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DOE OSTI2020

Modern Monte Carlo methods for efficient uncertainty quantification and propagation: A survey

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) includes the characterization, integration, and propagation of uncertainties that result from stochastic variations and a lack of knowledge or data in the natural world. Monte Carlo (MC) method is a sampling-based approach that has widely used for quantification and propagation of uncertainties. However, the standard MC method is often time-consuming if the simulation-based model is computationally intensive. This article gives an overview of modern MC methods to address the existing challenges of the standard MC in the context of UQ. Specifically, multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) extending the concept of control variates achieves a significant reduction of the computational cost by performing most evaluations with low accuracy and corresponding low cost, and relatively few evaluations at high accuracy and corresponding high cost. Multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) accelerates the convergence of standard Monte Carlo by generalizing the control variates with different models having varying fidelities and varying computational costs. Multimodel Monte Carlo method (MMMC), having a different setting of MLMC and MFMC, aims to address the issue of UQ and propagation when data for characterizing probability distributions are limited. Multimodel inference combined with importance sampling is proposed for quantifying and efficiently propagating the uncertainties resulting from small data sets. All of these three modern MC methods achieve a significant improvement of computational efficiency for probabilistic UQ, particularly uncertainty propagation. Finally, an algorithm summary and the corresponding code implementation are provided for each of the modern MC methods. The extension and application of these methods are discussed in detail.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Operational Energy Life Cycle Data Development for the National Institute of Standards And Technology (NIST) Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) Neutral Environmental Software Tool (NEST)

For this analysis, regionalized life cycle assessment (LCA) results for environmental impacts (using the Tool for Reduction and Assessment of Chemicals and Other Environmental Impacts [TRACI] 2.1) and cumulative energy demand (using the Federal Life Cycle Analysis Commons Elementary Flow List [FEDEFL] Inventory Methods v1.0.0) were evaluated for the production and utilization of electricity, natural gas, fuel oil, and propane as commodities within residential and commercial buildings. These results can used as a framework for future research into net zero, high-performance buildings, such as done here for the Building Industry Reporting and Design for Sustainability (BIRDS) database by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Engineering Laboratory. The geographical results were assigned to each United States (U.S.) Zone Improvement Plan (ZIP) code based on the ZIP code location and corresponding Balancing Authority Area, natural gas basin, and Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADDs). Additionally, previously developed models were utilized to develop future life cycle profiles. Projections were based on data available from the U.S. Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2022 through 2050 (AEO 2022). Electricity LCA models were updated based on AEO 2022 projected annual generation mixes, while the natural gas baseline model was updated based on projected shares of natural gas types (conventional, shale, tight, and coalbed methane). Projections of crude oil production rates and export rates were applied to the petroleum baseline model in five-year increments to investigate their effects on the life cycle profile of fuel oil and propane. While only 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) with climate carbon feedback (CC-FB) and Cumulative Energy Demand are shown in Section 4: Results, the complete results, including Acidification Potential, Eutrophication Potential, Freshwater Ecotoxicity Potential, GWP-100 without inclusion of CC-FB, Human Health Impacts Potentials (Cancer, Non-Cancer), Ozone Depletion Potential, Particulate Matter Formation Potential, and Photochemical Smog Formation Potential, are tabulated for each ZIP code in the Excel worksheets that accompany this analysis. For the Excel spreadsheet tools associated with this report, please go to https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=f8890fac-be55-44ac-aaa9-e2888bfabe93

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2022

Decision Science for Machine Learning (DeSciML)

The increasing use of machine learning (ML) models to support high-consequence decision making drives a need to increase the rigor of ML-based decision making. Critical problems ranging from climate change to nonproliferation monitoring rely on machine learning for aspects of their analyses. Likewise, future technologies, such as incorporation of data-driven methods into the stockpile surveillance and predictive failure analysis for weapons components, will all rely on decision-making that incorporates the output of machine learning models. In this project, our main focus was the development of decision scientific methods that combine uncertainty estimates for machine learning predictions, with a domain-specific model of error costs. Other focus areas include uncertainty measurement in ML predictions, designing decision rules using multiobjecive optimization, the value of uncertainty reduction, and decision-tailored uncertainty quantification for probability estimates. By laying foundations for rigorous decision making based on the predictions of machine learning models, these approaches are directly relevant to every national security mission that applies, or will apply, machine learning to data, most of which entail some decision context.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2016

Near Real-Time Flood Monitoring and Impact Assessment Systems

Floods are the costliest natural disaster, causing approximately 6.8 million deaths in the twentieth century alone. Worldwide economic flood damage estimates in 2012 exceed $19 Billion USD. Extended duration floods also pose longer term threats to food security, water, sanitation, hygiene, and community livelihoods, particularly in developing countries. Projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggest that precipitation extremes, rainfall intensity, storm intensity, and variability are increasing due to climate change. Increasing hydrologic uncertainty will likely lead to unprecedented extreme flood events. As such, there is a vital need to enhance and further develop traditional techniques used to rapidly assess flooding and extend analytical methods to estimate impacted population and infrastructure. Measuring flood extent in situ is generally impractical, time consuming, and can be inaccurate. Remotely sensed imagery acquired from space-borne and airborne sensors provides a viable platform for consistent and rapid wall-to-wall monitoring of large flood events through time. Terabytes of freely available satellite imagery are made available online each day by NASA, ESA, and other international space research institutions. Advances in cloud computing and data storage technologies allow researchers to leverage these satellite data and apply analytical methods at scale. Repeat-survey earth observations help provide insight about how natural phenomena change through time, including the progression and recession of floodwaters. In recent years, cloud-penetrating radar remote sensing techniques (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar) and high temporal resolution imagery platforms (e.g., MODIS and its 1-day return period), along with high performance computing infrastructure, have enabled significant advances in software systems that provide flood warning, assessments, and hazard reduction potential. By incorporating social and economic data, researchers can develop systems that automatically quantify the socioeconomic impacts resulting from flood disaster events.

Ahamed, Aakash↗

DOE OSTI2022

A differentiable approach to the maximum independent set problem using dataless neural networks

The success of machine learning solutions for reasoning about discrete structures has brought attention to its adoption within combinatorial optimization algorithms. Such approaches generally rely on supervised learning by leveraging datasets of the combinatorial structures of interest drawn from some distribution of problem instances. Reinforcement learning has also been employed to find such structures. Here, in this paper, we propose a different approach in that no data is required for training the neural networks that produce the solution. In this sense, what we present is not a machine learning solution, but rather one that is dependent on neural networks and where backpropagation is applied to a loss function defined by the structure of the neural network architecture as opposed to a training dataset. In particular, we reduce the popular combinatorial optimization problem of finding a maximum independent set to a neural network and employ a dataless training scheme to refine the parameters of the network such that those parameters yield the structure of interest. Additionally, we propose a universal graph reduction procedure to handle large-scale graphs. The reduction exploits community detection for graph partitioning and is applicable to any graph type and/or density. Experimental results on both real and synthetic graphs demonstrate that our proposed method performs on par or outperforms state-of-the-art learning-based methods in terms of the size of the found set without requiring any training data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Scale effects on core design, fuel costs, and spent fuel volume of pressurized water reactors

The desire to improve the economic competitiveness and deployment pace of nuclear energy through modularization, manufacturing, and series production had led to the development of smaller size reactors. As the standard 17x17 fuel technology is mainly maintained in the pressurized water reactors (PWRs) category, this translates into a lower number of fuel assemblies in the core and sometimes a reduced fuel height. To assess the impact of such scale change in core design on fuel cycle cost and spent fuel volume, a scoping analysis tool is developed based on infinite lattice calculations, leakage, fuel management reduced models, and levelized unit cost of electricity (LCOE) estimate. As such, cost dynamics driven by fuel specific power, burnup, core leakage, feed, cycle length, fuel assembly height as well as uranium market data are captured with consistent set of assumptions and analysis methods. A selection of 5 reactor designs representative of leading PWR developers is assessed and compared. Pursuing higher specific powers and optimal burnups are highlighted as the main fuel cost reduction drivers, nevertheless, practical limitations and opportunities must be evaluated to establish the feasibility of such enhanced fuel operation. In consequence, a detailed core design is performed using SIMULATE3 code for 5 PWR variations including natural and forced coolant circulation modes, two reactor scales, power densities of 73, 112, and 123 kW/l and higher discharge burnups. Design and optimization are performed at the lattice level, for the reflector, and at the core loading level. Satisfactory steady-state operation including power distribution, coolant operating limits, and reactivity requirements are analyzed and reported in this paper. The fuel economics of the detailed core designs confirm the scoping analysis findings. Despite the unlocked power uprates in small PWRs, the achievable burnup for a given fuel specific power requires more enrichment and shorter fuel height results in higher fabrication costs per mass of fuel, which makes scaling down core size a more expensive endeavor on the fuel cycle front. Spent fuel volumes are reported for the PWRs designed in this paper. Furthermore, these volumes are driven by the core average discharge burnup regardless of the scale in consideration. Additional cost and core performance aspects related to heavy reflector gains, fuel-reflector substitution, and disposal cost policy in the U.S. are examined.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projection pursuit adaptation on polynomial chaos expansions

Here, the present work addresses the issue of accurate stochastic approximations in high-dimensional parametric space using tools from uncertainty quantification (UQ). The basis adaptation method and its accelerated algorithm in polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) were recently proposed to construct low-dimensional approximations adapted to specific quantities of interest (QoI). The present paper addresses one difficulty with these adaptations, namely their reliance on quadrature point sampling, which limits the reusability of potentially expensive samples. Projection pursuit (PP) is a statistical tool to find the “interesting” projections in high-dimensional data and thus bypass the curse-of-dimensionality. In the present work, we combine the fundamental ideas of basis adaptation and projection pursuit regression (PPR) to propose a novel method to simultaneously learn the optimal low-dimensional spaces and PCE representation from given data. While this projection pursuit adaptation (PPA) can be entirely data-driven, the constructed approximation exhibits mean-square convergence to the solution of an underlying governing equation and thus captures the supports and probability distributions associated with the physics constraints. The proposed approach is demonstrated on a borehole problem and a structural dynamics problem, demonstrating the versatility of the method and its ability to discover low-dimensional manifolds with high accuracy with limited data. In addition, the method can learn surrogate models for different quantities of interest while reusing the same data set.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Reduced-basis method for few-body bound-state emulation

Recent advances in both theoretical and computational methods have enabled large-scale, precision calculations of the properties of atomic nuclei. With the growing complexity of modern nuclear theory, however, also comes the need for novel methods to perform systematic studies and quantify the uncertainties of models when confronted with experimental data. Here, this study presents an application of such an approach, the reduced basis method, to substantially lower computational costs by constructing a significantly smaller Hamiltonian subspace informed by previous solutions. Our method shows comparable efficiency and accuracy to other dimensionality reduction techniques on an artificial three-body bound system while providing a richer representation of physical information in its projection and training subspace. This methodological advancement can be applied in other contexts and has the potential to greatly improve our ability to systematically explore theoretical models and thus enhance our understanding of the fundamental properties of nuclear systems.

cluster models↗

DOE OSTI2025

PMDT: AI-Enabled Predictive Maintenance Digital Twins for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

Our team made substantial technical progress on various fronts during the course of the program. Multiple milestones were geared towards demonstrating the feasibility of machine learning based predictive maintenance digital twins towards reducing O&M costs, whereas some other milestones actually focused on identifying technical gaps and developing technologies such as humble AI to provide necessary robustness to the ML-based models. We were able to demonstrate in many cases that Machine learning-based methods can be successfully adapted for Nuclear plant environments especially for remote monitoring applications. Detailed analyses were carried out with plant and full scope simulation data along with capabilities of enhanced analytics to assess and set realistic expectations on cost reductions in O&M. These assessments are paving the way for investments towards reactor design improvements as well project planning for SMR projects as they develop and mature in the next few years. Technology developed under this program got direct visibility to GE Hitachi and their utility customers and resulted in positive intents to deploy some of the elements from design phase. The project additionally resulted in several reports, publications, software and data generation that will be useful in deployment and O&M services for BWRX300 fleets.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1965

Computer modification reduces time of performing iterative division

Time reduction in performing iterative division results from using a serial-by-parallel divider employing a look-ahead feature that predetermines the sign relationships of several iterations before the computer cycle begins. This method can be employed in any data handling system performing high-speed division.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1972

A NASTRAN correlation study for vibrations of a cross-stiffened ship's deck

To evaluate the effectiveness of NASTRAN for predicting the vibration modes of panels with bending-membrane coupling, a cross-stiffened ship deck was analyzed. In correlation with experimental data, one NASTRAN finite element representation gave results slightly more accurate than a previous analytical solution. Computational time was excessively long, due to the Guyan method of reducing the eigenvalue problem. It is recommended that a more efficient method of matrix reduction be implemented for the lumped mass formulation.

Thornton, E. A.↗

NASA NTRS1984

An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation using an efficient method for approximating sensitivities

An algorithm for maximum likelihood (ML) estimation is developed primarily for multivariable dynamic systems. The algorithm relies on a new optimization method referred to as a modified Newton-Raphson with estimated sensitivities (MNRES). The method determines sensitivities by using slope information from local surface approximations of each output variable in parameter space. The fitted surface allows sensitivity information to be updated at each iteration with a significant reduction in computational effort compared with integrating the analytically determined sensitivity equations or using a finite-difference method. Different surface-fitting methods are discussed and demonstrated. Aircraft estimation problems are solved by using both simulated and real-flight data to compare MNRES with commonly used methods; in these solutions MNRES is found to be equally accurate and substantially faster. MNRES eliminates the need to derive sensitivity equations, thus producing a more generally applicable algorithm.

Murphy, P. C.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Hybrid approach to data reduction for multi-sensor hot wires

A hybrid approach to implementing the calibration equations for a multisensor hot-wire probe is discussed. The approach combines some of the speed of a look-up approach with the moderate storage requirements of direct calculation based on functional fitting. Particular attention is given to timing and storage comparisons for an X-wire probe. The method depends on the oft-employed concept of an effective cooling velocity which is a function only of the bridge output voltage.

Hooper, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Magnetic properties of iron-bearing graphite fibers

Carbon fibers containing ferromagnetically-ordered iron or other transition metals could be used in a variety of lightweight magnetic composites. Intercalation of bulk graphite with CoCl2 or FeCl3, followed by reduction with butyl lithium, did indeed produce magnetic samples; however, the observed room temperature permeabilities (mu) were less than 2 G/Oe. Magnetic data are presented on carbon fibers containing large amounts of elemental iron, which were prepared by a new method. In this method Amoco P-75 fibers were intercalated with Br2 and I2 followed by fluorination, forming CF(0.75). This product was then intercalated with FeCl3. Subsequent heat treatments in oxidizing and reducing atmospheres converted most of the iron to the pure alpha phase. Room temperature permeabilities as large as 40 G/Oe are observed.

Ferrante, R.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Analysis of Fade Detection and Compensation Experimental Results in a Ka-Band Satellite System

The frequency bands being used for new satellite communication systems are constantly increasing to accommodate the requirements for additional capacity. At these higher frequencies, propagation impairments that did not significantly affect the signal at lower frequencies begin to have considerable impact. In Ka-band, the next logical commercial frequency band to be used for satellite communication, attenuation of the signal due to rain is a primary concern. An experimental satellite built by NASA, the Advanced Communication Technology Satellite (ACTS), launched in September 1993, is the first US communication satellite operating in the Ka-band. In addition to higher carrier frequencies, a number of other new technologies, including onboard baseband processing, multiple beam antennas, and rain fade detection and compensation techniques, were designed into the ACTS. Verification experiments have been conducted since the launch to characterize the new technologies. The focus of this thesis is to describe and validate the method used by the ACTS Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT) ground stations in detecting the presence of fade in the communication signal and to adaptively compensate for it by the addition of burst rate reduction and forward error correction. Measured data obtained from the ACTS program is used to validate the compensation technique. In this thesis, models in MATLAB are developed to statistically characterize the increased availability achieved by the compensation techniques in terms of the bit error rate time enhancement factor. Several improvements to the ACTS technique are discussed and possible implementations for future Ka-band systems are also presented.

Johnson, Sandra↗

NASA NTRS2009

An Overview of Prognosis Health Management Research at GRC for Gas Turbine Engine Structures With Special Emphasis on Deformation and Damage Modeling

Herein a general, multimechanism, physics-based viscoelastoplastic model is presented in the context of an integrated diagnosis and prognosis methodology which is proposed for structural health monitoring, with particular applicability to gas turbine engine structures. In this methodology, diagnostics and prognostics will be linked through state awareness variable(s). Key technologies which comprise the proposed integrated approach include 1) diagnostic/detection methodology, 2) prognosis/lifing methodology, 3) diagnostic/prognosis linkage, 4) experimental validation and 5) material data information management system. A specific prognosis lifing methodology, experimental characterization and validation and data information management are the focal point of current activities being pursued within this integrated approach. The prognostic lifing methodology is based on an advanced multi-mechanism viscoelastoplastic model which accounts for both stiffness and/or strength reduction damage variables. Methods to characterize both the reversible and irreversible portions of the model are discussed. Once the multiscale model is validated the intent is to link it to appropriate diagnostic methods to provide a full-featured structural health monitoring system.

Arnold, Steven M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Dynamic Stability Testing Techniques with Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel

Dynamic stability testing techniques currently utilized at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) are conducted in multiple facilities and consists of free flight, forced oscillation, and free-to-oscillate tests. The MIT/NASA/ODU Magnetic Suspension and Balance System (MSBS) has been recommissioned to explore its utility as an additional facility to expand the dynamic stability test capabilities currently available at NASA LaRC. Simulations were created to replicate each current test facility and method as closely as possible. Data collected from the simulated environments was corrupted with replicated noise sources of the different testing environments and then compared to real data collected during tests when such data was available. The corrupted data was then passed through data reduction and System Identification (SID) to estimate the accuracy of the results with the known aerodynamic model that was utilized within the simulation to generate the original data. Magnitudes of noise were varied utilizing Monte Carlo analysis to perform sensitivity analysis of each noise source on the extracted dynamic stability coefficients. Some preliminary results will be presented.

Otoniel Ramirez↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Dynamic Stability Testing Techniques with Magnetic Suspension Wind Tunnel

Otoniel Ramirez↗