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DOE OSTI2020

Veridical data science

Building and expanding on principles of statistics, machine learning, and scientific inquiry, we propose the predictability, computability, and stability (PCS) framework for veridical data science. Our framework, composed of both a workflow and documentation, aims to provide responsible, reliable, reproducible, and transparent results across the data science life cycle. The PCS workflow uses predictability as a reality check and considers the importance of computation in data collection/storage and algorithm design. It augments predictability and computability with an overarching stability principle. Stability expands on statistical uncertainty considerations to assess how human judgment calls impact data results through data and model/algorithm perturbations. As part of the PCS workflow, we develop PCS inference procedures, namely PCS perturbation intervals and PCS hypothesis testing, to investigate the stability of data results relative to problem formulation, data cleaning, modeling decisions, and interpretations. We illustrate PCS inference through neuroscience and genomics projects of our own and others. Moreover, we demonstrate its favorable performance over existing methods in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in high-dimensional, sparse linear model simulations, including a wide range of misspecified models. Finally, we propose PCS documentation based on R Markdown or Jupyter Notebook, with publicly available, reproducible codes and narratives to back up human choices made throughout an analysis. The PCS workflow and documentation are demonstrated in a genomics case study available on Zenodo.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Factors associated with emerging multimodal transportation behavior in the San Francisco Bay Area

Abstract This paper identifies the influence of demographic, local transportation environment, and individual preferences for transportation attributes on multimodal transportation behavior in an urban environment with emergent transportation mode availability. Multimodality is the use of more than one mode of transportation during a given timeframe. Multimodality has been considered a key component of sustainable and efficient transportation systems, as this travel behavior can represent a shift away from personal vehicle use to more sustainable transportation modes, especially in urban environments with diverse transportation systems and emergent shared transportation alternatives (e.g., carsharing, ridehailing, bike sharing). However, it is unclear what factors contribute towards people being more likely to exhibit multimodal transportation behavior in modern urban environments. We assessed commuting behavior based on a survey administered in the San Francisco Bay Area according to whether residents commuted (i) exclusively by vehicle, (ii) by a mix of vehicle and non-vehicle modes, or (iii) exclusively by non-vehicle modes. A classification tree approach identified correlations between commuting classes and demographic variables, preferences for transportation attributes, and location-based information. The characterization of commuting styles could inform regional transportation policy and design that aims to reduce vehicle use by identifying the demographic, preference, and location-based considerations correlated with each commuting style.

McAuliffe Wells, Emily↗

DOE OSTI2022

An Operational Resilience Metric to Evaluate Inertia and Inverter-based Generation on the Grid

In an effort to reduce carbon emissions and curtail the effects of climate change there has been considerable effort to increase the penetration of inverter-based renewable energy sources. The adoption of renewable generation over conventional inertia-based generation sources is forming considerable challenges for the operation and stability of the power system. The power system has been designed around generation units characterized by high inertia and primary frequency response (PFR), allowing them to respond to disturbances such as faults or generators tripping off line. In contrast, the modern inverter-based assets are characterized by no contribution to inertia and they typically provide stochastic generation at their maximum output, thus having no contribution to PFR during low-frequency disturbance events. Because of this, inertia in power systems is reducing, resulting in a faster rate of frequency change after a disturbance occurs. As more inverter-based generation units are added to the grid it is important to understand the stability of the system and the size of disturbance a system is capable of withstanding. This paper presents a resilience metric that evaluates the maximum size of disturbance a systems can withstand based on the system inertia and the primary frequency control of inverter and inertia-based generation. The results are shown visually and are based on the real-time operation of generation units and their characteristics such as latency, ramp rates, and energy constraints. It is demonstrated that the real-time positioning or bias of the generating units has an effect of the size of disturbance that a system can withstand, i.e. its resilience. It is expected that this type of analysis can help operators increase the resilience of power systems in the future.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Outlook on texture evolution in additively manufactured stainless steels: Prospects for hydrogen embrittlement resistance, overview of mechanical, and solidification behavior

Abstract Realizing application specific manufacture with fusion-based additive manufacturing (F-BAM) processes requires understanding of the physical phenomena that drive evolution of microstructural attributes, such as texture. Current approaches for understanding texture evolution in F-BAM are majorly considerate of the phenomena occurring only during solidification. This hinders the comprehensive understanding and control of texture during F-BAM. In this perspective article, we discuss several physical phenomena occurring during and after solidification that can determine texture in F-BAM processed stainless steels (SS). A crystal plasticity-coupled hydrogen adsorption-diffusion modeling framework is also leveraged to demonstrate the prospects of grain boundary engineering with F-BAM for enhanced hydrogen embrittlement resistance of SS. Implications of varying thermokinetics in F-BAM for solidification behavior of SS are discussed. Additionally, microstructural attributes that are key to high temperature mechanical performance of SS are highlighted. Considerations as outlined in this perspective article will enable grain boundary engineering and application specific microstructural design of SS with F-BAM. Graphical abstract

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computational Modeling to Advance Novel Medical Isotopes for Radiotheranostics: A DOE-NIH Joint Workshop Executive Summary

The DOE-NIH Joint Workshop on Computational Modeling to Advance Novel Medical Isotopes for Radiotheranostics, held on September 27, 2024, brought together experts from government, academia, and industry to address critical challenges in radionuclide production and clinical translation. Here, the workshop emphasized interdisciplinary collaboration, particularly between the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Institutes of Health (NIH), to strengthen the domestic isotope supply, streamline regulatory pathways, and further integrate computational tools into radiopharmaceutical therapy (RPT). Key discussions explored the role of AI-driven modeling, machine learning, and digital twin technologies in optimizing dosimetry, dynamically personalizing treatments, and reducing time to clinical adoption. Advances in predictive computational modeling were highlighted as essential for improving radionuclide yield, purity, and synthesis efficiency. Regulatory considerations and equitable access were central themes, with participants advocating for harmonized global standards, adaptive trial designs, and expanded infrastructure for clinical implementation. DOE computational and production infrastructure was emphasized. Future priorities identified include increased investment in radionuclide production infrastructure, expanded workforce development in radiopharmaceutical sciences and computational modeling, and the creation of robust public-private partnerships. The workshop concluded that continued strategic collaboration and sustained resources will be vital for advancing next-generation radiotheranostics, ensuring safe and effective therapies accessible to all patients.

digital twins↗

DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Recombiner Catalyst Evaluations for Waste Storage

Radiolysis of water in nuclear waste storage generates hydrogen gas that can accumulate within sludge style waste and be rapidly released during agitation events, creating a significant flammability hazard. Engineering controls are therefore required to limit hydrogen concentrations during both quiescent storage and transient disturbances. Catalytic recombination of hydrogen in waste storage offgas is a proven mitigation strategy, maintaining hydrogen levels below flammability limits and managing sudden concentration spikes. Conventional recombiners rely on platinum and/or palladium catalysts, with development efforts focused on extending service life, increasing active surface area, and ensuring safe deployment in radioactive environments. Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is evaluating a newly developed hydrogen recombiner catalyst from Canadian Nuclear Laboratories as a cost-effective and durable alternative for nuclear waste applications. Testing was conducted in SRNL’s Shielded Cells facility, which enables reduced-scale experimental modeling under radiation fields and near-use-case conditions relevant to radioactive waste storage. Catalyst performance was evaluated using a custom offgas characterization system designed for near-zero flow conditions. The experimental apparatus consisted of a gas-tight 2.7 L PTFE vessel equipped with temperature monitoring, gas flow controls, and a variable-speed mixer to simulate sludge agitation. Offgas composition was monitored using a dedicated gas chromatograph with argon carrier gas and a krypton internal standard. Measurements were obtained for an empty vessel, the vessel containing a well characterized radioactive tank waste sample, and the same configuration with the candidate catalyst installed. Results demonstrate that the new catalyst effectively reduced hydrogen concentrations in the offgas within the constraints of the experimental design. In addition to confirming catalytic activity, the testing provided valuable insights into experimental optimization and considerations for future performance evaluations. These findings support the potential scalability of the technology and highlight its applicability to broader nuclear waste management operations, offering improved safety and reduced operational costs through enhanced catalyst durability and lower replacement frequency.

Tener, Zachary P. [Savannah River National Laborat↗

DOE OSTI2024

Considerations in Proliferation Resistance Optimization of Medical Isotope Facilities

The U.S. Proliferation Resistance and Optimization (PRO-X) program provides a framework for design optimization of a system, component, or feature of a nuclear facility to minimize potential Special Nuclear Material production and diversion pathways while optimizing system performance for peaceful, asintended missions.

Groden, Nicholas D.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Flaw Tolerance Assessment for DOE Standard SNF Dry Storage Canisters - 26550

The U.S. DOE has designed four spent nuclear fuel (SNF) dry storage canisters for storing DOE standardized SNFs. The DOE standard canisters are cylindrical shells with a diameter of 24 inches (610 m) or 18 inches (457 m), a wall thickness of 0.5 inches (12.7 m) or 0.375 inches (9.53 m), and a length of 15 feet (4.57 m) or 10 feet (3.05 m). These DOE canister geometries are completely different from commercial canisters. The latter may experience chloride-induced stress cracking corrosion (CI-SCC) because they are stored near coastal regions. The former may not experience CI-SCC but face different challenges because they are stored in the SNF storage facilities. Because of large residual stresses, mechanical flaws may occur in the DOE canisters during long-distance transportation or lifting handling. To date, only limited structural integrity analyses were carried out through drop tests on the DOE canisters, but a more general flaw tolerance assessment has not been performed. Therefore, the failure assessment diagram (FAD)-based fracture mechanics method, as codified by the latest API 579-1/ASME FFS-1-2021 Edition, is adopted in this work to assess surface flaw tolerance for DOE canisters under operation loading and welding residual stresses (WRS), where the new code-recommended WRS distributions are used. To more adequately consider the transverse distribution of WRS, an equivalent WRS distribution is proposed to account for the WRS reduction with distance from the weld centerline. Moreover, the closed-form solutions of stress intensity factor K, which serves as the crack driving force during subcritical crack growth, are developed from the tabular data of the K factors provided in API 579-1/ASME FFS-1 and used to determine more accurate flaw sizes at flaw instability. Subsequently, the Level 2 assessment procedures with 12 assessment steps, as codified and detailed in API 579-1 and ASME FFS-1, are followed to assess the flaw tolerance for the surface flaws in the DOE standard canisters with consideration of normal or accident operation loads combined with WRS. The assessment results show that the four designs of DOE standard canisters can tolerate all surface flaws that meet the code permitted maximum sizes of a flaw length of 8 inches (i.e., 200 mm) and a flaw depth of 80% wall thickness. This demonstrates that all designs of DOE standard canisters are robust and reliable.

DOE standard canister↗

DOE OSTI2023

Design of Diverse Asymmetric Pockets in De Novo Homo-oligomeric Proteins

A challenge for design of protein–small-molecule recognition is that incorporation of cavities with size, shape, and composition suitable for specific recognition can considerably destabilize protein monomers. This challenge can be overcome through binding pockets formed at homo-oligomeric interfaces between folded monomers. Interfaces surrounding the central homo-oligomer symmetry axes necessarily have the same symmetry and so may not be well suited to binding asymmetric molecules. To enable general recognition of arbitrary asymmetric substrates and small molecules, we developed an approach to designing asymmetric interfaces at off-axis sites on homo-oligomers, analogous to those found in native homo-oligomeric proteins such as glutamine synthetase. We symmetrically dock curved helical repeat proteins such that they form pockets at the asymmetric interface of the oligomer with sizes ranging from several angstroms, appropriate for binding a single ion, to up to more than 20 Å across. Of the 133 proteins tested, 84 had soluble expression in E. coli, 47 had correct oligomeric states in solution, 35 had small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) data largely consistent with design models, and 8 had negative-stain electron microscopy (nsEM) 2D class averages showing the structures coming together as designed. Both an X-ray crystal structure and a cryogenic electron microscopy (cryoEM) structure are close to the computational design models. The nature of these proteins as homo-oligomers allows them to be readily built into higher-order structures such as nanocages, and the asymmetric pockets of these structures open rich possibilities for small-molecule binder design free from the constraints associated with monomer destabilization.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated experimental design of safe rampdowns via probabilistic machine learning

Abstract Typically the rampdown phase of a shot consists of a decrease in current and injected power and optionally a change in shape, but there is considerable flexibility in the rate, sequencing, and duration of these changes. On the next generation of tokamaks it is essential that this is done safely as the device could be damaged by the stored thermal and electromagnetic energy present in the plasma. This works presents a procedure for automatically choosing experimental rampdown designs to rapidly converge to an effective rampdown trajectory. This procedure uses probabilistic machine learning methods paired with acquisition functions taken from Bayesian optimization. In a set of 2022 experiments at DIII-D, the rampdown designs produced by our method maintained plasma control down to substantially lower current and energy levels than are typically observed. The actions predicted by the model significantly improved as the model was able to explore over the course of the experimental campaign.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mycorrhizal status and host genotype interact to shape plant nutrition in field grown maize ( Zea mays ssp. mays )

Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) establish symbioses with the major cereal crops, providing plants with increased access to nutrients while enhancing their tolerance to toxic heavy metals. However, not all plant varieties benefit equally from this association. In this study, we used quantitative trait loci (QTL) mapping to evaluate the combined effect of host genotypic variation (G) and AMF across 141 genotypes on the concentration of 20 mineral elements in the leaves and grain of field grown maize (Zea mays spp. mays). Our mapping design included selective incorporation of a castor AMF-incompatibility mutation, allowing estimation of AMF, QTL and QTLxAMF effects by comparison of mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal plants. Overall, AMF compatibility was associated with higher concentrations of boron (B), copper (Cu), molybdenum (Mo), phosphorus (P), selenium (Se) and zinc (Zn) and lower concentrations of arsenic (As), iron (Fe), magnesium (Mg), manganese (Mn), potassium (K) and strontium (Sr). In addition to effects on individual elements, pairwise correlation matrices for element concentration differed between mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal plants. We mapped 22 element QTLs, including 18 associated with QTLxAMF effects that indicate plant genotype-specific differences in the impact of AMF on the host ionome. Although there is considerable interest in AMF as biofertilizers, it remains challenging to estimate the impact of AMF in the field. Our design illustrates an effective approach for field evaluation of AMF effects. Furthermore, we demonstrate the capacity of the ionome to reveal host genotype-specific variation in the impact of AMF on plant nutrition.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

High-throughput Li plating quantification for fast-charging battery design

Fast charging of most commercial lithium-ion batteries is limited due to fear of lithium plating on the graphite anode, which is difficult to detect and poses considerable safety risk. In this report we demonstrate the power of simple, accessible and high-throughput cycling techniques to quantify irreversible Li plating spanning data from over 200 cells. We first observe the effects of energy density, charge rate, temperature and state of charge on lithium plating, use the results to refine a mature physics-based electrochemical model and provide an interpretable empirical equation for predicting the plating onset state of charge. We then explore the reversibility of lithium plating and its connection to electrolyte design for preventing irreversible Li accumulation. Finally, we design a method to quantify in situ Li plating for commercially relevant graphite|LiNi 0.5 Mn 0.3 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC) cells and compare with results from the experimentally convenient Li|graphite configuration. The hypotheses and abundant data herein were generated primarily with equipment universal to the battery researcher, encouraging further development of innovative testing methods and data processing that enable rapid battery engineering.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electromagnetic Shielding Design for 200 kW Stationary Wireless Charging of Light-Duty EV

Wireless power transfer (WPT) is a developing technology with the advantage of convenience and flexible charging. SAE recommended practice J2954 defines typical size and geometry with aluminum or ferrite plate shielding to limit leakage electromagnetic (EM) fields for WPT with power levels lower than 22 kVA from the input side. However, as the WPT power goes up to 100- or 200-kW level, EM safety surrounding the WPT becomes a critical concern. To address this oncoming safety challenge, a novel ferrite shielding design is proposed in this paper. Different misalignment scenarios in accordance with definitions in SAE J2954 are also taken into consideration to ensure EM safety under various operation scenarios. Simulation results, which are preliminarily verified by magnetic field measurements at 1.1 m from the center of the vehicle side coil under 100 kW operation, indicate that the magnetic field leakage can be maintained below the limits defined in SAE J2954 for 200 kW operation. A 3.3 kW scale-down test was also carried out and compared to parallel scale-down simulations. 26.8% field emission reduction is observed from the scale-down test, which supports the effectiveness of the proposed shielding design.

Zhang, Bo↗

DOE OSTI2020

Electromagnetic Shielding Design for 200 kW Stationary Wireless Charging of Light-Duty EV

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2023

SULI Internship Deliverables (Flow Orifice Design: Measuring Degas Flow of Experiment Loops at the Advanced Test Reactor)

These deliverables present a design for a new orifice flow meter to be installed in three experiment loops at the Advanced Test Reactor. The current configuration of the experiment loop system has an orifice that is not properly sized to the low flow rates of the degas line of the pressurizer system, causing inaccurate flow measurements. Under consideration of flow conditions and system constraints, an iterative procedure was utilized to determine the optimal sizing for a new orifice. This orifice is designed to accurately and precisely measure the flow rate of the degas line, which will consequently improve control of the pressure and chemistry of the loop pressurizer system. The scope of this project includes recommendations for orifice sizing, material, flange type, face type, and installation location on the loop piping spools. The design is suitable for experiment loops 1D-N, 2B-SE, and 2D-SW and meets all necessary standards.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Layered oxide cathode-inspired secondary hard carbon microsphere anode material for high-power and long-life rechargeable batteries

A new anode material that will provide lithium ion (Li-ion) batteries with high energy and power density is urgently needed. In this work, a layered oxide cathode-inspired secondary hard carbon microsphere (CMS) anode material was designed, and exhibited excellent rate performance and long cyclability. Polyacrylonitrile/poly(styrene-co-acrylonitrile) (PAN/SAN) compositions displaying the meatball-like shape of the PAN precursor were carbonized into CMSs having turbostratic microstructures. The CMS carbonized at 1,000°C (CMS1000) displayed high specific capacity at the highest current density of 1,000mAg -1 , i.e., 77.6 % of its average charge capacity at 100 mA g -1 , and considerable cycling retention after 500 cycles, i.e., 83.8 % of the specific capacity at cycle 25. In conclusion, our work demonstrates that the design of new anode materials is a fruitful route to improve commercial Li-ion batteries.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Projections of H-mode access and edge pedestal in the SPARC tokamak

In order to inform core performance projections and divertor design, the baseline SPARC tokamak plasma discharge is evaluated for its expected H-mode access, pedestal pressure and edge-localized mode (ELM) characteristics. A clear window for H-mode access is predicted for full field DT plasmas, with the available 25 MW of design auxiliary power. Additional alpha heating is likely needed for H-mode sustainment. Pressure pedestal predictions in the developed H-mode are surveyed using the EPED model. The projected SPARC pedestal would be limited dominantly by peeling modes and may achieve pressures in excess of 0.3 MPa at a density of approximately 3 × 10 20 m -3 . High pedestal pressure is partially enabled by strong equilibrium shaping, which has been increased as part of recent design iterations. Edge-localized modes (ELMs) with >1 MJ of energy are projected, and approaches for reducing the ELM size, and thus the peak energy fluence to divertor surfaces, are under consideration. The high pedestal predicted for SPARC provides ample margin to satisfy its high fusion gain (Q) mission, so that even if ELM mitigation techniques result in a 2x reduction of the pedestal pressure, Q > 2 is still predicted.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗