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At least 829 records · Page 46

Simulating a Mesoscale Convective System Using WRF with a New Spectral Bin Microphysics: Part 1: Hail vs Graupel

A modified Fast Spectral Bin Microphysics scheme (FSBM-2) embedded into the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) is used to simulate a mesoscale deep convective system observed during the Midlatitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E). FSBM-2 uses modified source codes as compared to the current FSBM (FSBM-1). In contrast to FSBM-1, FSBM-2 can simulate hail of several cm in diameter and includes additional processes such as spontaneous breakup of raindrops and aerosol regeneration by drop evaporation. It is shown that allowing large hail particles of diameters exceeding about 1 cm substantially increases the agreement between the simulated and observed squall-line structures both in the convective and stratiform regions. In contrast, if graupel particles are used to represent high-density hydrometeors in convective areas, the ratio of convective-to-stratiform areas diverges from the ratio seen in observations and maximum radar reflectivities are substantially underestimated. Analysis of snow size distributions in the stratiform area shows an important link between the ice crystals formed by homogeneous freezing in the convective area to ice particle number concentration in the stratiform region. Simulated raindrop size distributions in the stratiform area below the melting level from FSBM-2 show a good agreement with observations. The regeneration of CCN by droplet evaporation and detrainment of these CCN to the stratiform region increases the concentration of CCN there up to 8-9 km altitude; the additional CCN penetrate clouds and produce new droplets, leading to some convection intensification. Key words: Mesoscale convective systems (MCS), squall lines, spectral bin microphysics, large hail, in-cloud nucleation, size distributions of hydrometeors in MCS.

Shpund, Kobby↗

Emerging Energy Market Analysis Initiative, Methodological Framework

Planning and operations of the electric power sector are undergoing radical changes. Climate change mitigation efforts have forced rapid changes to the technology mix. Technologies like wind and solar have experienced rapid growth, while investment in fossil sources has peaked or is declining. These foundational changes are forcing changes to energy systems. Demand-side adoption of electrified technologies, including electric vehicles, is changing load profiles and opening up new avenues for consumer participation in the power systems. The implications of an evolving power system pertain to more than environmental and technical dimensions. Changes to the generation mix and its consequent upstream and downstream impacts such as fuel production have significant and highly concentrated consequences on economies and employment. Shifts towards distributed (or decentralized) generating assets offer the potential to reshape economic and employment opportunities associated with the energy sector across space and socioeconomic groups. The Emerging Energy Market Analysis (EMA) initiative aims to identify sustainable, regionally acceptable, and high-value energy solutions that are secure and equitable. Unlike short-term, least-cost choices that can narrowly account for traditional options, EMA’s focus on emerging energy markets recognizes that new or adapted practices and technologies can alter the frontier of solutions and advance a community’s social, economic, and natural pathways. Such change requires a more comprehensive analysis of societal input, resources, capabilities, and infrastructure. These considerations lay the foundation for community decision-making models that are responsive to community values as well as the history and drivers. The result is a community-based decision and engagement model that will be valuable to decisionmakers and developers of advanced and emerging energy solutions, seeking a social license to operate prior to project development.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Distributed clean energy opportunities for US oil refinery operations

The oil and gas industry is increasingly seeking operational improvements to reduce costs and emissions while improving resilience. This study describes techno-economic analysis of opportunities for distributed energy resources that could be integrated to support oil and gas companies’ economic, environmental, and energy resiliency goals. Specifically, the analysis evaluates solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery energy storage, landfill gas, biomass, municipal solid waste-to-energy, solar steam for process heat, combined heat and power, and electrolyzers for hydrogen production at two hypothetical refineries, one located in Louisiana and the other in southern California. These technologies could reduce the sites’ consumption of grid electricity and/or natural gas and thus can help reduce emissions. This study employs the ReOPT tool and System Advisor Model to evaluate the techno-economic potential for clean energy technologies to support refineries in achieving energy goals, including energy cost savings, resiliency, and emissions reductions. Results indicate that the associated costs of emissions reductions via several distributed clean energy technologies are competitive with other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, reducing flaring, direct carbon capture and sequestration, and markets under certain conditions. There are also cost beneficial opportunities for the use of renewable energy for refining, especially for resilience, depending on local conditions such as resources and utility costs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Impact of Behind-the-Meter Heterogeneous Distributed Energy Resources on Distribution Grids

The increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) on the electric grid brings new challenges and opportunities for utility grid operations. With the rapid deployment of DERs, there is emerging interest in integrating these controllable devices with utility operations at all levels for monitoring and management. To understand the challenges with increasing behind-the-meter (BTM) DERs and to identify the needs in deploying advanced controls, a comprehensive grid impact study is indispensable. This paper presents the analysis which help visualize the DER impact on the grid, identify the challenges and provides an insight into the new distribution management and control needs to enable reliable and resilient grid operations.

behind-the-meter↗

Thermal Stability and Ion Irradiation Response of Refined Grained V – 4Cr – 4Ti

Since the 1960’s, there has been interest in V-4Cr-4Ti and similar alloys as candidates for low activation structural materials for advanced nuclear reactors. V-4Cr-4Ti was produced using arc melting and subsequently subjected to large strain extrusion machining to produce a multimodal microstructure largely composed of nanocrystalline and ultrafine grain sizes. In-situ thermal stability of the multimodal V-4Cr-4Ti to 800 °C shows the formation of vanadium carbides with negligible grain growth. In-situ dual-beam 16 KeV He+ and 1 MeV Kr2+ ion irradiation performed at 700 °C to a final dose of ~5 displacements per atom show the formation of small He cavities well distributed throughout the system, with preferential clustering at grain boundaries. This work provides insight into how the increased fraction of grain boundaries affect the simultaneous dual beam ion irradiation response of multimodal V – 4 wt.% Cr – 4 wt.% Ti at elevated temperatures. Analysis of the cavities reveal an areal density of 0.024±0.007 cavities/nm2 and swelling of 0.236% after the dual-beam ion irradiation. Nanoindentation shows a ~50% increase in hardening after the ion irradiation at 700 °C.

TEM↗

Enabling machine learning-ready HPC ensembles with Merlin

With the growing complexity of computational and experimental facilities, many scientific researchers are turning to machine learning (ML) techniques to analyze large scale ensemble data. With complexities such as multi-component workflows, heterogeneous machine architectures, parallel file systems, and batch scheduling, care must be taken to facilitate this analysis in a high performance computing (HPC) environment. Here, we present Merlin, a workflow framework to enable large ML-friendly ensembles of scientific HPC simulations. By augmenting traditional HPC with distributed compute technologies, Merlin aims to lower the barrier for scientific subject matter experts to incorporate ML into their analysis. As a producer–consumer workflow model, Merlin enables multi-machine, cross-batch job, dynamically allocated yet persistent workflows capable of utilizing surge-compute resources. Key features of Merlin are a flexible HPC-centric interface, low per-task overhead, multi-tiered fault recovery, and a hierarchical sampling algorithm that allows for $\mathscr{O}$(N) task execution and $\mathscr{O}$(N ln N) task queuing to ensembles of millions of tasks. In addition to Merlin’s design, we test the algorithm’s performance in an HPC center and demonstrate the ability to enqueue 40 million simulations in 100 s, with a 30 millisecond per-task overhead that is independent of ensemble size. Finally, we describe some example applications that Merlin has enabled on leadership-class HPC resources, such as the ML-augmented optimization of nuclear fusion experiments and the calibration of infectious disease models to study the progression of and possible mitigation strategies for COVID-19.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Vertical Gradient of Size-Resolved Aerosol Compositions over the Arctic Reveals Cloud Processed Aerosol in-Cloud and above Cloud

Arctic aerosols play a significant role in the aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions, but ground-based measurements are insufficient to explain the interaction of aerosols and clouds in a vertically stratified Arctic atmosphere. This study shows the vertical variability of aerosol particle composition via tethered balloon system at Oliktok Point, Alaska, in August 2019, at different cloud layers for two case studies (background aerosol condition and polluted condition). Multi-modal micro-spectroscopy analysis of samples during the background case reveals a broadening of chemically specific size distribution above cloud top with a high abundance of sulfate and core-shell morphology, suggesting possible cloud processing of aerosols. The pollution case also indicates a broadening of size distribution at the upper cloud layer with the dominance of carbonaceous aerosol, which suggests the potential of carbonaceous aerosols for Arctic cloud formation. Here this study provides insights into the vertical profile of Arctic aerosols on cloud formation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Robustness of slow contraction to cosmic initial conditions

We present numerical relativity simulations of cosmological scenarios in which the universe is smoothed and flattened by undergoing a phase of slow contraction and test their sensitivity to a wide range of initial conditions. Our numerical scheme enables the variation of all freely specifiable physical quantities that characterize the initial spatial hypersurface, such as the initial shear and spatial curvature contributions as well as the initial field and velocity distributions of the scalar that drives the cosmological evolution. In particular, we include initial conditions that are far outside the perturbative regime of the well-known attractor scaling solution. We complement our numerical results by analytically performing a complete dynamical systems analysis and show that the two approaches yield consistent results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

H2Integrate [SWR-23-31]

H2Integrate(H2I) is an open-source Python package for hybrid systems engineering design and technoeconomic analysis. It models and optimizes hybrid energy plants that produce electricity, hydrogen, ammonia, steel, and other products. H2Integrate is designed to be flexible and extensible, allowing users to create their own components and models for various energy systems. The tool currently includes distributed energy generation (wind, solar, wave, tidal), battery storage, hydrogen, ammonia, methanol, and steel technologies. Other elements such as desalination systems, pipelines, compressors, and storage systems can also be included as developed by users. Some modeling capabilities in H2Integrate are provided by integrating existing tools, such as HOPP, PySAM, ORBIT, and ProFAST. The H2Integrate tool is built on top of NASA's OpenMDAO framework, which provides a powerful and flexible environment for modeling and optimization.

King, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laborato↗

Modeling of the TRIGA IPR-R1 research reactor with the Serpent2/RINNOVO Nodal core analysis package

The Serpent2/RINNOVO nodal core analysis code system, a dedicated tool for modeling research reactors, has the capability to accurately predict important core physics parameters involved in the safety of reactor operation, such as various reactivity coefficients, control rod and bank worths including the shutdown margin, power distributions as well as local neutron flux predictions at various core locations of high importance, e.g., at irradiation rigs. In this work, a hexagonal model of the unrodded initial core of the Brazilian IPR-R1 Mark I type TRIGA nuclear reactor has been created using the Serpent2/RINNOVO code system. The choice of employing a hexagonal core geometry representation has mainly been made to facilitate subsequent fuel shuffling operations and core follow calculations of this reactor. Numerical results in terms of the core eigenvalue and the assembly power distribution have then been compared against corresponding full core Serpent2 results to prove feasibility of using the Serpent2/RINNOVO code system for modeling small and highly heterogeneous TRIGA reactors. Overall, RINNOVO predicts the power distribution very accurately but the eigenvalue error still remains quite large. In light of being the very first evaluation of a TRIGA reactor with the RINNOVO nodal core simulator, these results are also considered to be very preliminary. Improved accuracy is expected by incorporating a proper methodology in the current code system for computing discontinuity factors for multi-assembly configurations. Furthermore, improved results are expected by increasing the number of energy groups used by RINNOVO in these core calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Impact of Wildfires on Solar Resource Availability in California in a Changing Climate

Wildfires can emit large amounts of atmospheric particulate matters and influence not only air quality but also availability of photovoltaic (PV) generation due to scattering and absorption of solar radiation. Under anthropogenic changing climate, wildfire activity is projected to increase over western North America due to drier and warmer climate, implying increasing impact on solar resource and larger uncertainty in solar generation especially in regions with faster PV penetration. This study focuses on quantifying the impact of wildfires on aerosol optical depth (AOD) and thus solar resource over California using National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). This assessment includes historical analysis and estimation of solar resource under wildfire scenarios (2020 wildfire and an enhanced wildfire scenario based on 2020 wildfires). Historical analysis for the period of July-October 2019/2020 (low/high fire activity period) shows that the averaged global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) are reduced by about 30 and 90 W m-2 (5.6 and 15.3%), respectively, during high fire activity period. To create AOD dataset for enhanced fire scenario, 165% increase in burn area (in around 2050) is selected based on comprehensive literature review, which is further applied to the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN) fire emission. WRF-Chem model with the enhanced FINN emissions is used to simulate and represent a preserving spatial distribution of burned areas and wildfire-emitted aerosols. Our initial analysis suggests that the"enhanced 2020 wildfire" AOD can increase by a factor of 1.3 - 2, which can significantly reduce solar irradiance and increase uncertainty in generation and reliability of power system in extreme wildfire events under a high solar penetration scenario. Overall, this study provides an estimate of the impacts of wildfires on solar resource to make informed decisions on reserve planning, generation scheduling, and reliability investments.

aerosol optical depth↗

WECC Wide-Area Oscillation Assessment and Trending Study Report

This project, Wide-area Oscillation Analysis and Trending Study, is sponsored by the Office of Electricity (OE) of the Department of Energy (DOE) who tasked Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to conduct this research. Staff of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) have been involved in the project as observers and have provided advisory comments and suggestions. The primary objective of this study is to assess whether there are significant trends in the wide-area oscillatory behavior with respect to the significant generation-mix changes brought by the increased penetration of RES in the WECC system. The work performed in this project is considered to be complimentary to previous work by NERC/industry and covers the aspects that have not been studied or trended before. The trending analysis presented in this report can serve as reference for future grid planning and operation of the WECC system. In this report, how the changes in the generation mix can impact the frequency and damping ratio (DR) of WECC wide-area oscillation modes has been studied. Thorough data-based and model-based analyses have been carried out to analyze the current trends and then extended to evaluate the oscillation behaviors of the future WECC system.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Monte Carlo Dropout Uncertainty Quantification of Long Short-Term Memory Autoencoder Anomaly Detection in a Liquid Sodium Cold Trap

Advanced high-temperature fluid reactors, such as sodium-cooled fast reactors (SFRs) and molten salt–cooled reactors (MSCRs), require coolant purification systems to prevent fluid contamination and local freezing that can lead to plugging. Liquid sodium purification can be achieved with a cold trap, where the sodium temperature is reduced to a near-freezing point to precipitate out impurities. Automation of monitoring of the cold trap performance with machine learning algorithms can aid in early detection of incipient anomalies. An efficient approach to loss-of-coolant–type anomaly detection in a cold trap monitored with more than two dozen thermal-hydraulic sensors consists of a long short-term memory (LSTM) autoencoder. This work develops the uncertainty quantification of the LSTM autoencoder performance for cold trap anomaly detection using the Monte Carlo (MC) dropout method. The MC dropout methodology creates a distribution of sister distributions that all slightly differ from each other because of random neurons being turned off for testing. The variances of the sister network distributions are used to make an uncertainty interval. Our analysis shows that the uncertainty in the autoencoder performance is largest near the peak of the anomaly signal. Using the MC dropout method, we investigate the uncertainty in the anomaly detection with missing sensor inputs. This capability allows the reactor operator to evaluate resilience of the anomaly detection system and to make informed decisions about continuity of operation in the event of sensor failure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Understanding processes that control dust spatial distributions with global climate models and satellite observations

Dust aerosol is important in modulating the climate system at local and global scales, yet its spatiotemporal distributions simulated by global climate models (GCMs) are highly uncertain. In this study, we evaluate the spatiotemporal variations of dust extinction profiles and dust optical depth (DOD) simulated by the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) and version 2 (CESM2), the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) against satellite retrievals from Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR). We find that CESM1, CESM2, and E3SMv1 underestimate dust transport to remote regions. E3SMv1 performs better than CESM1 and CESM2 in simulating dust transport and the northern hemispheric DOD due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust. CESM2 performs the worst in the Northern Hemisphere due to its lower dust emission than in the other two models but has a better dust simulation over the Southern Ocean due to the overestimation of dust emission in the Southern Hemisphere. DOD from MERRA-2 agrees well with CALIOP DOD in remote regions due to its higher mass fraction of fine dust and the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. The large disagreements in the dust extinction profiles and DOD among CALIOP, MODIS, and MISR retrievals make the model evaluation of dust spatial distributions challenging. Our study indicates the importance of representing dust emission, dry/wet deposition, and size distribution in GCMs in correctly simulating dust spatiotemporal distributions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 1: Justice as Recognition

The LA100 Equity Strategies project synthesizes community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. Grounded in the analysis of past and ongoing energy inequities and engagement with underserved communities, the project presents community-guided and community-tailored strategies that aim to operationalize recognition and procedural justice. This chapter focuses on recognition justice, identifying and analyzing past and present social, cultural, and institutional barriers to affordable and clean energy for LA communities, as well as disparities in the distribution of energy system burdens and benefits. Acknowledging historical and structural factors behind current energy inequities is a first step in developing energy equity strategies for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) to achieve distributional justice - the just and equitable distribution of energy benefits and burdens in LA's energy transition. Recognition, procedural, and distributional justice are the three tenets of energy justice around which the LA100 Equity Strategies project is organized. In the United States, theory and practice around justice have historically focused on unequal distribution of environmental benefits and burdens. The historical siting of hazardous infrastructure such as power plants and transportation corridors in communities of color and low-income communities has disproportionately concentrated negative environmental impacts in their neighborhoods. Those inequities are reproduced via programs, policies, and other efforts (e.g., zoning and regulations, rebates and incentives, lending, investment, and financing) that directly affect people's lives and livelihoods. In recent decades, energy justice scholars and activists broadened their analysis to examine how environmental inequities intersect with other forms of social difference in the distribution of energy benefits and burdens. This approach investigates how differences in class, race, gender, age, and abilities, among others, intersect to understand the social, cultural, and institutional processes that create and perpetuate energy inequities. The LA100 Equity Strategies project embraces this approach to developing a more just clean energy future for LA. Because recognizing and understanding past and existing inequities is vital to addressing them in ways that ensure an equitable energy transition for all Angelenos, this chapter focuses on identifying and analyzing the challenges and inequities of LA's past and existing energy system, including LADWP programs.

community↗

Wideband Impedance Passivation of MMCs for Suppressing Harmonic Oscillations

Harmonic instability and associated oscillation events have become one of the main concerns in MMC-based HVdc systems. These oscillations can appear in the range from a few hundred hertz to several kilohertz, and the root cause is identified as delay-induced negative damping of MMC impedance appearing at the system resonance frequency. Here, this paper introduces a wideband impedance reshaping method through MMC control to eliminate such negative damping for both grid-following (GFL) and grid-forming (GFM) MMCs, which makes the MMC impedance completely passive from the second harmonic frequency upward, thus preventing all harmonic oscillations. First, simplified impedance models of MMCs are derived for the harmonic stability analysis and the impedance reshaping control design. Next, a passivity-based impedance reshaping method is presented, as well as practical considerations for its implementation. In addition, to maintain the MMC's disturbance ride-through capability, an adaptive activation scheme is developed, which enables the wideband impedance reshaping control only in the presence of harmonic oscillation events. The effectiveness of the proposed method is validated by frequency domain analysis and by electromagnetic transient (EMT) simulations of two typical MMC-based power systems.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Helium Ion Microscopy with Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry for Nanoscale Chemical Imaging and Analysis of Polyolefins

To date, chemical imaging of polymers and polymer blends has been primarily accomplished using time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to directly visualize the distribution of components in a complex material with spatial resolution ranging from 100 nm to 5 μm. However, in many cases, this resolution falls far short of visualizing interfaces directly. To overcome these limitations, recent work has focused on developing a SIMS detection system based on a helium ion microscope (HIM) enabling chemical imaging with a demonstrated ~14 nm spatial resolution. Here, we utilize HIM-SIMS for differentiation between the olefin-based polymers of polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP). We illustrate both analyses for separating PE and PP using specific mass fragment ratios as well as demonstrate spatially resolved imaging of phase-separated domains within PE. Altogether, we demonstrate the abilities of HIM-SIMS as a multimodal chemical technique for imaging and quantification of polyolefin interfaces, which could be more broadly applied to the analysis of more complex polymeric systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Robust and optimal alignment of high-dimensional data using maximum likelihood estimation through a random sample consensus framework

Abstract Correcting spatial orientations of groups of high-dimensional data sets such that they are all in a consistent coordinate system is often a time-consuming and error-prone process. Automation of this process can be accomplished by using Generalized Procrustes Analysis to estimate the relative orientations among a population of high-dimensional data sets. A least squares Procrustes solution is applied through a maximum likelihood estimation and random sample consensus framework for robustness. The likelihood model is comprised of a mixture distribution where inliers are modeled using t -distribution and outliers from a uniform distribution. Applications will focus on a synthetic data set that emulates triaxial acceleration data and also real shock data from a population of triaxial accelerometers. Outliers represent either non-rigid body responses, environmental noise, and/or sensor and data acquisition issues. The intended application for the methodology is to robustly automate the rotation of populations of experimentally collected triaxial accelerometer data sets to a single global coordinate system.

LOSAC↗