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At least 829 records · Page 46

Exploring the potential of using L-Band InSAR for the mapping of flooded vegetation in tropical wetlands

Wetlands play a critical role in global water and carbon cycles, yet monitoring their water extent remains difficult, particularly beneath dense vegetation. SAR-based techniques such as backscatter thresholding are limited by complex scattering mechanisms, while fully polarimetric SAR (PolSAR) data capable of detecting doublebounce scattering remain scarce. To address these challenges, this study evaluates the potential of Interferometric SAR (InSAR) for mapping water surfaces beneath vegetation, termed flooded vegetation, using the Atrato floodplain in Colombia as a case study. We develop an automated workflow combining InSAR fringe detection with local phase homogeneity analysis and random sampling of processing parameters to generate probabilistic flooded vegetation maps. Applied to ALOS PALSAR-1 L-band image pairs from 2007–2011, the workflow captures seasonal fluctuations in flooded extent ranging from 500 to 1,500 km2. Compared to other L-band SAR inundation products, the InSAR-based maps identify broader flooded areas, with ~70% agreement in pairwise comparisons. Around 84% of detections align with existing wetland inventories and seasonal changes correspond with regional hydrological indicators, including terrestrial water storage anomalies and water gauge measurements. PolSAR analysis shows that InSAR complements backscatter-based methods by detecting inundation in areas with weak double-bounce signals. These findings suggest that combining InSAR with backscatter-based methods can improve detection of flooded vegetation, which is especially relevant for the upcoming NISAR mission that will offer frequent global L-band observations.

Coastal inundation↗

Role of Fluorine in Chemomechanics of Cation-Disordered Rocksalt Cathodes

The role of nanoscale chemomechanical behavior in the macroscopic performance of functional materials is well recognized. For lithium-ion battery cathodes, tremendous effort has been devoted to the development of new chemistry and structure, yet fundamental understanding of the correlation between redox processes and mechanical properties of the novel materials lags behind. In the present study, we prepare large discrete single grains of Li-excess cation-disordered rocksalts (DRX) and investigate their chemomechanical behavior at the particle level, using nanoresolution X-ray and electron-based spectro-imaging and chemical mapping techniques. While irregular cracking upon lithium extraction leads to the eventual breakdown of the baseline DRX oxide (Li 1.2 Ti 0.4 Mn 0.4 O 2 ) particles at a high delithiation state, the fluorinated-DRX (Li 1.3 Ti 0.3 Mn 0.4 O 1.7 F 0.3 ) clearly displays aligned cracking along the <001> direction. The resulting periodicity in the cracking pattern enables the particles to retain their integrity and, consequently, improved electrochemical stability. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations showed that fluorination leads to increased concentration of Li+ on the (001) planes and preferential Li movements along the <001>-family directions, revealing the underlying mechanism for directional cracking. Overall, our study demonstrates the unique role of fluorine in modulating nanoscale chemomechanics, which in turn influences the evolution of charge and strain heterogeneity at the particle level. These insights provide important design guidelines in further improving DRX cathode materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

First-Principles Evaluation of Proton Hopping in Tetrahedral Oxide Motifs

Proton-conducting oxides (PCOs) are important materials used as ionic conductors for energy conversion technologies. Existing research efforts on PCO optimization and discovery generally focus on complex perovskite-based oxides that require doping and alloying to engineer oxygen deficiency and high proton conductivity. However, the variety of chemical compositions and coordination environments in oxides poses challenges for efficient materials design. In this computational study, we construct a database of simplified motifs to elucidate the relationship between fundamental materials chemistry and proton kinetics. Specifically, we focus on the zincblende crystal structure as a proxy for tetrahedral metal–oxide (M–O) coordination environments. We systematically quantified the effects of cation type, oxidation states, and M–O bond lengths on the proton hopping barrier, and found that strong M–O bonds and metal cations with large and variable oxidation states (e.g., Mo 6+ , V 5+ ) lead to smaller proton hopping barriers. By mapping the candidate cations and their preferred bond geometries onto materials databases such as the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database (ICSD) and Materials Project, we identified real materials containing the corresponding metal–oxide units. In general, we observed good agreement between the calculated proton hopping barriers obtained in real crystal structures and those predicted by our motif database. We also discuss the limitations of our model and possible future extensions to improve its predictive capabilities. Overall, our model provides a first step for the rational design and quick screening of energy-efficient PCOs.

organic↗

Structural Complexities in Sodium Ion Conductive Antiperovskite Revealed by Cryogenic Transmission Electron Microscopy

Here we use low-dose cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (cryo-TEM) to investigate the atomic-scale structure of antiperovskite Na 2 NH 2 BH 4 crystals by preserving the room-temperature cubic phase and carefully monitoring the electron dose. Via quantitative analysis of electron beam damage using selected area electron diffraction, we find cryogenic imaging provides 6-fold improvement in beam stability for this solid electrolyte. Cryo-TEM images obtained from flat crystals revealed the presence of a new, long-range-ordered supercell with a cubic phase. The supercell exhibits doubled unit cell dimensions of 9.4 Å × 9.4 Å as compared to the cubic lattice structure revealed by X-ray crystallography of 4.7 Å × 4.7 Å. The comparison between the experimental image and simulated potential map indicates the origin of the supercell is a vacancy ordering of sodium atoms. This work demonstrates the potential of using cryo-TEM imaging to study the atomic-scale structure of air- and electron-beam-sensitive antiperovskite-type solid electrolytes.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Generation of ultrahigh-brightness pre-bunched beams from a plasma cathode for X-ray free-electron lasers

The longitudinal coherence of X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) in the self-amplified spontaneous emission regime could be substantially improved if the high brightness electron beam could be pre-bunched on the radiated wavelength-scale. Here, we show that it is indeed possible to realize such current modulated electron beam at angstrom scale by exciting a nonlinear wake across a periodically modulated plasma-density downramp/plasma cathode. The density modulation turns on and off the injection of electrons in the wake while downramp provides a unique longitudinal mapping between the electrons’ initial injection positions and their final trapped positions inside the wake. The combined use of a downramp and periodic modulation of micrometers is shown to be able to produces a train of high peak current (17 kA) electron bunches with a modulation wavelength of 10’s of angstroms - orders of magnitude shorter than the plasma density modulation. The peak brightness of the nano-bunched beam can be $\textit{O}$(10 21 A/m 2 /rad 2 ) orders of magnitude higher than current XFEL beams. Such prebunched, high brightness electron beams hold the promise for compact and lower cost XEFLs that can produce nanometer radiation with hundreds of GW power in a 10s of centimeter long undulator.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Spectral characterization and performance of SPT-SLIM on-chip filterbank spectrometers

The South Pole Telescope Shirokoff Line Intensity Mapper (SPT-SLIM) experiment is a pathfinder for demonstrating the use of on-chip spectrometers for millimeter (mm) Line Intensity Mapping (LIM). We present spectral bandpass measurements of the SPT-SLIM spectrometer channels made on site using a Fourier Transform Spectrometer during the first deployment of SPT-SLIM in the 2024-2025 Austral summer season. We note the effect of FTS systematics on measurements of on-chip filterbank spectrometer resolutions and demonstrate a technique for measuring the narrow band passes of the SPT-SLIM filterbanks that improves beyond the intrinsic resolution of a Fourier Transform Spectrometer.

Benson, C. S. [Cardiff U.]↗

An On-Demand Electric Transit Case Study of New Rochelle, New York

Here, this article characterizes the performance and ridership patterns of an on-demand transit (ODT) service utilizing lightweight electric vehicles (EVs) in New Rochelle, New York. Ridership sociodemographics, travel patterns (both temporal and spatiotemporal), and energy use from the service were explored using travel and survey data from September 2019 through December 2023. The ODT service was found to be used more by women (nearly 60%) and younger demographics (>65% under the age of 42), with peak use in the middle of the day and a grocery store as a top origin and destination. The service was utilized primarily for short trips (86% under 2 mi), with approximately one-third of riders using the ODT service to connect to a train or bus. The costs associated with fueling/charging were compared for different types of fleet vehicles, and the small, right-sized EVs were found to have annual charging costs that were roughly half of the refueling costs for conventional hybrid vans, and 24 times lower than a fleet of diesel buses. Evaluating the vehicle fleet and mapping current socio-spatial travel demand can inform system performance, guide service area development, and support future planning such as expansion to nearby communities and transit hubs. The findings in this case study suggest that on-demand electric transit may be a significant and growing space for advancing highly valued public mobility services. Public transport interventions that consider right-sized, electric, on-demand vehicles can help improve mobility access and reduce energy use and refueling costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Light Water Sustainability Program: Optimizing Information Automation Using a New Method Based on System-Theoretic Process Analysis

This report describes the interim progress for research supporting the design and optimization of information automation systems for nuclear power plants. Much of the domestic nuclear fleet is currently focused on modernizing technologies and processes, including transitioning toward digitalization in the control room and elsewhere throughout the plant, along with a greater use of automation, artificial intelligence, robotics, and other emerging technologies. While there are significant opportunities to apply these technologies toward greater plant safety, efficiency, and overall cost-effectiveness, optimizing their design and avoiding potential safety and performance risks depends on ensuring that human-performance-related organizational and technical design issues are identified and addressed. This report describes modeling tools and techniques, based on sociotechnical system theory, to support these design goals and their application in the current research effort. The report is intended for senior nuclear energy stakeholders, including regulators, corporate management, and senior plant management. We have developed and employed a method to design an optimized information automation ecosystem (IAE) based on the systems-theoretic constructs underlying sociotechnical systems theory in general and the Systems-Theoretic Accident Modeling and Processes (STAMP) approach in particular. We argue that an IAE can be modeled as an interactive information control system whose behavior can be understood in terms of dynamic control and feedback relationships amongst the system’s technical and organizational components. Up to this point, we have employed a Causal Analysis based on STAMP (CAST) technique to examine a performance- and safety-related incident at an industry partner’s plant that involved the unintentional activation of an emergency diesel generator. This analysis provided insight into the behavior of the plant’s current information control structure within the context of a specific, significant event. Our ongoing analysis is focused on identifying near-term process improvements and longer-term design requirements for an optimized IAE system. The latter analyses will employ a second STAMP-derived technique, System-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA). STPA is a useful modeling tool for generating and analyzing actual or potential information control structures. Finally, we have begun modeling plantwide organizational relationships and processes. Organizational system modeling will supplement our CAST and STPA findings and provide a basis for mapping out a plantwide information control architecture. CAST analysis findings indicate an important underlying contributor to the incident under investigation, and a significant risk to information automation system performance, was perceived schedule pressure, which exposed weaknesses in interdepartmental coordination between and within responsible plant organizations and challenged the resilience of established plant processes, until a human caused the initiating event. These findings are discussed in terms of their risk to overall system performance and their implications for information automation system resilience and brittleness. We present two preliminary information automation models. The proactive issue resolution model is a test case of an information automation concept with significant near-term potential for application and subsequent reduction in significant plant events. The IAE model is a more general representation of a broader, plantwide information automation system. From our results, we have generated a set of preliminary system-level requirements and safety constraints. These requirements will be further developed over the remainder of our project in collaboration with nuclear industry subject matter experts and specialists in the technical systems under consideration. Additionally, we will continue to pursue the system analyses initiated in the first part of our effort, with a particular emphasis on STPA as the main tool to identify weak or weakening control structures that affect the resilience of organizations and programs. Our intent is to broaden the scope of the analysis from an individual use case to a related set of use cases (e.g., maintenance tasks, compliance tasks) with similar human-system performance challenges. This will enable more generalized findings to refine the Proactive Issue Resolution and IAE models, as well as their system-level requirements and safety constraints. We will use organizational system modeling analyses to supplement STPA findings and model development. We conclude the report with a set of summary recommendations and an initial draft list of system-level requirements and safety constraints for optimized information automation systems.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗

Subsurface Characterization of Hydraulic Fracture Test Site-2 (HFTS-2), Delaware Basin

Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site-2 (HFTS-2) is a field-based research experiment performed in the Wolfcamp Formation of the Permian (Delaware) Basin. This paper focuses on integration, advanced geological characterization, and 3D subsurface modeling of the comprehensive HFTS-2 dataset. The study showcases a multidisciplinary reservoir characterization approach that incorporates geology, petrophysics, geochemistry, geomechanics, microseismic, and subsurface engineering analysis. Subsurface characterization of organic-rich mudstone formations requires understanding complex hydraulic fracture network growth in relation to inherent lithology, geomechanical properties, and interaction with pre-existing natural fractures. This paper presents a characterization workflow incorporating pre- and post-stimulation subsurface data, unique to the HFTS-2 dataset. The study integrated: (1) rock properties from logs, cores, and thin sections; (2) natural and hydraulic fracture descriptions from cores and image logs; (3) local and regional stresses; (4) geomechanics; (5) microseismic; (6) fiber optic (FO) and bottomhole pressure gauge (BHPG) response; and (7) produced fluids analysis. During a stimulation treatment, creation of the stimulated rock volume (SRV) is influenced by several subsurface factors. Key contributing factors include structural context, stress conditions, lithology, facies architecture, pre-existing natural fractures, and geomechanical properties. The HFTS-2 subsurface data integration indicates that the SRV is comprised of a complex juxtaposition of hydraulic fracture swarms, as evidenced by image logs analysis, core description, and microseismic monitoring. The HFTS-2 microseismic event density was used to generate 3D heat maps that serve as a representative SRV footprint, corroborated by secondary datasets. These maps were further integrated with petrophysical and geomechanical characteristics, as well as responses from FO and BHPG, to estimate the lateral and vertical dimensions of the effective fractures. The geological characterization for the HFTS-2 dataset combined with 3D modeling for petrophysical and geomechanical properties provides a strong foundation for subsurface simulation and optimization studies. Downloaded from http://onepetro.org/URTECONF/proceedings-pdf/21URTC/1-21URTC/D011S005R001/2477501/urtec-2021-5243-ms.pdf/1 by Carol Worster on 28 February 2022 URTeC 5243 The workflow improved our understanding of HFTS-2 hydraulic fracture propagation and characteristics in relation to offset pressure depletion and interaction with pre-existing natural fractures. Analysis showed that fracture geometry varies by stage and by well, and a complex fracture network is generated with varying fracture density. The multidisciplinary workflow presented herein for integration and characterization serves as a foundation to evaluate completion efficiency and estimate areal and vertical stimulation and depletion extent for the project. Furthermore, the workflow and learnings can also be transferred to other unconventional plays.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improvements to CTF Code Verification and Unit Testing (FY2020)

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy created its first Energy Innovation Hub, which focuses on improving Light Water Reactors (LWRs) through Modeling and Simulation. This hub, named the Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL), attempts to characterize and understand LWR behavior under normal operating conditions and use any gained insights to improve their efficiency. In collaboration with North Carolina State University (NCSU), CASL has worked extensively on the thermal-hydraulic subchannel code Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays—Three Field (COBRA-TF). The NCSU/CASL version of COBRA-TF has been rebranded as CTF. This document focuses on code verification test problems that ensure CTF converges to the correct answer for the intended application. The suite of code verification tests are mapped to the underlying conservation equations of CTF, and significant gaps are addressed. Convergence behavior and numerical errors are quantified for each of the tests. Tests that converge at the correct rate to the corresponding analytic solution are incorporated into the CTF automated regression suite. A new verification utility is created for this purpose, which enables code verification by generalizing the process. For problems that do not behave correctly, the results are reported but the problem is not included in the regression suite. In addition to verification studies, this document also quantifies the existing tests of constitutive models. A few existing gaps are addressed by adding new unit tests.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

FY20 Improvements to CTF Code Verification and Unit Testing

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Energy created its first Energy Innovation Hub, which focuses on improving Light Water Reactors (LWRs) through Modeling and Simulation. This hub, named the Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of LWRs (CASL), attempts to characterize and understand LWR behavior under normal operating conditions and use any gained insights to improve their efficiency. In collaboration with North Carolina State University (NCSU), CASL has worked extensively on the thermal-hydraulic subchannel code Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays–Three Field (COBRA-TF). The NCSU/CASL version of COBRA-TF has been rebranded as CTF. This document focuses on code verification test problems that ensure CTF converges to the correct answer for the intended application. The suite of code verification tests are mapped to the underlying conservation equations of CTF, and significant gaps are addressed. Convergence behavior and numerical errors are quantified for each of the tests. Tests that converge at the correct rate to the corresponding analytic solution are incorporated into the CTF automated regression suite. A new verification utility is created for this purpose, which enables code verification by generalizing the process. For problems that do not behave correctly, the results are reported but the problem is not included in the regression suite. In addition to verification studies, this document also quantifies the existing tests of constitutive models. A few existing gaps are addressed by adding new unit tests.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

GPS-Based Gamma Survey for Characterizing and Decommissioning NORM Sites - 20389

Gamma survey techniques are an especially powerful decommissioning tool at naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) sites due to both the low cost to obtain data over a large spatial scale and the abundance of gamma emitters in the uranium and thorium decay series. Gamma surveys are executed by coupling a detector - most often a sodium iodide crystal - to a global positioning system (GPS), then reporting a location and gross gamma reading coincidentally to a data logger. Systems may be carried by workers or mounted to a car, all-terrain vehicle, or unmanned aerial system (UAS). The resulting data set provides a high-resolution but low precision map of the gamma radiation field over the area surveyed. Frequently this map is also correlated to soil concentrations of NORM radionuclides (most often, Ra-226) and/or exposure rate. Gamma survey parameters such as movement speed, transect spacing, and data logging frequency define the spatial resolution of the resulting surface, and can be optimized depending on the desired survey sensitivity. This paper examines gamma survey as a tool for decommissioning NORM sites and provides an overview of current gamma survey technology designed to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the decommissioning process. Topics to be discussed in the paper include: - An overview of gamma survey systems, and the utility of different delivery vehicles depending on desired cost, desired spatial resolution, and site topography. - The influence of physical detector characteristics on detection sensitivity and survey planning. - The tradeoff between high-resolution and large spatial extent, but inherently uncertain data, and low-resolution, low spatial extent, but highly certain data, as well as the specific utility of each of these types of data during NORM facility decommissioning. - Confounding variables that may limit the utility of gamma survey at some sites (e.g., radon gas and spatial heterogeneity / hot spots), and methods to plan for and control these conditions. Results show that the confounding variables, such as radon and data output can greatly influence the overall data quality associated with the decommissioning process. In addition, the use of real-time and aerial survey platforms provides a method for ensuring proper spatial extent of the data. When applied thoughtfully, gamma survey is a powerful tool for detecting NORM radionuclides in the environment and a cost-effective technique for identifying areas requiring remediation. However, entities performing or using gamma survey as a decommissioning tool must be aware of both its advantages and its limitations before basing remediation or regulatory action on gamma survey results. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Preliminary Safety Analysis for a 400-kW Molten Salt Nuclear Battery

The Molten Salt Nuclear battery (MsNB) is a microreactor based on technology developed and operated at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in the 1960s [1]. But the MsNB has been simplified by removing pumps and valves for improved reliability and safety. The MsNB can safely provide up to 10 MWe of power for up to 10 years and potentially it can be transported by air, truck, and rail thanks due to to its small footprint. A computer model has been developed to represent a prototypical 400-kW MsNB using the ANL system code SAM [2]. The model has been used to produce a reactor thermal-hydraulic performance map and perform analysis of unprotected loss of heat sink accident scenario.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Transfer learning-based soybean LAI estimations by integrating PROSAIL, UAV, and PlanetScope imagery

Accurate Leaf Area Index (LAI) estimations at the soybean plot scale is achievable using high-resolution Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) imagery and field measurement samples. However, the limited coverage of UAV flights restricts large-scale remote sensing monitoring in expansive soybean fields. This study leverages the broad coverage and 3-m resolution of PlanetScope satellite imagery to extend LAI prediction from UAV to satellite scales through transfer learning, using UAV-scale LAI estimates as a benchmark to validate cross-scale consistency. To address this challenge, this study proposed the LAI-TransNet, a two-stage transfer learning framework designed for precise and scalable soybean LAI prediction across large areas, demonstrating its effectiveness in cross-scale monitoring. In Stage 1, a UAV-scale benchmark is established using PROSAIL-simulated UAV reflectance data (UAV-Sim) and field-measured soybean LAI. Traditional machine learning, deep learning, and transfer learning models are trained on a hybrid UAV-Sim and field-measured dataset (UAV-Sim_Measured), with the transfer learning model CNN-TL, fine-tuned using pre-trained weights derived from UAV-Sim, achieving the highest accuracy (R 2 = 0.81, RMSE = 0.64 m 2 /m 2 , rRMSE = 11.5 %). In Stage 2, LAI-TransNet is developed by fine-tuning the CNN-TL model on PlanetScope simulated data (PS-Sim), preprocessed via cross-domain mapping to align UAV and satellite spectral features. Real PlanetScope imagery is corrected for reflectance consistency with reference to UAV imagery spectral profiles. LAI-TransNet outperforms other deep learning models trained directly on PS-Sim (R 2 = 0.69 vs. 0.60–0.63), ensuring robust cross-scale consistency. In conclusion, by bridging UAV and satellite scales, LAI-TransNet enables large-scale soybean LAI monitoring, enhancing precision agriculture management through improved monitoring with the PlanetScope imagery.

Leaf area index (LAI)↗

Quantitative assessment of selenium diffusion and passivation in CdSeTe solar cells probed by spatially resolved cathodoluminescence

The introduction of selenium in CdSeTe/CdTe solar cells has led to improved device performances attributed to the passivation of bulk defects. In this work, high-resolution cathodoluminescence experiments are performed on a series of CdSeTe/CdTe thin films with different Se concentrations to quantify the mechanisms and the passivation role of Se. We demonstrate a universal dependence between the Se concentration and the radiative efficiency and a ten-fold enhancement of the luminescence between CdTe and CdSe 0.4 Te 0.6 . Raw luminescence maps are converted into maps of the Se concentration, revealing its graded profile within the stack. We demonstrate the diffusion of Se along CdTe grain boundaries induced by the cadmium chloride annealing treatment and determine the diffusion coefficients, which are more than eight times higher at grain boundaries than in grain interiors. These results provide microscopic insights into the distribution of Se and its impact on the passivation of CdSeTe/CdTe solar cells.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Laboratory earthquake forecasting: A machine learning competition

Earthquake prediction, the long-sought holy grail of earthquake science, continues to confound Earth scientists. Could we make advances by crowdsourcing, drawing from the vast knowledge and creativity of the machine learning (ML) community? We used Google’s ML competition platform, Kaggle, to engage the worldwide ML community with a competition to develop and improve data analysis approaches on a forecasting problem that uses laboratory earthquake data. The competitors were tasked with predicting the time remaining before the next earthquake of successive laboratory quake events, based on only a small portion of the laboratory seismic data. The more than 4,500 participating teams created and shared more than 400 computer programs in openly accessible notebooks. Complementing the now well-known features of seismic data that map to fault criticality in the laboratory, the winning teams employed unexpected strategies based on rescaling failure times as a fraction of the seismic cycle and comparing input distribution of training and testing data. In addition to yielding scientific insights into fault processes in the laboratory and their relation with the evolution of the statistical properties of the associated seismic data, the competition serves as a pedagogical tool for teaching ML in geophysics. The approach may provide a model for other competitions in geosciences or other domains of study to help engage the ML community on problems of significance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗