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At least 829 records · Page 46

Laboratory studies at high resolution of the infrared absorption spectra of a number of gases found in planetary atmospheres

The infrared absorption spectra of a number of gases found in planetary atmospheres were studied at high resolution. Absorption line measurements which can be of value for the interpretation of planetary spectra in terms of molecular abundances and conditions in the planetary atmospheres were provided. The high resolution spectra have yielded measurements of individual vibration rotation line parameters including positions, strengths, pressure broadened widths and, where assignments were unknown, the temperature sensitivity of the strengths. Such information allows the determinations of the absorption of a given molecular gas under planetary conditions of temperature and pressure and at the same time it provides the data necessary if the spectra are to be understood in terms of basic molecular theory. Thus this work has included spectral analysis in the form of line assignments as well as fitting of the data to Hamiltonian models. Such fitting is very useful in that it helps to confirm and extend the assignments.

Hunt, R. H.↗

The structure of clusters of galaxies observed with Einstein

Imaging observations from the Einstein Observatory are used to determine properties of galactic clusters and the intracluster gas. The hydrostatic-isothermal gas model is applied to obtain the cluster core radius, the limiting slope of the X-ray surface brightness distribution, and the presence and magnitude of a central luminosity excess above that predicted from the model when fit to the outer regions of the cluster. It is concluded that clusters can be divided into two basic families, one with small core radii and X-ray emission centered on a central dominant galaxy, and one with larger core radii and generally no central, stationary bright galaxy. The former type probably begins to form in the early stages of a cluster's dynamical evolution. The intracluster gas has a larger scale height than that of the galaxies based on the fit of the hydrostatic-isothermal model to the X-ray surface brightness profiles.

Jones, C.↗

Extended atmospheres of comets and outer planet-satellite systems

For the hydrogen coma of comet P/Halley, both a Lyman-alpha image and extensive Lyman-alpha scan data obtained by the Pioneer Venus Orbiter Ultraviolet spectrometer as well as H-alpha ground-based spectral observations obtained by the University of Wisconsin Space Physics Group were successfully interpreted and analyzed with our Monte Carlo particle trajectory model. The excellent fit of the model and the Halley data and the water production rate determined near perihelion (9 Feb. 1986) from 13 Dec. 1985 to 13 Jan. 1986 and from 1 Feb. to 7 Mar. 1986 are discussed. Studies for the circumplanetary distribution of atomic hydrogen in the Saturn and Neptune systems were undertaken for escape of H atoms from Titan and Triton, respectively. The discovery of a new mechanism which can dramatically change the normal cylindrically symmetric distribution of hydrogen about the planet is discussed. The implications for the Titan-Saturn and Triton-Neptune are summarized.

Smyth, William H.↗

First VLTI/GRAVITY Observations of HIP 65426 b: Evidence for a Low or Moderate Orbital Eccentricity

Giant exoplanets have been directly imaged over orders of magnitude of orbital separations, prompting theoretical and observational investigations of their formation pathways. In this paper, we present new VLTI/GRAVITY astrometric data of HIP 65426 b, a cold, giant exoplanet which is a particular challenge for most formation theories at a projected separation of 92 au from its primary. Leveraging GRAVITY's astrometric precision, we present an updated eccentricity posterior that disfavors large eccentricities. The eccentricity posterior is still prior dependent, and we extensively interpret and discuss the limits of the posterior constraints presented here. We also perform updated spectral comparisons with self-consistent forward-modeled spectra, finding a best-fit ExoREM model with solar metallicity and C/O = 0.6. An important caveat is that it is difficult to estimate robust errors on these values, which are subject to interpolation errors as well as potentially missing model physics. Taken together, the orbital and atmospheric constraints paint a preliminary picture of formation inconsistent with scattering after disk dispersal. Further work is needed to validate this interpretation. Analysis code used to perform this work is available on GitHub: https://github.com/sblunt/hip65426.

Sarah Blunt↗

Surface fitting with biharmonic and harmonic models

The physical and geometric interpretation of a surface fitting technique, multiquadric equations (MQ), is discussed. The relation of this method and its reciprocal form to biharmonic and harmonic techniques respectively, is pointed out. In both forms the solutions may be viewed as being numerical approximations of an integral equation in which an unknown density function is the physical source for disturbing potential (reciprocal-MQ) or elastic displacement (MQ).

Hardy, R. L.↗

Use of Sobol’ Variance-Based Global Sensitivity Analysis and Multidimensional Legendre Polynomial Fitting for Reduced Order Modeling

Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) has developed a novel reduced order modeling approach. Prioritization of inputs is accomplished using Sobo' indices obtained through a more efficient variance-based global sensitivity analysis. To determine the Sobo' functions, simulated input values are aligned to collocation points to permit the use of Gauss-Lobatto integration, thereby reducing the number of simulation trials needed by more than an order of magnitude compared to standard Monte Carlo approaches. Furthermore, by leveraging the orthogonality of Legendre polynomials in conjunction with those same simulations at the collocation nodes, an efficient fitting method is developed to represent the Sobo' functions from which a reduced order model (ROM) is constructed. The developed method is both more efficient computationally, and the resulting ROM is more accurate. The efficacy of this technique is demonstrated on a nonlinear polynomial test function as well as the nonlinear Ishigami and Sobo' g functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Chrono-Validation of Near-Real-Time Landslide Susceptibility Models via Plugin Statistical Simulations

The idea behind any validation scheme in landslide susceptibility studies is to test whether a model calibrated on a certain data can predict an unknown dataset of the same nature (landslide presences/absences and covariates). Almost the entirety of landslide susceptibility studies are validated by subsetting a single dataset into a training and test sets. This dataset usually corresponds either to event-specific or to historical inventories. Very rarely, a multi-temporal inventory is available and, in the few cases where this condition is met, the validation practices involve training a model on a specific landslide inventory, deriving a single predictive equation and validating it on a subsequent landslide inventory. This commonly leads landslide predictive studies, even those with a strong statistical rigor, to neglect the uncertainty estimation in their modeling scheme. In statistics, validation can also be performed via statistical simulations. This means that after fitting a given model, one can generate any number of predictive functions and test their predictive skills on any type and number of unknown datasets. In this work, we take a similar direction and we apply it to model and validate three separate co-seismic inventories, including an uncertainty estimation phase. We mapped these inventories within the same area in Indonesia, for three earthquakes occurred in 2012, 2017 and 2018. Specifically, we build three event-specific Bayesian Generalize Additive Models of the binomial family. From each model we then simulate 1000 predictive realizations over the remaining two inventories, by using a plug-in scheme where all the morphometric covariates are kept fixed and only the ground motion is replaced according to the prediction target. By doing so, we introduce a new analytical tool for near-real-time landslide predictive purposes, which is able to produce a probabilistic model which stands in between the definitions of susceptibility and hazard. In fact, our model is able to accurately estimate “where” and “when” - although not “how frequently” - landslide have occurred by featuring the multitemporal information of the trigger. In our findings, the simulations are quite similar to the fitted models; and the nine combinations we analyse produce excellent performance. This result confirms the assumption that “the past is the key to the future”, as we show that the relative contribution of each variable and their interactions in each probabilistic model remains practically the same across temporal replicates. This information is not trivial because it supports the routines implemented in global near-real-time applications.

Temporal validation↗

Numerical evaluation of photosensitive tracers as a strategy for separating surface and subsurface transient storage in streams

For this work, we numerically evaluated photosensitive tracers as a potential strategy for separating the effects of surface and hyporheic storage zones (SSZs and HSZs, respectively) on stream corridor transport. Correctly separating HSZ and SSZ effects is critical to estimating the hydro-biogeochemical function of a stream because HSZs and SSZs expose solutes to significantly different biogeochemical conditions, like sunlight exposure, microbial processes, and oxygen availability. Our numerical experiments used a multiscale river-corridor transport model implemented in the ATS code, which accommodates multiple storage zones with distinct travel time distributions and biogeochemical reactions. For parameter inferences, we used Bayesian inverse modeling. We found that breakthrough curves for photo-decaying tracers from day and night injection can delineate surface and hyporheic transient storage contributions, but only when interpreted jointly through a two-storage zone model. Numerical experiments that used only daytime injection or interpreted breakthrough curves with a single storage zone model yielded good fit to breakthrough curves, but parameter estimates were biased and controlling processes misattributed, examples of good model fits for the wrong reasons. Using those biased parameter estimates in reactive transport simulations resulted in significantly different projections of denitrification, which underscores the potential for stream function to be mischaracterized if tracer tests are interpreted through an inappropriately simplified model for transient storage. More generally, this study highlights the role of modeling in evaluating the experimental design and identifying the potential of system mischaracterization and its implications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of Echo 7 field line length measurements to magnetospheric model predictions

The Echo 7 sounding rocket experiment injected electron beams on central tail field lines near L = 6.5. Numerous injections returned to the payload as 'conjugate echoes' after mirroring in the southern hemisphere. Field line lengths calculated from measured conjugate echo bounce times and energies are compared to predictions made by integrating electron trajectories through various magnetospheric models. Although Kp at launch was 3-, quiet time magnetic models best fit the echo measurements. Geosynchronous satellite magnetometer measurements near the Echo 7 field lines during the flight were best modeled by the Olson-Pfitzer Dynamic Model and the Tsyganenko-Usmanov model for Kp = 3. The discrepancy between the models that best fit the Echo 7 data and those that fit the satellite data was most likely due to uncertainties in the small-scale configuration of the magnetospheric models. The field line length measured by the conjugate echoes showed some temporal variation in the magnetic field, also indicated by the satellite magnetometers. This demonstrates the utility an Echo-style experiment could have in substorm studies.

Nemzek, R. J.↗

Dynamic modeling of fluid transmission lines of the DSN 70-meter antennas by using a lumped parameter model

Fluid transmission lines and fittings were found to significantly affect the dynamic and steady state operation of the engineering system in which they are incorporated. Therefore, a better understanding of the operation of a system can be obtained by including the performance of the transmission lines and fittings within the system model. The most accurate model of a transmission line or fitting is obtained by using a distributed parameter model. However, a distributed parameter model tends to be very complex. This complexity can be avoided without significant loss of model accuracy by using a lumped parameter model when the length of the fluid path through the transmission line or fitting is short. This article develops a lumped parameter model for short fluid transmission lines and fittings, describes the conditions under which the model is valid, and presents the model parameters associated with the servo hydraulic system of the Deep Space Network (DSN) 70-meter antennas.

Bartos, R. D.↗

An Analysis of Dust Halo and Extinction Toward X Persei

Interstellar dust grain models are not sufficiently constrained by UV extinction curves to be able to distinguish between them. By testing grain models in the X-ray regime and applying elemental abundance constraints, we show to what extent the models can reproduce the observables in these regimes, and if they are capable of doing so while respecting the abundance limits. We tested the MRN and WD grain models. The fits to the X-ray data do not allow us to distinguish between MRN and WD; both models provide reasonable fits, but cannot do so while respecting the elemental abundance constraints. The situation in the UV regime is similar. Both MRN and WD underestimate the hydrogen column density NH. The model of ZDA provides promising results, as it finds NH much closer to the UV-measured value; further testing of this model is called for.

Valencic, Lynne A.↗

Assessment of Models of Galactic Thermal Dust Emission Using COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE Observations

Accurate modeling of the spectrum of thermal dust emission at millimeter wavelengths is important for improving the accuracy of foreground subtraction for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, for improving the accuracy with which the contributions of different foreground emission components can be determined, and for improving our understanding of dust composition and dust physics. We fit four models of dust emission to high Galactic latitude COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE observations from 3 mm to 100m and compare the quality of the fits. We consider the two-level systems (TLS) model because it provides a physically motivated explanation for the observed long wavelength flattening of the dust spectrum and the anti-correlation between emissivity index and dust temperature. We consider the model of Finkbeiner et al. because it has been widely used for CMB studies, and the generalized version of this model that was recently applied to Planck data by Meisner and Finkbeiner. For comparison we have also fit a phenomenological model consisting of the sum of two-graybody components. We find that the two-graybody model gives the best fit and the FDS model gives a significantly poorer fit than the othermodels. The Meisner and Finkbeiner model and the TLS model remain viable for use in Galactic foreground subtraction, but the FIRAS data do not have a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio to provide a strong test of the predicted spectrum at millimeter wavelengths.

Odegard, N.↗

Modeling resistance to the broadly neutralizing antibody PGT121 in people living with HIV-1

PGT121 is a broadly neutralizing antibody in clinical development for the treatment and prevention of HIV-1 infection via passive administration. PGT121 targets the HIV-1 V3-glycan and demonstrated potent antiviral activity in a phase I clinical trial. Resistance to PGT121 monotherapy rapidly occurred in the majority of participants in this trial with the sampled rebound viruses being entirely resistant to PGT121 mediated neutralization. However, two individuals experienced long-term ART-free viral suppression following antibody infusion and retained sensitivity to PGT121 upon viral rebound. Here, we develop mathematical models of the HIV-1 dynamics during this phase I clinical trial. We utilize these models to understand the dynamics leading to PGT121 resistance and to identify the mechanisms driving the observed long-term viral control. Our modeling highlights the importance of the relative fitness difference between PGT121 sensitive and resistant subpopulations prior to treatment. Specifically, by fitting our models to data, we identify the treatment-induced competitive advantage of previously existing or newly generated resistant population as a primary driver of resistance. Finally, our modeling emphasizes the high neutralization ability of PGT121 in both participants who exhibited long-term viral control.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Forbidden coronal iron-like emission in the Puppis A shock front - The effect of inhomogeneities

CCD images of the shock front at the eastern rim of Pup A, obtained in the forbidden lines of Fe X (6374 A) and Fe XIV (5303 A), are reported and compared to Einstein high-resolution-image soft X-ray data. The observed part of the remnant is complex, containing density irregularities. Optical and X-ray data are consistent in showing a nearly flat gradient of ionization temperature behind the shock. To determine conditions in the shock, scans of surface brightness across it in the optical lines were compared to surface brightnesses predicted by idealized Sedov models. It was not possible to match both the red and green line scans by a simple, single-component model, and the failure is ascribed to the presence of the density inhomogeneities. This result has important implications for the determination of SNR shock-front models by fitting X-ray data with Sedov models.

Teske, Richard G.↗

A Stochastic Model of Space-Time Variability of Mesoscale Rainfall: Statistics of Spatial Averages

A characteristic feature of rainfall statistics is that they depend on the space and time scales over which rain data are averaged. A previously developed spectral model of rain statistics that is designed to capture this property, predicts power law scaling behavior for the second moment statistics of area-averaged rain rate on the averaging length scale L as L right arrow 0. In the present work a more efficient method of estimating the model parameters is presented, and used to fit the model to the statistics of area-averaged rain rate derived from gridded radar precipitation data from TOGA COARE. Statistical properties of the data and the model predictions are compared over a wide range of averaging scales. An extension of the spectral model scaling relations to describe the dependence of the average fraction of grid boxes within an area containing nonzero rain (the "rainy area fraction") on the grid scale L is also explored.

Kundu, Prasun K.↗

Global Variability in Sonic Boom Exposure due to Macroscopic Effects

Supersonic flight over land has been prohibited since 1973 due to the loudness of sonic booms. NASA is building the X-59 aircraft as part of its Quesst mission to demonstrate low-loudness shaped sonic booms, or “sonic thumps.” The Quesst mission will gather human perception data via a series of community noise surveys across the USA. The noise dose and perceptual response data will be provided to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) and the Federal Aviation Administration for use in determining potential future supersonic aircraft noise certification standards, effectively changing the prohibition from a speed limit to a noise limit. These noise regulations must be globally effective, as long travel distances see the largest benefit to supersonic flight. The state of the atmosphere through which a sonic boom travels affects the size of the region exposed to sound, the “carpet width” (CW), as well as the loudness. The focus of this dissertation is to understand and quantify the expected loudness and CW of sonic booms due to the macroscopic atmospheric effects around the world. A pair of large-scale propagation simulation studies were conducted using the NASA PCBoom code to compare predicted sonic boom loudness and CW statistics first across the USA and then across the world. For the USA study, near-field data of the X-59 in steady cruise was propagated at 4 cardinal headings at 138 locations through 5 years of Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) atmospheric profiles. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, latitude, ground elevation, season, and heading. It also noted the unimportance of time of day for predicting loudness and CW. The data is visualized in aggregate, and then broken out geographically, by season and heading, and by climate zone. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 138 locations so that estimates of the loudness and CW can be produced anywhere in the US. The results can aid in planning when and where to fly the X-59. For the global study, near-field data from three aircraft, the X-59 in a quiet and loud configuration, B-58, and Concorde, were propagated at four cardinal headings through data from three atmospheric models, the CFSv2, the Global Forecast System (GFS), and the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5), at 100 global locations over 1 year. Results of a bootstrap forest predictor screening model indicated the importance of climate zone, ground elevation, season, and heading. Similar to the US study, the model indicated time of day was not an important predictor. The model also indicated that choice of weather model was not important, so the atmospheric model data are effectively interchangeable. The ERA5 model was chosen for use in an extension of the study to include 18 additional locations to ensure sampling of every climate zone. Loudness and CW results are shown in aggregate, and split geographically and by heading, season, and climate. Multiple linear regression models were fit to the data from the 118 locations so that estimates of loudness and CW can be produced around the world. N-waves and shaped booms did not have the same global variability. Koppen-Geiger climate zones were used as the climate zone definition for the global study. These are available as present-day and future climate projections. Making use of the multiple linear regression models, the future climate zones were input to estimate the effect of the changing climate on sonic boom loudness and CW. Results indicate that a changing climate would have little impact on the effectiveness of noise regulations.

X-59↗

New method for fitting coefficients in standard model effective theory

We present an alternative method for carrying out a principal-component analysis of Wilson coefficients in standard model effective field theory (SMEFT). The method is based on singular-value decomposition (SVD). The SVD method provides information about the sensitivity of experimental observables to physics beyond the standard model that is not accessible in the Fisher-information method. In principle, the SVD method can also have computational advantages over diagonalization of the Fisher information matrix. We demonstrate the SVD method by applying it to the dimension-6 coefficients for the process of top-quark decay to a b quark and a W boson and use this example to illustrate some pitfalls in widely used fitting procedures. We also outline an iterative procedure for applying the SVD method to dimension-8 SMEFT coefficients.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Combined selection of the dynamic model and modeling error in nonlinear aeroelastic systems using Bayesian Inference

Here, we report a Bayesian framework for concurrent selection of physics-based models and (modeling) error models. We investigate the use of colored noise to capture the mismatch between the predictions of calibrated models and observational data that cannot be explained by measurement error alone within the context of Bayesian estimation for stochastic ordinary differential equations. Proposed models are characterized by the average data-fit, a measure of how well a model fits the measurements, and the model complexity measured using the Kullback–Leibler divergence. The use of a more complex error models increases the average data-fit but also increases the complexity of the combined model, possibly over-fitting the data. Bayesian model selection is used to find the optimal physical model as well as the optimal error model. The optimal model is defined using the evidence, where the average data-fit is balanced by the complexity of the model. The effect of colored noise process is illustrated using a nonlinear aeroelastic oscillator representing a rigid NACA0012 airfoil undergoing limit cycle oscillations due to complex fluid–structure interactions. Several quasi-steady and unsteady aerodynamic models are proposed with colored noise or white noise for the model error. The use of colored noise improves the predictive capabilities of simpler models.

42 ENGINEERING↗