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NASA NTRS2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.

Aerosols↗

DOE OSTI2025

Impact of Urbanization on Convection, Lightning, and Precipitation Over the Houston Metropolitan Area: Case Study Simulation From the TRACER Campaign

This study investigates the effects of urbanization, specifically land use change and anthropogenic emissions (AE), on convection, lightning, and surface precipitation for a case of summertime sea‐breeze convection observed over the Houston metropolitan area. The unique capabilities of the NASA‐Unified Weather Research and Forecasting model allows us to conduct a series of sensitivity experiments with complex configurations, in particular including multi‐year land model spin‐up simulations, treatment of aerosols and their precursors, and explicit cloud charging and lightning. The simulation results show that urban land use primarily alters the temporal evolution of convection, lightning, and surface precipitation, leading to late afternoon thunderstorm development. The decrease in latent heat flux from the land surface caused by urbanization weakens convection in the early afternoon, while a condition suitable for convection development is maintained in the late afternoon due to less stabilization of the lower troposphere by the weaker convection development and high sensible heat flux from the surface. On the other hand, anthropogenic aerosols directly enhance convection, lightning, and surface precipitation by increasing convective updrafts due to the aerosol‐induced convective invigoration. The combined effects of urban land use and AE lead to even stronger thunderstorms in the late afternoon, mostly consistent with observations. These results indicate that urbanization increases the probability of late afternoon thunderstorms over the Houston area during the summer season. Advanced weather forecasting models that incorporate these urbanization effects might support sustainable urban planning to better mitigate the impacts of urbanization on local weather and public safety.

Iguchi, T. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (U↗

NASA NTRS1990

Inhomogeneities of stratocumulus liquid water

There is a growing body of observational evidence on inhomogeneous cloud structure, most recently from the extensive measurements of the FIRE field program. Knowledge of cloud structure is important because it strongly influences the cloud radiative properties, one of the major factors in determining the global energy balance. Current atmospheric circulation models use plane-parallel radiation, so that the liquid water in each gridbox is assumed to be uniform, which gives an unrealistically large albedo. In reality cloud liquid water occupies only a subset of each gridbox, greatly reducing the mean albedo. If future climate models are to treat the hydrological cycle in a manner consistent with energy balance, a better treatment of cloud liquid is needed. FIRE concentrated upon two cloud types of special interest: cirrus and marine stratocumulus. Cirrus tend to be high and optically thin, thus reducing the effective radiative temperature without increasing the albedo significantly, leading to an enhanced greenhouse heating. In contrast, marine stratocumulus are low and optically thick, thus producing a large increase in reflected radiation with a small change in emitted radiation, giving a net cooling which could potentially mitigate the expected greenhouse warming. The FIRE measurements in California stratocumulus during June and July of 1987 show variations in cloud liquid water on all scales. Such variations are associated with inhomogeneous entrainment, in which entrained dry air, rather than mixing uniformly with cloudy air, remains intact in blobs of all sizes, which decay only slowly by invasion of cloudy air. Two important stratocumulus observations are described, followed by a simple fractal model which reproduces these properties, and finally, the model radiative properties are discussed.

Cahalan, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance of A Real-Time Photon Counting Optical Receiver in the Presence of Emulated Channel Fading

Free-space optical communication links with terrestrial ground stations experience fading due to atmospheric scintillation and beam pointing. Fiber-coupled receiver systems experience additional fading at the interface between the fiber and free-space optics of the telescope. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) has characterized a real-time photon-counting optical ground receiver system with an atmospheric fade emulation system. The receiver system is comprised of a fiber interconnect, an array of superconducting nanowire single photon detectors (SNSPDs), and a field programmable gate array (FPGA) based receive modem. Two fiber interconnect/detector architectures have been studied. One architecture uses a 70-mode photonic lantern coupled to seven single pixel SNSPDs. The other architecture uses a 10-mode few-mode fiber (FMF) coupled to a 15-pixel SNSPD array. The receiver system complies with the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) Optical Communications High Photon Efficiency Coding and Synchronization Standard, which uses serially concatenated convolutionally coded pulse-position modulation (SCPPM). The CCSDS standard is designed for use in low photon flux missions, including the Orion Artemis-II Optical (O2O) communications demonstration. The standard utilizes a convolutional symbol interleaver which can be resized to mitigate different fades. The fade emulation system employed in this work emulates scintillation-induced, pointing-induced, and coupling-induced fading. This paper gives an overview of the real-time optical receiver system and the fade emulation system. It presents tests results which show the impact of fading on the performance on the receiver. The test results show that in the presence of channel fading, the 70-mode photonic lantern outperforms the 10-mode FMF under higher (D/r_0=9) turbulence conditions due to high fiber-coupling-induced fading and fiber coupling loss on the 10-mode FMF. When operating in lower turbulence (D/r_0=4), the 10-mode FMF outperforms the 70-mode photonic lantern. The paper also shows a larger convolutional interleaver improves the system performance as long as the receiver does not lose acquisition.

optical communications↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Performance of a real-time photon counting optical receiver in the presence of emulated channel fading

optical communications↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Anti-Fouling Coatings to Improve the Efficiency of Coal Power Plants

As the total cost of carbon to generate energy has become a global concern, operators are increasingly looking at all parts of the generation cycle to find areas where efficiency gains may be found. It has been long identified that fouling of heat exchangers is a persistent cause of up to 2.5% of global CO 2 emissions. Unfortunately, practice has also demonstrated that unless a powerful economic driver exists to encourage preemptive mitigation of fouling, there will always be a strong tendency for operators to minimize any form of intervention due to high costs and challenges in scheduling downtime. The objective of this proposed research effort was to demonstrate how existing power plants could lower their carbon emissions and significantly improve heat transfer efficiency using new surface treatment materials to control fouling in a variety of heat exchange equipment. The surface treatment material which was optimized and deployed in this effort is now known commercially as HeatX. It is a low-surface energy, water- and oil-repellent, abrasion resistant material which can be applied in-situ to a wide variety of previously worn/used/in-service substrates. Once applied, it provides a barrier against corrosion, scale deposit formation, and biofilm adhesion on the circulating water-containing tube-side. Alternatively, if applied to the tube exterior, the non-wetting nature of the surface was demonstrated to promote dropwise condensation, subsequently lowering condenser backpressure and increasing overall plant efficiency. As part of this cooperative effort, the Department of Energy’s support was crucial to de-risk and demonstrate the concept of HeatX, while validating both the performance and economic benefit in multiple pilot field studies. The HeatX material properties were optimized in this effort for full field applicability to heat exchangers and condensers, and Oceanit developed the necessary procedures and protocols to provide enough material to support extended length, multi-year demonstrations in the power generation, desalination, and refining industries, making this technology broadly applicable and ready for commercial transition. Field deployment case studies at thermal power plants have shown that the HeatX treatment can provide economic savings of up to $15,000 per day for an operator based on avoiding maintenance costs and lowering fuel usage. The complete mitigation of fouling effects can increase the efficiency of equipment by up to 7%, in a field where gains of 0.5% are generally seen as operationally significant. The HeatX treatment has also demonstrated exceptional lifetime and compatibility with a wide variety of seawater and hydrocarbon environments, further increasing both the return on investment and the effective emission reduction. Such efficiency improvements correlate to massive carbon savings. For every 1 GW of capacity, operators can see carbon emissions reductions of 300,000 tons of CO 2 per year. When looking at the bigger picture, improved condenser function across the U.S. has the potential to prevent 221.3 million tons of CO 2 emissions, equivalent to the sequestration capacity of 129 million acres of forest. If applied on a global scale, 1.26 billion metric tons of CO 2 could be averted from the atmosphere, the same amount of carbon sequestrated by 1.5 billion acres of forest annually or 262,000 wind turbines operating annually. As businesses across multiple industries take a more active role in focusing on environmental, social, and governance (ESG) solutions as part of their core business operations, HeatX will be an attractive technology for commercial investment.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

NASA NTRS2007

Space Environment (Natural and Induced)

Considerable effort and improvement have been made in the study of ionizing radiation exposure occurring in various regions of space. Satellites and spacecrafts equipped with innovative instruments are continually refining particle data and providing more accurate information on the ionizing radiation environment. The major problem in accurate spectral definition of ionizing radiation appears to be the detailed energy spectra, especially at high energies, which is important parameter for accurate radiation risk assessment. Magnitude of risks posed by exposure to radiation in future space missions is subject to the accuracies of predictive forecast of event size of SPE, GCR environment, geomagnetic fields, and atmospheric radiation environment. Although heavy ion fragmentations and interactions are adequately resolved through laboratory study and model development, improvements in fragmentation cross sections for the light nuclei produced from HZE nuclei and their laboratory validation are still required to achieve the principal goal of planetary GCR simulation at a critical exposure site. More accurate prediction procedure for ionizing radiation environment can be made with a better understanding of the solar and space physics, fulfillment of required measurements for nuclear/atomic processes, and their validation and verification with spaceflights and heavy ion accelerators experiments. It is certainly true that the continued advancements in solar and space physics combining with physical measurements will strengthen the confidence of future manned exploration of solar system. Advancements in radiobiology will surely give the meaningful radiation hazard assessments for short and long term effects, by which appropriate and effective mitigation measures can be placed to ensure that humans safely live and work in the space, anywhere, anytime.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Airborne Remote Observations of L-Band Radio Frequency Interference and Implications for Satellite Missions

Passive remote sensing of the Earth s surface and atmosphere from space has significant importance in operational and research environmental studies, in particular for the scientific understanding, monitoring and prediction of climate change and its impacts. Passive remote sensing requires the measurement of naturally occurring radiations, usually of very low power levels, which contain essential information on the physical process under investigation. As such, these sensed radio frequency bands are a unique natural resource enabling space borne passive sensing of the atmosphere and the Earth s surface that deserves adequate allocation to the Earth Exploration Satellite Service and absolute protection from interference. Unfortunately, radio frequency interference (RFI) is an increasing problem for Earth remote sensing, particularly for passive observations of natural emissions. Because these natural signals tend to be very weak, even low levels of interference received by a passive sensor may degrade the fidelity of scientific data. The characteristics of RFI (low-level interference and radar-pulse noise) are not well known because there has been no systematic surveillance, spectrum inventory or mapping of RFI. While conducting a flight experiment over central Tennessee in May 2010, RFI, a concern for any instrument operating in the passive L band frequency, was observed across 16 subbands between 1402-1427 MHz. Such a survey provides rare characterization data from which to further develop mitigation technologies as well as to identify bandwidths to avoid in future sensor formulation.

Laymon, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2017

And the Human Saves the Day or Maybe They Ruin It, The Importance of Humans in the Loop

Flying a mission in space requires a massive commitment of resources, and without the talent and commitment of the people involved in this effort we would never leave the atmosphere of Earth as safely as we have. When we use the phrase "humans in the loop", it could apply to almost any endeavor since everything starts with humans developing a concept, completing the design process, building or implementing a product and using the product to achieve a goal or purpose. Narrowing the focus to spaceflight, there are a variety of individuals involved throughout the preparations for flight and the flight itself. All of the humans involved add value and support for program success. The paper discusses the concepts of human involvement in technological programs, how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) accounts for the human in the loop for potential missions using a technique called Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) and the tradeoffs between having a human in the loop or not. Human actions can increase or decrease the overall risk via initiating events or mitigating them, thus removing the human from the loop doesn't always lowers the risk.

DeMott, Diana L.↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Multiyear Constraint on Ammonia Emissions and Deposition Within the US Corn Belt

Abstract The US Corn Belt is a global hotspot of atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ), a gas known to adversely impact the environment and human health. We combine hourly tall tower (100 m) measurements and bi‐weekly, spatially distributed, ground‐based observations from the Ammonia Monitoring Network with the US National Emissions Inventory (NEI) and WRF‐Chem simulations to constrain NH 3 emissions from April to September 2017–2019. We show that: (1) NH 3 emissions peaked from May to July and were 1.6–1.7 times the annual NEI average; (2) average growing season NH 3 emissions from agricultural lands were remarkably similar across years (3.27–3.64 nmol m −2 s −1 ), yet showed substantial episodic variability driven by meteorology and land management; (3) dry deposition was 40% of gross emissions from agricultural lands and exceeded 100% of gross emissions in natural lands. Our findings provide an important benchmark for evaluating future NH 3 emissions and mitigation efforts.

Hu, Cheng↗

DOE OSTI2021

Pollen antigens and atmospheric circulation driven seasonal respiratory viral outbreak and its implication to the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract The patterns of respiratory virus illness are expressed differently between temperate and tropical climates. Tropical outbreaks often peak in wet seasons. Temperate outbreaks typically peak during the winter. The prevailing causal hypotheses focus on sunlight, temperature and humidity variations. Yet no consistent factors have been identified to sufficiently explain seasonal virus emergence and decline at any latitude. Here we demonstrate close connections among global-scale atmospheric circulations, IgE antibody enhancement through seasonal pollen inhalation, and respiratory virus patterns at any populated latitude, with a focus on the US. Pollens emerge each Spring, and the renewed IgE titers in the population are argued to terminate each winter peak of respiratory illness. Globally circulated airborne viruses are postulated to subsequently deposit across the Southern US during lower zonal geostrophic winds each late Summer. This seasonally refreshed viral load is postulated to trigger a new influenza outbreak, once the existing IgE antibodies diminish to a critical value each Fall. Our study offers a new and consistent explanation for the seasonal diminishment of respiratory viral illnesses in temperate climates, the subdued seasonal signature in the tropics, the annually circulated virus phenotypes, and the northerly migration of influenza across the US every year. Our integrated geospatial and IgE hypothesis provides a new perspective for prediction, mitigation and prevention of the outbreak and spread of seasonal respiratory viruses including Covid-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Project Lifetime Approach to the Management of Induced Seismicity Risk at Geologic Carbon Storage Sites

The geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is one method that can help reduce atmospheric CO 2 by sequestering it into the subsurface. Large-scale deployment of geologic carbon storage, however, may be accompanied by induced seismicity. We present a project lifetime approach to address the induced seismicity risk at these geologic storage sites. This approach encompasses both technical and nontechnical stakeholder issues related to induced seismicity and spans the time period from the initial consideration phase to postclosure. These recommendations are envisioned to serve as general guidelines, setting expectations for operators, regulators, and the public. They contain a set of seven actionable focus areas, the purpose of which are to deal proactively with induced seismicity issues. Although each geologic carbon storage site will be unique and will require a custom approach, these general best practice recommendations can be used as a starting point to any site-specific plan for how to systematically evaluate, communicate about, and mitigate induced seismicity at a particular reservoir.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, and/or cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, James O.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Using Information from Rendezvous Missions For Best-Case Appraisals of Impact Damage to Planet Earth Caused By Natural Objects

The Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP), a part of NASAs Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO) has the responsibility to appraise the range of surface damage by potential asteroid impacts on land or water. If a threat is realized, the project will provide appraisals to officials empowered to make decisions on potential mitigation actions. This paper describes a scenario for assessment of surface damage when characterization of an asteroid had been accomplished by a rendezvous mission that would be conducted by the international planetary defense community. It is shown that the combination of data from ground and in-situ measurements on an asteroid provides knowledge that can be used to pin-point its impact location and predict the level of devastation it would cause. The hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC with a size of 160 to 290 m in diameter to be discussed at the PDC 2017 meeting is used as an example. In order of importance for appraising potential damage, information required is: (1) where will the surface impact occur? (2) What is the mass, shape and size of the asteroid and what is its entry state (speed and entry angle) at the 100 km atmospheric pierce point? And (3) is the asteroid a monolith or a rubble pile? If it is a rubble pile, what is its sub and interior structure? Item (1) is of first order importance to determine levels of devastation (loss of life and infrastructure damage) because it varies strongly on the impact location. Items (2) and (3) are used as input for ATAPs simulations to define the level of surface hazards: winds, overpressure, thermal exposure; all created by the deposition of energy during the objects atmospheric flight, andor cratering. Topics presented in this paper include: (i) The devastation predicted by 2017 PDCs impact based on initial observations using ATAPs risk assessment capability, (ii) How information corresponding to items (1) to (3) could be obtained from a rendezvous mission, and (iii) How information from a rendezvous mission could be used, along with that from ground observations and data from the literature, could provide input for an new risk analysis capability that is emerging from ATAPs research. It is concluded that this approach would result in appraisal with the least uncertainty possible (herein called the best-case) using simulation capabilities that are currently available or will be in the future.

Arnold, J. O.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fifty Years of Research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation: Recent Progress, Challenges, and Perspectives

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), first discovered by Madden and Julian in 1971, is a prominent tropical phenomenon with a typical period of 30–60 days and featured by a large-scale envelope of cloud clusters and rain systems moving eastward along the equator. The MJO significantly influences not only intense tropical rainstorms, such as hurricanes, but also extreme weather over the middle to high latitudes. Skillful prediction of the MJO several weeks ahead, therefore, will be greatly valuable for disaster mitigation purposes. However, many present-day climate models have great difficulty in realistically simulating the MJO for reasons that are not well understood. This article provides a comprehensive review of the recent progress in the observational, modeling, and theoretical study of the MJO, with a particular focus on the most recent decade. Several future research directions are also suggested to further advance our understanding and prediction capability of the MJO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Plant a Trillion Trees Campaign to Reduce Global Warming – Fleshing Out the Concept

The campaign to plant a trillion trees provided an easily understood approach to reduce the threat of global warming. However, focusing on trees does not consider that a maturing forest releases carbon (C) from dying trees offsetting C intake from growth of other trees, and results in only a one-time carbon storage benefit. Under sustainable management that harvests before forest growth slows down, forest C is transferred to wood products that substitute for fossil fuel (FF)- intensive products, reducing the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions with every harvest. Sustainably managed forests maintain growth by replanting (or regenerating), sustaining the C stored in products, as well as avoiding FF-intensive product emissions with every harvest. This paper addresses the question: Could planting more trees significantly reduce atmospheric CO 2 ; and if so, how? Survey data from many wood-producing mills show life cycle inventory (LCI) data on C that has been tracked through every stage of processing for many different wood products specific to each United States (USA) supply region, as well as C displacement measurements when substituting wood for FFintensive products. Results show that more and better-managed forest lands and more efficient product uses provide significant opportunities to reduce CO 2 emissions, especially in highly productive forest regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Thaw Transitions and Redox Conditions Drive Methane Oxidation in a Permafrost Peatland

Thawing permafrost, ground that has been frozen for 2 or more years, often results in wet conditions that promote the production of methane (CH 4 ). Methane is a greenhouse gas that is over 30 times more powerful than carbon dioxide at warming the atmosphere. Microorganisms called methanotrophs can consume a substantial portion of this CH 4 before it reaches the atmosphere, but the extent of this consumption is not well understood. Methanotrophs are affected by environmental conditions, such as oxygen availability, that change with permafrost thaw. We used laboratory experiments to measure how quickly methanotrophs consume CH 4 from sites within a permafrost peatland with little, intermediate, and full permafrost thaw. We found that CH 4 consumption increased as permafrost thawed and that sites transitioning between thaw stages had a different potential to consume CH 4 than intact and fully thawed sites. Methane consumption was also high in locations with low dissolved oxygen, which suggests that methanotrophs in these sites may tolerate low oxygen conditions in the field. We found that redox potential, a measurement that describes the tendency for a compound to be oxidized or reduced, was a strong predictor of CH 4 consumption in partially and fully thawed sites. Overall, these measurements highlight the potential for methanotrophs to mitigate CH 4 emissions in peatlands with thawing permafrost and provide new insights to modeling CH 4 dynamics across the full thaw gradient.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Taming the Wild West: Assessing Impacts-Relevant Climate Data Products (Abbreviated Report)

Impacts-relevant Earth system data refers to observational and ESM data that are downscaled, debiased, validated, and provisioned for use by decision-makers. Impacts-relevant Earth system data is essential for mitigation and adaptation planning across a variety of regions and sectors. A vast number of these data products have emerged in recent years, which has led to confusion among stakeholders and scientists as to the best product to use. With no standard evaluation protocol available for these products, the decision on which product to use was sometimes made because it was pragmatic rather than the best product to use. This project sought to develop foundational capabilities around impacts-relevant data products that would support more informed selection and application of these products. This work has been immensely successful, driving several academic publications and supported the development of a community of practice around impacts-relevant data products. Over the project’s three years we have addressed six tasks: First, the development of standard evaluation metrics for impacts-relevant climate data; second, the development of a novel suite of atmospheric river metrics; third, the development of novel metrics for precipitation feature analysis; fourth, the development of novel metrics for assessing co-variances between temperature and precipitation; fifth, the development of a dashboard for interactive examination of impacts-relevant climate data; and sixth, the establishment of a community of practice around impacts-relevant climate data that will continue beyond the conclusion of this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗