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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

Streamlining and Transparently Automating Complex Waste Determinations at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 17286

Environmental programs at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) generate a large amount of sampling activities that can result in waste that needs to be characterized and properly disposed. Since 2011, sampling results are managed in the cloud-based Environmental Information Management (EIM) database, which contains over 16 million current and historical data records. In many cases, the database's analytical records are used to characterize and dispose waste from environmental operations. Three factors contribute to streamlining of the waste disposition operations: (1) if possible, use of the existing analytical data for waste characterization to avoid additional laboratory analysis; (2) reduction in time spent on data evaluation for various waste acceptance criteria; and (3) choice of the proper and least expensive disposal alternative. Use of the existing analytical data, when allowed by law, creates some paradoxical problems: when chemical analysis is requested with the purpose of characterizing waste, it creates only 100 to 400 analytical records. However, use of exiting analytical data at LANL may lead to evaluation of tens of thousands of analytical records, with many records for each single analyte. This occurs because data were collected for environmental characterization and not waste characterization. To streamline data analysis for waste disposition using existing data, LANL has created a Waste Data Summary (WDS) module in the site's EIM database. Recognizing that waste determination is performed by groups outside the environmental program at LANL, the WDS allows for logically guided data selection for a specific waste determination (solids, liquids, radiological, etc.) and reduces potentially thousands of rows of data into simple formatted data reports that are easy to comprehend and process. This allows the waste evaluators to review data using multiple approaches to make their own determination on the most appropriate disposal method. There are four basic principles of WDS operation: (1) The highest detected analytical result is evaluated for the selected samples (or the lowest undetected result if there are no detected results); (2) All approved disposal pathways are evaluated; (3) Any failures of the Waste Acceptance Criteria are visibly highlighted to focus the attention of the evaluator; and (4) The decision of the disposal path is left to the trained waste evaluator (WDS does not choose or suggest any disposal paths). The summary results are presented as the set of short data reports. These reports can be divided into two groups: general comparison reports and disposal pathway specific forms. The general comparison forms show all Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) analytes with pass/fail evaluation and with preference for toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) results (or 20x rule) for solid samples, the potential RCRA hazard codes assignment for detected analytes, and all rad results. The detected chemical and radioactivity results are compared to the background values and to Soil Screening and Soil Action limits (SSL/SAL limits). Disposal pathway specific forms follow Waste Acceptance Criteria requirements for all disposal pathways available at LANL. The programming of the WDS tries to maximize existing data by analyte substitutions (like using gross alpha for necessary alpha emitting isotopes) or by making calculations when analytical results do not agree with legal requirements (like total chlordane in the RCRA regulations, which is most often analyzed and reported as individual isomers). All forms may be annotated by the waste evaluator to provide additional information to support decision making. Upon final decision of a disposal path, the complete dataset used in the evaluation and the WDS forms with annotations is 'frozen' as an un-editable PDF export to document the data used in the waste disposal determination. The streamlined process results in less work for waste evaluators and reduces overall labor and analytical costs. By comparison, a full review of a 10,000 record parent dataset may take a waste evaluator over a week to review, whereas with the WDS module, the task can be accomplished in less than one hour with clear, reproducible results. These results can be reviewed and checked at any time by quality assurance personnel, thus ensuring transparency in the decision making process. LANL believes this approach has broad applicability to other sites where waste determination is based on review of existing data collected for more generalized environmental purposes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2015

IMPROVING COSMOLOGICAL DISTANCE MEASUREMENTS USING TWIN TYPE IA SUPERNOVAE

We introduce a method for identifying “twin” Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) and using them to improve distance measurements. This novel approach to SN Ia standardization is made possible by spectrophotometric time series observations from the Nearby Supernova Factory (SNfactory). We begin with a well-measured set of SNe, find pairs whose spectra match well across the entire optical window, and then test whether this leads to a smaller dispersion in their absolute brightnesses. This analysis is completed in a blinded fashion, ensuring that decisions made in implementing the method do not inadvertently bias the result. We find that pairs of SNe with more closely matched spectra indeed have reduced brightness dispersion. We are able to standardize this initial set of SNfactory SNe to 0.083 ± 0.012 mag, implying a dispersion of 0.072 ± 0.010 mag in the absence of peculiar velocities. We estimate that with larger numbers of comparison SNe, e.g., using the final SNfactory spectrophotometric data set as a reference, this method will be capable of standardizing high-redshift SNe to within 0.06–0.07 mag. These results imply that at least 3/4 of the variance in Hubble residuals in current SN cosmology analyses is due to previously unaccounted-for astrophysical differences among the SNe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Looking under the hood: A comparison of techno-economic assumptions across national and global integrated assessment models

Integrated assessment models are extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation and are informing national decision makers as well as contribute to international assessments such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This paper conducts a comprehensive review of techno-economic assumptions in the electricity sector among sixteen different global and national integrated assessment models. Particular focus is given to six major economies in the world: Brazil, China, the EU, India, Japan and the US. The comparison reveals that techno-economic characteristics are quite different across integrated assessment models, both for the base year and future years. It is, however, important to recognize that techno-economic assessments from the literature exhibit an equally large range of parameters as the integrated assessment models reviewed. Beyond numerical differences, the representation of technologies also differs among models which needs to be taken into account when comparing numerical parameters. While desirable from a first principles perspective and often called for, it seems difficult to fully harmonize techno-economic parameters across a broader range of models due to structural differences in the representation of technology. Therefore, in the future making techno-economic parameters available together with of the technology representation as well as the exact definitions of the parameters should become the standard approach as it allows an open discussion of appropriate assumptions.

Krey, Volker↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Privacy First Path Analysis using Clickstream Data

In the modern digital economy, data-driven decision making is crucial for effectively meeting the ever-evolving demands of consumer engagement and satisfaction. Clickstream data has become invaluable for understanding customer behavior, yet concerns over privacy and security persist, especially with some internet service providers profiting from its sale. This article introduces an innovative methodology that blends experiential learning with advanced cryptographic techniques, including differential privacy and graph analytics. The core objective of this methodology is to estimate Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) by analyzing clickstream data, achieving an average prediction accuracy of 92.4% in user engagement levels while ensuring user anonymity through Recency, Frequency, and Monetary (RFM) analysis. Our study introduces the concept of a “data depositor” and a privacy manager, employing the composition theorem to merge non-adaptive queries effectively. Privacy budgets (? = 1.0, d = 10-5), sensitivity-specific techniques, and data partitioning were applied. Randomization and noise addition protect data integrity, with special handling for categorical values. This approach, differing from prior studies, offers a 12.6% improvement in privacy-preserving targeting accuracy while maintaining strict confidentiality, presenting a novel path forward in data-driven decision-making.

Frequency and Monetary (RFM) analysis↗
NASA NTRS2016

Evaluation of Contamination Inspection and Analysis Methods through Modeling System Performance

Contamination is usually identified as a risk on the risk register for sensitive space systems hardware. Despite detailed, time-consuming, and costly contamination control efforts during assembly, integration, and test of space systems, contaminants are still found during visual inspections of hardware. Improved methods are needed to gather information during systems integration to catch potential contamination issues earlier and manage contamination risks better. This research explores evaluation of contamination inspection and analysis methods to determine optical system sensitivity to minimum detectable molecular contamination levels based on IEST-STD-CC1246E non-volatile residue (NVR) cleanliness levels. Potential future degradation of the system is modeled given chosen modules representative of optical elements in an optical system, minimum detectable molecular contamination levels for a chosen inspection and analysis method, and determining the effect of contamination on the system. By modeling system performance based on when molecular contamination is detected during systems integration and at what cleanliness level, the decision maker can perform trades amongst different inspection and analysis methods and determine if a planned method is adequate to meet system requirements and manage contamination risk.

Seasly, Elaine↗
DOE OSTI2018

An Approach to Uncertainty Identification in the Valuation of Transactive Energy Systems

Valuation of transactive energy (TE) systems should be supported by a structured and systematic approach to uncertainty identification, assessment, and treatment in the interest of risk-informed decision making. The proposed approach, a variation of fault tree analysis, is anticipated to support valuation analysts in analyzing conventional and transactive system scenarios. This approach allows for expanding the entire tree up to the level of minute details or collapsing them to a level sufficient enough to get an overview of the problem. Quantification scheme for the described approach lends itself for valuation. The method complements value exchange analysis, simulation, and field demonstration studies. The practicality of the proposed approach is demonstrated through uncertainty assessment of the smart grid interoperability panel peak heat day scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Movement Motivations, Demand, and Inflow-Outflow Dynamics in Four Cities (New York, Chicago, Austin, and San Diego) During COVID-19: Preprint

COVID-19 has impacted human activities ranging from food delivery habits to major moving and travel decisions. It’s clear that multiple pandemic-related factors have influenced millions of relocation decisions by Americans (e.g. health risk, financial pressures, more space, employment). There are positive economic and social outcomes of this influence (e.g. remote work and education) enabling more affordable living and opportunity. This paper addresses COVID-19 impacts on mobility, especially the mobility that involves permanent relocation from place to place. Survey design and data analysis with U-Haul targeted customers in Austin, New York, San Diego, and Chicago to understand mobility, new moving dynamics, and motivations.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Flat-plate solar array project. Volume 8: Project analysis and integration

Project Analysis and Integration (PA&I) performed planning and integration activities to support management of the various Flat-Plate Solar Array (FSA) Project R&D activities. Technical and economic goals were established by PA&I for each R&D task within the project to coordinate the thrust toward the National Photovoltaic Program goals. A sophisticated computer modeling capability was developed to assess technical progress toward meeting the economic goals. These models included a manufacturing facility simulation, a photovoltaic power station simulation and a decision aid model incorporating uncertainty. This family of analysis tools was used to track the progress of the technology and to explore the effects of alternative technical paths. Numerous studies conducted by PA&I signaled the achievement of milestones or were the foundation of major FSA project and national program decisions. The most important PA&I activities during the project history are summarized. The PA&I planning function is discussed and how it relates to project direction and important analytical models developed by PA&I for its analytical and assessment activities are reviewed.

Mcguire, P.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Developing an Interactive Data Visualization Tool to Assess the Impact of Decision Support on Clinical Operations

Due to mandates from recent legislation, clinical decision support (CDS) software is being adopted by radiology practices across the country. This software provides imaging study decision support for referring providers at the point of order entry. CDS systems produce a large volume of data, providing opportunities for research and quality improvement. In order to better visualize and analyze trends in this data, an interactive data visualization dashboard was created using a commercially available data visualization platform. Following the integration of a commercially available clinical decision support product into the electronic health record, a dashboard was created using a commercially available data visualization platform (Tableau, Seattle, WA). Data generated by the CDS were exported from the data warehouse, where they were stored, into the platform. This allowed for real-time visualization of the data generated by the decision support software. The creation of the dashboard allowed the output from the CDS platform to be more easily analyzed and facilitated hypothesis generation. Integrating data visualization tools into clinical decision support tools allows for easier data analysis and can streamline research and quality improvement efforts.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2016

Occupancy data analytics and prediction: A case study

Occupants are a critical impact factor of building energy consumption. Numerous previous studies emphasized the role of occupants and investigated the interactions between occupants and buildings. However, a fundamental problem, how to learn occupancy patterns and predict occupancy schedule, has not been well addressed due to highly stochastic activities of occupants and insufficient data. This study proposes a data mining based approach for occupancy schedule learning and prediction in office buildings. The proposed approach first recognizes the patterns of occupant presence by cluster analysis, then learns the schedule rules by decision tree, and finally predicts the occupancy schedules based on the inducted rules. A case study was conducted in an office building in Philadelphia, U.S. Based on one-year observed data, the validation results indicate that the proposed approach significantly improves the accuracy of occupancy schedule prediction. The proposed approach only requires simple input data (i.e., the time series data of occupant number entering and exiting a building), which is available in most office buildings. Furthermore, this approach is practical to facilitate occupancy schedule prediction, building energy simulation and facility operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2017

An approach to and web-based tool for infectious disease outbreak intervention analysis

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death globally. Decisions surrounding how to control an infectious disease outbreak currently rely on a subjective process involving surveillance and expert opinion. However, there are many situations where neither may be available. Modeling can fill gaps in the decision making process by using available data to provide quantitative estimates of outbreak trajectories. Effective reduction of the spread of infectious diseases can be achieved through collaboration between the modeling community and public health policy community. However, such collaboration is rare, resulting in a lack of models that meet the needs of the public health community. Here we show a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model modified to include control measures that allows parameter ranges, rather than parameter point estimates, and includes a web user interface for broad adoption. We apply the model to three diseases, measles, norovirus and influenza, to show the feasibility of its use and describe a research agenda to further promote interactions between decision makers and the modeling community.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Acoustic detection of cracks in the anvil of a large-volume cubic high-pressure apparatus

A large-volume cubic high-pressure apparatus with three pairs of tungsten carbide anvils is the most popular device for synthetic diamond production. Currently, the consumption of anvils is one of the important costs for the diamond production industry. If one of the anvils is fractured during the production process, the other five anvils in the apparatus may be endangered as a result of a sudden loss of pressure. It is of critical importance to detect and replace cracked anvils before they fracture for reduction of the cost of diamond production and safety. An acoustic detection method is studied in this paper. Two new features, nested power spectrum centroid and modified power spectrum variance, are proposed and combined with linear prediction coefficients to construct a feature vector. A support vector machine model is trained for classification. A sliding time window is proposed for decision-level information fusion. The experiments and analysis show that the recognition rate of anvil cracks is 95%, while the false-alarm rate is as low as 5.8 × 10{sup −4} during a time window; this false-alarm rate indicates that at most one false alarm occurs every 2 months at a confidence level of 90%. An instrument to monitor anvil cracking was designed based on a digital signal processor and has been running for more than eight months in a diamond production field. In this time, two anvil-crack incidents occurred and were detected by the instrument correctly. In addition, no false alarms occurred.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

How data science methods can improve the quality and efficiency of ICF and HEDP research

Data Science methods (many that are Bayesian based) are widely used in the physical sciences to estimate model parameters from experimental data, synthesize heterogeneous data, calibrate models, design experiments, and determine statistical significance of data. These methods provide a wealth of advantages over traditional analysis techniques because: 1) uncertainties are rigorously defined and propagated naturally through complex systems including covariance, 2) prior information is captured within the analysis framework (including rad-MHD and rad-hydro simulations), 3) competing models can be selected and/or ruled out using quantitative criteria, and 4) complex, heterogeneous data can be incorporated simultaneously. While these methods have been widely adopted as the gold standard in fields such as particle physics, astronomy, and biology, they have been slow to catch on in Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) and High Energy Density Physics (HEDP) research. Recently, several teams at LLNL, SNL, LANL, and the LLE have been exploring the use of these tools in their research and have found success. Here we propose that a concerted effort to consolidate these independent research efforts by developing and deploying common tools for use across the complex can revolutionize the way we approach data analysis, assimilation of theory and experiment, and decision making. The Bayesian formalism provides a means to accomplish this, but we are lacking certain infrastructure to make it happen on a large scale. Furthermore, once adopted, these techniques can be used to develop standards by which discoveries can be judged, similar to the so-called 5σ rule in high energy particle physics. Such standards may be used in the future to address the issue of unknown reproducibility in ICF and HED experiments caused by low shot rate and high cost per experiment. Our goals as a group are to advance the state of the art in HED measurement science by enabling: 1) better inferences from data with well-defined uncertainties, 2) better use of the data we have and continue to collect, 3) intelligent synthesis of data, 4) evaluation of the statistical significance of our data, and 5) informed decision making regarding the design of new experiments and instruments.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Pit Production Strategic Analysis Tool

The LANL Pit Production Strategic Analysis tool is an executive-level decision support tool for planning related to the demand and production of pits. The spreadsheet-based tool includes decision factors for stockpile program demand combined with production and infrastructure planning at PF-4, Savanna River, and future production options. The tool graphically compares supply and demand under different scenarios. The tool is based on NNSA planning documents and process analyses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Design-Space Data: Informing Common Design Decisions with Pre-Simulated Data

Design Space Exploration (DSE) analysis techniques represent a data-centric approach to integrating performance analysis in early design phases when there is the greatest potential to cheaply improve the energy efficiency of a building. We focus on a novel extension of DSE called Universal Design Space Exploration (UDSE), which leverages massive databases of pre-simulated analysis that represent all possible outcomes of common analysis workflows. These databases, called Design Spaces, become “universal” when a single pre-simulated design space can be re-applied to future unknown projects. Unlike current simulation methods, which require a design to exist before it can be analyzed and often take minutes or hours to simulate, UDSE leverages pre-simulation to deliver rapid and relevant insight as new designs are conceptualized. The data underpinning UDSE enables advanced statistical and Artificial Intelligence methods, allowing UDSE to deliver a greater understanding of the larger problem being explored, rather than simply delivering analysis of several pre-conceived design options. We believe that UDSE can provide instantaneous, relevant analysis for all building design projects at negligible cost. This paper has two main goals, to develop a relevant Universal Design Space that showcases the potential of UDSE and to release this data freely to industry and academia; thereby lowering the barrier to entry to digital literacy in statistics, ML and AI within the architecture, engineering, construction (AEC) industry.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning for Idaho National Laboratory

Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL’s) mission is to discover, demonstrate, and secure innovative nuclear energy solutions, other clean energy options, and critical infrastructure. This INL’s Climate Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Plan (VARP) was developed to enable and sustain that mission while ensuring the viability of operations considering expected climate change impacts. The VARP was developed according to the narrative requirements from the “Vulnerability Assessment and Resilience Planning Guidance, Version 1.2” document issued in February 2022. A prescribed process was used to identify mission-critical systems and components, determine historical and expected climate impacts, and develop resilient solutions. Experts from across INL, including operations staff, researchers, and climate scientists supplied input to the process. Analyses of climate modeling sources revealed that under scenarios of higher and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5), INL anticipates an increase in climate hazards, including drought, heat waves, wildfire, and precipitation. Increased frequency and duration of climatic hazards forecasts high impacts on certain mission-critical asset and infrastructure types. Utilizing the VARP Risk Assessment Tool, projected high climate hazard impacts across multiple asset and infrastructure types at the INL include energy generation and distribution systems, Site buildings, specialized or mission-critical equipment, and transportation and fleet infrastructure. Some of these mission-critical asset and infrastructure types maintain high adaptive capacity to climatic changes; however, others may need additional adaptive capacity to withstand increased frequency and duration of climate hazards. INL identified close to 300 resilient solutions that were consolidated into 11 solution categories to be tracked in the Department of Energy Sustainability Dashboard. The identified solutions are a starting point for future project development and analysis. These data are intended to inform decision makers on climate issues and potential solutions across INL and associated communities. The VARP is not intended to be a budget tool or project decision document on its own, but rather one of many tools used by decision makers to establish resilient priorities. This initial document provides the framework and foundation to resilient solutions. In the coming years, each solution needs to be fully developed, costed, and prioritized based on mission-critical risk and funding priorities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Axion Dark Matter Experiment Cavity Locking; System Development and Testing

This report documents the comparison of two frequency locking techniques for the four-cavity system under development for run 2A of the Axion Dark Matter eXperiment (ADMX). This report covers the requirements and technical challenges facing both of these techniques, a summary of tests performed at the University of Florida in late 2017 / early 2018 in order to compare them, and the final outcome and decision based on these tests and subsequent analysis.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗