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At least 829 records · Page 46

Analysis of severe atmospheric disturbances from airline flight records

Advanced methods were developed to determine time varying winds and turbulence from digital flight data recorders carried aboard modern airliners. Analysis of several cases involving severe clear air turbulence encounters at cruise altitudes has shown that the aircraft encountered vortex arrays generated by destabilized wind shear layers above mountains or thunderstorms. A model was developed to identify the strength, size, and spacing of vortex arrays. This model is used to study the effects of severe wind hazards on operational safety for different types of aircraft. The study demonstrates that small remotely piloted vehicles and executive aircraft exhibit more violent behavior than do large airliners during encounters with high-altitude vortices. Analysis of digital flight data from the accident at Dallas/Ft. Worth in 1985 indicates that the aircraft encountered a microburst with rapidly changing winds embedded in a strong outflow near the ground. A multiple-vortex-ring model was developed to represent the microburst wind pattern. This model can be used in flight simulators to better understand the control problems in severe microburst encounters.

Wingrove, R. C.↗

Analysis of severe atmospheric disturbances from airline flight records

Advanced methods were developed to determine time varying winds and turbulence from digital flight data recorders carried aboard modern airliners. Analysis of several cases involving severe clear air turbulence encounters at cruise altitudes has shown that the aircraft encountered vortex arrays generated by destabilized wind shear layers above mountains or thunderstorms. A model was developed to identify the strength, size, and spacing of vortex arrays. This model is used to study the effects of severe wind hazards on operational safety for different types of aircraft. It is demonstrated that small remotely piloted vehicles and executive aircraft exhibit more violent behavior than do large airliners during encounters with high-altitude vortices. Analysis of digital flight data from the accident at Dallas/Ft. Worth in 1985 indicates that the aircraft encountered a microburst with rapidly changing winds embedded in a strong outflow near the ground. A multiple-vortex-ring model was developed to represent the microburst wind pattern. This model can be used in flight simulators to better understand the control problems in severe microburst encounters.

Wingrove, R. C.↗

Exploring Anomalous PM 2.5 from Wildfires and Dust Storms using Data and Services at NASA GES DISC

The presence of fine particles in the atmosphere with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm, called particulate matter 2.5 (PM 2.5 ), poses a significant threat to human health as a criteria air pollutant. Fortunately, NASA's Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) provides easy access to several PM 2.5 concentration products. These datasets include the reanalysis of global hourly and monthly aerosol components including PM 2.5 data from the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2), as well as 3-hourly real-time ensemble forecasts of PM 2.5 from the Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System (HAQES). The HAQES products are developed by the George Mason University Air Quality Laboratory as part of NASA's Health Air Quality Applied Science Team (HAQAST). The GES DISC is actively collaborating with scientists in the HAQAST program to further expand air quality data collections. Two new datasets are currently being archived: one is the machine learning-based global hourly PM 2.5 derived from MERRA-2; the other is the localized data (NO 2 , O 3 , and PM 2.5 ) time series derived from NASA's GEOS Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) system. In this presentation, we will explore the spatial patterns and long-distance transport characteristics of elevated PM 2.5 during extreme pollution events, such as the June 2023 Canadian wildfires, which are still active at the time of writing; and severe spring dust storms in 2023 over Asia. To gain comprehensive insights, we will utilize various PM 2.5 data in conjunction with satellite-observed aerosol data from TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on Sentinel-5P. The primary focus of this presentation will be to demonstrate effective use of data tools and services to visualize and explore extreme air pollution phenomena. Additionally, we will provide guidance on how users can download specific data of interest, facilitating further analysis and research in this critical area.

air quality↗

Life Cycle Cost Analysis of Prestressed Concrete Poles Subjected to Wind, Surges, and Waves

Prestressed concrete (PC) poles are becoming popular choices to support coastal power transmission systems. However, the existing literature does not offer a detailed analysis of the effectiveness of PC poles in terms of long-term vulnerabilities and the direct and indirect costs. This is due to (1) lack of fragility models for PC poles and (2) lack of probabilistic wind, storm surge, and wave models in coastal settings. In this study, we address these gaps through a series of Monte Carlo simulations to estimate fragility of PC poles as a function of age and hazard (wind, surges, and waves) intensity, and the development of a probabilistic hazard model based on 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone data. The probabilistic hazard model is used in conjunction with high-resolution hydrodynamic models to generate realizations of coastal wind, storm surges, and waves for the Louisiana and Mississippi coasts. A comprehensive life cycle cost analysis for a service life of 70 years considering direct and indirect losses is conducted to compare the performance of a transmission line located in Pascagoula, Mississippi, when wood poles are replaced by PC poles. Results showed that aging has a minor effect on the reliability of PC poles, highlighting the advantages of replacing wood poles with PC poles, especially in coastal areas. In addition, PC poles are significantly more cost-effective compared with wood poles over their life cycle, leading to an estimated saving of $11.55 million (68.17% reduction). The results of this study provide key insight to inform decision-making processes to keep the coastal power grids resilient and cost-effective against future storm hazards.

natural disasters↗

MELCOR-TMAP: The integration of MELCOR for fusion and TMAP4 for fusion reactor systems safety analysis and tritium inventory tracking

The design of fusion reactors requires the prediction of radioactive tritium migration during normal operating conditions and accident scenarios. Safety standards such as those from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) require that fusion reactor designs limit the release of hazardous material to the environment. In addition to safety requirements, the rarity of tritium supplies for burning D-T fusion plasma requires tritium breeding blankets. Computational modeling of migration of tritium and various reaction products throughout the fusion reactor serves to create designs that fulfill these requirements. MELCOR-TMAP, owned and developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), is an integrated system-level engineering code adapted for the analysis of fusion reactor systems. The history of the conception and evolution of the MELCOR-TMAP code, as well as its current capabilities, recent updates including a corrected composite material wall nodalization scheme, and plans for future development, are discussed here.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Analysis of Aviation Safety Reporting System Incident Data Associated with the Technical Challenges of the Atmospheric Environment Safety Technology Project

This study analyzed aircraft incidents in the NASA Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) that apply to two of the three technical challenges (TCs) in NASA's Aviation Safety Program's Atmospheric Environment Safety Technology Project. The aircraft incidents are related to airframe icing and atmospheric hazards TCs. The study reviewed incidents that listed their primary problem as weather or environment-nonweather between 1994 and 2011 for aircraft defined by Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) Parts 121, 135, and 91. The study investigated the phases of flight, a variety of anomalies, flight conditions, and incidents by FAR part, along with other categories. The first part of the analysis focused on airframe-icing-related incidents and found 275 incidents out of 3526 weather-related incidents over the 18-yr period. The second portion of the study focused on atmospheric hazards and found 4647 incidents over the same time period. Atmospheric hazards-related incidents included a range of conditions from clear air turbulence and wake vortex, to controlled flight toward terrain, ground encounters, and incursions.

Withrow, Colleen A.↗

Geographic, sectoral, and constituent characteristics of US off‐site manufacturing wastewater disposal

This study employs recent US Environmental Protection Agency off-site manufacturing wastewater disposal data and a socioenvironmental assessment tool for the United States to understand the characteristics of such disposal in terms of geography, major contributing sectors and pollutants, and environmental impacts. Environmental impact analyses of manufacturing are insufficient without encompassing the extended physical boundary of waste management. Our analysis reveals that off-site manufacturing wastewater disposal occurs disproportionately in populations residing in census tracts already negatively impacted by environmental hazards (impacted populations, or IPs) with 44% of transfers and 55% of Risk Screening Environmental Indicators (RSEI) Hazard going to these areas, compared to their national share of 37%. Disposal hazard is concentrated in a small number of populations, with a Gini coefficient of 0.99 for RSEI Hazard. Four manufacturing sub-sectors are significant generators: Chemicals, Fabricated Metals, Primary Metals, and Transportation Equipment, with Chemicals off-site wastewater disposal largely occurring in IPs. For individual contaminants, chromium compounds and chromium represent more than 85% of the hazard but less than 10% of transfers. We explore transfer distances and waste generation and disposal hotspots, finding that the Midwest hosts a disproportionate share of off-site wastewater disposal. Further, RSEI Hazard steeply rises at shorter distances and plateaus over distances >500 miles, revealing opportunities to reduce hazard by reducing 20–500-mile transfers. Our findings strongly support targeted mitigation strategies like process substitutions, control technologies, on-site recycling and treatment, and minimizing transfer distances. This article met the requirements for a gold-gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

Fuchs, Heidi [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborator↗

Benchmark solutions for the galactic ion transport equations: Energy and spatially dependent problems

Nontrivial benchmark solutions are developed for the galactic ion transport (GIT) equations in the straight-ahead approximation. These equations are used to predict potential radiation hazards in the upper atmosphere and in space. Two levels of difficulty are considered: (1) energy independent, and (2) spatially independent. The analysis emphasizes analytical methods never before applied to the GIT equations. Most of the representations derived have been numerically implemented and compared to more approximate calculations. Accurate ion fluxes are obtained (3 to 5 digits) for nontrivial sources. For monoenergetic beams, both accurate doses and fluxes are found. The benchmarks presented are useful in assessing the accuracy of transport algorithms designed to accommodate more complex radiation protection problems. In addition, these solutions can provide fast and accurate assessments of relatively simple shield configurations.

Ganapol, Barry D.↗

A preliminary investigation of inlet unstart effects on a high-speed civil transport concept

Vehicle motions resulting from a supersonic mixed-compression inlet unstart were examined to determine if the unstart constituted a hazard severe enough to warrant rejection of mixed-compression inlets on high-speed civil transport (HSCT) concepts. A simple kinematic analysis of an inlet unstart during cruise was performed for a Mach 2, 4, 250-passenger HSCT concept using data from a wind-tunnel test of a representative configuration with unstarted inlets simulated. A survey of previously published research on inlet unstart effects, including simulation and flight test data for the YF-12, XB-70, and Concorde aircraft, was conducted to validate the calculated results. It was concluded that, when countered by suitable automatic propulsion and flight control systems, the vehicle dynamics induced by an inlet unstart are not severe enough to preclude the use of mixed-compression inlets on an HSCT from a passenger safety standpoint. The ability to provide suitable automatic controls appears to be within the current state of the art. However, the passenger startle and discomfort caused by the noise, vibration, and cabin motions associated with an inlet unstart remain a concern.

Domack, Christopher S.↗

A Selected Operational History of the Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS) for International Space Station (ISS)

The Internal Thermal Control System (ITCS) has been developed jointly by Boeing Corporation, Huntsville, Alabama and Honeywell Engines & Systems, Torrance, California to meet the internal thermal control needs for the International Space Station (ISS). The ITCS provides heat removal for the critical life support systems and thermal conditioning for numerous experiment racks. The ITCS will be fitted on a number of modules on the ISS. The first US Element containing the ITCS, Node 1, was launched in December 1998. Since Node 1 does not contain a pump to circulate the fluid it was not filled with ITCS fluid until after the US Laboratory Module was installed. The second US Element module, US Laboratory Module, which contains the pumps and all the major ITCS control hardware, was launched in February 2001. The third US Element containing the ITCS, the US Airlock, was launched in July 2001. The dual loop system of the ITCS is comprised of a lowtemperature loop (LTL) and a moderate-temperature loop (MTL). Each loop has a pump package assembly (PPA), a system flow control assembly (SFCA), a threeway mixing valve (TWMV), several rack flow control assemblies (RFCA), cold plates, pressure sensors, temperature sensors, pump bypass assembly (PBA) and a heat exchanger. In addition, the MTL has an additional TWMV, a payload regeneration heat exchanger (P/RHE) and a manual flow control valve (MFCV). The LTL has a service performance and checkout unit (SPCU) heat exchanger. The two loops are linked via one loop crossover assembly (LCA) providing cross loop capabilities and a single PPA, two-loop functionality. One important parameter monitored by the ground stations and on-orbit is the amount of fluid leakage from the ITCS. ISS fluid leakage is of importance since ITCS fluid is costly to re-supply, may be difficult to clean up in zero-g, and if uncontained could lead to equipment failures and potential hazards. This paper examines the nominal leakage observed over period of a year of on-orbit operation and compares this with analysis predictions. This paper also addresses the off-nominal leakage and a fluid transfer event causing significant changes in accumulator quantity.

Patel, Vipul P.↗

Modeling the Risk of Fire/Explosion Due to Oxidizer/Fuel Leaks in the Ares I Interstage

A significant flight hazard associated with liquid propellants, such as those used in the upper stage of NASA's new Ares I launch vehicle, is the possibility of leakage of hazardous fluids resulting in a catastrophic fire/explosion. The enclosed and vented interstage of the Ares I contains numerous oxidizer and fuel supply lines as well as ignition sources. The potential for fire/explosion due to leaks during ascent depends on the relative concentrations of hazardous and inert fluids within the interstage along with other variables such as pressure, temperature, leak rates, and fluid outgasing rates. This analysis improves on previous NASA Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) estimates of the probability of deflagration, in which many of the variables pertinent to the problem were not explicitly modeled as a function of time. This paper presents the modeling methodology developed to analyze these risks.

Ring, Robert W.↗

DOE Award No.: DE-FE0023919 Phase 4 Scientific/Technical Report

This is the Phase 4 Report for the ‘Deepwater Methane Hydrate Characterization and Scientific Assessment or Genesis of Methane Hydrates in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM2)’ research project (DOE Award No. DE-FE0023919). The report summarizes activities from October 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020. The project is led by the University of Texas at Austin (UT). The project objective is to gain insight into the nature, formation, occurrence and physical properties of methane hydrate-bearing sediments for the purpose of methane hydrate resource appraisal through the planning and execution of drilling, coring, logging, testing and analytical activities that assess the geologic occurrence, regional context, and characteristics of marine methane hydrate deposits in the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf (OCS). We published a dedicated American Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin volume describing initial results from the UT-GOM2-1 expedition in Sept. 2020. This is part 1 of a multi-volume commitment by AAPG to this project. We further confirmed that the natural gas in hydrate at GC-955 was formed by primary microbial processes (>76.1 %). The in-situ effective permeability hydrate-bearing sandy silts at the GC-955 reservoir ranges from 0.1 md (1.0×10-16 m2) to 2.4 md (2.4×10-15m2) in cores with 83% to 93% hydrate saturation. The intrinsic permeability (the single phase permeability) is estimated from reconstituted samples to be ~12 md (1.2×10-14 m2) to ~41 md (4.1×10-14 m2). We used observation and models to interpret that the core degradation that is found in pressure cores is due to dissociation of the methane hydrate in the outer circumference of the core and dissolution of that methane into the fresh pore water that the core is stored with. We are designing approaches to minimize this core loss in the future. We spent an enormous amount of effort to further improve the ability of the pressure coring tool (the PCTB) to pressure seal correctly. We completed upgrading the upper section of the PCTB to address poor pressure. We successful tested the modifications at Geotek’s test facility in Salt Lake City (Bench Test II). We completed a Land Test of the PCTB at the Schlumberger Cameron Test and Training Facility (CTTF). The tool did not seal in 6 out of 7 tests and we clearly demonstrated that cuttings were wedging in the ball valve assembly, keeping the ball valve from sealing. We reproduced the failure mechanism observed during the land test at Salt Lake City and confirmed the sensitivity of the ball valve assembly to grit. Geotek designed and tested 9 modifications to address this issue and the PCTB is now 100% successfully sealing in the presence of grit. Our science expedition is scheduled for spring 2022 and we are fully focused on preparing for this. UT and Ohio State completed a Shallow Hazard Assessment report for each proposed UT-GOM2-2 drilling location, pursuant to 30 CFR 250.214(f) and 250.244 (f). The Shallow Hazard Reports will accompany the UT-GOM2-2 Exploration Plan that is submitted to BOEM, and completes the geological and geophysical analysis for UT-GOM2-2 permitting efforts. We updated the UT-GOM2-2 Operations Plan (Version 1). We completed the UT-GOM2-2 Science and Sample Distribution Plan (Version 1). We evaluated the scope, budget, and schedule that would result from using a commercial vessel. We developed detailed drilling schedule, mud volume, and resource estimates. We developed a vessel specification document and a well plan, and sent these documents to prospective vessel contractors.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Protecting Crew and Surface Systems with a Long-Duration Lunar Safe Haven

NASA’s Artemis program will send astronauts to the lunar surface for extended mission durations throughout the 2030s, with a focus on sustainability and extensibility for Mars exploration, as described in NASA’s “Artemis Plan”. However, NASA must place more emphasis on protecting both the crew and the exploration surface systems if they hope to achieve long-duration sustainability on the lunar surface. It is now reasonably achievable with excavation, construction, and autonomy technologies to achieve a significant level of protection that architectures have been unable to achieve to date. The Lunar Safe Haven (LSH) was proposed to protect astronauts, electronics, and other surface exploration systems from the hazards of the lunar environment, including radiation, micrometeoroid strikes, lunar dust, thermal vacuum, etc. During the study, Level Zero Requirements were developed for the LSH, and a decision analysis framework was baselined to evaluate concepts. The LSH Study also performed a comprehensive trade study, during which it identified numerous alternatives for establishing and maintaining a safe haven shelter on the lunar surface. This paper reviews the products developed during the study and presents the final recommendations.

radiation shielding↗

Characterization of Microgravity Effects on Bone Structure and Strength Using Fractal Analysis

Protecting humans against extreme environmental conditions requires a thorough understanding of the pathophysiological changes resulting from the exposure to those extreme conditions. Knowledge of the degree of medical risk associated with the exposure is of paramount importance in the design of effective prophylactic and therapeutic measures for space exploration. Major health hazards due o musculoskeletal systems include the signs and symptoms of hypercalciuria, lengthy recovery of lost bone tissue after flight, the possibility of irreversible trabecular bone loss, the possible effect of calcification in the soft tissues, and the possible increase in fracture potential. In this research, we characterize the trabecular structure with the aid of fractal analysis. Our research to relate local trabecular structural information to microgravity conditions is an important initial step in understanding the effect of microgravity and countermeasures on bone condition and strength. The proposed research is also closely linked with Osteoporosis and will benefit the general population.

Acharya, Raj S.↗

Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) Cost-Benefit Analysis

Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC) are designed to prevent space launch vehicles from flight through environments conducive to natural or triggered lightning and are used for all U.S. government and commercial launches at government and civilian ranges. They are maintained by a committee known as the NASA/USAF Lightning Advisory Panel (LAP). The previous LLCC for anvil cloud, meant to avoid triggered lightning, have been shown to be overly restrictive. Some of these rules have had such high safety margins that they prohibited flight under conditions that are now thought to be safe 90% of the time, leading to costly launch delays and scrubs. The LLCC for anvil clouds was upgraded in the summer of 2005 to incorporate results from the Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) experiment at the Eastern Range (ER). Numerous combinations of parameters were considered to develop the best correlation of operational weather observations to in-cloud electric fields capable of rocket triggered lightning in anvil clouds. The Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) was the best metric found. Dr. Harry Koons of Aerospace Corporation conducted a risk analysis of the VAHIRR product. The results indicated that the LLCC based on the VAHIRR product would pose a negligible risk of flying through hazardous electric fields. Based on these findings, the Kennedy Space Center Weather Office is considering seeking funding for development of an automated VAHIRR algorithm for the new ER 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) RadTec 431250 weather radar and Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) radars. Before developing an automated algorithm, the Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) was tasked to determine the frequency with which VAHIRR would have allowed a launch to safely proceed during weather conditions otherwise deemed "red" by the Launch Weather Officer. To do this, the AMU manually calculated VAHIRR values based on candidate cases from past launches with known anvil cloud LLCC violations. An automated algorithm may be developed if the analyses from past launches show VAHIRR would have provided a significant cost benefit by allowing a launch to proceed. The 45 WS at the ER and 30th Weather Squadron (30 WS) at the Western Range provided the AMU with launch weather summaries from past launches that were impacted by LLCC. The 45 WS provided summaries from 14 launch attempts and the 30 WS fkom 5. The launch attempts occurred between December 2001 and June 2007. These summaries helped the AMU determine when the LLCC were "red" due to anvil cloud. The AMU collected WSR-88D radar reflectivity, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes, soundings and satellite imagery. The AMU used step-by-step instructions for calculating VAHIRR manually as provided by the 45 WS. These instructions were used for all of the candidate cases when anvil cloud caused an LLCC violation identified in the launch weather summaries. The AMU evaluated several software programs capable of visualizing radar data so that VAHIRR could be calculated and chose GR2Analyst from Gibson Ridge Software, LLC. Data availability and lack of detail from some launch weather summaries permitted analysis of six launch attempts from the ER and none from the WR. The AMU did not take into account whether or not other weather LCC violations were occurring at the same time as the anvil cloud LLCC since the goal of this task was to determine how often VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC at any time during several previous launch attempts. Therefore, in the statistics presented in this report, it is possible that even though VAHIRR provided relief to the anvil cloud LLCC, other weather LCC could have been violated not permitting the launch to proceed. The results of this cost-benefit analysis indicated VAHIRR provided relief from the anvil cloud LLCC between about 15% and 18% of the time for varying 5-minute time periods based on summaries fkom six launch attempts and would have allowed launch to proceed that were otherwise "NO GO" due to the anvil cloud LLCC if the T-0 time occurred during the anvil cloud LLCC violations.

Bauman, William H., III↗

Supercooled Liquid Water Content Instrument Analysis and Winter 2014 Data with Comparisons to the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System and Pilot Reports

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has developed a system for remotely detecting the hazardous conditions leading to aircraft icing in flight, the NASA Icing Remote Sensing System (NIRSS). Newly developed, weather balloon-borne instruments have been used to obtain in-situ measurements of supercooled liquid water during March 2014 to validate the algorithms used in the NIRSS. A mathematical model and a processing method were developed to analyze the data obtained from the weather balloon soundings. The data from soundings obtained in March 2014 were analyzed and compared to the output from the NIRSS and pilot reports.

aviation meterology↗

Integrated Analysis of Interferometric SAR, Satellite Altimetry and Hydraulic Modeling to Quantify Louisiana Wetland Dynamics

Wetland loss in Louisiana has been accelerating due primarily to anthropogenic and nature processes, and is being advocated as a problem with national importance. Accurate measurement or modeling of wetland-wide water level changes, its varying extent, its storage and discharge changes resulting in part from sediment loads, erosion and subsidence are fundamental to assessment of hurricane-induced flood hazards and wetland ecology. Here, we use innovative method to integrate interferometric SAR (InSAR) and satellite radar altimetry for measuring absolute or geocentric water level changes and applied the methodology to remote areas of swamp forest in coastal Louisiana. Coherence analysis of InSAR pairs suggested that the HH polarization is preferred for this type of observation, and polarimetric analysis can help to identi:fy double-bonnce backscattering areas in the wetland. Envisat radar altimeter-measured 18- Hz (along-track sampling of 417 m) water level data processed with regional stackfile method have been used to provide vertical references for water bodies separated by levees. The high-resolution (approx.40 m) relative water changes measured from ALOS PALSAR L-band and Radarsat-l C-band InSAR are then integrated with Envisat radar altimetry to obtain absolute water level. The resulting water level time series were validated with in situ gauge observations within the swamp forest. Furthermore, we compare our water elevation changes with 2D flood modeling from LISFLOOD hydrodynamic model. Our study demonstrates that this new technique allows retrospective reconstruction and concurrent monitoring of water conditions and flow dynamics in wetlands, especially those lacking gauge networks.

Lee, Hyongki↗

Association of female reproductive and hormonal factors with gallbladder cancer risk in Asia: A pooled analysis of the Asia Cohort Consortium

Abstract The female predominance of gallbladder cancer (GBC) has led to a hypothesis regarding the hormone‐related aetiology of GBC. We aimed to investigate the association between female reproductive factors and GBC risk, considering birth cohorts of Asian women. We conducted a pooled analysis of 331,323 women from 12 cohorts across 4 countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Singapore) in the Asia Cohort Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to assess the association between reproductive factors (age at menarche, parity, age at first delivery, breastfeeding, and age at menopause) and GBC risk. We observed that a later age at menarche was associated with an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.16–1.70 for 17 years and older vs. 13–14 years), especially among the cohort born in 1940 and later (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.50–4.35). Among the cohort born before 1940, women with a later age at first delivery showed an increased risk of GBC (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.08–2.24 for 31 years of age and older vs. 20 years of age and younger). Other reproductive factors did not show a clear association with GBC risk. Later ages at menarche and at first delivery were associated with a higher risk of GBC, and these associations varied by birth cohort.

Shin, Aesun↗