Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “dependability modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Time-Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis (Rev.1)

Online synthesis of power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light-water reactors, power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report examines the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a pressurized water reactor (PWR), considering the typical low-enriched uranium (LEU, 3%-5% enrichment) fuel cycle as well as the higher enrichment LEU+ (5%-8% enrichment) fuel cycle. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative PWR LEU core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used as well to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters and the extended nature of the LEU+ fuel cycle in comparison with LEU. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly underapproximated or overapproximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumptions leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum (for LEU). The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in both the LEU and LEU+ fuel cycles considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model for lattices

Here we present the Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model designed for two-dimensional lattices as a variation of a Markov random field assuming discrete values. In this model, the neighborhood structure has a fixed geometry but a variable order, depending on the neighbors’ values. Our model extends the Probabilistic Context Tree model, originally applicable to one-dimensional space. It retains advantageous properties, such as representing the dependence neighborhood structure as a graph in a tree format, facilitating an understanding of model complexity. Furthermore, we adapt the algorithm used to estimate the Probabilistic Context Tree to estimate the parameters of the proposed model. We illustrate the accuracy of our estimation methodology through simulation studies. Additionally, we apply the Probabilistic Context Neighborhood model to spatial real-world data, showcasing its practical utility.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Comparative Study and Validation of Photovoltaic Model Formulations for the IBPSA Modelica Library based on Rooftop Measurement Data

Domain-overarching system models are crucial to investigate sector coupling concepts. Specifically, the coupling of building and electrical energy systems becomes crucial to integrate renewable energy sources such as photovoltaic power systems (PV). For such interdisciplinary simulation models, Modelica is a suitable language. However, most open-source Modelica libraries are either domain-specific or lack simple-to-parameterize PV models. We close this gap by developing a PV model for the IBPSA Modelica library. The model comprises two I-V-characteristic models and three mounting-dependent approaches to calculate the cell temperature. The I-V-characteristic models follow a single- and two-diodes approach. This study uses measurement data from a rooftop PV system in Berlin, Germany, for validation. The focus lies on comparing the implemented single- and two-diodes approach. Results prove that both models accurately calculate the modules’ DC power output and cell temperature. The two-diodes approach slightly outperforms the single-diode one at the expense of a higher parameterization effort.

Maier, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2023

Piezoelectric Energy Harvesting Gyroscopes: Comparative Modeling and Effectiveness

Given its versatility in drawing power from many sources in the natural world, piezoelectric energy harvesting (PEH) has become increasingly popular. However, its energy harvesting capacities could be enhanced further. Here, a mathematical model that accurately simulates the dynamic behavior and energy harvested can facilitate further improvements in the performance of piezoelectric devices. One of the goals of this study is to create a dependable reduced-order model of a multi-purpose gyroscope. This model will make it possible to compute the harvested voltage and electrical power in a semi-analytical manner. The harvested voltage is often modeled as an average value across the whole electrode surface in piezoelectric devices. We propose a model which provides practical insights toward optimizing the performance of the system by considering a spatially varying electric field across the electrode surface length. Our framework allows investigation of the limits of applicability of the modeling assumptions across a range of load resistances. The differential quadrature method (DQM) provides the basis for the suggested numerical solution. The model is also employed to examine energy harvesting under various resistance loads. The newly developed spatially varying model is evaluated for open- and closed-circuit conditions and is proved to be accurate for various values of load resistance that have not previously been considered. The results show that using a spatially varying model is more versatile when modeling the performance of the piezoelectric multifunctional energy harvester. The performance may be accurately captured by the model for load resistances ranging between 103 Ω and 108 Ω. At optimum load resistance and near 65 KHz, the maximum power output predicted by the spatially varying (SV) model is 1.3 mV, 1.5 mV for the open-circuit (OC) model, and 2.1 mV for the closed circuit (CE) model. At a high-load resistance, the SV and OC models all predict the maximum power output to be 1.9 mV while the CE model predicted the maximum voltage to be 3 mV.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data-driven models of nonautonomous systems

Nonautonomous dynamical systems are characterized by time-dependent inputs, which complicates the discovery of predictive models describing the spatiotemporal evolution of the state variables of quantities of interest from their temporal snapshots. When dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is used to infer a linear model, this difficulty manifests itself in the need to approximate the time-dependent Koopman operators. Our approach is to approximate the original nonautonomous system with a modified system derived via a local parameterization of the time-dependent inputs. The modified system comprises a sequence of local parametric systems, which are subsequently approximated by a parametric surrogate model using the DRIPS (dimension reduction and interpolation in parameter space) framework. The offline step of DRIPS relies on DMD to build a linear surrogate model, endowed with reduced-order bases for the observables mapped from training data. The online step interpolates on suitable manifolds to construct a sequence of iterative parametric surrogate models; the target/test parameter points on these manifolds are specified by a local parameterization of the test time-dependent inputs. Here, we use numerical experimentation to demonstrate the robustness of our method and compare its performance with that of deep neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Comparing ab initio and quantum-kinetic approaches to electron transport in warm dense matter

Accurate knowledge of the electronic transport properties of warm dense matter is one of the main concerns of research in high-energy-density physics. Three modern approaches with vastly different levels of fidelity are reviewed and compared: the Kubo–Greenwood (KG) approach based on density-functional-theory molecular dynamics simulations (QMD), quantum kinetic theory based on average-atom models, and time-dependent density functional theory. Throughout, emphasis is placed on the connection between static properties of the electrons (e.g., density of states) and transport properties. Overall, it is found that whenever the conduction electrons can be modeled as being nearly free, fair to excellent agreement is found between QMD and kinetic theory approaches. Such a circumstance is required for modeling warm dense matter as a plasma of ions and free electrons, which is assumed in most kinetic theory approaches. The sensitivity of transport properties to the electronic structure is further highlighted by comparing different exchange–correlation approximations in QMD and KG calculations. It is found that the inclusion of exact exchange via thermal hybrid functionals can make a pronounced impact on electrical and thermal conduction in warm dense matter. We also investigate dynamic screening physics via kinetic theory and time-dependent density functional theory calculations of the mean free path of an electron in a hot dense plasma. In sum, we identify three axes along which to make progress in predicting electron transport in warm dense matter.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity Modeling of Fuel-To-Coolant Thermomechanical Transport Behaviors Under Transient Conditions

This report summarizes the work completed under NEUP project number 21-24006. The objectives of this project are to advance the high-fidelity modeling capabilities and important phenomena that is important for high-burnup UO 2 and accident tolerant fuels (ATF) during transient conditions. Accurate modeling of the time-dependent phenomena that impact material performance must be used to determine the figures of merit and safety margin. Phenomena such as fuel fragmentation, cladding oxidation, pellet-clad interaction, clad ballooning, and clad rupture are examples that pose challenges to modeling during these transients. This project focused on the development of high-fidelity tightly coupled multiphysics models that can capture the time-dependent material response and associated thermal hydraulic conditions during these events. These models can then be validated against existing separate effects tests and in-pile integral experiments and will be used to model Transient Reactor Test facility (TREAT) loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) experiments. To achieve the project objective, we used a combination of NEAMS and NRC codes to model various LOCA test sets for the separate effects and in-pile integral experiments. BlueCRAB tool set, which can accurately predict material response at a sub-fuel pin level, as well as modeling the entire reactor system response to these events. Fuel performance was modeled using BISON (various versions) and FAST (version 1.2.1). BISON and FAST can model on a sub-fuel pin level the fuel performance under transient conditions. Both have simplified thermal hydraulic models that are capable of providing basic coolant boundary conditions. To better capture the thermomechanical interaction between the fuel, clad, and coolant, more sophisticated thermal hydraulic models are necessary.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Theory of Plasmonic Hot-Carrier Generation and Relaxation

Hot-carrier (HC) generation from (localized) surface plasmon decay has recently attracted much attention due to its promising applications in physical, chemical, materials, and energy science. However, the detailed mechanisms of plasmonic HC generation, relaxation, and trapping are less studied. In this work, we developed and applied a quantum-mechanical model and coupled master equation method to study the generation of HCs from plasmon decay and their following relaxation processes with different mechanisms treated on equal footing. First, a quantum-mechanical model for HC generation is developed. Its connection to existing semiclassical models and time-dependent density functional theory (TDDFT) is discussed. Second, the relaxation and lifetimes of HCs are investigated in the presence of electron–electron and electron–phonon interactions. A GW-like approximation is introduced to account for the electron–electron scattering. The numerical simulations on the Jellium nanoparticles with a size up to 1.6 nm demonstrate the electron–electron scattering and electron–phonon scattering dominate different time scale in the relaxation dynamics. We also generalize the model to study the extraction of HCs to attached molecules. The quantum yield of extracting HCs for other applications is found to be size-dependent. In general, the smaller size of NP improves the quantum yield, which is in agreement with recent experimental measurements. Even though we demonstrate this newly developed theoretical formalism with Jellium model, the theory applies to any other atomistic models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

GP-BayesOpInf

SAND2025-01851O GP-BayesOpInf is a software tool that uses algorithms to combine Gaussian process regression, principal component analysis, and linear Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic reduced-order model for time-dependent systems. Numerical examples include the compressible Euler equations for an ideal gas, a heat diffusion process with a nonlinear reaction term, and a set of ordinary differential equations describing a compartmental model in epidemiology. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Parallel Kinetic Model for Surface and Bulk Charge Storage in ε -MnO 2 Pseudocapacitors

Pseudocapacitive materials such as manganese dioxide (MnO 2 ) are attractive for energy storage applications due to their ability to combine the fast kinetics of capacitors with the higher energy density of battery-type systems. However, the electrochemical behavior of MnO 2 remains difficult to interpret mechanistically, in part because existing models often fail to distinguish between surface-based redox processes and bulk intercalation mechanisms. In this work, we develop a physics-based model that represents MnO 2 pseudocapacitance as a linear combination of two independent, parallel electrochemical processes: (i) the surface or near-surface redox storage and (ii) lithium ion intercalation into the bulk material. These two processes are treated with distinct kinetic and thermodynamic parameters and are assumed to proceed independently. The total measured current is assumed to be the sum of these two partial currents. We validate the model using rate-dependent cyclic voltammetry experiments, demonstrating that it captures key trends and provides physically interpretable parameters reflecting the relative contributions of surface and bulk processes. By enabling a clear separation between these mechanisms, the model offers a useful framework for analyzing pseudocapacitive materials and can guide the rational design of high-performance energy storage electrodes.

Energy - Storage↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of surface charge and cluster size on the electrochemical dissolution of platinum nanoparticles using COMB3 and continuum electrolyte models

We study the site-dependent dissolution of platinum nanoparticles under electrochemical conditions to assess their thermodynamic stability as a function of shape and size using empirical molecular dynamics and electronic-structure models. The third-generation charge optimized many-body potential is employed to determine the validity of uniform spherical representations of the nanoparticles in predicting dissolution potentials (the Kelvin model). To understand the early stages of catalyst dissolution, implicit solvation techniques based on the self-consistent continuum solvation method are applied. It is demonstrated that interfacial charge and polarization can shift the dissolution energies by amounts on the order of 0.74 eV depending on the surface site and nanoparticle shape, leading to the unexpected preferential removal of platinum cations from highly coordinated sites in some cases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Do quasar X-ray and UV flux measurements provide a useful test of cosmological models?

ABSTRACT The recent compilation of quasar (QSO) X-ray and ultraviolet (UV) flux measurements include QSOs that appear to not be standardizable via the X-ray luminosity and UV luminosity (LX–LUV) relation and so should not be used to constrain cosmological model parameters. Here, we show that the largest of seven sub-samples in this compilation, the SDSS-4XMM QSOs that contribute about 2/3 of the total QSOs, have LX–LUV relations that depend on the cosmological model assumed and also on redshift, and is the main cause of the similar problem discovered earlier for the full QSO compilation. The second and third biggest sub-samples, the SDSS-Chandra and XXL QSOs that together contribute about 30 per cent of the total QSOs, appear standardizable, but provide only weak constraints on cosmological parameters that are not inconsistent with the standard spatially flat ΛCDM model or with constraints from better-established cosmological probes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Review of the second charged-particle transport coefficient code comparison workshop

We report the results of the second charged-particle transport coefficient code comparison workshop, which was held in Livermore, California on 24–27 July 2023. This workshop gathered theoretical, computational, and experimental scientists to assess the state of computational and experimental techniques for understanding charged-particle transport coefficients relevant to high-energy-density plasma science. Data for electronic and ionic transport coefficients, namely, the direct current electrical conductivity, electron thermal conductivity, ion shear viscosity, and ion thermal conductivity were computed and compared for multiple plasma conditions. Additional comparisons were carried out for electron–ion properties such as the electron–ion equilibration time and alpha particle stopping power. Overall, 39 participants submitted calculated results from 18 independent approaches, spanning methods from parameterized semi-empirical models to time-dependent density functional theory. In the cases studied here, we find significant differences—several orders of magnitude—between approaches, particularly at lower temperatures, and smaller differences—roughly a factor of five—among first-principles models. We investigate the origins of these differences through comparisons of underlying predictions of ionic and electronic structure. The results of this workshop help to identify plasma conditions where computationally inexpensive approaches are accurate, where computationally expensive models are required, and where experimental measurements will have high impact.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coverage-Dependent Adsorption of Hydrogen on Fe(100): Determining Catalytically Relevant Surface Structures via Lattice Gas Models

Hydrogen adatoms are a critical surface species for several reactions catalyzed by Fe surfaces such as Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, ammonia synthesis, and the hydrodeoxygenation of biomass-derived oxygenates. Parameterizing the energetics for H/Fe in terms of both coverage and configuration space can significantly aid in the development of multiscale models as well as provide atomic level insight into the dominant surface structures present under realistic reaction conditions. Here, we construct a lattice gas model for H/Fe(100), where the lateral interactions are determined from first-principles using density functional theory. Using 950 symmetrically unique H/Fe(100) configurations, we generate a cluster expansion with a predictive accuracy in terms of surface energy of 3.8 meV/site over a coverage range from 0 to 3 monolayers. Ten electronic ground state structures are identified from this thorough scan (including the structures at 0 and 3 monolayers), which were subsequently used to generate ab initio phase diagrams under a range of temperatures and pressures. Under reaction conditions typical of Fischer–Tropsch synthesis, ammonia synthesis, and biomass oxygenate hydrodeoxygenation, we find that the 1.0 monolayer structure is dominant. Furthermore, examination of the total H–H lateral interactions for the H/Fe(100) electronic ground state structures shows that H/Fe(100) can be accurately modeled via a mean-field ideal lattice gas model for coverages less than 1.0 monolayers. Altogether, this work enables the incorporation of H–H lateral interactions on Fe(100) into multiscale models, via either mean-field or site-dependent techniques, and provides atomic insight into the catalytically relevant H/Fe(100) structures for a range of heterogeneous reactions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗