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NASA NTRS2019

Estimating Alpine Snow Depth by Combining Multi-Frequency Passive Radiance Observations with Ensemble Snowpack Modeling

This paper presents a physically-based snow depth retrieval algorithm adapted for deep mountainous snowpack and airborne multifrequency (10.7, 18.7, 37.0 and 89.0 GHz) passive microwave (PM) radiance observations from a single flight. The algorithm employs a single forecast-analysis cycle of a traditional sequential assimilation scheme. It uses an ensemble of multi-layer snowpack model runs to resolve snow microstructure and melt-refreeze crusts, andmicrowave radiative transfer models to relate snow properties to microwave measurements.Snow depth was retrieved at a 120 m spatial resolution over three 1 km2 Intensive Study Area (ISA) within the Rabbit Ears Meso-Cell Study Area (MSA) from the NASA Cold Land Processes Experiment (CLPX) in Colorado (United States) for one date in February 2003. When evaluated against in situ observations, root mean square error (RMSE) of the snow depth from the assimilation was 13.3 cm for areas with low (<5 %) forest cover, which was a reduction of 48 % in the RMSE compared with the modeled snow depth when the PM observations were not assimilated; indicating a ~5% relative error of the posterior snow depth with respect to the average snow depth (200 cm) measured at these pixels. For pixels with forest cover ranging from 5-15% and 15-30%, results were improved (R2 increased from 0.65 to 0.71 and from 0 to 0.38, respectively) by introducing a forest radiative transfer model during the assimilation.

Airborne Multifrequency↗
NASA NTRS2019

Impact of GMI All-Sky Radiance Assimilation in the NASA GEOS Forecast System

The assimilation of cloud- and precipitation-affected ("all-sky") radiances has become an important focus of development at most numerical weather prediction centers. Efforts at the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have focused on all-sky assimilation of GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) radiances, which became operational in the GEOS real-time production system in July 2018. Implementation of the all-sky capability required several upgrades to the GEOS hybrid 4D-EnVar assimilation infrastructure including the addition of control variables for cloud liquid, cloud ice, rain and snow, enhancements to the radiative transfer model, new hybrid background and observational error models, and modified quality control and bias correction procedures. This talk describes the impact of GMI all-sky radiance assimilation on GEOS analyses and forecasts as determined from examination of various metrics including statistics of background departures and analysis increments, forecast skill scores, and forecast sensitivity observation impact (FSOI) calculations. It is shown that in addition to the hydrometeors themselves, the initial wind, temperature and pressure fields all undergo significant dynamic adjustment in response to the analyzed cloud and precipitation features. Assimilation of GMI radiances leads to improved forecasts of lower tropospheric wind, temperature and humidity, especially in the tropics. The largest forecast improvements occur during the first 48 hours, with diminishing impact thereafter. However, combining GMI all-sky assimilation with improvements to the GEOS model physics as in the recent implementation of the real-time production system, extends these forecast improvements well in to the medium range. FSOI results based on a 24-hr moist global energy norm show that GMI radiances provide nearly uniform beneficial impact throughout the tropics, with more mixed impacts in the subtropics. While the overall impact of GMI is smaller than that of other, much more numerous microwave and hyperspectral infrared radiance types, its impact is among the largest of all radiance types on a per-observation basis.

Gelaro, Ron↗
NASA NTRS1973

A magnetospheric field model incorporating the OGO 3 and 5 magnetic field observations.

A magnetospheric field model is presented in which the usually assumed toroidal ring current is replaced by a circular disk current of finite thickness that extends from the tail to geocentric distances less than 3 earth radii. The drastic departure of this model from the concept of the conventional ring current lies in that the current is continuous from the tail to the inner magnetosphere. This conceptual change was required to account for the recent results of analysis of the OGO 3 and 5 magnetic field observations. In the present model the cross-tail current flows along circular arcs concentric with the earth and completes circuit via surface currents on the magnetopause. Apart from these return currents in the tail magnetopause, Mead's (1964) model is used for the field from the magnetopause current. The difference scalar field, Delta B, defined as the difference between the scalar field calculated from the present model and the magnitude of the dipole field, is found to be in gross agreement with the observed Delta B.

Sugiura, M.↗
NASA NTRS1973

A magnetospheric field model incorporating the OGO 3 and 5 magnetic field observations

A magnetospheric field model is presented in which the usually assumed toroidal ring current is replaced by a circular disk current of finite thickness that extends from the tail to geocentric distances less than 3 earth radii. The drastic departure of this model from the concept of the conventional ring current lies in the fact that the current is continuous from the tail to the inner magnetosphere. This conceptual change was required to account for the recent results of analysis of the OGO 3 and 5 magnetic field observations. In the present model the cross-tail current flows along circular arcs concentric with the earth and completes circuit via surface currents on the magnetopause. Apart from these return currents in the tail magnetopause, Mead's model is used for the field from the magnetopause current. The difference scalar field, delta B, defined as the difference between the scalar field calculated from the present model and the magnitude of the dipole field is found to be in gross agreement with the observed delta B. An updated version of the delta B contours from the OGO 3 and 5 observations, which is used for the comparison, is presented.

Sugiura, M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Aspects of modelling the tectonics of large volcanoes on the terrestrial planets

Analytic solutions for the response of planetary lithospheres to volcanic loads have been used to model faulting and infer elastic plate thicknesses. Predictions of the distribution of faulting around volcanic loads, based on the application of Anderson's criteria for faulting to the results of the models, do not agree well with observations. Such models do not give the stress state and stress history within the edifice. The effects of episodic load growth can also be treated. When these effects are included, models give much better agreement with observations.

Mcgovern, Patrick J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Climatology of Carbon Monoxide and Water Vapor on Mars as Observed by CRISM and Modeled by the GEM-Mars General Circulation Model

Radiative transfer modeling of near-infrared spectra taken by the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) instrument onboard Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) enables the column-integrated abundance of carbon monoxide (CO) and water vapor (H 2 O) to be retrieved. These results provide a detailed global description of the seasonal and spatial distribution of CO in the Mars atmosphere and new information about the interannual variability of H2O. The CRISM retrievals show the seasonally and globally averaged carbon monoxide mixing ratio to be near 800 parts per million, but with strong seasonal variations, especially at high latitudes. At low latitudes, the carbon monoxide mixing ratio varies in response to the mean seasonal cycle of surface pressure and shows little variation with topography. At high latitudes, carbon monoxide is depleted in the summer hemisphere by a factor of two or more, while in the winter hemisphere there is relatively higher mixing ratio in regions with low-lying topography. Water vapor shows only modest interannual variations, with the largest observed difference being unusually dry conditions in the wake of the Mars Year 28 global dust storm. Modeling results from the GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale) - Mars general circulation model generally reproduce the observed seasonal and spatial trends and provide insight into the underlying physical processes.

Smith, Michael D.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Atmosphere-Ocean Surface Flux Feedbacks in Recent Satellite and Model Reanalysis Products

Recent investigations have examined observations in an attempt to determine when and how the ocean forces the atmosphere, and vice versa. These studies focus primarily on relationships between sea surface temperature anomalies and the turbulent and radiative surface heat fluxes. It has been found that both positive and negative feedbacks, which enhance or reduce sea surface temperature anomaly amplitudes, can be generated through changes in the surface boundary layer. Consequent changes in sea surface temperature act to change boundary layer characteristics through changes in static stability or turbulent fluxes. Previous studies over the global oceans have used coarse-resolution observational and model products such as ICOADS and the NCEP Reanalysis. This study focuses on documenting the atmosphere ocean feedbacks that exist in recently produced higher resolution products, namely the SeaFlux v1.0 product and the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). It has been noted in recent studies that evidence of oceanic forcing of the atmosphere exists on smaller scales than the usually more dominant atmospheric forcing of the ocean, particularly in higher latitudes. It is expected that use of these higher resolution products will allow for a more comprehensive description of these small-scale ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. The SeaFlux intercomparisons have revealed large scatter between various surface flux climatologies. This study also investigates the uncertainty in surface flux feedbacks based on several of these recent satellite based climatologies

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2015

Assimilation of GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Observations into a Land Surface Model for the Assessment of Regional Flood Potential

We evaluate performance of the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) under flood conditions after the assimilation of observations of the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Assimilation offers three key benefits for the viability of GRACE observations to operational applications: (1) near-real time analysis; (2) a downscaling of GRACE's coarse spatial resolution; and (3) state disaggregation of the vertically-integrated TWSA. We select the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin as a case study, and find that assimilation generally made the model wetter in the months preceding flood. We compare model outputs with observations from 14 USGS groundwater wells to assess improvements after assimilation. Finally, we examine disaggregated water storage information to improve the mechanistic understanding of event generation. Validation establishes that assimilation improved the model skill substantially, increasing regional groundwater anomaly correlation from 0.58 to 0.86. For the 2011 flood event in the Missouri river basin, results show that groundwater and snow water equivalent were contributors to pre-event flood potential, providing spatially-distributed early warning information.

flood↗
NASA NTRS1985

Transport processes in the stratosphere: Model simulations and comparisons with satellite observations

A three dimensional atmospheric model was used to study transport processes and to simulate the distribution of chemically active species in the stratosphere. The present results are part of a long term simulation of the seasonally varying structure of stratospheric trace constituents. The occurrence of a midwinter stratospheric warming and the associated transport of O3 and HNO3 during the simulation are described. Comparison of the simulated distributions of O3 and HNO3 are made with data from the Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) experiment. In addition, distributions of Ertel's potential vorticity on isentropic surfaces (IPV) are evaluated as a diagnostic for interpreting transport processes. Comparisons are made with IPV distributions inferred from LIMS temperature data.

Grose, W. L.↗
NASA NTRS2022

Satellite-Based Evaluation of AeroCom Model Bias in Biomass Burning Regions

Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by −93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.

biomass burning aerosols↗
NASA NTRS2014

Solar Ion Processing of Itokawa Grains: Reconciling Model Predictions with Sample Observations

Analytical TEM observations of Itokawa grains reported to date show complex solar wind ion processing effects in the outer 30-100 nm of pyroxene and olivine grains. The effects include loss of long-range structural order, formation of isolated interval cavities or "bubbles", and other nanoscale compositional/microstructural variations. None of the effects so far described have, however, included complete ion-induced amorphization. To link the array of observed relationships to grain surface exposure times, we have adapted our previous numerical model for progressive solar ion processing effects in lunar regolith grains to the Itokawa samples. The model uses SRIM ion collision damage and implantation calculations within a framework of a constant-deposited-energy model for amorphization. Inputs include experimentally-measured amorphization fluences, a Pi steradian variable ion incidence geometry required for a rotating asteroid, and a numerical flux-versus-velocity solar wind spectrum.

Christoffersen, Roy↗
NASA NTRS2012

Observations of CMEs and Models of the Eruptive Corona

It is now realized that coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the most energetic phenomenon in the heliosphere. Although early observations (in the 1970s and 19805) revealed most of the properties of CMEs, it is the extended and uniform data set from the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) mission that helped us consolidate our knowledge on CMEs. The Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) mission has provided direct confirmation of the three-dimensional structure of CMEs. The broadside view provided by the STEREO coronagraphs helped us estimate the width of the halo CMEs and hence validate CME cone models. Current theoretical ideas on the internal structure of CMEs suggest that a flux rope is central to the CME structure, which has considerable observational support both from remote-sensing and in-situ observations. The flux-rope nature is also consistent with the post-eruption arcades with high-temperature plasma and the charge states observed within CMEs arriving at Earth. The quadrature observations also helped us understand the relation between the radial and expansion speeds of CMEs, which were only known from empirical relations in the past. This paper highlights some of these results obtained during solar cycle 23 and 24 and discusses implications for CME models.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS1986

Two component laser velocimeter measurements of turbulence parameters downstream of an axisymmetric sudden expansion

Simultaneous two-component laser velocimeter measurements were made in an axisymmetric sudden expansion flowfield. A specially designed correction lens was employed to correct optical aberrations introduced by the circular tube. This lens system allowed the accurate simultaneous measurement of axial and radial velocities in the test section. The experimental measurements were compared to predictions generated by a code which employed the k-epsilon turbulence model. Possible sources of differences observed between model predictions and the measurements are discussed.

Gould, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Light-element abundances in Population II dwarfs

This paper reviews the abundances of the light elements lithium, beryllium, and boron in main-sequence and subgiant, Population II stars. Li is important to cosmology because it is synthesized in the Big Bang, but is also used to study stellar structure. Beryllium is useful for studying galactic chemical evolution because its formation in the interstellar medium involves different physics to stellar nucleosynthesis, and it thus provides independent data on the evolution of the halo. Some (though not all) inhomogeneous Big Bang nucleosynthesis codes predict a significant primordial component to this element, so its observed abundance may constrain such models. Boron, observations of which became feasible with the operation of the Hubble Space Telescope, provides complementary data to Be, helping check the element ratios predicted by calculations of spallation reactions in the interstellar medium, and will indicate whether the observed Be abundance has an excess over the expected spallation component, indicating a possible primordial component.

Ryan, Sean G.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Models for X-Ray Emission from Isolated Pulsars

A model is proposed for the observed combination of power-law and thermal X-rays from rotationally powered pulsars. For gamma-ray pulsars with accelerators very many stellar radii above the neutron star surface, 100 MeV curvature gamma-rays from e(-) or e(+) flowing starward out of such accelerators are converted to e1 pairs on closed field lines all around the star. These pairs strongly affect X-ray emission from near the star in two ways. (1) The pairs are a source of synchrotron emission immediately following their creation in regions where B approx. 10(exp 10) G. This emission, in the photon energy range 0.1 keV less than E(sub X) less than 5 MeV, has a power-law spectrum with energy index 0.5 and X-ray luminosity that depends on the back-flow current, and is typically approx. 10(exp 33) ergs/ s. (2) The pairs ultimately a cyclotron resonance "blanket" surrounding the star except for two holes along the open field line bundles which pass through it. In such a blanket the gravitational pull on e(+,-) pairs toward the star is balanced by the hugely amplified push of outflowing surface emitted X-rays wherever cyclotron resonance occurs. Because of it the neutron star is surrounded by a leaky "hohlraum" of hot blackbody radiation with two small holes, which prevents direct X-ray observation of a heated polar cap of a gamma-ray pulsar. Weakly spin modulated radiation from the blanket together with more strongly spin-modulated radiation from the holes through it would then dominate observed low energy (0.1-10 keV) emission. For non-y-ray pulsars, in which no such accelerators with their accompanying extreme relativistic back-flow toward the star are expected, optically thick e1 resonance blankets should not form (except in special cases very close to the open field line bundle). From such pulsars blackbody radiation from both the warm stellar surface and the heated polar caps should be directly observable. In these pulsars, details of the surface magnetic field evolution, especially of polar cap areas, become relevant to observations. The models are compared to X-ray data from Geminga, PSR 1055-52, PSR 0656+14, PSR 1929+10, and PSR 0950+08.

Wang, F. Y.-H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Anomalous Heat Budgets in the Interior Pacific Ocean on Seasonal- to -Timescales and Gyre Spacescales

This study quantifies uncertainties in closing the seasonal cycle of diabatic heat storage over the Pacific Ocean from 20 degrees S to 60 degrees N through the synthesis of World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) products over 7 years from 1993-1999. We utilize WOCE reanalysis products from the following sources: diabatic heat storage (DHS) from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO); near-surface geostrophic and Ekman currents from the Earth and Space Research (ESR); and air-sea heat fluxes from Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and European Center for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We interpolate these products onto a common grid, allowing the seasonal cycle of DHS to be modeled for comparison with that observed. Everywhere latent heat flux residuals dominate sensible heat flux residuals and shortwave heat flux residuals dominate longwave heat flux residuals, both comparable in magnitude to the residual horizontal heat advection. We find the root-mean-square (RMS) of the differences between observed and model residual DHS tendencies to be less than 15 W per square meters everywhere except in the Kuroshio extension. Comparable COADS and NCEP products perform better than ECMWF products in the extra-tropics, while the NCEP product performs best in the tropics. Radiative and turbulent air-sea heat flux residuals computed from ship-born measurements perform better than those computed from satellite cloud and wind measurements. Since the RMS differences derive largely from biases in measured wind speed and cloud fraction, least-squares minimization is used to correct the residual Ekman heat advection and air-sea heat flux. Minimization reduces RMS differences less than 5 W per square meters except in the Kuroshio extension, suggesting how winds, clouds, and exchange coefficients in the NCEP, ECMWF, and ESR products can be improved.

White, Warren↗