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DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic Economic Dispatch Considering Transmission–Distribution Coordination and Automatic Regulation Effect

With the rapid increase of renewable energy sources, the variability and uncertainty in power systems are significantly increased, and the power system operation is facing more and more challenges. In the traditional dynamic economic dispatch (DED) of transmission systems, the frequency and voltage regulation effects are not actively utilized. In addition, the transmission systems and distribution systems are optimized separately; the transmission–distribution coordination effect is not considered. In this article, a new DED is proposed. The optimal scheduling results are obtained by making a balance between operating cost and reliability cost. Both the automatic regulation effect and transmission–distribution coordination effect are explored and exploited in terms of the equivalent reserve, which can reduce the reserve provided by generating units, and can further enhance the security and economics of power system operation. The validity and effectiveness of the proposed model are illustrated by case studies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Covariance-Free Bifidelity Control Variates Importance Sampling for Rare Event Reliability Analysis

Multifidelity modeling has been steadily gaining attention as a tool to address the problem of exorbitant model evaluation costs that makes the estimation of failure probabilities a significant computational challenge for complex real-world problems, particularly when failure is a rare event. To implement multifidelity modeling, estimators that efficiently combine information from multiple models/sources are necessary. In past works, the variance reduction techniques of control variates (CV) and importance sampling (IS) have been leveraged for this task. In this paper, we present the CVIS framework—a creative take on a coupled CV and IS estimator for bifidelity reliability analysis. The framework addresses some of the practical challenges of the CV method by using an estimator for the control variate mean and sidestepping the need to estimate the covariance between the original estimator and the control variate through a clever choice for the tuning constant. Furthermore, the task of selecting an efficient IS distribution is also considered, with a view towards maximally leveraging the bifidelity structure and maintaining expressivity. Additionally, a diagnostic is provided that indicates both the efficiency of the algorithm as well as the relative predictive quality of the models utilized. Finally, the behavior and performance of the framework is explored through analytical and numerical examples.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗

DOE OSTI2020

Indirect Dry Cooling System Spreadsheet Model for sCO2

The attached cost and performance spreadsheet model is for an indirect dry cooling system, one of four cooling system models developed for use in optimizing indirectly-heated supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles. Running the model requires that the user has REFPROP version 9 or below installed, as well as the Microsoft Excel REFPROP Add-In. Upon opening, use Excel’s Edit Links feature to link to the user’s installed REFPROP.xla or REFPROP.xlam file. For the spreadsheet model compatible with REFPROP version 10 and above, contact Nathan Weiland at nathan.weiland@netl.doe.gov. Technical documentation for the model can be found here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=3199.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Wet Cooling Tower Cooling System Spreadsheet Model for sCO2

The attached cost and performance spreadsheet model is for a wet cooling tower system, one of four cooling system models developed for use in optimizing indirectly-heated supercritical CO2 (sCO2) power cycles. Running the model requires that the user has REFPROP version 9 or below installed, as well as the Microsoft Excel REFPROP Add-In. Upon opening, use Excel’s Edit Links feature to link to the user’s installed REFPROP.xla or REFPROP.xlam file. For the spreadsheet model compatible with REFPROP version 10 and above, contact Nathan Weiland at nathan.weiland@netl.doe.gov. Technical documentation for the model can be found here: https://www.netl.doe.gov/energy-analysis/details?id=3199.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Two-photon double ionization with finite pulses: Application of the virtual sequential model to helium

As a step toward the full ab initio description of two-photon double ionization processes, we present a finite-pulse version of the virtual-sequential model for polyelectronic atoms. The model relies on the ab initio description of the single ionization scattering states of both the neutral and ionized target system. As a proof of principle and a benchmark, the model is applied to the helium atom using the newstock atomic photoionization code. The results of angularly integrated observables, which are in excellent agreement with existing time-dependent Schrödinger equation (TDSE) simulations, show how the model is able to capture the role of electron correlation in the nonsequential regime, and the influence of autoionizing states in the sequential regime, at a comparatively modest computational cost. The model also reproduces the two-particle interference with ultrashort pulses, which is within reach of current experimental technologies. Furthermore, the model shows the modulation of the joint energy distribution in the vicinity of autoionizing states, which can be probed with extreme-ultraviolet pulses of duration much longer than the characteristic lifetime of the resonance. Furthermore, the formalism discussed here applies also to polyelectronic atoms and molecules, thus opening a window on nonsequential and sequential double ionization in these more complex systems.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1992

A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share prediction).

Turksen, I. B.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computationally efficient subglacial drainage modelling using Gaussian process emulators: GlaDS-GP v1.0

Subglacial drainage models represent water flow at the ice–bed interface through coupled distributed and channelized systems to determine water pressure, discharge, and drainage system geometry. While they are used to understand processes such as the relationship between surface melt and ice flow, the number of uncertain model parameters and the computational cost of running models makes it difficult to adequately explore the high-dimensional parameter space and evaluate uncertainty in model predictions. Here, we develop Gaussian process (GP) emulators that make fast predictions with associated uncertainty of subglacial drainage model outputs. Using a truncated principal component (PC) basis representation, we construct a GP emulator for diurnally averaged subglacial water pressure. We also explore emulation of scalar variables describing drainage efficiency and configuration. We train the emulators using ensembles of up to 512 simulations varying eight parameters of the Glacier Drainage System (GlaDS) model on a synthetic domain intended to represent an ice-sheet margin. The emulators make predictions ∼ 1000 times faster than GlaDS simulations, with errors <3 % for the water pressure field and ∼ 5 %–9 % for drainage efficiency and configuration. We apply the emulators to explore the eight-dimensional parameter space by computing variance-based parameter sensitivity indices, finding that three parameters (ice flow coefficient, bed bump aspect ratio, and the subglacial cavity system conductivity) explain 90 % of the variance in modelled water pressure in response to parameter changes. The GP emulator approach described here is well suited to integrating observational data with models to make calibrated, credible predictions of subglacial drainage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1973

Three models of the vibrating ulna.

Evaluation of the ability of three models of the ulna to predict ulnar resonant frequency. The ulna is considered to be a uniform cylindrical tube made of homogeneous isotropic material. In model I the tube is attached at each end to rigid supports by hinges, in model II the tube is attached to rigid supports by springs rather than hinges, while model III is the same as model II except for the addition of a spring-mass system simulating an accelerometer strapped to the wrist. It is found that all three models exhibit comparable effectiveness in predicting the allowed cyclic vibration frequency, although model I is marginally better than models II or III in predicting this parameter. All three models also yield relatively realistic values for Young's modulus. In terms of results, therefore, there is no clear choice between the models. However, owing to greater costs incurred with models II and III, it is concluded that model I is the most useful, even though it is the least 'realistic' of the three models evaluated.-

Jurist, J. M.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Performance of Nuclear Reactors to Power Direct Air Capture Technologies

This research contributes to the expanding body of work by academia and industry on the synergy between nuclear energy and DAC systems. It provides an independent and transparent assessment of the cost associated with capturing CO2 from the atmosphere when powering DAC with various nuclear technologies, and by comparing these findings with non-nuclear alternatives. This study utilizes the latest models and cost estimates for both nuclear and DAC technologies.

direct air capture (DAC)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Benefit Analysis of CO 2 Delivery Options for Offshore Storage or Enhanced Oil Recovery

The analysis presented in this report evaluates the benefits of CO₂ offshore transport via pipeline or ship within the GOM. It takes a top-down framework to estimate the costs. First, this analysis designed a reduced-order model (ROM) based on the cash flows in the FECM/NETL CO₂ Transport Cost Model (also known as CO2_T_COM). The ROM takes capital expenses (CAPEX) and operating expenses (OPEX) to calculate the CO₂ breakeven price based on the cash flows. Second, this analysis developed regression models utilizing published data from other analyses to estimate CAPEX and OPEX. Since the ROM is a simplified cash flow calculation, it is easy to exchange the core regression models to estimate various costs. The ROM and regression models provided a framework that can be easily used by other researchers, decision-makers, operators, and regulators. The objective of this analysis is to assess the CO₂ breakeven cost range for pipeline and ship transport of captured CO₂ given the CO₂ source and storage reservoir located in the GOM.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Development of Explainable Data-Driven Turbulence Models with Application to Liquid Fuel Nuclear Reactors

Liquid fuel nuclear reactors offer innovative possibilities in terms of nuclear reactor designs and passive safety systems. Molten Salts Reactors (MSRs) with a fast spectrum are a particular type of these reactors using liquid fuel. MSFRs often involve large open cavities in their core in which the liquid fuel circulates at a high speed to transport the heat generated by the nuclear reactions into the heat exchangers. This high-speed flow yields a turbulent field with large Reynolds numbers in the reactor core. Since the nuclear power, the neutron precursor’s transport and the thermal exchanges are strongly coupled in the MSFR’s core cavity, having accurate turbulent models for the liquid fuel flow is necessary to avoid introducing significant errors in the numerical simulations of these reactors. Nonetheless, high-accuracy simulations of the turbulent flow field in the reactor cavity of these reactors are usually prohibitively expensive in terms of computational resources, especially when performing multiphysics numerical calculations. Therefore, in this work, we propose a novel method using a modified genetic algorithm to optimize the calculation of the Reynolds Shear Stress Tensor (RST) used for turbulence modeling. The proposed optimization methodology is particularly suitable for advanced liquid fuel reactors such as the MSFRs since it allows the development of high-accuracy but still low-computational-cost turbulence models for the liquid fuel. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach by developing high accuracy Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes (RANS) models (averaged flow error less than 5%) for a low and a large aspect ratio in a Backward-Facing Step (BFS) section particularly challenging for RANS models. The newly developed turbulence models better capture the flow field after the boundary layer tipping, over the extent of the recirculation bubble, and near the boundary layer reattachment region in both BFS configurations. The main reason for these improvements is that the developed models better capture the flow field turbulent anisotropy in the bulk region of the BFS. Then, we illustrate the interest in using this turbulence modeling approach for the case of an MSFR by quantifying the impact of the turbulence modeling on the reactor key parameters.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2002

A quantitative risk model for early lifecycle decision making

Decisions made in the earliest phases of system development have the most leverage to influence the success of the entire development effort, and yet must be made when information is incomplete and uncertain. We have developed a scalable cost-benefit model to support this critical phase of early-lifecycle decision-making.

requirements optimization summarization tradeoffs↗

DOE OSTI2023

Electric Vehicle Managed Charging: Estimating the Potential Bulk Power System Value

With more and more electric vehicles (EVs) on the road, the grid of the future can greatly benefit from EV managed charging, which coordinates charging based on people's travel needs, electricity supply, and grid conditions. The added flexibility could be especially valuable for the bulk power system as it transitions to high shares of variable renewable generation, like wind and solar. Numerous studies have estimated the potential value of EV managed charging. In this study, NREL leveraged more detailed modeling of EV adoption, use, charging, and bulk power system operations to understand the potential value. Unique to this study, NREL modeled different charging flexibility types and dispatch mechanisms - as well as participation rates among drivers in having their EV charging managed - starting from vehicle-specific descriptions of charging flexibility. The study is based on a passenger light-duty vehicle adoption scenario with 100% EV sales by 2035 and a New England power system in 2038 with 84% clean generation and 26% of the electric load met by net imports. The 2038 New England light-duty vehicle feet is modeled as 45% electric.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Core design and performance of the Westinghouse lead fast reactor with UO 2 and MOX configurations

For this work, Westinghouse partnered with Argonne National Laboratory to design, model and optimize UO 2 - and MOX-fueled core designs for a medium size (950 MWt) Lead Fast Reactor that was pursued by Westinghouse. Using Argonne’s suite of reactor analysis codes together with Westinghouse fuel cost economic models, thousands of candidate cores were considered to achieve the economics-optimized cores presented in this paper. This optimization process considered detailed reactor physics, fuel performance, transient performance, and fuel economics models. The reactor performance of the resulting optimized UO 2 - and MOX-fueled core designs are described and compared in this paper. Both cores show fuel performance and transient behavior that is considered acceptable for the optimization presented herein, while further testing campaigns on material performance in high-temperature liquid lead will be required to confirm acceptability at the operating conditions chosen. A multi-batch strategy was selected for the UO 2 core for best fuel utilization with minimum fuel inventory costs. A single-batch fuel management was instead selected for the MOX core to maximize cycle length and minimize the impact of the longer refueling outage resulting from the higher decay heat of the discharged MOX fuel relative to the discharged UO 2 fuel, requiring a longer cooling time before dry-lift of discharged fuel could take place.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1995

Analytical Model For Fluid Dynamics In A Microgravity Environment

Report presents analytical approximation methodology for providing coupled fluid-flow, heat, and mass-transfer equations in microgravity environment. Experimental engineering estimates accurate to within factor of 2 made quickly and easily, eliminating need for time-consuming and costly numerical modeling. Any proposed experiment reviewed to see how it would perform in microgravity environment. Model applied in commercial setting for preliminary design of low-Grashoff/Rayleigh-number experiments.

Naumann, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Aircraft Engine Systems

This report outlines the detailed simulation of Aircraft Turbofan Engine. The objectives were to develop a detailed flow model of a full turbofan engine that runs on parallel workstation clusters overnight and to develop an integrated system of codes for combustor design and analysis to enable significant reduction in design time and cost. The model will initially simulate the 3-D flow in the primary flow path including the flow and chemistry in the combustor, and ultimately result in a multidisciplinary model of the engine. The overnight 3-D simulation capability of the primary flow path in a complete engine will enable significant reduction in the design and development time of gas turbine engines. In addition, the NPSS (Numerical Propulsion System Simulation) multidisciplinary integration and analysis are discussed.

Veres, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS1995

Software Transition Project Retrospectives and the Application of SEL Effort Estimation Model and Boehm's COCOMO to Complex Software Transition Projects

The Multimission Image Processing Subsystem (MIPS) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has managed transitions of application software sets from one operating system and hardware platform to multiple operating systems and hardware platforms. As a part of these transitions, cost estimates were generated from the personal experience of in-house developers and managers to calculate the total effort required for such projects. Productivity measures have been collected for two such transitions, one very large and the other relatively small in terms of source lines of code. These estimates used a cost estimation model similar to the Software Engineering Laboratory (SEL) Effort Estimation Model. Experience in transitioning software within JPL MIPS have uncovered a high incidence of interface complexity. Interfaces, both internal and external to individual software applications, have contributed to software transition project complexity, and thus to scheduling difficulties and larger than anticipated design work on software to be ported.

SEL Boehm COCOMO↗

DOE OSTI2022

Developing novel electrodes with ultralow catalyst loading for high-efficiency hydrogen production in proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cells

Hydrogen plays more crucial roles for decarbonizing the planets and meeting the climate challenges because of its high energy density and zero-emission. It can be produced with proton exchange membrane electrolyzer cells (PEMECs) driven by sustainable and renewable energy resources. Although PEMECs have a number of advantages, including high purity production, quick response, and the ability to operate at high pressure facilitating the gas delivering, their performance and cost greatly hinder their commercial-scale applications. To achieve high-efficiency and cost-reduced hydrogen production in PEMECs, we proposed thin engineered liquid/gas diffusion layers (LGDLs) and associated electrodes, i.e., catalyst-coated LGDLs (CCLGDLs), over conventional porous transport layers (PTLs) and catalyst-coated membranes (CCMs). The research approaches in this project are based on material synthesis, in-situ and ex-situ characterizations, component design and treatment, numerical modeling, and cost analysis. The thin and tunable LGDLs (TT-LGDLs) and CCLGDLs were successfully developed with great performance improvement as demonstrated in lab-scale, bench-scale, and system-scale electrolyzer tests. The electrode thickness was reduced from 370 µm to less than 100 µm with simplified fabrication processes. With the catalytically enhanced Ir-based catalyst coating, the as-developed CCLGDLs with a catalyst loading of 0.34 mg Ir /cm 2 achieved a cell performance of 1.77 V at 2 A cm -2 , exhibiting the catalyst mass activity enhanced by >20 times with significant catalyst saving over conventional catalyst cell design. In-situ PEMEC characterizations, including the current distribution mapping and high-speed and multiscale visualizations, were conducted for a deeper understanding of mass transport and electrochemical reactions within an electrolyzer with LGDLs and CCLGDLs. A 2D cell model was developed and validated for the enhanced performance on TT-LGDL through reducing ohmic losses due to nonuniform hydration and water transport. Further, the cost analysis results have shown a path to move beyond equivalency and surpass costs associated with the project baseline. In this project, the design and fabrication of TT-LGDLs and CCLGDLs will contribute to the performance enhancement, manufacturing simplification, and cost reduction for PEMECs and other energy conversion devices, thus shortening their pathways towards commercialization. This project also provides a good foundation for furthering the in-situ reaction interface research.

08 HYDROGEN↗