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DOE OSTI2024

FORCE Update 2024

The Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite is the U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Program flagship tool suite for technoeconomic IES analysis of IES. This tool suite is useful for analysis designed to evaluate and improve the technoeconomics of energy production systems, particularly for systems including nuclear technology. In this report, we document the development activity for the FORCE tool suite to extend its capabilities as performed during fiscal year 2024. In addition to reliability and accessibility, capability is one of the three standards guiding the development of the FORCE tool suite and the software codes that are its constituent parts. Extending the capabilities of the FORCE tool suite allows analysis both within the IES program as well as industry, university, and laboratory partners to perform analysis with more accuracy, insight, and impactful narrative. Four areas of capability development were the focus of activity this year: economic parameter uncertainty quantification, multiresolution analysis, components-to-optimization workflow automation, and statespace construction workflows for real-time optimal control. In economic parameter uncertainty quantification, the ability of HERON to capture risk due to scenarios (weather and energy demand uncertainty) was expanded to also include uncertainties in financial parameters such as capital cost or operation and maintenance costs. By including these sources of uncertainty, which are sometimes very large compared with scenario uncertainty, HERON is better able to capture the risk posed by investment in various IES technology. Because of this, analysts can also consider the reduction in risks that can be realized by choice of some technologies. In multiresolution analysis, development activity extended on work completed previously. In fiscal year 2023, methods for decomposing time series signals, such as demand, solar and wind availability, and price profiles, were analyzed and down-selected to those most effective at splitting signals into different resolutions. These resolutions allow considering the influence of different energy demand and supply behaviors across different time scales. For example, energy demand might be divided into seasonal, weekly, and hourly profiles. In fiscal year 2024, this preliminary work was extended and implemented within the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) risk and uncertainty analysis platform, which is used throughout the FORCE framework. This development of the “multi-resolution time series analysis” (MR-TSA) module in RAVEN allows training synthetic history generators on complex time series. These synthetic history generators can then be used in HERON for generating scenarios that represent possible market and weather scenarios that can be analyzed on different time scales. We envision completing this work in the future, implementing multiresolution dispatch optimization strategies that can make the most beneficial use of these stratified time histories. In components-to-optimization workflow development, workflows for translating user inputs of components into algorithms for algebraic optimization were selected and implemented. Similar algorithms within the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) were separated from the main code base of HERON and gathered with the components-to-optimization workflows in the new Dispatch Optimization Variable Engine (DOVE) software library. This modularization allows FORCE users to analyze dispatch optimization and energy system duty cycles independently of HERON, which previously was a burdensome task. Additionally, these dispatch optimization algorithms, set up in an independent library, can now be used across all software applications within FORCE, especially including the real-time optimal control software Optimization of Real-time Capacity Allocation (ORCA). Allowing FORCE software to share dispatch optimization algorithms within a single library allows for improved software maintenance and reliability. In statespace characterization workflow development, alternative workflows for optimizing dispatch with additional technical accuracy was the focus, particularly to improve the real-time optimization decision making in ORCA. Using algorithms and workflows initially developed for the Feasible Actuator Range Modifier (FARM), workflows for determining the statespace representation of IES were identified and demonstrated. The resulting dispatch optimization required a more robust optimization algorithm than that originally used in HERON (and moved to DOVE), which required adding an alternate workflow to DOVE that can more accurately match the behavior of physical systems using a partial differential equation representation. In conclusion, capability developments in the FORCE tool suite in fiscal year 2024 have improved the ability of the FORCE tool suite to perform

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Neutrino-Nucleus Cross Sections

Neutrino-nucleus scattering cross sections are critical theoretical inputs for long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiments. However, robust modeling of these cross sections remains challenging. For a simple but physically motivated toy model of the DUNE experiment, we demonstrate that an accurate neural-network model of the cross section—leveraging only Standard-Model symmetries— can be learned from near-detector data. We perform a neutrino oscillation analysis with simulated far-detector events, finding that oscillation analysis results enabled by our data-driven cross-section model approach the theoretical limit achievable with perfect prior knowledge of the cross section. We further quantify the effects of flux shape and detector resolution uncertainties as well as systematics from cross-section mismodeling. This proof-of-principle study highlights the potential of future neutrino near-detector datasets and data-driven cross-section models.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Quantification in CO2 Trapping Mechanisms: A Case Study of PUNQ-S3 Reservoir Model Using Representative Geological Realizations and Unsupervised Machine Learning

Evaluating uncertainty in CO2 injection projections often requires numerous high-resolution geological realizations (GRs) which, although effective, are computationally demanding. This study proposes the use of representative geological realizations (RGRs) as an efficient approach to capture the uncertainty range of the full set while reducing computational costs. A predetermined number of RGRs is selected using an integrated unsupervised machine learning (UML) framework, which includes Euclidean distance measurement, multidimensional scaling (MDS), and a deterministic K-means (DK-means) clustering algorithm. In the context of the intricate 3D aquifer CO2 storage model, PUNQ-S3, these algorithms are utilized. The UML methodology selects five RGRs from a pool of 25 possibilities (20% of the total), taking into account the reservoir quality index (RQI) as a static parameter of the reservoir. To determine the credibility of these RGRs, their simulation results are scrutinized through the application of the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test, which analyzes the distribution of the output. In this assessment, 40 CO2 injection wells cover the entire reservoir alongside the full set. The end-point simulation results indicate that the CO2 structural, residual, and solubility trapping within the RGRs and full set follow the same distribution. Simulating five RGRs alongside the full set of 25 GRs over 200 years, involving 10 years of CO2 injection, reveals consistently similar trapping distribution patterns, with an average value of Dmax of 0.21 remaining lower than Dcritical (0.66). Using this methodology, computational expenses related to scenario testing and development planning for CO2 storage reservoirs in the presence of geological uncertainties can be substantially reduced.

Mahjour, Seyed Kourosh↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of Extreme Wave Conditions for Wave Energy Converter Design and Project Risk Assessment

Best practices and international standards for determining n-year return period extreme wave (sea states) conditions allow wave energy converter designers and project developers the option to apply simple univariate or more complex bivariate extreme value analysis methods. The present study compares extreme sea state estimates derived from univariate and bivariate methods and investigates the performance of spectral wave models for predicting extreme sea states at buoy locations within several regional wave climates along the US East and West Coasts. Two common third-generation spectral wave models are evaluated, a WAVEWATCH III® model with a grid resolution of 4 arc-minutes (6–7 km), and a Simulating WAves Nearshore model, with a coastal resolution of 200–300 m. Both models are used to generate multi-year hindcasts, from which extreme sea state statistics used for wave conditions characterization can be derived and compared to those based on in-situ observations at National Data Buoy Center stations. Comparison of results using different univariate and bivariate methods from the same data source indicates reasonable agreement on average. Discrepancies are predominantly random. Large discrepancies are common and increase with return period. There is a systematic underbias for extreme significant wave heights derived from model hindcasts compared to those derived from buoy measurements. This underbias is dependent on model spatial resolution. However, simple linear corrections can effectively compensate for this bias. A similar approach is not possible for correcting model-derived environmental contours, but other methods, e.g., machine learning, should be explored.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRS1968

Proton radiography.

Proton radiography using energetic protons from accelerator producing high contrast and poor spatial resolution radiographs, discussing photographic film characteristics effects

Koehler, A. M.↗
NASA NTRS1972

Single photon detection and timing in the Lunar Laser Ranging Experiment.

The goals of the Lunar Laser Ranging Experiment lead to the need for the measurement of a 2.5 sec time interval to an accuracy of a nanosecond or better. The systems analysis which included practical retroreflector arrays, available laser systems, and large telescopes led to the necessity of single photon detection. Operation under all background illumination conditions required auxiliary range gates and extremely narrow spectral and spatial filters in addition to the effective gate provided by the time resolution. Nanosecond timing precision at relatively high detection efficiency was obtained using the RCA C31000F photomultiplier and Ortec 270 constant fraction of pulse-height timing discriminator. The timing accuracy over the 2.5 sec interval was obtained using a digital interval with analog vernier ends. Both precision and accuracy are currently checked internally using a triggerable, nanosecond light pulser. Future measurements using sub-nanosecond laser pulses will be limited by the time resolution of single photon detectors.

Poultney, S. K.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Precision laser range finder system design for Advanced Technology Laboratory applications

Preliminary system design of a pulsed precision ruby laser rangefinder system is presented which has a potential range resolution of 0.4 cm when atmospheric effects are negligible. The system being proposed for flight testing on the advanced technology laboratory (ATL) consists of a modelocked ruby laser transmitter, course and vernier rangefinder receivers, optical beacon retroreflector tracking system, and a network of ATL tracking retroreflectors. Performance calculations indicate that spacecraft to ground ranging accuracies of 1 to 2 cm are possible.

Golden, K. E.↗
NASA NTRS1977

A sensitive infrared imaging up converter and spatial coherence of atmospheric propagation

An infrared imaging technique based on the nonlinear interaction known as upconversion was used to obtain images of several astronomical objects in the 10 micrometer spectral region, and to demonstrate quantitatively the sharper images allowed for wavelengths beyond the visible region. The deleterious effects of atmospheric inhomogeneities on telescope resolution were studied in the infrared region using the technique developed. The low quantum efficiency of the device employed severely limited its usefulness as an astronomical detector.

Boyd, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Changes in "thermal lens" measure diffusivity

In an extension of "thermal lens" effect to new applications and better resolution, two laser beams combine to rapidly measure thermal diffusivity and other molecular dynamic properties. New double-beam technique handles very small samples unlike classical techniques for measuring diffusivity. It can be used for measurements on samples undergoing stress, making it applicable to data collection for structural engineering.

Gupta, A.↗
NASA NTRS1981

IUE observations of blue halo high luminosity stars

Two high luminosity population II blue stars of high galactic latitude, BD+33 deg 2642 and HD 137569 were observed at high resolution. The stellar spectra show the effect of mass loss in BD+33 deg 2642 and abnormally weak metallic lines in HD 137569. The interstellar lines in the direction of BD+33 deg 2642, which lies at a height z greater than or equal to 6.2 kpc from the galactic plane, are split into two components. No high ionization stages are found at the low velocity component; nor can they be detected in the higher velocity clouds because of mixing with the corresponding stellar/circumstellar lines.

Hack, M.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Cerenkov x total energy telescopes for the study of the mass composition of cosmic rays

The mass resolution attainable with cosmic ray telescopes employing Cerenkov counters for velocity measurement was examined. It is shown that in most cases, the limiting mass resolution is determined by the resolution of the Cerenkov counter. The resolution achieved in the UNH telescope flown on a balloon in 1977 is studied as a function of charge and energy. This telescope determines the mass using the Cerenkov x total energy technique. It is shown that the mass resolution for heavier nuclei can be accurately predicted using the response of the Cerenkov counter to sea level mu-mesons. The actual in flight resolution for heavier nuclei, including broadening effects, may be predicted using the beta = 1 Cerenkov distributions, and independently by studying the distribution function of the differences of the two banks of photomultipliers employed on each Cerenkov counter.

Webber, W. R.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Interstellar hot plasma contributions to the diffuse ultraviolet background

The intensity of the diffuse background emission in the far ultraviolet from hot coronal gas present in the plane and halo of the galaxy is calculated. The main emission lines expected are those of C III, IV, N III, IV and Si III, IV at 1909, 1549, 1749, 1487, 1207 and 1398 A respectively. Unless the gas is unusually clumped or has extremely depleted abundances, this source is not of sufficient intensity to influence current broadband measurements of the diffuse continuous ultraviolet background. However, future observations at higher sensitivity and resolution might have to take this effect into account.

Jakobsen, P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Throughput of diffraction-limited field optics systems for infrared and millimetric telescopes

Telescopes for submillimeter wavelengths have point spread functions some millimeters or centimeters in diameter, but the detectors may be only fractions of a millimeter in size. Thus a field aperture and collecting optics are needed. Optimizing the aperture by a calculation of the effects of diffraction on signal and resolution as a function of size of the collecting aperture is shown. Calculations are compared to experimental results from observations of Mars at submillimeter wavelengths.

Hildebrand, R. H.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Studies with sample conductivity, insertion rates, and particle deflection in a continuous flow electrophoresis system

The continuous flow electrophoresis system makes electrophoresis possible in a free-flowing film of aqueous electrolyte medium. The sample continuously enters the electrolyte at the top of the chamber and is subjected to the action of a lateral dc field. This divides the sample into fractions since each component has a distinctive electrophoretic mobility. Tests were made using monodisperse polystyrene latex microspheres to determine optimum sample conductivity, insertion rates and optimum electric field applications as baseline data for future STS flight experiments. Optimum sample flow rates for the selected samples were determined to be approximately 26 micro-liters/min. Experiments with samples in deionized water yielded best results and voltages in the 20 V/cm to 30 V/cm range were optimum. Deflections of formaldehyde fixed turkey and bovine erythrocytes were determined using the continuous flow electrophoresis system. The effects of particle interactions on sample resolution and migration in the chamber was also evaluated.

Williams, G., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Vegetation classification based on Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer /AVHRR/ satellite imagery

Data from the NOAA-6 spacecraft Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) were tested for effectiveness for vegetation classification. Vegetation, climatological, and meteorological data were gathered for three days over 12 locations, and the normalized differences between the AVHRR bands 1 and 2 were determined. A vegetative greenness index was compared with a hydrologic factor and vegetation characteristics as measured by ground truth. A multivariate vegetation gradient model was formulated, incorporating AVHRR and climatological data. The hydrologic factor was calculated in terms of the precipitation, evaporation, maximum and minimum temperatures, and the hydrologic capacity. The observations were taken over Texas, which has a wide range of climates. A high correlation was found in the vegetation-HF index. The AVHRR data are concluded to be an effective tool for analysis of vegetation/climate relationships.

Norwine, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Finite field of view effects on inversion of limb thermal emission observations

It is pointed out that the technique of thermal emission spectroscopy provides an effective means for remote sounding of stratospheric temperature structure and constituent distributions. One procedure for measuring the stratospheric infrared spectrum involves the conduction of observations along ray paths tangent to the stratospheric limb. Thermal emission limb tangent observations have certain advantages compared to other types of observations. The techniques for determining temperature and trace gas distributions from limb thermal emission radiances are based on the assumption that the bulk of opacity lies near the tangent point. Ideally, the field of view (FOV) of the observing instrument should be very small. The effect of a finite FOV is to reduce the spatial resolution of the retrieved temperature and constituent profiles. The present investigation is concerned with the effects of the FOV on the inversion of infrared thermal emission measurements for balloon platforms. Attention is given to a convenient method for determining the weighting functions.

Abbas, M. M.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Use of a liquid-crystal and heater-element composite for quantitative, high-resolution heat-transfer coefficients on a turbine airfoil including turbulence and surface-roughness effects

Local heat transfer coefficients were measured along the midchord of a three-times-size turbine vane airfoil in a static cascade operated at room temperature over a range of Reynolds numbers. The test surface consisted of a composite of commercially available materials: a Mylar sheet with a layer of cholestric liquid crystals, which change color with temperature, and a heater made of a polyester sheet coated with vapor-deposited gold, which produces uniform heat flux. After the initial selection and calibration of the composite sheet, accurate, quantitative, and continuous heat transfer coefficients were mapped over the airfoil surface. Tests were conducted at two free-stream turbulence intensities: 0.6 percent, which is typical of wind tunnels; and 10 percent, which is typical of real engine conditions. In addition to a smooth airfoil, the effects of local leading-edge sand roughness were also examined for a value greater than the critical roughness. The local heat transfer coefficients are presented for both free-stream turbulence intensities for inlet Reynolds numbers from 1.20 to 5.55 x 10 to the 5th power. Comparisons are also made with analytical values of heat transfer coefficients obtained from the STAN5 boundary layer code.

Hippensteele, S. A.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Calibration of a 1 meter diameter normal incidence extreme ultraviolet telescope/spectrometer

A 1-meter normal incidence telescope, with a normal incidence concave diffraction grating spectrometer at its focus, has been developed. The instrument's spectral coverage is 350 to 1150A with a spectral resolution of 5A and a peak effective area of 6 sq cm at 500A. The instrument was launched on an Aries sounding rocket on November 27, 1983 in an effort to determine the hydrogen and helium abundance in the local interstellar medium. A description of this instrument, with the primary emphasis on the methods used to calibrate it, is presented.

Jelinsky, Patrick↗