Results for “demand modelling” — Page 46

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 3. Potentiel du marche de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89246 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 5. Conception et modelisation de systemes solaires hors reseau

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89248 for the English translation of this document.

designing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 8. Modelisation financiere pour le solaire hors reseau

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89251 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 6. Installation, exploitation et entretien des systemes solaires hors reseau

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89249 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 9. Genre et acces a l'energie

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89252 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 11. Adaptation et resilience au climat

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89254 for the English translation of this document.

adaptation↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 4. Considerations relatives a la demande et a l'offre pour l'energie solaire hors reseau

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89247 for the English translation of this document.

customers↗

DOE OSTI2024

Guide de base pour l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti: 10. Utilisation productive de l'energie

Cette formation donne un apercu des informations et des concepts cles de l'energie solaire hors reseau en Haiti, renforcant ainsi les connaissances fondamentales et la capacite de catalyser l'interet pour l'energie solaire hors reseau pour l'electrification rurale en Haiti. Ce cours a rythme libre est offert en anglais et en francais et couvre une variete de sujets lies a l'acces a l'energie en Haiti, notamment les produits solaires hors reseau, le potentiel du marche en Haiti, les considerations liees a l'offre et a la demande, la conception, l'installation et la maintenance du systeme, -modeles commerciaux solaires en reseau, modelisation financiere, genre et acces a l'energie, utilisation productive de l'energie et adaptation au climat. La formation est destinee aux etudiants universitaires, aux partenaires gouvernementaux, aux ONG, aux bailleurs de fonds, aux partenaires de developpement, aux professionnels, etc. Aucune connaissance prealable du solaire hors reseau ou d'Haiti n'est requise pour beneficier de cette formation. See NREL/PR-7A40-89253 for the English translation of this document.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-based characterization of the variability of earthquake risk to buildings in the near-field

Recent advancements in high performance computing platforms and computational workflow for regional-scale simulations are enabling unprecedented modeling of fault-to-structure earthquake processes. Regional simulations resolving ground motions at frequencies relevant to engineered systems are becoming computationally viable and provide a new capability to improve understanding of the geographical distribution and intensity of risk to buildings and critical infrastructure. As computational capabilities advance, it is essential to move beyond illustrative single rupture realizations for scenario earthquake events towards the development of a full suite of rupture realizations that appropriately characterize the range of risk to building systems. The work described in this article investigates the application of a suite of fault rupture realizations with the objective of assessing near-fault, site-specific seismic demand variability for building structures. A representative high-performance regional-scale computational model is utilized to execute ground motion and building response simulations based on 18 kinematic rupture realizations of an M7 strike-slip scenario earthquake. The fault rupture models for the scenario earthquake are created by systematically perturbing the hypocenter location and stochastically generating rupture parameters (slip, rise time, rake angle) to represent a breadth of ground motion intensities resulting from the spatial and temporal variabilities of an earthquake rupture process. The resulting seismic demand variability for three-story (short period) and forty-story (long period) steel moment-resisting frame buildings is characterized in terms of the median and distribution of peak inter-story drift ratio for a range of near-fault sites. The full suite of 18 fault rupture realizations and approximately 280,000 nonlinear dynamic building simulations indicate that the three-story building undergoes higher median seismic demand and significantly greater variability of demand at a given site than the forty-story building, which has important implications for the level of certainty in predicting building performance during an earthquake. The simulations performed provide deeper insight into the relationship between fault rupture parameterization and building response, which is essential information for developing a representative suite of rupture realizations for specific earthquake scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Electric Vehicle Charging Demand in the Chicago Metropolitan Area through 2030

This report outlines the collaborative efforts between Argonne National Laboratory and Exelon in advancing the Agent-Based Transportation Energy Analysis Model (ATEAM). Aligning with ComEd’s beneficial electrification plan, this study developed eight scenarios to access the temporal and spatial distribution of charging load and demand stemming from the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEV) adoption, augmented public charging infrastructure deployment, and increased multi-unit dwelling (MUD) charging availability. Enhancements to the ATEAM model encompassed the simulation of multiple days of travel behavior, estimation of total public charging infrastructure needs, user interface refinements, and output tracking at both vehicle and charging station levels. The total electricity consumption for residential and public charging to support over 800,000 BEVs in Chicago in 2029 is projected at approximately 10.2 GWh. Enhanced MUD home charging accessibility (70%) amplifies the home charging load in the study area by 1.5% compared to the baseline scenario (10%). The widespread adoption of BEVs reduces peak charging loads, owing to their inclusion across households with diverse income levels, thus fostering a more dispersed charging activity pattern. However, widespread BEV adoption increases the peak home charging load in areas with lower median household incomes, reflecting a higher BEV concentration in these locales and, subsequently, heightened peak charging demands. In the Widespread BEV adoption scenario, fewer census tracts exhibit elevated peak loads for combined home and public charging, indicating a more even distribution of charging demand across the study area. Predominantly, peak loads for combined charging—both home and public— occur between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m. across all scenarios, encompassing the majority of census tracts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

A machine learning approach for determining temperature-dependent bandgap of metal oxides utilizing Allen–Heine–Cardona theory and O’Donnell model parameterization

To evaluate the high temperature sensing properties of metal oxide and perovskite materials suitable for use in combustion environments, it is necessary to understand the temperature dependence of their bandgaps. Although such temperature-driven changes can be calculated via the Allen–Heine–Cardona (AHC) theory, which assesses electron–phonon coupling for the bandgap correction at given temperatures, this approach is computationally demanding. Another approach to predict bandgap temperature-dependence is the O’Donnell model, which uses analytical expressions with multiple fitting parameters that require bandgap information at 0 K. This work employs data-driven Gaussian process regression (GPR) to predict the parameters employed in the O’Donnell model from a set of physical features. We use a sample of 54 metal oxides for which density functional theory has been performed to calculate the bandgap at 0 K, and the AHC calculations have been carried out to determine the shift in the bandgap at non-zero temperatures. As the AHC calculations are impractical for high-throughput screening of materials, the developed GPR model attempts to alleviate this issue by predicting the O'Donnell parameters purely from physical features. To mitigate the reliability issues arising from the very small size of the dataset, we apply a Bayesian technique to improve the generalizability of the data-driven models as well as quantify the uncertainty associated with the predictions. The method captures well the overall trend of the O’Donnell parameters with respect to a reduced feature set obtained by transforming the available physical features. Quantifying the associated uncertainty helps us understand the reliability of the predictions of the O’Donnell parameters and, therefore, the bandgap as a function of temperature for any novel material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Policy and Regulatory Environment for Utility-Scale Energy Storage: India

This report is part of a series investigating the potential for utility-scale energy storage in South Asia. The first part of the work is focused on opportunities and barriers for energy storage within existing policy and regulatory frameworks in the region. This report applies the previously-developed Energy Storage Readiness Assessment to evaluate the policy and regulatory environment for energy storage in India. Forthcoming reports will expand this analysis to other countries in South Asia. These evaluations are designed to provide insights on the opportunities and barriers for energy storage growth and deployment in each country. The second part of this work consists of techno-economic analysis to understand the drivers of energy storage investments in South Asia. Using NREL’s power system planning and operational models of South Asia, this analysis will identify potential storage applications and growth under various cost, policy, and demand growth scenarios. In addition, the regulatory and policy barriers and incentive mechanisms identified in the first task will be incorporated into the modeling task to understand their impact on energy storage deployment and operation. Together these studies will inform the applications and value of energy storage on South Asia power systems and policy and regulatory pathways to realize this value.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Recent Improvements in the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) has significantly evolved since the first release of the point source database in 1993. The NSRDB has been widely used by the solar energy industry to provide long-term time-series solar resource data for various project phases. The NSRDB represents the state of the art in the satellite-based estimation of solar resource information and uses a unique physics-based modeling approach that allows improvements in accuracy with the deployment of the next-generation geostationary satellites. This poster provides an overview of (1) the improved spatiotemporal resolution; (2) on-demand services and their applications; (3) future Improvements, such as a new direct normal irradiance model and new methods to gap-fill missing data using physics-guided machine learning; (4) data quality; and (5) data dissemination.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Heuristic Dispatch Based on Price Signals for Behind-the-Meter PV-Battery Systems in the System Advisor Model

The economic potential of a behind-the-meter (BTM) PV-battery system depends greatly on how the battery is dispatched. Different utility rates, system sizes, generation and load profiles can all require different dispatch strategies. This paper presents price signals dispatch, a new algorithm for automated economic dispatch of BTM PV-battery systems, which utilizes 24-hour PV and load forecasts, degradation data, and utility rates. The algorithm is integrated with the System Advisor Model (SAM) tool and is tested with a nonlinear generic electrochemical battery model. Price signals dispatch outperforms SAM's existing algorithms in cases requiring a balance between demand charge management and energy arbitrage, and in cases where battery degradation imposes a significant cost.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2021

Modelling and control coordination scheme of a wind‐to‐hydrogen set for future renewable‐based power systems

New challenges regarding system stability and efficiency arise when power systems operate with a high penetration level of inverter‐based renewable sources (IBRSs) and few synchronous generators. Since IBRSs have been on the rise, to secure the stable operation of future power systems, IBRSs will be required to support systems without having to rely on remaining synchronous generators. Also, to efficiently manage the uncertainty of renewable production, power‐to‐gas technology can provide the required flexibility. This study proposes modelling and a control coordination scheme (CCS) of a wind‐to‐hydrogen (W2H) set to optimise electricity production from a variable‐speed wind turbine generator (WTG) while helping balance between supply and demand in a system. To achieve this, a grid‐forming (GFM) inverter‐based WTG is modelled and a set of electrolyser and fuel cell is integrated at the DC circuit of a GFM‐WTG to be coordinated. Furthermore, the CCS offers an opportunity to reduce the investment cost for deploying a W2H set by utilising the control capabilities of a WTG and reducing the need for an additional device. The performance of the proposed W2H set with the CCS was verified considering the variations in system load and wind speed by using Power System Computer Aided Design (PSCAD)/ElectroMagnetic Transients including Direct Current (EMTDC).

Kim, Jinho↗

DOE OSTI2023

Enhancing flexibility for climate change using seasonal energy storage (aquifer thermal energy storage) in distributed energy systems

Long-term energy storage is expected to play a vital role in the deep decarbonization of building energy sectors, while enhancing the flexibility of buildings to withstand future climate variations. However, it is challenging to design distributed multi-energy systems (DMES) while taking into account the uncertainties introduced by climate change, since stochastic optimization of such systems is difficult. The present study introduces a stochastic optimization model to address this bottleneck, taking into account DMES including aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) as the long-term thermal storage. For the first time, a novel optimization algorithm links ATES with the DMES optimization model with the support of a simplified geotechnical model. Subsequently, a case study was conducted, focusing on a residential district in Chicago where the impact of future climate condition, energy demand, and solar and wind energy potentials were evaluated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) data (up to 2080) and the EnergyPlus model. The study revealed that ATES is an attractive way to improve the renewable energy penetration level and minimize the dependence on fossil fuels with reasonable support from the grid to assist the fluctuations in both demand and generation. Furthermore, ATES notably reduces fuel consumption and dependence while greatly enhancing the flexibility of the energy system to withstand fluctuations in demand and renewable energy generation brought by future climate variations. These qualities will make ATES an important part of distributed energy systems, even though it is not currently the lowest cost alternative due to lack of technology maturity. Furthermore, the design platform introduced in the present study can be used to design DMES enhancing flexibility to accommodate future climate variations.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating room air conditioner efficiency in India: Grid, economic, and policy implications through 2035

India is poised for a rapid surge in space cooling demand, driven by rising incomes, urbanization, and intensifying heat. Between 2025 and 2035, the country is expected to add 130–150 million new room air conditioners (ACs). If Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) continue to improve at the historical rate of 2–3 % annually, room ACs alone could contribute over 180 GW to peak electricity demand by 2035-nearly 30 % of the projected national total. This study evaluates the impact of an accelerated MEPS trajectory, proposing to raise the 1-star threshold to ISEER 5.0 by 2027, ISEER 6.3 by 2030, and ISEER 7.4 by 2033. Drawing on engineering cost analysis, stock turnover modeling, and retail pricing data, we find that this pathway could reduce peak demand by over 60 GW, save 118 TWh of electricity annually, avoid 49 MtCO₂ of electricity-related emissions per year, avert ₹7.5 trillion (∼US$85 billion) in power system investments, and yield ₹0.7–2.3 trillion (∼US$8–26 billion) in net consumer savings by 2035. Contrary to affordability concerns, empirical trends show that higher efficiency does not increase AC prices. These results highlight the value of ambitious MEPS as a cost-effective strategy for improving grid reliability, reducing emissions, and advancing consumer welfare in emerging economies.

Abhyankar, Nikit↗

DOE OSTI2022

Instantiation of HCML Demonstrating Bayesian Predictive Modeling for Attentional Control

The research team developed models of Attentional Control (AC) that are unique to existing modeling approaches in the literature. The goal was to enable the research team to (1) make predictions about AC and human performance in real-world scenarios and (2) to make predictions about individual characteristics based on human data. First, the team developed a proof-of-concept approach for representing an experimental design and human subjects data in a Bayesian model, then demonstrated an ability to draw inferences about conditions of interest relevant to real-world scenarios. Ultimately, this effort was successful, and we were able to make reasonable (meaning supported by behavioral data) inferences about conditions of interest to develop a risk model for AC (where risk is defined as a mismatch between AC and attentional demand). The team additionally defined a path forward for a human-constrained machine learning (HCML) approach to make predictions about an individual's state based on performance data. The effort represents a successful first step in both modeling efforts and serves as a basis for future work activities. Numerous opportunities for future work have been defined.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗