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NASA NTRS2018

Igneous Rocks Formed by Hypervelocity Impact

Igneous rocks are the primary building blocks of planetary crusts. Most igneous rocks originate via decompression melting and/or wet melting of protolith lithologies within planetary interiors and their classification and compositional, petrographic, and textural characteristics, arewell-studied. As our exploration of the Solar System continues, so too does the inventory of intrusive and extrusive igneous rocks, settings, and processes. The results of planetary exploration have also clearly demonstrated that impact cratering is a ubiquitous geological process that has affected, andwill continue to affect, all planetary objectswith a solid surface,whether that be rock or ice. It is nowrecognized that the production of igneous rocks is a fundamental outcome of hypervelocity impact. The goal of this review is to provide an up-to-date synthesis of our knowledge and understanding of igneous rocks formed by hypervelocity impact. Following a brief overview of the basics of the impact process, we describe howand whymelts are generated during impact events and howimpactmelting differs fromendogenic igneous processes.While the processmay differ,we showthat the products of hypervelocity impact can share close similarities with volcanic and shallow intrusive igneous rocks of endogenic origin. Such impact melt rocks, as they are termed, can display lobate margins and cooling cracks, columnar joints and at the hand specimen andmicroscopic scale, such rocks can displaymineral textures that are typical of volcanic rocks, such as quench crystallites, ophitic, porphyritic, aswell as features such as vesicles, flowtextures, and so on.Historically, these similarities led to themisidentification of some igneous rocks now known to be impact melt rocks as being of endogenic origin. This raises the question as to how to distinguish between an impact versus an endogenic origin for igneous-like rocks on other planetary bodies where fieldwork and sample analysis may not be possible and all that may be available is remote sensing data.While the interpretation of some impact melt rocks may be relatively straightforward (e.g., for clast-rich varieties and those with clear projectile contamination) we conclude that distinguishing between impact and endogenic igneous rocks is a non-trivial task that ultimately may require sample investigation and analysis to be conducted. Caution is, therefore, urged in the interpretation of igneous rocks on planetary surfaces.

Osinski, Gordon R.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Large Impact Features on Icy Galilean Satellites: Implications for Ice Shell Thickness and Habitability.

Nowhere in the solar system are impact morphologies observed in greater variety than on the icy Galilean satellites. This is very likely a consequence of the structural and thermal state of the crust at the time of impact, and perhaps impact velocity. We have conducted a multi-disciplinary investigation to study how these features formed. The particular combination of geophysical factors and impactor characteristics that is shared by these satellites is likely responsible for these features. We have derived Digital Terrain Models for a number of these features, which have been used as a tool for producing facies maps. Impact features on Ganymede and Callisto are relatable to impact features on Europa, with implications for its ice shell history. We have identified two broad classes of these impact features: (a) Crater forms, which variously include pits, central domes, and crater rims; and (b) Palimpsests (including pene-palimpsests), which all have smooth enclosed central plains, an extensive outer undulating plains unit, concentric arcuate ridges(in the case of pene-palimpsests), and no recognizable rim. The very large, measured volume of the undulating plains unit of the pene-palimpsest Buto, Ganymede, substantially exceeds the amount of target material that could have been both melted and excavated by the impact event itself. Therefore, we conclude that the undulating plains material was derived from a fluid or “slushy” layer in the near-surface target at the time of impact. The recognition of undulating plains as the dominant unit in Memphis and Nidaba, two other palimpsests on Ganymede that we have mapped(which display highly variable crater counts, with Buto being the least cratered),leads us to a working hypothesis that these plains only form where and when the target has substantial near surface fluid or “slush.” By extension, all other impact features on Ganymede and Callisto, such as those with central pits and central domes, formed in targets with no pre-existing, or at most inconsequential, amounts of fluid or “slush.” Supporting this conclusion, modeling by members of our group indicates that the present topography of impact features with central pits and domes can be largely explained by the behavior of ice alone, with no or little contribution from fluids. Our study supports explanations for the formation and final appearance of palimpsests (and pene-palimpsests) that are entirely applicable to this feature class, and sharply distinct from explanations for other impact features (crater forms) on Ganymede and Callisto.

Jeffrey M Moore↗

DOE OSTI2013

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Impact assessment of land use planning driving forces on environment

Land use change may exert a negative impact on environmental quality. A state–impact–state (SIS) model describing a state transform under certain impacts has been integrated into land use planning (LUP) environmental impact assessment (LUPEA). This logical model is intuitive and easy to understand, but the exploration of impact is essential to establish the indicator system and to identify the scope of land use environmental impact when it is applied to a specific region. In this study, we investigated environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF), along with the conception, components, scope, and impact of LUPF. This method was illustrated by a case study in Zoucheng, China. Through the results, we concluded that (1) the LUPF on environment are impacts originated from the implementation of LUP on a regional environment, which are characterized by four aspects: magnitude, direction, action point, and its owner; (2) various scopes of LUPF on individual environmental elements based on different standards jointly define the final scope of LUPEA; (3) our case study in Zoucheng demonstrates the practicability of this proposed approach; (4) this method can be embedded into LUPEA with direction, magnitudes, and scopes of the LUPF on individual elements obtained, and the identified indicator system can be directly employed into LUPEA and (5) the assessment helps to identify key indicators and to set up a corresponding strategy to mitigate the negative impact of LUP on the environment, which are two important objectives of strategic environmental assessment (SEA) in LUP. - Highlights: • Environmental driving forces from land use planning (LUPF) are investigated and categorized. • Our method can obtains the direction, magnitudes and scopes of environmental driving forces. • The LUPEA scope is determined by the combination of various scopes of LUPF on individual elements. • LUPF assessment can be embedded into LUPEA. • The method can help to identify key indicators and set up a strategy to mitigate negative environmental impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Road ecology in environmental impact assessment

Transport infrastructure has a wide array of effects on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and road and railway networks are increasingly being associated with a loss of biodiversity worldwide. Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) are two legal frameworks that concern physical planning, with the potential to identify, predict, mitigate and/or compensate transport infrastructure effects with negative impacts on biodiversity. The aim of this study was to review the treatment of ecological impacts in environmental assessment of transport infrastructure plans and projects. A literature review on the topic of EIA, SEA, biodiversity and transport infrastructure was conducted, and 17 problem categories on the treatment of biodiversity were formulated by means of a content analysis. A review of environmental impact statements and environmental reports (EIS/ER) produced between 2005 and 2013 in Sweden and the UK was then conducted using the list of problems as a checklist. The results show that the treatment of ecological impacts has improved substantially over the years, but that some impacts remain problematic; the treatment of fragmentation, the absence of quantitative analysis and that the impact assessment study area was in general delimited without consideration for the scales of ecological processes. Actions to improve the treatment of ecological impacts could include improved guidelines for spatial and temporal delimitation, and the establishment of a quantitative framework including tools, methods and threshold values. Additionally, capacity building and further method development of EIA and SEA friendly spatial ecological models can aid in clarifying the costs as well as the benefits in development/biodiversity tradeoffs. - Highlights: • The treatment of ecological impacts in EIA and SEA has improved. • Quantitative methods for ecological impact assessment were rarely used • Fragmentation effects were recognized but not analysed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

The ecological impact assessment of a proposed road development (the Slovak approach)

The construction of roads is one of the most widespread forms of natural landscape modification. Over the last 20 years, dozens of road constructions have been assessed in Slovakia, which makes it possible to talk about methodological positives and negatives. A special feature of Slovakia is that many planned or renovated roads are located in protected areas or are in contact with them (including Natura 2000 sites). Therefore, it is important to understand the scope of the roads' ecological impacts and find ways for their appropriate evaluation and incorporation into the Environmental Impact Assessment process. For this reason, the Ecological Impact Assessment methodology can be used as a basis for our research, which consists of three stages. In the first stage (scoping), a buffer circumventing the proposed road is created to determine the area for impact prediction and evaluation. Subsequently, the landscape structure and baseline landscape conditions are discussed, a map of current landscape structure is created and the current ecological status of the affected area is calculated. In the second stage (the evaluation of ecological resources), important ecological parts of the landscape are delineated. This step is based on the importance of previous information and its vulnerability, and leads to the mapping of the road ecological impact zone. In the third stage (impact assessment), important ecological parts are spatially correlated with the proposed road construction. Finally, the significance of ecological impacts of the activity is evaluated by applying specific criteria (duration, reversibility, magnitude, size and road ecological impact zone significance). A scale is proposed for each criterion to evaluate the total significance of impacts. In this way, detailed significant ecological impacts can be found which will help lead to proposed correct mitigation measures and a post-project analysis. - Highlights: • This paper proposes a methodology for the EcIA of road construction. • It tries to understand the spatial structure and configuration of landscape elements. • The most important ecological parts within the territory are identified. • The total significance of ecological receptors is evaluated by applying criteria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

A thermodynamic analysis of hypervelocity impacts on metals

Hypervelocity impacts on solid surfaces generate and propagate shock waves and create extreme density, pressure, and temperature conditions. Understanding hypervelocity impacts requires a multi-physics approach at the intersection of fluid dynamics, solid mechanics, and quantum theory, which has the capability of spanning multiple different dominating physics regimes. These strong shock conditions found in hypervelocity impacts are studied in the context of high-speed collisions between spacecraft and meteoroids and debris. We study the problem of hypervelocity impacts on metals with the lens of understanding the processes that lead to the creation of an impact generated plasma. In order to characterize the impacting particle as well as its threat to spacecraft from the subsequent radiating plasma an analysis was performed that highlights how the kinetic energy of the impactor is deposited into a target, how the shock wave and shocked material in the target evolve, and how these effects can lead towards the creation of an impact plasma through heating. The analysis suggests that at low velocities the majority of the energy from a hypervelocity impact is stored in reversible elastic energy and does not contribute to strong heating. At higher impact velocities, nucleus and electron thermal components dominate, increasing the energy available for ionization. Overall, this work provides the complete set of state variable initial conditions for any study of hypervelocity impact plasma expansion and its effects.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Microstructural characterization of Charpy-impact-tested nanostructured bainite

In this work, a possible cause of the extraordinary low impact toughness of nanostructured bainite has been investigated. The microstructure of nanostructured bainite consisted chiefly of carbide-free bainitic ferrite with retained austenite films. X-ray diffractometry (XRD) measurement indicated that no retained austenite existed in the fractured surface of the Charpy-impact-tested specimens. Fractographs showed that cracks propagated mainly along bainitic ferrite platelet boundaries. The change in microstructure after impact loading was verified by transmission electron microscopy (TEM) observations, confirming that retained austenite was completely transformed to strain-induced martensite during the Charpy impact test. However, the zone affected by strained-induced martensite was found to be extremely shallow, only to a depth of several micrometers from the fracture surface. It is appropriately concluded that upon impact, as the crack forms and propagates, strain-induced martensitic transformation immediately occurs ahead of the advancing crack tip. The successive martensitic transformation profoundly facilitates the crack propagation, resulting in the extremely low impact toughness of nanostructured bainite. Retained austenite, in contrast to its well-known beneficial role, has a deteriorating effect on toughness during the course of Charpy impact. - Highlights: • The microstructure of nanostructured bainite consisted of nano-sized bainitic ferrite subunits with retained austenite films. • Special sample preparations for SEM, XRD and TEM were made, and the strain-affected structures have been explored. • Retained austenite films were found to transform into martensite after impact loading, as evidenced by XRD and TEM results. • The zone of strain-induced martensite was found to extend to only several micrometers from the fracture surface. • The poor Charpy impact toughness is associated with the fracture of martensite at a high strain rate during impact loading.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2013

Environmental impacts of residual Municipal Solid Waste incineration: A comparison of 110 French incinerators using a life cycle approach

Highlights: • 110 French incinerators are compared with LCA based on plant-specific data. • Environmental impacts vary as a function of plants energy recovery and NO{sub x} emissions. • E.g. climate change impact ranges from −58 to 408 kg CO{sub 2}-eq/tonne of residual MSW. • Implications for LCA of waste management in a decision-making process are detailed. - Abstract: Incineration is the main option for residual Municipal Solid Waste treatment in France. This study compares the environmental performances of 110 French incinerators (i.e. 85% of the total number of plants currently in activity in France) in a Life Cycle Assessment perspective, considering 5 non-toxic impact categories: climate change, photochemical oxidant formation, particulate matter formation, terrestrial acidification and marine eutrophication. Mean, median and lower/upper impact potentials are determined considering the incineration of 1 tonne of French residual Municipal Solid Waste. The results highlight the relatively large variability of the impact potentials as a function of the plant technical performances. In particular, the climate change impact potential of the incineration of 1 tonne of waste ranges from a benefit of −58 kg CO{sub 2}-eq to a relatively large burden of 408 kg CO{sub 2}-eq, with 294 kg CO{sub 2}-eq as the average impact. Two main plant-specific parameters drive the impact potentials regarding the 5 non-toxic impact categories under study: the energy recovery and delivery rate and the NO{sub x} process-specific emissions. The variability of the impact potentials as a function of incinerator characteristics therefore calls for the use of site-specific data when required by the LCA goal and scope definition phase, in particular when the study focuses on a specific incinerator or on a local waste management plan, and when these data are available.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2012

Modeling High-Impact Weather and Climate: Lessons From a Tropical Cyclone Perspective

Although the societal impact of a weather event increases with the rarity of the event, our current ability to assess extreme events and their impacts is limited by not only rarity but also by current model fidelity and a lack of understanding of the underlying physical processes. This challenge is driving fresh approaches to assess high-impact weather and climate. Recent lessons learned in modeling high-impact weather and climate are presented using the case of tropical cyclones as an illustrative example. Through examples using the Nested Regional Climate Model to dynamically downscale large-scale climate data the need to treat bias in the driving data is illustrated. Domain size, location, and resolution are also shown to be critical and should be guided by the need to: include relevant regional climate physical processes; resolve key impact parameters; and to accurately simulate the response to changes in external forcing. The notion of sufficient model resolution is introduced together with the added value in combining dynamical and statistical assessments to fill out the parent distribution of high-impact parameters. Finally, through the example of a tropical cyclone damage index, direct impact assessments are presented as powerful tools that distill complex datasets into concise statements on likely impact, and as highly effective communication devices. Capsule: "Combining dynamical modeling of high-impact weather using traditional regional climate models with statistical techniques allows for comprehensive sampling of the full distribution, uncertainty estimation, direct assessment of impacts, and increased confidence in future changes."

climate↗

NASA NTRS2014

Ice Particle Impacts on a Moving Wedge

This work presents the results of an experimental study of ice particle impacts on a moving wedge. The experiment was conducted in the Adverse Environment Rotor Test Stand (AERTS) facility located at Penn State University. The wedge was placed at the tip of a rotating blade. Ice particles shot from a pressure gun intercepted the moving wedge and impacted it at a location along its circular path. The upward velocity of the ice particles varied from 7 to 12 meters per second. Wedge velocities were varied from 0 to 120 meters per second. Wedge angles tested were 0, 30, 45, and 60. High speed imaging combined with backlighting captured the impact allowing observation of the effect of velocity and wedge angle on the impact and the post-impact fragment behavior. It was found that the pressure gun and the rotating wedge could be synchronized to consistently obtain ice particle impacts on the target wedge. It was observed that the number of fragments increase with the normal component of the impact velocity. Particle fragments ejected immediately after impact showed velocities higher than the impact velocity. The results followed the major qualitative features observed by other researchers for hailstone impacts, even though the reduced scale size of the particles used in the present experiment as compared to hailstones was 4:1.

Impacts↗

NASA NTRS2015

Environmental Consequences of Big Nasty Impacts on the Early Earth

The geological record of the Archean Earth is spattered with impact spherules from a dozen or so major cosmic collisions involving Earth and asteroids or comets (Lowe, Byerly 1986, 2015). Extrapolation of the documented deposits suggests that most of these impacts were as big or bigger than the Chicxulub event that famously ended the reign of the thunder lizards. As the Archean impacts were greater, the environmental effects were also greater. The number and magnitude of the impacts is bounded by the lunar record. There are no lunar craters bigger than Chicxulub that date to Earth's mid-to-late Archean. Chance dictates that Earth experienced no more than approximately 10 impacts bigger than Chicxulub between 2.5 billion years and 3.5 billion years, the biggest of which were approximately 30-100 times more energetic, comparable to the Orientale impact on the Moon (1x10 (sup 26) joules). To quantify the thermal consequences of big impacts on old Earth, we model the global flow of energy from the impact into the environment. The model presumes that a significant fraction of the impact energy goes into ejecta that interact with the atmosphere. Much of this energy is initially in rock vapor, melt, and high speed particles. (i) The upper atmosphere is heated by ejecta as they reenter the atmosphere. The mix of hot air, rock vapor, and hot silicates cools by thermal radiation. Rock raindrops fall out as the upper atmosphere cools. (ii) The energy balance of the lower atmosphere is set by radiative exchange with the upper atmosphere and with the surface, and by evaporation of seawater. Susequent cooling is governed by condensation of water vapor. (iii) The oceans are heated by thermal radiation and rock rain and cooled by evaporation. Surface waters become hot and salty; if a deep ocean remains it is relatively cool. Subsequently water vapor condenses to replenish the oceans with hot fresh water (how fresh depending on continental weathering, which might be rather rapid under the circumstances). (iv) The surface temperature of dry land is presumed to be the same as the lower atmosphere. A thermal wave propagates into the land at a rate set by conduction. Impacts not greatly larger than Chicxulub can raise the surface temperature by tens, hundreds, or even thousands of degrees, and evaporate meters to hundreds of meters of water. The biggest should have vitrified exposed dry land. More results are for the talk, as here we have run out of space.

Archean Earth↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Chlorine Isotope Transect Across the Sudbury Impact Deposits Reveals Enigmatic Isotopic Fractionation

Volatile elements play an important role in a variety of cosmochemical and geochemical processes. As such, there has been significant interest in their abundance and isotopic composition. Chlorine is an important element for tracing these processes because it is incompatible in nearly all minerals, extremely volatile, and strongly hydrophilic [1]. The Cl isotope composition ( 37 Cl/ 35 Cl) of meteoritic components, therefore, can provide useful information regarding the isotopic reservoirs that were present in the early Solar System and any secondary processes that may have occurred on different parent bodies (e.g., [2-4]). There is a relatively narrow range in the Cl isotope compositions of terrestrial, Martian, and chondritic meteorites (δ 37 Cl ~ −6 to +4‰) (e.g., [2,3,5,6]), with exceptions to this being the Moon and Vesta (up to ~ +81‰ and ~ +40‰, respectively) [4, 5, 7-10]. One hypothesis for the extreme Cl isotope fractionation observed on the Moon is degassing following large-scale (possibly even crust-breaching) impact events [7-9]. The role of hypervelocity impacts and impact-generated magmatism in the isotopic evolution of planetary materials, however, has been until recently an area of limited published research with the majority of works focusing on the effects of impact shock (e.g., [10-13]). The ~ 1.85 Ga Sudbury impact crater [14] located in Ontario, Canada, is one of the three largest impact craters on Earth with good exposures of its impact melt sheet and overlying breccias [15,16]. The impact melt sheet, called the Sudbury Igneous Complex (SIC), is up to 5 km thick [17], with an estimated original volume of >10 4 km 3 [18], and differentiated. Recent work demonstrated evaporative loss and isotope fractionation of the moderately volatile element zinc and suggest melt sheets produced by impacts could have a significant effect on the Earth’s volatile inventory [19]. In this study we investigate the abundance and isotopic composition of Cl as well the water abundance of apatite from the SIC and the overlying crater-fill to test the hypothesis that large-scale impacts may have generated the extensive Cl isotopic fractionation observed on the Moon.

Sudbury↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The ESA Hera Mission: Detailed Investigation of the NASA Dart Impact Outcome and Characterization of the Binary Asteroid Didymos

The Hera mission is in development in the Space Safety Program of the European Space Agency (ESA) in collaboration with JAXA for launch in October 2024. It will rendezvous with the binary asteroid (65803) Didymos in early 2027 and over the following 6 months will investigate the properties of Didymos and its small moon Dirmorphos, including the effects of the successful impact of the NASA DART probe. DART was launched on 24 November 2021 at 06:21 UTC and successfully impacted at about 6.1 km/s on the 160 meter-size Dimorphos on 26 September 2022 at 23:14 UTC. Two weeks before impact, it deployed the Light Italian Cubesat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube) that provided images during the few minutes following the impact. A campaign of observations from Earth and space provided distant images of the event, which were used to determine a reduction of 33 min in the orbital period of Dimorphos around Didymos. The Hera mission will investigate the outcome of the DART impact in detail. In particular, it will determine the effects of the impact on Dimorphos’ surface, e.g., whether it produced a crater, and if so its properties, and/or whether it led to global reshaping of Dimorphos. It will accurately measure the mass of Dimorphos, which will allow quantification of the momentum enhancement factor, which is a crucial parameter to evaluate the efficiency of the kinetic impactor technique. Hera will also determine in detail the physical, thermal and compositional properties of the asteroid, including first time measurements of the internal properties, which have a critical influence on the impact outcome. With Hera and DART together, we will have a fully documented deflection test and impact experiment that will allow us to verify our numerical impact models, to be able to extrapolate this deflection test to other asteroids and to improve our understanding of the complex geological properties and response of small asteroids. Hera consists of a mother spacecraft and two cubesats. It will perform the first rendezvous with a binary asteroid, arriving at Didymos about 4 years after DART. Hera will not only contribute significantly to the planetary defense effort by documenting entirely the outcome of the DART impact, it will also greatly advance our understanding of processes in the very low gravity regime of a small asteroidv (Dimorphos) as well as our knowledge of binary asteroids and asteroid geophysics. The mission development is progressing nominally, with the Critical Design Review having been passed in Nov. 2022. The various working groups of the Hera Science Team are working intensively to support this development and be best prepared for the surprises that Hera will offer during its visit to Didymos in 2027.

Asteroid deflection↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision to Support - Transition to Operations

Mission planners, systems engineers, and clinicians that support crew health and performance face very difficult choices on upcoming exploration missions. Given that there will be a heavily constrained mass and volume allocation for a medical system on these missions, what medical capability should be manifested to minimize both medical risk and mission risk? Given that not all promising research and technology proposals can be funded, how can proposals be prioritized so that those funded research investments produce the maximum benefit in reducing overall medical risk? The Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces (IMPACT) project seeks to answer these kinds of questions and others to support upcoming exploration missions. IMPACT enables risk-informed and evidence-based trade space analysis for future space vehicles, missions, and systems. This presentation will discuss the long-term HRP and ExMC vision for the larger ecosystem of tools, which include an updated medical database, consisting of an Evidence Library for medical conditions and a medical item database (MedID) for medical resources, dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) capabilities, System Modeling Language (SysML) models, and contextual data visualizations of output data. IMPACT is the result of a multi-center collaborative effort. The trade space analyses performed by IMPACT can directly inform mission, vehicle, and habitat development by quantifying medical risk, given a design reference mission, crew attributes and a set of medical capabilities. This presentation will update the audience on the development status of the IMPACT tool suite as it comes out of its System Acceptance Review (SAR) and nears Transition to Operations (TTO). It will review IMPACT’s constituent parts, briefly discuss typical outputs, and outline the plans for transitioning to operations, currently scheduled for later in FY24. Recent development successes on the IMPACT project include the integration of the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT) v2.0 to accommodate segmented missions with multiple carriers and medical systems, full onboarding of the IMPACT Medical Database (IMPACT-MD), clustering medical resources and skills into medical capabilities and mutually-dependent bundles, verification of IMPACT-MD, and the ability to perform trade analyses on different medical sets, different design reference missions (DRM), with different crew complements and extra-vehicular activity (EVA) schedules.

IMPACT↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACT, A Tool Suite for Crew Health and Performance System Trade Analyses and Decision Support- Transition to Operations

IMPACT↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗

DOE OSTI2010

Simulated combined abnormal environment fire calculations for aviation impacts.

Aircraft impacts at flight speeds are relevant environments for aircraft safety studies. This type of environment pertains to normal environments such as wildlife impacts and rough landings, but also the abnormal environment that has more recently been evidenced in cases such as the Pentagon and World Trade Center events of September 11, 2001, and the FBI building impact in Austin. For more severe impacts, the environment is combined because it involves not just the structural mechanics, but also the release of the fuel and the subsequent fire. Impacts normally last on the order of milliseconds to seconds, whereas the fire dynamics may last for minutes to hours, or longer. This presents a serious challenge for physical models that employ discrete time stepping to model the dynamics with accuracy. Another challenge is that the capabilities to model the fire and structural impact are seldom found in a common simulation tool. Sandia National Labs maintains two codes under a common architecture that have been used to model the dynamics of aircraft impact and fire scenarios. Only recently have these codes been coupled directly to provide a fire prediction that is better informed on the basis of a detailed structural calculation. To enable this technology, several facilitating models are necessary, as is a methodology for determining and executing the transfer of information from the structural code to the fire code. A methodology has been developed and implemented. Previous test programs at the Sandia National Labs sled track provide unique data for the dynamic response of an aluminum tank of liquid water impacting a barricade at flight speeds. These data are used to validate the modeling effort, and suggest reasonable accuracy for the dispersion of a non-combustible fluid in an impact environment. The capability is also demonstrated with a notional impact of a fuel-filled container at flight speed. Both of these scenarios are used to evaluate numeric approximations, and help provide an understanding of the quantitative accuracy of the modeling methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗