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DOE Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) 2023 Project Peer Review: WBS 2.4.1.100 Bench Scale Research & Development

Bench Scale Integration develops and optimizes fermentation processes to produce bio-based fuels and chemicals for commercial scale-up. The project uses fermentation science to achieve high titers and production rates by, for example, manipulating how the microorganisms are fed biomass sugars and nutrients, modifying fermentation conditions (pH, temperature, aeration) or developing online control strategies for better fermentation operations and high titer, rates, and yield (TRY). For this period of performance, we continued our development of a commercial-ready 2,3-butanediol (BDO) fermentation from biomass sugars utilizing NREL's proprietary Zymomonas mobilis microorganism. The engineered Z. mobilis can use all the main sugars in corn stover biomass, which are glucose, xylose, and arabinose. BDO is a versatile, low-carbon chemical which can be catalytically upgraded to a variety of hydrocarbon fuels and chemicals. The project had three goals during this review period; evaluate the technical feasibility of using whole slurry pretreated corn stover to achieve the techno-economic analysis (TEA) performance goals, continue optimizing a liquor-based fed-batch fermentation process for high titer, and develop strategies to enable scale-up. After evaluating different iterations of a whole slurry fermentation that did not meet the TEA goals, a Go/No-Go decision was made to pivot to liquor-only with new TEA performance targets, the main one being 140 g/L titer. We successfully met this goal, producing 141 g/L BDO at 1 g/L-hr productivity and 84% process yield. This titer and productivity attracted industrial interest to scale the fermentation resulting in a Technology Commercialization Fund project award in 2022. We used an NREL developed near-infra red (NIR) spectroscopy method for rapid analysis which allowed for changes to aeration levels and sugar feeding during the fermentation to maximize BDO production. The NIR analysis can be done using a hand-held spectrometer, essentially taking the analysis on to the plant floor during scale-up and preliminary work shows the feasibility of using an online probe for continuous monitoring and control. The other scale-up tool is mapping oxygen transfer coefficient (kLa) and oxygen transfer rate (OTR) in various vessels to find conditions that match the optimized 500 mL vessels. Showing a correlation to the mapping work, which is done with water and a dissolved oxygen probe, can reduce the risk of failed fermentations during scale-up. Our end-of-project goal is to meet the design target BDO titer (140-150 g/L) from DMR corn stover liquor at 1000L or larger scale to demonstrate BDO process design case and transfer the technology to industrial fermentation stakeholders for commercialization.

2 3-butanediol↗

Low Tidal Current Speed Electricity Generation for Power at an Aquaculture Farm

Aquaculture farms are often located where tidal currents speeds are strong enough to ensure the currents supply fresh nutrients but not so strong that they harm the farm infrastructure. Traditional tidal turbines have cut-in speeds of 1 m/s and cannot generate electricity at current speeds below that threshold. Current energy converters that rely on vortex induced vibration (VIV) for movement can generate electricity at current speeds below 1 m/s. Here we discuss a project where researchers from the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) collaborate with researchers from the University of Michigan to investigate the feasibility of using a VIV current energy converter to generate electricity at an aquaculture farm. The VIV current energy converter uses flow induced oscillations of tandem cylinders and adaptive damping to harness the maximum horizontal marine hydrokinetic (MHK) energy by mimicking fish undulations. The current energy converter will be field tested and its power output measured over a range of current speeds. In addition to working with the University of Michigan, the PNNL researchers are collaborating with the Hog Island Oyster Company to assess their electricity usage and quantify the current energy resources at their Humboldt Bay facility. The electricity usage and current resource assessment at the aquaculture farm will be compared to the power produced by VIVACE to determine the feasibility of using VIVACE for power production at the farm.

Branch, Ruth A.↗

Zero Valent Iron for Reductive Removal of Technetium-99 from Aqueous Sulfate Solutions - 20347

This research investigates the reductive removal of technetium-99 ({sup 99}Tc) by zero valent iron (ZVI) from low activity waste (LAW) off-gas condensate simulant as a secondary treatment after recovery from vitrification planned at the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Due to its high volatility, only a fraction of Tc{sup (VII)} will be incorporated into glass waste forms. Volatilized Tc will be captured by an off-gas treatment system with current plans to recycle off-gas condensate back to the vitrification facility. The scheme with off-gas recycling will increase Tc loading in the glass waste, but will also increase the concentrations of sulfate, halides, and other problematic constituents impeding overall LAW processing and increasing volume of the glass product. This study focuses on Tc{sup (VII)} removal by ZVI as a feasible pathway to minimize off-gas condensate recycling, which may result in a reduction in the volumes of LAW waste to be immobilized and subsequent cost savings. ZVI is an established treatment agent for redox-active contaminants such as trichloroethylene, nitrate, arsenic, chromium, phenol, and others. It is a commercially available and cost-effective material. Our previous experiments showed that ZVI is very efficient for the reductive removal of {sup 99}Tc. In this work we studied ZVI oxidation under aerobic conditions at pH 7 with 0.1 M Na{sub 2}SO{sub 4} solution (ionic strength, IS, 0.3 M) in the presence and absence of {sup 99}Tc. The concentration of {sup 99}Tc and the changes in pH, dissolved oxygen (DO), and oxidation-reduction potential (ORP) of the simulated solutions were monitored over 8 days. The formation of iron oxide phases was probed by X-ray diffraction (XRD). Obtained results suggest that ZVI contact time with {sup 99}Tc containing solutions for 6 hours resulted in nearly complete removal of {sup 99}Tc from the aqueous phase. XRD analysis showed that the oxidation of ZVI is rapid with formation of magnetite (Fe{sub 3}O{sub 4}) with minor percentage of goethite and maghemite. This work is a part of a larger set of studies investigating the feasibility of {sup 99}Tc reductive removal from the LAW off-gas condensate. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Autonomous Navigation and Control of UGVs' in Nuclear Power Plants - 20381

The purpose of the husky A200 ground robot is to autonomously navigate through the places where it is very hazardous for human beings to reach and operate, like nuclear power plants, chemical industries. The aim is to navigate the ground robot autonomously with an Arm mounted on the robot along with the different sensors as camera, and Lidar. The autonomous motion of the robot is controlled by the controller which uses path planner for trajectory generation of the robot. The mission planner uses the current position of the husky A200, given the way points of the initial and the destination it would extract a best possible route based on the current events provided using GMapping. The global reference frame is used for planning the way points. Creating the appropriate path and the actions required to follow the path are given by the motion planner. The motion planner depends on the active sensor data such as obstacles, lanes, based on the sensor data feasible path is generated. Feasibility of the path is determined by the dynamics of the husky and a series of points generated with certain velocity and acceleration profile. The controller adjusts the lateral, longitudinal and yaw motion of the husky to command the behaviors. The kinematic model is developed for kinematic motion of the husky and the dynamic model is developed for transient and steady state characteristics. The images and other type of data captured by the camera are processed through the computational framework used to build machine learning models. TensorFlow will be used for deep learning and to identify and classify different objects around the husky. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Evaluation of Material Balance Approaches for Hanford Direct-Feed Low Activity Waste Processing - 20022

The Hanford Site has accumulated millions of gallons of tank waste from reprocessing spent fuel to recover plutonium, uranium, cesium, and strontium. The supernatant from the accumulated tank waste will be treated using a Direct Feed Low-Activity Waste approach. The supernatant will be treated to remove solids and cesium in the Tank-Side Cesium Removal process in the Hanford tank farm, then vitrified in a semi-batch process in the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP). Currently, each batch of feed is sampled at three locations prior to being fed to the melter: the feed qualification tank in the Hanford tank farm as well as the concentrate receipt vessel (CRV) and melter feed preparation vessel (MFPV) in the WTP. The feed qualification sample is taken from a large batch of accumulated feed, only two to three samples are expected each year. Approximately 275 samples from the CRVs and 1100 samples from the MFPV are expected each year. An evaluation was performed to determine if a material balance based on the feed qualification sample could replace most of the sampling in the CRVs and MFPVs. The evaluation consisted of three elements: (1) determination of the practicality of using a material balance to estimate the stream composition of the CRV and MFPV contents, (2) evaluation of whether the material balance could be automated using the existing process control system, and (3) determination of the uncertainty in glass composition using the material balance approach. It is assumed that periodic sampling at the CRV and MFPV would be performed periodically to re-baseline the material balance, evaluations are in progress to determine the frequency of this periodic sampling. Process sample locations downstream of the melter were reviewed as well, but the partitioning of semi-volatile species in the melter was determined to preclude extending the material balance approach past the melter. It was determined that replacement of the CRV sample location was feasible and did not increase process uncertainty or significantly impact waste loading. Replacement of the MFPV sample was also determined to be feasible, but that measurement of the glass former chemical addition may be needed prior to addition of these chemicals to the MFPV. This measurement could be performed by an in situ laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) system. Limited tests were performed to evaluate LIBS for direct measurements of the low-activity waste melter feed. The use of a material balance would eliminate over 1200 samples each year if only 10% of the CRV and MFPV batches are sampled and could likely allow the WTP laboratory to operate on days only versus 24/7 operation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Implementation of the Glycolate Destruction Process with Sodium Permanganate in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) - 20141

The Savannah River Site (SRS) seeks to replace formic acid with glycolic acid as a chemical reductant in the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF), where borosilicate glass is mixed with high-level radioactive waste, melted at high temperatures, then poured into stainless steel canisters for safe storage. Prior research and development have demonstrated the feasibility and advantages of the new nitric-glycolic acid flowsheet over the current nitric-formic acid flowsheet to chemically adjust the radioactive sludge slurry waste in the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) prior to vitrification. Use of glycolic acid reduces hydrogen and ammonia generation during the reduction process, thus reducing flammability hazards and purge requirements in the DWPF processing vessels. In addition, glycolic acid will support the new Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF) by allowing for receipt of higher volumes of waste due to reduction of flammable gases, increased boil-up rates in the vessels, and easing the processing of future sludge batches containing high levels of mercury. However, during DWPF operations, trace amounts of glycolate are anticipated to be entrained in the recycle stream and sent to the Concentration, Storage, and Transfer Facilities (CSTF) via the Recycle Collection Tank (RCT). The RCT receives condensate from the Slurry Mix Evaporator Condensate Tank (SMECT) and Off-gas Condensate Tank (OGCT) that may contain unreacted glycolate. A literature review found the potential for hydrogen generation due to thermolysis of glycolate in caustic CSTF conditions. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) conducted several tests on simulant and radioactive waste from various tanks at SRS and confirmed that glycolate added to waste at concentrations of approximately 1000 mg/L and higher generates hydrogen through thermolysis. There are potential operating scenarios in the future where glycolate concentration could exceed 1000 mg/L in the 2H Evaporator Drop Tank, the highest accumulation point for DWPF organics received via recycle. These findings presented a need to develop another process to mitigate the impact of glycolic acid to the CSTF. Several DWPF compatible options were evaluated for their ability to destroy glycolate in the DWPF recycle stream under various processing conditions, thereby mitigating its introduction to the CSTF. Downselection testing identified sodium permanganate as the most promising and simplest option to oxidize glycolate. It has been demonstrated to be effective in various RCT simulant compositions, operating temperatures, oxidant addition rates, solution pH, and initial glycolate concentrations. A feasibility study identified existing tanks within the facility that could be used for receiving and storing the commercially available sodium permanganate, as well as feeding it to the RCT for processing. The use of existing equipment as well as the ability to purchase the pre-mixed chemical reduces implementation and operational complexity. The downstream impacts of the sodium permanganate reaction were also evaluated and demonstrated to have minimal impact on other chemical species present in the RCT and CSTF, as well as on the materials of construction of the RCT and CSTF vessels and associated piping and instrumentation. Future work is in progress to validate the glycolate destruction process with testing in actual radioactive RCT waste before implementation in DWPF. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Optimization of the Post-Operational Phase on Two Belgian Multi-Unit Nuclear Power Plants: the Case of the Non-Fissile Irradiated Core Items - 20156

The current legal framework in Belgium foresees the progressive phase out of nuclear power between October 2022 (Doel 3) and December 2025 (Doel 2). Upon its definitive shutdown, each unit of the Tihange and Doel sites will enter a Post-Operational Phase (POP) and be prepared for its Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D). Prior to obtaining the D and D license, the Operator Electrabel is legally required to remove any non-fissile irradiated core items stored in the deactivation pools. The non-fissile irradiated core items consist essentially of control rods, poison rods and source thimbles as well as thimble plugs and foreign materials irradiated during operation: - Their significant content in highly radiant radionuclides (up to 6 TBq of Co-60 per kg of irradiated material) renders all existing operational waste management processes inadequate due to insufficient biological shielding; - Their high concentrations in long-lived radionuclides call for their disposal in a geological repository for which no final design nor waste acceptance criteria are expected prior to 2050. Uncertainties in the Belgian energy supply and security, however, require the Operator to be prepared for a partial nuclear phase out, where one or more units would benefit from lifetime extension while the remaining units would undergo decommissioning. The present paper aims at presenting how Electrabel, in partnership with Tractebel, addressed this challenge by maximizing the use of synergies within the respective sites as well as between both sites themselves, all the while accounting for site specificities. The most recent results and state of progress of the project will be detailed and the first lessons learned will be shared. The project has been split in multiple tasks and phased as follows: - An inventory phase aimed at mapping the contents, origin, composition and history of the non-fissile irradiated core items; - A pre-characterization phase based on neutron activation models; - A waste sorting phase aimed at separating waste forms for which an evacuation route exists from those for which such route does not exist; - A feasibility phase aimed at exploring all possible scenarios for the management of non-fissile irradiated core items and identifying the optimal feasible solution for each site; - A preparation phase (currently ongoing), developing further the optimal solution and ensuring that back-up solutions are available for any foreseeable change of context (licensing issue, modification in the nuclear phase-out program, etc.) and initiating early contacts with potential subcontractors for segmentation works and cask manufacturers, as well as the Belgian regulatory body and waste management agency. This phase also foresees the investigation of destructive and non-destructive radiological measurements to support the detailed characterization of the waste forms; - A realization phase (future work). (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Analysis of Using a Hybrid ZIRCEX Process to Generate High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) - 20158

Idaho National Lab (INL) is investigating the feasibility of providing High-Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) by recovering Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) from spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and downblending the HEU with natural, low-enriched, or depleted uranium (NU, LEU, or DU). That investigation identified that significant quantities of HALEU could be produced with a Hybrid ZIRCEX process to further advanced reactor research while reducing INL's environmental liability. Many new advanced reactor designs are being developed with improved safety, efficiency, and economics. Most require nuclear fuel with U-235 enrichment between 5% and 20%, which is defined as HALEU. Although technically feasible, there is no current domestic capability to make HALEU in the US. While it is anticipated that industry will provide HALEU through commercial enrichment once advanced reactors mature, until a market is established, an interim source of HALEU is needed to enable research and demonstration. An interim source of HALEU could be provided by recovering the HEU in some DOE-managed SNF and downblending it to between 5% and 20% using the Hybrid ZIRCEX Process. ZIRCEX is a dry head-end process to remove cladding (zirconium or aluminum) from SNF. Drying of the SNF is needed prior to introduction to ZIRCEX. After cladding removal, uranium and fission products in the bed material are oxidized and elutriated. In a Hybrid ZIRCEX process, the HEU process stream is sent to a very compact, modular solvent extraction process for uranium purification. The uranyl nitrate from solvent extraction is denitrated and calcined to produce a HALEU product ready for fuel fabrication. The long-lived fission products from solvent extraction are immobilized in glass using a small in-can melt. By removing the cladding before dissolution, the volume of glass waste is reduced by a factor of up to 300 times (when compared to not removing the cladding from the fuel). Other radioactive wastes from the process could be disposed of as Class A or Class B low-level waste. In addition to producing HALEU for advanced reactors, consumption of SNF would reduce DoE's environmental liability. Incorporating low-enriched spent fuel (versus exclusive use of LEU, DU, or NU) into the downblending scheme could reduce the SNF inventory even further. Several downblending and enrichment scenarios using INL fuels were investigated in this study. The results of this analysis show that the Hybrid ZIRCEX process could make a significant contribution to needed HALEU feedstock and reduce the environmental liability of managing SNF at INL. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Update on the Status of Deep Borehole Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste in Germany - 20285

The phase-out of nuclear energy in Germany will take place in 2022. A site for final disposal of high level radioactive waste (HLRW) has not yet been found, but a site selection process was restarted by Act on the Search for and Selection of a Site for a Disposal Facility for High-Level Radioactive Waste (Site Selection Act - StandAG 2017). This act was based on a recommendation by a commission which also advised to follow up the development of deep borehole disposal (DBD) as an alternative option for final disposal of HLRW. This paper summarizes briefly the status of DBD in Germany and if this option should be pursued in Germany. Although there are some merits of DBD, it can only be a real option if research and development is supported. The technical equipment for boreholes of the required size will only be developed if there is funding and a feasibility test. Furthermore, any concept of DBD and technology must be detailed further, and some requirements of the act must be reconsidered. The paper concludes that despite the possible merits of DBD, the political and financial support for R and D will only be provided for the time being if DBD is pushed by interested parties. Alternatively, if the site selection procedure is not progressing well, then the alternative option of DBD may find greater interest in the future. However, its availability will be severely limited due to the missing development of detailed concepts and its demonstration of feasibility. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Biofuels as Heavy Fuel Oil Substitutes in the Maritime Sector: Findings and Potential Pathways

The United States Department of Energy has commissioned four national laboratories to evaluate the feasibility of biofuels in the maritime sector. This effort is briefly described including the overall project goals, structure and aims. The large two-stroke crosshead engines used to power large merchant vessels were of particular interest since they can burn lower combustion quality fuels relative to four-stroke engines. This characteristic allows for consideration of pyrolysis oils and hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) oils which are feedstock agnostic and, in the raw state, are more economical compared to distillate drop-in fuels. Pyrolysis and HTL oils are collectively known as bio-intermediates since they require additional processing for use in distillate fuel systems. The key limiting feature is that these bio-intermediate fuels will cause asphaltene precipitation when blended with heavy fuel oils (HFOs) such as very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) unless they are upgraded to remove water and oxygenates. Economics are the key driver at this point in time, and preliminary techno-economic analyses (TEAs) indicate that bio-intermediates have potentially lower cost relative to other biofuels such as biodiesel and renewable diesel. Additionally, life cycle analyses (LCAs) of feedstocks and pathways show the life cycle carbon reduction benefit relative to heavy fuel oils. In addition to TEA and LCA results, we also present on the technical feasibility of these fuels. These studies have focused on the properties of biofuel blends with VLSFO that are critical to the fuel systems of maritime vessels fueled with HFOs. These properties include the compatibility with fuel system metals, viscosity, and blend stability. Aging studies with blends of VLSFO with biodiesel, HTL, and pyrolysis oils are also presented. Future efforts being planned to conduct additional biofuel testing, including the use of biofuels as pilot fuels in zero carbon shipping options fueled with ammonia and methanol, ship-based demonstrations, and bioresource competition studies.

Kass, Michael↗

UNCERTAINTIES FOR IN-REACTOR TESTING OF TRITIUM LOADED GETTERS WITH TEMPERATURE CONTROL

The fourth experiment in TPBAR Materials Irradiation Separate-Effects Test (TMIST) series (TMIST-4) is planned to experimentally determine the effect of neutron irradiation on the equilibrium vapor pressure of tritium over a tritium loaded Nickel-Plated Zirconium (NPZ) getter in a simulated TPBAR service environment. This pressure will be used to estimate the tritium permeation rate. In the thermal design in the TMIST-4, two evaluations are required. 1) The cladding temperature is calculated to estimate the feasibility of detecting potential irradiation enhancement of the partial pressure for an NPZ getter. This work is required to obtain a precise cladding temperature for measurement of a low tritium partial pressure. This work has been completed and indicated that the required/target cladding temperatures based on the TMIST-4 test plan can be satisfied under the test condition range by modifying the capsule component shapes and inserting a thermally conductive metal sleeve. 2) The evaluation of uncertainties associated with the test design and operation is performed. This includes fabrication tolerances, and power and nuclear operating conditions. These factors will impact the component temperatures inside capsules and resulting the tritium partial pressure. The tritium permeation rate is a function of temperature and tritium partial pressure. The prediction of tritium permeation rates affects the feasibility of obtaining measurement resolutions required to reach reasonable conclusion for potential irradiation enhanced performance. This work will investigate the uncertainties.

TTP, TPBAR, TMIST-4, TPBAR Materials Irradiation S↗

Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop: Preprint

Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via technoeconomic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). The ATB data are inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL’s reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the US generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on technoeconomic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next generation technologies such as closed loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.

Annual Technology Baseline↗

Innovative Joining Method for Hybrid Composites with Tailored Performance

In various industries, such as renewables and aerospace, the demand for carbon fiber is rapidly growing to meet the requirements of high-performance applications with optimized designs. Traditionally, these optimized designs have been limited to single-material composites due to process constraints. However, this study aims to explore the feasibility of transitioning between two different fiber types for pultrusion and filament winding processes, thereby enhancing design flexibility, and optimizing performance. This research introduces a novel method of hybrid reinforcement through splicing techniques. By employing a splicing method, fibers are merged prior to infusion, resulting in a transition of higher strength compared to traditional joints. Moreover, this technique enables the creation of composites with variable compositions, allowing for the selective placement of properties in a process previously characterized by static properties. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the mechanical properties of dry fiber splicing and its impact on the resulting composite material. Through comprehensive analysis, we aim to provide insights into the feasibility and advantages of employing this innovative splicing technique in composite manufacturing processes.

Guzorek, Steven↗

Enhancing Fluid Flow Pressure and Saturation Prediction Accuracy and Reducing Uncertainty with Committee Machine – Illinois Basin Decatur Project (IBDP) as a Case Study

This is the conference paper accompanying an oral presentation at the 17th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies GHGT-17 held in Calgary, Canada, October 20-24, 2024. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a way to play a critical role in the global transition to a low-emission economy. Current progress is hampered by a number of factors, among which the lack of risk-informed design tools and decision support frameworks is seen as a major roadblock. Significant interest exists in using artificial intelligence to accelerate CCS site feasibility studies, as well as to facilitate the permit application process. Existing works commonly train a single deep learning model. This work investigates the feasibility of using a conventional ensemble learning (committee machine) technique to further improve prediction accuracy. Ensemble-based algorithms generally improve over individual base learners in terms of robustness and accuracy. Deep ensembles, however, are time-consuming to create and train. A pragmatic question is whether small-sized ensembles may lead to prediction improvement. Here we evaluated the efficacy of an ensemble learning technique using the latent spectral model (LSM), an efficient deep neural operator algorithm, as base learners. Preliminary results, obtained using the Illinois Basin-Decatur Project (IBDP) carbon sequestration data/model, show that small-sized ensembles can improve prediction over the base learners, achieving prediction accuracy of ~1.6 psi root mean square error (RMSE) on pressure (relative the average reservoir pressure of 3150 psi), and less than 1.3% for saturation.

Sun, Alexander↗

Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop

Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via techno-economic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for NREL's Annual Technology Baseline (ATB), which provides inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL's reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the U.S. generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on techno-economic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next-generation technologies such as closed-loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.

annual technology baseline↗

Shallow Geothermal Resources for Cooling Applications at the University of Hawai‘i

Scientists at Berkeley Lab have teamed up with The University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology for building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai’i. The team is assessing the data necessary to model the feasibility of deploying this technology, the actual models that will be used, and what hurdles need to be overcome to install a demonstration case. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project, and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, making it crucial to select sites with large enough values of these properties. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Both closed-loop and open-loop systems are being investigated. Another option being considered is using cool seawater as the source of chill. Currently work is progressing on two fronts. A hydrogeologic model for a closed-loop system is being developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus, where a subsurface karst system immediately downgradient of the borefield may provide efficient removal of heated groundwater. The team will also develop a technoeconomic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air conditioning system. At the state scale, geographic information system (GIS) layers of various attributes relevant for GHE are being combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i.

Doughty, C↗

Geometry-aware training of factorized layers in tensor Tucker format

Reducing parameter redundancies in neural network architectures is crucial for achieving feasible computational and memory requirements during train and inference of large networks. Given its easy implementation and flexibility, one promising approach is layer factorization, which reshapes weight tensors into a matrix format and parameterizes it as the product of two rank-r matrices. However, this family of approaches often requires an initial full-model warm-up phase, prior knowledge of a feasible rank, and it is sensitive to parameter initialization.In this work, we introduce a novel approach to train the factors of a Tucker decomposition of the weight tensors. Our training proposal proves to be optimal in locally approximating the original unfactorized dynamics and stable for the initialization. Furthermore, the rank of each mode is dynamically updated during training.We provide a theoretical analysis of the algorithm, showing convergence, approximation and local descent guarantees. The method's performance is further illustrated through a variety of experiments, showing remarkable training compression rates and comparable or even better performance than the full baseline and alternative layer factorization strategies.

Zangrando, Emanuele [Gran Sasso Science Institute ↗

Techno-Economic Simulation Results Using dGeo for EGS-Based District Heating in the Northeastern United States

This dataset presents the results of techno-economic simulations performed using the Distributed Geothermal Market Demand Model (dGeo) to evaluate the feasibility of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS)-based district heating in the Northeastern United States. Developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), dGeo is a geospatially resolved, bottom-up modeling framework designed to explore the deployment potential of geothermal distributed energy resources. The dataset, created as part of the Cornell EGS Ground-Truthing Project, provides census tract-level data that includes inputs and outputs such as thermal demand, road length, energy prices, geothermal system sizing, annual energy contributions from geothermal and natural gas peaking boilers, system capital costs (CAPEX), operation and maintenance costs (OPEX), and the levelized cost of heat (LCOH). Key simulation parameters include geothermal gradients, measured well depths, production temperatures, and district heating piping lengths based on S1400 neighborhood road lengths. The simulations assume a target bottom hole temperature of 80C and the development of new district heating networks in each census tract.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗