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The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 3. Electricity Demand Projections

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter explores how electricity is consumed by customers now, how that might change through 2045, and potential opportunities to better align electricity demand and supply.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 4. Customer-Adopted Rooftop Solar and Storage

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter explores the technical and economic potential for rooftop solar in LA, and how much solar and storage might be adopted by customers.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 5. Utility Options for Local Solar and Storage

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter identifies and ranks locations for utility-scale solar (ground-mount, parking canopy, and floating) and storage, and associated costs for integrating these assets into the distribution system.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 6. Renewable Energy Investments and Operations

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter explores pathways to 100% renewable electricity, describing the types of generation resources added, their costs, and how the systems maintain sufficient resources to serve customer demand, including resource adequacy and transmission reliability.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 7. Distribution System Analysis

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter summarizes the growth in distribution-connected energy resources and provides a detailed review of impacts to the distribution grid of growth in customer electricity demand, solar, and storage, as well as required distribution grid upgrades and associated costs.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 8. Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter summarizes greenhouse gas emissions from power, buildings, and transportation sectors, along with the potential costs of those emissions.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 9. Air Quality and Public Health

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter summarizes changes to air quality (fine particulate matter and ozone) and public health (premature mortality, emergency room visits due to asthma, and hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases), and the potential economic value of public health benefits.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 10. Environmental Justice

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter explores implications for environmental justice, including procedural and distributional justice, with an in-depth review of how projections for customer rooftop solar and health benefits vary by census tract.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 11. Economic Impacts and Jobs

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter reviews economic impacts, including local net economic impacts and gross workforce impacts.

100% Renewable↗

The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100): Chapter 12. Synthesis

The City of Los Angeles has set ambitious goals to transform its electricity supply, aiming to achieve a 100% renewable energy power system by 2045, along with aggressive electrification targets for buildings and vehicles. To reach these goals, and assess the implications for jobs, electricity rates, the environment, and environmental justice, the Los Angeles City Council passed a series of motions directing the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to determine the technical feasibility and investment pathways of a 100% renewable energy portfolio standard. The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Study (LA100) is a first-of-its-kind objective, rigorous, and science-based power systems analysis to determine what investments could be made to achieve these goals. The LA100 final report is presented as a collection of 12 chapters and an executive summary, each of which is available as an individual download. This chapter reviews high-level findings, costs, benefits, and lessons learned from integrating this diverse suite of models and conducting a high-fidelity 100% renewable energy study.

100% Renewable↗

U.S. Department of Energy’s Industrial Decarbonization Roadmap

The science is clear that significant greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions are needed to moderate the severe impacts of ongoing climate change. Bold action is needed, and the Biden Administration has set goals of 100% carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035 and net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. The U.S. Long-Term Strategy (LTS) presents multiple pathways to a net-zero economy by no later than 2050. Addressing environmental justice and energy equity will be integral to meeting these climate goals. The United States’ overall industrial decarbonization strategy will support the Biden Administration’s Justice40 Initiative, which pledges that at least 40% of overall benefits from federal investments in climate and clean energy will be delivered to disadvantaged communities. The U.S. net-zero GHG 2050 goal, while ambitious, is achievable and will provide important benefits for all Americans in terms of public health, economic growth, reduced conflict from climate-related disasters, and quality of life. While this roadmap focuses on GHG emissions, other pollutant emissions will also need to be addressed as industry decarbonizes. Developing new technologies to reduce GHG emissions is an important opportunity to address other environmental issues and inequities. DOE is currently focusing on energy and environmental justice in complementary programs and initiatives. The U.S. industrial sector is considered a “difficult-to-decarbonize” sector of the energy economy, in part because of the diversity of energy inputs that feed into a heterogenous array of industrial processes and operations. In 2020, the industrial sector accounted for 33% of the nation’s primary energy use and 30% of energy-related carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Biochemical Conversion of Lignocellulosic Biomass to Hydrocarbon Fuels and Products: 2022 State of Technology and Future Research

The annual State of Technology (SOT) assessment is a key activity for biochemical platform research. It allows the impact of research progress (both directly achieved in-house at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory [NREL] and indirectly extrapolated from available public data) to be quantified in terms of economic improvements in the overall cellulosic biofuel production process for a particular conversion pathway. As such, initial benchmarks can be established for currently demonstrated performance and progress can be tracked toward out-year goals to ultimately demonstrate cost-competitive biofuel technology. Building upon efforts to progress NREL's biochemical platform R&D work toward ultimate 2030 goals to demonstrate less than $2.50/gallon gasoline equivalent (GGE) fuel selling prices, experimental and techno-economic analysis (TEA) activities have primarily focused on "advanced" biochemical processing strategies to fuels and coproducts, guided by TEA modeling to highlight key barriers and priorities toward achieving this goal across a number of potential bioconversion pathways. The purpose of the present effort is to benchmark the latest experimental developments for these pathways as quantified by modeled minimum fuel selling prices (MFSPs), as a measure of current status relative to those final targets. For this SOT, TEA models were run for two separate biological conversion pathways to fuels, based on available data for integrated biomass deconstruction and hydrolysate processing; namely carboxylic acids (primarily butyric acid) and diols (2,3-butanediol [BDO]), reflecting NREL's recently published 2018 biochemical design report focused on those two pathways. The models were run across two scenarios for lignin utilization, namely combustion and conversion to value-added coproducts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Risk-Informed MultiPphysics BestEestimate Plus Uncertainties (BEPU) Application Development of RELAP5-3D Perturbation Model

The United States nuclear industry is facing a strong challenge to ensure maximum safety while enhancing economic benefit. Safety is a key parameter to all aspects related to light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs), especially cost savings. Since the goal is to extend the lifetimes of these NPPs, the traditional deterministic safety concept may not guarantee a current economic asset. The Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program has been promoting a wide range of research and development (R&D) in this field to maximize the safety, economics, and performance of these NPPs through improved scientific understanding. One of the best practices to achieve this goal is to identify and optimize safety margins, which can lead to cost reduction. To do this, under the LWRS framework, the Risk-Informed Systems Analysis (RISA) Pathway will focus on the optimization of safety margin and minimization of uncertainties to ensure both safety and economics at the highest level. The RISA Pathway will provide enhanced capabilities for analyzing and characterizing LWR systems performance by developing and demonstrating methods, tools, and data to enable risk-informed margins management (RIMM). The goals of the RISA Pathway are twofold: (1) deploy the risk-informed tools and methods that enable better representation of safety margins and factors that contribute to cost and safety; and (2) conduct advanced risk assessment applications with industry to support margin management strategies that enable more cost-effective plant operation. The tools and methods provided by the RISA Pathway will support effective margin management for both active and passive safety systems, structures, and components (SSC) of an NPP. The tools and methods used in the RISA Pathway should have high confidence and highest technical maturity for and implementation to industry at its current setting. They should also have a capability to support risk-informed decision making for both probabilistic and deterministic elements of safety. The RISA Pathway will, therefore, perform a comprehensive assessment of verification and validation (V&V) status of RISA Toolkit to enhance credibility RISA Toolkit which be used by industry. This report summarizes RELAP5-3D development activities for best estimated and uncertainty (BEPU) capability to support ongoing RISA Pathway pilot projects for risk informed uncertainty quantification applications. Work scope includes (1) development of initial perturbation model for selected closure laws and (2) testing of suitable probability distribution functions (PDF) for the selected correlations. Developed BEPU modules are tested with selected separate effect cases and compared with conventional thermal-hydraulics model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Technology Maturation of Wireless Harsh Environment Sensors For Improved Condition Based Monitoring Of Coal Fired Power Generation

The overall goal of this project was to demonstrate and develop the usage of high-temperature (HT) harsh-environment (HE) wireless surface acoustic wave resonator (SAWR) sensor technology to promote reliable maintenance through condition-based maintenance (CBM) for field applications in harsh service conditions associated with power plant environments. The project aimed to advance the HT HE wireless SAWR sensor technology from TRL 5 to TRL 7. In addition to HT HE wireless temperature sensing, efforts were dedicated during this project to investigate, develop and increase the TRL from 3 to 5 for the following technologies: (a) HT HE strain sensors to address additional CBM monitoring needs, such as boiler tube mechanical / thermal stresses, which can provide early indications for boiler tube cracking and failure; and (b) HT aluminum nitride (AlN) and scandium aluminum nitride (ScAlN) based piezoelectric thin film fabrication and implementation of SAW sensors, with the goal of releasing the need to use single crystal piezoelectric materials for SAWRs and thus broaden possible technology applications to non-planar and harder to modify surfaces. To achieve the goals mentioned above, UMaine and its partner, Environetix Technologies Corporation, established partnerships with the following power plants: Longview Power (Maidsville, WV), a coal-fired power plant; Penobscot Energy Recovery Corp (PERC, Orrington, ME), a waste-to-energy power plant; and the UMaine Steam Plant (Orono, ME), an oil / natural gas power plant. To realize wireless HT HE SAWR sensor systems in these harsh service conditions, the University of Maine research team worked with Environetix and these power plants to define, design, fabricate, test and validate a mature prototype wireless temperature SAWR sensor system for boiler tube applications within the HT HE of the reheater pass damper chamber to directly and wirelessly monitor the temperature at eighteen independent boiler tube locations. The system included three levels, or “tiers”, of wireless communication to enable remote monitoring: Tier 1, the wireless link in the reheater pass damper chamber directly accessing the sensors on the boilers; Tier 2, the wireless local area network link, transmitting processed sensor information within the power plant to the Tier 3, a commercial wireless signal carrier company for secure remote data monitoring outside of the power plant. Regarding the wireless sensor system installed at Longview Power, temperature information from the boilers was continuously transmitted from the Longview boilers at Maidsville, WV, to Environetix headquarters, Orono, ME, over a 34 month period, when the system was finally decommissioned. Strain sensors and piezoelectric ScAlN thin film sensors were successfully installed on the exhaust duct at the UMaine Steam Power plant. The advances in wireless strain sensors and thin film piezoelectric film fabrication and testing were performed mostly in UMaine laboratories and field tested at the UMaine Steam Plant, due to its close proximity to UMaine/Environetix, access to the plant facility, and due to difficulties in accessing the other power plants during the COVID shut-down period. The project accomplished the TRL level increase of the targeted CBM technologies through the successful fabrication, installation, test, and validation of dedicated and commercial wireless sensor systems, utilizing the three different power plants. The outcomes of this project, including the wireless sensor data capability, are expected to yield an advance for CBM in harsh power plant environments. The reduction of maintenance costs, improved safety during plant operation, and increased power plant efficiency will lead to increased revenues (i.e., fewer forced outages) due to better process monitoring enabled by the wireless HT HE SAWR temperature sensor technology.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

The GammaSpec Package for Automated Gamma-ray Analysis (V.1.0)

This report describes the GammaSpec package, a tool developed to automate the analysis and comparison of gamma-ray spectra. The goal of this tool is to drastically reduce, or even eliminate, currently time consuming processes for comparing large sets of gamma-ray measurements. There are a number of potential applications for this work throughout the laboratory, but particularly within Global Security. Current work flows where large numbers of measured spectra must be compared for anomolies and outliers often consist of loading and visually inspecting individual spectra, or utilizing small-batch tools. One such example is the PeakEasy tool also developed at LANL. PeakEasy has a robust and tested feature set for calibrating, identifying, and fitting gamma-ray spectra. However it’s intention was not for batch processing and automated comparison of large numbers of spectra. This tool is not intended to replace PeakEasy in an analyzers arsenal, but to instead augment it. The intention here is to automate the isolation of spectra of particular interest, which can then be studied in further detail. This report is arranged as follows. Section 2 lays out the design goals and desired functionality of the package. Section 3 describes the algorithms developed and chosen to accomplish those goals. Section 4 describes the primary interaction with the tool, as well as it’s resulting output. Following these sections, results are presented from a set of example datasets from High Purity Germanium (HPGe) detectors in Sec. 5. Finally, the current status is summarized in Sec. 6.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Building Neutron Scattering Infrastructure in Louisiana for Advanced Materials (Final Report)

The main objective of the Louisiana Consortium for Neutron Scattering (LaCNS) is to build a major neutron scattering infrastructure capable of treating both soft and hard materials. The goal is to create a sustainable effort having the quality, breadth, and depth necessary to produce competitive proposals including collaborative and center type proposals. Our scientific aim is to understand the role of coupling in emergent complex materials and its impact on the structure/property relationship and to explore how to tune the key couplings to guide the design of materials with the desired properties. This naturally includes building a base of users of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) and the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) in Louisiana; to train highly talented graduate and post-doctoral students in synthesis, neutron scattering, and simulation and modeling techniques, thereby helping to produce the next generation of scientist who use neutron scattering techniques as a crucial part of their research. The goal of our hard matter program is to understand the interplay between spin, charge, orbital, and lattice degrees of freedom in carefully selected complex materials. We have made considerable progress on number of complex systems including the oxide Sr3(Ru1-xMnx)2O7 where short-range magnetic ordering with anisotropic spin texture is initiated at the metal-insulator transition that clearly indicates a strong spin-charge coupling. Another critical area is in quantum materials. For example, in the topological semimetal BaMnSb2, we found a 3D canted antiferromagnetic Weyl semimetal with a 2D electronic structure and a nontrivial Berry phase. In addition, in the hexagonal chiral Mn1/3NbS2 system, we found soliton/soliton and soliton/antisoliton domain walls where the application of small fields or small currents can be used to control nanoscopic magnetic domains where the control of domain walls is crucially important for information storage. In addition, chemical transformation investigations were performed on the VISION instrument at Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). The soft matter effort was focused on understanding the role of non-covalent interactions on the structure and dynamics of fluid-based soft matter. One key focus was on sequence-defined (SD) amphiphilic peptoid polymers that allow encoding of molecular interactions and thereby systematic investigations of how charge directs the solution self-assembly of amphiphilic polymers in water. Another important area was on the dynamics of lipids self-assembled into membranes for exploring the permeability and mechanical using both neutron spin echo (NSE) spectroscopy and quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) to distinguished between viscoelasticity and permeability at the molecular scale. Overall, the LaCNS project was quite successful, generating 145 publications and 245 presentations. Our graduate and post-doctoral students were well trained resulting in positions in national laboratories (Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Argonne National Laboratory and Los Alamos National Laboratory), major research universities, and industry. We also developed a uniaxial pressure cell along with ORNL for SNS. A critical goal of this project was to establish a foundation for competing nationally in federally funded research programs. To this end, we were quite successful in generating over twenty-two federally and non-federally funded grants including awards from NSF, DOE, and DOD, and two early career awards. Equally important, we were able to secure a key major piece of instrumentation via a large ARO grant for a state-of-the-art electron microscope.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Framework for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Planning: Building Portfolios

The goal of this framework for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction planning (ERP) is to provide guidance to organizations seeking to reduce GHG emissions for their building portfolios and vehicle fleets. The process described in this framework helps organizations develop an actionable plan that prioritizes emissions reduction measures, identifies solutions, and lays out a phased pathway to achieve deep emissions reductions. The plan aims to result in the achievement of Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions reduction targets, in alignment with goals set within the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Better Climate Challenge, as well as longer term emissions reduction goals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Selective Electrochemical Capture and Release of Uranyl in Solution (Final Report)

The goal of this project is to investigate the selective, electrochemical capture and release of uranyl ((UO 2 ) 2 +) from biphasic or heterogeneous mixtures using a class of cluster molecules, ortho-carboranes (Cb), containing selective binding groups. Possible applications in PUREX, seawater uranyl extraction, or in actinide/lanthanide (An/Ln) or Ln/Ln separations are envisioned. With this funding, we sought to achieve these goals by harnessing the redox-switchable chelating properties of the “closo” Cb to the reduced “nido” Cb enabling the electrochemical control of the ligand bite angle. Using this premise, specific goals include: 1) integrating new selective coordinating groups (L) onto the carbon positions of Cb for the selective capture and release of uranyl, and; 2) anchoring these selective carboranes onto electrode and/or heterogeneous surfaces for the selective, heterogeneous capture and release of uranyl from aqueous solutions under flow conditions. Overall, this work focuses on advancing our understanding and controlling the properties of this new platform for metal capture and release chemistry which, we believe, has the potential for broader applicability in the separation sciences.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗