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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Measuring stomatal and guard cell metrics for plant physiology and growth using StoManager1

Abstract Automated guard cell detection and measurement are vital for understanding plant physiological performance and ecological functioning in global water and carbon cycles. Most current methods for measuring guard cells and stomata are laborious, time-consuming, prone to bias, and limited in scale. We developed StoManager1, a high-throughput tool utilizing geometrical, mathematical algorithms, and convolutional neural networks to automatically detect, count, and measure over 30 guard cell and stomatal metrics, including guard cell and stomatal area, length, width, stomatal aperture area/guard cell area, orientation, stomatal evenness, divergence, and aggregation index. Combined with leaf functional traits, some of these StoManager1-measured guard cell and stomatal metrics explained 90% and 82% of tree biomass and intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) variances in hardwoods, making them substantial factors in leaf physiology and tree growth. StoManager1 demonstrated exceptional precision and recall (mAP@0.5 over 0.96), effectively capturing diverse stomatal properties across over 100 species. StoManager1 facilitates the automation of measuring leaf stomatal and guard cells, enabling broader exploration of stomatal control in plant growth and adaptation to environmental stress and climate change. This has implications for global gross primary productivity (GPP) modeling and estimation, as integrating stomatal metrics can enhance predictions of plant growth and resource usage worldwide. Easily accessible open-source code and standalone Windows executable applications are available on a GitHub repository (https://github.com/JiaxinWang123/StoManager1) and Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7686022).

Wang, Jiaxin (ORCID:0000000348085085)↗
DOE OSTI2021

The Atacama Cosmology Telescope: Detection of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect with SDSS DR15 galaxies

We present a 5.4$\sigma$ detection of the pairwise kinematic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) effect using Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT) and $\it{Planck}$ CMB observations in combination with Luminous Red Galaxy samples from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) DR15 catalog. Results are obtained using three ACT CMB maps: co-added 150 GHz and 98 GHz maps, combining observations from 2008-2018 (ACT DR5), which overlap with SDSS DR15 over 3,700 sq. deg., and a component-separated map using night-time only observations from 2014-2015 (ACT DR4), overlapping with SDSS DR15 over 2,089 sq. deg. Comparisons of the results from these three maps provide consistency checks in relation to potential frequency-dependent foreground contamination. A total of 343,647 galaxies are used as tracers to identify and locate galaxy groups and clusters from which the kSZ signal is extracted using aperture photometry. We consider the impact of various aperture photometry assumptions and covariance estimation methods on the signal extraction. Theoretical predictions of the pairwise velocities are used to obtain best-fit, mass-averaged, optical depth estimates for each of five luminosity-selected tracer samples. A comparison of the kSZ-derived optical depth measurements obtained here to those derived from the thermal SZ effect for the same sample is presented in a companion paper.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Z 3 Parafermion in the Double Charge Kondo Model

Quantum impurity models with frustrated Kondo interactions can support quantum critical points with fractionalized excitations. Recent experiments [arXiv:2108.12691] on a circuit containing two coupled metal-semiconductor islands exhibit transport signatures of such a critical point. Here we show using bosonization that the double charge-Kondo model describing the device can be mapped in the Toulouse limit to a sine-Gordon model. Its Bethe-ansatz solution shows that a Z 3 parafermion emerges at the critical point, characterized by a fractional $\frac{1}{2}$ln(3) residual entropy, and scattering fractional charges e/3. Finally, we also present full numerical renormalization group calculations for the model and show that the predicted behavior of conductance is consistent with experimental results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2021

Combined Structural Analysis of Core and Image Log of TGH 76-31 South East of Mt Baker, Washington State

Despite active volcanism, few geothermal energy resources have been developed in the Cascades Range. Temperature Gradient Hole 76-31 was drilled to ~440 m measured depth to probe for zones where fractures provide fluid conduits that transport deep volcanic heat to shallow depths that could support baseload, carbon neutral electrical generation. These zones were predicted by a Play Fairway assessment (PFA) of resource potential along a zone 11 km west-southwest of the summit of Mount Baker Volcano. Rock core, temperature logs, and an acoustic image log were obtained. By comparison to outcrops, the core has been initially interpreted as the Chilliwack group comprised of partially metamorphosed basaltic to andesitic volcanics. Core mapping reveals complex, steeply dipping networks of fractures and brecciation along slickensided strike slip faults; clay alteration is common in many of these structures. The majority of fractures are thoroughly healed by layers of chlorite and calcite; preservation of pyrite indicates anoxic conditions. The majority of fracture porosity resides in very dense fractures a few centimeters or less in length. The image log provides good insights into attitude of fractures that fully transect the core, but generally underestimates fracture density. The combination of complex, non-planar fracture zones containing many short fractures and healing promote misinterpretation of natural fracture attitude and density in the image log. The healing and anoxic minerals are consistent with the conductive temperature gradient measured in the well below a shallow isothermal zone, although, several fractures are open or only partially healed and resulted in fluid entries into the well. Here, the equilibrated measured temperature gradient of 64ºC/km and calculated heat flow of 145 mW/m2 is more than twice the regional average, indicating local influence of the Mt Baker magmatic system at the Little Park Creek TGH site.

Cascades↗
DOE OSTI2025

Maps of growing season gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange for Council Road Mile Marker 71, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, [2017-2023]

This data archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025a). Murphy et al. (2025a) evaluated whether incorporating observed Arctic vegetation heterogeneity into ELM, the land model of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), improved simulations of tundra carbon cycling. The associated model archive can be found at Murphy et al. (2025b). The study focused on the spatial patterns and net landscape-level growing season productivity and carbon uptake. As part of this evaluation, observationally derived maps of average growing season (June–August) net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary production (GPP) were developed for the same domain. These maps, which form the dataset described here, integrate eddy covariance flux tower, remote sensing, and vegetation community data to provide spatially explicit benchmarks for model evaluation. The maps provide spatially explicit estimates of average growing season NEE and GPP across 13 tundra vegetation communities within the study domain. By combining flux tower observations with Airborne Visible-Infrared Imaging Spectrometer-Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG) hyperspectral imagery and drone-based normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), these maps capture the heterogeneity of carbon fluxes associated with different Arctic vegetation types. While they represent average seasonal conditions rather than interannual variability, the maps provide a unique dataset for evaluating model performance, comparing vegetation community contributions to landscape-scale carbon cycling, and supporting regional analyses of Arctic carbon dynamics. This data archive contains 5 m resolution maps of vegetation communities, vegetation community average growing season GPP, and vegetation community average growing season NEE (three *.tif files), a User’s Guide (*pdf file), and Table 1 of the User’s Guide displaying vegetation community coverage and average growing season NEE and GPP values (*.csv file).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Rules of Efflux Inhibition and Avoidance in Pseudomonas aeruginosa

Antibiotic-resistant bacteria rapidly spread in clinical and natural environments and challenge our modern lifestyle. A major component of defense against antibiotics in Gram-negative bacteria is a drug permeation barrier created by active efflux across the outer membrane. We identified molecular determinants defining the propensity of small peptidomimetic molecules to avoid and inhibit efflux pumps in Pseudomonas aeruginosa, a human pathogen notorious for its antibiotic resistance. Combining experimental and computational protocols, we mapped the fate of the compounds from structure-activity relationships through their dynamic behavior in solution, permeation across both the inner and outer membranes, and interaction with MexB, the major efflux transporter of P. aeruginosa. We identified predictors of efflux avoidance and inhibition and demonstrated their power by using a library of traditional antibiotics and compound series and by generating new inhibitors of MexB. The identified predictors will enable the discovery and optimization of antibacterial agents suitable for treatment of P. aeruginosa infections.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian learning of orthogonal embeddings for multi-fidelity Gaussian Processes

Uncertainty propagation in complex engineering systems often poses significant computational challenges related to modeling and quantifying probability distributions of model outputs, as those emerge as the result of various sources of uncertainty that are inherent in the system under investigation. Gaussian Processes regression (GPs) is a robust meta-modeling technique that allows for fast model prediction and exploration of response surfaces. Multi-fidelity variations of GPs further leverage information from cheap and low fidelity model simulations in order to improve their predictive performance on the high fidelity model. In order to cope with the high volume of data required to train GPs in high dimensional design spaces, a common practice is to introduce latent design variables that are typically projections of the original input space to a lower dimensional subspace, and therefore substitute the problem of learning the initial high dimensional mapping, with that of training a GP on a low dimensional space. Here in this paper, we present a Bayesian approach to identify optimal transformations that map the input points to low dimensional latent variables. The \projection" mapping consists of an orthonormal matrix that is considered a priori unknown and needs to be inferred jointly with the GP parameters, conditioned on the available training data. The proposed Bayesian inference scheme relies on a two-step iterative algorithm that samples from the marginal posteriors of the GP parameters and the projection matrix respectively, both using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In order to take into account the orthogonality constraints imposed on the orthonormal projection matrix, a Geodesic Monte Carlo sampling algorithm is employed, that is suitable for exploiting probability measures on manifolds. We extend the proposed framework to multi-fidelity models using GPs including the scenarios of training multiple outputs together. We validate our framework on three synthetic problems with a known lower-dimensional subspace. The benefits of our proposed framework, are illustrated on the computationally challenging aerodynamic optimization of a last-stage blade for an industrial gas turbine, where we study the effect of an 85-dimensional shape parameterization of a three-dimensional airfoil on two output quantities of interest, specifically on the aerodynamic efficiency and the degree of reaction

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine learning-based discovery of molecular descriptors that control polymer gas permeation

While machine learning has found increasing use in predicting the properties of polymeric materials with only a knowledge of chain architecture, determining the molecular factors underpinning properties (“interpretable AI”) has remained less well explored. We show that encoding chain chemistry in commonly employed formats, e.g., binary-valued fingerprints, leads to uniqueness issues during the hashing process to save storage space. This is because the hashing algorithm can map several chemical moieties into the same bit. These issues carry over into the ML algorithms, especially for “inverse” design and interpretable AI, and cannot be avoided by changing the length of the fingerprint. Using MACCS key featurizations of monomer repeats resolves some of these issues, and we show that a few substructures consistently appear in top features for maximizing permeability across several gases and ML models. These are carbon–carbon double bonds (as in polyacetylenes) especially when they are associated with methyl groups (found in branching architectures). Here these results, derived from the limited data set of ~ 500 polymers with experimental gas permeation data, are in agreement with physical insight and thus provide a robust foundation which could further enable study of these material classes through detailed experiments and simulations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Revealing the hidden structure of disordered materials by parameterizing their local structural manifold

Abstract Durable interest in developing a framework for the detailed structure of glassy materials has produced numerous structural descriptors that trade off between general applicability and interpretability. However, none approach the combination of simplicity and wide-ranging predictive power of the lattice-grain-defect framework for crystalline materials. Working from the hypothesis that the local atomic environments of a glassy material are constrained by enthalpy minimization to a low-dimensional manifold in atomic coordinate space, we develop a generalized distance function, the Gaussian Integral Inner Product (GIIP) distance, in connection with agglomerative clustering and diffusion maps, to parameterize that manifold. Applying this approach to a two-dimensional model crystal and a three-dimensional binary model metallic glass results in parameters interpretable as coordination number, composition, volumetric strain, and local symmetry. In particular, we show that a more slowly quenched glass has a higher degree of local tetrahedral symmetry at the expense of cyclic symmetry. While these descriptors require post-hoc interpretation, they minimize bias rooted in crystalline materials science and illuminate a range of structural trends that might otherwise be missed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Full Counting Statistics of Charge in Chaotic Many-Body Quantum Systems

We investigate the full counting statistics of charge transport in U(1)-symmetric random unitary circuits. We consider an initial mixed state prepared with a chemical potential imbalance between the left and right halves of the system and study the fluctuations of the charge transferred across the central bond in typical circuits. Using an effective replica statistical mechanics model and a mapping onto an emergent classical stochastic process valid at large on-site Hilbert space dimension, we show that charge transfer fluctuations approach those of the symmetric exclusion process at long times, with subleading t –1/2 quantum corrections. Here, we discuss our results in the context of fluctuating hydrodynamics and macroscopic fluctuation theory of classical nonequilibrium systems and check our predictions against direct matrix-product state calculations.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

Exploring the QCD phase diagram through correlations and fluctuations

The exploration of the Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) phase diagram is a central goal of relativistic heavy-ion collision experiments. This review focuses on the role of fluctuations and correlations as sensitive probes of the phase structure. We discuss theoretical advancements and experimental methodologies employed to map the QCD phase diagram, highlighting constraints derived from both lattice QCD calculations and existing experimental data. Key observables such as cumulants and factorial cumulants of conserved charges (e.g., net-proton, net-charge) are explored as promising signatures of phase transitions and the QCD critical point. We discuss how these quantities are measured experimentally and compared with theoretical predictions, addressing challenges and best practices for meaningful comparisons. Special attention is given to predictions and current experimental results at high baryon density, including recent findings from the STAR collaboration at RHIC. Finally, we identify open issues and future directions for fluctuation and correlation studies at lower collision energies, relevant for future measurements, for example by the CBM experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maps of land surface phenology derived from PlanetScope data, 2018-2022, Teller, Kougarok, and Council, Seward Peninsula

Remote sensing maps of land surface phenology derived from PlanetScope (Planet Team, 2017) normalized differential greenness index (NDGI; Yang et al., 2019) time series data. These maps include four phenological timing metric - start of spring (SOS), end of spring (EOS), start of fall (SOF), and end of fall (EOF), corresponding NDGI value at the four phenological timings, and annual maximum and minimum NDGI. This package includes maps for Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiment Arctic (NGEE Arctic)’s Teller Mile Marker (MM) 27, Kougarok MM64, and Council MM 71 watersheds. Maps of 5 years from 2018 to 2022 are included in this dataset. The map data and metadata are provided as image (ENVI) and text (*.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional supporting map quicklooks are provided as GIS *.kml files. These datasets are provided in support of Yang et al., (In revision) “Fine-scale Landscape Characteristics, Vegetation Composition, and Snowmelt Timing Control Phenological Heterogeneity across Arctic Tundra Landscapes”The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generative AI models for learning flow maps of stochastic dynamical systems in bounded domains

Simulating stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in bounded domains, presents significant computational challenges due to particle exit phenomena, which requires accurate modeling of interior stochastic dynamics and boundary interactions. Despite the success of machine learning-based methods in learning SDEs, existing learning methods are not applicable to SDEs in bounded domains because they cannot accurately capture the particle exit dynamics. We present a unified hybrid data-driven approach that combines a conditional diffusion model with an exit prediction neural network to capture both interior stochastic dynamics and boundary exit phenomena. Our ML model consists of two major components: a neural network that learns exit probabilities using binary cross-entropy loss with rigorous convergence guarantees, and a training-free diffusion model that generates state transitions for non-exiting particles using closed-form score functions. The two components are integrated through a probabilistic sampling algorithm that determines particle exit at each time step and generates appropriate state transitions. Here, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated via three test cases: a one-dimensional simplified problem for theoretical verification, a two-dimensional advection-diffusion problem in a bounded domain, and a three-dimensional problem of interest to magnetically confined fusion plasmas.

Bounded domains↗
DOE OSTI2026

Effect of Magnetic Islands on Neoclassical Heat Diffusivity in a Global Tokamak Simulation

Resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs) alter magnetic field topology via island formation and can modify core transport in toroidal fusion devices. Using the global gyrokinetic particle‐in‐cell code XGC‐S, originally developed for stellarator geometries, we quantify how island topology affects neoclassical heat transport in a circular tokamak with ($m,n$) = (5,2) RMP‐induced islands. Electron radial heat diffusivity exhibits a two‐peak structure with a dominant enhancement near the O/X‐point region and a secondary peak at the outer island boundary, whereas ion transport remains close to the neoclassical prediction. The observed electron diffusivity is strongly enhanced over the neoclassical baseline but remains well below the Rechester–Rosenbluth estimate, consistent with the non‐ergodic character of the island topology. The density dependence of diffusivity is weaker inside the islands than outside, indicating the presence of topology‐driven transport channels that do not depend strongly on collisionality. Two‐dimensional heat flux maps reveal an up–down antisymmetric structure at the island separatrices consistent with magnetic gradient and curvature drift effects, in contrast to the symmetric temperature flattening inside the islands. These results identify topology‐dependent avenues for electron heat transport in RMP‐perturbed cores and suggest regimes in which island geometry, rather than collisions alone, governs radial transport.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

First principles reactive simulation for equation of state prediction

The high cost of density functional theory (DFT) has hitherto limited the ab initio prediction of the equation of state (EOS). In this article, we employ a combination of large scale computing, advanced simulation techniques, and smart data science strategies to provide an unprecedented ab initio performance analysis of the high explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN). Comparison to both experiment and thermochemical predictions reveals important quantitative limitations of DFT for EOS prediction and thus the assessment of high explosives. In particular, we find that DFT predicts the energy of PETN detonation products to be systematically too high relative to the unreacted neat crystalline material, resulting in an underprediction of the detonation velocity, pressure, and temperature at the Chapman–Jouguet state. The energetic bias can be partially accounted for by high-level electronic structure calculations of the product molecules. Furthermore we demonstrate a modeling strategy for mapping chemical composition across a wide parameter space with limited numerical data, the results of which suggest additional molecular species to consider in thermochemical modeling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Maps of plant functional type (PFT), PFT fractional cover, and uncertainty derived from AVIRIS-NG data, 2019, Seward Peninsula

Remote sensing maps of plant functional type (PFT), PFT fractional cover (fCover), and fCover uncertainty maps derived from NASA’s Airborne Visible / Infrared Imaging Spectrometer – Next Generation (AVIRIS-NG). The AVIRIS-NG imaging spectroscopy data (380 ~ 2510 nm) was collected as a part of the collaboration between NASA’s Arctic-Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE; Miller et al., 2019) and DOE’s Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment in the Arctic (NGEE-Arctic). This package includes maps for flights over Teller, Kougarok, and Council watersheds created using eight AVIRIS-NG imagery collected in July, 2019. The map data and metadata are provided as image (ENVI, *.png) and text (*.txt, *hdr) formats. Additional supporting map quicklooks are provided as GIS *.kml files. Detailed description of the methods for each map are provided in Yang et al., (2023). These datasets are provided in support of Yang et al., (In revision) “Topography and Functional Traits Control the Distribution of Key Shrub Plant Functional Types in Low-Arctic Tundra”.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Behavioral simulations and experimental evaluations of stress induced spatial nonuniformity of dynamic bulk modulus in additive friction stir deposited AA 6061

Additive friction stir deposition (AFSD) is a rapidly developing solid-state additive manufacturing (AM) technology that enables the fabrication of customized products on a relatively large scale. The unique forge-liked process offers high quality products with refined equiaxed microstructure and exceptional mechanical performance. However, in AFSD, the spatially distributed mechanical properties within a deposited layer have not been established so far, due to the lack of a suitable large-scale mapping method. In the present work, an ultrasonic dynamic-elasticity mapping method was employed to map the distribution of physical properties in a AFSD 6061 Al. Strong spatial asymmetries in elastographies were mainly due to the residual stresses. The origin of the asymmetries was investigated through thermo-mechanical simulations of the AFSD process. It was observed that majority of the asymmetries were associated with the mechanical residual stresses instead of the symmetric thermal residual stresses during linear deposition of the AFSD process. However, the thermal residual stresses can be manipulated to become asymmetric with a 90° turn in the linear deposition path, due to the difference between the levels of cooling along the edges of the inner and outer corners. Hence, the mechanical and thermo-mechanical residual stresses can be additive or subtractive depending on the direction of the turns. Here, such numerically predicted behaviors were also experimentally observed on the AFSD fabricated samples by ultrasonic elastography. Furthermore, additional preliminary studies on multi-layer AFSD fabrications show the asymmetric mechanical stresses generated during the deposition process on different layers generate constructive or destructive interference which results to spatially variable dynamic bulk modulus depending on the deposition orientations of layers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A geospatial model for the analysis of time-dependent land subsidence induced by reservoir depletion

Land subsidence due to fluid depletion is an outcome of physical processes operating across a wide range of time and length scales. Although geomechanical models are crucial to simulate reservoir compaction and predict its long-term fate, their use across large regions often bears prohibitive computational costs. To overcome this obstacle, this paper proposes a simplified modelling framework consisting of (i) a near-field numerical solver simulating the coupling between fluid flow and rock deformation with reference to a simplified one-dimensional geometry and (ii) a far-field geospatial algorithm mapping ground settlements across a region through the superposition of poroelastic computations at multiple wells. The model computes the delay between depletion history and reservoir compaction in proximity of a producing well by assuming basal depletion of a fluid-saturated deformable disk, while the Geertsma solution of nucleus of strain is used to extrapolate the impact of such time-varying reservoir compaction around the well. This approach has been used to back-analyze the spatio-temporal progression of subsidence at the Groningen gas field. The results are compared against measurements collected over 50 year of production at 25 benchmark locations scattered over an area of 900 km 2 . It is shown that coupled simulations based on average values of rock compressibility and permeability lead to nonlinear trends of subsidence evolution in good agreement with field measurements, while uncoupled analyses overpredict settlements by more than 70%. Lastly, synthetic forecasts based on different rates of depletion were provided. The results suggest that slower depletion rates lead to lower subsidence at a given time, and that residual subsidence may continue to develop for several decades after interruption of production activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗