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At least 829 records · Page 46

RADAMS: Resilient and adaptive alert and attention management strategy against Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks

Attacks exploiting human attentional vulnerability have posed severe threats to cybersecurity. In this work, we identify and formally define a new type of proactive attentional attacks called Informational Denial-of-Service (IDoS) attacks that generate a large volume of feint attacks to overload human operators and hide real attacks among feints. Here, we incorporate human factors (e.g., levels of expertise, stress, and efficiency) and empirical psychological results (e.g., the Yerkes-Dodson law and the sunk cost fallacy) to model the operators’ attention dynamics and their decision-making processes along with the real-time alert monitoring and inspection. To assist human operators in dismissing the feints and escalating the real attacks timely and accurately, we develop a Resilient and Adaptive Data-driven alert and Attention Management Strategy (RADAMS) that de-emphasizes alerts selectively based on the abstracted category labels of the alerts. RADAMS uses reinforcement learning to achieve a customized and transferable design for various human operators and evolving IDoS attacks. The integrated modeling and theoretical analysis lead to the Product Principle of Attention (PPoA), fundamental limits, and the tradeoff among crucial human and economic factors. Experimental results corroborate that the proposed strategy outperforms the default strategy and can reduce the IDoS risk by as much as 20%. Besides, the strategy is resilient to large variations of costs, attack frequencies, and human attention capacities. We have recognized interesting phenomena such as attentional risk equivalency, attacker’s dilemma, and the half-truth optimal attack strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022

The Industroyer2 and Wiper Malware Targeting Ukrainian Energy Provider 2022 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the Industroyer2 cyber attack and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. An adversary attempted to cause a blackout in Ukraine in April 2022 by using the Industroyer2 malware against a regional Ukrainian energy provider. The adversary targeted eight high-voltage electrical substations and utilized the malware in tandem with disk wipers for Windows, Linux, and Solaris operating systems in an attempt to make response and recovery efforts more difficult. The adversary reused a piece of the original Industroyer malware designed to open circuit breakers and de-energize target substations. The adversary gained initial access to the victim’s enterprise network through unknown means in February 2022 and was able to perform reconnaissance, pivot to the operations network, and reside in the system for at least 51 days. This gave the adversary a detailed understanding of the environment and allowed them to customize the Industroyer2 malware to the victim’s operations network. However, defenders detected and stopped the attack before the adversary could achieve their intended impact. Had the Industroyer2 attack been successful, it could have caused a blackout for more than two million people during the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Researchers and analysts identified 22 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 31 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 297 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-three of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer2 cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 224 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 122 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 51 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Constraints on sequential discontinuities from the geometry of on-shell spaces

We present several classes of constraints on the discontinuities of Feynman integrals that go beyond the Steinmann relations. These constraints follow from a geometric formulation of the Landau equations that was advocated by Pham, in which the singularities of Feynman integrals correspond to critical points of maps between on-shell spaces. To establish our results, we review elements of Picard-Lefschetz theory, which connect the homotopy properties of the space of complexified external momenta to the homology of the combined space of on-shell internal and external momenta. An important concept that emerges from this analysis is the question of whether or not a pair of Landau singularities is compatible — namely, whether or not the Landau equations for the two singularities can be satisfied simultaneously. Under conditions we describe, sequential discontinuities with respect to non-compatible Landau singularities must vanish. Although we only rigorously prove results for Feynman integrals with generic masses in this paper, we expect the geometric and algebraic insights that we gain will also assist in the analysis of more general Feynman integrals.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The Stellar decomposition: A compact representation for simplicial complexes and beyond

Here, we introduce the Stellar decomposition, a model for efficient topological data structures over a broad range of simplicial and cell complexes. A Stellar decomposition of a complex is a collection of regions indexing the complex’s vertices and cells such that each region has sufficient information to locally reconstruct the star of its vertices, i.e., the cells incident in the region’s vertices. Stellar decompositions are general in that they can compactly represent and efficiently traverse arbitrary complexes with a manifold or non-manifold domain. They are scalable to complexes in high dimension and of large size, and they enable users to easily construct tailored application-dependent data structures using a fraction of the memory required by a corresponding global topological data structure on the complex. As a concrete realization of this model for spatially embedded complexes, we introduce the Stellar tree, which combines a nested spatial tree with a simple tuning parameter to control the number of vertices in a region. Stellar trees exploit the complex’s spatial locality by reordering vertex and cell indices according to the spatial decomposition and by compressing sequential ranges of indices. Stellar trees are competitive with state-of-the-art topological data structures for manifold simplicial complexes and offer significant improvements for cell complexes and non-manifold simplicial complexes. We conclude with a high-level description of several mesh processing and analysis applications that utilize Stellar trees to process large datasets.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Material coherence from trajectories via Burau eigenanalysis of braids

In this paper, we provide a numerical tool to study a material’s coherence from a set of 2D Lagrangian trajectories sampling a dynamical system, i.e., from the motion of passive tracers. We show that eigenvectors of the Burau representation of a topological braid derived from the trajectories have levelsets corresponding to components of the Nielsen–Thurston decomposition of the dynamical system. One can thus detect and identify clusters of space–time trajectories corresponding to coherent regions of the dynamical system by solving an eigenvalue problem. Unlike previous methods, the scalable computational complexity of our braid-based approach allows the analysis of large amounts of trajectories.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nonlinear susceptibilities for weakly turbulent magnetized plasma: Electromagnetic formalism

This is a companion paper to the previous work [P. H. Yoon, Phys. Plasmas 31, 032309 (2024)] in which the nonlinear susceptibilities of weakly turbulent magnetized plasma are derived under a simplifying assumption of electrostatic interaction. The present paper extends the analysis to a general situation of electromagnetic interaction. The main novelty of the previous and present papers is that by employing the Bessel function addition theorem, the mathematical definitions for the susceptibilities are substantially simplified, a procedure that has not been discussed in the existing literature. In the present paper, a full set of Maxwell’s equations are considered in conjunction with the nonlinear Vlasov equation, which is solved by a perturbative method. The result is a fully general nonlinear susceptibility, given in tensorial form, which is applicable for weakly turbulent magnetized plasmas.

Materials Science↗

Artificial Neural Network Models for Octane Number and Octane Sensitivity: A Quantitative Structure Property Relationship Approach to Fuel Design

Octane sensitivity (OS), defined as the research octane number (RON) minus the motor octane number (MON) of a fuel, has gained interest among researchers due to its effect on knocking conditions in internal combustion engines. Compounds with a high OS enable higher efficiencies, especially within advanced compression ignition engines. RON/MON must be experimentally tested to determine OS, requiring time, funding, and specialized equipment. Thus, predictive models trained with existing experimental data and molecular descriptors (via quantitative structure-property relationships (QSPRs)) would allow for the preemptive screening of compounds prior to performing these experiments. Here, the present work proposes two methods for predicting the OS of a given compound: using artificial neural networks (ANNs) trained with QSPR descriptors to predict RON and MON individually to compute OS (derived octane sensitivity (dOS)), and using ANNs trained with QSPR descriptors to directly predict OS. Twenty-five ANNs were trained for both RON and MON and their test sets achieved an overall 6.4% and 5.2% error, respectively. Twenty-five additional ANNs were trained for both dOS and OS; dOS calculations were found to have 15.3% error while predicting OS directly resulted in 9.9% error. A chemical analysis of the top QSPR descriptors for RON/MON and OS is conducted, highlighting desirable structural features for high-performing molecules and offering insight into the inner mathematical workings of ANNs; such chemical interpretations study the interconnections between structural features, descriptors, and fuel performance showing that connectivity, structural diversity, and atomic hybridization consistently drive fuel performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Deep learning of parameterized equations with applications to uncertainty quantification

We propose a learning algorithm for discovering unknown parameterized dynamical systems by using observational data of the state variables. Our method is built upon and extends the recent work of discovering unknown dynamical systems, in particular those using deep neural network (DNN). We propose a DNN structure, largely based upon the residual network (ResNet), to not only learn the unknown form of the governing equation but also take into account the random effect embedded in the system, which is generated by the random parameters. Once the DNN model is successfully constructed, it is able to produce system prediction over longer term and for arbitrary parameter values. For uncertainty quantification, it allows us to conduct uncertainty analysis by evaluating solution statistics over the parameter space.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Dakota-NAERM Integration

This report presents the results of a collaborative effort under the Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) thrust area of the North American Energy Resilience Model (NAERM) program. The goal of the effort described in this report was to integrate the Dakota software with the NAERM software framework to demonstrate sensitivity analysis of a co-simulation for NAERM.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

COVID-19, An Exercise in Data Governance at Sandia National Laboratories

In April of 2020, Sandia National Laboratories had an urgent need to identify and manage the data that could be used to create mobile applications, models, reports, and visualizations to assist management in safely bringing the workforce onsite during the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple divisions volunteered to design and build software solutions; meanwhile, requests for new data sources, including duplicate requests, were inundating Information Technology (IT) and data owners. The Enterprise Data Governance Team was assigned to resolve obtaining and accessing new sources of data in an accelerated timeframe. Through successful collaboration with multiple stakeholders and domain owners across Sandia, the Enterprise Data Governance Team rapidly developed a centralized data strategy and solution for use in safeguarding the Sandia workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic. This foundation enabled teams to successfully develop solutions, including reports for executives and management as well as the data for modeling and scientific analysis.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

The Applicability of Unit Systems to High-Performance Computing Applications

Dimensional analysis is a key technique used to verify the soundness of scientific models. Most experts agree that engineering and scientific software would be made more reliable by integrating dimensional analysis in their type system. We explored how High Performance Computing (HPC) applications could integrate compile-time dimensional analysis. We started by investigating various implementation of unit systems for C++. Eventually, selecting the latest (and most advanced) one to apply to our test codes. We worked with code of increasing complexity, from a projectile trajectory calculation to the proxy-application Lulesh. This included our code, Springs-3D, which focuses on demonstrating language features while performing simple physic computations. Finally, our main contribution is a source-code analysis which extracts constraints on the dimension of all variables, functions, and constants in an application. This resulting system of equations is solved using the dimensions of a few of these objects. This analysis has the potential to greatly reduce the time spent performing dimensional analysis when refactoring application to use a representation of units.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

SCALE Sensitivity Tutorial [Slides]

In sensitivity analysis, we seek to quantify the degree to which fundamental data (i.e., nuclear data) influence a system’s response. In uncertainty analysis, we seek to quantify the degree to which uncertainty in fundamental data contributes to uncertainty in a system’s response. In SCALE, the TSUNAMI suite provides tools for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, similarity analysis, and nuclear data and covariance adjustment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

TRUST Contact Thermal Conductance (TRUST-CTC) Report: FY2022

The objective of the Delivery Environments (DE) Testbeds to Reduce Uncertainties in Simulations and Tests (TRUST) work package is to quantify and help increase confidence in specific areas of computational and experimental capabilities that are applicable to current and future delivery environments. More complete quantification of confidence in experimental and computational capabilities and the sufficient increase of confidence in those capabilities is critical to improving weapons engineering design, qualification, and assessment efforts that are critical to the current and future stockpile. Staff development will include cross-discipline training to provide engineers with experience in both numerical simulations and experimental methods. This work will use and provide feedback on analysis tools and experimental results databases for efficient and responsive engineering which are currently under development: engineering common model framework (ECMF), engineering quantification of margins and uncertainties (EQMU), test information management system (TIMS), and [WAVES] Analysis for Verified Engineering Simulation (WAVES).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Utilizing CellBox to Describe Varied Dynamical Systems

CellBox is a hybrid modeling framework that integrates machine-learning approaches with explicit mathematical modeling to determine the behavior of dynamical systems, intended for determining the complex interactions of molecule and phenotype within a cellular environment using perturbation/response-based data. The original work utilized analysis of a melanoma cell line, SK-Mel-133, which we sought to expand to and evaluate effectiveness in describing other nonlinear systems both within and outside of biology. We evaluated with two models. One model is based upon the free-fall of an object under a velocity-dependent drag force; this produced inherent perturbation/response data. The other model is based upon a form of mass-action molecular kinetics; for this, we ran the simulation to steady state in each species for each perturbation and select the steady state as input for CellBox. We determined that CellBox, outside of its original use case, can still strongly predict even non-biological dynamical systems in the small-perturbation regime, with r = 0.99977 to 0.85123, p < 0.05 for freefall. However, CellBox cannot accurately predict behavior within large-perturbation regimes, p >> 0.05 for freefall. In addition, we performed a naïve comparison of CellBox network structure to known network structure in the mass-action model to assess accuracy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Selection of Global Climate Model Data for Downscaling With Generative Machine Learning and Use in the Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems Project

The range of results from climate models and scenarios is important to the understanding of uncertainty in power planning analysis. A U.S. Department of Energy-funded analytic project called Power Planning for Alignment of Climate and Energy Systems is developing data and analytic methods to reflect the effects of climate change on key variables for power system planning, as part of the Grid Modernization Lab Consortium. This project will select and prepare global climate model results for use in power system planning models. A related report (Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis) assesses the performance of various global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 data archive for their historical skill with respect to energy system performance and for their future projections under multiple climate change scenarios. Building from that report, we describe the selection of a climate scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP] 2-4.5) and five climate models: TaiESM1, EC-Earth3-CC, GFDL-CM4, EC-Earth3-Veg, and MPI-ESM1-2-HR. We describe the model selection criteria, which were based on the quality of the match between model results under historical conditions and on the representation of the range of future values for several variables. These results will be downscaled via an open-source generative machine learning method called Super-Resolution for Renewable Energy Resource Data with Climate Change Impacts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Stability analysis of the Eulerian–Lagrangian finite volume methods for nonlinear hyperbolic equations in one space dimension

In this paper, we construct a novel Eulerian–Lagrangian finite volume (ELFV) method for nonlinear scalar hyperbolic equations in one space dimension. It is well known that the exact solutions to such problems may contain shocks though the initial conditions are smooth, and direct numerical methods may suffer from restricted time step sizes. To relieve the restriction, we propose an ELFV method, where the space-time domain was separated by the partition lines originated from the cell interfaces whose slopes are obtained following the Rakine–Hugoniot junmp condition. Unfortunately, to avoid the intersection of the partition lines, the time step sizes are still limited. To fix this gap, we detect effective troubled cells (ETCs) and carefully design the influence region of each ETC, within which the partitioned space-time regions are merged together to form a new one. Then with the new partition of the space-time domain, we theoretically prove that the proposed first-order scheme with Euler forward time discretization is total-variation-diminishing and maximum-principle-preserving with at least twice larger time step constraints than the classical first order Eulerian method for Burgers’ equation. Numerical experiments verify the optimality of the designed time step sizes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗