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At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program Activities (LDRD 2021 Annual Report)

Each year, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is required to provide a report of its completed Laboratory Directed Research and Development Program (LDRD) projects to the Department of Energy (DOE) Office of Scientific and Technical Information in accordance with DOE Order 413.2C Chg1 (MinChg) dated August 2, 2018. This report provides a detailed look at the scientific and technical activities for each of the LDRD projects funded by BNL in FY 2021, in fulfillment of that requirement. In FY 2021, the BNL LDRD Program funded 68 projects, 24 of which were new starts, at a total cost of $17.1M. The investments that BNL makes in its LDRD program support the Laboratory’s strategic goals. BNL has identified six scientific initiatives that define the Laboratory’s scientific future and that will enable it to realize its overall vision. This requires simultaneous excellence in all aspects of BNL’s work – from science and operations, to external partnerships with the local, state, and national communities, and beyond. This is enabled by safe, efficient, and secure operations; by an unwavering commitment to a diverse, equitable, and inclusive environment, including workforce development, both with staff and reaching out to the community; and by a strong focus on renewed infrastructure. The six scientific initiatives are: (1) Nuclear Physics: The Electron Ion Collider, (2) Clean Energy and Climate, (3) Quantum Information Science and Technology, (4) Discovery Science Driven by the Human-AI-Facility Integration, (5) High Energy Physics: Building for Discovery, and (6) Accelerating Isotope Production: Ensuring the Nation’s Supply is Secure. The funded projects support BNL’s six scientific initiatives and priority programs as well as new areas of research and competencies at the Laboratory that are consistent with the Laboratory’s vision and mission. In total, these LDRD investments supported 80 postdoctoral researchers and graduate students in whole or in part and resulted in 136 publications and 3 awards. This Program Activities Report represents the future of BNL science; it is an impressive body of exploratory work that investigates many scientific and technical directions in support of the DOE and BNL missions.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integrated hydrological, power system and economic modelling of climate impacts on electricity demand and cost

Impacts of climate-related water stress and temperature changes can cascade through energy systems, although models have yet to capture this compounding of effects. Here, we employ a coupled water–power–economy model to capture these important interactions in a study of the exceedance of water temperature thresholds for power generation in the western United States. We find that not all reductions in reserve electricity-generation capacity result in impacts, and that when they occur, intermittent interruptions in electricity supply at critical times of the day, week and year account for much of the economic impacts. Finally, we find that impacts may be in different locations from the original water stress. Herein, we estimate that the consumption loss can be up to 0.3% annually and the drivers identified in coupled modelling can increase the average cost of electricity by up to 3%. Integrated models will be needed to capture the cascading effects of climate change through climatic, water, energy and economic systems. Webster et al. now develop a coupled hydrologic–power-production–economic model to estimate water-stress impacts on electricity cost.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the attribution of the impacts of extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change

Investigations into the role of anthropogenic climate change in extreme weather events are now starting to extend into analysis of anthropogenic impacts on non-climate (e.g. socio-economic) systems. However, care needs to be taken when making this extension, because methodological choices regarding extreme weather attribution can become crucial when considering the events’ impacts. The fraction of attributable risk (FAR) method, useful in extreme weather attribution research, has a very specific interpretation concerning a class of events, and there is potential to misinterpret results from weather event analyses as being applicable to specific events and their impact outcomes. Using two case studies of meteorological extremes and their impacts, we argue that FAR is not generally appropriate when estimating the magnitude of the anthropogenic signal behind a specific impact. Attribution assessments on impacts should always be carried out in addition to assessment of the associated meteorological event, since it cannot be assumed that the anthropogenic signal behind the weather is equivalent to the signal behind the impact because of lags and nonlinearities in the processes through which the impact system reacts to weather. Whilst there are situations where employing FAR to understand the climate change signal behind a class of impacts is useful (e.g. ‘system breaking’ events), more useful results will generally be produced if attribution questions on specific impacts are reframed to focus on changes in the impact return value and magnitude across large samples of factual and counterfactual climate model and impact simulations. We advocate for constant interdisciplinary collaboration as essential for effective and robust impact attribution assessments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

AI for Extreme Volcanic Climate Forcing and Feedback Forecasting in the 21st century

Our paradigm-shifting framework will apply machine learning and perform physical analysis of contemporary volcanoes to develop sound forecasts of extreme eruptions in the 21stcentury and their abrupt drying and cooling impacts on the warming climate. We will also bridge climate data driven regression models and earth system model output to trace teleconnections that exacerbate regional impacts such as Arctic amplification and western US droughts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

CRISPR-Cas9-mediated knockout of CYP79D1 and CYP79D2 in cassava attenuates toxic cyanogen production

Cassava (Manihot esculenta) is a starchy root crop that supports over a billion people in tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This staple, however, produces the neurotoxin cyanide and requires processing for safe consumption. Excessive consumption of insufficiently processed cassava, in combination with protein-poor diets, can have neurodegenerative impacts. This problem is further exacerbated by drought conditions which increase this toxin in the plant. To reduce cyanide levels in cassava, we used CRISPR-mediated mutagenesis to disrupt the cytochrome P450 genes CYP79D1 and CYP79D2 whose protein products catalyze the first step in cyanogenic glucoside biosynthesis. Knockout of both genes eliminated cyanide in leaves and storage roots of cassava accession 60444; the West African, farmer-preferred cultivar TME 419; and the improved variety TMS 91/02324. Although knockout of CYP79D2 alone resulted in significant reduction of cyanide, mutagenesis of CYP79D1 did not, indicating these paralogs have diverged in their function. The congruence of results across accessions indicates that our approach could readily be extended to other preferred or improved cultivars. This work demonstrates cassava genome editing for enhanced food safety and reduced processing burden, against the backdrop of a changing climate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I): Pathfinder for Satellite Capabilities and Airborne Science

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) is an existing ultraspectral infrared sounder flown on high-altitude aircraft that provides high spectral and spatial resolution measurements which continue to advance understanding of science critical for weather, climate, chemistry, and radiation applications. NAST-I provides high-spatial linear resolution equal to 13% of the aircraft altitude at nadir (i.e., 2.6 km IFOV on the ground from an aircraft altitude of 20 km), and high-spectral resolution (0.25 cm -1 ) measurements within the spectral region of 645–2700 cm -1 . The NAST-I suborbital system serves as a spaceborne instrument simulator and pathfinder for future satellite capabilities and airborne science experiments. Here we present some groundbreaking capabilities of NAST-I measurements and corresponding geophysical retrievals and their potential benefits toward improved atmospheric state and composition characterizations needed for air quality, wildfire, and other science applications.

NAST-I↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (Nast-I): Existing Technology for New Science and Application

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) is an existing ultraspectral infrared sounder flown on high-altitude aircraft that provides high spectral and spatial resolution measurements which continue to advance understanding of science critical for weather, climate, chemistry, and radiation applications. NAST-I provides high-spatial linear resolution equal to 13% of the aircraft altitude at nadir (i.e., 2.6 km IFOV on the ground from an aircraft altitude of 20 km), and high-spectral resolution (0.25 cm-1) measurements within the spectral region of 645–2700 cm-1. The NAST-I suborbital system serves as a spaceborne instrument simulator and pathfinder for future satellite capabilities and airborne science experiments. Present herein are some groundbreaking capabilities of NAST-I measurements and corresponding geophysical retrievals and their potential benefits toward improved atmospheric state and composition characterizations needed for air quality, wildfire, and other science applications and, in particular, for enhanced Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) characterization and understanding.

Remote sensor↗
DOE OSTI2023

A convection-permitting dynamically downscaled dataset over the Midwestern United States

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching effects at both the global and regional scale, but local effects are difficult to determine from coarse-resolution climate studies. Dynamical downscaling can provide insight into future climate projections on local scales. Here, we present a new dynamically downscaled dataset for Indiana and the surrounding regions. Output from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1 is downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF). Simulations are run with a 24-hr reinitialization strategy and a 12-hr spin-up window. WRF output is bias corrected to the National Centers for Environmental Protection/National Center for Atmospheric Research 40-year Reanalysis project (NCEP) using a modified quantile mapping method. Bias-corrected 2-m air temperature and accumulated precipitation are the initial focus, with additional variables planned for future releases. Regional climate change signals agree well with larger global studies, and local fine-scaled features are visible in the resulting dataset, such as urban heat islands, frontal passages, and orographic temperature gradients. This high-resolution climate dataset could be used for down-stream applications focused on impacts across the domain, such as urban planning, energy usage, water resources, agriculture and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Exascale Computing and Data Handling: Challenges and Opportunities for Weather and Climate Prediction

The emergence of exascale computing and artificial intelligence offer tremendous potential to significantly advance Earth system prediction capabilities. However, enormous challenges must be overcome to adapt models and prediction systems to use these new technologies effectively. A 2022 WMO report on exascale computing recommends “urgency in dedicating efforts and attention to disruptions associated with evolving computing technologies that will be increasingly difficult to overcome, threatening continued advancements in weather and climate prediction capabilities.” Further, the explosive growth in data from observations, model and ensemble output, and postprocessing threatens to overwhelm the ability to deliver timely, accurate, and precise information needed for decision-making. Artificial intelligence (AI) offers untapped opportunities to alter how models are developed, observations are processed, and predictions are analyzed and extracted for decision-making. Given the extraordinarily high cost of computing, growing complexity of prediction systems, and increasingly unmanageable amount of data being produced and consumed, these challenges are rapidly becoming too large for any single institution or country to handle. This paper describes key technical and budgetary challenges, identifies gaps and ways to address them, and makes a number of recommendations.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2026

Recent Weakening of the Global Radiative Feedback

Earth's climate stability, characterized by the global radiative feedback parameter (𝜆), varies decadally due to changing surface temperature patterns. Recent variations in 𝜆 are poorly understood as coordinated model simulations typically end in 2014. We apply a convolutional neural network trained on climate model simulations to observation-based surface temperature reconstructions to estimate variations in 𝜆 up to 2025. We find that 𝜆 reached a minimum (maximum stability) around the mid 1990s (𝜆 ≃ −3 Wm −2 /K), but has since weakened significantly (𝜆 ≃ −2 Wm −2 /K). We confirm these results with climate model simulations extended to 2022. The recent 𝜆 weakening is not significantly affected by El Niño Southern Oscillation or Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Attribution reveals that warming in the subtropical Northeast Pacific is an important driver of the recently weakened feedback, confirmed by targeted experiments in E3SMv2. Our approach enables near real-time monitoring of Earth's climate stability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contrasting long-term temperature trends reveal minor changes in projected potential evapotranspiration in the US Midwest

Abstract Warming generally leads to increased evaporative demand, altering the amount of water needed for growing crops. For the Midwest, some studies have suggested that reaching yield targets by 2050 will not be possible without additional precipitation or large expansion of irrigation. Here, we show that this claim is not supported by the historical summer climate trends, which indicate that the warming of daily average temperatures is largely driven by increases in minimum temperatures, while maximum temperatures have decreased. This has translated into a net decrease in vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and potential evapotranspiration (PET). With the increasing rainfall, this suggests that crop water deficits have likely become less frequent in the region despite the warming climate. By projecting these trends into 2050 and ancillary use of a crop model, we estimate minor changes in PET that would have minimal effects on corn yields (<6%) under persistence of these trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multigenic resistance to Xylella fastidiosa in wild grapes ( Vitis sps.) and its implications within a changing climate

Xylella fastidiosa is a bacterium that infects crops like grapevines, coffee, almonds, citrus and olives. There is little understanding of the genes that contribute to plant resistance, the genomic architecture of resistance, and the potential role of climate in shaping resistance, in part because major crops like grapevines (Vitis vinifera) are not resistant to the bacterium. Here we study a wild grapevine species, V. arizonica, that segregates for resistance. Using genome-wide association, we identify candidate resistance genes. Resistance-associated kmers are shared with a sister species of V. arizonica but not with more distant species, suggesting that resistance evolved more than once. Finally, resistance is climate dependent, because individuals from low (< 10 °C) temperature locations in the wettest quarter were typically susceptible to infection, likely reflecting a lack of pathogen pressure in colder climates. In fact, climate is as effective a predictor of resistance phenotypes as some genetic markers. We extend our climate observations to additional crops, predicting that increased pathogen pressure is more likely for grapevines and almonds than some other susceptible crops.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Refined Understanding of the Ice Cloud Longwave Scattering Effects in Climate Model

Abstract Because longwave (LW) absorption by greenhouse gases and clouds is more significant than the LW scattering effect by clouds, most climate models neglect cloud LW scattering to save computational costs. Ignoring cloud LW scattering directly overestimates outgoing longwave radiation (OLR). This study included ice‐cloud LW scattering treatment in the Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 and ran fully‐coupled simulations, prescribed sea surface temperature simulations, and offline radiative transfer calculations to comprehensively assess the impact of ice‐cloud LW scattering on global climate simulation. The instantaneous effect due to ice‐cloud LW scattering reduces the OLR by ∼1 W/m 2 on the global average and 2 W/m 2 on the tropical average. Tropospheric warming and high cloud amount reduction act to partially compensate for such instantaneous OLR reduction caused by the inclusion of LW scattering. When the simulation reaches the equilibrium, the surface warms by 0.66 K on average with respect to the simulation without LW scattering, with the Arctic surface temperature differences more than twice as large as that of the global mean. The impact of including LW scattering on the simulated climate change in response to 4 × CO 2 is also assessed. While including the cloud LW scattering does not significantly modify radiative forcing and total radiative feedback under such a scenario, it results in a 10% more positive cloud feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fragile Earth: AI for Climate Mitigation, Adaptation, and Environmental Justice

The Fragile EarthWorkshop is a recurring event that gathers the research community to find and explore howdata science can measure and progress climate and social issues, following the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).Fragile Earth 2022: AI for Climate Mitigation, Adaptation, and Environmental Justice is a workshop taking place as part of the ACM's KDD 2022 Conference on research in knowledge discovery and data mining and their applications. The dates for the Conference are August 14-18, 2022.

Abe, Naoki↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗
DOE OSTI2022

Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Science Applications From NAST-I IR Ultraspectral Measurements of FIREX-AQ Field Campaign

The National Airborne Sounder Testbed-Interferometer (NAST-I) suborbital system serves as a spaceborne instrument simulator and pathfinder for future satellite capabilities and airborne science experiments. The NAST-I flown on high-altitude aircraft taking measurements to advance understanding of science critical for weather, climate, chemistry, and radiation applications. NAST-I provides high-spatial linear resolution equal to 13% of the aircraft altitude at nadir (i.e., 2.6 km IFOV on the ground from an aircraft altitude of 20 km), and high-spectral resolution (0.25 cm-1) measurements within the spectral region of 645–2700 cm-1. Here we present some groundbreaking capabilities of NAST-I measurements and corresponding geophysical retrievals and their potential benefits toward improved atmospheric state and composition characterizations needed for air quality, wildfire, and other science applications, such capabilities could be also of particular importance toward enhancing characterization and understanding of the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL).

remote sensing↗