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At least 829 records · Page 46

Informing Disaster Response through Earth Observation: A User-Centric Model for Enhancing Disaster Response Using Geospatial Assets

Satellite observations can provide critical insights to building situational awareness and filling data gaps during disaster response. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Science Division’s Disasters Program aims to advance Earth science data and information to support management decisions that prevent or mitigate the impacts of disasters. In support of this goal, NASA’s Disasters Response Coordination System (DRCS) employs a “One NASA” approach to coordinate and mobilize the Agency’s assets and expertise to provide geospatial information during disasters. The DRCS advances the utility of Earth observation information for supporting disaster response needs and builds skills in the emergency management and disaster response communities through improved coordination, engagement, and learning. The DRCS aims to support reduction of impact to lives and livelihoods by empowering communities to more effectively respond to disasters. The DRCS is organized across six NASA centers and managed by a project office located at NASA Langley, working in alignment with NASA Headquarters. The DRCS employs a user-centered framework that begins with requests from disaster responders (state, local, federal government and non-profits working at a national scale) and ends with after-action assessments that feed lessons learned and process improvements. This poster introduces the DRCS model and approach to expanding the use of Earth observations and geospatial information to support disaster response, share use cases for recent event activations working with decision-making organizations, and highlight initial lessons learned.

Remote Sensing↗

Vendor-Independent Design Requirements for a Boiling Water Reactor Safety System Upgrade

This Vendor-Independent License Amendment Request (LAR) Framework Document is a research product developed for the Idaho National Laboratory Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program. It was developed by MPR Associates, Inc. with technical input from LWRS and Exelon Generation personnel. To accomplish the purpose of this research, an operating plant (Limerick Generating Station [LGS]) was used as a reference to provide a concrete example and to present a "top-down" view of design concepts consistent with functional requirements baseline documents (references X and Y) also developed for this research. While this document is written in a framework to support a complete LAR submittal, its purpose is to communicate research concepts and provide an example of how to present digital information necessary to address expectations with regard to leveraging the Alternate Review Process as provided in Digital Instrumentation and Controls Interim Staff Guidance #06, Revision 2, Licensing Process. To leverage that process, this research document presupposes that a utility would select a vendor platform which has been prequalified for safety-related by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission. While this document is written using the Exelon Generation Limerick Generating Station (LGS) Units 1 and 2 as a baseline, this document is a research product. This document contains no commitments and makes no binding design decisions for Exelon Generation. Exelon Generation is leveraging this research to support their in-progress LGS Plant Protection System (PPS) upgrade efforts and plans to leverage it for their Redundant Reactor Control System (RRCS) replacement. The LWRS Program appreciates the research support provided by Exelon Generation in the generation of this document.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Get the Power You Need, When and Where You Need It Aboard the International Space Station (ISS) Using the ISS Plug-In Plan (IPiP) Requirement Request Process

Trying to get your experiment aboard ISS? You likely will need power. Many enditem providers do. ISS Plug-In Plan (IPiP) supports power and data for science, Payloads (or Utilization), vehicle systems, and daily operations through the Electrical Power System (EPS) Secondary Power/Data Subsystem. Yet limited resources and increasing requirements continue to influence decisions on deployment of ISS end items. Given the fluid launch schedule and the rapidly- increasing number of end item providers requiring power support, the focus of the Plug-In Plan has evolved from a simple FIFO recommendation to provide power to end item users, to anticipating future requirements by judicious development and delivery of support equipment (cables, power supplies, power strips, and alternating current (AC) power inverters), employing innovative deployment strategies, and collaborating on end item development. This paper describes the evolution of the ISS Program Office, Engineering Directorate, Flight Operations Directorate (FOD), International Partners and the end item provider relationship and how collaboration successfully leverages unique requirements with limited on- board equipment and resources, tools and processes which result in more agile integration, and describes the process designed for the new ISS end item provider to assure that their power requirements will be met.

Moore, Kevin D.↗

An Integrated Reliability and Physics-Based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems

This paper presents an integrated reliability and physics-based risk modeling approach for assessing human spaceflight systems. The approach is demonstrated using an example, end-to-end risk assessment of a generic-crewed space transportation system during a reference mission to the International Space Station. The behavior of the system is modeled using analysis techniques from multiple disciplines in order to properly capture the dynamic time- and state- dependent consequences of failures encountered in different mission phases. We discuss how to combine traditional reliability analyses with Monte Carlo simulation methods and physics-based engineering models to produce loss-of- mission and loss-of-crew risk estimates supporting risk-based decision-making and requirement verification. This approach facilitates risk-informed design by providing more realistic representation of system failures and interactions; identifying key risk-driving sensitivities, dependencies, and assumptions; and tracking multiple figures of merit within a single, responsive assessment framework that can readily incorporate evolving design information throughout system development.

Risk assessment↗

Multi-parametric analysis for mixed integer linear programming: An application to transmission upgrade and congestion management

Upgrading the capacity of existing transmission lines is essential for meeting the growing energy demands, facilitating the integration of renewable energy, and ensuring the security of the transmission system. This study focuses on the selection of lines whose capacities and by how much should be expanded from the perspective of the Independent System Operators (ISOs) to minimize the total system cost. We employ advanced multi-parametric programming and an enhanced branch-and-bound algorithm to address complex mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems, considering multi-period time constraints and physical limitations of generators and transmission lines. To characterize the various decisions in transmission expansion, we model the increased capacity of existing lines as parameters within a specified range. This study first relaxes the binary variables to continuous variables and applies the Lagrange method and Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) conditions to obtain optimal solutions and identify critical regions associated with active and inactive constraints. Moreover, we extend the traditional branch-and-bound (B&B) method by determining the problem’s upper and lower bounds at each node of the B&B decision tree, helping to manage computational challenges in large-scale MILP problems. Here, we compare the difference between the upper and lower bounds to obtain an approximate optimal solution within the decision-makers’ tolerable error range. In addition, the first derivative of the objective function on the parameters of each line is used to inform the selection of lines for easing congestion and maximizing social welfare. Finally, the capacity upgrades are selected by weighing the reductions in system costs against the expense of upgrading line capacities. The findings are supported by numerical simulations and provide transmission-line planners with decision-making guidance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Transportation and System Analysis Collaborations in Support of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Integrated Waste Management (IWM) program under the Office of Nuclear Energy is planning for the future transportation, storage, and eventual disposal of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) and high-level radioactive waste (HLW) from nuclear power plant and waste custodian sites across the United States. To better enable informed decision-making regarding the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the IWM program has been sponsoring the development and application of system analysis tools capable of analyzing various options for managing SNF and HLW. With these tools, integrated waste management system (IWMS) architecture analyses are being conducted to support the future deployment of a comprehensive nuclear waste management system that considers all major back-end aspects of the nuclear fuel cycle (i.e., transportation, storage, and disposal). System analyses and assessments typically use these modeling and simulation tools to investigate implications of changes in various assumptions and parameters such as acceptance rates, receipt logic, facility capacities and capabilities, use of standardized canisters, start and stop dates of facilities, etc. The Next Generation System Analysis Model (NGSAM) is an agent-based simulation toolkit that is used for a system-level simulation and analysis focused on SNF management in the United States. NGSAM’s primary purpose is to provide a system analyst with capabilities to model the IWMS and gain insights into SNF and HLW management alternatives including the impact of system choices, associated cost estimates, and development of integrated yet flexible approaches. An analyst using NGSAM can define several factors like the number of storage facilities, capacity at each facility, transportation schedules, shipment rates, and other conditions. IWM is also developing the Stakeholder Tool for Assessing Radioactive Transportation (START). START is a web-based geospatial tool developed to provide the visualization and initial evaluation of transportation options associated with future SNF and HLW shipment planning and operations. This includes characterizing safety, economic, and environmental conditions at and in proximity to shipment origins as well as along prospective transportation routes. Information from the START tool can be presented/shared as maps, graphics, geospatial files, and tabular form to enable easy data representation and export functionality. The system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams have been working closely for several years before formalizing this collaboration. START provides the SNF transportation routing information for use in NGSAM. System analysts use the NGSAM tool to generate results (schedule, costs, infrastructure acquisitions, shipment rates, etc.). Subject-matter experts and system analysts work together to inform how NGSAM should model the waste management system. Specifically, this paper discusses the collaborations between the system analysis, NGSAM, and START teams and their accomplishments over the past year. Some examples of these efforts include calibrating and adding data to the START output files to meet NGSAM needs, gaining a better understanding of START data used in NGSAM as well as how updates in START data could result in an improved NGSAM analysis. Detailed examples of various tasks that have been performed by the team will be discussed in the full paper. Continued efforts in this direction are expected in the coming years.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Performance of a Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstem (DAISY) for characterizing radiated noise from marine energy converters

Marine energy converters can generate electricity from energetic ocean waves and water currents. Because sound is extensively used by marine animals, the radiated noise from these systems is of regulatory interest. However, the energetic nature of these locations poses challenges for performing accurate passive acoustic measurements, particularly with stationary platforms. The Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstem (DAISY) is a modular hydrophone recording system purpose-built for marine energy environments. Using a flow shield in currents and mass–spring–damper suspension system in waves, we demonstrate that DAISYs can effectively minimize the masking effect of flow noise at frequencies down to 10 Hz. In addition, we show that groups of DAISYs can utilize time-delay-of-arrival post-processing to attribute radiated noise to a specific source. Consequently, DAISYs can rapidly measure radiated noise at all frequencies of interest for prototype marine energy converters. Furthermore, the resulting information from future operational deployments should support regulatory decision-making and allow technology developers to make design adjustments that minimize the potential for acoustic impacts as their systems are scaled up for utility-scale power generation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗

Integrating the Mobility Energy Productivity Metric Into the Delaware Department of Transportation Statewide Model

The Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric quantifies the quality of mobility at a given location and evaluates how changes in the transportation system impact mobility over time, such as through infrastructure investments. This study demonstrates the integration of the MEP metric into the Delaware Department of Transportation's (DelDOT's) transportation planning process by utilizing data from its statewide travel demand model. Specifically, the study assesses MEP for the 2020 baseline conditions and three alternative scenarios - 2030, Churchman, and Old Orchard - across multiple travel modes, including driving, walking, biking, and transit. The findings highlight that mobility and accessibility in Delaware are primarily supported by the driving mode, while transit services remain relatively limited, often ranking below biking and walking in many areas. In the 2030 scenario, where network operations and opportunities expand as projected, overall statewide accessibility declines, although Kent and Sussex counties experience improvements. The results from the Churchman and Old Orchard scenarios indicate that local network enhancements can positively influence accessibility, though primarily at a localized level, demonstrating MEP's capability to capture regional accessibility changes. Further, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory team successfully transferred MEP operational knowledge to the DelDOT team through dockerization, enabling DelDOT to independently run MEP for various scenarios of interest. Integrating MEP into DelDOT's planning framework supports future project evaluations and decision-making by incorporating access to opportunities as a key dimension of transportation system assessment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Aeronautical Communications Research and Development Needs for Future Air Traffic Management Applications

Continuing growth in regional and global air travel has resulted in increasing traffic congestion in the air and on the ground. In spite of occasional temporary downturns due to economic recessions and catastrophic events, average growth rates of air travel have remained high since the 1960s. The resulting congestion, which constrains expansion of the air transportation industry, inflicts schedule delays and decreases overall system efficiency, creating a pressing need to develop more efficient methods of air traffic management (ATM). New ATM techniques, procedures, air space automation methods, and decision support tools are being researched and developed for deployment in time frames stretching from the next few years to the year 2020 and beyond. As these methods become more advanced and increase in complexity, the requirements for information generation, sharing and transfer among the relevant entities in the ATM system increase dramatically. However, current aeronautical communications systems will be inadequate to meet the future information transfer demands created by these advanced ATM systems. Therefore, the NASA Glenn Research Center is undertaking research programs to develop communication, methods and key technologies that can meet these future requirements. As part of this process, studies, workshops, testing and experimentation, and research and analysis have established a number of research and technology development needs. The purpose of this paper is to outline the critical research and technology needs that have been identified in these activities, and explain how these needs have been determined.

Kerczewski, Robert J.↗

Human factors and information transfer

Key problem areas in the management and transfer of information in the National Airspace System, contributing to human errors are identified. Information-management aspects supporting the user's ability to assess prevailing situations accurately with adequate time to make an informed decision are considered. The relationship between judgment biases and requirements for managing weather information is illustrated by examining such hazardous weather phenomena as microbursts and windshears. The system of air-ground communication relying almost exclusively on voice transmissions is discussed, and recommendations in the areas of communications procedures and technology development are provided.

Lee, Alfred T.↗

Survival analysis of localized prostate cancer with deep learning

In recent years, data-driven, deep-learning-based models have shown great promise in medical risk prediction. By utilizing the large-scale Electronic Health Record data found in the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs, the largest integrated healthcare system in the United States, we have developed an automated, personalized risk prediction model to support the clinical decision-making process for localized prostate cancer patients. This method combines the representative power of deep learning and the analytical interpretability of parametric regression models and can implement both time-dependent and static input data. To collect a comprehensive evaluation of model performances, we calculate time-dependent C-statistics C td over 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizons using either a composite outcome or prostate cancer mortality as the target event. The composite outcome combines the Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) test, metastasis, and prostate cancer mortality. Our longitudinal model Recurrent Deep Survival Machine (RDSM) achieved C td 0.85 (0.83), 0.80 (0.83), and 0.76 (0.81), while the cross-sectional model Deep Survival Machine (DSM) attained C td 0.85 (0.82), 0.80 (0.82), and 0.76 (0.79) for the 2-, 5-, and 10-year composite (mortality) outcomes, respectively. In addition to estimating the survival probability, our method can quantify the uncertainty associated with the prediction. The uncertainty scores show a consistent correlation with the prediction accuracy. We find PSA and prostate cancer stage information are the most important indicators in risk prediction. Our work demonstrates the utility of the data-driven machine learning model in prostate cancer risk prediction, which can play a critical role in the clinical decision system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Sensor Data Qualification for Autonomous Operation of Space Systems

NASA's new Exploration initiative for both robotic and manned missions will require higher levels of reliability, autonomy and reconfiguration capability to make the missions safe, successful and affordable. Future systems will require diagnostic reasoning to assess the health of the system in order to maintain the system s functionality. The diagnostic reasoning and assessment will involve data qualification, fault detection, fault isolation and remediation control. A team of researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center is currently working on a Sensor Data Qualification (SDQ) system that will support these critical evaluation processes, for both automated and human-in-the-loop applications. Data qualification is required as a first step so that critical safety and operational decisions are based on good data. The SDQ system would monitor a network of related sensors to determine the health of individual sensors within that network. Various diagnostic systems such as the Caution and Warning System would then use the sensor health information with confidence. The proposed SDQ technology will be demonstrated on a variety of subsystems that are relevant to NASA s Exploration systems, which currently include an electrical power system and a cryogenic fluid management system. The focus of this paper is the development and demonstration of a SDQ application for a prototype power distribution unit that is representative of a Crew Exploration Vehicle electrical power system; this provides a unique and relevant environment in which to demonstrate the feasibility of the SDQ technology.

Maul, William A.↗

New Approaches in Reusable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model and use genetic algorithms to explore results. A strong business case occurs when viable paths are identified for an affordable up-front investment, and these paths can credibly achieve affordable, responsive operations, characterized by smaller direct touch labor efforts at the wing level from flight to flight. The results supporting this approach, its potential, and its conclusions are presented here.

Zapata, Edgar↗

New Approaches in Reuseable Booster System Life Cycle Cost Modeling

This paper presents the results of a 2012 life cycle cost (LCC) study of hybrid Reusable Booster Systems (RBS) conducted by NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL). The work included the creation of a new cost estimating model and an LCC analysis, building on past work where applicable, but emphasizing the integration of new approaches in life cycle cost estimation. Specifically, the inclusion of industry processes/practices and indirect costs were a new and significant part of the analysis. The focus of LCC estimation has traditionally been from the perspective of technology, design characteristics, and related factors such as reliability. Technology has informed the cost related support to decision makers interested in risk and budget insight. This traditional emphasis on technology occurs even though it is well established that complex aerospace systems costs are mostly about indirect costs, with likely only partial influence in these indirect costs being due to the more visible technology products. Organizational considerations, processes/practices, and indirect costs are traditionally derived ("wrapped") only by relationship to tangible product characteristics. This traditional approach works well as long as it is understood that no significant changes, and by relation no significant improvements, are being pursued in the area of either the government acquisition or industry?s indirect costs. In this sense then, most launch systems cost models ignore most costs. The alternative was implemented in this LCC study, whereby the approach considered technology and process/practices in balance, with as much detail for one as the other. This RBS LCC study has avoided point-designs, for now, instead emphasizing exploring the trade-space of potential technology advances joined with potential process/practice advances. Given the range of decisions, and all their combinations, it was necessary to create a model of the original model and use genetic algorithms to explore results. A strong business case occurs when viable paths are identified for an affordable up-front investment, and these paths can credibly achieve affordable, responsive operations, characterized by smaller direct touch labor efforts at the wing level from flight to flight. The results supporting this approach, its potential, and its conclusions are presented here.

Zapata, Edgar↗

ISERV Pathfinder. The ISS SERVIR Environmental Research and Visualization System

SERVIR integrates Earth observations (e.g., space imagery), predictive models, and in situ data to provide timely information products to support environmental decision makers. ISERV propoesed development -- ISERV-W: Internal Visible/Near-Infrared (VNIR), attached to ISS via Window Observational Research Facility (WORF), ISERV-E: External Visible/Broad-Infrared (V/IR) and ISERV-PM: External Passive Microwave.

Howell, Burgess↗

An Integrated Decision-Making Model for Categorizing Weather Products and Decision Aids

The National Airspace System s capacity will experience considerable growth in the next few decades. Weather adversely affects safe air travel. The FAA and NASA are working to develop new technologies that display weather information to support situation awareness and optimize pilot decision-making in avoiding hazardous weather. Understanding situation awareness and naturalistic decision-making is an important step in achieving this goal. Information representation and situation time stress greatly influence attentional resource allocation and working memory capacity, potentially obstructing accurate situation awareness assessments. Three naturalistic decision-making theories were integrated to provide an understanding of the levels of decision making incorporated in three operational situations and two conditions. The task characteristics associated with each phase of flight govern the level of situation awareness attained and the decision making processes utilized. Weather product s attributes and situation task characteristics combine to classify weather products according to the decision-making processes best supported. In addition, a graphical interface is described that affords intuitive selection of the appropriate weather product relative to the pilot s current flight situation.

Elgin, Peter D.↗

NASA Earth Observations Informing Renewable Energy Management and Policy Decision Making

The NASA Applied Sciences Program partners with domestic and international governmental organizations, universities, and private entities to improve their decisions and assessments. These improvements are enabled by using the knowledge generated from research resulting from spacecraft observations and model predictions conducted by NASA and providing these as inputs to the decision support and scenario assessment tools used by partner organizations. The Program is divided into eight societal benefit areas, aligned in general with the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) themes. The Climate Application of the Applied Sciences Program has as one of its focuses, efforts to provide for improved decisions and assessments in the areas of renewable energy technologies, energy efficiency, and climate change impacts. The goals of the Applied Sciences Program are aligned with national initiatives such as the U.S. Climate Change Science and Technology Programs and with those of international organizations including the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). Activities within the Program are funded principally through proposals submitted in response to annual solicitations and reviewed by peers.

Eckman, Richard S.↗