Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “changes in natural systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 829 records · Page 46
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A Transformational Natural Gas Fueled Dynamic SOFC for Data Center in-Rack Power (Final Technical Report)

Data centers consume 250TWh or 1% of global electricity use in 2019. This electricity demand is expected to grow exponentially in the future. The current data center power supply relies on electric grids with diesel engines and batteries as backup; the latter is critically important because a sudden loss of power could erase crucial data, causing catastrophic economic loss. However, such a double protection architecture is costly, inefficient and polluting. In search for better in-rack power system, fuel-cell based generators have recently emerged as a promising alternative to diesel engines and batteries because of its potential to be more cost-effective, more efficient and less polluting. Among many types of fuel cells, solid oxide fuel cells stand out to be a front runner because of their ability to directly operate on natural gas that has an existing infrastructure. However, there are several critical challenges facing SOFC generators to meet the rigorous power requirements of data centers: high cost, poor reliability and more importantly, slow response to the datacenters’ dynamic load change. The unexpected overload conditions in data centers can cause fuel starvation; the latter can initiate microcracks in the anode structure, thus jeopardizing the lifetime of the SOFC generator. The current efforts to increase transient power capabilities of traditional SOFCs and therefore protect SOFC stacks from internal damage during transient loading, rely primarily upon mathematical algorithms. One of the challenges to these control methodologies is the physical limitations of the fuel delivery system such as slow response of mass flow controllers to fast power demand.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can an Efficient Nuclear Energy Industry Still be Resilient? On the Nature of Efficiency and Resiliency in Complex Systems

At the time of writing, the nuclear industry is on the precipice of a long-hoped for, but as-yet-unrealized, “nuclear renaissance.” Nuclear power plants in the United States and around the globe are aging, emphasizing the criticality of this moment. The importance of carbon free power sources combined with advancements in nuclear technology and innovation have brought a new potential landscape. As existing reactors and utilities cope with increased economic pressure by seeking out efficiencies the push towards novel nuclear platforms like microreactors and fission batteries will only increase this quest for efficiency gains, potentially at the detriment of safety. This paper argues that the concepts of efficiency and resiliency are fundamentally linked and that the change in one necessarily affects the other. As nuclear power is known for being incredibly resilient, this dichotomy needs attention from the current wave of research towards nuclear power efficiencies. This paper argues for resiliency at any cost. We argue that this resilience-first approach is the right path for nuclear power to take in this net-zero future. The paper is laid out as follows. Section 1 introduces the economic context and resilient nature of nuclear power. Section 2 discusses efficiency, resiliency, and the struggle between the two in nuclear power. Section 3 exemplifies our argument through case studies in the aviation and manufacturing industries and extends the argument to the nuclear industry. Section 4 concludes with a discussion of the implications of this idea.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS2020

Operations Concept for Responding to Urgent Requests for NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR)

The NASA-ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar, or NISAR, mission is an Earth-mapping radar observatory to be launched from Sriharikota (India) in 2022. This mission is a collaboration between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO). This spacecraft will carry two instruments that will operate at radar wavelengths (L and Sband) and will provide data for understanding changes in the Earth’s land surface. The scientific data from this mission will revolutionize our understanding of the causes and consequences of land surface changes on Earth, ranging from Solid Earth Deformation in the form of natural hazards like earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and landslides, to ecosystem disturbances, to changes in the cryosphere (measurements of polar ice caps, ice sheets and sea ice). A nominal Reference Observation Plan, that repeats roughly every 12-24 days, developed prior to launch by the NISAR Mission Planning team, in consultation with the Science Team, will form the basis of science data collection by the payload instruments onboard the NISAR observatory after launch. Scheduling of science observations for the mission requires accounting for limited spacecraft resources like onboard data storage, downlink capacity, energy/power, thermal limits and instrument duty cycles. In addition to nominal science data collection, the project has a Level 1 requirement to respond to requests for urgent data acquisition over disaster sites (natural or anthropogenic) by scheduling new acquisitions within 24 hrs of notification and delivering science data within 5 hours of data acquisition. This capability is to be exercised on a ‘best-efforts basis’. While the definition of what constitutes an ‘urgent request’, and how such requests would be submitted to the project, is within the domain of the Science Team, the Mission System team is responsible for developing the baseline operations concept and implementation approach for responding to such requests. Given the ‘best-efforts’ nature of this requirement, a few highlevel guidelines have been developed to help guide the formulation of the operations concept, and are presented in this paper. Requests for urgent response data will be accommodated following the guiding principle of minimal to no impact on nominal science and planned engineering activities. No change in satellite orbit or attitude will be made for urgent response. Restricting response approaches to only changing the downlink and/or ground processing priority for existing observations, and adding new observations only in areas where NISAR will not be nominally imaging, allows for minimal impact on the Reference science Observation Plan. No instrument mode changes will be allowed for urgent response (except for high-priority requests), and no new observations that impact either planned science or engineering activities will be scheduled. Additionally, data requests must fit within the available project resource margins (both spacecraft and ground resources are to be evaluated). Both JPL and ISRO will be involved at various steps of the implementation, irrespective of whether the urgent request is for L-SAR (NASA instrument) or S-SAR (ISRO instrument) or a joint dataset.

Sharma, Priyanka↗
NASA NTRS1993

SUMS experiment flight results on STS-35

Calibrated pressure measurements for species with mass to charge ratios up to 50 amu/e(-) were obtained from the Shuttle Upper Atmosphere Mass Spectrometer (SUMS) experiment during reentry on the STS-35 mission. Data were collected from 180 km, when the signal rose above the background, to about 87 km, when the SUMS system automatically closed the gas inlet value. However, data above 115 km was contaminated from a source of gas emanating from pressure transducers connected in parallel to the mass spectrometer. At lower altitudes, the pressure transducer data is compared with the mass spectrometer total pressure with excellent agreement. The free-stream density in the rarefied flow flight regime is calculated using an orifice pressure coefficient model based upon direct simulation Monte Carlo results. This density, when compared with the 1976 U.S. standard atmosphere model, exhibits the wave-like nature seen on previous flights using accelerometry. In addition, selected spectra are presented at higher altitudes (320 km) showing the effects of the ingestion of gases from a forward fuselage fuel dump. An analysis of the spectra data from this event is presented to show that no significant permanent changes occurred which affected the data interpretation at lower altitudes. Further, the localized chemistry from the individual species during the onset of aerodynamic heating is examined to the extent possible for a closed source system, such as SUMS. Near the orifice entrance, a significant amount of CO2 was generated from chemical reactions with the carbon panels of the Orbiter and absorbed oxygen on the system tubing.

Blanchard, Robert C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Onslow Beach Washover Fan Morphology from 2012 to 2015

Critical military training and testing on lands along the nation’s coastal and estuarine shorelines are increasingly placed at risk because of encroachment pressures in surrounding areas, impairments due to other anthropogenic disturbances, and changes in climate and sea level. The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) intends to enhance and sustain its training and testing assets and also optimize its stewardship of natural resources through the development and application of an ecosystem-based management approach on DoD installations. To accomplish this goal, particularly for installations in estuarine/coastal environments, the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) launched the Defense Coastal/Estuarine Research Program (DCERP) as a 10-year effort at Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune (MCBCL) in North Carolina. The results of the second 5 years of the program (DCERP2) are presented in the DCERP2 Final Report.There were four overarching objectives of DCERP2. The first objective was to understand the effects of climate change impacts, including warming temperatures, variability in the hydrological cycle, storm events, and sea level rise on the coastal ecosystems at MCBCL from observations and measurements made over the 10-year program. The second objective was to understand the carbon cycle of the coastal and terrestrial ecosystems at MCBCL through a highly integrated sampling program. The third objective was to develop models, tools, and indicators to evaluate current and projected future ecosystem state changes and translate scientific findings into actionable information for installation managers. The last objective was to recommend adaptive management strategies to sustain ecosystem natural resources within the context of an active military installation.These grid files were created from data collected using a Riegl 3-D laser scanner. Millions of x, y, and z points from the F2 Washover Fan on Onslow Beach were processed using the MARS software package to define a bare-earth model. Grid files were imported into Golden Software Surfer version 19 for editing and exported from that application as .grd files. Files can be opened in Surfer or ArcMap, but the coordinate system information will be lost if opened in ArcMap. These data were collected to quantify the morphological changes that occur on a washover fan through time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Energy: Markets - Currency - Impact. Dimension of & Choices in the Technology Development Space: Preprint

This paper presents considerations of the employment of ocean wave energy to support different energy demand side applications. The key aspect in these considerations is the wave energy supported achievable positive impact and associated tangible contribution in service of common societal good and of the natural commons. The level of impact that can be delivered is dependent on both, the level of contribution of the supported energy use application, and the compatibility and unique suitability of the wave energy resource and its characteristics with the needs of the application. Thus, a variety of ocean wave energy markets, the key value indicators or "currency' in which these markets trade the value delivered and the achievable positive impact, are reflected upon. Ocean wave energy supported acquisition of high quality ocean system data across a wide spectrum of system properties is identified as a highly impactful application enabling and/or improving a comprehensive range of impactful ocean system activities. The technology development process towards these markets and desired impacts requires relevant technology development progress guidance and metrics. Going beyond technology readiness levels and technology performance levels, the notion of further technology development progress scales towards high impact and high contribution are proposed. These scales and the associated technology properties can be regarded as additional technology development dimensions to span-up the technology development space in which desired system capability and functional requirement choices and subsequent ideation, innovation, research and technology development decisions can and are to be made.

data market↗
DOE OSTI2022

Natural Hazards Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

This article is about the state of ICON principles Goldman et al. (2021), https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EO153180 in natural hazards and a discussion on the opportunities and challenges of adopting them. Natural hazards pose risks to society, infrastructure, and the environment. Hazard interactions and their cascading phenomena in space and time can further intensify the impacts. Natural hazards’ risks are expected to increase in the future due to environmental, demographic, and socioeconomic changes. It is important to quantify and effectively communicate risks to inform the design and implementation of risk mitigation and adaptation strategies. Multihazard multisector risk management poses several nontrivial challenges, including: (a) integrated risk assessment, (b) Earth system data-model fusion, (c) uncertainty quantification and communication, and (d) crossing traditional disciplinary boundaries. Here, we review these challenges, highlight current research and operational endeavors, and underscore diverse research opportunities. We emphasize the need for integrated approaches, coordinated processes, open science, and networked efforts (ICON) for multihazard multisector risk management.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Cockpit integration from a pilot's point of view

Extensive experience in both operational and engineering test flight was used to suggest straightforward changes to helicopter cockpit and control system design that would improve pilot performance in marginal and instrument flight conditions. Needed control system improvements considered include: (1) separation of yaw from cyclic force trim; (2) pedal force proportional to displacement rate; and (3) integration of engine controls in collective stick. Display improvements needed include: (1) natural cuing of yaw rate in attitude indicator; (2) collective position indication and radar altimeter placed within primary scan; and (3) omnidirectional display of full range airspeed data.

Green, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Monitoring Forest Regrowth Using a Multi-Platform Time Series

Over the past 50 years, the forests of western Washington and Oregon have been extensively harvested for timber. This has resulted in a heterogeneous mosaic of remaining mature forests, clear-cuts, new plantations, and second-growth stands that now occur in areas that formerly were dominated by extensive old-growth forests and younger forests resulting from fire disturbance. Traditionally, determination of seral stage and stand condition have been made using aerial photography and spot field observations, a methodology that is not only time- and resource-intensive, but falls short of providing current information on a regional scale. These limitations may be solved, in part, through the use of multispectral images which can cover large areas at spatial resolutions in the order of tens of meters. The use of multiple images comprising a time series potentially can be used to monitor land use (e.g. cutting and replanting), and to observe natural processes such as regeneration, maturation and phenologic change. These processes are more likely to be spectrally observed in a time series composed of images taken during different seasons over a long period of time. Therefore, for many areas, it may be necessary to use a variety of images taken with different imaging systems. A common framework for interpretation is needed that reduces topographic, atmospheric, instrumental, effects as well as differences in lighting geometry between images. The present state of remote-sensing technology in general use does not realize the full potential of the multispectral data in areas of high topographic relief. For example, the primary method for analyzing images of forested landscapes in the Northwest has been with statistical classifiers (e.g. parallelepiped, nearest-neighbor, maximum likelihood, etc.), often applied to uncalibrated multispectral data. Although this approach has produced useful information from individual images in some areas, landcover classes defined by these techniques typically are not consistent for the same scene imaged under different illumination conditions, especially in the mountainous regions. In addition, it is difficult to correct for atmospheric and instrumental differences between multiple scenes in a time series. In this paper, we present an approach for monitoring forest cutting/regrowth in a semi-mountainous portion of the southern Gifford Pinchot National Forest using a multisensor-time series composed of MSS, TM, and AVIRIS images.

Sabol, Donald E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Intraseasonal Variability in the Atmosphere-Ocean Climate System. Second Edition

Understanding and predicting the intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the ocean and atmosphere is crucial to improving long-range environmental forecasts and the reliability of climate change projections through climate models. This updated, comprehensive and authoritative second edition has a balance of observation, theory and modeling and provides a single source of reference for all those interested in this important multi-faceted natural phenomenon and its relation to major short-term climatic variations.

Lau, William K. M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Demonstrating the Error Budget for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Through Solar Irradiance Measurements

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe highaccuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as a method to determine the accuracy of climate change. A CLARREO objective is to improve the accuracy of SI-traceable, absolute calibration at infrared and reflected solar wavelengths to reach on-orbit accuracies required to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps and observe climate change at the limit of natural variability. Such an effort will also demonstrate National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) approaches for use in future spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the results of laboratory and field measurements with the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. SOLARIS allows testing and evaluation of calibration approaches, alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. Results of laboratory calibration measurements are provided to demonstrate key assumptions about instrument behavior that are needed to achieve CLARREO's climate measurement requirements. Absolute radiometric response is determined using laser-based calibration sources and applied to direct solar views for comparison with accepted solar irradiance models to demonstrate accuracy values giving confidence in the error budget for the CLARREO reflectance retrieval.

CLARREO↗
NASA NTRS2019

In-Time Non-Participant Casualty Risk Assessment to Support Onboard Decision Making for Autonomous Unmanned Aircraft

Numerous operational paradigms, technologies, and missions are emerging as newcomers to the National Airspace System (NAS) develop small Unmanned Aircraft Systems (sUAS), personal air vehicles and other Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concepts. As the list of applications expands, maintaining the safety of the current airspace system remains one of the core concerns preventing widespread commercial implementation of these concepts. Further, the risks associated with unmanned aircraft operations themselves have to be recognized and mitigated in a timely manner. Safety-critical risks include, but are not limited to, flight outside of approved airspace, unsafe proximity to people or property, critical system failures, loss-of control, and cyber-security related risks. Instead of reacting to accidents, a set of predictive and data-driven risk monitoring, assessment, and mitigation capabilities are envisioned to help capture and eliminate hazards as these systems become operational. NASA’s System-wide Safety project is performing R&D on such a safety assurance concept. As part of this concept, this paper describes an architecture that continuously monitors a diverse set of onboard and ground-based sources to estimate and predict non-participant casualty risk during flight. Timely identification of the changing nature of this risk can inform decision making processes to mitigate current and impending situations.

Ancel, Ersin↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Contact Resistance and Fin Effectiveness of Enhanced, Brazed "Dogbone" Fin and Serpentine Tube Heat Exchangers for Air Conditioning and Heat Pump Applications

The energy consumption due to air conditioning is projected to increase by 1.3 and 4.5 times by 2050 compared to 2010 for members and non-members of the Organization of Economic Coordination and Development (OECD), respectively. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions must be carefully managed to minimize their hazardous contribution to climate change. Air conditioners (AC) and heat pumps (HP) contribute with direct GHG emissions through systemic refrigerant leakage, which consequently degrades the system’s performance and therefore increases its indirect GHG emissions as well. To address this issue, the goals of new systems include minimizing leakage risk, using low global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants such as natural refrigerants, and increasing system efficiency. This paper presents part of the efforts in the development of a brazed “dogbone” fin to continuous serpentine tube heat exchanger (HX) for AC/HP applications. The main advantages of such technology are: 1) The potential to reduce 90% or more of the tube return-bends brazed joints compared to conventional tube-fin heat exchangers, thus minimizing leakage vulnerability, enabling the use of natural refrigerants like Propane and Ammonia that carry other concerning risks of flammability and toxicity ; and 2) The brazed fin to the tube joints should yield very low contact resistance. In order to quantify and estimate the impacts of contact resistance and fin effectiveness, a numerical-experimental study is investigated. The novel enhanced brazed “dog-bone” fin is compared to an equivalent pressure expanded fin. The results showed that the expanded fin has consistently greater effective heat transfer but greater contact resistance as well. Furthermore, the brazed fins have up to 20% lower pressure drop. The trade-off comparison shows that the thermal-hydraulic ratio between the two fins is equivalent for air velocities below 2m/s; for greater velocities, however, the expanded fin is favored since it has less fin efficiency penalty. For HVAC&R applications, the air velocities are typically low which makes the proposed technology competitive and a viable option in the pursuit of refrigerant leakage reduction.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Galactic Black Hole Transient H1743-322 During Outburst Decay Connections Between Timing Noise, State Transitions, And Radio Emission

Multiwavelength observations of Galactic black hole transients during outburst decay are instrumental for our understanding of the accretion geometry and the formation of outflows around black hole systems. H1743-322, a black hole transient observed intensely in X-rays and also covered in the radio band during its 2003 decay, provides clues about the changes in accretion geometry during state transitions and also the general properties of X-ray emission during the intermediate and low-hard states. In this work, we report on the evolution of spectral and temporal properties in X-rays and the flux in the radio band, with the goal of understanding the nature of state transitions observed in this source. We concentrate on the transition from the thermal dominant state to the intermediate state that occurs on a timescale of 1 day. We show that the state transition is associated with a sudden increase in power-law flux. We determine that the ratio of the power-law flux to the overall flux in the 3-25 keV band must exceed 0.6 for us to observe strong timing noise. Even after the state transition, once this ratio was below 0.6, the system transited back to the thermal dominant state for 1 day. We show that the emission from the compact radio core does not turn on during the transition from the thermal dominant state to the intermediate state but does turn on when the source reaches the low-hard state, as seen in 4U 1543-47 and GX 339-4. We find that the photon index correlates strongly with the QPO frequency and anticorrelates with the rms amplitude of variability. We also show that the variability is more likely to be associated with the power-law emission than the disk emission.

Kalemci, E.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Model-Based Systems Engineering Journey to Developing a Concept of Operations

Starting in 2017, NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) element began a systems engineering transition from traditional, document-centric development to model-centric development when defining its foundation medical systems. These foundation medical systems define a Concept of Operations (ConOps) and identify the generic requirements for a medical system based on assumptions about a generic crew and mission environments and guidance from NASA standards (e.g., Medical “Levels of Care”). By making the transition, ExMC intends to improve communication among stakeholders about foundation medical system requirements and content. In addition, this transition will enable ExMC to lower both development and crew treatment risks for future, mission-specific medical systems. ExMC followed a Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) paradigm when developing the foundation medical systems. A model-based approach provides several advantages over a traditional, document-centric approach. First, when Systems Engineers (SE) develop diagrams in a model using a standard modeling language, they produce information dense pictures that facilitate understanding much more efficiently with less room for misinterpretation than text. Second, due to the evolving nature of projects, documentation becomes out of date the minute it is published. This can result in people making decisions based on information that is no longer current, especially if they are referencing a locally-stored copy of a document. A model, on the other hand, is always up to date with the latest approved changes and information. It serves as a single point of truth. Third, a model-centric approach centralizes all important information in one place. Rather than having to flip through separate ConOps documents, design specifications, requirements specifications, and the like to coordinate information, a model captures the content in one, integrated spot. This integration makes tracing information from end-to-end easier with greater reliability. The ExMC Systems Engineering Lifecycle follows a well-defined process. ExMC Systems Engineers perform all major steps of the process, regardless of the development methodology. One of the first steps in the process is developing the ConOps that describes the operation of the system from the point of view of the users. It includes a list of the users and their needs, the goals of the medical system, key assumptions about the system, and definitions of the medical system’s operational environments. For this development effort, ExMC chose to replace the traditional text-based ConOps document with a model. While the decision to change the development workflow was not difficult, implementing the structural and organizational workflows were. It required showing ExMC’s users, most of whom are not Systems Engineers, how the information they require would be presented in the model and to gain their acceptance of this approach. This paper documents key lessons learned during the ConOps transformation by focusing on how the model represents information, the agile workflow used by SEs when developing the model and how it integrates into a project plan, how leadership influenced key users to accept the transformation, and how the users interact with the model information.

Jeffrey Robert Cohen↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model metamers reveal divergent invariances between biological and artificial neural networks

Deep neural network models of sensory systems are often proposed to learn representational transformations with invariances like those in the brain. To reveal these invariances, we generated ‘model metamers’, stimuli whose activations within a model stage are matched to those of a natural stimulus. Metamers for state-of-the-art supervised and unsupervised neural network models of vision and audition were often completely unrecognizable to humans when generated from late model stages, suggesting differences between model and human invariances. Targeted model changes improved human recognizability of model metamers but did not eliminate the overall human–model discrepancy. The human recognizability of a model’s metamers was well predicted by their recognizability by other models, suggesting that models contain idiosyncratic invariances in addition to those required by the task. Metamer recognizability dissociated from both traditional brain-based benchmarks and adversarial vulnerability, revealing a distinct failure mode of existing sensory models and providing a complementary benchmark for model assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior (Final Technical Report)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) produce clean energy by circulating fluid through hot rock deep underground and bringing that heat to the surface to generate electricity. For this process to work reliably, fluids must be able to move efficiently through networks of natural or engineered fractures in the rock. Enhancing and maintaining subsurface permeability over time is essential for sustainable energy production. However, fluid injection changes the underground temperature, pressure, rock stress, and chemistry, which can alter permeability and sometimes trigger earthquakes. Predicting these interconnected processes remains a key challenge. To address this, we combined high-temperature laboratory experiments with high-fidelity simulations to better understand how fractures in geothermal reservoirs evolve over time. Our experiments measured how fractures respond to stress, slip, slip rate, and chemical reactions under geothermal conditions. These data were integrated into coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical and earthquake (THMC+E) models tailored to the Utah FORGE site. The validated modeling framework improves predictions of reservoir performance and seismic response and helps guide operational decisions. This work reduces technical risk and strengthens the scientific foundation needed to make geothermal energy a reliable and scalable clean energy resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observational Constraints Reduce Model Spread but Not Uncertainty in Global Wetland Methane Emission Estimates

The recent rise in atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) concentrations accelerates climate change and offsets mitigation efforts. Although wetlands are the largest natural CH 4 source, estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions vary widely among approaches taken by bottom-up (BU) process-based biogeochemical models and top-down (TD) atmospheric inversion methods. Here, we integrate in situ measurements, multi-model ensembles, and a machine learning upscaling product into the International Land Model Benchmarking system to examine the relationship between wetland CH 4 emission estimates and model performance. We find that using better-performing models identified by observational constraints reduces the spread of wetland CH 4 emission estimates by 62% and 39% for BU- and TD-based approaches, respectively. However, global BU and TD CH 4 emission estimate discrepancies increased by about 15% (from 31 to 36 TgCH 4 year −1 ) when the top 20% models were used, although we consider this result moderately uncertain given the unevenly distributed global observations. Our analyses demonstrate that model performance ranking is subject to benchmark selection due to large inter-site variability, highlighting the importance of expanding coverage of benchmark sites to diverse environmental conditions. We encourage future development of wetland CH 4 models to move beyond static benchmarking and focus on evaluating site-specific and ecosystem-specific variabilities inferred from observations.

Kuang-Yu Chang↗