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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Hybrid Energy System Workflow for Energy Portfolio Optimization

This manuscript develops a workflow, driven by data analytics algorithms, to support the optimization of the economic performance of an Integrated Energy System. The goal is to determine the optimum mix of capacities from a set of different energy producers (e.g., nuclear, gas, wind and solar). A stochastic-based optimizer is employed, based on Gaussian Process Modeling, which requires numerous samples for its training. Each sample represents a time series describing the demand, load, or other operational and economic profiles for various types of energy producers. These samples are synthetically generated using a reduced order modeling algorithm that reads a limited set of historical data, such as demand and load data from past years. Numerous data analysis methods are employed to construct the reduced order models, including, for example, the Auto Regressive Moving Average, Fourier series decomposition, and the peak detection algorithm. All these algorithms are designed to detrend the data and extract features that can be employed to generate synthetic time histories that preserve the statistical properties of the original limited historical data. The optimization cost function is based on an economic model that assesses the effective cost of energy based on two figures of merit: the specific cash flow stream for each energy producer and the total Net Present Value. An initial guess for the optimal capacities is obtained using the screening curve method. The results of the Gaussian Process model-based optimization are assessed using an exhaustive Monte Carlo search, with the results indicating reasonable optimization results. The workflow has been implemented inside the Idaho National Laboratory’s Risk Analysis and Virtual Environment (RAVEN) framework. The main contribution of this study addresses several challenges in the current optimization methods of the energy portfolios in IES: First, the feasibility of generating the synthetic time series of the periodic peak data; Second, the computational burden of the conventional stochastic optimization of the energy portfolio, associated with the need for repeated executions of system models; Third, the inadequacies of previous studies in terms of the comparisons of the impact of the economic parameters. The proposed workflow can provide a scientifically defendable strategy to support decision-making in the electricity market and to help energy distributors develop a better understanding of the performance of integrated energy systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS1994

Meteoritic Constraints on Models of the Solar Nebula: The Abundances of Moderately Volatile Elements

The "moderately volatile" elements are those which condense (or evaporate) in the temperature range 650 - 1350 K, as a mix of material with solar abundances is cooled (or heated) tinder equilibrium conditions. Their relative abundances in chondritic meteorites are solar (or "cosmic", as defined by the composition of Cl meteorites) to within a factor of several, but vary within that range in a way that correlates remarkably well with condensation temperature, independent of chemical affinity. It has been argued that this correlation reflects a systematically selective process which favored the accretion of refractory material over volatile material from a cooling nebula. Wasson and Chou (Meteoritics 9, 69-94, 1974, and Wasson and co-authors in subsequent papers) suggested that condensation and settling of solids contemporaneously with the cooling and removal of nebular gas could produce the observed abundance patterns, but a quantitative model has been lacking. We show that the abundance patterns of the moderately volatile elements in chondritic meteorites can be produced, in some degree of quantitative detail, by models of the solar nebula that are designed to conform to observations of T Tauri stars and the global conservation laws. For example, even if the local surface density of the nebula is not decreasing, condensation and accretion of solids from radially inflowing gas in a cooling nebula can result in depletions of volatiles, relative to refractories, like those observed, The details of the calculated abundance patterns depend on (but are not especially sensitive to) model parameters, and can exhibit the variations that distinguish the meteorite classes. Thus it appears that nebula characteristics such as cooling rates, radial flow velocities, and particle accumulation rates can be quantitatively constrained by demanding that they conform to meteoritic data; and the models, in turn, can produce testable hypotheses regarding the time and location of the formation of the chondrite parent bodies and the planets.

Cassen, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS1994

Meteoritic Constraints on Models of the Solar Nebula: The Abundances of Moderately Volatile Elements

The "moderately volatile" elements are those which condense (or evaporate) in the temperature range 650 - 1350 K, as a mix of material with solar abundances is cooled (or heated) under equilibrium conditions. Their relative abundances in chondritic meteorites are solar (or "cosmic", as defined by tile composition of CI meteorites) to within a factor of several, but vary within that range in a way that correlates remarkably well with condensation temperature, independent of chemical affinity. It has been argued that this correlation reflects a systematically selective process which favored the accretion of refractory material over volatile material from a cooling nebula. Wasson and Chou suggested that condensation and settling of solids contemporaneously with the cooling and removal of nebular gas could produce tile observed abundance patterns, but a quantitative model has been lacking. We show that the abundance patterns of the moderately volatile elements in chondritic meteorites can be produced, in some degree of quantitative detail, by models of the solar nebula that are designed to conform to observations of T Tauri stars and the global conservation laws. For example, even if the local surface density of the nebula is not decreasing, condensation and accretion of solids from radially inflowing gas in a cooling nebula can result in depletions of volatiles, relative to refractories, like those observed. The details of the calculated abundance patterns depend on (but are not especially sensitive to) model parameters, and can exhibit the variations that distinguish the meteorite classes. Thus it appears that nebula characteristics Such as cooling rates, radial flow velocities, and particle accumulation rates can be quantitatively constrained by demanding that they conform to meteoritic data; and the models, in turn, can produce testable hypotheses regarding the time and location of the formation of the chondrite parent bodies and the planets.

Cassen, P.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Extension of a noninteractive reliability model for ceramic matrix composites

Developments in the processing of high temperature ceramic composites demand innovative and progressive design protocols that adequately predict the thermal and mechanical behavior of these materials. The focus here is the extension of a reliability model for orthotropic ceramic composites. The approach chosen to describe failures leads to a noninteractive formulation of reliability that is phenomenological. This particular criterion, which was constructed using tensorial invariant theory, allows six potential failure modes to emerge.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗
DOE OSTI2023

National Transmission Planning Study - Long-Term Modeling Results

The National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study) analyzed the transformation needed to ensure the U.S. transmission system continues to reliably meet electricity demand as the power sector evolves. The study linked several long- and short-term power systems models to test numerous interregional and regional transmission buildout scenarios. The results included in this dataset are from the long-term capacity expansion modeling, completed with NREL's ReEDS model. This includes nearly 100 future transmission scenarios with a wide range of economic, reliability, and resilience conditions. The dataset includes all the results visualized in the Tableau Public site, as linked below.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development and evaluation of a new 4DEnVar-based weakly coupled ocean data assimilation system in E3SMv2

The development, implementation, and evaluation of a new weakly coupled ocean data assimilation (WCODA) system for the fully coupled Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) utilizing the four-dimensional ensemble variational (4DEnVar) method are presented in this study. The 4DEnVar method, based on the dimension-reduced projection four-dimensional variational (DRP-4DVar) approach, replaces the adjoint model with the ensemble technique, thereby reducing computational demands. Monthly mean ocean temperature and salinity data from the EN4.2.1 reanalysis are integrated into the ocean component of E3SMv2 from 1950 to 2021 with the goal of providing realistic initial conditions for decadal predictions and predictability studies. The performance of the WCODA system is assessed using various metrics, including the reduction rate of the cost function, root mean square error (RMSE) differences, correlation differences, and model biases. Results indicate that the WCODA system effectively assimilates the reanalysis data into the climate model, consistently achieving negative reduction rates of the cost function and notable improvements in RMSE and correlation across various ocean layers and regions. Significant enhancements are observed in the upper ocean layers across the majority of global ocean regions, particularly in the north Atlantic, north Pacific, and Indian Ocean. Model biases in sea surface temperature and salinity are also substantially reduced. For sea surface temperature, cold biases in the north Pacific and north Atlantic are diminished by about 1–2 °C, and warm biases in the Southern Ocean are corrected by approximately 1.5–2.5 °C. In terms of salinity, improvements are observed with bias reductions of about 0.5–1 psu in the north Atlantic and north Pacific and up to 1.5 psu in parts of the Southern Ocean. The ultimate goal of the WCODA system is to advance the predictive capabilities of E3SM for subseasonal to decadal climate predictions, thereby supporting research on strategic energy-sector policies and planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study

Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation emissions across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO 2 emissions by 2050. We find the transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel in the U.S. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shifting and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

KGML-ag: a modeling framework of knowledge-guided machine learning to simulate agroecosystems: a case study of estimating N<sub>2</sub>O emission using data from mesocosm experiments

Abstract. Agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emission accounts for a non-trivial fraction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) budget. To date, estimating N2O fluxes from cropland remains a challenging task because the related microbial processes (e.g., nitrification and denitrification) are controlled by complex interactions among climate, soil, plant and human activities. Existing approaches such as process-based (PB) models have well-known limitations due to insufficient representations of the processes or uncertainties of model parameters, and due to leverage recent advances in machine learning (ML) a new method is needed to unlock the “black box” to overcome its limitations such as low interpretability, out-of-sample failure and massive data demand. In this study, we developed a first-of-its-kind knowledge-guided machine learning model for agroecosystems (KGML-ag) by incorporating biogeophysical and chemical domain knowledge from an advanced PB model, ecosys, and tested it by comparing simulating daily N2O fluxes with real observed data from mesocosm experiments. The gated recurrent unit (GRU) was used as the basis to build the model structure. To optimize the model performance, we have investigated a range of ideas, including (1) using initial values of intermediate variables (IMVs) instead of time series as model input to reduce data demand; (2) building hierarchical structures to explicitly estimate IMVs for further N2O prediction; (3) using multi-task learning to balance the simultaneous training on multiple variables; and (4) pre-training with millions of synthetic data generated from ecosys and fine-tuning with mesocosm observations. Six other pure ML models were developed using the same mesocosm data to serve as the benchmark for the KGML-ag model. Results show that KGML-ag did an excellent job in reproducing the mesocosm N2O fluxes (overall r2=0.81, and RMSE=3.6 mgNm-2d-1 from cross validation). Importantly, KGML-ag always outperforms the PB model and ML models in predicting N2O fluxes, especially for complex temporal dynamics and emission peaks. Besides, KGML-ag goes beyond the pure ML models by providing more interpretable predictions as well as pinpointing desired new knowledge and data to further empower the current KGML-ag. We believe the KGML-ag development in this study will stimulate a new body of research on interpretable ML for biogeochemistry and other related geoscience processes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nexus of electrification and energy efficiency retrofit of commercial buildings at the district scale

Rapid electrification of buildings at the district scale is needed for cities to achieve climate change mitigation goals. However, most electrification studies focus on either the single building level or the city/region building stock level, and depend on the slow and uncertain process of requesting personally identifiable customer energy usage data from utilities. To answer a key question facing local policymakers: “Where can electrification proceed at scale without first upgrading the grid?” this study aims to quantify and inform building electrification impacts at the district scale using detailed building energy modeling and based on public records datasets. We explore how energy efficiency retrofits can help mitigate increased peak electric demand, and quantify impacts to energy use and carbon emissions. Building energy models of a baseline, and scenarios of simple electrification, energy retrofits, and electrification in combination with retrofits were created and simulated for 54 commercial buildings in two contiguous districts of San Francisco. A simple electrification scenario increased annual electricity consumption but reduced annual site energy usage by 15% to 17%, mainly due to replacing inefficient gas furnaces and boilers with more efficient heat pumps. Peak demand increased 7.4% for Fisherman's Wharf (e.g. within the capacity of the existing power grid), while the Design District showed a marginal decrease. Annual carbon emissions were reduced by 46% and 37%. Combining electrification with efficiency upgrades reduced peak demand by 26% and 40%, and annual carbon emissions by 63% and 64% for the two districts. Furthermore, these results indicate that impacts of electrification depend on the mix of building uses within a district, and coupling electrification with energy efficiency upgrades is an effective strategy to decarbonize buildings while maintaining or reducing the peak electric demand.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cooperation or Rivalry? Impact of alternative development pathways on India's long-term electricity generation and associated water demands

The world has witnessed a significant shift in the last decade in the way countries interact with each other. A cooperation based international paradigm is being challenged by countries engaging in rivalry with each other in the name of their national interests. What developmental pathway the world charts in the future is going to be path defining for global energy and emissions use. India, expected to play a critical role in the emissions mitigation debate, would contribute to and would be impacted by these pathways. In India specific literature, however, little attention has been paid to development pathways related uncertainties and their impact on energy futures. We seek to address this gap by modelling India's electricity futures and associated water demands under different development pathways. Our analysis shows that alternative development pathways would have significantly different implications for the energy access, electricity generation mix, associated water withdrawals, and carbon dioxide emissions in India. We conclude by arguing that energy, emissions and water policies should be conceived with an explicit understanding of uncertainties related to potential development pathways that the world and India can chart.

India, Electricity-Water Nexus, Development Pathwa↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimization-based trip chain emulation for electrified ride-sourcing charging demand analyses

Range anxiety remains one of the key concerns for ride-sourcing drivers to adopt battery electric vehicles (BEVs). To investigate the feasibility of using BEVs for ride-sourcing services, we propose an optimization-based methodology to estimate the daily driving trip patterns of ride-sourcing vehicles based on widely available non-identifiable trip data. Furthermore, we investigate the charging needs of electrified ride-sourcing vehicles using agent-based simulation. The methodologies are illustrated through a case study in the city of Chicago. Through sensitivity analysis on driver working hours and initial charging status, we quantify the range of daily average vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per car and identify the hot spots of current public charging demand and potential unsatisfied charging demand. This study can be used to determine the priorities of future charging infrastructure investment to further mitigate range anxiety and promote the adoption of electrified ride-sourcing services

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1987

A model for fully developed turbulence

A model for stationary, fully developed turbulence is presented in which the turbulent spectral energy function is completely determined once the time scale for the energy fed into the eddy interaction is known. The form of the eddy correlation time scale determining the turbulent viscosity is suggested by the basic equation of the model itself, up to a dimensionless constant that is fixed by demanding that the coefficient of the spectrum in the Heisenberg-Kolmogoroff inertial range of wavenunmbers be the experimental value. The model makes quantitative predictions that are compared with data on turbulent convection; the k-epsilon and Smagorinsky relations; the spectral function, transfer term, and dissipation term; the skewness factor; the Kolmogoroff and Batchelor constants; and the inertial-conductive and inertial-convective ranges.

Canuto, V. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

A New Era of Discovery: The 2023 Long-Range Plan for Nuclear Science (V.1.2)

Nuclear science is the investigation of how protons and neutrons are formed from elementary particles and how the forces between those particles produce both nuclei and the vast variety of nuclear phenomena that occur in the universe. It has evolved into a broad field that addresses profound scientific questions: Where does the mass of visible matter come from? How do stars ignite, live, and die? How do nuclei illuminate the search for new laws of nature? This science points the way to using nuclei to build new technologies that benefit society. The 2015 Nobel Prize in physics was shared by nuclear physicists Art McDonald and Takaaki Kajita for the discovery of neutrino oscillations, which confirmed that neutrinos have mass. Our progress on big questions like this one since 2015 has been remarkable owing to new experimental tools, theoretical breakthroughs, powerful computational techniques, and the talented people who make these innovations possible. Focusing on these new tools, the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) at Michigan State University is already producing exciting results on decays of never-before-produced isotopes a year after it was completed on time and on budget. The energy upgrade of the Continuous Electron Beam Accelerator Facility (CEBAF) at the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab) was also completed on schedule and on budget—new data from this facility are revealing the spectrum, structure, and dynamics of protons, neutrons, nuclei, and mesons. On the theory front, we can now calculate the distribution of quarks inside the proton from first principles. The implementation of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques has led to improved data analysis and increased efficiency in running experiments and theoretical calculations. The impact of nuclear science goes beyond expanding the frontiers of knowledge about matter in the universe. We simultaneously develop a STEM work force that advances the security, technology, health, and wealth of our nation. Some connections are obvious. Expert scientists trained to work with radioactive nuclei are in demand in nuclear security arenas and are highly sought after by various government agencies and private industries. Graduate students and postdoctoral fellows (postdocs) obtain extensive computational, modeling, and data science skills that are similarly in high demand. Less obvious but equally important is the connection between these trained scientists and success in other professions, including medicine, energy, and entrepreneurial pursuits. The workforce that enables discovery in nuclear science also makes breakthroughs in technologies with tremendous impact on the nation’s economic advancement.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Model for Optimally Allocating Curbside Space Among Competing Uses

The emergence of various new forms of urban mobility services in recent years is leading to new pressures on curbside space. Municipalities, the entities typically responsible for managing the curbside, are in many instances handling these growing pressures by reallocating portions of the curbside away from traditional uses (such as metered and residential parking) in favor of uses such as ridehailing, scooter and bike-share corrals. As yet, however, such actions are being undertaken on an ad-hoc basis, due to the rapidly growing complexity of the curbside and the lack of standard analytical approaches. This lack of analytical capability is due to the traditional focus of transportation network modeling being focused predominantly on the interaction of supply and demand on links and nodes, with limited focus on link edges (the curbside). In this paper we address this research need by proposing a framework for modeling inter-modal competition for curbside space, inspired by the classical Bid-Rent Model of urban land use, intended to support curb managers to move towards maximizing the aspects of economic welfare that relate to curb access. In the bi-level model, choices made by the curbside manager impact travelers’ mode choices, and vice versa. We then present a simple numerical case study to demonstrate the properties of the proposed model, showing its tractability, flexibility, and intuitive sensitivity to systematic variation in inputs. The framework demonstrates the type of adaptive and evolving approach needed to maximize benefits from increasingly dynamic curb management strategies. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of future research needs to advance this line of inquiry.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Value of Geothermal Energy Storage for Supply-Side and Demand-Side Applications

This report presents the results of a study examining the value potential for geothermal energy storage (GES), a long-duration energy storage resource that stores thermal and/or geomechanical energy in the subsurface. GES could benefit the overall U.S. power system by temporally shifting electricity generation (supply-side) or meeting building heating and cooling load (demand-side). This report analyzes supply-side and demand-side opportunities independently because of differences in applications and models. Currently there is significant uncertainty about the development costs for GES, with only a limited number of demonstration plants for electric energy storage and building heating and cooling storage developments. In this report, we estimate the value of supply-side and demand-side GES to the bulk power system in the contiguous United States. Because of the significant uncertainty about GES development costs, this analysis does not consider GES deployment costs but instead focuses on the value of GES to the U.S. electricity system. The estimated values of GES provide reference points for economically competitive commercial cost targets. Supply-side GES is modeled as part of an enhanced geothermal system (EGS) generation plant in NREL's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model (Ho et al. 2021). In contrast to conventional geothermal plants, which generate constant power, EGS plants have unique features that may allow for in-reservoir energy storage for flexible generation. Demand-side GES for heating and cooling, including seasonal hot and cold storage and short-duration heat pump storage, is incorporated into a price-taker model using Cambium electricity marginal cost projections. To establish an upper bound for the value of GES, analysis focused on favorable scenarios for storage with high generation from zero marginal cost, variable renewable energy resources. High penetrations of variable renewable energy generation can increase hourly electricity price variability, which increases the value of temporal energy arbitrage for storage technologies like GES.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Computational Models of Human Performance: Validation of Memory and Procedural Representation in Advanced Air/Ground Simulation

The Man-Machine Interaction Design and Analysis System (MIDAS) under joint U.S. Army and NASA cooperative is intended to assist designers of complex human/automation systems in successfully incorporating human performance capabilities and limitations into decision and action support systems. MIDAS is a computational representation of multiple human operators, selected perceptual, cognitive, and physical functions of those operators, and the physical/functional representation of the equipment with which they operate. MIDAS has been used as an integrated predictive framework for the investigation of human/machine systems, particularly in situations with high demands on the operators. We have extended the human performance models to include representation of both human operators and intelligent aiding systems in flight management, and air traffic service. The focus of this development is to predict human performance in response to aiding system developed to identify aircraft conflict and to assist in the shared authority for resolution. The demands of this application requires representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, coordinating action/intention, and cooperative scheduling of goals and action in an somewhat unpredictable world of operations. In recent applications to airborne systems development, MIDAS has demonstrated an ability to predict flight crew decision-making and procedural behavior when interacting with automated flight management systems and Air Traffic Control. In this paper, we describe two enhancements to MIDAS. The first involves the addition of working memory in the form of an articulatory buffer for verbal communication protocols and a visuo-spatial buffer for communications via digital datalink. The second enhancement is a representation of multiple operators working as a team. This enhanced model was used to predict the performance of human flight crews and their level of compliance with commercial aviation communication procedures. We show how the data produced by MIDAS compares with flight crew performance data from full mission simulations. Finally, we discuss the use of these features to study communication issues connected with aircraft-based separation assurance.

Corker, Kevin M.↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Robust Segmented Mixed Effect Regression Model for Baseline Electricity Consumption Forecasting

Renewable energy production has been surging around the world in recent years. To mitigate the increasing uncertainty and intermittency of the renewable generation, proactive demand response algorithms and programs are proposed and developed to further improve the utilization of load flexibility and increase the efficiency of power system operation. One of the biggest challenges to efficient control and operation of demand response resources is how to forecast the baseline electricity consumption and estimate the load impact from demand response resources accurately. In this paper, we propose a mixed effect segmented regression model and a new robust estimate for forecasting the baseline electricity consumption in Southern California, USA, by combining the ideas of random effect regression model, segmented regression model, and the least trimmed squares estimate. Since the log-likelihood of the considered model is not differentiable at breakpoints, we propose a new backfitting algorithm to estimate the unknown parameters. The estimation performance of the new estimation procedure has been demonstrated with both simulation studies and the real data application for the electric load baseline forecasting in Southern California.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evolving Electricity Supply and Demand to Achieve Net-Zero Emissions: Insights from the EMF-37 Study

This paper explores the role of electricity in achieving economy-wide net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 in the United States based on results from 17 models as part of the 37th Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-37). In the study's Net-Zero scenario, the models use diverse pathways to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, with gross energy-related residual emissions ranging from 17.2 to 66.6 % of 2020 levels. Electricity consistently emerges as central to achieving net-zero, with models projecting rapid electrification of end-uses and rapidly declining CO2 intensity of electricity. However, the extent of electrification and the technology mix to decarbonize the power sector vary considerably across models. In the Net-Zero scenario, electricity is projected to evolve from ~20 % of final energy in 2020 to 17-63 % in 2050 across the models driven by electrification in all sectors-buildings, industry, and transportation-and, to a lesser extent by direct air capture. By 2050, total electricity consumption increases by 24-176 % (relative to 2020), accompanied by significant expansion in renewable electricity production. Together, solar and wind generation grows by 175-834 %, supplying 45-90 % of total electricity in 2050, with wind achieving slightly higher shares than solar. Electricity storage technologies are deployed at scale to support wind and solar generation. The electricity generation mix varies across models: some project almost complete reliance on renewables, while others see a substantial role for natural gas, often with carbon capture and storage. This paper synthesizes the rich diversity of modeling approaches and results, highlighting differing views on how key drivers of electricity demand and supply might evolve.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗