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DOE OSTI2021

Dynamical Avenues for Mercury’s Origin. I. The Lone Survivor of a Primordial Generation of Short-period Protoplanets

The absence of planets interior to Mercury continues to puzzle terrestrial-planet formation models, particularly when contrasted with the relatively high derived occurrence rates of short-period planets around Sun-like stars. Recent work proposed that the majority of systems hosting hot super-Earths attain their orbital architectures through an epoch of dynamical instability after forming in quasi-stable, tightly packed configurations. Isotopic evidence seems to suggest that the formation of objects in the super-Earth-mass regime is unlikely to have occurred in the solar system as the terrestrial-forming disk is thought to have been significantly mass deprived starting around 2 Myr after the formation of calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions—a consequence of either Jupiter’s growth or an intrinsic disk feature. Nevertheless, terrestrial-planet formation models and high-resolution investigations of planetesimal dynamics in the gas-disk phase occasionally find that quasi-stable protoplanets with mass comparable to that of Mars emerge in the vicinity of Mercury’s modern orbit. In this paper, we investigate whether it is possible for a primordial configuration of such objects to be cataclysmically destroyed in a manner that leaves Mercury behind as the sole survivor without disturbing the other terrestrial worlds. We use numerical simulations to show that this scenario is plausible. In many cases, the surviving Mercury analog experiences a series of erosive impacts, thereby boosting its Fe/Si ratio. A caveat of our proposed genesis scenario for Mercury is that Venus typically experiences at least one late giant impact.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

A geospatial model for the analysis of time-dependent land subsidence induced by reservoir depletion

Land subsidence due to fluid depletion is an outcome of physical processes operating across a wide range of time and length scales. Although geomechanical models are crucial to simulate reservoir compaction and predict its long-term fate, their use across large regions often bears prohibitive computational costs. To overcome this obstacle, this paper proposes a simplified modelling framework consisting of (i) a near-field numerical solver simulating the coupling between fluid flow and rock deformation with reference to a simplified one-dimensional geometry and (ii) a far-field geospatial algorithm mapping ground settlements across a region through the superposition of poroelastic computations at multiple wells. The model computes the delay between depletion history and reservoir compaction in proximity of a producing well by assuming basal depletion of a fluid-saturated deformable disk, while the Geertsma solution of nucleus of strain is used to extrapolate the impact of such time-varying reservoir compaction around the well. This approach has been used to back-analyze the spatio-temporal progression of subsidence at the Groningen gas field. The results are compared against measurements collected over 50 year of production at 25 benchmark locations scattered over an area of 900 km 2 . It is shown that coupled simulations based on average values of rock compressibility and permeability lead to nonlinear trends of subsidence evolution in good agreement with field measurements, while uncoupled analyses overpredict settlements by more than 70%. Lastly, synthetic forecasts based on different rates of depletion were provided. The results suggest that slower depletion rates lead to lower subsidence at a given time, and that residual subsidence may continue to develop for several decades after interruption of production activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sedimentary Geothermal Resources in Nevada, Utah, Colorado, and Texas

The objectives of this project were to (1) perform a literature review of sedimentary geothermal resources, (2) identify data sources and develop data-collection methodologies that characterize selected resources, (3) screen sedimentary basins and formations for sedimentary geothermal potential, and (4) evaluate the technical feasibility of one or more selected locations. Numerous publications have characterized geothermal resources within sedimentary basins. A literature search reviewed publications describing resources located in Colorado, Louisiana, Nevada, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming. The most attractive resources have high temperature gradients, low drilling costs, and reservoir permeabilities greater than 10 millidarcies (mD). Prospects in Colorado, Nevada, Texas, and Utah exhibit attractive characteristics and were chosen for further analysis. Sedimentary resources in Nevada and Utah are most attractive, followed by tested resources in Texas and untested resources in Colorado. The identified resources in Wyoming and Louisiana had lower geothermal gradients and were not evaluated. Reservoir modeling and techno-economic analysis were performed at Marys River Basin–North in Nevada. Geothermal energy production at this location is expected to have a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) ranging between 10 and 20 cents/kWh. Additional work may result in lower LCOE estimates at this location and at other attractive prospects in these three regions. The Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system of eastern Nevada and western Utah includes a lower carbonate aquifer unit, which has the potential for hosting both conduction- and convection-dominated geothermal systems. Mapping has identified lateral thickness variability expressed as a roughly 120–150-km-wide central corridor, which hosts the thickest and most continuous formations and extends from near Las Vegas north to the Idaho border. Purchase and analysis of privately held legacy seismic data could potentially compensate for the lack of sufficient data documenting measured depth to the lower carbonate aquifer unit. Multiple orogenies, extension episodes, and intrusive events have deformed and displaced the target formations of the lower carbonate aquifer unit. This structural complexity and potential for dipping reservoirs emphasizes the need for detailed geological, geophysical, and reservoir modeling. Heat flow within three Colorado sedimentary basins reviewed as part of this study was calculated in targeted studies by the Colorado Geologic Survey and Colorado School of Mines. These calculations are based on bottom-hole temperature data sets with significant limitations and some variability but produce values consistently higher than the global continental average of 65 mW/m2 for all three basins. Heat flow in the Raton Basin is the highest; however, permeability measurements from specific sedimentary formations with high heat flow have not been obtained. Promising formations for sedimentary geothermal systems were found in all three regions studied—Nevada-Utah, Colorado, and Texas. The next steps for developing sedimentary geothermal resources vary due to differences in available data and resource uncertainties. Additional scopes of work are recommended for identified basins in these three regions.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

On the characteristics of the wake of a wind turbine undergoing large motions caused by a floating structure: an insight based on experiments and multi-fidelity simulations from the OC6 project Phase III

This study reports the results of the second round of analyses of the Offshore Code Comparison, Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation and unCertainty (OC6) project Phase III. While the first round investigated rotor aerodynamic loading, here, focus is given to the wake behavior of a floating wind turbine under large motion. Wind tunnel experimental data from the UNsteady Aerodynamics for FLOating Wind (UNAFLOW) project are compared with the results of simulations provided by participants with methods and codes of different levels of fidelity. The effect of platform motion on both the near and the far wake is investigated. More specifically, the behavior of tip vortices in the near wake is evaluated through multiple metrics, such as streamwise position, core radius, convection velocity, and circulation. Additionally, the onset of velocity oscillations in the far wake is analyzed because this can have a negative effect on stability and loading of downstream rotors. Results in the near wake for unsteady cases confirm that simulations and experiments tend to diverge from the expected linearized quasi-steady behavior when the rotor reduced frequency increases over 0.5. Additionally, differences across the simulations become significant, suggesting that further efforts are required to tune the currently available methodologies in order to correctly evaluate the aerodynamic response of a floating wind turbine in unsteady conditions. Regarding the far wake, it is seen that, in some conditions, numerical methods overpredict the impact of platform motion on the velocity fluctuations. Moreover, results suggest that the effect of platform motion on the far wake, differently from original expectations about a faster wake recovery in a floating wind turbine, seems to be limited or even oriented to the generation of a wake less prone to dissipation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating computation and experiment to investigate photoelectrodes for solar water splitting at the microscopic scale.

CONSPECTUS: Photoelectrochemical water-splitting is a promising and sustainable way to store the energy of the sun in chemical bonds and use it to produce hydrogen gas, a clean fuel. The key components in photoelectrochemical cells (PECs) are photoelectrodes, including a photocathode that reduces water to hydrogen gas and a photoanode that oxidizes water to oxygen gas. Materials used in photoelectrodes for PECs must effectively absorb sunlight, yield photogenerated carriers, and exhibit electronic properties that enable the efficient shuttling of carriers to the surface to participate in relevant water-splitting reactions. Discovering and understanding the key characteristics of optimal photoelectrode materials is paramount to the realization of PEC technologies. Oxide-based photoelectrodes can satisfy many of these materials requirements, including stability in aqueous environments, band edges with reasonable alignment with the redox potentials for water splitting, and ease of synthesis. However, oxide photoelectrodes generally suffer from poor charge transport properties and considerable bulk electron-hole separation, and they have relatively large band gaps. Numerous strategies have been proposed to improve these aspects and understand how these improvements are reflected in the photoelectrochemical performance. Unfortunately, the structural and compositional complexity of multinary oxides accompanied by the inherent complexity of photoelectrochemical processes makes it challenging to understand the individual effects of composition, structure, and defects in the bulk and on the surface on a material's photoelectrochemical properties. The integration of experiment and theory has great potential to increase our atomic-level understanding of structure-composition-property relationships in oxide photoelectrodes. In this Account, we describe how integrating experiment and theory is beneficial for achieving scientific insights at the microscopic scale. We highlight studies focused on understanding the role of (i) bulk composition via solid-state solutions, intercalation, and comparison with isoelectronic compounds, (ii) dopants for both the anion and cation and their interactions with oxygen vacancies, and (iii) surface/interface structure in the photocurrent generation and photoelectrochemical performance in oxide photoelectrodes. In each instance, we outline strategies and considerations for integrating experiment and theory and describe how this integration led to valuable insights and new directions in uncovering structure-composition-property relationships. Our aim is to demonstrate the unique value of combining experiment and theory in studying photoelectrodes and to encourage the continued effort to bring experiment and theory in closer step with each other.

Wang, Wennie↗

DOE OSTI2024

Candidate ferroelectrics via ab initio high-throughput screening of polar materials

Ferroelectrics are a class of polar and switchable functional materials with diverse applications, from microelectronics to energy conversion. Computational searches for new ferroelectric materials have been constrained by accurate prediction of the polarization and switchability with electric field, properties that, in principle, require a comparison with a nonpolar phase whose atomic-scale unit cell is continuously deformable from the polar ground state. For most polar materials, such a higher-symmetry nonpolar phase does not exist or is unknown. Here, we introduce a general high-throughput workflow that screens polar materials as potential ferroelectrics. We demonstrate our workflow on 1978 polar structures in the Materials Project database, for which we automatically generate a nonpolar reference structure using pseudosymmetries, and then compute the polarization difference and energy barrier between polar and nonpolar phases, comparing the predicted values to known ferroelectrics. Focusing on a subset of 182 potential ferroelectrics, we implement a systematic ranking strategy that prioritizes candidates with large polarization and small polar-nonpolar energy differences. To assess stability and synthesizability, we combine information including the computed formation energy above the convex hull, the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database id number, a previously reported machine learning-based synthesizability score, and ab initio phonon band structures. To distinguish between previously reported ferroelectrics, materials known for alternative applications, and lesser-known materials, we combine this ranking with a survey of the existing literature on these candidates through Google Scholar and Scopus databases, revealing ~130 promising materials uninvestigated as ferroelectric. Our workflow and large-scale high-throughput screening lays the groundwork for the discovery of novel ferroelectrics, revealing numerous candidates materials for future experimental and theoretical endeavors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Axion structure formation – II. The wrath of collapse

ABSTRACT The first paper in this series showed that quantum chromodynamic axion dark matter, as a highly correlated Bose fluid, contains extra-classical physics on cosmological scales. The source of the derived extra-classical physics is exchange–correlation interactions induced by the constraints of symmetric particle exchange and interaxion correlations from self-gravitation. The paper also showed that the impact of extra-classical physics on early structure formation is marginal, as the exchange–correlation interaction is inherently non-linear. This paper continues the study of axion structure formation into the non-linear regime, considering the case of full collapse and virialization. The N-body method is chosen to study the collapse, and its algorithms are derived for a condensed Bose fluid. Simulations of isolated gravitational collapse are performed for both Bose and cold dark matter fluids using a prototype N-body code. Unique Bose structures are found to survive even the most violent collapses. Bose post-collapse features include dynamical changes to global structures, creation of new broad sub-structures, violations of classical binding energy conditions, and new fine structures. Effective models of the novel structures are constructed and possibilities for their observation are discussed.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Controls on the frequency content of near-source infrasound at open-vent volcanoes: a case study from Volcán Villarrica, Chile

Infrasound signals from open-vent volcanoes can contain information related to that volcano’s eruption dynamics and future activity. Studying a specific volcano’s acoustic signature during periods of relative quiescence is thus important for understanding potential warning signs of impending eruptions. Volcán Villarrica, located in southern Chile, has a long-lived active lava lake that produces continuous infrasound with spectral peaks centered around 1 Hz that vary by + / - ~ 0.2 Hz over day-to-week-long time scales. The infrasound frequency content has been shown to illuminate key volcanic properties such as eruption style and crater shape. Leading up to Villarrica’s most recent paroxysm in 2015, for instance, infrasound spectral changes coincided with a rise in Villarrica’s lava lake level. Quantifying and understanding the regular fluctuation in recorded infrasonic frequencies from Villarrica and other open-vent volcanoes is thus imperative during periods of relative calm. Our experiment entailed a week-long period of crater rim infrasound observations associated with stable, open-vent activity and revealed two independent source processes: spatter bursting events (relatively broadband infrasound) and lava lake-induced tremor (sustained signals peaked at 1 Hz). A comparison of these acoustic signals with results from 3-D finite-difference time-domain wave propagation models shows that while sound speed variability can influence Villarrica’s spectrum, it cannot explain the full extent of the observed frequency excursions. We conclude that source spectrum variability is primarily responsible for the frequency excursions. In conclusion, our work highlights the utility of data collected from a dense distribution of twenty infrasound sensors operating at the summit coupled with numerical modeling of sound radiation.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Current Progress of the Final Design of a Subcritical Assembly at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory

During the past decade, the US Department of Energy (DOE)/National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Nuclear Criticality Safety Program (NCSP) has been coordinating nuclear criticality safety (NCS) courses to provide training and qualification to new staff, supervisors, managers, regulators, and other professionals involved with NCS. To address the growing need for more NCS training possibilities, a subcritical assembly was designed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The Oak Ridge Subcritical Assembly (ORSA), operated at ORNL, could be used in a new course for fissile material handlers/operators or as a backup training facility for currently existing NCSP hands-on NCS training. This paper describes some of the design steps necessary for obtaining a final ORSA design, beginning with a successful feasibility study performed in 2020. Numerous parameters within each main element of the assembly were considered, such as the reflector used, the type of fuel coating or plating used, and the number of fuel plates used. The design choices related to each parametric study described in this paper are detailed and justified at the end of each subsection. An overview of the current final design characteristics of ORSA and the experiments’ possibilities is also provided. ORSA will be built with fuel plates from legacy Aerojet General Nucleonics (AGN)-201M research reactors currently stored at the Y-12 National Security Complex (Y-12). The cylindrical fuel plates comprise UO 2 particles embedded in polyethylene and have a nominal enrichment of 19.5 ± 0.5 wt % 235 U. The basis for the final design was the feasibility study from 2020. In the feasibility study, ORSA achieved k eff = 0.95, corresponding to a multiplication factor of 20, with approximately 620 g of 235 U (four 4 cm plates, three 2 cm plates, and two 1 cm plates) and an 8.5 cm thick graphite reflector radially and on top of the assembly. The bottom of the assembly has a graphite thickness of 5 cm, and the chosen graphite density was 2.3 g/cm 3 . All design calculations were performed using SCALE 6.2.4 KENO-VI and with the ENDF/B VII.1 Continuous Energy cross-section library.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Quantum-Inspired Bayesian Sampling for Uncertainty Quantification and Machine Learning (Final Technical Report)

With increasing simulation and measurement data, machine learning and artificial intelligence have been widely used in computational decision-making of complex engineering systems. The resulting tools, such as uncertainty quantification solvers, reinforcement learning, and physics-informed machine learning, have achieved great success in critical DOE tasks such as material discovery and design, energy system modeling and control, and numerical weather and climate prediction. A core topic in scientific machine learning and artificial intelligence is Bayesian inference: given an observed data set, people want to estimate the posterior distribution of a (possibly large) number of hidden parameters. Due to the flexibility and weak assumptions, Bayesian sampling has been the mainstream Bayesian inference solvers despite the rapid progress of approximate Bayesian inference. Classical Bayesian sampling methods such as Markov-chain Monte Carlo suffer from a low-acceptance rate due to the random walk nature, therefore state-of-the-art techniques use Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants to efficiently draw posterior samples in a high dimension. The key idea of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo and its variants is to simulate the Hamiltonian dynamics of a classical particle with a fixed mass, and their performance significantly degrades when the posterior distribution is highly spiky or has multiple modes. Leveraging the idea of quantum physics, this project has investigated new theory, algorithms and applications of Bayesian inference (especially Bayesian sampling). The main results include: (1) novel quantum-inspired Bayesian sampling methods that can lead to better accuracy for challenging multi-modal or spiky distributions, (2) more scalable machine learning framework leveraging tensor-compressed Bayesian inference, and (3) Bayesian and sampling approaches for verifying the robustness of continuous and binary neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Partially Observed Epidemics - Application to COVID-19

This report documents a statistical method for the "real-time" characterization of partially observed epidemics. Observations consist of daily counts of symptomatic patients, diagnosed with the disease. Characterization, in this context, refers to estimation of epidemiological parameters that can be used to provide short-term forecasts of the ongoing epidemic, as well as to provide gross information for the time-dependent infection rate. The characterization problem is formulated as a Bayesian inverse problem, and is predicated on a model for the distribution of the incubation period. The model parameters are estimated as distributions using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, thus quantifying the uncertainty in the estimates. The method is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, using data at the country, provincial (e.g., states) and regional (e.g. county) levels. The epidemiological model includes a stochastic component due to uncertainties in the incubation period. This model-form uncertainty is accommodated by a pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings MCMC sampler, which produces posterior distributions that reflect this uncertainty. We approximate the discrepancy between the data and the epidemiological model using Gaussian and negative binomial error models; the latter was motivated by the over-dispersed count data. For small daily counts we find the performance of the calibrated models to be similar for the two error models. For large daily counts the negative-binomial approximation is numerically unstable unlike the Gaussian error model. Application of the model at the country level (for the United States, Germany, Italy, etc.) generally provided accurate forecasts, as the data consisted of large counts which suppressed the day-to-day variations in the observations. Further, the bulk of the data is sourced over the duration before the relaxation of the curbs on population mixing, and is not confounded by any discernible country-wide second wave of infections. At the state-level, where reporting was poor or which evinced few infections (e.g., New Mexico), the variance in the data posed some, though not insurmountable, difficulties, and forecasts were able to capture the data with large uncertainty bounds. The method was found to be sufficiently sensitive to discern the flattening of the infection and epidemic curve due to shelter-in-place orders after around 90% quantile for the incubation distribution (about 10 days for COVID-19). The proposed model was also used at a regional level to compare the forecasts for the central and north-west regions of New Mexico. Modeling the data for these regions illustrated different disease spread dynamics captured by the model. While in the central region the daily counts peaked in the late April, in the north-west region the ramp-up continued for approximately three more weeks.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved liquid lithium surfaces in the Lithium Tokamak Experiment-β

Advances in vacuum, surface, and lithium conditioning techniques throughout five years of continuous operations in LTX-β have produced mirror-like liquid lithium surfaces and demonstrated the feasibility of high-performance tokamak discharges fully surrounded by liquid metal without significant operational problems. Improvements in conditioning techniques and procedures, including many weeks of baking and accumulation of 70 g of Li, led to reduced residual gasses and clean Li surfaces - all while still maintaining enough operational flexibility for multiple in-vacuum diagnostic upgrades and calibrations. Coatings had a visibly clean appearance, with reflective liquid metal demonstrating good wetting and surface adhesion with films that were now macroscopically thick. Solidified Li showed large crystal grains, while surface science measurements observed reduced impurities in the lithium. Steadily improved plasma performance was achieved with liquid lithium, with discharges able to match solid Li in terms of evolution of I p and n e , including rapid density pumping indicating low recycling. There were indications of moderately increased Li impurity influx, though few significant disturbances by the large liquid surfaces on tokamak operations over hundreds of discharges. Liquid metal plasma facing components are a potential solution to the extreme heat and particle fluxes that could cause unacceptable damage to solid materials, while liquid lithium also has the potential for greatly increased confinement in the low-recycling regime. While many liquid metal approaches are possible, and numerous experiments have been conducted in test stands and small modules in fusion devices, LTX-β is the only tokamak operated while fully surrounded by liquid metal.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Overview of high-density QCD studies with the CMS experiment at the LHC

We review key measurements performed by CMS in the context of its heavy ion physics program, using event samples collected in 2010-2018 with several collision systems and energies. These studies provide detailed macroscopic and microscopic probes of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) created at the LHC energies, a medium characterized by the highest temperature and smallest baryon-chemical potential ever reached in the laboratory. Numerous observables related to high-density quantum chromodynamics (QCD) were studied, leading to some of the most impactful and qualitatively novel results in the 40-year history of the field. Using a dedicated high-multiplicity trigger in the first pp run, CMS discovered that small collision systems can exhibit signs of collectivity, a generic phenomenon with significant implications and presently understood to affect essentially all soft physics processes. This observation opened new paths to understand how fluidity and plasma properties emerge in QCD matter as a function of system size. Measurements of jet quenching have reached a completely new level of detail by directly assessing, for the first time, the medium modification of parton showers, as opposed to simply observing leading hadrons or di-hadrons. The first fully reconstructed beauty hadron and heavy-flavor jet nuclear modifications were also measured. The large size of the event samples, the precision of the measurements, and the extension of the probed kinematical phase space, allowed many other hard probes of the QGP medium to be explored in detail, leading to multiple groundbreaking findings. In particular, the seminal measurements of bottomonium suppression patterns answer fundamental questions that have been actively pursued, both theoretically and experimentally, by the community since the mid-1980s. We conclude by outlining the opportunities offered by the continuation of this physics program at the LHC.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Near-cancellation of up- and down-gradient momentum transport in forced magnetized shear-flow turbulence

Visco-resistive magnetohydrodynamic turbulence, driven by a two-dimensional unstable shear layer that is maintained by an imposed body force, is examined by decomposing it into dissipationless linear eigenmodes of the initial profiles. The down-gradient momentum flux, as expected, originates from the large-scale instability. However, continual up-gradient momentum transport by large-scale linearly stable but nonlinearly excited eigenmodes is identified and found to nearly cancel the down-gradient transport by unstable modes. The stable modes effectuate this by depleting the large-scale turbulent fluctuations via energy transfer to the mean flow. This establishes a physical mechanism underlying the long-known observation that coherent vortices formed from nonlinear saturation of the instability reduce turbulent transport and fluctuations, as such vortices are composed of both the stable and unstable modes, which are nearly equal in their amplitudes. The impact of magnetic fields on the nonlinearly excited stable modes is then quantified. Furthermore, even when imposing a strong magnetic field that almost completely suppresses the instability, the up-gradient transport by the stable modes is at least two-thirds of the down-gradient transport by the unstable modes, whereas for weaker fields, this fraction reaches up to 98%. These effects are persistent with variations in magnetic Prandtl number and forcing strength. Finally, continuum modes are shown to be energetically less important, but essential for capturing the magnetic fluctuations and Maxwell stress. A simple analytical scaling law is derived for their saturated turbulent amplitudes. It predicts the falloff rate as the inverse of the Fourier wavenumber, a property which is confirmed in numerical simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nonlinear model of infection wavy oscillation of COVID-19 in Japan based on diffusion kinetics

The infectious propagation of SARS-CoV-2 is continuing worldwide, and specifically, Japan is facing severe circumstances. Medical resource maintenance and action limitations remain the central measures. An analysis of long-term follow-up reports in Japan shows that the infection number follows a unique wavy oscillation, increasing and decreasing over time. However, only a few studies explain the infection wavy oscillation. This study introduces a novel nonlinear mathematical model of the new infection wavy oscillation by applying the macromolecule diffusion theory. In this model, the diffusion coefficient that depends on population density gives nonlinearity in infection propagation. As a result, our model accurately simulated infection wavy oscillations, and the infection wavy oscillation frequency and amplitude were closely linked with the recovery rate of infected individuals. In conclusion, our model provides a novel nonlinear contact infection analysis framework.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Catalytic production of tetrahydropyran (THP): a biomass-derived, economically competitive solvent with demonstrated use in plastic dissolution

Tetrahydropyran (THP) is a five-carbon heterocyclic ether that is non-carcinogenic, non-peroxide forming, biodegradable, and economically competitive with tetrahydrofuran (THF) as a solvent. In this work, THP has been synthesized from renewable biomass at >99.8% selectivity and 98% yield via hydrogenation of furfural-derived 3,4-dihydropyran (DHP) over Ni/SiO 2 in a continuous flow reactor at 150–200 °C. The apparent activation energy of THP formation is 31 kJ mol -1 , and the reaction orders with respect to the partial pressures of H 2 , DHP, and THP are: 2, 1, and -0.3. The kinetic data has been fitted to a Hougen–Watson model where the rate limiting step is the hydrogenation of adsorbed DHP. Ni/SiO 2 is shown to have a low deactivation rate constant of 0.012 h -1 over 100 h time on stream and can be regenerated in situ. As a performance advantage, THP is shown to be resistant to ring opening polymerization under strongly acidic conditions that THF is not, revealing it to be a superior solvent. Further, the minimum selling price of THP is competitive with the market price of THF ($$900 – 1400 per ton ) at a DHP feedstock cost of $1000 per ton. Conductor-like Screening Model for Real Solvents (COSMO-RS) and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with 1008 solvents and 8 common plastics have demonstrated that THP can serve as an alternative solvent to THF, 2-methyltetrahydrofuran (MeTHF), and cyclopentyl methyl ether (CPME) for plastic dissolution, especially low-density polyethylene (LDPE), polypropylene (PP), polystyrene (PS) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). This work establishes THP as a green solvent with excellent thermal, chemical and peroxidative stability that can be used for numerous applications, including waste plastic recycling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimal Economic Dispatch and Load-Following Strategies for Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems

The need for distributed and adaptable energy resources that can handle the growing unpredictability in both supply and demand is rising as the power system continues to modernize. In order to satisfy those needs and maintain grid resilience, nuclear power plants can dynamically control their output, despite typically being used as baseload generators. By incorporating energy storage and renewable energy sources, nuclear integrated energy systems are designed to satisfy the electrical and thermal demands of different end-user applications while ensuring flexible power operation. These systems generate revenue by participating in both wholesale and ancillary services electricity markets, as well as commodity markets for various byproducts generated from coupled industrial processes. This study addresses the economic dispatch efficiency of a tightly coupled nuclear integrated energy system comprising a gigawatt-scale light water reactor, commercialized in the U.S., a high-temperature steam electrolysis unit, a district heating network, and specified electrical loads. To demonstrate the nuclear power plant’s flexibility within the day-ahead unit commitment and economic dispatch framework, while maintaining equilibrium even during periods of refueling outages, this paper develops a mixed-integer linear programming framework that models the subsystems and components of its nuclear steam supply system. A systematic comparative analysis of flexible versus baseload nuclear power plant operation under varying levels of renewable energy integration indicates that flexible operation enhances system profitability by more than 18% while also increasing energy storage utilization, improving reactor responsiveness to load fluctuations, and allowing for greater participation across numerous electricity markets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Reel-to-Reel Inspection Techniques for Long HTS Conductors: Comparison and Innovations

The continuous advancement of high-temperature superconductor (HTS) technologies has greatly accelerated the development and deployment of HTS applications. Among the critical tools supporting these advancements are reel-to-reel (R2R) critical current (I c ) measurement techniques, which are extensively used by both manufacturers and end users to characterize long-length REBCO conductors. These techniques play a vital role in quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC), ensuring the reliability and performance of HTS conductors and applications throughout the production cycle. We have developed a range of in-house devices for R2R measurements at the University of Houston and Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. These include one-dimensional (1D) scan using a magnetic circuit (MC) and two-dimensional (2D) magnetic field mapping systems based on scanning probe array microscope (SPAM) or scanning probe microscopy (SPM). Each technique offers distinct advantages: the MC system provides ultra-fast scanning speeds, ideal for rapid inspection in large-scale industrial production; the high-resolution SPM delivers detailed insights for conductor research and development; and the SPAM, with its simpler mechanical setup, can be upgraded for higher field and lower temperature conditions with a balanced 2D resolution. Here we compared the magnetization and detection capabilities of these techniques through experiments on rare-earth barium copper oxide (REBCO) coated conductor samples, with data analysis supported by numerical simulations. Based on our comprehensive comparative studies, we propose enhancements for each measurement system and provide guidelines for selecting the optimal technique combinations to meet specific application requirements.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗