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DOE OSTI2021

Conditioned Simulation of Ground-Motion Time Series at Uninstrumented Sites Using Gaussian Process Regression

Ground-motion time series are essential input data in seismic analysis and performance assessment of the built environment. Because instruments to record free-field ground motions are generally sparse, methods are needed to estimate motions at locations with no available ground-motion recording instrumentation. In this study, given a set of observed motions, ground-motion time series at target sites are constructed using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) approach, which treats the real and imaginary parts of the Fourier spectrum as random Gaussian variables. Model training, verification, and applicability studies are carried out using the physics-based simulated ground motions of the 1906 Mw 7.9 San Francisco earthquake and Mw 7.0 Hayward fault scenario earthquake in northern California. Additionally, the method’s performance is further evaluated using the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake ground motions recorded by the Community Seismic Network stations located in southern California. These evaluations indicate that the trained GPR model is able to adequately estimate the ground-motion time series for frequency ranges that are pertinent for most earthquake engineering applications. The trained GPR model exhibits proper performance in predicting the long-period content of the ground motions as well as directivity pulses.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Locus Algorithm IV: Performance metrics of a grid computing system used to create catalogues of optimised pointings

This paper discusses the requirements for and performance metrics of the the Grid Computing system used to implement the Locus Algorithm to identify optimum pointings for differential photometry of 61,662,376 stars and 23,779 quasars. Initial operational tests indicated a need for a software system to analyse the data and a High Performance Computing system to run that software in a scalable manner. Practical assessments of the performance of the software in a serial computing environment were used to provide a benchmark against which the performance metrics of the HPC solution could be compared, as well as to indicate any bottlenecks in performance. These performance metrics indicated a distinct split in the performance dictated more by differences in the input data than by differences in the design of the systems used. This indicates a need for experimental analysis of system performance, and suggests that algorithmic complexity analyses may lead to incorrect or naive conclusions, especially in systems with high data I/O overhead such as grid computing. Further, it implies that systems which reduce or eliminate this bottleneck such as in-memory processing could lead to a substantial increase in performance.

Creaner, Oisín↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stability Analysis of Interface Conditions for Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling

In this paper, we analyze the stability of different coupling strategies for multidomain PDEs that arise in general circulation models used in climate simulations. We focus on fully coupled ocean–atmosphere models that are needed to represent and understand the complicated interactions of these two systems, becoming increasingly important in climate change assessment in recent years. Numerical stability issues typically arise because of different time-stepping strategies applied to the coupled PDE system. In particular, the contributing factors include using large time steps, lack of accurate interface flux, and single-iteration coupling. We investigate the stability of the coupled ocean–atmosphere models for various interface conditions such as the Dirichlet–Neumann condition and the bulk interface condition, which is unique to climate modeling. By analyzing a simplified model, we demonstrate here how the parameterization of the bulk condition and other numerical and physical parameters affect the coupling stability and establish stability conditions for different coupling strategies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

A two-stage optical fusion framework for wildfire severity mapping across the conterminous United States

Accurate wildfire severity mapping (WSM) is essential for post-fire recovery planning, erosion risk assessment, ecosystem monitoring, and disaster risk reduction. Although Landsat and Sentinel optical imagery have been widely used for burn severity assessment, the added value of fusing multiple optical sensors has not been sufficiently quantified across diverse fire events, particularly since the launch of Landsat-9. This study evaluates whether multisensor optical fusion improves wildfire severity mapping relative to single-sensor baselines using Sentinel-2, Landsat-8, and Landsat-9 imagery across 40 wildfire events in the conterminous United States. We tested a two-stage fusion framework that combines feature-level fusion with pixel-level dimensionality reduction. First, feature-level fused datasets were created through early fusion by combining standardized post-fire bands from each sensor into a single predictor stack. Both raw reflectance bands and pairwise spectral transforms were retained to capture within- and cross-sensor spectral interactions. Second, Linear Discriminant Analysis was applied to both single-sensor and fused datasets to produce comparable low-dimensional feature spaces. Six machine-learning classifiers were then used to benchmark model performance with repeated spatially buffered train–test splits. Results show that Landsat-9 was the strongest single-sensor baseline. Among the fusion strategies, Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 produced the most consistent improvement and reduced performance variability. Landscape-condition analysis further showed that this fusion was most beneficial in shrubland-dominated and high-terrain fires, where it achieved the highest overall mean accuracy and the fewest failures. In contrast, its benefits were less reliable in evergreen forests, mixed vegetation, and low- to moderate-elevation terrain. In operational settings, the Sentinel-2 + Landsat-9 configuration offers a practical solution for post-fire recovery planning, erosion-risk assessment, watershed management, and ecological monitoring when field observations are available and timely satellite-based information is needed.

Landsat↗

DOE OSTI2022

Molecular simulation of lignin-related aromatic compound permeation through gram-negative bacterial outer membranes

Lignin, an abundant aromatic heteropolymer in secondary plant cell walls, is the single largest source of renewable aromatics in the biosphere. Leveraging this resource for renewable bioproducts through targeted microbial action depends on lignin fragment uptake by microbial hosts and subsequent enzymatic action to obtain the desired product. Recent computational work has emphasized that bacterial inner membranes are permeable to many aromatic compounds expected from lignin depolymerization processes. In this study, we expand on these findings through simulations for 42 lignin-related compounds across a gram-negative bacterial outer membrane model. Unbiased simulation trajectories indicate that spontaneous crossing for the full outer membrane is relatively rare at molecular simulation timescales, primarily due to preferential membrane partitioning and slow diffusion within the lipopolysaccharide layer within the outer membrane. Membrane partitioning and permeability coefficients were determined through replica exchange umbrella sampling simulations to overcome sampling limitations. We find that the glycosylated lipopolysaccharides found in the outer membrane increase the permeation barrier to many lignin-related compounds, particularly the most hydrophobic compounds. However, the effect is relatively modest; at industrially relevant concentrations, uncharged lignin-related compounds will readily diffuse across the outer membrane without the need for specific porins. Together, our results provide insight into the permeability of the bacterial outer membrane for assessing lignin fragment uptake and the future production of renewable bioproducts.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Characterizing How Meteorological Forcing Selection and Parameter Uncertainty Influence Community Land Model Version 5 Hydrological Applications in the United States

Despite the increasing use of large-scale Land Surface Models (LSMs) in predicting hydrological responses in extreme conditions, there's a critical gap in understanding the uncertainties in these predictions. This study addresses this gap through a detailed diagnostic evaluation of the uncertainties arising from meteorological forcing selection and model parametrization in hydrological simulations of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5). CLM5 is configured at a spatial scale of about 12-km to simulate runoff processes for 464 headwater watersheds, selected from the Catchment Attributes for Large-Sample Studies (CAMELS) dataset to be representative of physiographic and climatic gradients across the conterminous United States. For each watershed, CLM5 is driven by five commonly used gridded forcing datasets in combination with a large ensemble (> 1200) of key CLM5 hydrologic parameters. Our results suggest that uncertainty in CLM5 runoff simulations resulting from both forcing and parametric sources is markedly higher in arid regions, e.g., Great Plains and Midwest regions. Uncertainty in low flow is dominated by parametric uncertainty, while the selection of meteorological forcing contributes more dominantly to high flow and seasonal flows during fall and spring. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of forcing datasets and the metrics used to calibrate CLM5 significantly impact the model’s predictive accuracy in extreme event severity for both floods and droughts. Overall, the results from this study highlight the need to understand and account for forcing and parametric uncertainties in CLM5 simulations, particularly for hazard and risk assessments addressing hydrologic extremes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Chemical templates of the Central Molecular Zone

Context . The Central Molecular Zone (CMZ) of the Milky Way exhibits extreme conditions, including high gas densities, elevated temperatures, enhanced cosmic-ray ionization rates, and large-scale dynamics. This makes it a perfect laboratory for astrochemical studies. With large-scale molecular surveys revealing increasing chemical and physical complexity in the CMZ, it is essential to develop robust methods to decode the chemical information embedded in this extreme region. Aims . A key step to interpreting the molecular richness found in the CMZ is building chemical templates tailored to its diverse conditions. In particular, understanding how CMZ environments affect shock and protostellar chemistry is crucial. The combined impact of high ionization, elevated temperatures, and dense gas remains insufficiently explored for observable tracers. Methods . For this study, we utilized UCLCHEM , a gas-grain time-dependent chemical model, to link physical conditions with their corresponding molecular signatures and identify key tracers of temperature, density, ionization, and shock activity. To achieve this, we ran a grid of models of shocks and protostellar objects representative of typical CMZ conditions, focusing on 24 species, including complex organic molecules. Results . Shocked and protostellar environments show distinct evolutionary timescales (≲10 4 vs. ≳10 4 years); 300 K emerges as a key temperature threshold for chemical differentiation. We find that cosmic-ray ionization and temperature are the main drivers of chemical trends. HCO + , H 2 CO, and CH 3 SH trace ionization, while HCO, HCO + , CH 3 SH, CH 3 NCO, and HCOOCH 3 show consistent abundance contrasts between shocks and protostellar regions over similar temperature ranges. Conclusions . We characterized the behavior of 24 species in protostellar and shock-related environments. While our models underpredict some complex organics in shocks, they reproduce observed trends for most species, supporting scenarios involving a need for recurring shocks in Galactic Center clouds and enhanced ionization toward Sgr B2(N2). Future work should assess the role of shock recurrence and metallicity in shaping chemistry.

Galaxy: center↗

DOE OSTI2023

Alpha-heating analysis of burning plasma and ignition experiments on the National Ignition Facility

A recent experiment conducted on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) described in the study by Abu-Shawareb et al. achieved a fusion yield output of 1.3 MJ from ~ 220 kJ of x-ray energy absorbed by the capsule, demonstrating remarkable progress in the field of laser driven inertial confinement fusion. In the study by A. R. Christopherson [“Effects of charged particle heating on the hydrodynamics of inertially confined plasmas,” Ph.D. thesis (2020)], the plasma conditions needed to claim the onset of ignition and burn propagation were outlined and multiple criterion were provided to assess progress in inertial fusion experiments. In this work, we modify the metrics from A. R. Christopherson to accurately calculate performance metrics for indirect-drive experiments on the NIF. We also show that performance metric trends observed in NIF data are consistent with theory and simulations. This analysis indicates that all the identified criterion for ignition and burn propagation have been exceeded by experiment 210 808.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Air-to-Liquid Heat Exchanger Fabricated Using Deposition-Based Additive Manufacturing Processes

Abstract This work describes the use of deposition-based additive manufacturing (AM) techniques to fabricate air-cooled, two-fluid heat exchangers. The project focused on a Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning application and used an industry-standard copper/aluminum heat exchanger manufactured with conventional technology as the basis for assessing performance. The manufacturing constraints associated with using deposition-based AM technology for this application include the need for a continuous tool path within each build layer that allows uninterrupted extrusion and therefore defect-free water channel walls that correspond to a reliably leak-tight heat exchanger. A geometry that respects these constraints was developed, simulated, optimized and finally manufactured and tested. The material used was a composite of polymer filled with conductive flakes in order to provide high conductivity in the direction that heat must flow in this heat exchanger, across the wall separating the fluids. The measured performance for several test coupons matched the predicted performance and the test coupons exhibited performance that approach and in some cases exceeds conventional technology

Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2021

Testing to Evaluate Processes Expected to Occur during MSR Salt Spill Accidents

Obtaining a license for a new nuclear reactor requires the identification and assessment of the potential consequences of specified accident scenarios, which are achieved using accident progression models. Those models need to be parameterized and validated using experimental data, but existing experimental data addressing processes relevant to molten salt reactor accidents are sparse. Specifically, experimental data that quantify the sensitives of important processes to the initial conditions of the spill, the ambient environment, and the containment features are needed to parameterize individual process models. Integrated experiments that simulate accident scenarios are also needed to provide data for model validation, but these experiments will require the use of proven methods to quantify the processes under evaluation. The overarching objectives of this work are to develop the methods for simulating the targeted processes, to determine the effectiveness of the methods in producing the data required for model development, to generate data that can be used to parameterize individual process models, and to provide key insights into the behavior of spilled molten salt that should be considered in models. Experimental methods were designed to quantify aspects of individual processes expected to occur during or after a molten salt spill accident that will affect the fate of spilled molten salt and the radionuclides within. These processes include 1) molten salt spreading and heat transfer, 2) molten salt flowing and freezing in tubing, 3) stainless steel corrosion kinetics in molten salt, and 4) molten salt splashing and aerosol generation. The initial tests described in this report were conducted using eutectic FLiNaK to demonstrate the test methods, the data that are generated, and the analyses of the data to derive values needed for modeling. The primary variables that were tested include initial salt temperature and the presence of volatile surrogate fission products (e.g., cesium and iodine). The developed methods are shown to be effective in quantifying the desired processes and can be applied to study more complex salt compositions of interest to molten salt reactor developers, a wide range of environmental conditions of interest to modelers, and additional variables relevant to salt spill accidents. The developed methods and insights gained from laboratory tests can also be incorporated in future large-scale integrated tests used to simulate molten salt spill accidents.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparison of Tritium Dose Calculations from MACCS, UFOTRI, and ETMOD

Tritium exhibits unique environmental behavior because of its potential interactions with water and organic substances. Modeling the environmental consequences of tritium releases can be relatively complex and thus an evaluation of MACCS is needed to understand what updates, if any, are needed in MACCS to account for the behavior of tritium. We examine documented tritium releases and previous benchmarking assessments to perform a model intercomparison between MACCS and state-of-practice tritium-specific codes UFOTRI and ETMOD to quantify the difference between MACCS and state of practice models for assessing tritium consequences. Additionally, information to assist an analyst in judging whether a postulated tritium release is likely to lead to significant doses is provided.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimate of Gamma Dose Rates from Arrays of Fermi-1 Blanket Elements During the MEDE Process

The Enrico Fermi Atomic Power Plant Unit 1 (Fermi-1) was a sodium-cooled fast breeder reactor located in Monroe County, Michigan. The reactor was powered by a core of enriched uranium metal alloy driver fuel, which was enveloped by an axial and radial blanket material consisting of depleted uranium metal alloyed with 3 wt.% molybdenum. There are 406 axial and 559 radial irradiated sodium-bonded Fermi-1 blanket assemblies in storage at INL, totaling 34 metric tons of heavy metal. Disposal of the Fermi-1 blanket material directly into a geological repository is prohibited due to the reactive characteristic of its bond sodium. A melt drain evaporate (MEDE) process can effectively remove bond sodium from Fermi-1 blanket material. Consequently, planning is underway to apply a MEDE process to treat the 34 metric tons of heavy metal of irradiated Fermi-1 blanket material. Given the irradiated Fermi-1 blanket material’s relatively low power history and 50+ years of decay, it can be treated in a shielded glovebox. To assess the requisite shielding, the dose rates of the Fermi-1 blanket elements in various process configurations are needed. The method to perform the dose rate calculations is to first generate an average source term and associated photon source spectra for the Fermi-1 blanket material in SCALE and then use the associated photon spectra to calculate dose rates using MCNP6.2 in seven representative geometries. Dose rates in rem/h were calculated on contact (1 cm from outer geometry surface), 30 cm away from outer geometry surface, and 1 m from outer geometry surface at axial heights spanning the length of the blanket material within the geometry. The maximum average dose rate for the single Fermi-1 radial blanket element is ~0.60 rem/h, for the Fermi-1 radial blanket assembly ~1.10 rem/h, for the single Fermi-1 axial blanket element ~0.5 rem/h, for the Fermi-1 axial blanket assembly ~1.01 rem/h, for the MEDE can ~ 0.98 rem/h, for the Fermi Storage Canister ~ 0.83 rem/h, and for the MEDE cans in the DOE Standard Canister ~0.51 rem/h. Based on these maximum average values, the bounding dose rates are assumed to be 3× the average dose rates calculated for the axial blanket material and 7.6× the average dose rates calculated for the radial blanket material, based on the distribution of Fermi-1 blanket material assembly burnup.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2023

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F2-Salt Final Report

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

Report on New and Upgraded National User Facilities in Basic Energy Sciences

On December 1, 2023, the Director of the of the Office of Science (SC) charged all the Department of Energy Office of Science Federal Advisory Committees to respond to look toward the scientific horizon and identify what new or upgraded facilities will best serve the SC community needs in the next ten years (2024-2034). This report by the Basic Energy Sciences Advisory Committee (BESAC) assess facilities for the Basic Energy Sciences (BES) program.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Report of the FESAC Facilities Construction Projects Subcommittee

On December 1, 2023, the Director of the of the Office of Science (SC) charged all the Department of Energy Office of Science Federal Advisory Committees to respond to look toward the scientific horizon and identify what new or upgraded facilities will best serve the SC community needs in the next ten years (2024-2034). This report by the Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee (FESAC) assess facilities for the Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) program.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

HEPAP Facilities Subpanel Report

On December 1, 2023, the Director of the of the Office of Science (SC) charged all the Department of Energy Office of Science Federal Advisory Committees to respond to look toward the scientific horizon and identify what new or upgraded facilities will best serve the SC community needs in the next ten years (2024-2034). This report by the High Energy Physics Advisory Panel (HEPAP) assess facilities for the High Energy Physics (HEP) program.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

DECOVALEX-2023: Task F2 Salt Final Report

The subject of Task F of DECOVALEX-2023 concerns performance assessment modelling of radioactive waste disposal in deep mined repositories. The primary objectives of Task F are to build confidence in the models, methods, and software used for performance assessment (PA) of deep geologic nuclear waste repositories, and/or to bring to the fore additional research and development needed to improve PA methodologies. In Task F2- (salt), these objectives have been accomplished through staged development and comparison of the models and methods used by participating teams in their PA frameworks. Coupled-process submodels and deterministic simulations of the entire PA model for a reference scenario for waste disposal in domal salt have been conducted. The task specification has been updated continuously since the initiation of the project to reflect the staged development of the conceptual repository model and performance metrics. Thermal, hydrological, mechanical, and chemical properties of individual components of the engineered and natural system were chosen for relevance by participating teams. The salt reference case system was characterized using data and measurements collected at relevant underground research laboratories (URLs), field sites, and simulation results from teams with specialized modelling capability. Participating teams made a wide range of model assumptions from compartmentalized networks to full 3D models of the salt formation. No single contributed model includes full-fidelity representation of all the features, events, and processes (FEPs) detailed in the task specification, but almost all features and processes are represented in at least one model. Despite differences in the modelling strategies developed by participating teams, all models indicate that salt compaction and radionuclide diffusion are key processes in the repository, and for the FEPs and model scenario considered, little of the disposed radionuclides will migrate beyond the repository seal over the 100,000 year simulations. In general, the model output quantities have the largest differences over the short term and near the waste. The models tend to be more similar further from waste and at later time. Disparities between the models are believed to be due to differing simplifications from the task specification, some of which are chosen simplifications to reduce complexity, and some are restrictions imposed by the modelling tools. A second round of this task has been accepted for DECOVALEX-2027 in conjunction with Task F1 on crystalline PA modelling. The future round includes waste package heating, improved modelling of salt creep closure, additional comparisons of coupled-process sub-models, and the impact of repository engineering design on radionuclide migration in the repository. Participants will also propose and finalize a set of uncertain inputs for the reference case simulations, propagate these uncertainties in a set of realizations, and conduct sensitivity analyses on the simulation results.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

On the characterization of biases arising from methods and approximations used for sensitivity analyses

The preliminary assessment of the performance and safety of advanced reactors, as well as the identification of research and development needs, rely on computer simulations due to the lack of operational experience. Those simulations should be based on verified and validated computational tools, calculation schemes, and nuclear data libraries, and should be accompanied of a proper characterization of the involved uncertainties, providing confidence in the computational-based predictions. Thus, sensitivity and uncertainty studies, together with integral experiments, play an essential role in that process. Sensitivities are then a critical element and guidelines about how to produce accurate enough sensitivities depending on the subsequent analyses to be performed are of interest. The present study addresses the sensitivities biases arising from the use of different nuclear data libraries, computational methods and the assumption of modelling simplifications. Not only sensitivities for multiplication factor but also for safety-relevant reactivity responses have been analyzed. In the study, propagated uncertainties are also included for the considered parameters to illustrate the impact of the sensitivity profiles obtained for each case on the final uncertainty. Then, relevant recommendations are given for sensitivity analyses of highly complex systems. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗