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At least 829 records · Page 46

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗

A variational technique for smoothing flight-test and accident data

The problem of determining aircraft motions along a trajectory is solved using a variational algorithm that generates unmeasured states and forcing functions, and estimates instrument bias and scale-factor errors. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear fixed-interval smoothing problem, and is solved as a sequence of linear two-point boundary value problems, using a sweep method. The algorithm has been implemented for use in flight-test and accident analysis. Aircraft motions are assumed to be governed by a six-degree-of-freedom kinematic model; forcing functions consist of body accelerations and winds, and the measurement model includes aerodynamic and radar data. Examples of the determination of aircraft motions from typical flight-test and accident data are presented.

Bach, R. E., Jr.↗

A method for developing design diagrams for ceramic and glass materials using fatigue data

The service lifetime of glass and ceramic materials can be expressed as a plot of time-to-failure versus applied stress whose plot is parametric in percent probability of failure. This type of plot is called a design diagram. Confidence interval estimates for such plots depend on the type of test that is used to generate the data, on assumptions made concerning the statistical distribution of the test results, and on the type of analysis used. This report outlines the development of design diagrams for glass and ceramic materials in engineering terms using static or dynamic fatigue tests, assuming either no particular statistical distribution of test results or a Weibull distribution and using either median value or homologous ratio analysis of the test results.

Heslin, T. M.↗

Spatial gradients in the heliospheric magnetic field - Pioneer 11 observations between 1 AU and 24 AU, and over solar cycle 21

The large-scale temporal behavior and spatial gradients in the heliospheric magnetic field were investigated using magnetic field observations by Pioneer 11 and ISEE 3/ICE satellites, including observations out to a radial distance of 24 AU and over a time interval that includes the recent solar minimum. It was found that, to first order, the gradients in the magnetic field magnitude and in the azimutal component agree well with the Parker (1958) model. The analysis of the Pioneer data confirms previous reports of a magnetic field flux deficit of about 1 percent/AU, so that at 20 AU the relative deficit is of the order of 20 percent. It is argued that most of the magnetic field deficit is in the radial gradient.

Winterhalter, Daniel↗

Search for deterministic pulse trends in gamma ray burst temporal profiles

Most cosmic gamma-ray burst temporal profiles appear to be comprised of several individual pulses, many of which overlap. It is advantageous to deconvolve the temporal structures into their constituent pulses, and thereby investigate the shape, intensity and temporal distributions of the pulses as a function of energy. Such fundamental pulse descriptors would provide constraints for theoretical modeling of the burst emission process, such as indications of source size, optical depth and geometry, as a function of time. We have developed a deconvolution algorithm which treats sequences of pulse shapes that change deterministically. The algorithm, a generalization of autoregressive techniques, has been applied to a few bright bursts observed by BATSE. Results indicate that, even within short intervals, constituent pulses are not self-similarly shaped, nor do pulse shapes evolve in a simple manner throughout a burst. Hence, the direction of our future work on pulse deconvolution will focus on analysis methods which allow pulse shape to vary.

Norris, J. P.↗

First assessment of GPS-based reduced dynamic orbit determination on TOPEX/Poseidon

The reduced dynamic Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking technique has been applied for the first time as part of the GPS experiment on TOPEX/Poseidon. This technique employs local geometric position corrections to reduce orbit errors caused by the mismodeling of satellite forces. Results for a 29-day interval in early 1993 are evaluated through postfit residuals and formal errors, comparison with GPS and laser/DORIS dynamic solutions, comparisons on 6-hr overlaps of adjacent 30-hr data arcs, altimetry closure and crossover analysis. Reduced dynamic orbits yield slightly better crossover agreement than other techniques and appear to be accurate in altitude to about 3 cm RMS.

Yunck, T. P.↗

A Variational Technique for Smoothing Flight-Test and Accident Data

The problem of determining aircraft motions along a trajectory is solved using a variational algorithm that generates unmeasured states and forcing functions, and estimates instrument bias and scale-factor errors. The problem is formulated as a nonlinear fixed-interval smoothing problem, and is solved as a sequence or linear two-point boundary value problems, using a sweep method. The algorithm has been implemented for use in flight-test and accident analysis. Aircraft motions are assumed to be governed by a six-degree-of-freedom kinematic model; forcing functions consist of body accelerations and winds, and the measurement model includes aerodynamic and radar data. Examples of the determination of aircraft motions from typical flight-test and accident data are presented.

Bach, Ralph E. , Jr.↗

Gender Differences in Baroreflex Sensitivity after Bed Rest

Two potential contributing factors to post-spaceflight orthostatic intolerance are decreases in baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) and sympathetic nervous system response. The purpose of this study was to examine the shape of the BRS curve and sympathetic response to a wide range of blood pressures (BP) before and during 6 head-down bed rest (BR). METHODS: Normal volunteers were tested one day before BR (20M, 1 0F) and near BR days 30 (20M, 10F), 60 (16M, 8F), and 90 (1 0M, 5F). BP was pharmacologically manipulated by 10-min infusions of phenylephrine (PE) and sodium nitroprusside (SNP) at 3 increasing concentrations with a 20-min rest between PE and SNP. Electrocardiogram and continuous finger blood pressure were recorded. A blood sample was drawn at the end of each infusion to measure plasma norepinephrine levels. The spontaneous baroreflex slope (SBS), a measure of BRS, was calculated as the slope of a sequence of 3 or more beats in which the systolic BP (SBP) and following R-R interval (RR) both increased or decreased. The data included saturated responses at the upper but not the lower end of the BP range. Mean response curves were constructed using second-order mixed model analysis. Results are based on term significance in the models. RESULTS RR: RR was lower during BR than pre BR (p<0.001). Pre BR males were modeled by a linear RR response to SBP (p=0.000) while females had a quadratic response which saturated at high SBP (p=0.019). By day 30, both genders were modeled by a linear response; compared to males, females had an attenuated (lower slope) RR response to changes in SBP (p=0.031). SBS: SBS vs SBP analysis showed a lower SBS during BR (p<0.001) when compared to pre BR. Females had a higher SBS than males pre BR (p=0.006). Females exhibited saturating SBS at higher SBP (p=0.016) on day 30, while males were modeled by a linear SBS response to SBP (p=0.035). NE: Females had different NE response to diastolic BP than males pre BR (p=0.035) and on day 30 (p=0.005). CONCLUSION: NE, RR and SBS responses to BP are affected by gender and BR. Not only do gender and BR baseline differences exist, but gender and BR also influence the slope and saturation of the BRS curves. Attenuated and saturating RR and SBS responses, as well as differences in baseline values, may contribute to the higher rates of orthostatic intolerance in women and after bed rest.

Arzeno, Natalia M.↗

Statistical Aspects of North Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones During the Weather Satellite Era, 1960-2013: Part 1

A tropical cyclone is described as a warm-core, nonfrontal, synoptic-scale system that originates over tropical or subtropical waters, having organized deep convection and closed surface wind circulation (counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) about a well defined center. When its sustained wind speed equals 34-63 kt, it is called a tropical (or subtropical) storm and is given a name (i.e., alternating male and female names, beginning in 1979); when its sustained wind speed equals 64-95 kt, it is called a hurricane (at least in the Eastern Pacific and North Atlantic basin); and when its sustained wind speed equals 96 kt or higher, it is called an intense or major hurricane (i.e., categories 3-5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). Although tropical cyclones have been reported and described since the voyages of Columbus, a detailed record of their occurrences extends only from 1851 to the present, with the most reliable portion extending only from about 1945 to the present, owing to the use of near-continuous routine reconnaissance aircraft monitoring flights and the use of satellite imagery (beginning in 1960; see Davis). Even so, the record may still be incomplete, possibly missing at least one tropical cyclone per yearly hurricane season, especially prior to the use of continuous satellite monitoring. In fact, often an unnamed tropical cyclone is included in the year-end listing of events at the conclusion of the season, following post-season analysis (e.g., as happened in 2011 and 2013, each having one unnamed event). In this two-part Technical Publication (TP), statistical aspects of the North Atlantic basin tropical cyclones are examined for the interval 1960-2013, the weather satellite era. Part 1 examines some 25 parameters of tropical cyclones (e.g., frequencies, peak wind speed (PWS), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), etc.), while part 2 examines the relationship of these parameters against specific climate-related factors. These studies are a continuation of nearly two decades of previous tropical cyclone-related investigations.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

Satellite-Based Assessment of Grassland Conversion and Related Fire Disturbance in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Spruce beetle-induced (Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby)) mortality on the Kenai Peninsula has heightened local wildfire risk as canopy loss facilitates the conversion from bare to fire-prone grassland. We collected images from NASA satellite-based Earth observations to visualize land cover succession at roughly five-year intervals following a severe, mid-1990's beetle infestation to the present. We classified these data by vegetation cover type to quantify grassland encroachment patterns over time. Raster band math provided a change detection analysis on the land cover classifications. Results indicate the highest wildfire risk is linked to herbaceous and black spruce land cover types, The resulting land cover change image will give the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge (KENWR) ecologists a better understanding of where forests have converted to grassland since the 1990s. These classifications provided a foundation for us to integrate digital elevation models (DEMs), temperature, and historical fire data into a model using Python for assessing and mapping changes in wildfire risk. Spatial representations of this risk will contribute to a better understanding of ecological trajectories of beetle-affected landscapes, thereby informing management decisions at KENWR.

Risk modeling↗

HZETRN Radiation Transport Validation Using Balloon-Based Experimental Data

The deterministic radiation transport code HZETRN (High charge (Z) and Energy TRaNsport) was developed by NASA to study the effects of cosmic radiation on astronauts and instrumentation shielded by various materials. This work presents an analysis of computed differential flux from HZETRN compared with measurement data from three balloon-based experiments over a range of atmospheric depths, particle types, and energies. Model uncertainties were quantified using an interval-based validation metric that takes into account measurement uncertainty both in the flux and the energy at which it was measured. Average uncertainty metrics were computed for the entire dataset as well as subsets of the measurements (by experiment, particle type, energy, etc.) to reveal any specific trends of systematic over- or under-prediction by HZETRN. The distribution of individual model uncertainties was also investigated to study the range and dispersion of errors beyond just single scalar and interval metrics. The differential fluxes from HZETRN were generally well-correlated with balloon-based measurements; the median relative model difference across the entire dataset was determined to be 30%. The distribution of model uncertainties, however, revealed that the range of errors was relatively broad, with approximately 30% of the uncertainties exceeding ± 40%. The distribution also indicated that HZETRN systematically under-predicts the measurement dataset as a whole, with approximately 80% of the relative uncertainties having negative values. Instances of systematic bias for subsets of the data were also observed, including a significant underestimation of alpha particles and protons for energies below 2.5 GeV/u. Muons were found to be systematically over-predicted at atmospheric depths deeper than 50 g/cm(sup 2) but under-predicted for shallower depths. Furthermore, a systematic under-prediction of alpha particles and protons was observed below the geomagnetic cutoff, suggesting that improvements to the light ion production cross sections in HZETRN should be investigated.

James E Warner↗

Diagnostic assessment of reservoir response to fracturing: a case study from Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) in Midland Basin

Abstract This paper outlines a data collection and diagnostics case study involving multiple horizontal shale wells. We look at well production profiles using rate transient analysis, differences in near wellbore complexity, geologic variations within the area of interest, as well as compositional differences in the rocks based on cores obtained from within the stimulated reservoir. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site is a multi-well experiment involving stimulation of unconventional shale wells in the southeastern Midland portion of the Permian Basin. The targeted formations include both the upper as well as the middle Wolfcamp formations, also referred alternatively as Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B. Data integration and analysis shared in this paper help us understand the various geologic controls impacting well productivity, particularly the wide variance observed between the Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B formations. Rate transient analysis indicates similar system permeabilities for stimulated wells. However, we observe higher effective fracture half-lengths for upper Wolfcamp wells. Using observations from 3D seismic interpretations (such as pad scale faults) as well as petrophysical and image log data, we highlight the substantial differences in stimulation as we move along the well laterals from the heel toward the toe sections. These differences are further reconciled with observations from zones with high data density at the core locations through stimulated rock, as well as independent data such as microseismic emissions. At the test site, Wolfcamp A was found to be relatively quartz rich with significant heterogeneity whereas Wolfcamp B is richer in clay and organic content. This impacts the geomechanical characteristics of the rock mass with much higher natural fracture density in the shallower interval. Thus, the fracture growth is more uniform in the deeper interval and more heterogeneous with branching likely in upper interval. Increased complexity also leads to consistently better productivity from the wells in the shallower interval as demonstrated from RTA results. This case study is unique because it provides valuable insights from actual sampling of the stimulated zones in hydraulically fractured wells and helps understand impact of various factors that contribute toward variability in well production. The findings from this study provides insights into need for optimization of completion designs in the various Wolfcamp landing zones, such as optimization of cluster or fracture spacing in various Wolfcamp intervals. In addition, it provides a useful template for data collection and research direction in future field test sites of similar nature in unconventional reservoirs.

Energy & Fuels↗

Geology of the One Earth Energy Site

The One Earth Energy site is one of two sites in the Illinois Storage Corridor (ISC) project. The objectives of the ISC project is to accelerate commercial deployment of carbon capture utilization and storage at two individual sites and receive approvals for Underground Injection Control (UIC) Class VI permits for construction at each site. At the One Earth Energy site, an extensive data collection program was undertaken, which included the drilling of a test well (One Earth Energy #1 [OEE #1]), four 2D seismic lines, and a small 3D seismic survey. The OEE #1 well was drilled in 2022 and acquired extensive core, log, and testing data to characterize the subsurface geology of the site. Coring was focused on the storage interval, the Mt. Simon Sandstone, and the confining interval, the Eau Claire Formation. The core and log data were used to evaluate the sedimentology and sequence stratigraphy, as well as to develop the conceptual geologic model. This report includes the geological summaries of the Mt. Simon Sandstone and the Eau Claire Formation. The extensive analysis of the log data is included in the petrophysical section, showing ranges of porosity, estimated pore size, and the mineral content of selected zones in the well. The separate petrographic technical report entitled “Petrographic and Advanced Geologic Characterization Report on One Earth Energy #1 (API# 1211325373)”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-04, details thin section point-counting analysis that includes mineralogical and pore space analysis, including grain size analysis, annotated thin section photomicrographs, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and statistics of grain size analysis on Mt. Simon thin sections from OEE #1. The final OEE #1 well data to be included in this geology report is the routine core analysis of both whole core plugs and rotary sidewall core plugs. In addition to the OEE #1 well, four 2D seismic lines and a small 3D survey were acquired as part of the overall subsurface geological characterization. This geology report references the seismic interpretation report, entitled “One Earth Energy Site Seismic Interpretation Task 5.0”, report number DOE-UIUC-0031892-07. This report details the stratigraphic and structural interpretation of the 2D and 3D seismic data acquired at the One Earth Energy site. The 2D seismic data was acquired in 2019 and 2021, and the 3D survey was acquired in 2022. The objectives of the seismic programs were to contribute to the subsurface characterization of the Mt. Simon-Eau Claire Storage Complex by evaluating the continuity of potential storage reservoirs and containment intervals across the project area, and to determine if any geologic features are present that would increase containment risk to the proposed carbon storage project.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Development of a composite repair and the associated inspection intervals for the F-111C stiffener runout region

This paper presents an overview of the structural aspects of the design and development of a local reinforcement designed to lower the stresses in a region of the F-111C wing fitting which is prone to cracking. The stress analysis, with particular emphasis on the use of a unified constitutive model for the cyclic inelastic response of the structure, representative specimen testing, thermal analysis and full scale static testing of this design are summarized.

Jones, R.↗

Application of Principal Component Analysis for the Monitoring of the Aging Process of Nuclear Electrical Cable Insulation

To ensure the safe operation of nuclear power plants (NPPs), it is critical to understand how NPP electrical cable insulation will degrade under different service environments. In this study, various nondestructive examination methods were selected to evaluate degradation of electrical cable insulation after aging. Elongation at break, indenter modulus, relaxation constant, mass change, total color difference, and carbonyl index were collected stepwise on cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) cable insulations after predetermined exposure intervals. Three different insulation aging scenarios were investigated: 1) simultaneous irradiation and heating at 150°C, 2) heating at 150°C followed by corresponding times of irradiation at ambient temperature, and 3) irradiation at ambient temperature followed by heating at 150°C for the same duration. A constant dose rate of 300 Gy/hr was selected with a total gamma irradiation absorbed dose up to 320 kGy. To gain insight into the long-term performance of NPP electrical cable insulation, principal component analysis (PCA), a data-driven approach, was utilized to identify key indicators of cable insulation degradation. By reducing the dimensionality of the data while retaining degradation information, PCA was used to highlight the changes in the measured properties under gamma irradiation according to total absorbed dose and the different aging scenarios.

Li, Donghui↗

The effects of spaceflight on open-loop and closed-loop postural control mechanisms: human neurovestibular studies on SLS-2

Stabilogram-diffusion analysis was used to examine how prolonged periods in microgravity affect the open-loop and closed-loop postural control mechanisms. It was hypothesized that following spaceflight: (1) the effective stochastic activity of the open-loop postural control schemes in astronauts is increased; (2) the effective stochastic activity and uncorrelated behavior, respectively, of the closed-loop postural control mechanisms in astronauts are increased; and (3) astronauts utilized open-loop postural controls schemes for shorter time intervals and smaller displacements. Four crew members and two alternates from the 14-day Spacelab Life Sciences 2 Mission were included in the study. Each subject was tested under eyes-open, quiet-standing conditions on multiple preflight and postflight days. The subjects' center-of-pressure trajectories were measured with a force platform and analyzed according to stabilogram-diffusion analysis. It was found that the effective stochastic activity of the open-loop postural control schemes in three of the four crew members was increased following spaceflight. This result is interpreted as an indication that there may be in-flight adaptations to higher-level descending postural control pathways, e.g., a postflight increase in the tonic activation of postural muscles. This change may also be the consequence of a compensatory (e.g., "stiffening") postural control strategy that is adopted by astronauts to account for general feeling of postflight unsteadiness. The crew members, as a group, did not exhibit any consistent preflight/postflight differences in the steady-state behavior of their closed-loop postural control mechanisms or in the functional interaction of their open-loop and closed-loop postural control mechanisms. These results are interpreted as indications that although there may be in-flight adaptations to the vestibular system and/or proprioceptive system, input from the visual system can compensate for such changes during undisturbed stance.

NASA Program Flight↗

Principal Component Analysis of Nuclear Cable Insulation Subjected to Elevated Temperature and Gamma Radiation

In nuclear power plants (NPPs), the aging of electrical cable insulation occurs due to elevated temperature, ionizing radiation, and other environmental factors. To ensure the safe and efficient operation of NPPs, determination of key indicators of cable aging is critical to predict the remaining useful lifetime of electrical cable insulation. In this work, the effects of simultaneous and sequential thermal and gamma radiation on the aging of cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) electrical cable insulation are investigated. The chemical changes of the insulation were monitored non-destructively through the use of Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy. The FTIR spectra were measured stepwise after predetermined exposure intervals, with a total irradiation dose up to 320 kGy at a dose rate of 300 Gy/hr in two exposure scenarios; simultaneously aged samples were heated at 150 °C during irradiation, while sequentially aged samples were heated at 150 °C for designated durations followed by corresponding times of irradiation at ambient temperature. A data-driven approach using principal component analysis (PCA) was developed to highlight changes in the carbonyl region of the infrared spectra of the aged samples due to oxidation and to differentiate oxidation rates under the simultaneous and sequential exposure conditions. Findings indicate that the sequential aging scenario may be more conservative than the simultaneous aging scenario for XLPE electrical cable insulation.

Li, Donghui↗

Filling data analysis gaps in time-resolved crystallography by machine learning

There is a growing understanding of the structural dynamics of biological molecules fueled by x-ray crystallography experiments. Time-resolved serial femtosecond crystallography (TR-SFX) with x-ray Free Electron Lasers allows the measurement of ultrafast structural changes in proteins. Nevertheless, this technique comes with some limitations. One major challenge is the quality of data from TR-SFX measurements, which often faces issues like data sparsity, partial recording of Bragg reflections, timing errors, and pixel noise. To overcome these difficulties, conventionally, large volumes of data are collected and grouped into a few temporal bins. The data in each bin are then averaged and paired with the mean of their corresponding jittered timestamps. This procedure provides one structure per bin, resulting in a limited number of averaged structures for the entire time interval spanned by the experiment. Therefore, the information on ultrafast structural dynamics at high temporal resolution is lost. This has initiated research for advanced methods of analyzing experimental TR-SFX data beyond the standard binning and averaging method. To address this problem, we use a machine learning algorithm called Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (NLSA), which has emerged as a promising technique for studying the dynamics of complex systems. In this work, we demonstrate the power of this algorithm using synthetic x-ray diffraction snapshots from a protein with significant data incompleteness, timing uncertainties, and noise. Our study confirms that NLSA is a suitable approach that effectively mitigates the effects of these artifacts in TR-SFX data and recovers accurate structural dynamics information hidden in such data.

Trujillo, Justin (ORCID:0000000285505360)↗