acoustic design process that takes into account human response.

urban air mobiliy↗

An Efficient Filter for Measurements Corrupted with Cauchy Noise

This paper present a new sequential filter for state estimation using measurements corrupted with Cauchy noise. The new filter retains the familiar structure of the Kalman filter and is computationally efficient. In addition, it does not exhibit computational complexity which grows or varies in time like existing methods. These results are based upon a nearly 50 year old result by Masreliez in which the conditional mean estimator is approximated via linearization of the measurement predictive density. This work derives the new filter, provides discussion regarding practical implementation, and present Monte Carlo analyses to validate and assess the new filter's performance.

James S McCabe↗

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗

Correlated Trajectory Uncertainty for Adaptive Sequential Decision Making

One of the great challenges with decision making tasks on real world systems is the fact that data is sparse and acquiring additional data is expensive. In these cases, it is often crucial to make a model of the environment to assist in making decisions. At the same time, limited data means that learned models are erroneous, making it just as important to equip the model with good predictive uncertainties. In the context of learning sequential decision making policies, these uncertainties can prove useful for informing which data to collect for the greatest improvement in policy performance \citep{mehta2021experimental, mehta2022exploration} or informing the policy about unsure regions of state and action space to avoid during test time \citep{yu2020mopo}. Additionally, assuming that realistic samples of the environment can be drawn, an adaptable policy can be trained that attempts to make optimal decisions for any given possible instance of the environment \citep{ghosh2022offline, chen2021offline}. In this work, we examine the so-called ``probabilistic neural network'' (PNN) model that is ubiquitous in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) works. We argue that while PNN models may have good marginal uncertainties, they form a distribution of non-smooth transition functions. Not only are these samples unrealistic and may hamper adaptability, but we also assert that this leads to poor uncertainty estimates when predicting multiple step trajectory estimates. To address this issue, we propose a simple sampling method that can be implemented on top of pre-existing models.We evaluate our sampling technique on a number of environments, including a realistic nuclear fusion task, and find that, not only do smooth transition function samples produce more calibrated uncertainties, but they also lead to better downstream performance for an adaptive policy.

Offline Reinforcement Learning↗

Neural message-passing for objective-based uncertainty quantification and optimal experimental design

Various real-world scientific applications involve the mathematical modeling of complex uncertain systems with numerous unknown parameters. Accurate parameter estimation is often practically infeasible in such systems, as the available training data may be insufficient and the cost of acquiring additional data may be high. In such cases, based on a Bayesian paradigm, we can design robust operators retaining the best overall performance across all possible models and design optimal experiments that can effectively reduce uncertainty to enhance the performance of such operators maximally. While objective-based uncertainty quantification (objective-UQ) based on MOCU (mean objective cost of uncertainty) provides an effective means for quantifying uncertainty in complex systems, the high computational cost of estimating MOCU has been a challenge in applying it to real-world scientific/engineering problems. In this work, we propose a novel scheme to reduce the computational cost for objective-UQ via MOCU based on a data-driven approach. We adopt a neural message-passing model for surrogate modeling, incorporating a novel axiomatic constraint loss that penalizes an increase in the estimated system uncertainty. As an illustrative example, we consider the optimal experimental design (OED) problem for uncertain Kuramoto models, where the goal is to predict the experiments that can most effectively enhance robust synchronization performance through uncertainty reduction. We show that our proposed approach can accelerate MOCU-based OED by four to five orders of magnitude, without any visible performance loss compared to the state-of-the-art. The proposed approach applies to general OED tasks, beyond the Kuramoto model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Does Bayesian model averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy problems as tests

We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT) description of data. We employ Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to combine results from different order polynomials (EFT orders). Our study considers two 'toy problems' where the underlying function used to generate data sets is known. We use Bayesian parameter estimation to extract the polynomial coefficients that describe these data at low x. A 'naturalness' prior is imposed on the coefficients, so that they are $\mathcal{O}(1)$. We BMA different polynomial degrees by weighting each according to its Bayesian evidence and compare the predictive performance of this BMA with that of the individual polynomials. In conclusion, the credibility intervals on the BMA forecast have the stated coverage properties more consistently than does the highest evidence polynomial, though BMA does not necessarily outperform every polynomial.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗