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DOE OSTI2022

Predicting industrial building energy consumption with statistical and machine-learning models informed by physical system parameters

The industrial sector consumes about one-third of global energy, making them a frequent target for energy use reduction. Variation in energy usage is observed with weather conditions, as space conditioning needs to change seasonally, and with production, energy-using equipment is directly tied to production rate. Previous models were based on engineering analyses of equipment and relied on site-specific details. Others consisted of single-variable regressors that did not capture all contributions to energy consumption. Further, new modeling techniques could be applied to rectify these weaknesses. Applying data from 45 different manufacturing plants obtained from industrial energy audits, a supervised machine-learning model is developed to create a general predictor for industrial building energy consumption. The model uses features of air enthalpy, solar radiation, and wind speed to predict weather-dependency; motor, steam, and compressed air system parameters to capture support equipment contributions; and operating schedule, production rate, number of employees, and floor area to determine production-dependency. Results showed that a model that used a linear regressor over a transformed feature space could outperform a support vector machine and utilize features more representative of physical systems. Using informed parameters to build a reliable predictor will more accurately characterize a manufacturing facility's energy savings opportunities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Conductivity Spectroscopy for Investigation and Discovery of Photovoltaic Materials

Conductivity spectroscopy is an extremely powerful set of methods for probing the properties of optoelectronic materials, especially photovoltaics, where photoconductivity is one of the best spectroscopic proxies for performance. Despite this power, they are substantially less commonly used than time-resolved photoluminescence (for instance) because they tend to be more expensive to implement (THz) and/or require specialized knowledge (GHz) to construct instruments, which are not widely available. The goal of this review is to illustrate the utility of these experiments in the discovery and study of photovoltaic absorber materials and simultaneously make them more accessible to the community by providing a central tutorial resource. We provide a comprehensive review of how conductivity spectroscopy has developed over the past decade and been applied in the discovery and development of photovoltaic materials, with a primary focus on emerging solution-processable technologies. Along the way we aim to demystify conductivity spectroscopy with focused tutorial sections that explain the physical models used to fit the data and illustrate how to think about “high-frequency conductivity”.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Challenges of Modeling Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) as Blackstart Resources and for Volt-VAR Optimality

Modeling, testing and instituting Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) as Blackstart Resoucrces presents several challenges due to the fundamental differences between traditional black start resources (e.g., large generators) versus DERs like solar PV systems with battery storage. This paper addresses some of these key challenges. These include intermittency of coordinating DERs to provide continuous power during a black start event, especially during extended periods of cloud cover or when battery energy storage is depleted. This paper additionally addresses the collapsing voltage and stability control challenges specific to maintaining bulk power system stability during black start synchronization These physical and engineering limitations require careful engineering design, modeling and engineering to ensure that DERs can support critical loads and substations during black start events. A variety of additional challenges also exist. Additionally, there are challenges associated with feeder location and low voltage secondary system impacts on DER functions and settings. We compare typical functions and settings for DERs for power factor control and correction. We also demonstrate how voltag control via Volta-VAR power factor correction can be done

Mukherjee, Srijib↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of an Open-source Alloy Selection and Lifetime Assessment Tool for Structural Components in CSP

Lack of sufficient data on high temperature mechanical and corrosion behavior of structural materials is a huge barrier in the technological maturity of current and future Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) technologies. Rapid development and selection of materials cannot be achieved by expensive and time-consuming acquisition of experimental data. The goal of the proposed work is development of an open-source alloy selection and lifetime prediction tool that will integrate validated physics-based models to describe influence of temperature, alloy composition, environment and component geometry (thickness) on mechanical and corrosion behavior of Ni and Fe-based alloys employed in molten salts/sCO 2 heat exchangers. This one-year project leveraged the extensive dataset on the creep\corrosion behavior of candidate materials generated at ORNL through past projects and input from current collaborations with industrial partners. Based on previous experience and the feedback provided by industry (Brayton Energy and Echogen), three candidate materials of interest, Ni-based alloys 740H, 282 and 625 and application-specific operating conditions (max. temperature of 730 °C and stress of 150 MPa) were identified for the heat exchanger. An extensive corrosion and creep dataset was assimilated for the relevant operating conditions and was supported by detailed characterization of about 100 metallographic cross-sections. The corrosion dataset consisted of scanning electron microscopy images (secondary electron and backscatter electron), measured concentration profiles of alloying elements using energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), widths of denuded zones (dissolution of strengthening phases) and depths of attack in molten KCl-MgCl 2 mixtures using image analyses. The creep dataset comprised of creep rupture data and creep strain curves (for 740H and 282). Coupled thermodynamic-kinetic microstructure-based models were employed to predict the stress-corrosion induced compositional and phase evolutions in the alloy during operation under the identified operating conditions. Reduced order models were developed from advanced physics-based models and were integrated in a user-friendly alloy selection tool. The corrosion model was able to predict the time to a critical Cr concentration at the oxide/alloy interface (chemical lifetime) within ±10% (1 standard deviation) of typical statistical variation in corrosion tests and EDS measurement errors (±0.5 wt%). The initial scope of the project was limited to predict creep rupture times (Larson-Miller parameter). Based on the input provided by industry, the mechanical lifetime of the heat exchanger is governed by accumulated creep strains (2%) rather than creep rupture. To be able to predict the times to specific creep strains, a more extensive creep model development was undertaken largely beyond the initial scope of the project. The continuum damage mechanics creep model was able to predict times to 2% creep strain, t 2% with an accuracy of ±500h. Ultimately, a screening protocol for SiC was generated to demonstrate the pathway for integration of one of the currently immature materials from a commercial adoption standpoint in the current material evaluation tool. The modeling tool developed here is accessible to the science community and stakeholders and lays the foundation for methods that will enable a rapid evaluation of optimum materials for CSP applications and reliable prediction of material degradation thereby considerably reducing operational costs, improving reliability and increasing overhaul intervals. However, the complete potential of such a tool to include a wider range of materials and test conditions can only be realized with a more concentrated combined experimental-characterization-computation effort.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Review of Onsite Temperature and Solar Forecasting Models to Enable Better Building Design and Operations

Advanced building controls and energy optimization for new constructions and retrofits rely on accurate weather data. Traditionally, most studies utilize airport weather information as the decision inputs. However, most buildings are in environments that are quite different than those at the airport miles away. Tree cover, adjacent buildings, and micro-climate effects caused by the larger surrounding area can all yield deviations in air temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, and wind that are large enough to influence design and operation decisions. In order to overcome this challenge, there are many prior studies on developing weather forecasting algorithms from micro-to meso-scales. Additionally, this paper reviews and complies knowledge on common weather data resources, data processing methodologies and forecasting techniques of weather information. Commonly used statistical, machine learning and physical-based models are discussed and presented as two major categories: deterministic forecasting and probabilistic forecasting. Finally, evaluation metrics for forecasting errors are listed and discussed.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1999

International Low-Earth-Orbit Spacecraft Materials Test Program Initiated for Better Prediction of Durability and Performance

Spacecraft in low Earth orbit (LEO) are subjected to many components of the environment, which can cause them to degrade much more rapidly than intended and greatly shorten their functional life. The atomic oxygen, ultraviolet radiation, and cross contamination present in LEO can affect sensitive surfaces such as thermal control paints, multilayer insulation, solar array surfaces, and optical surfaces. The LEO Spacecraft Materials Test (LEO-SMT) program is being conducted to assess the effects of simulated LEO exposure on current spacecraft materials to increase understanding of LEO degradation processes as well as to enable the prediction of in-space performance and durability. Using ground-based simulation facilities to test the durability of materials currently flying in LEO will allow researchers to compare the degradation evidenced in the ground-based facilities with that evidenced on orbit. This will allow refinement of ground laboratory test systems and the development of algorithms to predict the durability and performance of new materials in LEO from ground test results. Accurate predictions based on ground tests could reduce development costs and increase reliability. The wide variety of national and international materials being tested represent materials being functionally used on spacecraft in LEO. The more varied the types of materials tested, the greater the probability that researchers will develop and validate predictive models for spacecraft long-term performance and durability. Organizations that are currently participating in the program are ITT Research Institute (USA), Lockheed Martin (USA), MAP (France), SOREQ Nuclear Research Center (Israel), TNO Institute of Applied Physics (The Netherlands), and UBE Industries, Ltd. (Japan). These represent some of the major suppliers of thermal control and sensor materials currently flying in LEO. The participants provide materials that are exposed to selected levels of atomic oxygen, vacuum ultraviolet radiation, contamination, or synergistic combined environments at the NASA Lewis Research Center. Changes in characteristics that could affect mission performance or lifetime are then measured. These characteristics include changes in mass, solar absorptance, and thermal emittance. The durability of spacecraft materials from U.S. suppliers is then compared with those of materials from other participating countries. Lewis will develop and validate performance and durability prediction models using this ground data and available space data. NASA welcomes the opportunity to consider additional international participants in this program, which should greatly aid future spacecraft designers as they select materials for LEO missions.

Rutledge, Sharon K.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The impact of UVCS/SOHO observations on models of ion-cyclotron resonance heating of the solar corona

The compatibility between theoretical models and observations of the temperatures and anisotropic distributions of hydrogen and minor ions in the solar corona is examined. The ultraviolet coronagraph spectrometer (UVCS) instrument onboard SOHO measured hydrogen kinetic temperatures along lines of sight in coronal holes in excess of 3 x 10(exp 6) K and O(+5) ion kinetic temperatures of at least 2 x 10(exp 8) K. Various features of plasma heating by the dissipation of high-frequency ion-cyclotron resonance Alfven waves, which may be the most natural physical mechanism to produce certain plasma conditions, are examined. Preliminary quantitative models of the ion motion in polar coronal holes are presented, and it is shown that such models can be used to predict the spectrum of waves required to reproduce the observations. Indeed, the more ionic species that are observed spectroscopically, the greater the extent in frequency space the wave spectrum can be inferred.

Cranmer, S. R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Structure of the Magnetotail Current Sheet

An orbit tracing technique was used to generate current sheets for three magnetotail models. Groups of ions were followed to calculate the resulting cross-tail current. Several groups then were combined to produce a current sheet. The goal is a model in which the ions and associated electrons carry the electric current distribution needed to generate the magnetic field B in which ion orbits were traced. The region -20 R(sub E) less than x less than - 14 R(sub E) in geocentric solar magnetospheric coordinates was studied. Emphasis was placed on identifying the categories of ion orbits which contribute most to the cross-tail current and on gaining physical insight into the manner by which the ions carry the observed current distribution. Ions that were trapped near z = 0, ions that magnetically mirrored throughout the current sheet, and ions that mirrored near the Earth all were needed. The current sheet structure was determined primarily by ion magnetization currents. Electrons of the observed energies carried relatively little cross-tail current in these quiet time current sheets. Distribution functions were generated and integrated to evaluate fluid parameters. An earlier model in which B depended only on z produced a consistent current sheet, but it did not provide a realistic representation of the Earth's middle magnetotail. In the present study, B changed substantially in the x and z directions but only weakly in the y direction within our region of interest. Plasmas with three characteristic particle energies were used with each of the magnetic field models. A plasma was found for each model in which the density, average energy, cross-tail current, and bulk flow velocity agreed well with satellite observations.

Larson, Douglas J.↗

NASA NTRS2013

XIPE the X-Ray Imaging Polarimetry Explorer

X-ray polarimetry, sometimes alone, and sometimes coupled to spectral and temporal variability measurements and to imaging, allows a wealth of physical phenomena in astrophysics to be studied. X-ray polarimetry investigates the acceleration process, for example, including those typical of magnetic reconnection in solar flares, but also emission in the strong magnetic fields of neutron stars and white dwarfs. It detects scattering in asymmetric structures such as accretion disks and columns, and in the so-called molecular torus and ionization cones. In addition, it allows fundamental physics in regimes of gravity and of magnetic field intensity not accessible to experiments on the Earth to be probed. Finally, models that describe fundamental interactions (e.g. quantum gravity and the extension of the Standard Model) can be tested. We describe in this paper the X-ray Imaging Polarimetry Explorer (XIPE), proposed in June 2012 to the first ESA call for a small mission with a launch in 2017. The proposal was, unfortunately, not selected. To be compliant with this schedule, we designed the payload mostly with existing items. The XIPE proposal takes advantage of the completed phase A of POLARIX for an ASI small mission program that was cancelled, but is different in many aspects: the detectors, the presence of a solar flare polarimeter and photometer and the use of a light platform derived by a mass production for a cluster of satellites. XIPE is composed of two out of the three existing JET-X telescopes with two Gas Pixel Detectors (GPD) filled with a He-DME mixture at their focus. Two additional GPDs filled with a 3-bar Ar-DME mixture always face the Sun to detect polarization from solar flares. The Minimum Detectable Polarization of a 1 mCrab source reaches 14 in the 210 keV band in 105 s for pointed observations, and 0.6 for an X10 class solar flare in the 1535 keV energy band. The imaging capability is 24 arcsec Half Energy Width (HEW) in a Field of View of 14.7 arcmin 14.7 arcmin. The spectral resolution is 20 at 6 keV and the time resolution is 8 s. The imaging capabilities of the JET-X optics and of the GPD have been demonstrated by a recent calibration campaign at PANTER X-ray test facility of the Max-Planck-Institut fr extraterrestrische Physik (MPE, Germany). XIPE takes advantage of a low-earth equatorial orbit with Malindi as down-link station and of a Mission Operation Center (MOC) at INPE (Brazil). The data policy is organized with a Core Program that comprises three months of Science Verification Phase and 25 of net observing time in the following 2 years. A competitive Guest Observer program covers the remaining 75 of the net observing time.

Astronomy X-ray Polarimetry↗

NASA NTRS2017

Near Earth Asteroid Scout Solar Sail Engineering Development Unit Test Suite

The Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) Scout project is a 6U reconnaissance mission to investigate a near Earth asteroid utilizing an 86m(sub 2) solar sail as the primary propulsion system. This will be the largest solar sail NASA has launched to date. NEA Scout is currently manifested on the maiden voyage of the Space Launch System in 2018. In development of the solar sail subsystem, design challenges were identified and investigated for packaging within a 6U form factor and deployment in cis-lunar space. Analysis was able to capture understanding of thermal, stress, and dynamics of the stowed system as well as mature an integrated sail membrane model for deployed flight dynamics. Full scale system testing on the ground is the optimal way to demonstrate system robustness, repeatability, and overall performance on a compressed flight schedule. To physically test the system, the team developed a flight sized engineering development unit with design features as close to flight as possible. The test suite included ascent vent, random vibration, functional deployments, thermal vacuum, and full sail deployments. All of these tests contributed towards development of the final flight unit. This paper will address several of the design challenges and lessons learned from the NEA Scout solar sail subsystem engineering development unit. Testing on the component level all the way to the integrated subsystem level. From optical properties of the sail material to fold and spooling the single sail, the team has developed a robust deployment system for the solar sail. The team completed several deployments of the sail system in preparation for flight at half scale (4m) and full scale (6.8m): boom only, half scale sail deployment, and full scale sail deployment. This paper will also address expected and received test results from ascent vent, random vibration, and deployment tests.

Lockett, Tiffany Russell↗

NASA NTRS1980

A study of acoustic heating and forced convection in the solar corona

The S055 EUV spectra was used to perform emission measure and line intensity ratio analyses of loop plasma conditions in a study on the thermodynamics of magnetic loops in the solar corona. The evidence that loops contain plasma hotter than the background corona, and thus, require enhanced local dissipation of magnetic or mechanical energy is discussed. The S055 EUV raster pictures were used to study physical conditions in cool ultraviolet absorbing clouds in the solar corona, and optical data were used to derive constraints on the dimension, time scales and optical depths in dark opaque clouds not seen in H alpha and CaK as filaments or prominences. Theoretical modelling of propagation of magnetically guided acoustic shocks in the solar chromosphere finds it still unlikely that high frequency acoustic shocks could reach the solar corona. Dynamic modelling of spicules shows that such guided slow mode shocks can explain the acceleration of cool spicular material seen high in the corona.

Foukal, P. V.↗

NASA NTRS1983

DE 102 - A numerically integrated ephemeris of the moon and planets spanning forty-four centuries

It is pointed out that the 1960's were the turning point for the generation of lunar and planetary ephemerides. All previous measurements of the positions of solar system bodies were optical angular measurements. New technological improvements leading to immense changes in observational accuracy are related to developments concerning radar, Viking landers on Mars, and laser ranges to lunar corner cube retroreflectors. Suitable numerical integration techniques and more comprehensive physical models were developed to match the accuracy of the modern data types. The present investigation is concerned with the first integrated ephemeris, DE 102, which covers the entire span of the historical astronomical observations of usable accuracy which are known. The fit is made to modern data. The integration spans the time period from 1411 BC to 3002 AD.

Newhall, X. X.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Radiative forcing of stationary planetary waves

To elucidate the role of solar and long-wave transfers in maintaining stationary planetary waves, the potential vorticity equation appropriate to these disturbances in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during winter is solved with realistic radiation physics included in the heating term. A series of model experiments demonstrates the roles of the various optically active constituents in maintaining the stationary planetary waves. Clouds and the net radiative heating tend to amplify stationary planetary wavenumber one by increasing the forcing asymmetry, but destructive interference between radiative heating and other diabatic processes and topography causes the net radiative heating to dampen stationary planetary wavenumber two. In the presence of clouds, water vapor and to a lesser extent carbon dioxide damp the waves by reducing cloud-generated forcing asymmetries, particularly at zonal wavenumber one.

Donner, L. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Physical properties of the Uranian satellites

Data regarding the Uranian satellites' radii, masses, mean density, and, consequently, their internal structures obtained from the Voyager encounter are analyzed. Topics covered are the sizes, shapes, topography, masses, densities, and models of the internal structures of the five major satellites. The sizes and shapes of the 10 small satellites discovered by Voyager 2 are discussed. The physical properties of the large satellites of Uranus are compared to those other satellites in the outer solar system, particularly those of Jupiter and Saturn, and the implications that these comparisons have for understanding the origin and evolution of the satellites of Uranus are discussed.

Brown, Robert H.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Sensitivity of Regional Climate to Deforestation in the Amazon Basin

The deforestation results in several adverse effect on the natural environment. The focus of this paper is on the effects of deforestation on land-surface processes and regional climate of the Amazon basin. In general, the effect of deforestation on climate are likely to depend on the scale of the defrosted area. In this study, we are interested in the effects due to deforestation of areas with a scale of about 250 km. Hence, a meso-scale climate model is used in performing numerical experiments on the sensitivity of regional climate to deforestation of areas with that size. It is found that deforestation results in less net surface radiation, less evaporation, less rainfall, and warmer surface temperature. The magnitude of the of the change in temperature is of the order 0.5 C, the magnitudes of the changes in the other variables are of the order of IO%. In order to verify some of he results of the numerical experiments, the model simulations of net surface radiation are compared to recent observations of net radiation over cleared and undisturbed forest in the Amazon. The results of the model and the observations agree in the following conclusion: the difference in net surface radiation between cleared and undisturbed forest is, almost, equally partioned between net solar radiation and net long-wave radiation. This finding contributes to our understanding of the basic physics in the deforestation problem.

Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Thermal Modeling on Planetary Regoliths

The thermal region of the spectrum is one of special interest in planetary science as it is the only region where planetary emission is significant. Studying how planetary surfaces emit in the thermal infrared can tell us about their physical makeup and chemical composition, as well as their temperature profile with depth. This abstract will discuss a model of thermal energy transfer in planetary regoliths on airless bodies which includes both conductive and radiative processes while including the time dependence of the solar input function.

Hale, A. S.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Lunar and Mars Mission Radiation Risks: Cancer Risks, Uncertainties, and Shielding Effectiveness - Part 1

This document addresses calculations of probability distribution functions (PDFs) representing uncertainties in projecting fatal cancer risk from galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and solar particle events (SPEs). PDFs are used to test the effectiveness of potential radiation shielding approaches. Monte-Carlo techniques are used to propagate uncertainties in risk coefficients determined from epidemiology data, dose and dose-rate reduction factors, quality factors, and physics models of radiation environments. Competing mortality risks and functional correlations in radiation quality factor uncertainties are treated in the calculations. The cancer risk uncertainty is about four-fold for lunar and Mars mission risk projections. For short-stay lunar missins (<180 d), SPEs present the most significant risk, but one effectively mitigated by shielding. For long-duration (>180 d) lunar or Mars missions, GCR risks may exceed radiation risk limits. While shielding materials are marginally effective in reducing GCR cancer risks because of the penetrating nature of GCR and secondary radiation produced in tissue by relativisitc particles, polyethylene or carbon composite shielding cannot be shown to significantly reduce risk compared to aluminum shielding. Therefore, improving our knowledge of space radiobiology to narrow uncertainties that lead to wide PDFs is the best approach to ensure radiation protection goals are met for space exploration.

Cucinotta, Francis A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Particle Acceleration by Dense Impulsive Structures Moving in Ambient Magnetospheric Plasma. 3-D Hybrid Kinetic Modeling and MMS Observations

High resolution observations of dense plasma impulsive structures moving through an ambient background magnetospheric flows were captured by the Magnetospheric Multiscale mission. The observations show particle heating and acceleration, shock-like wave formation, and whistler wave excitation inside the interface between the dense impulsive plasma structures and the ambient plasma. A multiscale hybrid kinetic simulation provides an explanation of the observed wave-particle interactions with the assumption that the dense plasma structures may be represented by plasma clouds which are formed at the magnetopause layer due to reconnection processes. Plain Language Summary: Dense, impulsive plasma structures moving through a background plasma were captured by the NASA Magnetospheric Multiscale mission. The observations show that the dense structures can generate strong perturbations in the electromagnetic field and shock-like waves. Interactions between these electromagnetic waves and the particles results in particle acceleration. 3-D hybrid kinetic modeling (particle description for ions and fluid description for electrons) was used to investigate the plasma physics of the observed structures. It was assumed that the plasma clouds were formed by magnetic field reconnection inside the magnetopause, which is the interface between the solar wind particles and the cold low-density magnetospheric plasma. The work helps us understand the plasma environment at the interface between the Earth and solar wind, near planetary moons, within astrophysical explosions, and possibly at the interface between the solar wind and local interstellar medium.

A. S. Lipatov↗