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NASA NTRS2014

Irrigation as an Historical Climate Forcing

Irrigation is the single largest anthropogenic water use, a modification of the land surface that significantly affects surface energy budgets, the water cycle, and climate. Irrigation, however, is typically not included in standard historical general circulation model (GCM) simulations along with other anthropogenic and natural forcings. To investigate the importance of irrigation as an anthropogenic climate forcing, we conduct two 5-member ensemble GCM experiments. Both are setup identical to the historical forced (anthropogenic plus natural) scenario used in version 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, but in one experiment we also add water to the land surface using a dataset of historically estimated irrigation rates. Irrigation has a negligible effect on the global average radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere, but causes significant cooling of global average surface air temperatures over land and dampens regional warming trends. This cooling is regionally focused and is especially strong in Western North America, the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and Asia. Irrigation enhances cloud cover and precipitation in these same regions, except for summer in parts of Monsoon Asia, where irrigation causes a reduction in monsoon season precipitation. Irrigation cools the surface, reducing upward fluxes of longwave radiation (increasing net longwave), and increases cloud cover, enhancing shortwave reflection (reducing net shortwave). The relative magnitude of these two processes causes regional increases (northern India) or decreases (Central Asia, China) in energy availability at the surface and top of the atmosphere. Despite these changes in net radiation, however, climate responses are due primarily to larger magnitude shifts in the Bowen ratio from sensible to latent heating. Irrigation impacts on temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables are regionally significant, even while other anthropogenic forcings (anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases, etc.) dominate the long term climate evolution in the simulations. To better constrain the magnitude and uncertainties of irrigation-forced climate anomalies, irrigation should therefore be considered as another important anthropogenic climate forcing in the next generation of historical climate simulations and multimodel assessments.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Combined Amplitude and Frequency Measurements for Non-Contacting Turbomachinery Blade Vibration

A method and apparatus for measuring the vibration of rotating blades, such as turbines, compressors, fans, or pumps, including sensing the return signal from projected energy and/or field changes from a plurality of sensors mounted on the machine housing. One or more of the sensors has a narrow field of measurement and the data is processed to provide the referenced time of arrival of each blade, and therefore the blade tip deflection due to vibration. One or more of the sensors has a wide field of measurement, providing a time history of the approaching and receding blades, and the data is processed to provide frequency content and relative magnitudes of the active mode(s) of blade vibration. By combining the overall tip deflection magnitude with the relative magnitudes of the active modes, the total vibratory stress state of the blade can be determined.

Platt, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Fuel-Efficient Descent and Landing Guidance Logic for a Safe Lunar Touchdown

The landing of a crewed lunar lander on the surface of the Moon will be the climax of any Moon mission. At touchdown, the landing mechanism must absorb the load imparted on the lander due to the vertical component of the lander's touchdown velocity. Also, a large horizontal velocity must be avoided because it could cause the lander to tip over, risking the life of the crew. To be conservative, the worst-case lander's touchdown velocity is always assumed in designing the landing mechanism, making it very heavy. Fuel-optimal guidance algorithms for soft planetary landing have been studied extensively. In most of these studies, the lander is constrained to touchdown with zero velocity. With bounds imposed on the magnitude of the engine thrust, the optimal control solutions typically have a "bang-bang" thrust profile: the thrust magnitude "bangs" instantaneously between its maximum and minimum magnitudes. But the descent engine might not be able to throttle between its extremes instantaneously. There is also a concern about the acceptability of "bang-bang" control to the crew. In our study, the optimal control of a lander is formulated with a cost function that penalizes both the touchdown velocity and the fuel cost of the descent engine. In this formulation, there is not a requirement to achieve a zero touchdown velocity. Only a touchdown velocity that is consistent with the capability of the landing gear design is required. Also, since the nominal throttle level for the terminal descent sub-phase is well below the peak engine thrust, no bound on the engine thrust is used in our formulated problem. Instead of bangbang type solution, the optimal thrust generated is a continuous function of time. With this formulation, we can easily derive analytical expressions for the optimal thrust vector, touchdown velocity components, and other system variables. These expressions provide insights into the "physics" of the optimal landing and terminal descent maneuver. These insights could help engineers to achieve a better "balance" between the conflicting needs of achieving a safe touchdown velocity, a low-weight landing mechanism, low engine fuel cost, and other design goals. In comparing the computed optimal control results with the preflight landing trajectory design of the Apollo-11 mission, we noted interesting similarities between the two missions.

guidance logic↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Effectiveness of Magnetic Shielding in High-Isp Hall Thrusters

A series of numerical simulations and experiments have been performed to assess the effectiveness of magnetic shielding in a Hall thruster operating in the discharge voltage range of 300-700 V (Isp 2000-2700 s) at 6 kW, and 800 V (Isp 3000) at 9 kW. In this paper we report on the simulation results and their validation with experimental measurements. At 6 kW the magnetic field topology with which we recently demonstrated highly effective magnetic shielding at 300 V was retained for all other discharge voltages; only the magnitude of the field was changed to achieve optimum thruster performance. It is found that magnetic shielding remains highly effective for all discharge voltages studied. Maximum erosion rates that remain fairly constant across the range of 300-700 V are computed, with values not exceeding 10-2 mm/kh. Such rates are ~3 orders of magnitude less than those observed in the unshielded version of the same thruster at 300 V. At 9 kW and 800 V, saturation of the magnetic circuit did not permit us to attain precisely the same magnetic shielding topology as that employed during the 6-kW operation since this thruster was not designed to operate at this condition. Consequently, the maximum erosion rate at the inner wall is found to be ~1 order of magnitude higher (~10-1 mm/kh) than that at the 6-kW level. At the outer wall the ion energy is below the sputtering yield threshold so no measurable erosion is expected. The reasons behind the effectiveness of magnetic shielding at higher discharge voltages are discussed.

magnetic-field-aligned-mesh (MFAM) code↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evidence Report: Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Other Degenerative Tissue Effects from Radiation Exposure

Occupational radiation exposure from the space environment may result in non-cancer or non-CNS degenerative tissue diseases, such as cardiovascular disease, cataracts, and respiratory or digestive diseases. However, the magnitude of influence and mechanisms of action of radiation leading to these diseases are not well characterized. Radiation and synergistic effects of radiation cause DNA damage, persistent oxidative stress, chronic inflammation, and accelerated tissue aging and degeneration, which may lead to acute or chronic disease of susceptible organ tissues. In particular, cardiovascular pathologies such as atherosclerosis are of major concern following gamma-ray exposure. This provides evidence for possible degenerative tissue effects following exposures to ionizing radiation in the form of the GCR or SPEs expected during long-duration spaceflight. However, the existence of low dose thresholds and dose-rate and radiation quality effects, as well as mechanisms and major risk pathways, are not well-characterized. Degenerative disease risks are difficult to assess because multiple factors, including radiation, are believed to play a role in the etiology of the diseases. As additional evidence is pointing to lower, space-relevant thresholds for these degenerative effects, particularly for cardiovascular disease, additional research with cell and animal studies is required to quantify the magnitude of this risk, understand mechanisms, and determine if additional protection strategies are required.The NASA PEL (Permissive Exposure Limit)s for cataract and cardiovascular risks are based on existing human epidemiology data. Although animal and clinical astronaut data show a significant increase in cataracts following exposure and a reassessment of atomic bomb (A-bomb) data suggests an increase in cardiovascular disease from radiation exposure, additional research is required to fully understand and quantify these adverse outcomes at lower doses (less than 0.5 gray (SI unit for ionizing radiation dosage, i.e. one joule of radiation energy per one kilogram of matter)) to facilitate risk prediction. This risk has considerable uncertainty associated with it, and no acceptable model for projecting degenerative tissue risk is currently available. In particular, risk factors such as obesity, alcohol, and tobacco use can act as confounding factors that contribute to the large uncertainties. The PELs could be violated under certain scenarios, including following a large SPE (solar proton event) or long-term GCR (galactic cosmic ray) exposure. Specifically, for a Mars mission, the accumulated dose is sufficiently high that epidemiology data and preliminary risk estimates suggest a significant risk for cardiovascular disease. Ongoing research in this area is intended to provide the evidence base for accurate risk quantification to determine criticality for extended duration missions. Data specific to the space radiation environment must be compiled to quantify the magnitude of this risk to decrease the uncertainty in current PELs and to determine if additional protection strategies are required. New research results could lead to estimates of cumulative radiation risk from CNS and degenerative tissue diseases that, when combined with the cancer risk, may have major negative impacts on mission design, costs, schedule, and crew selection. The current report amends an earlier report (Human Research Program Requirements Document, HRP-47052, Rev. C, dated Jan 2009) in order to provide an update of evidence since 2009.

Patel, Zarana↗
NASA NTRS2015

Solar Signals in CMIP-5 Simulations: The Stratospheric Pathway

The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5). Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period approximately 1850-2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP-5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (approximately 70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response. A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short-wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modeled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979-2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high-pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high- and low-top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.

stratosphere↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Comparison of Radiometric Calibration Techniques for Lunar Impact Flashes

Video observations of lunar impact flashes have been made by a number of researchers since the late 1990's and the problem of determination of the impact energies has been approached in different ways (Bellot Rubio, et al., 2000 [1], Bouley, et al., 2012.[2], Suggs, et al. 2014 [3], Rembold and Ryan 2015 [4], Ortiz, et al. 2015 [5]). The wide spectral response of the unfiltered video cameras in use for all published measurements necessitates color correction for the standard filter magnitudes available for the comparison stars. An estimate of the color of the impact flash is also needed to correct it to the chosen passband. Magnitudes corrected to standard filters are then used to determine the luminous energy in the filter passband according to the stellar atmosphere calibrations of Bessell et al., 1998 [6]. Figure 1 illustrates the problem. The camera pass band is the wide black curve and the blue, green, red, and magenta curves show the band passes of the Johnson-Cousins B, V, R, and I filters for which we have calibration star magnitudes. The blackbody curve of an impact flash of temperature 2800K (Nemtchinov, et al., 1998 [7]) is the dashed line. This paper compares the various photometric calibration techniques and how they address the color corrections necessary for the calculation of luminous energy (radiometry) of impact flashes. This issue has significant implications for determination of luminous efficiency, predictions of impact crater sizes for observed flashes, and the flux of meteoroids in the 10s of grams to kilogram size range.

Suggs, R.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Phase-Angle Dependence of Determinations of Diameter, Albedo, and Taxonomy: A Case Study of NEO 3691 Bede

Parameters important for NEO risk assessment and mitigation include Near-Earth Object diameter and taxonomic classification, which translates to surface composition. Diameters of NEOs are derived from the thermal fluxes measured by WISE, NEOWISE, Spitzer Warm Mission and ground-based telescopes including the IRTF and UKIRT. Diameter and its coupled parameters Albedo and IR beaming parameter (a proxy for thermal inertia and/or surface roughness) are dependent upon the phase angle, which is the Sun-target-observer angle. Orbit geometries of NEOs, however, typically provide for observations at phase angles greater than 20 degrees. At higher phase angles, the observed thermal emission is sampling both the day and night sides of the NEO. We compare thermal models for NEOs that exclude (NEATM) and include (NESTM) night-side emission. We present a case study of NEO 3691 Bede, which is a higher albedo object, X (Ec) or Cgh taxonomy, to highlight the range of H magnitudes for this object (depending on the albedo and phase function slope parameter G), and to examine at different phase angles the taxonomy and thermal model fits for this NEO. Observations of 3691 Bede include our observations with IRTF+SpeX and with the 10 micrometer UKIRT+Michelle instrument, as well as WISE and Spitzer Warm mission data. By examining 3691 Bede as a case study, we highlight the interplay between the derivation of basic physical parameters and observing geometry, and we discuss the uncertainties in H magnitude, taxonomy assignment amongst the X-class (P, M, E), and diameter determinations. Systematic dependencies in the derivation of basic characterization parameters of H-magnitude, diameter, albedo and taxonomy with observing geometry are important to understand. These basic characterization parameters affect the statistical assessments of the NEO population, which in turn, affects the assignment of statistically-assessed basic parameters to discovered but yet-to-be-fully-characterized NEOs.

Albedo and taxonomy↗
NASA NTRS2016

Photospheric Current Spikes and Their Possible Association with Flares - Results from an HMI Data Driven Model

A data driven, near photospheric magnetohydrodynamic model predicts spikes in the horizontal current density, and associated resistive heating rate per unit volume Q. The spikes appear as increases by orders of magnitude above background values in neutral line regions (NLRs) of active regions (ARs). The largest spikes typically occur a few hours to a few days prior to M or X flares. The spikes correspond to large vertical derivatives of the horizontal magnetic field. The model takes as input the photospheric magnetic field observed by the Helioseismic & Magnetic Imager (HMI) on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite. This 2.5 D field is used to determine an analytic expression for a 3 D magnetic field, from which the current density, vector potential, and electric field are computed in every AR pixel for 14 ARs. The field is not assumed to be force-free. The spurious 6, 12, and 24 hour Doppler periods due to SDO orbital motion are filtered out of the time series of the HMI magnetic field for each pixel using a band pass filter. The subset of spikes analyzed at the pixel level are found to occur on HMI and granulation scales of 1 arcsec and 12 minutes. Spikes are found in ARs with and without M or X flares, and outside as well as inside NLRs, but the largest spikes are localized in the NLRs of ARs with M or X flares. The energy to drive the heating associated with the largest current spikes comes from bulk flow kinetic energy, not the electromagnetic field, and the current density is highly non-force free. The results suggest that, in combination with the model, HMI is revealing strong, convection driven, non-force free heating events on granulation scales, and that it is plausible these events are correlated with subsequent M or X flares. More and longer time series need to be analyzed to determine if such a correlation exists. Above an AR dependent threshold value of Q, the number of events N(Q) with heating rates greater than or equal to Q obeys a scale invariant power law distribution for each AR given by N(Q) varies Q(sup -s), where 0.40 less than or equal to S less than or equal to 0.53, with a mean and standard deviation across the 14 ARs of 0.47 and 0.045, showing there is little variation of S from one AR to another. These properties of N(Q) are in close agreement with those of the distribution N(E) for the total energy E of solar flares, determined from observations to be N(E) = constant x E(sup -alpha). From observations of nanoflares in the 0.7 to 4 MK range, and from observations of flares in hard X-rays, it is found that 0.51 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.57, and 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.6, respectively (Crosby et al. 1993, Sol. Phys., 143, 275; Aschwanden & Parnell 2002, ApJ, 572, 1048). Observations also show that, as is found here for the exponent S, there is little variation of alpha with AR (Wheatland 2000, ApJ, 532, 1209), indicating N(E) and N(Q) are largely independent of individual properties of ARs such as area, total magnetic flux, and distribution of current density (i.e. non-potentiality). Therefore the power law scaling of the photospheric heating rate Q computed here on granulation scales is essentially identical to that found for coronal observations of flare energies on scales 1-2 orders of magnitude larger. This suggests the physical mechanisms that cause Q and coronal flares are closely related. It seems likely that Q is the signature of a magnetic reconnection process in an energy range and volume orders of magnitude smaller than those of flares. In this context, at least the larger spikes in Q might be signatures of UV photospheric or lower chromospheric bombs in which plasma is heated to temperatures approximately 10(exp -5) K (Peter et al. 2014, Science 346, 1255726; Judge 2015, ApJ, 808, 116). In addition, lattice based avalanche simulations of flare energy release predict 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.5, while analytic, fractal-diffusive self-organized criticality models predict 0.4 less than or equal to alpha less than or equal to 0.67, in excellent agreement with observations, and the results presented here (Aschwanden & Parnell 2002, ApJ, 572, 1048; Aschwanden 2012, A&A, 539, A2; Aschwanden 2013, in "Self Organized Criticality Systems"; Aschwanden et al. 2016, SSR, 198, 47).

Goodman, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2017

Impact of MODIS Sensor Calibration Updates on Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Reflectance and Albedo Trends

We evaluate Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface reflectance and albedo trends using the newly released Collection 6 (C6) MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) products over the period 2001-2016. We find that the correction of MODIS sensor degradation provided in the new C6 data products reduces the magnitude of the surface reflectance and albedo decline trends obtained from previous MODIS data (i.e., Collection 5, C5). Collection 5 and 6 data product analysis over GrIS is characterized by surface (i.e., wet vs. dry) and elevation (i.e., 500-2000 m, 2000 m and greater) conditions over the summer season from 1 June to 31 August. Notably, the visible-wavelength declining reflectance trends identified in several bands of MODIS C5 data from previous studies are only slightly detected at reduced magnitude in the C6 versions over the dry snow area. Declining albedo in the wet snow and ice area remains over the MODIS record in the C6 product, albeit at a lower magnitude than obtained using C5 data. Further analyses of C6 spectral reflectance trends show both reflectance increases and decreases in select bands and regions, suggesting that several competing processes are contributing to Greenland Ice Sheet albedo change. Investigators using MODIS data for other ocean, atmosphere and/or land analyses are urged to consider similar re-examinations of trends previously established using C5 data.

radiative forcing↗
NASA NTRS2017

Biosignatures in the Context of Low Energy Flux

Many of the features that are thought of as biosignatures - including the mediation of chemical and physical processes with speed, specificity, and selectivity - result directly or indirectly from life's unique capability to mediate and direct energy flux. As such, it is important to consider the impact that differences in energy flux may have on the quantity and quality of evidence for life. Earth differs from every other body in our solar system in the magnitude of biologically-usable energy flux into a liquid water environment. On a global basis, the capture of light energy into photosynthesis and the flux of chemical energy represented in the products of that photosynthesis (organic material + O2) are about six and four orders of magnitude larger, respectively, than the flux of energy represented in geochemical sources. Our conception of what an inhabited world "looks like" and our intuition about how to search for life are based in this high-energy context. Energy fluxes on worlds beyond Earth may be better approximated by the million-fold smaller flux provided to Earth's biosphere by geochemical sources. As a result, the nature, abundance, and quality of evidence for life that could be expected on an inhabited extraterrestrial world within our solar system may differ profoundly from that found on Earth. Understanding this potential difference in quantitative terms provides important context for the formulation of life detection strategies. The influence of energy flux on biosignatures can be evaluated through reference to the two basic purposes into which life partitions energy flux: (1) Life expends energy to sustain existing biomass in a metabolic steady state (metabolically functional but non-growing). The formal representation of this relationship in the traditional microbiology literature equates biomass directly with energy flux. The direct implication is that worlds having lower energy flux will have correspondingly lower potential to support biomass. Life detection strategies that directly target extant organisms should therefore be prepared to encounter average biomass densities that may be many orders of magnitude smaller than those found in most of Earth's surface environments (2) Life expends energy to synthesize new biomass. An end-member case in which new biomass is created at the energy-limited rate and the corresponding cells are immediately destroyed (so that the energy partitioned to cell maintenance is minimized) establishes an upper bound on the rate at which biological material can enter a bulk global pool. For a specified bulk concentration [i] of any particular biological compound, i, or for biologically produced matter overall, this synthesis rate, R (sub i), defines a characteristic time scale tau (sub i) equals [i] divided by R (sub i). tau (sub i) can be thought of as (a) the minimum time required for biosynthesis to yield a specific bulk concentration (e.g., a detection threshold) of i, and (b) the average residence time of i within a bulk pool when [i] is held in steady state through a balance between biosynthesis and attrition by physical, chemical, or biological consumption. tau (sub i) becomes an important quantity in considering the potential utility of enantiomeric excess (as a product of homochiral biosynthesis) as a biosignature. Spontaneous racemization of amino acids acts to "erase" the signature of homochiral synthesis over time scales that may range from hundreds to hundreds of thousands of years, depending on temperature. For environments in which low energy flux translates to low rates of biosynthesis, including the synthesis of homochiral amino acids, amino acid residence times in pools having detectable concentrations may compare to or significantly exceed the time scale for racemization. This and similar consequences of long residence times should be considered in the formulation of life detection strategies based on detection of biologically-produced species. Fluxes of biologically-useful energy on potentially habitable worlds within our solar system are, at present, not well constrained. Improving such constraint has the potential to inform priorities in the formulation and targeting of search-for-life strategies, based on the implications of energy flux for the abundance and quality of biosignatures overall, and in specific categories.

ENERGY FLUX↗
NASA NTRS2011

Limits on Achievable Intensity Reduction with an Optical Occulter

Deep shadowing of a normally incident plane wave by an opaque circular disk is partially negated by the formation of a region of strong intensity surrounding the axis passing normally through the disk center. This local intensity enhancement, historically referred to as the Poisson Spot (also known as the Spot of Arago), has been the principal source of difficulties in applications where a significant reduction of the incident intensity is essential. In particular, the NASA Terrestrial Planet Finder's (TPF) mission requires suppression of direct starlight by at least 10 orders of magnitude over the entire visible spectral range. One technique that has been proposed for blocking the direct starlight is to use a rotationally symmetric disk with petallike segments along its boundary. We find that, even though such configurations could, indeed, theoretically provide the desired intensity reduction, they would require unreasonably small radii of curvature at the petals' tips (in the range of micrometers). When the radii of curvature are increased to 3 mm, the intensity reduction drops to a modest 5 to 6 orders of magnitude. Given that for the NASA's TPF mission the proposed occulter radius would be on the order of 25 m, even the 3 mm radius of curvature would be too small for any practical implementation. Further increases of the radius of curvature result in progressively poorer intensity suppression. As an alternative solution we propose an apodized circular disk. We show that with an optimized apodization function, intensity reductions of at least 10 orders of magnitude can be achieved over the entire visible spectral range. Numerical results are presented for parameters appropriate to the NASA TPF mission.

Wasylkiwskyj, Wasyl↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Implications of Tides on the Mimas Ocean Hypothesis

We investigate whether a present-day global ocean within Mimas is compatible with the lack of tectonic activity on its surface by computing tidal stresses for ocean-bearing interior structure models derived from observed librations. We find that, for the suite of compatible rheological models, peak surface tidal stresses caused by Mimas' high eccentricity would range from a factor of 2 smaller to an order of magnitude larger than those on tidally active Europa. Thermal stresses from a freezing ocean, or a past higher eccentricity, would enhance present-day tidal stresses, exceeding the magnitudes associated with Europa's ubiquitous tidally driven fractures and, in some cases, the failure strength of ice in laboratory studies. Therefore, in order for Mimas to have an ocean, its ice shell cannot fail at the stress values implied for Europa. Furthermore, if Mimas' ocean is freezing out, the ice shell must also be able to withstand thermal stresses that could be an order of magnitude higher than the failure strength of laboratory ice samples. In light of these challenges, we consider an ocean-free Mimas to be the most straightforward model, best supported by our tidal stress analysis.

Rhoden, Alyssa Rose↗
NASA NTRS2018

K2 Precision Lightcurve: Twelve Days in the Pluto-Charon System

The Kepler spacecraft's imaging photometer monitored the Pluto system from October-December 2015 during Campaign 7 of the K2 extended mission. Kepler obtained an unprecedented and fortuitous nearly continuous 12-Pluto day lightcurve from measurements acquired every 30 min using long cadence sampling. This 3-month-long baseline anchors the Pluto+Charon lightcurve near the time of the New Horizons July 2015 encounter, observing at solar phase angles between 1.16° and 1.74°. Long-term modeling of Pluto's lightcurve will ultimately reveal its long-term seasonal variation. K2's combined Pluto+Charon lightcurves measured at this epoch have an average total amplitude of 0.120+/- 0.006, 0.07 magnitudes smaller than the amplitude predicted by a static frost model (Buie and Tholen, 1989) projected from Hubble Space Telescope surface maps (Buie et al., 1992). Subtracting a static Charon lightcurve from the Pluto+Charon K2 lightcurve produces the same results. Likewise, we subtract each rotation model from the model for the first full rotation and find that the average difference of all variations is 0.017 +/- 0.008 magnitudes. Moreover, the difference between the first and last K2 rotation is 0.005 magnitudes, implying that there are no significant changes in the lightcurve during the 3 months of K2 observations. These results are consistent with seasonal transport on Pluto's surface and the predictions of Buratti et al. (2015a). However, a detailed understanding of the surface-atmosphere interactions associated with these phenomena requires decades of monitoring.

Benecchi, S. D.↗
NASA NTRS2018

An Artificial Neural Network for Inferring Solar Wind Proxies at Mars

We present a novel method to determine solar wind proxies from sheath measurements at Mars. Specifically, we develop an artificial neural network (ANN) to simultaneously infer seven solar wind proxies: ion density, ion speed, ion temperature, and interplanetary magnetic field magnitude and its vector components, using spacecraft measurements of ion moments, magnetic field magnitude, magnetic field components in the sheath, and the solar extreme ultraviolet flux. The ANN was trained and tested using3 years of data from the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft. When compared with MAVEN spacecraft's in situ measured values of the solar wind parameters, we find that the ANN proxies for the solar wind ion density, ion speed, ion temperature, and interplanetary magnetic field magnitude havepercentage differences of 50% or less for 84.4%, 99.9%, 86.8%, and 79.8% of the instances, respectively. Forthe cone angle and clock angle proxies, 69.1% and 53.3% of instances, respectively, have angle differences of 30* or less.

Neural Network↗
NASA NTRS2018

Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates over the Arctic Ocean and Its Peripheral Seas from Reanalyses

Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean has a significant impact on the basin-scale freshwater and energy budgets but is one of the most poorly constrained variables in atmospheric reanalyses. Precipitation controls the snow cover on sea ice, which impedes the exchange of energy between the ocean and atmosphere, inhibiting sea ice growth. Thus, accurate precipitation amounts are needed to inform sea ice modeling, especially for the production of thickness estimates from satellite altimetry freeboard data. However, obtaining a quantitative estimate of the precipitation distribution in the Arctic is notoriously difficult because of a number of factors, including a lack of reliable, long-term in situ observations; difficulties in remote sensing over sea ice; and model biases in temperature and moisture fields and associated uncertainty of modeled cloud microphysical processes in the polar regions. Here, we compare precipitation estimates over the Arctic Ocean from eight widely used atmospheric reanalyses over the period 2000–16 (nominally the ‘‘new Arctic’’). We find that the magnitude, frequency, and phase of precipitation vary drastically, although interannual variability is similar. Reanalysis-derived precipitation does not increase with time as expected; however, an increasing trend of higher fractions of liquid precipitation (rainfall) is found. When compared with drifting ice mass balance buoys, three reanalyses (ERA-Interim, MERRA, and NCEP R2) produce realistic magnitudes and temporal agreement with observed precipitation events, while two products [MERRA, version 2 (MERRA-2), and CFSR] show large, implausible magnitudes in precipitation events. All the reanalyses tend to produce overly frequent Arctic precipitation. Future work needs to be undertaken to determine the specific factors in reanalyses that contribute to these discrepancies in the new Arctic.

Mcpartland, Linette N.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Visualization and Quantification of Rotor Tip Vortices in Helicopter Flows

Helicopter aeromechanics encompasses a highly vortical flow field. The vortices generated at each blade tip contain unsteady, complex, three-dimensional structures, which interact with each other, other blades, the fuselage and various components of the helicopter. It is crucial to understand vortex kinematics and their subsequent dynamic evolution. Much research has been devoted to the understanding of helicopter vortex dynamics, including a number of experimental studies.1-6 In May 2010 Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurements of a full-scale UH-60A rotor were acquired in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel.1 These measurements were taken at a plane just downstream of the advancing blade in the vicinity of the blade tip—the so-called PIV plane. The resulting PIV data were then processed using an ensemble-average approach to create graphical representations of the vortical wake velocity and vorticity fields, which, in turn, have enhanced the understanding of rotorcraft vortical wake flow field physics and have provided a more detailed validation of vortical wake computer simulations.7 A common approach used to analyze flow field features is to compute and plot color contour maps of various scalar quantities such as pressure, velocity magnitude and vorticity magnitude. For example, the color map of the vorticity magnitude is typically used to determine vortical flow structure. With this approach the vortex core may appear larger or smaller, depending on the contour levels that are selected. Thus, the resulting visualization is sensitive to user-specified contour levels. For vortex core radius measurements, it is more accurate to calculate the vortex core radius using the cross-flow velocity profile across the vortex core. The task of extracting the cross-flow velocity profile can be time consuming with existing tools since the user needs to manually select the core center then specify sampling points along the profile axis. The task becomes even more challenging when the associated grid system uses AMR (Adaptive Mesh Refinement) where the profile axis could span multiple grid blocks. There are a number of existing techniques for profiling of vortex core attributes;8-9 however, these techniques are not fully automatic in that the user still needs to select the vortex core center to compute the cross-flow velocity profile. The present study introduces a new color map scheme that is based on the vortex core radius, which is fully automatic and does not require user intervention. Analysis and visualization of blade tip vortices on the PIV plane using the proposed new color map scheme are described in Section II. The new approach is evaluated using two case studies, which are described in Section III. The paper ends with a summary in Section IV.

Quantification↗
NASA NTRS2018

Global Changes in the Diurnal Cycle of Surface Ozone

Changing emissions of NOx and other ozone precursors drive trends in both production and loss of surface ozone, leading to surface ozone trends that differ according to the time of day. Consequently, the magnitude of the diurnal cycle in surface ozone is changing in several regions of the world. Changes in the diurnal cycle of ozone have implications for the metrics used to assess the impact of ozone on human health and vegetation, since different metrics are sensitive to different portions of the diurnal cycle. We use a high resolution model simulation to examine global changes in the magnitude of the diurnal cycle of O3 between 1980 and 2015. The simulation reproduces the negative trends in the tropospheric NO2 column over the eastern United States and Europe, and the positive trends over East Asia, seen by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI). It also gives a reasonable reproduction of the change in the diurnal cycle of surface ozone seen at rural sites in the eastern United States between the 1990s and 2000s. The simulation shows that the magnitude of the surface O3 diurnal cycle is increasing in regions with positive changes in NOx emissions, such as South and East Asia, and decreasing in regions with reductions in NOx emissions. It also shows changes in the diurnal cycle of the tropospheric ozone column, although these have fewer regions with statistically significant trends. These changes suggest that daily mean ozone is responding less than the mid-day ozone measured by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and OMI.

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