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NASA NTRS1993

Temperature induced distortions in space telescope mirrors

In this paper, it is illustrated how measured instantaneous coefficients of thermal expansion (CTE) can be accurately taken into account when modeling the structural behavior of space based optical systems. In particular, the importance of including CTE spatial variations in the analysis of optical elements is emphasized. A comparison is made between the CTE's of three optical materials commonly used in the construction of space mirrors (ULE, Zerodur, and beryllium). The overall impact that selection of any one of these materials has on thermal distortions is briefly discussed. As an example of how temperature dependent spatial variations in thermal strain can be accurately incorporated in the thermo-structural analysis of a precision optical system, a finite element model is developed, which is used to estimate the thermally induced distortions in the Hubble Space Telescope's (HST) primary mirror. In addition to the structural analysis, the optical aberrations due to thermally induced distortions are also examined. These calculations indicate that thermal distortions in HST's primary mirror contribute mainly to defocus error with a relatively small contribution to spherical aberration.

Nied, H. F.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Demonstration of a Safety Analysis on a Complex System

For the past 17 years, Professor Leveson and her graduate students have been developing a theoretical foundation for safety in complex systems and building a methodology upon that foundation. The methodology includes special management structures and procedures, system hazard analyses, software hazard analysis, requirements modeling and analysis for completeness and safety, special software design techniques including the design of human-machine interaction, verification, operational feedback, and change analysis. The Safeware methodology is based on system safety techniques that are extended to deal with software and human error. Automation is used to enhance our ability to cope with complex systems. Identification, classification, and evaluation of hazards is done using modeling and analysis. To be effective, the models and analysis tools must consider the hardware, software, and human components in these systems. They also need to include a variety of analysis techniques and orthogonal approaches: There exists no single safety analysis or evaluation technique that can handle all aspects of complex systems. Applying only one or two may make us feel satisfied, but will produce limited results. We report here on a demonstration, performed as part of a contract with NASA Langley Research Center, of the Safeware methodology on the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) portion of the air traffic control (ATC) system and procedures currently employed at the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach CONtrol). CTAS is an automated system to assist controllers in handling arrival traffic in the DFW area. Safety is a system property, not a component property, so our safety analysis considers the entire system and not simply the automated components. Because safety analysis of a complex system is an interdisciplinary effort, our team included system engineers, software engineers, human factors experts, and cognitive psychologists.

Leveson, Nancy↗

NASA NTRS2012

Carbon Consequences of Forest Disturbance and Recovery Across the Conterminous United States

Forests of North America are thought to constitute a significant long term sink for atmospheric carbon. The United States Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program has developed a large data base of stock changes derived from consecutive estimates of growing stock volume in the US. These data reveal a large and relatively stable increase in forest carbon stocks over the last two decades or more. The mechanisms underlying this national increase in forest stocks may include recovery of forests from past disturbances, net increases in forest area, and growth enhancement driven by climate or fertilization by CO2 and Nitrogen. Here we estimate the forest recovery component of the observed stock changes using FIA data on the age structure of US forests and carbon stocks as a function of age. The latter are used to parameterize forest disturbance and recovery processes in a carbon cycle model. We then apply resulting disturbance/recovery dynamics to landscapes and regions based on the forest age distributions. The analysis centers on 28 representative climate settings spread about forested regions of the conterminous US. We estimate carbon fluxes for each region and propagate uncertainties in calibration data through to the predicted fluxes. The largest recovery-driven carbon sinks are found in the South central, Pacific Northwest, and Pacific Southwest regions, with spatially averaged net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of about 100 g C / square m / a driven by forest age structure. Carbon sinks from recovery in the Northeast and Northern Lake States remain moderate to large owing to the legacy of historical clearing and relatively low modern disturbance rates from harvest and fire. At the continental scale, we find a conterminous U.S. forest NEP of only 0.16 Pg C/a from age structure in 2005, or only 0.047 Pg C/a of forest stock change after accounting for fire emissions and harvest transfers. Recent estimates of NEP derived from inventory stock change, harvest, and fire data show twice the NEP sink we derive from forest age distributions. We discuss possible reasons for the discrepancies including modeling errors and the possibility of climate and/or fertilization (CO2 or N) growth enhancements.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Probabilistic Inference of Low-Surface-Brightness Galaxy Morphological Parameters Using Simulation-Based Inference

Low-surface-brightness galaxies (LSBGs) are diffuse, often dark-matter-dominated systems whose faintness makes their structural parameters difficult to measure reliably in wide-field imaging surveys. Robust parameter inference, including uncertainty quantification, is important for population studies and for comparisons with models of galaxy formation, as future surveys are expected to produce increasingly large samples of diffuse galaxies. In practice, LSBG profile modeling is sensitive to sky- background errors, masking choices, contaminating background sources, and the computational cost of obtaining posterior-level uncertainties for large samples. Motivated by these questions, we develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for estimating posterior distributions of LSBG morphological parameters from simulated galaxy images. Using PyImfit, we generate DES-like single-Sersic profile LSBG images with known position angle, ellipticity, Sersic index, effective surface brightness, and effective radius. We then train a normalizing-flow-based neural posterior estimator using the sbi package to infer these parameters from the simulated images. For isolated simulated galaxies, the SBI posterior recovers the true input parameters, produces posterior predictive residuals consistent with the assumed noise model, and shows good empirical calibration in a DES-motivated test regime. We also compare SBI with PyImfit-based MCMC inference and find broadly comparable posterior constraints, while SBI enables substantially faster posterior sampling after training. Finally, we test robustness to compact background contaminants. A model trained only on isolated galaxies produces undercovered posteriors on contaminated images, whereas training on simulations with variable contaminant positions and fluxes improves calibration across contaminated test sets. These results demonstrate the promise of SBI for scalable, uncertainty-aware LSBG morphology inference, while emphasizing that posterior reliability strongly depends on whether training simulations include relevant observational complications.

Batbayar, Bilguun [U. Chicago (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2020

Validation of Hygrothermal Simulations with Wall Performance Experiments in an Environmental Chamber

Oak Ridge National Laboratory is developing a web tool, built on a rule-based expert system, that aids stakeholders in designing energy-efficient moisture-durable walls. Currently, the tool’s expert system database is mostly populated with expert opinion, but work is being done to incorporate durability assessment based on stochastic hygrothermal modeling. Chamber experiments have been conducted to validate the hygrothermal models. The measured temperature and humidity have been compared with those predicted by the hygrothermal model. Experiments and comparison to one-dimensional hygrothermal modeling results were completed with two walls, a Structural Insulated Panel (SIP) based wall and a Concrete Masonry Unit (CMU) based wall. The two walls were succumbed to typical Chicago weather in ORNL’s Heat, Air and Moisture chamber. The walls were sequentially exposed to different scenarios, including diffusion, wetting, air leakage and solar radiation. For the most part, the hygrothermal simulations can be successfully used to predict the performance of these wall systems for the moisture transport phenomenon. Errors between measured and simulated values decreased as measurements got closer to the interior side of the wall. The root mean square error was larger for relative humidity (up to 17.5%-RH for CMU) than for temperature (up to 4.5°C for CMU wall). The errors were larger for the CMU wall than the wood frame wall. The phenomenon, including liquid water, caused large discrepancies between measurement and simulation results, and simulated results showed slower drying of materials than measured results. The one-dimensional nature of the simulation model made simulating air leaks difficult but not impossible.

Salonvaara, Mikael↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of grain structure after thermomechanical processing of U-10Mo alloy using sensitivity analysis and machine learning surrogate model

Abstract Hot rolling and annealing are critical intermediate steps for controlling microstructures and thickness variations when fabricating uranium alloyed with 10% molybdenum (U-10Mo), which is highly relevant to worldwide nuclear non-proliferation efforts. This work proposes a machine-learning surrogate model combined with sensitivity analysis to identify and predict U-10Mo microstructure development during thermomechanical processing. Over 200 simulations were collected using physics-based microstructure models covering a wide range of thermomechanical processing routes and initial alloy grain features. Based on the sensitivity analysis, we determined that an increase in rolling reduction percentage at each processing pass has the strongest effect in reducing the grain size. Multi-pass rolling and annealing can significantly improve recrystallization regardless of the reduction percentage. With a volume fraction below 2%, uranium carbide particles were found to have marginal effects on the average grain size and distribution. The proposed stratified stacking ensemble surrogate predicts the U-10Mo grain size with a mean square error four times smaller than a standard single deep neural network. At the same time, with a significant speedup (1000×) compared to the physics-based model, the machine learning surrogate shows good potential for U-10Mo fabrication process optimization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Methods to determine the radiated power in SPI-mitigated disruptions in JET

Here we present techniques for evaluating the radiated power in JET disruptions. Disrupting plasmas are shown to have non-axisymmetric radiation profiles, motivating the re-evaluation of the standard techniques for calculating the total radiated power at JET using bolometry. Four single-channel bolometers at different toroidal locations are exploited to quantify the radiation asymmetry. Toroidal radiation peaking factors integrated over the entire disruption of up to 1.5 have been observed when varying the quantity of neon in pellets used in disruptions mitigated by shattered pellet injection. Using synthetic bolometer diagnostics developed with the Cherab spectroscopy modeling framework, we can estimate the systematic error on total power calculations for relevant radiation profiles and improve estimates of the total radiated power. We show that the component of the systematic error on the total power due to the poloidal radiation profile can be reduced from 70% to 10% with suitable assumptions about the structure of the poloidal profile.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

A new stabilizing regime of tearing mode entrainment in the presence of a static error field

Uncorrected static error fields in axisymmetric fusion devices are one of few remaining serious obstacles for advancing the present tokamak-based approach to practical reactors. The disruption due to magnetohydrodynamic tearing mode locking is one of them. Recently, a hypothesis has been proposed that there may exist a self-healing stabilized regime in which the static resonant error field is effectively shielded by forcing the mode slowly to rotate inductively by the applied non-axisymmetric field, that has been developed based on non-linear, resistive, reduced MHD simulation with cylindrical single helicity model. Proof-of-principle experiments in the DIII-D device showed that the magnetic mode structure on the plasma surface is qualitatively consistent with the simulation prediction. However, radial mode profiles revealed qualitatively different behavior. This finding led to a revised hypothesis that in actual non-circular toroidal devices, a tearing layer in forced rotation induces the shielding-out process at other rational surfaces when we take into account of multi-resonant Fourier components. The time evolution of the radial penetration was supportive of this hypothesis.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Nonlinear saturation of ballooning modes in stellarators

Ballooning mode saturation is investigated in realistic stellarator configurations using the flux tube approach of Ham et al (2018 Plasma Phys. Control. Fusion 60 075017), Ham et al (2016 Phys. Rev. Lett. 116 235001). The method is adapted to account for the lack of exact force balance in stellarator equilibrium solvers that assume existence of nested flux surfaces. A variational approach for calculating flux tube energy is developed to overcome this force error problem in stellarator numerical equilibria. Saturated (equilibrium) flux tube states that cross 10%–20% of the plasma minor radius are shown to exist for linearly ballooning unstable profiles. It is shown that several features of the displaced flux tube structure in a full nonlinear MHD simulation of Wendelstein 7X are reproduced by our model. Saturated states are found in a compact stellarator equilibrium close but below the marginal ballooning linear instability, i.e. the unperturbed equilibrium is metastable. This suggests that edge-localized-mode-like explosive MHD behavior may be possible in stellarators.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2019

Level-set Modeling Simulations of Chemical Vapor Infiltration for Ceramic Matrix Composites Manufacturing

Silicon-carbide (SiC) reinforced ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) are a key enabling technology to reduce fuel consumption and emissions of gas turbine engines. In one manufacturing approach, chemical vapor infiltration (CVI) is limited to only coating SiC fibers. The preform is then fabricated using a lay-up of basic plys or 2-D woven sheets composed of the precoated fibers. At the other extreme, CVI is used to completely densify a 3-D woven preform shaped almost like the gas turbine component itself. The latter approach is more suitable for highly engineered components which sit directly in the gas path of the engine, for example, a high pressure turbine blade. In this case, the geometry is necessarily complex for aerodynamic, stress, and lifing (multi-physics) requirements. Presently, optimizing the CVI-dominated manufacturing approach is largely by trial-and-error. In this work, a first-principles modeling of CVI is performed to realize optimization of SiC/SiC CMC manufacturing. The modeling is based on a level-set framework to describe the interface between the vapor and solid phases. A finite-difference numerical scheme using an immersed boundary method is developed for fixed, structured meshes. Massively parallel direct numerical simulations (DNS) of CVI through fiber-woven geometries are performed using one-step chemistry, and over a range of Thiele moduli. Illustrative applications of the resulting large DNS data sets are given, including the development of fiber-weave specific infiltration models and structure functions for mean-field (porous media) Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations of CVI.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1972

Utilization of a CRT display light pen in the design of feedback control systems

A hierarchical structure of the interlinked programs was developed to provide a flexible computer-aided design tool. A graphical input technique and a data structure are considered which provide the capability of entering the control system model description into the computer in block diagram form. An information storage and retrieval system was developed to keep track of the system description, and analysis and simulation results, and to provide them to the correct routines for further manipulation or display. Error analysis and diagnostic capabilities are discussed, and a technique was developed to reduce a transfer function to a set of nested integrals suitable for digital simulation. A general, automated block diagram reduction procedure was set up to prepare the system description for the analysis routines.

Thompson, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Acoustic intensity calculations for axisymmetrically modeled fluid regions

An algorithm for calculating acoustic intensities from a time harmonic pressure field in an axisymmetric fluid region is presented. Acoustic pressures are computed in a mesh of NASTRAN triangular finite elements of revolution (TRIAAX) using an analogy between the scalar wave equation and elasticity equations. Acoustic intensities are then calculated from pressures and pressure derivatives taken over the mesh of TRIAAX elements. Intensities are displayed as vectors indicating the directions and magnitudes of energy flow at all mesh points in the acoustic field. A prolate spheroidal shell is modeled with axisymmetric shell elements (CONEAX) and submerged in a fluid region of TRIAAX elements. The model is analyzed to illustrate the acoustic intensity method and the usefulness of energy flow paths in the understanding of the response of fluid-structure interaction problems. The structural-acoustic analogy used is summarized for completeness. This study uncovered a NASTRAN limitation involving numerical precision issues in the CONEAX stiffness calculation causing large errors in the system matrices for nearly cylindrical cones.

Hambric, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Standard solar model

A set of solar models have been constructed, each based on a single modification to the physics of a reference solar model. In addition, a model combining several of the improvements has been calculated to provide a best solar model. Improvements were made to the nuclear reaction rates, the equation of state, the opacities, and the treatment of the atmosphere. The impact on both the structure and the frequencies of the low-l p-modes of the model to these improvements are discussed. It is found that the combined solar model, which is based on the best physics available (and does not contain any ad hoc assumptions), reproduces the observed oscillation spectrum (for low-l) within the errors associated with the uncertainties in the model physics (primarily opacities).

Guenther, D. B.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Gravity referenced elevation encoder development

Recent progress in the development of a gravity-sensor-based instrument for determining the elevation angle of DSN antennas is described. The benefits of such a system include the capability to locate the Gravity Referenced Elevation Encoder (GREE) directly on the primary reflector (thus bypassing structural flexure and deformation error sources), anticipated lower maintenance costs compared to the present gimbal encoders, direct replaceability, or supplementation of the present gimbal encoders and the utilization of off-the-shelf components to construct the GREE. This article includes a description of the nominal GREE design. Test results on a laboratory breadboard model are given. Rigid-body dynamics of the GREE are derived and the simulated performance in response to measured antenna vibrations is given.

Goddard, R. E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Evaluation of piezoceramic actuators for control of aircraft interior noise

Results of an experiment to evaluate piezoceramic actuators as the control actuator for active control of interior noise in a large-scale fuselage model are presented. Control was demonstrated for tonal excitation using a time domain least mean squares algorithm. A maximum of four actuator channels and six error signals were used. The actuators were employed for control of noise at frequencies where interior cavity modes were the dominant response and for driven acoustic responses where a structure resonance was dominant. Global reductions of 9 to 12 dB were obtained for the cases examined. The most effective configuration of skin-mounted actuators was found to be a pure in-plane forcing function as opposed to a bending excitation. The frame-mounted actuators were found to be equally effective as the skin-mounted actuators. However, both configurations resulted in local regions of unacceptably high vibration response in the structure.

Silcox, Richard J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Structural damage detection of space truss structures using best achievable eigenvectors

A method is presented by which measured modes and frequencies from a modal test can be used to determine the location and magnitude of damage in a space struss structure. The damage is located by computing the Euclidean distances between the measured mode shapes and the best achievable eigenvectors. The best achievable eigenvectors are the projection of the measured mode shapes onto the subspace defined by the refined analytical model of the structure and the measured frequencies. Loss of both stiffness and mass properties can be located and quantified. To examine the performance of the method when experimentally measured modes are employed, various damage detection studies using a laboratory eight-bay truss structure were conducted. The method performs well even though the measurement errors inevitably make the damage location more difficult.

Lim, Tae W.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to highlight their inappropriateness for what is really needed at the conceptual phase of the design process. The First-Order Process Velocity Cost Model (FOPV) is discussed at length in the next section. This is followed by an application of the FOPV cost model to a generic wing. For designs that have no precedence as far as acquisition costs are concerned, cost data derived from the FOPV cost model may not be accurate enough because of new requirements for shape complexity, material, equipment and precision/tolerance. The concept of Cost Modulus is introduced at this point to compensate for these new burdens on the basic processes. This is treated in section 5. The cost of a design must be conveniently linked to its CAD representation. The interfacing of CAD models and spreadsheets containing the cost equations is the subject of the next section, section 6. The last section of the report is a summary of the progress made so far, and the anticipated research work to be achieved in the future.

Bao, Han P.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

Bao, Han P.↗