Investigating the detection of underground nuclear explosions by radon displacement
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Burnett, Jonathan L.↗
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Measurements of Argon-39 from locations near historic underground nuclear explosions
Measurement of radioactive gas seepage from an underground nuclear explosion is one of the primary methods to confirm whether an event was nuclear in nature. Radioactive noble gas indicators that are commonly targeted by such measurements (e.g. 133Xe, 37Ar) have half-lives of 35 days or less. Argon-39, an activation product similar to 37Ar, is produced by the interaction between neutrons and potassium in the surrounding geology and has a half-life of 269 years. Measurements taken at three sites near three historic underground nuclear test locations at the Nevada National Security Site have all shown highly elevated levels of 39Ar in subsurface air decades after the test events. Elevated levels of 39Ar (30-50 times background) were also detected in atmospheric air collected roughly 30 cm above ground level near two of these sites, and outside the entrance of the one tunnel site. These measurements demonstrate that 39Ar has the potential to be a long-term signature of an underground nuclear event which can be reliably detected at the surface or in the shallow subsurface. This radionuclide detection of an underground nuclear event decades after the event takes place is in contrast to the commonly held assumption that detecting underground nuclear events via radionuclides at the surface needs to be done in a matter of months. Depending upon what further studies show about the robustness of this signature in a variety of geological settings, it may in fact be easy to detect underground nuclear events at the surface for a very long time post-detonation.
Johnson, Christine M.↗
Impulse response measurements of fast scintillator-based current mode detectors
In this study, experimental measurements were performed to characterize the impulse response of seven different gamma ray detector prototypes being considered to be fielded as a current mode diagnostic for neutron-diagnosed subcritical experiments at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). For such experiments, the impulse response of the fielded detector is required to have a full-width half-maximum (FWHM) of approximately 5 ns or less and a low amplitude tail. Each of the detector prototypes evaluated in this work were selected based on the potential to meet this performance requirement. An impulse of bremsstrahlung x-rays created from 2 MeV electrons from the NNSS’s Transformational Diagnostics and Imaging, Los Alamos, linear accelerator was measured with each detector. The measured impulse response was evaluated for each detector configuration. A comparison of these impulse responses revealed a relationship between fast timing performance and scintillator material, geometry, surface reflectivity conditions, and photomultiplier tube (PMT) selection. The detector configuration yielding an impulse response with the shortest FWHM of 3.82 ± 0.11 ns and possessing a low amplitude tail was a 5-inch (12.7-cm) diameter, 5-inch (12.7-cm) height cylindrical EJ-399-17-VI liquid scintillator in a black-painted housing coupled to an Adit D798B 5-inch (12.7-cm) PMT by means of a 0.079-inch (0.2-cm) EJ-560 optical coupling pad.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Spatially calibrating polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) as proxies of area burned by vegetation fires: Insights from comparisons of historical data and sedimentary PAH fluxes
Many regions worldwide have experienced increasing wildfire activity in recent years and climate changes are predicted to result in more frequent and severe fires. Reconstruction of past fire activity offers paleoenvironmental context for modern and future burning. Pyrogenic polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have been increasingly used as a molecular biomarker for fire occurrence in the paleorecord and offer opportunity for nuanced reconstructions of fire characteristics. A suite of PAHs are produced during combustion, and the emission amount and assemblage is influenced by many variables including fuel type, fire temperature, and oxygen availability. Despite recent advances in understanding the controls and taphonomy of these biomass burning markers, the spatial scale of this proxy is unknown. In this paper, measurements of PAH fluxes preserved in a lake sediment archive from the Sierra Nevada, California were compared with a historical geographic information system dataset of area burned up to 150 km distance from the lake to determine the spatial scales for which these biomarkers are reliable proxies of burning. Comparisons of PAH fluxes with charcoal accumulation rates in the same sediments suggest that pyrogenic particulate transport modulates low to mid-molecular weight PAHs via adsorption. Overall, the results indicate that PAH records integrate a combination of spatial signals of area burned and measurement of individual PAHs may enable cross-scale paleofire reconstructions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Wind-induced torsion of parabolic trough collectors in operation
Parabolic trough collector (PTC) systems, a type of concentrating solar power (CSP), use parabolic mirrors to reflect the sun's rays toward an absorber tube to heat the fluid inside. PTCs track the sun throughout the day and are sensitive to angular misalignment, which reduces optical performance. Torsion of the PTC, exacerbated by wind loading, contributes to angular misalignment, which has been quantified by previous studies using numerical simulations and experimental tests. However, angular misalignment due to torsion and wind loading has not yet been studied in an operational plant, which can experience more extreme and variable conditions. This study characterizes the angular misalignment due to torsion at three rows of the Nevada Solar One CSP plant and investigates the influence of wind loading. These findings reveal substantial torsion along the PTC support structure that depends on wind conditions and orientation. Strong winds perpendicular to the PTCs increase the median angular displacement of the outermost row by up to 18 mrad and increase the standard deviation by up to 8 mrad when compared to weak wind conditions. These findings can inform enhanced PTC design, controls and modeling that will improve the performance, reliability and bankability of future CSP plants.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Recent advances in computational mathematics and applications
We are honored to bring you this special issue dedicated to recent advances in computational mathematics and applications in science and engineering. The papers in this special issue were presented in ”Conference on Computational Mathematics and Applications (CCMA)” held at the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV) during October 25–27, 2019. The conference has attracted about 90 attendees from six countries. The 15 papers in the special issue comprise a diverse collection of theoretical numerical analysis as well as applications in various subjects. Topics cover optimal control of PDEs, discontinuous Galerkin methods, fluid flow in porous media, turbulence flow, static and moving interface problems, complex fluids composed by the mixture of Newtonian fluid and nematic (liquid crystal) flows, modeling of ocean–atmosphere system, image segmentation algorithm, uncertainty quantification problems for turbulence model and Maxwell’s equations, iterative solver for systems resulting from mixed methods, and novel methods for solving systems of nonlinear equations. As the Guest Editors we would like to thank Dr. Leland Jameson at NSF (National Science Foundation) for kindly supporting our conference proposal which made this conference possible. We would also like to thank Darren Sugrue from Elsevier who provided partial support for our conference, and Thennarasu Gunasekaran and his production team from Elsevier who produced this nice special issue. We are grateful to many people (Dr. Zhijian Wu, Lori Ornelas, Elsa Juarez, and many Ph.D. students) at the Department of Mathematical Sciences of UNLV who provided tremendous support for the conference. Finally, we very much appreciate all authors who contributed their precious results to this special issue.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Subsurface microbial communities as a tool for characterizing regional-scale groundwater flow
Subsurface microbial community distribution patterns are influenced by biogeochemical and groundwater fluxes and may inform hydraulic connections along groundwater-flow paths. This study examined the regional-scale microbial community of the Death Valley Regional Flow System and evaluated whether subsurface communities can be used to identify groundwater-flow paths between recharge and discharge areas. Samples were collected from 36 sites in three groundwater basins: Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley (PMOV), Ash Meadows (AM), and Alkali Flat–Furnace Creek Ranch (AFFCR). Microbial diversity within and between communities varied by location, and communities were separated into two overall groups that affiliated with the AM and PMOV/AFFCR basins. Network analysis revealed patterns between clusters of common microbes that represented groundwaters with similar geochemical conditions and largely corroborated hydraulic connections between recharge and discharge areas. Null model analyses identified deterministic and stochastic ecological processes contributing to microbial community assemblages. Most communities were more different than expected and governed by dispersal limitation, geochemical differences, or undominating processes. However, certain communities from sites located within or near the Nevada National Security Site were more similar than expected and dominated by homogeneous dispersal or selection. Overall, the (dis)similarities between the microbial communities of DVRFS recharge and discharge areas supported previously documented hydraulic connections between: (1) Spring Mountains and Ash Meadows; (2) Frenchman and Yucca Flat and Amargosa Desert; and (3) Amargosa Desert and Death Valley. However, only a portion of the flow path between Pahute Mesa and Oasis Valley could be supported by microbial community analyses, likely due to well-associated artifacts in samples from the two Oasis Valley sites. This study demonstrates the utility of combining microbial data with hydrologic, geologic, and water-chemistry information to comprehensively characterize groundwater systems, highlighting both strengths and limitations of this approach.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Role of Stratigraphy and Loading History in Generating Complex Compaction Bands in Idealized Field-Scale Settings
The Buckskin Gulch locality in Utah is a landmark example of compaction localization. The outcrop of this locality involves distinct stratigraphic heterogeneity and was exposed to complex loading history. It features multiple sets of deformation bands with different kinematics and orientation. Similar formations were seen in the Valley of Fire, Nevada, and the Orange quarry, France, among other localities. The formation of such complex structures, their propagation mechanisms, and frequency is affected by numerous local and ambient factors whose impacts are not yet fully understood. The simulation of the above-mentioned localities is not feasible because of the limited amount of available information. This work, instead, investigates from a geomechanics standpoint how the interplay among material nonlinearity, outcrop stratigraphy, and loading history interconnects with specific spatiotemporal patterns of compaction band propagation. Our study shows that the system stratigraphy can be responsible for the emergence of coexisting compaction bands with different inclination and kinematics. Specifically, we show that stiffness contrasts induce nonlocal stress changes which may favor the initiation of secondary structures with different compaction localization characteristics. Furthermore, systems of inclined compaction bands induced by burial increase display secondary, noncontemporaneous sets of vertical compaction bands under the effects of postburial shortening. Our results indicate that stages of intermediate burial decrease prior to tectonic shortening can promote the formation of such complex systems. Despite the simplifications involved in our analyses, these findings show how geomechanics computations complement field observations and could provide a mechanics-based validation of site-specific reconstruction hypothesis.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Preliminary Analysis of Source Physics Experiment Explosion-Triggered Microseismicity Using the Back-Projection Method
A series of four chemical explosions were detonated in a deep borehole within the Yucca Flat Dry Alluvium Geology (DAG) at the Nevada National Security Site between 2018 and 2019. The two larger chemical explosions of 50 tons (DAG-2) and 10 tons (DAG-4) TNT equivalent yield triggered energetic aftershock sequences numbering 1392 and 347 microearthquakes, respectively, within the first 10 days. No significant aftershock activity was observed for the two smaller 1-ton explosions (DAG-1 and DAG-3). Here, we used a back-projection method based on travel-time migration and stacking of signal-to-noise ratio traces to detect, associate and locate aftershocks from a subset of 22-geophones within a larger 2 urn:x-wiley:21699313:media:jgrb54910:jgrb54910-math-0001 2 km seismic array surrounding the borehole. The aftershocks located within 300 m of the borehole and the depths were above the working points of 300 and 50 m depths of DAG-2 and DAG-4, respectively, ruling out triggering slip on geologic faults or disturbances beneath neighboring collapse craters. DAG-2 and DAG-4 aftershocks decayed at similar rates, with power-law exponents of p = 1.48 and p = 1.49, respectively. These decay rates are comparable to aftershocks sequences triggered by earthquakes and historical nuclear explosions at Yucca Flat. A smooth power-law aftershock decay within the first 10 days suggests a triggering mechanism from explosion generated stress relaxation due to the diffusion of high gas pressures in the cavity and radial fractures. A more random and episodic aftershock rate would be expected due to cavity collapse or falling rubble in chimney formation.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Understanding Differences in California Climate Projections Produced by Dynamical and Statistical Downscaling
Abstract We compare historical and end‐of‐century temperature and precipitation patterns over California from one dynamically downscaled simulation using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model and two simulations statistically downscaled using Localized Constructed Analogs (LOCA). We uniquely separate causes of differences between dynamically and statistically based future climate projections into differences in historical climate (gridded observations versus regional climate model output) and differences in how these downscaling techniques explicitly handle future climate changes (numerical modeling versus analogs). In these methods, solutions between different downscaling techniques differ more in the future compared to the historical period. Changes projected by LOCA are insensitive to the choice of driving data. Only through dynamical downscaling can we simulate physically consistent regional springtime warming patterns across the Sierra Nevada, while the statistical simulations inherit an unphysical signal from their parent Global Climate Model (GCM) or gridded data. The results of our study clarify why these different techniques produce different outcomes and may also provide guidance on which downscaled products to use for certain impact analyses in California and perhaps other Mediterranean regimes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Bayesian Poroelastic Aquifer Characterization From InSAR Surface Deformation Data. Part I: Maximum A Posteriori Estimate
Characterizing the properties of groundwater aquifers is essential for predicting aquifer response and managing groundwater resources. In this work, we develop a high-dimensional scalable Bayesian inversion framework governed by a three-dimensional quasi-static linear poroelastic model to characterize lateral permeability variations in groundwater aquifers. In this work, we determine the maximum a posteriori (MAP) point of the posterior permeability distribution from centimeter-level surface deformation measurements obtained from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The scalability of our method to high parameter dimension is achieved through the use of adjoint-based derivatives, inexact Newton methods to determine the MAP point, and a Mat´ern class sparse prior precision operator. Together, these guarantee that the MAP point is found at a cost, measured in number of forward/adjoint poroelasticity solves, that is independent of the parameter dimension. We apply our methodology to a test case for a municipal well in Mesquite, Nevada, in which InSAR and GPS surface deformation data are available. We solve problems with up to 320,824 state variable degrees of freedom (DOFs) and 16,896 parameter DOFs. A consistent treatment of noise level is employed so that the aquifer characterization result does not depend on the pixel spacing of surface deformation data. Our results show that the use of InSAR data significantly improves characterization of lateral aquifer heterogeneity, and the InSAR-based aquifer characterization recovers complex lateral displacement trends observed by independent daily GPS measurements.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Bayesian Poroelastic Aquifer Characterization From InSAR Surface Deformation Data. 2. Quantifying the Uncertainty
Uncertainty quantification of groundwater (GW) aquifer parameters is critical for efficient management and sustainable extraction of GW resources. These uncertainties are introduced by the data, model, and prior information on the parameters. We develop a Bayesian inversion framework that uses Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) surface deformation data to infer the laterally heterogeneous permeability of a transient linear poroelastic model of a confined GW aquifer. The Bayesian solution of this inverse problem takes the form of a posterior probability density of the permeability. Exploring this posterior using classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is computationally prohibitive due to the large dimension of the discretized permeability field and the expense of solving the poroelastic forward problem. However, in many partial differential equation (PDE)-based Bayesian inversion problems, the data are only informative in a few directions in parameter space. For the poroelasticity problem, we prove this property theoretically for a one-dimensional problem and demonstrate it numerically for a three-dimensional aquifer model. Here we design a generalized preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (gpCN) MCMC method that exploits this intrinsic low dimensionality by using a low-rank-based Laplace approximation of the posterior as a proposal, which we build scalably. The feasibility of our approach is demonstrated through a real GW aquifer test in Nevada. The inherently two-dimensional nature of InSAR surface deformation data informs a sufficient number of modes of the permeability field to allow detection of major structures within the aquifer, significantly reducing the uncertainty in the pressure and the displacement quantities of interest.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A Comparison of Linear Solvers for Resolving Flow in Three-Dimensional Discrete Fracture Networks
We compare various methods for resolving steady flow within three-dimensional discrete fracture networks, including direct methods, Krylov subspace methods with and without preconditioning, and multi-grid methods. We compared the performance of the methods based on compute times and scaling of the solution as a function of the number of grid nodes and log-variance of the hydraulic aperture. The methods are applied to three test cases: (a) variable density of networks with a truncated power-law distribution of fracture lengths, (b) a fixed network composed of monodisperse fracture sizes but varied permeability/aperture heterogeneity, (c) and a network based on field site in Nevada, US. We chose these cases to allow us to study the impact of the mesh size and flow properties, as well as to demonstrate our conclusions on a large-scale, realistic problem (more than 40 million mesh nodes). A direct solution using Cholesky factorization outperformed other methods for every example but was closely followed in performance by some algebraic multigrid (AMG) preconditioned Krylov subspace methods. Among the Krylov methods, conjugate gradients (CG) with an AMG preconditioner performs the best. Generally, Cholesky factorization is recommended, but CG with an AMG preconditioner may be suitable for very large problems beyond 40 million nodes where the entire linear system cannot reside in memory.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Climate Warming Alters Nutrient Storage in Seasonally Dry Forests: Insights From a 2,300 m Elevation Gradient
Understanding potential response of forest carbon (C) and nutrient storage to warming is important for climate mitigation policies. Unfortunately, those responses are difficult to predict in seasonally dry forests, in part, because ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to both changes in temperature and precipitation. We investigated how warming might alter stocks of C, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) in vegetation and the entire regolith (soil + weathered bedrock or “saprock”) using a space-for-time substitution along a bioclimatic gradient in the Sierra Nevada, California. The pine-oak and mixed-conifer forests between 1,160–2,015 m elevation have more optimal climates (not too dry or hot) for ecosystem productivity, soil weathering, and cycling of essential elements than the oak savannah (405 m) and subalpine forest (2,700 m). We found decreases in overstory vegetation nutrient stocks with decreasing elevation because of enhanced water limitation and greater occurrence of disturbances. Stocks of C, N, and P in the entire regolith peaked at the pine-oak and mixed-conifer forests across the bioclimatic gradient, driven by thicker regolith profiles and greater nutrient input rates. These observations suggest long-term warming will decrease ecosystem nutrient storage at the warmer, transitional pine-oak zone, but will increase nutrient storage at the colder, subalpine zone. Assuming steady-state conditions, we found the mean residence time of ecosystem C decreased with projected rising air temperatures and increased following a major drought event across the bioclimatic gradient. Our study emphasizes potentially elevation-dependent changes in nutrient storage and C persistence with warming in seasonally dry forests.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
A >200 ka U-Th Based Chronology From Lacustrine Evaporites, Searles Lake, CA
Well-dated lacustrine records are essential to establish the timing and drivers of regional hydroclimate change. Searles Basin, California, records the depositional history of a fluctuating saline-alkaline lake in the terminal basin of the Owens River system draining the eastern Sierra Nevada. Here, we establish a U-Th chronology for the ~76-m-long SLAPP-SLRS17 core collected in 2017 based on dating of evaporite minerals. Ninety-eight dated samples comprising nine different minerals were evaluated based on stratigraphic, mineralogic, textural, chemical, and reproducibility criteria. After the application of these criteria, a total of 37 dated samples remained as constraints for the age model. A lack of dateable minerals between 145 and 110 ka left the age model unconstrained over the penultimate glacial termination (Termination II). We thus established a tie point between plant wax δD values in the core and a nearby speleothem δ 18 O record at the beginning of the Last Interglacial. We construct a Bayesian age model allowing stratigraphy to inform sedimentation rate inflections. We find that the >210 ka SLAPP-SRLS17 record contains five major units that correspond with prior work. The new dating is broadly consistent with previous efforts but provides more precise age estimates and enables a detailed evaluation of evaporite depositional history. We also offer a substantial revision of the age of the Bottom Mud-Mixed Layer contact, shifting it from ~130 ka to 178 ± 3 ka. The new U-Th chronology documents the timing of mud and salt layers and lays the foundation for climate reconstructions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Causes of Missing Snowmelt Following Drought
Abstract Water management in snowy mountainous regions hinges on forecasting snowmelt runoff. However, droughts are altering snowpack‐runoff relationships with ongoing debate about the driving mechanisms. For example, in 2021 in California, less than half of predicted streamflow arrived. Mechanisms proposed for this “missing” streamflow included changes in evapotranspiration ( ET ), rainfall, and subsurface moisture conditions. Here, we demonstrate that ET in drought years generates dry subsurface conditions that reduce runoff in subsequent years. A model including this legacy of depleted moisture storage reduced median error in 2021 forecasts from 60% to 20% at 15 minimally disturbed basins and from 18% to 2% at 6 water supply basins in the Sierra Nevada (basins range in area from 5 to 23,051 km 2 and mean annual precipitation from 814 to 1,549 mm). Our findings indicate that the relationship between snowpack and runoff will evolve as plant ecosystems respond to climate change and alter subsurface water storage dynamics.
Lapides, Dana A.↗
Comparisons Between Array Derived Dynamic Strain Rate (ADDS) and Fiber‐Optic Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) Strain Rate
Abstract Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) strain rate and particle velocity can be compared through approximate scaling with medium velocity. We instead performed a direct comparison between array derived dynamic strain (ADDS) rate and DAS strain rate for six frequency bands. The PoroTomo project at Brady's Hot Springs, Nevada, deployed a 240‐geophone 3C array co‐located with fiber‐optic DAS system and 8.7 km of buried cable. We selected subsets of the geophone array to create four smaller arrays and computed ADDS. The horizontal components of the ADDS were rotated into the direction of the fiber‐optic cable and then compared with the observed DAS strain rates. From three example regional earthquakes of local magnitudes 2.9, 4.1, and 4.3, the ADDS are found to be coherent with DAS for frequencies ≤1 Hz. For frequencies >1‐Hz, this correlation decays quickly. Small differences between linear and areal dynamic strains at 1‐Hz suggest poor signal‐to‐noise or localized strain that is perturbed by shallow heterogeneities compare to the average strain propagating across the geophone array. The implication is that around 1‐Hz, straight fiber DAS is measuring axial strain along the fiber and can provide good approximations to translational particle motions. However, above 1‐Hz, DAS becomes more sensitive to shallow velocity gradients that can be beneficial for geophysical imaging yet becomes a limitation for traditional seismic analysis methods depending on absolute amplitude and phase from translational particle motions.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Shallow Soil Response to a Buried Chemical Explosion With Geophones and Distributed Acoustic Sensing
Abstract Shallow sediments can respond non‐linearly to large dynamic strains and undergo a subsequent healing phase as the material gradually recovers following the passing of seismic waves. This study focuses on the physical changes in the subsurface caused by the shaking from a buried chemical explosion detonated in a borehole in Nevada, USA, as a part of the Source Physics Experiment Phase II. The explosion damaged the shallow subsurface and modified the frequency content recorded by 491 geophones and 2240 Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) channels within 2.5 km from surface ground zero. We observe a gradual shift of resonance frequencies in the 10–25 Hz frequency band in the hours following the explosion and develop a method to characterize the related logarithm‐type healing process of the shallow (i.e., upper ∼25 m) subsurface. We find that stronger levels of ground motion increase the relative degree of damage and duration of the subsurface healing; with the spall region exhibiting the largest degree of damage and longest healing recovery time. We observe coherent spatial patterns of damage with the region located to the southeast of the explosion exhibiting more damage than the southwest region. This study demonstrates that both DAS and co‐located geophones capture similar temporal changes associated with the physical processes occurring in the subsurface, with the high‐density sampling of DAS measurements enabling a new capability to monitor the fine‐scale changes of the Earth's shallow subsurface following the detonation of a buried explosion.
Viens, Loïc↗