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At least 829 records · Page 46

An AI-Enabled MODEX Framework for Improving Predictability of Subsurface Water Storage across Local and Continental Scales

Focal Area: (2) Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components. (3) Insight gleaned from complex data using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods. We propose an AI-enabled model-experiment (MODEX) framework to improve the predictability of subsurface water storage (SWS) from local to conus scales in a changing environment by taking advantage of DOE’s observation and simulation capabilities, as well as to inform the model and the observation development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Teleconnections-Induced Predictability of Regional Water Cycle on Seasonal to Decadal Timescales Using Machine Learning Approaches

Focal Area: (3) Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI. Science Challenge: Predictive understanding of the regional water cycle based on teleconnections of climate modes of variability using AI methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Characterization of Extreme Hydroclimate Events in Earth System Models using ML/AI

Focal Area(s): (1) We put forward the concepts of data assimilation enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization and unsupervised learning applied to downscale information within Earth System Models (ESMs). (2) We discuss predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI-driven model/component/parameterization selection) to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs. The AI-based models will run five-six order of magnitude times faster, yet will provide similar accuracy, allowing us to provide range bounds on uncertainty faster and thus enabling faster extreme event identification. (3) Further, we consider the insight gleaned from complex data (observed/simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI to improve the characterization of extreme hydroclimate events in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Framework for an adaptive integrated observation system using a hierarchy of machine learning approaches

Focal Area(s): 1. Data acquisition enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, and hardware-related efforts involving AI. 2. Insight gleaned from complex measurements using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI Science Challenge and Rationale: Atmospheric processes are stochastic, occur at scales from the micrometer to many kilometers, and are constantly changing over time. Characterizing these interactions and associated environmental conditions using traditional measurement techniques is difficult and can take years to build statistics on atmospheric phenomena that occurs episodically. Developing new innovative approaches to modify sampling strategies in real-time would enable the routine collection of targeted measurements focused on a specific set of science questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improve wildfire predictability driven by extreme water cycle with interpretable physically-guided ML/AI

Focal Area(s): Predictive modeling using AI techniques and AI-derived model components; use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system comprising of a hierarchy of models (Primary); insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics or knowledge-guided AI (Secondary). Science Challenge: Wildfires modify land surface characteristics, such as vegetation composition, soil and litter carbon stocks, and surface albedo, with significant consequences for the regional carbon cycle. For example, tropical regions (i.e., African and South America) are particularly vulnerable to wildfire, account for more than 80% of the global burned area, and emit ~1.4 PgC y -1 into the atmosphere together with other dust and aerosols that strongly affect regional climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Past and Future Trends of Severe Storms

The objective of this research is to use machine learning methods to establish past trends in the severe storm record and build on this information to provide severe storms projections in a future climate. This objective aligns with Focal Area 3, which emphasizes big data analytics in combination with knowledge-guided AI.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Representing the Unrepresented Impact of River Ice on Hydrology, Biogeochemistry, Vegetation, and Geomorphology: A Hybrid Physics-Machine Learning Approach

Focal areas include: Predictive modeling through the use of AI techniques and AI-derived model components; the use of AI and other tools to design a prediction system composed of a hierarchy of models (e.g., AI driven model/component/parameterization selection). Insight gleaned from complex data (both observed and simulated) using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Results of the Analyses of SMECT Mercury Sample Collected During Mercury Pump (MB1) Functional Check

A pump added to remove mercury from the sump of the Slurry Mix Evaporator Condensate Tank (SMECT) in DWPF was successfully tested in 2020, resulting in a sample of contaminated mercury obtained from the Mercury Purification Process (MPP) cell. The mercury in the sump of the SMECT was present as a result of steam stripping of sludge slurry in the Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT) at DWPF. A schematic of the MPP system provided by DWPF personnel is shown in Appendix A. DWPF personnel supplied the following detailed description of the Hg sampling: “The sample provided is the result of DWPF extraction of mercury by means of the Mercury Pump-Water Cart. The Mercury Pump extracted the sample from the SMECT mercury sump. The pump uses pressurized water to transfer a small amount of mercury to a leachate bucket located at the Lab Mercury cell. The mercury and water were allowed to be self separated, and mercury was gravity decanted from the leachate bucket.” DWPF personnel indicate that the leachate bucket is equipped with both a top stopcock/drain and a lower/bottom stopcock/drain from which the mercury was decanted or drained out, while the separated water layer remained above the mercury during draining. The DWPF customer requested SRNL to analyze the sample for the following: gross alpha/nonvolatile beta analysis and perform a Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP) per the Environmental Protection Agency's Test Methods for Evaluating Solid Waste: Physical/Chemical Methods, SW-846. While the TCLP was preferred, a Total Metals analysis of the eight Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) metals was deemed acceptable.2 The analytical data collected on this mercury sample will be used in planning for sample disposition as well to start a profile for future Hg disposition of Hg collected from steam stripping.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Advancing Fissile Materials Production Modeling with Adaptive Computing Environment and Simulations (ACES)

The Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA) provides advanced capabilities to simulate the uranium enrichment process to support international negotiations on the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Uranium isotope separation centrifuges connected in a cascade configuration can produce the low-enriched uranium needed for nuclear power. However, those same centrifuges connected in a different configuration can also produce highly enriched uranium for nuclear weapons. Having the capability to assess cascade operations and identify nefarious activities promotes the peaceful uses of nuclear energy while restricting nuclear weapons proliferation. DNN R&D's Nonproliferation Stewardship Program Adaptive Computing Environment and Simulations (ACES) project is creating a modern, sustainable ecosystem of physics-based models and data-analytics tools that enables analysts to model uranium enrichment systems, simulate operational scenarios, and apply various policy options to explore potential outcomes.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

TCR Data Management Plan

The Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Transformation Challenge Reactor (TCR) program is developing additive manufacturing and artificial intelligence (AI) to deliver enabling technologies for advanced reactors. Through the application of these advanced technologies, the program targets delivering solutions to the high costs and lengthy deployment timelines that threaten the future of nuclear energy—the country’s largest source of carbon-free energy. This document describes the plan for integrating and managing TCR data from multiple sources throughout ORNL and external sources, including novel data sources associated with advanced manufacturing, characterization systems, and the TCR Digital Platform that incorporates various levels of AI and data analytics.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

ASER Annual Site Environmental Report 2020

Los Alamos National Laboratory’s (the Laboratory’s) annual site environmental reports are prepared each year by the Laboratory’s environmental organizations, as required by U.S. Department of Energy Order 231.1B, Administrative Change 1, Environment, Safety, and Health Reporting, and Order 458.1, Administrative Change 4, Radiation Protection of the Public and the Environment. The following chapters in this report discuss our success in complying with environmental laws, regulations, and orders (Chapter 2, Compliance Summary); how we manage the Laboratory’s environmental performance (Chapter 3, Environmental Programs and Analytical Data Quality); how we monitor for air emissions of radioactive materials and climate conditions (Chapter 4, Air Quality); how we monitor for effects of Laboratory operations on groundwater quality (Chapter 5, Groundwater Protection); how we monitor the movement of chemicals and radionuclides by storm water runoff and the levels of chemicals and radionuclides in deposited sediment (Chapter 6, Watershed Quality); how we monitor for the presence, levels, and effects of chemicals and radionuclides in plants, animals, soil, and vegetation (Chapter 7, Ecosystem Health); and finally, what radionuclide dose or risk from chemical exposure members of the public may experience as a result of Laboratory operations (Chapter 8, Public Dose and Risk Assessment).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparative Assessment of Data-driven Process Models in Health Information Technology

Process mining for conformance analysis consists of comparing a reference process model against a data-driven process model generated via log files from information technology systems. However, in the absence of a complete reference process model, we found no suggested approaches in the literature to address the need for evaluating process conformance among different healthcare facilities to assess standardization of care. Our goal is to find similarities and dissimilarities in data-driven process models among US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) facilities that can be indicative of patient safety issues. Our hypothesis was that the analysis would not produce statistically significant differences in outcome. We present a unique implementation of conformance analysis in process mining that consists of combining process mining, process mapping and statistical metrics. We illustrate our approach by applying it to the analysis of two clinical radiology order process models generated from healthcare data provided by two similar facilities in the VHA. The comparative assessment showed that about 70% of the orders completed successfully and 30% were not completed due to policy and duplications. Our analysis found a good statistical correlation between both facilities, as the Spearman’s correlation coefficient between facilities for the frequency of cases per total hours was 0.87879, for the frequency of cases by state transition was 0.79702 and for the throughput time per state transition was 0.63582. Additional statistical analyses using the Mann-Whitney U test and the root mean square error both produced values that were not significant. The foregoing approach validated our hypothesis by demonstrating a good statistical correlation of data describing the flow of clinical radiology orders absent a credible reference model. Finding good agreement between both facilities was important in confirming that the clinical orders flow in a similar manner, suggesting standardization of care.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Beam Stability Overview [Slides]

Radiographic spot size is affected by many factors, including beam motion due to instabilities. Instabilities and effects that can influence the radiation-source spot size are being evaluated for the Scorpius flash-radiography accelerator. The Scorpius LIA design has a direct influence on beam stability. Many features of the design were specifically incorporated to mitigate instability. The major beam dynamics concerns for high-current LIAs are being evaluated for the long, 102-cell Scorpius design. For these results, all tools available were used including experimental data, analytic theory, and physics simulation codes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A-SST Initial Specification

The U.S. Army Research Office (ARO), in partnership with IARPA, are investigating innovative, efficient, and scalable computer architectures that are capable of executing next-generation large scale data-analytic applications. These applications are increasingly sparse, unstructured, non-local, and heterogeneous. Under the Advanced Graphic Intelligence Logical computing Environment (AGILE) program, Performer teams will be asked to design computer architectures to meet the future needs of the DoD and the Intelligence Community (IC). This design effort will require flexible, scalable, and detailed simulation to assess the performance, efficiency, and validity of their designs. To support AGILE, Sandia National Labs will be providing the AGILE-enhanced Structural Simulation Toolkit (A-SST). This toolkit is a computer architecture simulation framework designed to support fast, parallel, and multi-scale simulation of novel architectures. This document describes the A-SST framework, some of its library of simulation models, and how it may be used by AGILE Performers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗