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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Global Influence of Organic Aerosol Volatility on Aerosol Microphysical Processes: Composition and Number

We present MATRIX-VBS, a new aerosol scheme that simulates organic partitioning in an aerosol microphysics model, as part of the NASA GISS ModelE Earth System Model. MATRIX-VBS builds on its predecessor aerosol microphysics model MATRIX (Bauer et al., 2008, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-6003-2008) and was developed in the box model framework (Gao et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-751-2017). The scheme features the inclusion of organic partitioning between the gas and particle phases and the photochemical aging process using the volatility-basis set (Donahue et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1021/es052297c). To assess the performance of the new model, we compared its mass concentration, number concentration, and activated number concentration to the original scheme MATRIX, and evaluated its mass concentrations in four seasons against data from the NASA Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) aircraft campaign. Results from MATRIX-VBS show that organics are transported further away from their source, and their mass concentration increases aloft and decreases at the surface compared to those in MATRIX. The mass concentration of organics at the surface agrees well with measurements, and there are discrepancies for vertical profiles aloft. In the new scheme, the global mass load of organic aerosols increased by 50%, there is also an increased number of particles at the surface and fewer activated ones in most regions. The new scheme presents advanced and more comprehensive capability in simulating aerosol processes.

aerosol modeling↗
NASA NTRS2022

A Dynamic Landslide Hazard Monitoring Framework for the Lower Mekong Region

The Lower Mekong region is one of the most landslide-prone areas of the world. Despite the need for dynamic characterization of landslide hazard zones within the region, it is largely understudied for several reasons. Dynamic and integrated understanding of landslide processes requires landslide inventories across the region, which have not been available previously. Computational limitations also hamper regional landslide hazard assessment, including accessing and processing remotely sensed information. Finally, open-source software and modelling packages are required to address regional landslide hazard analysis. Leveraging an open-source data-driven global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness model framework, this study develops a region-specific dynamic landslide hazard system leveraging satellite-based Earth observation data to assess landslide hazards across the lower Mekong region. A set of landslide inventories were prepared from high-resolution optical imagery using advanced image-processing techniques. Several static and dynamic explanatory variables (i.e., rainfall, soil moisture, slope, relief, distance to roads, distance to faults, distance to rivers) were considered during the model development phase. An extreme gradient boosting decision tree model was trained for the monsoon period of 2015–2019 and the model was evaluated with independent inventory information for the 2020 monsoon period. The model performance demonstrated considerable skill using receiver operating characteristic curve statistics, with Area Under the Curve values exceeding 0.95. The model architecture was designed to use near-real-time data, and it can be implemented in a cloud computing environment (i.e., Google Cloud Platform) for the routine assessment of landslide hazards in the Lower Mekong region. This work was developed in collaboration with scientists at the Asian Disaster Preparedness Center as part of the NASA SERVIR Program’s Mekong hub. The goal of this work is to develop a suite of tools and services on accessible open-source platforms that support and enable stakeholder communities to better assess landslide hazard and exposure at local to regional scales for decision making and planning.

Nishan Kumar Biswas↗
DOE OSTI2026

A PRACTICAL ELECTRODIALYSIS MODEL FOR ACCELERATING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

Empirical optimization of electrodialysis (ED) is dependent on repetitive experiments with incremental adjustments, which is cost prohibitive at scale. While models can reduce the costs associated with optimization and scale-up, existing ED models are limited in application to specific use cases and tend to be developed for the exploration of specific transport phenomena. The field requires a practical system-level model, generalized for the broad range of ED systems. This work presents a modeling framework that enables rapid evaluation of membrane stack design, flow configuration, scale, and operational inputs. Across applications spanning 1 L to 5400 L; use of conventional and bipolar membranes; operation in continuous, batch and fed-batch modes; and feedstocks including seawater, brine, wastewater, and manure hydrolysate, the model achieves a mean R2 of 0.978 for concentration-time profiles and links design choices to techno-economic trade-offs, enabling cost-aware prioritization of system configurations.

Bipolar Membrane↗
DOE OSTI2020

Food security under high bioenergy demand toward long-term climate goals

Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in the achievement of stringent climate-change mitigation targets requiring the application of negative emissions technology. Using a multi-model framework, we assess the effects of high bioenergy demand on global food production, food security, and competition for agricultural land. Various scenarios simulate global bioenergy demands of 100, 200, 300, and 400 exajoules (EJ) by 2100, with and without a carbon price. Six global energy-economy-agriculture models contribute to this study, with different methodologies and technologies used for bioenergy supply and greenhouse-gas mitigation options for agriculture. We find that the large-scale use of bioenergy, if not implemented properly, would raise food prices and increase the number of people at risk of hunger in many areas of the world. For example, an increase in global bioenergy demand from 200 to 300 EJ causes a -11% to +40% change in food crop prices and decreases food consumption from -45 to -2 kcal person -1 day -1 , leading to an additional 0 to 25 million people at risk of hunger compared with the case of no bioenergy demand (90th percentile range across models). This risk does not rule out the intensive use of bioenergy but shows the importance of its careful implementation, potentially including regulations that protect cropland for food production or for the use of bioenergy feedstock on land that is not competitive with food production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Applying machine learning and quantum chemistry to predict the glass transition temperatures of polymers

Glass transition temperature (T g ) is important for understanding the physical and mechanical properties of a polymer material because it relates to the thermal energy required to transition between a hard glassy state and a soft rubbery one. Over the years, various models have been developed for predicting this thermal property from molecular structure to aid in designing novel polymers in selected classes. This work builds on those efforts by utilizing both machine learning (ML) and quantum chemistry (QC) techniques to develop models that can predict T g values from the molecular structure under different data availability scenarios and for a wide variety of polymer types. For the ML model, a graph convolutional network (GCN) was used to map topological polymer features; this model was trained against a dataset of more than 7500 T g values and resulted in a root mean square error (RMSE) of 38.1 °C. The QC-based regression model was trained on 83 T g values and produced an RMSE of 34.5 °C. In conclusion, this work demonstrated that while both model techniques produce accurate predictions and are suitable for different data availability scenarios, the QC-based regression model offered a more interpretable model framework with significantly less training data.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind and Turbulence Predictions With Mesoscale‐Coupled Large Eddy Simulations Using Ensemble Machine Learning

Abstract Coupling between mesoscale models and large‐eddy simulation (LES) models is increasingly used to more realistically represent the wide range of scales of atmospheric motions affecting boundary layer winds and turbulence that need to be simulated accurately for applications such as wind energy. However, such mesoscale‐to‐microscale coupled modeling frameworks are potentially affected by a large number of uncertain closure parameters. Here, we investigate the sensitivity associated with six closure parameters related to a 1.5‐order subgrid‐scale turbulence closure for an ensemble of mesoscale‐coupled LES. The simulations are performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting model nested from horizontal resolutions of greater than a kilometer down to tens of meters. Closure parameters are varied to generate perturbed parameter ensembles for two case studies of highly sheared, convective boundary layers observed in the Columbia Basin of Oregon and Washington during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project. Machine learning algorithms are used to explore the sensitivity of LES predictions, considering the effects of the perturbed physical parameters alongside categorical factors such as the case study identity, measurement location, and LES resolution. For the conditions we examine, a single parameter, the eddy viscosity coefficient, is the dominant source of parametric sensitivity and its importance is comparable to the categorical factors for several of the simulation response variables we examine.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling for enhancing the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands

There is a lack of an urban building energy modeling framework that considers the influence of surrounding buildings and local urban climate on building thermal performance. This can lead to inaccurate results since the thermal performance of individual buildings is heavily influenced by their surrounding built and climatic environment. This study establishes an interactive indoor-outdoor building energy modeling method to enhance the predictions of urban microclimates and building energy demands by coupling an urban physics model with a physics-based building energy model. Validation of the interactive coupling scheme uses field measurement datasets. Parametric simulation and analysis are conducted to understand the influence of the roof-to-canyon width ratio, canyon orientation, and ground vegetation fraction on canyon temperature, building energy consumption, and energy demand. Furthermore, the impacts of building energy model complexity (e.g., detailed vs. simplified building models) and coupling approaches on canyon temperature and building energy profiles are demonstrated using two case study buildings. In comparison with the one-way coupling approach, cooling energy consumption predicted with the dynamic two-way coupling approach varies by 3.5% and 0.5% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively, and peak cooling demand varies by 8.4% and 7.0% for the detailed medium office building model and high-rise building model, respectively. Here this study also suggests that adopting a complex two-way coupling approach with environmental data exchange at various elevations is necessary for modeling tall buildings at the urban scale.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Terrestrial carbon dynamics in an era of increasing wildfire

In an increasingly flammable world, wildfire is altering the terrestrial carbon balance. However, the degree to which novel wildfire regimes disrupt biological function remains unclear. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of above and below ground processes that govern carbon loss and recovery across diverse ecosystems. In this study, we find that intensifying wildfire regimes are increasingly exceeding biological thresholds of resilience, causing ecosystems to convert to a lower carbon-carrying capacity. Growing evidence suggests that plants compensate for fire damage by allocating carbon below ground to access nutrients released by fire, while wildfire selects for microbial communities with rapid growth rates and the ability to metabolize pyrolyzed carbon. Determining controls on carbon dynamics following wildfire requires integration of experimental and modeling frameworks across scales and ecosystems. Fire severity is expected to increase as a result of warming. This will potentially amplify climate change due to its impact on the carbon cycle. This Review discusses ecosystem carbon loss and recovery following wildfire, and highlights where further work is needed to inform model predictions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model

Tropical cyclones (TCs) alter upper-ocean temperature and influence ocean heat content via enhanced turbulent mixing. A better understanding of the role of TCs within the climate system requires a fully coupled modeling framework, where TC-induced ocean responses feed back to the atmosphere and subsequently to the climate mean state and variability. Here, we investigate the impacts of TC wind forcing on the global ocean and the associated feedbacks within the climate system using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model version 1.3 (CESM1.3). Using the low-resolution version of CESM1.3 (1° atmosphere and ocean grid spacing) with no intrinsic TCs, we conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments by inserting TC winds extracted from a high-resolution (0.25° atmosphere grid spacing) TC-permitting simulation into the low-resolution model. Results from the low-resolution TC experiment are compared to a low-resolution control simulation to diagnose TCs’ impact. We found that the added TC winds can increase ocean heat content by affecting ocean vertical mixing, air–sea enthalpy fluxes, and cloud amount. Here, the added TCs can influence mean SST, precipitation, ocean subsurface temperature, and ocean mixed layer depth. We found a strengthening of the wind-driven subtropical cells and a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation due to the changes of surface buoyancy fluxes. TCs in the model cause anomalous equatorward ocean heat convergence in the deep tropics and an increase of poleward ocean heat transport out of the subtropics. Our modeling results provide new insights into the multiscale interactions between TCs and the coupled climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Bioreactor Optimization through Multi-Phase Flow Models (CRADA Final Report)

Chemical manufacturing uses 29% of energy in the United States and produces 925 million metric tons of CO2 annually. Biomanufacturing offers the potential to leverage America’s rich agricultural resources to produce critical chemicals such as lubricants, pharmaceutical precursors, and components of energetic materials that today are sourced extensively from overseas. The bioreactors used in biomanufacturing applications, such as one developed by Capra Biosciences, involve multiphase flow of biofilm-coated solid support particles that are continuously circulated in a fluidized state within the reactor along with a constant supply of oxygen via an aeration mechanism. In this project, Capra Biosciences and LBNL developed a multiscale modeling framework to simulate the multiphase flows of solid particles in a liquid-gas bubble mixture that occurs in the bioreactor using the current MFIX-Exa software, an opensource multiphase flow solver developed and maintained at LBNL and NETL. By leveraging HPC capabilities, this high-fidelity multiscale model was used to inform design decisions for bioreactor architecture to make them operationally efficient.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Integrated Framework for Memory-Centric Analysis: From Trace Collection to Co-Design

The memory wall phenomenon—where advances in processor performance significantly outpace those in memory subsystems—poses a fundamental challenge for contemporary computing systems. In memory-bound applications, memory subsystem behavior dominates performance, yet existing analysis approaches present significant limitations: detailed microarchitectural simulators require days to weeks to simulate modest workloads; hardware performance counters provide only aggregate statistics that obscure temporal and spatial access patterns; and scaled simulation approaches face challenges in capturing certain behaviors that emerge at larger scales. These limitations reflect a processor-centric design philosophy increasingly misaligned with memory-bound workloads where detailed understanding of memory access patterns, cache hierarchy interactions, and contention is critical for effective optimization. This paper presents an integrated framework for memory-centric analysis that enables effective hardware-software co-design. We describe practical trace collection techniques, including hardware-assisted processor tracing with minimal overhead and portable software-based instrumentation with statistical sampling. We present multi-perspective analysis methods that examine memory behavior from temporal, sequential, spatial, and relational viewpoints, revealing distinct optimization opportunities invisible in aggregate metrics. We detail an architectural modeling framework that uses sampled traces with temporal interpolation and confidence-based filtering to evaluate cache and memory configurations. Evaluation on representative benchmarks demonstrates that this framework achieves practical accuracy (L2 cache errors of 2.64\%, confidence-filtered L3 errors of 9.92\%, bandwidth errors of 7.33\%) while providing substantial speedup (26.8×) over cycle-accurate simulation, enabling rapid design space exploration. We demonstrate how this integrated framework enables systematic identification of both hardware optimizations (memory controller tuning, bank partitioning, NUMA configuration) and software optimizations (data layout restructuring, prefetching strategies, memory-aware scheduling). Through this comprehensive treatment of the memory-centric analysis pipeline—from trace collection through architectural modeling to co-design application—we provide researchers and practitioners with practical techniques for addressing memory bottlenecks in contemporary computing systems.

Gajaria, Dhruv Mayur↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Regularized Variance-Reduced Modified Extragradient Method for Stochastic Hierarchical Games

We consider an N -player hierarchical game in which the i th player’s objective comprises of an expectation-valued term, parametrized by rival decisions, and a hierarchical term. Such a framework allows for capturing a broad range of stochastic hierarchical optimization problems, Stackelberg equilibrium problems, and leader-follower games. We develop an iteratively regularized and smoothed variance-reduced modified extragradient framework for iteratively approaching hierarchical equilibria in a stochastic setting. We equip our analysis with rate statements, complexity guarantees, and almost-sure convergence results. We then extend these statements to settings where the lower-level problem is solved inexactly and provide the corresponding rate and complexity statements. Our model framework encompasses many game theoretic equilibrium problems studied in the context of power markets. We present a realistic application to the study of virtual power plants, emphasizing the role of hierarchical decision making and regularization. Preliminary numerics suggest that empirical behavior compares well with theoretical guarantees.

Tikhonov regularization↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fully implicit crystal plasticity models representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters

Here, this work describes a crystal plasticity formulation combining several mathematical, numerical, and implementation choices to produce a highly efficient model. Specifically, the key choices in the implementation are (1) representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters, (2) implementing a fully coupled implicit time integration for the elastic stretch, the crystal orientations, and the model internal variables, (3) implementing the model in the NEML2 constitutive modeling framework, based on PyTorch, to vectorize the calculations and port the computation to GPUs and other hardware accelerators, and (4) an exact implementation of the consistent tangent matrix, even for arbitrary coupling to other field variables beyond the displacements, like temperature, neutron fluence, etc. The first two features of the model are, to our knowledge, novel. The paper considers each of these choices individually as well as the final model as a whole. This includes a full description of modified Rodrigues parameters, their advantages over other representations of orientations, the mathematical formulae and tools required to implement a model with modified Rodrigues parameters, and a detailed description of the geometry of the space of modified Rodrigues parameters (in an appendix). It also includes a description of a fully implicit time integration scheme for the orientations and the advantages in representing orientations with modified Rodrigues parameters in implementing such a model. The work then assess, via numerical examples, the advantages of fully coupled implicit time integration versus more common decoupled and explicit time integration schemes. These studies demonstrate the computational advantages of fully coupled integration versus other time integration algorithms, though the performance of the competing models depends on the complexity of the underlying single crystal model. The study concludes by demonstrating that the choice of time integration method affects the sharpness of the predicted texture, with explicit methods for integrating the orientations overestimating texture sharpness and implicit methods underestimating texture sharpness.

Crystal plasticity↗
DOE OSTI2025

HYPSTAT (Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Transmission Analysis Tool) [SWR-23-04]

The Hydrogen Production, Storage, and Transmission Analysis Tool (HYPSTAT) is a modeling framework developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to support the analysis of hydrogen systems. HYPSTAT focuses on key components of hydrogen infrastructure, particularly electrolytic hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, and hydrogen transmission, as part of the transition to decarbonized energy systems HYPSTAT operates as a supply-to-demand model, taking a fixed exogenous demand as input and optimizing the design and operation of the hydrogen system to meet that demand. It determines cost-optimal configurations based on specified technology options and system constraints.

Brauch, Joseph [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗
DOE OSTI2026

Agent-based Modeling for the Multi-objective Optimization of Energy Production Pathways: Integrated Techno-Economics and Life Cycle Assessment

This project developed an integrated modeling framework to evaluate how purpose-grown bioenergy feedstocks could support large-scale sustainable aviation fuel production in the United States. Led by Colorado State University with project partners, the work combined geographically resolved analysis, techno-economic assessment, life cycle assessment, multi-objective optimization, and agent-based modeling to examine feedstock performance, deployment potential, land-use implications, and adoption dynamics. The overall goal was to identify practical and sustainable pathways for producing aviation fuel from feedstocks such as energy crops, woody crops, oilseeds, and algae while helping inform policy, investment, and research needs tied to national SAF goals. In essence, the project provides a systems-level assessment of the opportunities and constraints associated with scaling bioenergy-based aviation fuels in the U.S.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

GASP Advancements With Symbolic Computations, Optimization, and Decoupled Numerical Methods

NASA is exploring advancements in hybrid-electric propulsion concepts for aircraft design. A new analysis capability has been deployed at NASA’s Ames Research Center using a new mathematical modeling framework in Python that leverages symbolic representation of mathematical expressions, optimization-based problem formulations, and standalone numerical methods. This capability, called Gascon, has been verified against NASA’s General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) results for several vehicles that exercise the analysis capability for a variety of aircraft classes and engine models, including both turbofans and turboprops. We believe this capability will set the stage for more rapid development of novel aircraft models with more flexible design assessments using optimization, and more traceable analysis for reproducibility. Additionally, a novel Pareto optimization-based design space exploration that shows the trade between range flown and fuel burn by manipulating the thrust split during cruise for a true parallel hybrid aircraft was developed by leveraging the unique features of Gascon.

aircraft design↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Radiolysis and Chemical Reactions during Dry Storage of Aluminum-clad Spent Nuclear Fuel

After aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ASNF) is removed from the reactor, it is initially stored in spent fuel pools, which are specially designed water-filled basins that provide temporary cooling to reduce the temperature of the fuel assemblies and provide radiation shielding. ASNF continues to generate heat due to the radioactive decay of elements within the fuel, which persists for many years post-shutdown as the residual radioactive products decay into more stable elements. During the wet storage period, an oxyhydroxide layer composed of boehmite/bayerite forms on the surfaces of the aluminum cladding from exposure to water in the pools. Road-ready packaging for long-term disposition of the ASNF involves dry storage in helium backfilled DOE standard canisters (DSCs). When the ASNF is removed from water storage and dried, most of the water is removed, but some physisorbed and chemisorbed water remains in the oxyhydroxide layers. This residual water can produce hydrogen when exposed to radiation from the ASNF during dry storage. Predicting hydrogen accumulation over time in the DSCs is critical for long-term storage considerations. Previous modeling efforts have developed coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)-chemical models to simulate temperature, pressure, and gas phase concentrations within the DSCs. These models use the thermal field predicted by CFD as input to a radiolysis model for the gas phase and the surface oxyhydroxide layer chemistry. Given the long storage period of the DSCs and the impracticality of long-term experiments, a simulation-based approach is necessary to assess chemical evolution within the canisters. This study advances the development of a modeling framework designed to simulate the chemical evolution of spent fuel canisters. Both thermal and radiation-driven reactions are considered, with radiation kinetics quantified using G-values. Sensitivity analysis identifies key parameters influencing species composition. Reaction pathway diagrams offer insight into dominant species formation routes, enabling more effective comparisons between model predictions and experimental observations, particularly regarding the production of hydrogen. Results show that the model predicts significant hydrogen gas production with minimal oxygen generation, primarily due to hydrogen formation via boehmite pathways. These findings underscore the importance of accurately characterizing surface-bound species and radiolysis kinetics. A deeper understanding of these mechanisms is critical for evaluating the long-term safety of nuclear waste storage.

12 - MGMT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTE↗
DOE OSTI2020

A geospatial model for the analysis of time-dependent land subsidence induced by reservoir depletion

Land subsidence due to fluid depletion is an outcome of physical processes operating across a wide range of time and length scales. Although geomechanical models are crucial to simulate reservoir compaction and predict its long-term fate, their use across large regions often bears prohibitive computational costs. To overcome this obstacle, this paper proposes a simplified modelling framework consisting of (i) a near-field numerical solver simulating the coupling between fluid flow and rock deformation with reference to a simplified one-dimensional geometry and (ii) a far-field geospatial algorithm mapping ground settlements across a region through the superposition of poroelastic computations at multiple wells. The model computes the delay between depletion history and reservoir compaction in proximity of a producing well by assuming basal depletion of a fluid-saturated deformable disk, while the Geertsma solution of nucleus of strain is used to extrapolate the impact of such time-varying reservoir compaction around the well. This approach has been used to back-analyze the spatio-temporal progression of subsidence at the Groningen gas field. The results are compared against measurements collected over 50 year of production at 25 benchmark locations scattered over an area of 900 km 2 . It is shown that coupled simulations based on average values of rock compressibility and permeability lead to nonlinear trends of subsidence evolution in good agreement with field measurements, while uncoupled analyses overpredict settlements by more than 70%. Lastly, synthetic forecasts based on different rates of depletion were provided. The results suggest that slower depletion rates lead to lower subsidence at a given time, and that residual subsidence may continue to develop for several decades after interruption of production activities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗