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At least 829 records · Page 46

Rock Abrasion and Ventifact Formation on Mars from Field Analog, Theoretical, and Experimental Studies

Rocks observed by the Viking Landers and Pathfinder Lander/Sojourner rover exhibit a suite of perplexing rock textures. Among these are pits, spongy textures, penetrative flutes, lineaments, crusts, and knobs Fluvial, impact, chemical alteration, and aeolian mechanisms have been proposed for many of these. In an effort to better understand the origin and characteristics of Martian rock textures, abraded rocks in the Mojave Desert and other regions have been studied. We find that most Martian rock textures, as opposed to just a few, bear close resemblance to terrestrial aeolian textures and can most easily be explained by wind, not other, processes. Flutes, grooves, and some pits on Mars are consistent with abrasion by saltating particles, as described previously. However, many other rock textures probably also have an aeolian origin. Sills at the base of rocks that generally lie at high elevations, such as Half Dome, are consistent with such features on Earth that are related to moats or soil ramps that shield the basal part of the rock from erosion. Crusts consisting of fluted fabrics, such as those on Stimpy and Chimp, are similar to fluted crusts on Earth that spall off over time. Knobby and lineated rocks are similar to terrestrial examples of heterogeneous rocks that differentially erode. The location of specific rock textures on Mars also gives insight into their origin. Many of the most diagnostic ventifacts found at the Pathfinder site are located on rocks that lie near the crests or the upper slopes of ridges. On Earth, the most active ventifact formation occurs on sloped or elevated topography, where windflow is accelerated and particle kinetic energy and flux are increased. Integrated 0 together, these observations point to significant aeolian 0 modification of rocks on Mars and cast doubt on whether many primary textures resulting from other processes are preserved. Experimental simulations of abrasion in the presence of abundant sand indicate that rocks on Mars should erode at a rate of 7.7 to 210 micrometers/yr. These rates cannot have operated over the entire history of the Pathfinder site or elsewhere on Mars, because craters, knobs, and other obstacles would be quickly worn away. More likely, rock abrasion occurs over short time periods when sand supplies are sufficient and saltation friction speeds are frequently reached. Depletion or exhaustion of sand and a decline in wind fluxes at speeds greater than that of saltation friction will then act to reduce the rate of further abrasion. We are currently engaged in a new set of wind tunnel experiments coupled with theoretical models and field studies that address rock abrasion and ventifact formation on Mars and Earth. These studies have implications for the Noachian, when sand supplies were probably more plentiful and the threshold friction speed was possibly lower because of a more dense atmosphere. Under these conditions, erosion rates from the wind could have been much greater than to day, contributing, along with probable fluvial erosion, to the Noachian landscape that is in limited preservation today.

Bridges, N. T.↗

A Planning Pipeline for Large Multi-Agent Missions

In complex multi-agent applications, human operators are often tasked with planning and managing large heterogeneous teams of humans and autonomous vehicles. Although the use of these autonomous vehicles broadens the scope of meaningful applications, many of their systems remain unintuitive and difficult to master for human operators whose expertise lies in the application domain and not at the platform level. Current research focuses on the development of individual capabilities necessary to plan multi-agent missions of this scope, placing little emphasis on the integration of these components in to a full pipeline. The work presented in this paper presents a complete and user-agnostic planning pipeline for large multiagent missions known as the HOLII GRAILLE. The system takes a holistic approach to mission planning by integrating capabilities in human machine interaction, flight path generation, and validation and verification. Components – modules – of the pipeline are explored on an individual level, as well as their integration into a whole system. Lastly, implications for future mission planning are discussed.

Chandarana, Meghan↗

Competition within low-density bacterial populations as an unexpected factor regulating carbon decomposition in bulk soil

Bacterial decomposition of organic matter in soils is generally believed to be mainly controlled by the access bacteria have to organic substrate. The influence of bacterial traits on this control has, however, received little attention. Using the substrate-dependent Monod growth model, we develop a bioreactive transport model to screen the interactive impacts of spatial dispersion and bacterial traits on mineralization. Bacterial traits primarily involved in the bacterial response to the substrate concentration, such as the maximum specific uptake rate and efficiency, the adaptation time of the uptake rate and the initial population density, are considered. We compare the model results with two sets of previously performed cm-scale soil-core experiments in which the mineralization of the pesticide 2,4-D was measured under well-controlled initial distributions and transport conditions. Bacterial dispersion away from the initial substrate location induced a significant increase in 2,4-D mineralization. Additionally, it reveals an increase of specific uptake rates at lower bacterial densities, more than compensating the decrease of specific uptake rates caused by substrate dilution. This regulation of bacterial activities by density, caused by the local depletion of substrate by competing bacteria, becomes dominant for bacteria with an efficient uptake of substrate at low substrate concentrations (a common feature of oligotrophs). Such oligotrophs, commonly found in soils, compete with each other for substrate even at remarkably low population densities. The ratio-dependent Contois growth model, which includes a density regulation in the expression of the uptake efficiency, is more accurate and convenient to calibrate than the substrate-dependent Monod model, at least under these conditions. In view of their strong interactions, bioreactive and transport processes cannot be handled independently but should be integrated, in particular when reactive processes of interest are carried out by oligotrophs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

High‐Resolution National‐Scale Water Modeling Is Enhanced by Multiscale Differentiable Physics‐Informed Machine Learning

Abstract The National Water Model (NWM) is a key tool for flood forecasting, planning, and water management. Key challenges facing the NWM include calibration and parameter regionalization when confronted with big data. We present two novel versions of high‐resolution (∼37 km 2 ) differentiable models (a type of hybrid model): one with implicit, unit‐hydrograph‐style routing and another with explicit Muskingum‐Cunge routing in the river network. The former predicts streamflow at basin outlets whereas the latter presents a discretized product that seamlessly covers rivers in the conterminous United States (CONUS). Both versions use neural networks to provide a multiscale parameterization and process‐based equations to provide a structural backbone, which were trained simultaneously (“end‐to‐end”) on 2,807 basins across the CONUS and evaluated on 4,997 basins. Both versions show great potential to elevate future NWM performance for extensively calibrated as well as ungauged sites: the median daily Nash‐Sutcliffe efficiency of all 4,997 basins is improved to around 0.68 from 0.48 of NWM3.0. As they resolve spatial heterogeneity, both versions greatly improved simulations in the western CONUS and also in the Prairie Pothole Region, a long‐standing modeling challenge. The Muskingum‐Cunge version further improved performance for basins >10,000 km 2 . Overall, our results show how neural‐network‐based parameterizations can improve NWM performance for providing operational flood predictions while maintaining interpretability and multivariate outputs. The modeling system supports the Basic Model Interface (BMI), which allows seamless integration with the next‐generation NWM. We also provide a CONUS‐scale hydrologic data set for further evaluation and use.

Song, Yalan [Civil and Environmental Engineering T↗

Wellbore injectivity response to step-rate CO 2 injection: Coupled thermo-poro-elastic analysis in a vertically heterogeneous formation

Safe and permanent carbon geological storages require an elaborate analysis of geomechanical stability. Subsurface injection of CO 2 changes the local temperature and pore pressure and, further, alters the stress due to thermo-poro-elastic responses. A permanent CO 2 storage testing was conducted in the water leg of Cranfield reservoir in Mississippi, USA, where hosted CO 2 enhanced-oil recovery activities. During CO 2 injection, the injection rate was ramped up twice but the bottom-hole pressure did not increase with the imposed injection rates as expected. This unexpected field observation suggests the possibility of an open-mode fracture development at the injector. However, the injector response and potential fracture development have not been rigorously interpreted with detailed near-wellbore temperature and pore pressure change upon the CO 2 injection. In this study, we performed history matching of CO 2 injection using coupled thermo-poro-elastic reservoir simulation to examine the possibility of fracturing. We built a reservoir model including vertical heterogeneity in both petrophysical and geomechanical properties estimated from well-logging analysis and laboratory experiments. The simulation results show that CO 2 injection changes stresses and support the hypothesis of development of an open-mode fracture at the injector during the Cranfield test. The near-injector region exhibits a large temperature reduction up to 55 °C with ensuing effective horizontal stress reduction up to 9.1 MPa. However, a caprock integrity issue is unlikely because of the horizontal stress contrast within layers and low hydraulic communication with the injection zone. This work indicates that the injectant temperature should be considered in the design of high-rate CO 2 injector.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Advanced information processing system: Hosting of advanced guidance, navigation and control algorithms on AIPS using ASTER

This program demonstrated the integration of a number of technologies that can increase the availability and reliability of launch vehicles while lowering costs. Availability is increased with an advanced guidance algorithm that adapts trajectories in real-time. Reliability is increased with fault-tolerant computers and communication protocols. Costs are reduced by automatically generating code and documentation. This program was realized through the cooperative efforts of academia, industry, and government. The NASA-LaRC coordinated the effort, while Draper performed the integration. Georgia Institute of Technology supplied a weak Hamiltonian finite element method for optimal control problems. Martin Marietta used MATLAB to apply this method to a launch vehicle (FENOC). Draper supplied the fault-tolerant computing and software automation technology. The fault-tolerant technology includes sequential and parallel fault-tolerant processors (FTP & FTPP) and authentication protocols (AP) for communication. Fault-tolerant technology was incrementally incorporated. Development culminated with a heterogeneous network of workstations and fault-tolerant computers using AP. Draper's software automation system, ASTER, was used to specify a static guidance system based on FENOC, navigation, flight control (GN&C), models, and the interface to a user interface for mission control. ASTER generated Ada code for GN&C and C code for models. An algebraic transform engine (ATE) was developed to automatically translate MATLAB scripts into ASTER.

Brenner, Richard↗

Development of Analysis Methods that Integrate Numeric and Textual Equipment Reliability Data

Within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway is performing collaborative research on the development and deployment of technologies designed to assist operating nuclear power plants (NPPs) to reduce operating costs improve plant reliability and availability. One of the RISA research areas is focusing on the development of methods and tools designed to optimize plant operations (e.g., maintenance/replacement schedules, optimal maintenance postures for plant structures, systems, and components [SSCs]) in a manner that is more cost effective than current approaches and makes better use of available SSC health data. The Risk-Informed Asset Management (RIAM) project targets this research area by creating a direct bridge between component equipment reliability (ER) data and system engineer decision making regarding maintenance activity scheduling and component aging management. In this respect, one challenge that NPP system engineers are facing is that the amount of ER data being continuously generated is not only extremely large in size, but it comes in different forms: textual (e.g., condition or maintenance reports) and numeric (e.g., generated by monitoring systems). All these data elements provide them with valuable insights and information regarding: 1) the discovery of anomalous behaviors or degradation trends, 2) the identification of the possible causes behind such behaviors/trends, and 3) the prediction of their direct consequences. However, several challenges have proved to be roadblocks to this process. While some of these challenges are technical in nature (i.e., data are often distributed over several physical servers/databases), others are conceptual in nature: data elements come in different formats (e.g., numeric or textual), and measured values have different scales (e.g., vibration spectra and oil temperature). The activities performed by the RIAM project during FY23 directly tackles the need to simultaneously integrate the analysis of ER data in all its forms, numeric and textual. Note that such task has never been performed before due to the complexity of the systems under consideration but, most importantly, because of the technical challenges behind the harmonization of ER data formats and the lack of adequate computational methods to analyze them. Our approach borrows ideas and concepts from the medical field where integration of several data sources is vital to assist medical practitioners to perform correct diagnosis and indicate optimal treatments. In our view a NPP asset is equivalent to a patient in a medical context. The main difference is the complexity of a human body is a magnitude more complex when compared to typical assets commonly present in NPPs (e.g., centrifugal pumps, or motor operated valves). This simplifies our first requirement when analyzing heterogenous ER data formats: to put data into “context”. Context is here intended as the additional piece of information that is needed by ER data analysis tools to understand what these data elements are referring to, i.e., which king of knowledge they are generating. In our context, this knowledge can be translated into models that capture the form and functional architecture of assets/systems, their dependencies, and how they interact. These models actually emulate the knowledge that that NPP system engineers possess about assets and systems; this is their key of success when analyzing ER data, their challenge is ability to handle large amount of data. Here, we employ model-based system engineering (MBSE) models of systems and assets to represent and capture their architecture and functional, i.e. cause-effect, relations. Then, ER data elements are processed by identifying first of all which elements of the developed MBSE elements they are referring to. For numeric ER data this task is fairly easy since it is possible to precisely pinpoint what MBSE elements the corresponding sensor are observing (e.g., bearing temperature of a centrifugal pump). Task is much harder for textual data since the information contained in issue or maintenance reports needs to “be understood” by a computational tool. Here we called this process as “knowledge extraction”. Once again, we borrow the experience in the medical field where methods to extract knowledge from textual data have been developed in the past decade. The missing element for us is the availability of a complete dictionary of NPP related concepts (in addition to the MBSE models presented earlier) that can put “text into context”. In FY23, such dictionary has been developed along with all the computational elements required for knowledge extraction. Lastly, once numeric and textual ER data elements have been processed and “understood”, then the last step is the discovery of possible cause-effect relations among them. This is performed by observing if a logical connection through the MBSE models exists, and if the

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Spectral distortions to momentum and scalar exchanges by non-turbulent motion and patchy landscape variability

Modifications to the spectra of turbulent velocity and scalars and co-spectra of vertical fluxes of momentum and scalars due to patchy landscape heterogeneity and non-stationarity are explored for a Mediterranean ecosystem. About 9 months of high frequency measurements of the three velocity components, water vapor concentration, carbon dioxide concentration, and air temperature were analyzed for different seasons (spring/summer) and prevalent wind directions (southeast/northwest). The two wind directions sampled a contrast of clumped and patchy landscape comprised of olive trees (southeast) and wall bounded flow disturbed by the presence of few upwind trees (northwest). The measured spectra and co-spectra were also compared to theoretical scaling forms from stationary, planar homogeneous flow, in the absence of subsidence as derived from the Kansas experiment. To assess the role of low frequency non-turbulent motion on the spectral and co-spectral content, a 5-min Fourier cutoff was introduced and the analysis was limited to near-neutral conditions where the boundary layer depth is shallow compared to its unstable counterpart. It was shown that the velocity statistics were not appreciably impacted by the low-frequency motion causing non-stationarity. Moreover, the turbulent scalar fluxes were also shown not to be significantly impacted by such low frequency motion. The scalar variances were impacted, especially the water vapor variance and its concomitant spectral shape. When the non-turbulent motion was filtered, the scalar spectra at low wavenumbers followed expectations from the so-called attached eddy hypothesis (i.e. exhibited a $k^{-1}_x$ scaling with $k_x$ defining the longitudinal wavenumber) applicable for near-neutral conditions. For momentum co-spectra, the canonical shapes from the Kansas experiment appear to describe well the measurements here and in both dominant directions and seasons with some adjustment to the integral time scales based on wind direction. For the scalar co-spectra, deviations from the Kansas experiment were prevalent. The most noticeable and surprising deviations were their slow decay with increased sampling frequency at inertial subrange scales. This slow decay was shown not to contribute appreciably to the overall scalar fluxes. At those fine scales, predictions from local isotropy were expected to hold. The scalar co-spectral deviations from local isotropy were then discussed using a simplified co-spectral budget model where scalar–scalar co-spectra naturally emerged and the interplay between landscape heterogeneity and a scale-dependent pressure-scalar de-correlation time was postulated. It is also envisaged that the findings here offer a preliminary template for analyzing eddy-covariance data in situations that deviate from ideal conditions, especially regarding low-frequency modulations of scalar spectra and vertical scalar flux co-spectra.

Canopy turbulence↗

A general non-Fourier Stefan problem formulation that accounts for memory effects

The Stefan problem is the classical model of a melting phase change. In heterogeneous systems, such phase changes can exhibit non-Fourier (anomalous) behaviors, where the advance of the melt interface does not follow the expected time scaling. These situations can be modeled by replacing the derivatives, in the governing partial differential equations, with fractional order derivatives. In particular, replacing the time derivatives leads to non-Fourier models that account for memory effects in the system. In this work, by using appropriate time convolution integrals, a general thermodynamic balance statement for melting phase problems, explicitly accounting for memory effects, is developed. From this balance, a general model formulation applicable to problems involving melting over a temperature range (i.e., a mushy region) is derived. A key component in this model is the representation of memory effects through the use of fractional derivative based constitutive models of the enthalpy and heat flux. Further, on shrinking the mushy region to a single isotherm, a general sharp interface melting model is obtained. Here, in contrast to the classic Stefan problem, the fractional derivatives induce a natural regularization, such that the constitutive models for enthalpy and heat flux are continuous at the melt interface; a result confirmed through numerical simulation. To further support the theoretical findings, a physical example of a non-Fourier Stefan problem is presented. Overall the development and results in this paper underscore the importance of explicitly relating the development of fractional calculus models to the appropriate thermodynamic balance statements.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Microbiome definition re-visited: old concepts and new challenges

The field of microbiome research has evolved rapidly over the past few decades, and has become a topic of great scientific and public interest. As a result of this rapid growth in interest covering different fields, we are lacking a clear commonly agreed definition of the term ‘microbiome’. Moreover, a consensus on best practices in microbiome research is missing. Recently, a panel of international experts discussed the current gaps in the frame of the European-funded MicrobiomeSupport project. The meeting brought together about 40 leaders from diverse microbiome areas, while more than a hundred experts from all over the world took part in an online survey accompanying the workshop. This article excerpts the outcomes of the workshop and the corresponding online survey embedded in a short historical introduction and uture outlook. We propose a definition of microbiome based on the compact, clear and comprehensive description of the term provided by Whipps et al. in 1988, amended with a set of novel recommendations considering the latest technological developments and research findings. We clearly separate the terms microbiome and microbiota, and provide a comprehensive discussion considering the composition of microbiota, the heterogeneity and dynamics of microbiomes in time and space, the stability and resilience of microbial networks, the definition of core microbiomes and functionally relevant keystone species as well as co-evolutionary principles of microbe-host and inter-species interactions within the microbiome. These broad definitions together with the suggested unifying concepts will help to improve standardization of microbiome studies in the future, and could be the starting point for an integrated assessment of data resulting in a more rapid transfer of knowledge from basic science into practice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diagnostic assessment of reservoir response to fracturing: a case study from Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site (HFTS) in Midland Basin

Abstract This paper outlines a data collection and diagnostics case study involving multiple horizontal shale wells. We look at well production profiles using rate transient analysis, differences in near wellbore complexity, geologic variations within the area of interest, as well as compositional differences in the rocks based on cores obtained from within the stimulated reservoir. The Hydraulic Fracturing Test Site is a multi-well experiment involving stimulation of unconventional shale wells in the southeastern Midland portion of the Permian Basin. The targeted formations include both the upper as well as the middle Wolfcamp formations, also referred alternatively as Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B. Data integration and analysis shared in this paper help us understand the various geologic controls impacting well productivity, particularly the wide variance observed between the Wolfcamp A and Wolfcamp B formations. Rate transient analysis indicates similar system permeabilities for stimulated wells. However, we observe higher effective fracture half-lengths for upper Wolfcamp wells. Using observations from 3D seismic interpretations (such as pad scale faults) as well as petrophysical and image log data, we highlight the substantial differences in stimulation as we move along the well laterals from the heel toward the toe sections. These differences are further reconciled with observations from zones with high data density at the core locations through stimulated rock, as well as independent data such as microseismic emissions. At the test site, Wolfcamp A was found to be relatively quartz rich with significant heterogeneity whereas Wolfcamp B is richer in clay and organic content. This impacts the geomechanical characteristics of the rock mass with much higher natural fracture density in the shallower interval. Thus, the fracture growth is more uniform in the deeper interval and more heterogeneous with branching likely in upper interval. Increased complexity also leads to consistently better productivity from the wells in the shallower interval as demonstrated from RTA results. This case study is unique because it provides valuable insights from actual sampling of the stimulated zones in hydraulically fractured wells and helps understand impact of various factors that contribute toward variability in well production. The findings from this study provides insights into need for optimization of completion designs in the various Wolfcamp landing zones, such as optimization of cluster or fracture spacing in various Wolfcamp intervals. In addition, it provides a useful template for data collection and research direction in future field test sites of similar nature in unconventional reservoirs.

Energy & Fuels↗

Predicting the structural basis of targeted protein degradation by integrating molecular dynamics simulations with structural mass spectrometry

Targeted protein degradation (TPD) is a promising approach in drug discovery for degrading proteins implicated in diseases. A key step in this process is the formation of a ternary complex where a heterobifunctional molecule induces proximity of an E3 ligase to a protein of interest (POI), thus facilitating ubiquitin transfer to the POI. In this work, we characterize 3 steps in the TPD process. (1) We simulate the ternary complex formation of SMARCA2 bromodomain and VHL E3 ligase by combining hydrogen-deuterium exchange mass spectrometry with weighted ensemble molecular dynamics (MD). (2) We characterize the conformational heterogeneity of the ternary complex using Hamiltonian replica exchange simulations and small-angle X-ray scattering. (3) We assess the ubiquitination of the POI in the context of the full Cullin-RING Ligase, confirming experimental ubiquitinomics results. Differences in degradation efficiency can be explained by the proximity of lysine residues on the POI relative to ubiquitin.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Using Co-Simulation to Model Interconnect-Scale Power Systems from Loads to Generators

Co-simulation is a modeling technique that allows analysts to combine simulation tools and their corresponding models to exchange data during run-time, allowing the creation of larger and more complex models across heterogeneous domains. HELICS is a co-simulation platform developed over the past six years that has been shown to be effective for these multi-domain analysis. Recently, a HELICS-based analysis was completed where the ERCOT electrical interconnect in the United States was modeled in high detail from bulk power system generation to individual customer loads. This model was used to evaluate a flat-rate and transactive energy tariff with integrated wholesale and retail real-time and day-ahead energy markets. This modeling allows detailed analysis showing how the operations of the power system under these tariffs impact all actors in the power system, from individual customers to bulk power system operators.

co-simulation, HELICS, transactive energy system, ↗

Cooperative Merging via Online Speed Replanning: A Model-Free Approach With Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communication Packet Drop Compensation

On-ramp merging is a critical bottleneck in freeway traffic flow, contributing to congestion, accidents, and excessive fuel consumption. Although traditional ramp metering provides macroscopic control, it lacks the granularity for optimizing an individual vehicle’s trajectory. Cooperative merging, enabled by connected and automated vehicles, can potentially enhance traffic efficiency, safety, and fuel economy. However, existing research often neglects the influence of heterogeneous vehicle dynamics, unreliable vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication, and real-time implementation challenges. Here, this paper introduces novel model-free online speed planners for cooperative on-ramp merging. The planners address these limitations by being agnostic to vehicle dynamics, effectively compensating for V2V communication packet drops and incurring only a light computational burden. Comprehensive evaluation, conducted on a real-time traffic-vehicle-communication co-simulation platform integrating high-fidelity vehicle dynamics, a traffic simulator, and recorded V2V communication footprints, demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed speed planners. Simulation results reveal that the proposed method yields accurate tracking of desired speed and inter-vehicle distance, maintaining low fuel consumption even under high packet drop ratios, and demonstrating real-time implementation efficiency.

Wang, Zejiang [Univ. of Texas at Dallas, Richardso↗

Phase I Final Technical Report on Energy-Efficient Reconfigurable Universal Accelerator Interconnect

It is well known that application specific computing systems, optimally designed and configured for a given workload, offer much higher energy-efficiency and throughput than general purpose systems. In modern computing systems, heterogeneous computing systems have emerged that exploit the energy and performance benefits of combining various different domain-specific processor architectures. Application domains such as high-performance computing and machine learning now process terabyte-sized data sets, requiring enormous processing and memory resources. These applications have very high-power consumption due to bottlenecks in the electrical interconnection between processing units. This project aims to reduce both communication energy and latency by integrating universally available accelerators with silicon photonics. It also aims to increase system throughput by exploiting emerging technologies in silicon photonic reconfigurable interconnects; this will allow the system to balance itself in real time to accommodate changes in workloads and data flows.

2.5D/3D integration↗

Impact of a Merged Precipitation Data on Global Soil Moisture Variability

Accurate soil moisture information has proved to be important to climate simulations and climate and weather forecasts. However, many difficulties exist that limit our understanding of soil moisture distribution and variability. One of them is the lack of accurate precipitation with appropriate spatial and temporal resolution. Precipitation as an input forcing to the land surface greatly influences soil moisture characteristics and variability. To improve precipitation data quality, an algorithm has been developed to generate a spatially and temporally continuous 3-hourly global precipitation data for the period of 1987 to present. This precipitation product is a combination of the precipitation from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI) with the Goddard Earth Observing System-1 Data Assimilation System (GEOS-1 DAS) employing a Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). In this study we investigate the impact of this merged/analyzed precipitation data on the global soil moisture variability using an Off-line Land-surface GEOS Assimilation (OLGA) system. Two OLGA integrations starting from 1987 to 1993 are performed forced with the analyzed and GEOS-1 DAS precipitation respectively. We examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of soil moisture variability in response to the analyzed precipitation. The influence of this merged precipitation on the soil moisture variability and regional hydrological budget is estimated throughout the comparison with the results forced with the GEOS-1 DAS precipitation only. In the OLGA the sut@-grid scale horizontal heterogeneity is explicitly represented on the tile space. This provides a means to assess the role of the surface moisture heterogeneity in the interaction with the surface atmosphere and surface hydrological budget, and to validate OLGA results at tile space with in situ observation. ABRACOS (Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study), FIFE (First ISLSCP Field Experiment) I and HAPEX data will be used in the validation.

Yang, Runhua↗

NASA-Modified Precipitation Products to Improve EPA Nonpoint Source Water Quality Modeling for the Chesapeake Bay

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has estimated that over 20,000 water bodies within the United States do not meet water quality standards. Ninety percent of the impairments are typically caused by nonpoint sources. One of the regulations in the Clean Water Act of 1972 requires States to monitor the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL), or the amount of pollution that can be carried by a water body before it is determined to be "polluted", for any watershed in the U.S.. In response to this mandate, the EPA developed Better Assessment Science Integrating Nonpoint Sources (BASINS) as a Decision Support Tool (DST) for assessing pollution and to guide the decision making process for improving water quality. One of the models in BASINS, the Hydrological Simulation Program -- Fortran (HSPF), computes daily stream flow rates and pollutant concentration at each basin outlet. By design, precipitation and other meteorological data from weather stations serve as standard model input. In practice, these stations may be unable to capture the spatial heterogeneity of precipitation events especially if they are few and far between. An attempt was made to resolve this issue by substituting station data with NASA modified/NOAA precipitation data. Using these data within HSPF, stream flow was calculated for seven watersheds in the Chesapeake Bay Basin during low flow periods, convective storm periods, and annual flows. In almost every case, the modeling performance of HSPF increased when using the NASA-modified precipitation data, resulting in better stream flow statistics and, ultimately, in improved water quality assessment.

Nigro, Joseph↗

Detecting Change in Urban Areas at Continental Scales with MODIS Data

Urbanization is one of the most important components of global environmental change, yet most of what we know about urban areas is at the local scale. Remote sensing of urban expansion across large areas provides information on the spatial and temporal patterns of growth that are essential for understanding differences in socioeconomic and political factors that spur different forms of development, as well the social, environmental, and climatic impacts that result. However, mapping urban expansion globally is challenging: urban areas have a small footprint compared to other land cover types, their features are small, they are heterogeneous in both material composition and configuration, and the form and rates of new development are often highly variable across locations. Here we demonstrate a methodology for monitoring urban land expansion at continental to global scales using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The new method focuses on resolving the spectral and temporal ambiguities between urban/non-urban land and stable/changed areas by: (1) spatially constraining the study extent to known locations of urban land; (2) integrating multitemporal data from multiple satellite data sources to classify c. 2010 urban extent; and (3) mapping newly built areas (2000-2010) within the 2010 urban land extent using a multi-temporal composite change detection approach based on MODIS 250 m annual maximum enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We test the method in 15 countries in East-Southeast Asia experiencing different rates and manifestations of urban expansion. A two-tiered accuracy assessment shows that the approach characterizes urban change across a variety of socioeconomic/political and ecological/climatic conditions with good accuracy (70-91% overall accuracy by country, 69-89% by biome). The 250 m EVI data not only improve the classification results, but are capable of distinguishing between change and no-change areas in urban areas. Over 80% of the error in the change detection can be related to definitional issues or error propagation, rather than algorithm error. As such, these methods hold great potential for routine monitoring of urban change, as well as for providing a consistent and up-to-date dataset on urban extent and expansion for a rapidly evolving region.

Urban areas↗