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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

The winter central Arctic surface energy budget: A model evaluation using observations from the MOSAiC campaign

This study evaluates the simulation of wintertime (15 October, 2019, to 15 March, 2020) statistics of the central Arctic near-surface atmosphere and surface energy budget observed during the MOSAiC campaign with short-term forecasts from 7 state-of-the-art operational and experimental forecast systems. Five of these systems are fully coupled ocean-sea ice-atmosphere models. Forecast systems need to simultaneously simulate the impact of radiative effects, turbulence, and precipitation processes on the surface energy budget and near-surface atmospheric conditions in order to produce useful forecasts of the Arctic system. This study focuses on processes unique to the Arctic, such as, the representation of liquid-bearing clouds at cold temperatures and the representation of a persistent stable boundary layer. It is found that contemporary models still struggle to maintain liquid water in clouds at cold temperatures. Given the simple balance between net longwave radiation, sensible heat flux, and conductive ground flux in the wintertime Arctic surface energy balance, a bias in one of these components manifests as a compensating bias in other terms. This study highlights the different manifestations of model bias and the potential implications on other terms. Three general types of challenges are found within the models evaluated: representing the radiative impact of clouds, representing the interaction of atmospheric heat fluxes with sub-surface fluxes (i.e., snow and ice properties), and representing the relationship between stability and turbulent heat fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Brewer–Dobson Circulation in CMIP6

The Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) is a key feature of the stratosphere that models need to accurately represent in order to simulate surface climate variability and change adequately. For the first time, the Climate Model Intercomparison Project includes in its phase 6 (CMIP6) a set of diagnostics that allow for careful evaluation of the BDC. Here, the BDC is evaluated against observations and reanalyses using historical simulations. CMIP6 results confirm the well-known inconsistency in the sign of BDC trends between observations and models in the middle and upper stratosphere. Nevertheless, the large uncertainty in the observational trend estimates opens the door to compatibility. In particular, when accounting for the limited sampling of the observations, model and observational trend error bars overlap in 40 % of the simulations with available output. The increasing CO2 simulations feature an acceleration of the BDC but reveal a large spread in the middle-to-upper stratospheric trends, possibly related to the parameterized gravity wave forcing. The very close connection between the shallow branch of the residual circulation and surface temperature is highlighted, which is absent in the deep branch. The trends in mean age of air are shown to be more robust throughout the stratosphere than those in the residual circulation.

Brewer–Dobson circulation↗
NASA NTRS1986

A morphological study of waves in the thermosphere using DE-2 observations

Theoretical model and data analysis of DE-2 observations for determining the correlation between the neutral wave activity and plasma irregularities have been presented. The relationships between the observed structure of the sources, precipitation and joule heating, and the fluctuations in neutral and plasma parameters are obtained by analyzing two measurements of neutral atmospheric wave activity and plasma irregularities by DE-2 during perigee passes at an altitude on the order of 300 to 350 km over the polar cap. A theoretical model based on thermal nonlinearity (joule heating) to give mode-mode coupling is developed to explore the role of neutral disturbance (winds and gravity waves) on the generation of plasma irregularities.

Gross, S. H.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Groundwater Volume Loss in Mexico City Constrained by InSAR and GRACE Observations and Mechanical Models

Abstract Groundwater withdrawal can cause localized and rapid poroelastic subsidence, spatially broad elastic uplift of low amplitude, and changes in the gravity field. Constraining groundwater loss in Mexico City, we analyze data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and its follow‐on mission (GRACE/FO) and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) Sentinel‐1A/B images between 2014 and 2021. GRACE/FO observations yield a groundwater loss of 0.85–3.87 km 3 /yr for a region of ∼300 × 600 km surrounding Mexico City. Using the high‐resolution interferometric SAR data set, we measure >35 cm/yr subsidence within the city and up to 2 cm/yr of uplift in nearby areas. Attributing the long‐term subsidence to poroelastic aquifer compaction and the long‐term uplift to elastic unloading, we apply respective models informed by local geology, yielding groundwater loss of 0.86–12.57 km 3 /yr. Our results suggest Mexico City aquifers have been depleting at faster rates since 2015, exacerbating the socioeconomic and health impacts of long‐term groundwater overdrafts.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Use of A-Train Aerosol Observations to Constrain Direct Aerosol Radiative Effects (DARE) Comparisons with Aerocom Models and Uncertainty Assessments

We describe a technique for combining multiple A-Train aerosol data sets, namely MODIS spectral AOD (aerosol optical depth), OMI AAOD (absorption aerosol optical depth) and CALIOP aerosol backscatter retrievals (hereafter referred to as MOC retrievals) to estimate full spectral sets of aerosol radiative properties, and ultimately to calculate the 3-D distribution of direct aerosol radiative effects (DARE). We present MOC results using almost two years of data collected in 2007 and 2008, and show comparisons of the aerosol radiative property estimates to collocated AERONET retrievals. Use of the MODIS Collection 6 AOD data derived with the dark target and deep blue algorithms has extended the coverage of the MOC retrievals towards higher latitudes. The MOC aerosol retrievals agree better with AERONET in terms of the single scattering albedo (ssa) at 441 nm than ssa calculated from OMI and MODIS data alone, indicating that CALIOP aerosol backscatter data contains information on aerosol absorption. We compare the spatio-temporal distribution of the MOC retrievals and MOC-based calculations of seasonal clear-sky DARE to values derived from four models that participated in the Phase II AeroCom model intercomparison initiative. Overall, the MOC-based calculations of clear-sky DARE at TOA over land are smaller (less negative) than previous model or observational estimates due to the inclusion of more absorbing aerosol retrievals over brighter surfaces, not previously available for observationally-based estimates of DARE. MOC-based DARE estimates at the surface over land and total (land and ocean) DARE estimates at TOA are in between previous model and observational results. Comparisons of seasonal aerosol property to AeroCom Phase II results show generally good agreement best agreement with forcing results at TOA is found with GMI-MerraV3. We discuss sampling issues that affect the comparisons and the major challenges in extending our clear-sky DARE results to all-sky conditions. We present estimates of clear-sky and all-sky DARE and show uncertainties that stem from the assumptions in the spatial extrapolation and accuracy of aerosol and cloud properties, in the diurnal evolution of these properties, and in the radiative transfer calculations.

aerosol↗
NASA NTRS2011

Optimal Asteroid Mass Determination from Planetary Range Observations: A Study of a Simplified Test Model

Mars ranging observations are available over the past 10 years with an accuracy of a few meters. Such precise measurements of the Earth-Mars distance provide valuable constraints on the masses of the asteroids perturbing both planets. Today more than 30 asteroid masses have thus been estimated from planetary ranging data (see [1] and [2]). Obtaining unbiased mass estimations is nevertheless difficult. Various systematic errors can be introduced by imperfect reduction of spacecraft tracking observations to planetary ranging data. The large number of asteroids and the limited a priori knowledge of their masses is also an obstacle for parameter selection. Fitting in a model a mass of a negligible perturber, or on the contrary omitting a significant perturber, will induce important bias in determined asteroid masses. In this communication, we investigate a simplified version of the mass determination problem. Instead of planetary ranging observations from spacecraft or radar data, we consider synthetic ranging observations generated with the INPOP [2] ephemeris for a test model containing ~25000 asteroids. We then suggest a method for optimal parameter selection and estimation in this simplified framework.

asteroids↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-Varying Output Delay Compensation-A Model-Free Approach and its Application on Cooperative On-Ramp Merging

This paper presents a model-free approach to compensate for time-varying output delay in networked control systems. The proposed architecture combines a model-free observer and the Smith predictor. The model-free observer estimates the current state while handling modeling errors and uncertainties of the system. The Smith predictor moves the effect of time delay outside the control closed-loop using the estimated delayed output and the actual output of the plant. The proposed method is applied to a cooperative on-ramp merging problem. First, an ultra-local model predictive control is implemented to provide a computationally efficient online speed planner agnostic to the vehicle dynamics. After that, a model-free observer is designed to estimate the current state. Finally, the proposed architecture is tested against a time-varying output delay with an upper bound of 200 milliseconds. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method with improved tracking of intervehicle distance.

Waleed khan, Muhammad [The University of Texas at ↗
NASA NTRS2015

Late-Time Evolution of Composite Supernova Remnants: Deep Chandra Observations and Hydrodynamical Modeling of a Crushed Pulsar Wind Nebula in SNR G327.1-1.1

In an effort to better understand the evolution of composite supernova remnants (SNRs) and the eventual fate of relativistic particles injected by their pulsars, we present a multifaceted investigation of the interaction between a pulsar wind nebula (PWN) and its host SNR G327.1-1.1. Our 350 ks Chandra X-ray observations of SNR G327.1-1.1 reveal a highly complex morphology; a cometary structure resembling a bow shock, prong-like features extending into large arcs in the SNR interior, and thermal emission from the SNR shell. Spectral analysis of the non-thermal emission offers clues about the origin of the PWN structures, while enhanced abundances in the PWN region provide evidence for mixing of supernova ejecta with PWN material. The overall morphology and spectral properties of the SNR suggest that the PWN has undergone an asymmetric interaction with the SNR reverse shock(RS) that can occur as a result of a density gradient in the ambient medium and or a moving pulsar that displaces the PWN from the center of the remnant. We present hydrodynamical simulations of G327.1-1.1 that show that its morphology and evolution can be described by a approx. 17,000 yr old composite SNR that expanded into a density gradient with an orientation perpendicular to the pulsar's motion. We also show that the RSPWN interaction scenario can reproduce the broadband spectrum of the PWN from radio to gamma-ray wavelengths. The analysis and modeling presented in this work have important implications for our general understanding of the structure and evolution of composite SNRs.

Evolution↗
DOE OSTI2021

Automatic enhancement in 6D supergravity and F-theory models

We observe that in many F-theory models, tuning a specific gauge group G and matter content M under certain circumstances leads to an automatic enhancement to a larger gauge group G ' ⊂ G and matter content M ' ⊂ M . We propose that this is true for any theory G, M whenever there exists a containing theory G ' , M ' that cannot be Higgsed down to G, M . We give a number of examples including non-Higgsable gauge factors, nonabelian gauge factors, abelian gauge factors, and exotic matter. In each of these cases, tuning an F-theory model with the desired features produces either an enhancement or an inconsistency, often when the associated anomaly coefficient becomes too large. This principle applies to a variety of models in the apparent 6D supergravity swampland, including some of the simplest cases with U(1) and SU( N ) gauge groups and generic matter, as well as infinite families of U(1) models with higher charges presented in the prior literature, potentially ruling out all these apparent swampland theories.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Observations and a model of gravity-wave variability in the middle atmosphere

A major goal was to determine what portion of the gravity-wave frequency spectrum accounted for the majority of the momentum flux and divergence, as this has important implications for the middle atmosphere response. It was found that approx. 70% of the total flux and divergence was due to wave motions with observed periods less than 1 hour, consistent with expectations based on the shape of the observed gravity-wave spectrum (FrItts, 1984). This dominance of the momentum flux and divergence by high-frequency motions implies a potential for the modulation of those quantities by large-amplitude motions at lower frequencies. A second, striking aspect of the velocity and momentum flux data is its dramatic diurnal variability, particularly at certain levels. This variability is illustrated with the momentum flux, computed in 8-hr blocks. The dominant contributions here are due to waves with periods less than 1 hr. The variability with height and size of the mean square velocity in the west beam and the momentum flux, energed over the 3-day period. A detailed analysis of the various tidal motions present during this data interval was performed, and it was determined that variations in the zontal wind profile imposed by the diurnal tidal motion are probably responsible for the modulation of the gravity-wave amplitudes and momentum fluxes.

Fritts, D. C.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models↗
NASA NTRS2007

Energetic Neutral Atom Emissions From Venus: VEX Observations and Theoretical Modeling

Venus has almost no intrinsic magnetic field to shield itself from its surrounding environment. The solar wind thus directly interacts with the planetary ionosphere and atmosphere. One of the by-products of this close encounter is the production of energetic neutral atom (ENA) emissions. Theoretical studies have shown that significant amount of ENAs are emanated from the planet. The launch of the Venus Express (VEX) in 2005 provided the first light ever of the Venus ENA emissions. The observed ENA flux level and structure are in pretty good agreement with the theoretical studies. In this paper, we present VEX ENA data and the comparison with numerical simulations. We seek to understand the solar wind interaction with the planet and the impacts on its atmospheres.

Fok, M.-C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Agile Satellite Planning for Multi-Payload Observations in Earth Science Models

We present the planner methods and preliminary results for a new paradigm of earth observing systems based on coordinating science observations for a constellation of agile satellites which can quickly maneuver to change viewing angles. Each satellite has multiple heterogeneous instruments.

Satellite Constellation↗
NASA NTRS2014

Insights on TTL Dehydration Mechanisms from Microphysical Modelling of Aircraft Observations

The Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL), a transition layer between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the tropics, serves as the entryway of various trace gases into the stratosphere. Of particular interest is the transport of water vapor through the TTL, as WV is an important greenhouse gas and also plays a significant role in stratospheric chemistry by affecting polar stratospheric cloud formation and the ozone budget. While the dominant control of stratospheric water vapor by tropical cold point temperatures via the "freeze-drying" process is generally well understood, the details of the TTL dehydration mechanisms, including the relative roles of deep convection, atmospheric waves and cloud microphysical processes, remain an active area of research. The dynamical and microphysical processes that influence TTL water vapor concentrations are investigated in simulations of cloud formation and dehydration along air parcel trajectories. We first confirm the validity of our Lagrangian models in a case study involving measurements from the Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX) flights over the central and eastern tropical Pacific in Oct-Nov 2011 and Jan-Feb 2013. ERA-Interim winds and seasonal mean heating rates from Yang et al. (2010) are used to advance parcels back in time from the flight tracks, and time-varying vertical profiles of water vapor along the diabatic trajectories are calculated in a one-dimensional cloud model as in Jensen and Pfister (2004) but with more reliable temperature field, wave and convection schemes. The simulated water vapor profiles demonstrate a significant improvement over estimates based on the Lagrangian Dry Point, agreeing well with aircraft observations when the effects of cloud microphysics, subgrid-scale gravity waves and convection are included. Following this approach, we examine the dynamical and microphysical control of TTL water vapor in the 30ºS-30ºN latitudinal belt and elucidate the dominant processes in the winter and summer seasons. Implications of the TTL dehydration processes for the regulation of global stratospheric humidity will be discussed.

stratosphere↗
DOE OSTI2021

Transforming ESM Physical Parameterization Development Using Machine Learning Trained on Global Cloud-Resolving Models and Process Observations

ESMs robustly predict that 21st century greenhouse warming will slowly increase global mean precipitation, rapidly increase extreme precipitation, and increase subtropical drought. ESMs agree less about precipitation trends and extremes over particular land regions critical to human societies, e. g. in semi-arid regions such as California or the Sahel, or in wetter climates prone to monsoonal rainfall (e. g. southeast Asia) or to tropical cyclones and flooding from mesoscale convective systems (e. g. the southeastern U.S.) Deep convective parameterizations and poor representation of orography and complex vegetated land surfaces contribute to this inter-model spread; clouds, aerosols and sea-surface temperature biases are also key. Reducing regional precipitation projection uncertainty has enormous planning value for water supplies, land use, wildfire, hydropower, flood control, etc. IPCC-class ESMs are making painfully slow progress on this.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Observation-constrained kinetic modeling of isoprene SOA formation in the atmosphere

Isoprene has the largest global non-methane hydrocarbon emission, and the oxidation of isoprene plays a crucial role in the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). Two primary processes are known to contribute to SOA formation from isoprene oxidation: (1) the reactive uptake of isoprene-derived epoxides on acidic or aqueous particle surfaces and (2) the absorptive gas–particle partitioning of low-volatility oxidation products. In this study, we developed a new multiphase condensed isoprene oxidation mechanism that includes these processes with key molecular intermediates and products. The new mechanism was applied to simulate isoprene gas-phase oxidation products and SOA formation from previously published chamber experiments under a variety of conditions and atmospheric observations during the Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Studies (SOAS) field campaign. Our results show that SOA formation from most of the chamber experiments is reasonably reproduced using our mechanism, except when the concentration ratios of initial nitric oxide to isoprene exceed ~ 2, the formed SOA is significantly underpredicted. The SOAS simulations also reasonably agree with the measurements regarding the diurnal pattern and concentrations of different product categories, while the total isoprene SOA remains underestimated. The molecular compositions of the modeled SOA indicate that multifunctional low-volatility products contribute to isoprene SOA more significantly than previously thought, with a median mass contribution of ~ 57 % to the total modeled isoprene SOA. However, this contribution is intricately intertwined with IEPOX-derived SOA (IEPOX: isoprene-derived epoxydiols), posing challenges for their differentiation using bulk aerosol composition analysis (e.g., the aerosol mass spectrometer with positive matrix factorization). Furthermore, the SOA from these pathways may vary greatly, mainly dependent on the volatility estimation and treatment of particle-phase processes (i.e., photolysis and hydrolysis). Our findings emphasize that the various pathways to produce these low-volatility species should be considered in models to more accurately predict isoprene SOA formation. The new condensed isoprene chemical mechanism can be further incorporated into regional-scale air quality models, such as the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modelling System (CMAQ), to assess isoprene SOA formation on a larger scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Corona, Jet, and Relativistic Line Models for Suzaku/RXTE/Chandra-HETG Observations of the Cygnus X-1 Hard State

Using Suzaku and the Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE), we have conducted a series of four simultaneous observations of the galactic black hole candidate Cyg X-1 in what were historically faint and spectrally hard "low states". Additionally, all of these observations occurred near superior conjunction with our line of sight to the X-ray source passing through the dense phases of the "focused wind" from the mass donating secondary. One of our observations was also simultaneous with observations by the Chandra-High Energy Transmission Grating (HETG). These latter spectra are crucial for revealing the ionized absorption due to the secondary s focused wind. Such absorption is present and must be accounted for in all four spectra. These simultaneous data give an unprecedented view of the 0.8-300 keV spectrum of Cyg X-1, and hence bear upon both corona and X-ray emitting jet models of black hole hard states. Three models fit the spectra well: coronae with thermal or mixed thermal/non-thermal electron populations, and jets. All three models require a soft component that we fit with a low temperature disk spectrum with an inner radius of only a few tens of GM/c2. All three models also agree that the known spectral break at 10 keV is not solely due to the presence of reflection, but each gives a different underlying explanation for the augmentation of this break. Thus whereas all three models require that there is a relativistically broadened Fe line, the strength and inner radius of such a line is dependent upon the specific model, thus making premature line-based estimates of the black hole spin in the Cyg X-1 system. We look at the relativistic line in detail, accounting for the narrow Fe emission and ionized absorption detected by HETG. Although the specific relativistic parameters of the line are continuum-dependent, none of the broad line fits allow for an inner disk radius that is > 40 GM/c(sup 2).

Nowak, Michael A.↗